I am a helicopter pilot, employed as a chief pilot for a company in Australia. In your flying taxis chapter you reference that FAA limits pilots from doing more than 1000 flight hours / yr. This is correct. However many helicopters fly more than 1000hrs a year by having multiple pilots employed. Your overall premise of the video is true; but your math is invalid as 1000hr/yr limit does not apply to the helicopter, only the individual pilot
I'm glad I'm not the only one here with actual avaition (helicopter pilot as well) experience. I posted a similar comment before I saw yours, but I'm leaving it up because this guy and his viewers need to know to take his videos with a heavy dose of skepticism. This one was just awful.
@@electricalmayhem 100hr inspections are easily accomplished overnight. Yes, I have performed many 100hr inspections on both piston and turbine helicopters.
@@williambrasky3891 well then I guess people will continue to learn the hard way. The youth always think they know better….and then they grow up. Problem is, the youth of today are a bunch of entitled pu$$ies who start crying when they hear things they don’t like 😂
Aeronautical Engineer here who actually works on the industry. While I do agree that the industry is filled with hyped unrealistic projects, there are many economically viable projects and the operation will have better scale, as these vehicles will tend to be more simple and efficient than helicopters (at least in the future). I believe that in 10-15 years this will be very much a reality and for this reason makes total sense for companies to make this early agressive investments, to try to overcut the industry.
I like the idea of being in mortal danger as a pedestrian. I don’t even have to pay to be threatened by flying blender blades. I really hope eVTOL catch on in a big way so that they’ll have frequent downwash interactions. They don’t need to collide to be a danger to each other.
I remember back in the day when former mayor Garcetti claimed Uber would have an eVTOL service in Los Angeles by the end of 2018. The latest report expects the service up and running by 2040.
I feel like a lot of institutional investors are just buying into this because they think they can push the bag onto retail investors who won't know better and invest in what they think is the big new thing
I'm sorry, quick question. Why would the evtol be idle for 7760 hours, just because one pilot can only do 1000 hours a year? Couldn't you just have more than one pilot per evtol? Am I missing something?
AND a lot of eVTOL projects are supposed to be autonomous, making the 1000 hour pilot limit even less relevant. I can only imagine that there was a misinterpretation of what that pice of data meant
Every commercial helicopter operator will have multiple pilots per aircraft, just like Delta has more than 1 crew per airplane. The video's other points are reasonable. I follow this industry loosely so I think there will be something, but maybe 10x or 20x of the helicopter market (assuming reduced noise and operating costs enable more access and more availability). But 10x (which may be a generous assumption) is tens of thousands of aircraft a year, not even remotely close to ground vehicle production rates
The inspection and maintenance time still shouldn't lead to them being left idle for so long. While he's right that this is a bad business he is wrong on that point presumably the point was thought through properly by him or whoever writes the script.
This reminds me of an analysis a friend did for his boss years ago when he asked for help getting his vineyard to profitability (what is with rich people buying vineyards?) His boss thought the problem was he was giving away too many bottles per harvest. After analyzing the costs and prices, my friend found out it wouldn't be profitable if he sold every bottle, without any wastage or promotion, at something like double what he was selling them for currently. There was no way this could be profitable under ideal circumstances (at least at the time, and this was almost a couple decades ago, so YMMV). He eventually sold the vineyard, though he wasted a lot of money trying to prove math wrong first. LOL
You’ve probably already heard this one but I just heard it yesterday so here it goes: Q- How does a person become a millionaire by owning a vineyard? A- Buy purchasing a vineyard while they’re still a billionaire. --or something like that. I suck at telling jokes
I'm not actually worried about the noise, you usually don't hear helicopters noise, rather jet engine noises. If I remember correctly, noise level drop off as square of the distance. So you double the distance noise drop of a quarter, triple the distance it drops to a ninth. Since a person on the ground is much further from a helicopter flying at 10000 ft than a car 50 feet away on the street, noise shouldn't be an issue.
Apart from the obvious safety issues, VTOL companies are always ignoring an issue that will constantly annoy people along the flight path: noise. It's impossible to make these things as quiet as a car.
In Sao Paulo I intended to use the chopper shuttle to the airport as it was one of the few airport offering this service called Boom as I recalled. They registered my name and two hours before schedule I was told that the service no longer existed 🤓
3:22 "They can be much quieter" ... yes, quieter than a helicopter that literally ruins your hearing if you get near it without protection. If you have any experience with a small drone, a quadcopter that can maybe lift 500g, you know those things are fucking loud. Even a single "quiet" EVTOL will thoroughly fuck up the calm of any place it comes within a mile of. Let alone more than one, or getting close to landing and take off.
Instead of stupid ideas like eVTOL, we could all save time and money by just getting rid of private vehicles and massively increasing public transport.
What I love about your analyses is that you don't fall for the technocratic hype. Some ideas are pie in the sky & can only reasonably exist in science fiction
Technocratic means a political system where members are elected or appointed according to their technical expertise on the relevant subject, not whatever you meant.
Driverless trains are already a thing on some metro systems. The VIctoria Line in London has a 'driver' who controls the doors, authorises the train to go, and acts as safety backup, and it's been running like that since 1968. This century, there are plenty of totally automatic systems with no staff on the trains at all. But running a driverless train is a whole different environment to safely carrying passengers through the airspace of a city, over the heads of everyone else. Let alone replacing the yellow cab fleet with thousands.
Trains are already driverless lol. The drivers on most lines in England only control the train in the yard as they move to the main tracks… from there the driver just opens the doors and is there for emergencies really.
@@broca246 Simply not true. There are driverless trains in the UK - the DLR for example, and then there are also some automated lines where there's a driver on board, but they don't normally drive like the Victoria line I mentioned - but the vast majority, including all the mainline 'heavy rail' trains outside a couple of short routes, have drivers driving them, and no automated control.
Spac IPOs, an endorsement from Cathy Woods, and McKinsey and Company liking the idea. Nothing can go wrong. Excuse me while I buy Enron, Blockbuster, and Sears stock.
