The break even price for Fenix appears to be around $80 per tonne. The long term forecast for iron ore prices out to 2032 is approximately $50 per tonne. Have I missed anything?
Hi MountainMan, Most long term Iron ore forecasts are generally bearish. However, almost all iron ore forecasters have under called the market consistently. We have not seen a credible long term forecast as low as US$50/t. Goldman Sachs long term forecast is US$92/t while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (notoriously cautious) forecasts a long-term iron ore price of US$68/tonne. The current price is around US$100/t. Your question may have been triggered by a September 2023 Australian Resources & Investment article titled “Iron Ore to slump to US$50 per tonne by 2032:BMI”. The article notes that BMI maintain their current year forecast (2023) at US110/t. The actual average price in 2023 was US$120/t. In fact, in November 2023, BMI INCREASED their short term and long term price forecast to US$120/t and US$80/t respectively: www.miningweekly.com/article/bmi-raises-2024-iron-ore-price-forecast-but-long-term-decline-persists-2023-11-24#:~:text=Fitch%20Solutions%20unit%20BMI%20has,country's%20non%2Dproperty%20sectors%20including You may get a more bullish insight by reading Citi’s forecast from earlier this year as reported here: www.marketindex.com.au/news/why-citi-thinks-iron-ore-prices-could-hit-ususd150-a-tonne In our experience, iron ore prices continue to outperform expectation and Fenix continues to see strong demand for our high grade products. Fenix model a long term price target for iron ore at US$80/t (out past 2030) and strongly believe that between now and 2030: 1. We will enjoy periods of higher iron ore prices as we are presently (at or above US$100/t); and 2. Fenix are transitioning the business for a lower cost, higher volume sustainable future. There is a lot of money to be made from iron ore. Regards, Investability
@@InvestabilityTV Thank you for your reply. I will adjust my general iron ore investment view according to your comprehensive forward price information.
The break even price for Fenix appears to be around $80 per tonne. The long term forecast for iron ore prices out to 2032 is approximately $50 per tonne. Have I missed anything?
Hi MountainMan,
Most long term Iron ore forecasts are generally bearish. However, almost all iron ore forecasters have under called the market consistently.
We have not seen a credible long term forecast as low as US$50/t. Goldman Sachs long term forecast is US$92/t while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (notoriously cautious) forecasts a long-term iron ore price of US$68/tonne. The current price is around US$100/t.
Your question may have been triggered by a September 2023 Australian Resources & Investment article titled “Iron Ore to slump to US$50 per tonne by 2032:BMI”. The article notes that BMI maintain their current year forecast (2023) at US110/t. The actual average price in 2023 was US$120/t.
In fact, in November 2023, BMI INCREASED their short term and long term price forecast to US$120/t and US$80/t respectively: www.miningweekly.com/article/bmi-raises-2024-iron-ore-price-forecast-but-long-term-decline-persists-2023-11-24#:~:text=Fitch%20Solutions%20unit%20BMI%20has,country's%20non%2Dproperty%20sectors%20including
You may get a more bullish insight by reading Citi’s forecast from earlier this year as reported here: www.marketindex.com.au/news/why-citi-thinks-iron-ore-prices-could-hit-ususd150-a-tonne
In our experience, iron ore prices continue to outperform expectation and Fenix continues to see strong demand for our high grade products.
Fenix model a long term price target for iron ore at US$80/t (out past 2030) and strongly believe that between now and 2030:
1. We will enjoy periods of higher iron ore prices as we are presently (at or above US$100/t); and
2. Fenix are transitioning the business for a lower cost, higher volume sustainable future.
There is a lot of money to be made from iron ore.
Regards,
Investability
@@InvestabilityTV Thank you for your reply. I will adjust my general iron ore investment view according to your comprehensive forward price information.
@@InvestabilityTV Fantastic response, thank you for sharing!