It's the Moller Skycar all over again. 🙄 But by making it an EV, you switch from a fuel that is 12kW/kg to batteries that are 1kW/kg, _dramatically_ reducing either range or carry capability.
I still don't understand the hype about battery powered vehicles, they're nowhere near as eco-friendly as we're being told. Sourcing and processing the materials for the batteries is destructive, manufacturing the batteries is destructive and ultimately all these batteries are going to end up in the dump when their service lives are up. I'm not saying traditional internal combustion-based vehicles are superior, but people need to learn that all this "green" crap is just that.
for me the hype was about the low-rev torque and lack of XIX-th century push-pull cranks and gears with metal-on-metal friction points and need for generous lubrication. modern ICE engine is a true engineering (pun warning) marvel, but it is as marvellous as 1920's streamline steam locomotives.
4 a typical car 90% of its lifetime environmental impact is the use phase, i.e. burning tons of gasoline. Factoring in t superior energy efficiency of an ev & account for the impact of the battery, the only scenario where an ev is worse is if the grid is mostly coal fired. Even a largely gas fired grid, t ev has a lower impact. In places like iceland, france or norway where t grid is vurtually zero carbon, t environmental impact is tiny compared 2 a ice powered car
Great analysis! In addition, current eVTOL designs are not as safe as helicopters. If there is total engine failure in a helicopter, it has long rotor blades which can auto-rotate for a safe landing. In contrast, current eVTOLs either use small electric propellers or ducted fans, so if some motors fail the vehicle may flip over, or fall out of the sky like a brick. If they add safety features eg. automatic parachutes, that will add more weight penalty in a system that is already very marginal, and also take away passenger carrying capacity.
But Elon loves eVTOL planes and says they are the future. Surely the futurist visionary technoking huuuge genius Emperor of Mars knows what he's talking about, right? He doesn't just say stupid shit he fantasizes about, does he?
Completely false. eVTOLs have 8 or more independent motors and can maintain flight and landing with 2 - 4 motor failures. The 1000 cells of battery also dont all fail at once. It might be economically and practically stupid but its definitely safer.
Unlike winged aircraft and helicopters, these eVTOL have zero passive safety in the event of power/engine failure. No gliding, no autogyro, and fly too low for light-craft parachute... Just turns into a rock.
They mostly have ballistic parachutes. And their electric motors and divided batteries fundamentally provide way better safety than fossil fuel engines from the get go....in theory, thus the regulatory delay.
@@SydneySewerat If it were my project, I would do it the old fashioned way, diesel electric....and battery backup. You have as much electricity and power as you need, and even if it fails you have 10-15 minutes of battery to get you to the ground. Need engine backups? Octocoptors have more than enough ability to sub out for on failed motor Of course a ballistic chute is a great idea, and I don't see any reason why the rotors can't be high instead of low on these things for natural weight below lift design with a pylon in the center with the chute.
The EVTOL craze is eerily reminiscent of the helicopter boom of the late 40's/early 50's. Then the chopper was touted as an alternative to the family car for suburbanites. Pan Am operated a helicopter link in and out of Manhattan till an accident in 1977 killed 5
the argument about pilot limits assumes there is only one pilot. if you have two pilots, the fixed cost of the vehicle is spread across the two pilots, and the availability is doubled.
Even if all of this worked, technically and economically - how do they propose to overcome bad weather and/or motion sickness? Small aircraft are much more susceptible to these two issues.
Existing Flight Corridors can not handle the Capacity promised - You can not fly over Powerplants, Schools, Hospitals, Sport Stadiums etc w/o Coordination or Permits
Why are tech companies suddenly "the transportation experts"? Flying air taxis will do little to solve ground congestion, the boring company's one operationing tunnel is more an ad for Tesla than a way to move significant traffic off surface streets, and where the heck is the hyperloop? I almost forgot how the self driving car was to be so smart it would choose the best route updated instantly. Except when cellular networks are congested or when one drives into wet concrete or plows into a firetruck.
That seems unlikely to find a large number of pilots that are willing to use up all of their hours like that, unlike drivers which are basically everywhere.
11:09 "Why would they relax these requirements?" Corporate sponsorship. In America, if rich people want to make something happen, they'll make it happen.
Hey, even us middle classers would occasionally like to skip the 90 min traffic to the airport/stadium/downtown/etc plus parking fees. And before you say "take the train," in many places, there is no train... Or the train that exists is funded at a level of service that makes it clear the local political class doesn't ride it themselves.
Good luck finding pilots. I interviewed with a couple different start ups for a pilot position. Asked for what I though was a fair salary and after not getting the jobs, found out later the company felt it was twice as much as the bean counters thinks an experience person is worth. Even later met a pilot who left a company because what was expected from them for what they were paying wasn't worth it. Same for a maintenance tech, the company doesn't understand why a certified mechanic should make a decent wage.
Um, where these companies are going they won't need pilots. And that's fine with me. Don't worry about the FAA they will start wherever the regulatory environment is more amenable to emergent technologies. (And no, I don't think eVTOL or anything should be totally free from regulation.)
If we're talking about the US, finding pilots won't be an issue. Greyhound has bus drivers, Tesla has people shelling out $10k to beta their self-driving program. If you build it, somebody will come.
If you add another pilot that's another massive fixed cost, for example Blade currently only has one crew per helicopter. Will probably be the same for eVTOLs
@@wallstreetmillennialthe fixed cost is the plane, adding another pilot increases available operating hours. Also pilots are cheap compared to the price of the aircraft!
@@wallstreetmillennial Yes, but adding another pilot no longer restricts the helicopter 1000 hours annually. So, you are getting more utility out of each helicopter, which alters the revenue projection.
The bull case assumes competition with taxis. Imagine thousands of flights everyday above a densely populated city. What could go wrong? After 2 or 3 incidents the city will have no choice but to ban them.
One fatal accident on test flights will set this all back 5 more years. Neither Joby nor Archer have enough cash to get from here to there. "Dumb" is an apt description of this investment option.
Flying taxis have always been just around the corner with new companies making the news every decade or so. I don't see anything changing just because we swap fossil fuels with battery packs. Flying will always be more energy expensive than just pushing wheels against the ground for propulsion -- therefore the assumption that it would ever be able to compete for price is unlikely. And as long as the helicopter can't land where you want to go, you won't save much time either on journeys like these, going from the airport to the city. It would make much more sense to have express train service between the center and the airport.
Even if they solve the issues around battery life/charge times /costs, and the price of eVTOLs drops dramatically, they are going to need some sort of collision avoidance system, either via ATC, or integrated into the cockpit. Otherwise having hundreds or even thousands of these things buzzing around a city is a recipe for chaos and disaster.
I agree these things will never be viable but why are you assuming you can only have one pilot per vehicle? Once one pilot hits his 1000 hours they will just swap a new pilot into the same aircraft.
I think the value prop for E-VTOL taxis are as clear as day. You charge the same as a helicopter ride but you have more landing sites because the E-VTOLs are quiter and thus will be allowed to land closer into the city, maybe on re-enforced office block roof tops or in specially built small terminals in the city centres. Also because they are much quieter than choppers they will be able to operate later into the night in city centres or near suburban areas near residential parts of towns. The use of AI will mean that flying can be done automatically and the pilot only needs to land and take off, which is much easier in a E-VTOL I would think. These would mean less stress for pilots which should increase their max flight hrs from 1000 to 3000hrs. If all the above is achieved then E-VTOLs will be very viable and will take over the short-hail air taxi market. If they use several legs to cover longer distances then the 400-500mile journey is very doable in 3-4 legs.
Most logical answer I've read.... times are changing and looking back on history nothing has stayed the same we are always evolving so I agree with you 100%....Just read an article from the faa that says they are merging with other countries in regards with how to fly and operate the evolts just like an airplane meaning runways/air tower/air traffic/pilot specifically designed just for them...only time will tell if it's safe and profitable but in the meantime it's here to stay for now
As others have said, the helicopter itself can fly as many hours as needed. The 1,000 hour limit only applies to the individual pilot. I believe the hope is that these EV Helicopters will operate without a pilot using AI, which has not been approved by the FAA for commercial use. So, if it was approved, there may be hour limits placed on the EV Helicopter since there is no pilot. It is reasonable to assume a 2,000 hour limit on the EV Helicopter that is operated by AI, which is about 5.5 hours per day. The rest of the time would be allocated for maintenance and recharging the batteries. I think physical limitations of EVs for flight and being too expensive to scale are the main problems. Like EV cars, we can talk all day about efficiency of EVs vs gas powered vehicles, but it really comes down to what is the most cost effective since most consumers are price sensitive.
The range issue is not a big deal if the E-VTOLs can be scheduled so that passengers hop on and off between several of them along a route. So you split the journey into legs. So max safe range per leg in 150miles. The total miles of the journey is say 450miles. You will then have 3 legs so that passengers and luggage (so hand carry luggage only) hop off when the E-VTOL lands and then hop on to another fully charged E-VTOL that takes the passengers to leg 2 and then the same happens from leg 2 and the final leg is taken. The nature of the E-TOL means no long runways and the aircraft can land at a small terminal and change to a fully charged aircraft very quickly @10-15min. The pilot could be the same one since the aircraft could be flight checked by a qualified ground crew of the airline. So range is not an issue. Cargo load Is an issue but the this just means more legs and if time is of the essence . For cargo that is not time critical then it could work but I admit the capacity would still be lower than a fossil fueled aircraft.
Uber is already expensive depending of location and time. With eVTOL you have to pay for a pilot not to mention being in an area that allows it with a big enough area to land. Oh let not forget safety.
I will save this as an example of future-blindness. I saw the volocopter several years ago and thought, "This needs a better battery and buildings will need heliports and the FAA needs to catch up with autonomous flying but this is the future". The better batteries are here, many buildings are ready, the FAA has rules for eVTOL's and all that is missing is rules for autonomous flying. In 10 years, batteries will give about three times the range and the rules will be in place.
The major transformative economic potential posed by EVTOLs in the next decade or two, is their potential to impact city access for residential areas in the 100 mile radius around major cities.. This is the range in which cost/mile gets really competitive due to the gliding capabilities of EVTOLS.. Consider NYC, and how ferry-access to Greenpoint supercharged gentrification and property values just a few years ago.. Same thing could very well happen to the many towns along the Hudson Valley as well as long Island, once you have a regular shuttle doing 100 mile trips with 3-4 stops.. Granted, cost/mile needs to come down generally, but it will; the performance/cost of batteries is on the same exponential growth path as it's been for decades.
Guys, Joby and volocopter did a test flight from the wall Street helipad today. This is pushed by the city economic council and mayor Adams. Volocopter is already licensed to fly into Paris during the 2024 Olympics. NYC is hoping to have commercial evtol operations by 2025. Nothing about that is unrealistic. Let's assume the total operating cost of the pad is $3m / year. One flight to JFK or EWR is supposed to be under $200. Assuming 10hrs of operation / day that's just 4 flights / hr to cover the cost. There is plenty of room to upscale. By 2030 these guys will fly autonomously and cost will go down further. It's going to happen!
1) to deal with pilot costs, just use autonomous evtols 2) to deal with heliport congestion, eject the passengers over the destination with a bungee cord, on landing they disconnect the bungee and the autonomous evtol reels in the cord you're welcome
Every Cathy Woods assumptions re always uber optimistic. If not once in a lifetime event (pandemic which cause the stocks she invest in thrive for some time), we would probably never heard about her.
Yeah these things are a LONG WAY off from viability. 1. Rich people already pay extra for corporate/first class but flight time is the same; there is a market there 2. Slow-charging is not an issue with swappable battery packs 3. They should be allowed to land on an open field at ground level and TRANSFORM into road cars for the final leg. 🎉🎉🎉 4. We'll see these things in action in the mid east first (Neom)
The vehicle will not be stable in snow, heavy rain or strong wind gusts. Helicopters aren't that great in those conditions either. This entire discussion with Ark invest is so very weird as we are talking about one heliport in one city coming from one airport. These EVtol companies are discussing making tens of thousands of these vehicles a year to earn enough profit to repay their investors. Everything about their operation will be regulated by the FAA which is just as well as they suggest increasing air traffic volume by countless flights. FAA regulations aren't in place to irritate Ark invest, they are in place for public safety. Any airborne object when disabled becomes a threat to everyone on the ground or in buildings or cars.
Yes, let's not encourage "smart" people with money to try funding so many questionable projects. Best we keep to "dumb" people boot-strapping their reinventions of the wheel and other more-certain projects. 🙄
Country guy here: Using helicopters out here is doubly absurd since we all own cars which are just as fast and a fraction the price. We have one taxi that services an area almost the size of Rhode Island
I don't know how profitable it was, but there was a helicopter service between JFK and the Pan America building up until like 1977. They had an accident due to failed maintenance that caused the Boeing dual rotor Chopper to fall off the top of the building. I think it killed five people including the guy on the Street below. Kind of a Hindenburg event but it ran for like 12 years before that.
This idea will never reach critical mass with the average commuter. It's a dumb, inefficient idea that is only practical for rich executives and government officials and some tourism applications.
I want to see rich people buy and crash these flying death traps. Remember, us regular people are smart enough not to ride a janky mini-sub controlled by a cheap logitech bluetooth controller to visit the wreckage of the Titanic while paying $250k per person.
If it can work anywhere it would be in Tokyo. Every tower in Tokyo has a helipad. For earthquake evac. They can easily be re purposed for commercial transport.
I am a helicopter pilot, employed as a chief pilot for a company in Australia. In your flying taxis chapter you reference that FAA limits pilots from doing more than 1000 flight hours / yr. This is correct. However many helicopters fly more than 1000hrs a year by having multiple pilots employed. Your overall premise of the video is true; but your math is invalid as 1000hr/yr limit does not apply to the helicopter, only the individual pilot
I wonder what the theoretical limit is when you take into account 100h inspections every week or two!
I'm glad I'm not the only one here with actual avaition (helicopter pilot as well) experience. I posted a similar comment before I saw yours, but I'm leaving it up because this guy and his viewers need to know to take his videos with a heavy dose of skepticism. This one was just awful.
@@electricalmayhem 100hr inspections are easily accomplished overnight. Yes, I have performed many 100hr inspections on both piston and turbine helicopters.
I was thinking this, why only have one pilot per vehicle? 😂
This is a major error/assumption in the video, it still doesn't change the conclusion.
You had me convinced when you said "went public with SPAC".
@LizardSporkI've heard multiple people say they can't think of anything profitable company with a sensible business model that has IPOed from a SPAC
Good to see my fellow millennials turning into cranky old realists. Folks, it’s 2050 and you’ll be catching a train.
😂😂😂
Like they say, the older you get, the smarter your parents were
Trains were a damn good idea.
@@cougar2013 I don't think that's what they say, anymore.
@@williambrasky3891 well then I guess people will continue to learn the hard way. The youth always think they know better….and then they grow up. Problem is, the youth of today are a bunch of entitled pu$$ies who start crying when they hear things they don’t like 😂
If cathie wood says its a good investment, 1000% it’s a bad investment
Not necessarily. She simply buys highly levered companies in order to get more leverage than the government allows
Exhibit A - ARKK 5 year return. Ugly.
I would mostly agree, but Cathie wood does have the occasional good investment like Tesla
@@hs5312 she still lost money as she doubled down on the way up
@@hs5312 even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Aeronautical Engineer here who actually works on the industry. While I do agree that the industry is filled with hyped unrealistic projects, there are many economically viable projects and the operation will have better scale, as these vehicles will tend to be more simple and efficient than helicopters (at least in the future). I believe that in 10-15 years this will be very much a reality and for this reason makes total sense for companies to make this early agressive investments, to try to overcut the industry.
I've always wanted to add plummeting to my death to the risks associated with taking a taxi 😁😅
EVTOLs also do not auto rotate as the do not have long enough rotor blades. Anything goes wrong. And it drops like a stone
I like the idea of being in mortal danger as a pedestrian. I don’t even have to pay to be threatened by flying blender blades.
I really hope eVTOL catch on in a big way so that they’ll have frequent downwash interactions. They don’t need to collide to be a danger to each other.
Yea any transport comes with the risk of coming to a stop very rapidly. Vertically or horizontally, it's the same force that kills you.
@@nulnoh219 Let me know how your investment does
@@nulnoh219except current transport only has 2D
I remember back in the day when former mayor Garcetti claimed Uber would have an eVTOL service in Los Angeles by the end of 2018. The latest report expects the service up and running by 2040.
Sounds like a typical lying democrat.
@@lockout125 wait until you hear about the hyperloop and landing on Mars from hyper liberal Elon Musk,
@the0ne809 don't forget underground freeways by the boring company.
@@antonSugar those are favorite. driverless cars being brought down from the streets above using some type of a mechanical platform.
Yeah, he was full of shit.
E-VTOL has all the usual techbro scam flags but I'll watch your video anyway.
Whenever you see "SPAC", run the other way.
I feel like a lot of institutional investors are just buying into this because they think they can push the bag onto retail investors who won't know better and invest in what they think is the big new thing
So many systems can be explained as wealth transfers from the low to median net worth household to the ultra-wealthy.
Yeah. I suspect that is the actual business idea of this ridiculously stupid idea.
Yes if they can get investors they can syphon off money knowing full well the business is doomed to failure.
I used to take helicopter between JFK and LaGuardia back in the 1970s. Very nice.
I'm sorry, quick question. Why would the evtol be idle for 7760 hours, just because one pilot can only do 1000 hours a year? Couldn't you just have more than one pilot per evtol? Am I missing something?
AND a lot of eVTOL projects are supposed to be autonomous, making the 1000 hour pilot limit even less relevant.
I can only imagine that there was a misinterpretation of what that pice of data meant
Every commercial helicopter operator will have multiple pilots per aircraft, just like Delta has more than 1 crew per airplane. The video's other points are reasonable. I follow this industry loosely so I think there will be something, but maybe 10x or 20x of the helicopter market (assuming reduced noise and operating costs enable more access and more availability). But 10x (which may be a generous assumption) is tens of thousands of aircraft a year, not even remotely close to ground vehicle production rates
You're forgetting about battery recharge time, regular maintenance, and mandatory pre-flight inspections.
Battery charging time? Maintenance? Helicopters do require quite a lot of Maintenance
The inspection and maintenance time still shouldn't lead to them being left idle for so long. While he's right that this is a bad business he is wrong on that point presumably the point was thought through properly by him or whoever writes the script.
This reminds me of an analysis a friend did for his boss years ago when he asked for help getting his vineyard to profitability (what is with rich people buying vineyards?) His boss thought the problem was he was giving away too many bottles per harvest. After analyzing the costs and prices, my friend found out it wouldn't be profitable if he sold every bottle, without any wastage or promotion, at something like double what he was selling them for currently. There was no way this could be profitable under ideal circumstances (at least at the time, and this was almost a couple decades ago, so YMMV). He eventually sold the vineyard, though he wasted a lot of money trying to prove math wrong first. LOL
worked for a vine distributor long time ago - it is great as a hobby. maybe a family could make a living out of a vineyard or huge industrial firms
You’ve probably already heard this one but I just heard it yesterday so here it goes:
Q- How does a person become a millionaire by owning a vineyard?
A- Buy purchasing a vineyard while they’re still a billionaire.
--or something like that. I suck at telling jokes
Just imagine the noise if these things became common! Even with magical fairy dust based batteries this would be a pretty niche market.
Magical fairy dust batteries never made it to market because people working on them kept snorting it all up. They're chasing dragons on Skid Row now.
Well, one of the few advantages of e-VTOL is that they are much more quieter than traditional rotor craft. Still has bad range and payload though.
I'm not actually worried about the noise, you usually don't hear helicopters noise, rather jet engine noises. If I remember correctly, noise level drop off as square of the distance. So you double the distance noise drop of a quarter, triple the distance it drops to a ninth. Since a person on the ground is much further from a helicopter flying at 10000 ft than a car 50 feet away on the street, noise shouldn't be an issue.
They are much quieter than modded exhaust cars or conventional motorcycles.
Worst noise than the combustion engines surrounding us?
Apart from the obvious safety issues, VTOL companies are always ignoring an issue that will constantly annoy people along the flight path: noise. It's impossible to make these things as quiet as a car.
...or as efficient as a train...
They'd probably would be restricted to fly certain paths because of those issues, which just causes congestion in the air
65 dB at 100 ft, I believe, so this is quiet… beats the medical helicopter flying q4h over my house🤓
Did you miss the part where they are electric?
@@izackom5202it's the blades that make a lot of the noise on a helicopter. You can only quiet them so much with electric motors.
In Sao Paulo I intended to use the chopper shuttle to the airport as it was one of the few airport offering this service called Boom as I recalled. They registered my name and two hours before schedule I was told that the service no longer existed 🤓
😱
LOL
3:22
"They can be much quieter" ... yes, quieter than a helicopter that literally ruins your hearing if you get near it without protection.
If you have any experience with a small drone, a quadcopter that can maybe lift 500g, you know those things are fucking loud.
Even a single "quiet" EVTOL will thoroughly fuck up the calm of any place it comes within a mile of. Let alone more than one, or getting close to landing and take off.
Instead of stupid ideas like eVTOL, we could all save time and money by just getting rid of private vehicles and massively increasing public transport.
🙌
What I love about your analyses is that you don't fall for the technocratic hype. Some ideas are pie in the sky & can only reasonably exist in science fiction
Technocratic means a political system where members are elected or appointed according to their technical expertise on the relevant subject, not whatever you meant.
The day trains go driverless will I believe that passenger drones are feasible.
Driverless trains are already a thing on some metro systems. The VIctoria Line in London has a 'driver' who controls the doors, authorises the train to go, and acts as safety backup, and it's been running like that since 1968. This century, there are plenty of totally automatic systems with no staff on the trains at all. But running a driverless train is a whole different environment to safely carrying passengers through the airspace of a city, over the heads of everyone else. Let alone replacing the yellow cab fleet with thousands.
Trains are already driverless lol. The drivers on most lines in England only control the train in the yard as they move to the main tracks… from there the driver just opens the doors and is there for emergencies really.
Dubai Metro is driverless
@@broca246 Simply not true. There are driverless trains in the UK - the DLR for example, and then there are also some automated lines where there's a driver on board, but they don't normally drive like the Victoria line I mentioned - but the vast majority, including all the mainline 'heavy rail' trains outside a couple of short routes, have drivers driving them, and no automated control.
Spac IPOs, an endorsement from Cathy Woods, and McKinsey and Company liking the idea.
Nothing can go wrong. Excuse me while I buy Enron, Blockbuster, and Sears stock.
Exactly - Spac and Cathy Woods = lose my shirt
Imagine a flying Juicero.
@@rockdinosaur8619
You're lucky if you only lose your shirt.
It's the Moller Skycar all over again. 🙄
But by making it an EV, you switch from a fuel that is 12kW/kg to batteries that are 1kW/kg, _dramatically_ reducing either range or carry capability.
Batteries don’t get lighter when they discharge. As fuel is used less weight is carried.
The Ikw/kg battery would be a miracle --work on 200W/kg (NOT Kilowatt -kw/kg ) Hydrocarbon fuel is 60 times as energetic per kilo as the best battery.
I still don't understand the hype about battery powered vehicles, they're nowhere near as eco-friendly as we're being told. Sourcing and processing the materials for the batteries is destructive, manufacturing the batteries is destructive and ultimately all these batteries are going to end up in the dump when their service lives are up. I'm not saying traditional internal combustion-based vehicles are superior, but people need to learn that all this "green" crap is just that.
for me the hype was about the low-rev torque and lack of XIX-th century push-pull cranks and gears with metal-on-metal friction points and need for generous lubrication. modern ICE engine is a true engineering (pun warning) marvel, but it is as marvellous as 1920's streamline steam locomotives.
4 a typical car 90% of its lifetime environmental impact is the use phase, i.e. burning tons of gasoline. Factoring in t superior energy efficiency of an ev & account for the impact of the battery, the only scenario where an ev is worse is if the grid is mostly coal fired. Even a largely gas fired grid, t ev has a lower impact. In places like iceland, france or norway where t grid is vurtually zero carbon, t environmental impact is tiny compared 2 a ice powered car
There is a lot of investment in companies like Li-Cycle who are recycling rare earth minerals from used batteries.
@@ytcensorhack1876nonsense 😂
@@broca246 & u got ur phd in this topic where? Remind me what r&d have u done in this field?
Wonder if they'd sell electric copters at the catalina wine mixer
Great analysis! In addition, current eVTOL designs are not as safe as helicopters. If there is total engine failure in a helicopter, it has long rotor blades which can auto-rotate for a safe landing. In contrast, current eVTOLs either use small electric propellers or ducted fans, so if some motors fail the vehicle may flip over, or fall out of the sky like a brick. If they add safety features eg. automatic parachutes, that will add more weight penalty in a system that is already very marginal, and also take away passenger carrying capacity.
But Elon loves eVTOL planes and says they are the future. Surely the futurist visionary technoking huuuge genius Emperor of Mars knows what he's talking about, right? He doesn't just say stupid shit he fantasizes about, does he?
I've always assumed those proposing flying cars hav never heard of helicopters
I do not think that heli blades will "auto rotate for a safe landing" if the engine stops the lift stops
@@JustJanitor Do one google search before you speak manchild, damn
Completely false. eVTOLs have 8 or more independent motors and can maintain flight and landing with 2 - 4 motor failures. The 1000 cells of battery also dont all fail at once. It might be economically and practically stupid but its definitely safer.
Unlike winged aircraft and helicopters, these eVTOL have zero passive safety in the event of power/engine failure. No gliding, no autogyro, and fly too low for light-craft parachute... Just turns into a rock.
They mostly have ballistic parachutes. And their electric motors and divided batteries fundamentally provide way better safety than fossil fuel engines from the get go....in theory, thus the regulatory delay.
@@SydneySewerat If it were my project, I would do it the old fashioned way, diesel electric....and battery backup. You have as much electricity and power as you need, and even if it fails you have 10-15 minutes of battery to get you to the ground. Need engine backups? Octocoptors have more than enough ability to sub out for on failed motor Of course a ballistic chute is a great idea, and I don't see any reason why the rotors can't be high instead of low on these things for natural weight below lift design with a pylon in the center with the chute.
Yes there are backup systems built into Joby Aircraft.
One of these has 36 engines.
The EVTOL craze is eerily reminiscent of the helicopter boom of the late 40's/early 50's. Then the chopper was touted as an alternative to the family car for suburbanites. Pan Am operated a helicopter link in and out of Manhattan till an accident in 1977 killed 5
Learning from history saves headaches and lost money.
Great reminder!
You could just point out that Cathie Wood is a big backer and leave it there
the argument about pilot limits assumes there is only one pilot. if you have two pilots, the fixed cost of the vehicle is spread across the two pilots, and the availability is doubled.
Even if all of this worked, technically and economically - how do they propose to overcome bad weather and/or motion sickness? Small aircraft are much more susceptible to these two issues.
Existing Flight Corridors can not handle the Capacity promised - You can not fly over Powerplants, Schools, Hospitals, Sport Stadiums etc w/o Coordination or Permits
Why are tech companies suddenly "the transportation experts"? Flying air taxis will do little to solve ground congestion, the boring company's one operationing tunnel is more an ad for Tesla than a way to move significant traffic off surface streets, and where the heck is the hyperloop? I almost forgot how the self driving car was to be so smart it would choose the best route updated instantly. Except when cellular networks are congested or when one drives into wet concrete or plows into a firetruck.
I used to take the helicopter between JFK and LaGuardia in 1970s. Worked great saved time and trouble. Big helicopters seated a few dozen passengers.
why would the eVTOL be limited to 1000 hours just because the pilot is? wouldn't multiple pilots paid per hour negate this?
That seems unlikely to find a large number of pilots that are willing to use up all of their hours like that, unlike drivers which are basically everywhere.
finbros are always trying solve problems that have already been solved.
😆
11:09 "Why would they relax these requirements?" Corporate sponsorship. In America, if rich people want to make something happen, they'll make it happen.
Hey, even us middle classers would occasionally like to skip the 90 min traffic to the airport/stadium/downtown/etc plus parking fees. And before you say "take the train," in many places, there is no train... Or the train that exists is funded at a level of service that makes it clear the local political class doesn't ride it themselves.
Good luck finding pilots. I interviewed with a couple different start ups for a pilot position. Asked for what I though was a fair salary and after not getting the jobs, found out later the company felt it was twice as much as the bean counters thinks an experience person is worth. Even later met a pilot who left a company because what was expected from them for what they were paying wasn't worth it. Same for a maintenance tech, the company doesn't understand why a certified mechanic should make a decent wage.
Um, where these companies are going they won't need pilots. And that's fine with me. Don't worry about the FAA they will start wherever the regulatory environment is more amenable to emergent technologies. (And no, I don't think eVTOL or anything should be totally free from regulation.)
If we're talking about the US, finding pilots won't be an issue. Greyhound has bus drivers, Tesla has people shelling out $10k to beta their self-driving program. If you build it, somebody will come.
It’s odd that you didn’t consider more than one pilot could be employed. The 1,000 hour restriction is irrelevant.
If you add another pilot that's another massive fixed cost, for example Blade currently only has one crew per helicopter. Will probably be the same for eVTOLs
Not as profitable to hire 3 8 hour pilots for one craft
@@wallstreetmillennialthe fixed cost is the plane, adding another pilot increases available operating hours. Also pilots are cheap compared to the price of the aircraft!
@@wallstreetmillennial Yes, but adding another pilot no longer restricts the helicopter 1000 hours annually. So, you are getting more utility out of each helicopter, which alters the revenue projection.
The bull case assumes competition with taxis. Imagine thousands of flights everyday above a densely populated city. What could go wrong? After 2 or 3 incidents the city will have no choice but to ban them.
The skyline would have as many parachutes as seagulls lol. Assuming they use ballistic parachutes.
Techoskepticism doesn't usually age well
One fatal accident on test flights will set this all back 5 more years. Neither Joby nor Archer have enough cash to get from here to there. "Dumb" is an apt description of this investment option.
Flying taxis have always been just around the corner with new companies making the news every decade or so. I don't see anything changing just because we swap fossil fuels with battery packs.
Flying will always be more energy expensive than just pushing wheels against the ground for propulsion -- therefore the assumption that it would ever be able to compete for price is unlikely. And as long as the helicopter can't land where you want to go, you won't save much time either on journeys like these, going from the airport to the city. It would make much more sense to have express train service between the center and the airport.
"McKinsey and Co. said eVTOL could be worth tens of billions of $" - every. single. time with these people.
It's like a nerf Helicopter....
3D traffic jams. Just what a city needs.
Even if they solve the issues around battery life/charge times /costs, and the price of eVTOLs drops dramatically, they are going to need some sort of collision avoidance system, either via ATC, or integrated into the cockpit. Otherwise having hundreds or even thousands of these things buzzing around a city is a recipe for chaos and disaster.
I agree these things will never be viable but why are you assuming you can only have one pilot per vehicle? Once one pilot hits his 1000 hours they will just swap a new pilot into the same aircraft.
Dumbest idea yet from Wall Street? That would be quite an accomplishment indeed. Although this one is certainly in the running
America will try everything except building decent trains
The first crash will be blasted on the news nonstop and make it even more unprofitable.
There you go. The evtol companies will need to be radical progressive darlings; no bad press.
Just fix public transit. There's a reason people dont take helicopters everywhere.
I think the value prop for E-VTOL taxis are as clear as day.
You charge the same as a helicopter ride but you have more landing sites because the E-VTOLs are quiter and thus will be allowed to land closer into the city, maybe on re-enforced office block roof tops or in specially built small terminals in the city centres.
Also because they are much quieter than choppers they will be able to operate later into the night in city centres or near suburban areas near residential parts of towns.
The use of AI will mean that flying can be done automatically and the pilot only needs to land and take off, which is much easier in a E-VTOL I would think. These would mean less stress for pilots which should increase their max flight hrs from 1000 to 3000hrs.
If all the above is achieved then E-VTOLs will be very viable and will take over the short-hail air taxi market. If they use several legs to cover longer distances then the 400-500mile journey is very doable in 3-4 legs.
Most logical answer I've read.... times are changing and looking back on history nothing has stayed the same we are always evolving so I agree with you 100%....Just read an article from the faa that says they are merging with other countries in regards with how to fly and operate the evolts just like an airplane meaning runways/air tower/air traffic/pilot specifically designed just for them...only time will tell if it's safe and profitable but in the meantime it's here to stay for now
As others have said, the helicopter itself can fly as many hours as needed. The 1,000 hour limit only applies to the individual pilot. I believe the hope is that these EV Helicopters will operate without a pilot using AI, which has not been approved by the FAA for commercial use. So, if it was approved, there may be hour limits placed on the EV Helicopter since there is no pilot. It is reasonable to assume a 2,000 hour limit on the EV Helicopter that is operated by AI, which is about 5.5 hours per day. The rest of the time would be allocated for maintenance and recharging the batteries. I think physical limitations of EVs for flight and being too expensive to scale are the main problems. Like EV cars, we can talk all day about efficiency of EVs vs gas powered vehicles, but it really comes down to what is the most cost effective since most consumers are price sensitive.
Let’s get more trains. I’m
Sick of having to have a car to do anything
We need more transportation alternatives to cars. Which is why I'm both pro-train and pro exploring eVTOL possibilities.
I love Cathie Woods Frankennumbers.... she's always such a laugh with her alien accounting. 👽 😂😂
It’s not realistic until Hemp Graphene Batteries come on board MWM
GPT6 will solve everything
😂
@@Kabodankilol
@@Kabodanki Really as it is only a path to libraries
Hey hey HEEEYY!! That's not fair... they have WAY more stupid ideas coming
BITCONNEEEEECCCT
Has anybody interviewed George Jetson for his opinion? 😊
1:19 dude literally disses all the wall street investors, simply through his transition to the video's sponsor 😂
I feel like scaling trams and such vertically is much better than flying cabs.
The range issue is not a big deal if the E-VTOLs can be scheduled so that passengers hop on and off between several of them along a route.
So you split the journey into legs. So max safe range per leg in 150miles.
The total miles of the journey is say 450miles.
You will then have 3 legs so that passengers and luggage (so hand carry luggage only) hop off when the E-VTOL lands and then hop on to another fully charged E-VTOL that takes the passengers to leg 2 and then the same happens from leg 2 and the final leg is taken.
The nature of the E-TOL means no long runways and the aircraft can land at a small terminal and change to a fully charged aircraft very quickly @10-15min. The pilot could be the same one since the aircraft could be flight checked by a qualified ground crew of the airline.
So range is not an issue.
Cargo load Is an issue but the this just means more legs and if time is of the essence . For cargo that is not time critical then it could work but I admit the capacity would still be lower than a fossil fueled aircraft.
Tell us your shorting without telling us your shorting. Lol
Aaaah America. Doing everything and inventing anything just to avoid building decent public transportation.
Drives past a car crash on the highway. "You know what... let's make this involve flying cars so nothing bad can ever happen again."
We'll be piggybacking on Spiderman before this scheme will work.
Uber is already expensive depending of location and time. With eVTOL you have to pay for a pilot not to mention being in an area that allows it with a big enough area to land. Oh let not forget safety.
SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels) are a better option than eVTOL if you want to be truly "green" versus toxic batteries
air quality matters
toxic batteries can retire to a third world country
Hopefully, they won't be controlled by an off-brand PlayStation controller.
0:24 Nice shade at the "Morgan Scamley".
I will save this as an example of future-blindness. I saw the volocopter several years ago and thought, "This needs a better battery and buildings will need heliports and the FAA needs to catch up with autonomous flying but this is the future". The better batteries are here, many buildings are ready, the FAA has rules for eVTOL's and all that is missing is rules for autonomous flying. In 10 years, batteries will give about three times the range and the rules will be in place.
I swear i hear "morgan scamly" @ 0:24 😂
The major transformative economic potential posed by EVTOLs in the next decade or two, is their potential to impact city access for residential areas in the 100 mile radius around major cities.. This is the range in which cost/mile gets really competitive due to the gliding capabilities of EVTOLS.. Consider NYC, and how ferry-access to Greenpoint supercharged gentrification and property values just a few years ago.. Same thing could very well happen to the many towns along the Hudson Valley as well as long Island, once you have a regular shuttle doing 100 mile trips with 3-4 stops.. Granted, cost/mile needs to come down generally, but it will; the performance/cost of batteries is on the same exponential growth path as it's been for decades.
Three times recently US military choppers have crashed in the last few years, killing 20. There is a huge problem here
Well this is disappointing. They could have been the new Porsche 911, which has sussessfully wiped out those with more money than skill for decades.
Self driving cars on land crash all the time. Imagine how easily a tiny mistake by a machine can kill many
Thank you. I hate those scam companies.
It would burn through electricity faster than an ice cream sitting at a porch on nice day at Australia.
“justifying stupidity” - cut to CW 😂 your best one yet
Guys, Joby and volocopter did a test flight from the wall Street helipad today. This is pushed by the city economic council and mayor Adams. Volocopter is already licensed to fly into Paris during the 2024 Olympics. NYC is hoping to have commercial evtol operations by 2025. Nothing about that is unrealistic. Let's assume the total operating cost of the pad is $3m / year. One flight to JFK or EWR is supposed to be under $200. Assuming 10hrs of operation / day that's just 4 flights / hr to cover the cost. There is plenty of room to upscale. By 2030 these guys will fly autonomously and cost will go down further. It's going to happen!
1) to deal with pilot costs, just use autonomous evtols
2) to deal with heliport congestion, eject the passengers over the destination with a bungee cord, on landing they disconnect the bungee and the autonomous evtol reels in the cord
you're welcome
I keep hearing the 1,000 hr metric but they would hire many pilots that work different days so there is always a pilot to fly like airlines
I was thinking the same thing! Pilots can take turns flying the same helicopter.
Best remedy for traffic are trains.
Good stuff as always. This is another bad idea that needed to be exposed
Give me the tactical jet suit instead.
"Cathie Wood approves". what more do you need....
The 10 trillion VC manager when I show him a private helicopter 😮
Every Cathy Woods assumptions re always uber optimistic. If not once in a lifetime event (pandemic which cause the stocks she invest in thrive for some time), we would probably never heard about her.
Yeah these things are a LONG WAY off from viability.
1. Rich people already pay extra for corporate/first class but flight time is the same; there is a market there
2. Slow-charging is not an issue with swappable battery packs
3. They should be allowed to land on an open field at ground level and TRANSFORM into road cars for the final leg. 🎉🎉🎉
4. We'll see these things in action in the mid east first (Neom)
The vehicle will not be stable in snow, heavy rain or strong wind gusts. Helicopters aren't that great in those conditions either. This entire discussion with Ark invest is so very weird as we are talking about one heliport in one city coming from one airport. These EVtol companies are discussing making tens of thousands of these vehicles a year to earn enough profit to repay their investors. Everything about their operation will be regulated by the FAA which is just as well as they suggest increasing air traffic volume by countless flights. FAA regulations aren't in place to irritate Ark invest, they are in place for public safety. Any airborne object when disabled becomes a threat to everyone on the ground or in buildings or cars.
I’m liking your new bullishness it’s good to be critical sometimes too many deluded people here
It's amazing how so many "smart" people fund so many questionable projects. Great analysis as always.
Yes, let's not encourage "smart" people with money to try funding so many questionable projects. Best we keep to "dumb" people boot-strapping their reinventions of the wheel and other more-certain projects. 🙄
Country guy here: Using helicopters out here is doubly absurd since we all own cars which are just as fast and a fraction the price. We have one taxi that services an area almost the size of Rhode Island
I don't know how profitable it was, but there was a helicopter service between JFK and the Pan America building up until like 1977. They had an accident due to failed maintenance that caused the Boeing dual rotor Chopper to fall off the top of the building. I think it killed five people including the guy on the Street below. Kind of a Hindenburg event but it ran for like 12 years before that.
eVTOL, the Segway of the sky.
Guys, think about the noise, no way this will be mainstream
You missed that a heli could have several pilots
This is why I believe the X5 is the winner a gas/electric engine 5 passenger 300 (500 km) range makes it more adaptable!
This idea will never reach critical mass with the average commuter. It's a dumb, inefficient idea that is only practical for rich executives and government officials and some tourism applications.
Electrification of many modes of transport is inevitable. The question is what form of enerygy storage will power these vehicles.
I want to see rich people buy and crash these flying death traps. Remember, us regular people are smart enough not to ride a janky mini-sub controlled by a cheap logitech bluetooth controller to visit the wreckage of the Titanic while paying $250k per person.
If it can work anywhere it would be in Tokyo. Every tower in Tokyo has a helipad. For earthquake evac. They can easily be re purposed for commercial transport.