John another excellent clear presentation. - population growth is muted but still rising this year VARIABLES- clearly there is already some reduction in the renewal of study permits and work permits for temporary residents many students and foreign - population numbers are expected to rise this year - apart from policy implementation - It is unclear what extent of the target population of foreign workers and students will cooperate? - our Southern border- there's potential for thousands hundreds of thousands of undocumented folks to walk swim drive and fly across our Southern border. (Normal refugees often get assistance with housing including often at market rent- This component is entirely uncertain) Google's says * Nearly 14,000 asylum claims have been made by international students in Canada in the first nine months of 2024, marking a nearly 14% jump on last year's figures. * Canada has been experiencing an influx of individuals crossing the Canada-United States border between ports of entry (“irregular border crossings”). - many of these individuals are making refugee claims Would be great if someone could research this in more depth and present information in non-political non-partisan people/refugee friendly Seems a lot of uncertainty for this next 3 years or so
From a risk prospective of the banks, it’s better to have a blanket appraisal and get those units closed then to have a a higher volume of buyers defaulting. This way they can mitigate defaults and house prices. It’s different if 30% of units can’t close all at once vs them defaulting over time 1-3 years.
It will interesting that’s for sure. I think a lot of people, end users at least, will be unable to move for a decade as no one will pay them what they need to get out.
This is good. More affordability is needed in terms of housing. Shoebox condo projects cratering in value? Perhaps there is an oversupply of them... Combine 2-4 small units into bigger places more suitable for people to live long term. There seems to be so many commentators commenting on the risks, rather than the opportunity in this situation. Some people (individual property owners, developers, governments, realtors) can't be as greedy but more Canadians have appropriate housing? Seems like a fair tradeoff to me. Personally I have been a homeowner since Autumn 2023, in a more reasonable market than southern Ontario. I don't want my house to increase in value faster than inflation. It was challenging for me to buy a home; I don't want it to be even harder for others. I have a housemate upstairs and a basement suite.
Love the idea of combining units and I'm all with you for having housing rise with inflation (and only inflation) forever. I will always be on the record saying that housing (along with food, healthcare, and education) should not be treated like speculative assets/stocks like they have been.
Thanks John. Interesting video. What is your take on the potential impact of the expected incoming tariffs coming from the Trump administration? I tried to pull the data from the last time during the NAFTA negotiations and it looks like it resulted in a flat market. Though I will note the tariffs are going to be higher this time around and the housing market baseline is also very different.
There’s no rush to rent the unit out, in many cases. Landlord can record a rental loss and if they’re smart they’ll use those rental losses to lower their overall taxable income, especially if they have income from stocks etc.
@@luigit9321you are correct. It is better to be in the game instead of watching from outside and complaining that price is so high. Yes the price may be high and it may be within affordability but during this time, one should work on their own self to become eligible to buy
If Canada becomes a 51st state (God forbid) home prices will crash into the ground and cause a cataclysmic depression in the real estate. The cause would be from the extremely dirt cheap houses in Buffalo Detroit and Rochester and NY state in general.
in the scenario that you for closing in an environment where appraisal valuations are reducing, would buyers be forced to take out mortgage loan insurance?
With Trudeau 's departure, will foreign buyers be allowed to buy again or still be banned ? I don't see who else could save this depressed market ......
The priority should be to get prices to reasonable levels for regular Canadian families to be able to afford a roof over their heads, not to prop up bad decisions by speculators.
After all of the talk, it's still an overvalued market. I don't see the political will to bail out investors by creating demand for something that regular Canadians are priced out of. Maybe once it drops 30% they could let foreigners buy condos only.
there is no really a housing shortage if the investors were not scooping up supply , if the Inventors would leave housing market we will have Toronto condo market situation
You took 20:54 minutes to say what should have taken two minutes top. Like so many podcasts you just love the sound of your own voice so much that you think none of us have anything else to do but listen to you.
Who the hell would buy at this point with rents dropping and thousands of units flooding the market? Also highly doubt "institutional investors" are going to be buying blocks of garbage condo units when prices are declining and numbers still don't make any sense at all for cashflow. See you at a 50% decline from here in Toronto condos.
Great analysis, thanks John.
Thanks for the feedback!
John another excellent clear presentation.
- population growth is muted but still rising this year
VARIABLES- clearly there is already some reduction in the renewal of study permits and work permits for temporary residents
many students and foreign
- population numbers are expected to rise this year
- apart from policy implementation
- It is unclear what extent of the target population of foreign workers and students will cooperate?
- our Southern border- there's potential for thousands hundreds of thousands of undocumented folks to walk swim drive and fly across our Southern border. (Normal refugees often get assistance with housing including often at market rent- This component is entirely uncertain)
Google's says
* Nearly 14,000 asylum claims have been made by international students in Canada in the first nine months of 2024, marking a nearly 14% jump on last year's figures.
* Canada has been experiencing an influx of individuals crossing the Canada-United States border between ports of entry (“irregular border crossings”).
- many of these individuals are making refugee claims
Would be great if someone could research this in more depth and present information in non-political non-partisan people/refugee friendly
Seems a lot of uncertainty for this next 3 years or so
From a risk prospective of the banks, it’s better to have a blanket appraisal and get those units closed then to have a a higher volume of buyers defaulting. This way they can mitigate defaults and house prices. It’s different if 30% of units can’t close all at once vs them defaulting over time 1-3 years.
It will interesting that’s for sure. I think a lot of people, end users at least, will be unable to move for a decade as no one will pay them what they need to get out.
Great information for renters.
This is good. More affordability is needed in terms of housing. Shoebox condo projects cratering in value? Perhaps there is an oversupply of them... Combine 2-4 small units into bigger places more suitable for people to live long term.
There seems to be so many commentators commenting on the risks, rather than the opportunity in this situation. Some people (individual property owners, developers, governments, realtors) can't be as greedy but more Canadians have appropriate housing? Seems like a fair tradeoff to me.
Personally I have been a homeowner since Autumn 2023, in a more reasonable market than southern Ontario. I don't want my house to increase in value faster than inflation. It was challenging for me to buy a home; I don't want it to be even harder for others. I have a housemate upstairs and a basement suite.
Love the idea of combining units and I'm all with you for having housing rise with inflation (and only inflation) forever. I will always be on the record saying that housing (along with food, healthcare, and education) should not be treated like speculative assets/stocks like they have been.
Agree! 🎉 the balance is needed
Great presentation!
Thanks John. Interesting video.
What is your take on the potential impact of the expected incoming tariffs coming from the Trump administration?
I tried to pull the data from the last time during the NAFTA negotiations and it looks like it resulted in a flat market. Though I will note the tariffs are going to be higher this time around and the housing market baseline is also very different.
Very hard to say if they are even going to introduce tariffs or if this is all part of his negotiating strategy like last time
Who are those 'investors/speculators 'going to rent those condos to ???
There’s no rush to rent the unit out, in many cases.
Landlord can record a rental loss and if they’re smart they’ll use those rental losses to lower their overall taxable income, especially if they have income from stocks etc.
@@luigit9321you are correct. It is better to be in the game instead of watching from outside and complaining that price is so high. Yes the price may be high and it may be within affordability but during this time, one should work on their own self to become eligible to buy
So i guess when you close if you are taking a $2500 per month loss is no biggie? Or is the banks going to come up with a solution for that as well?
Add in 2 months of vacancy to rent the unit and 250k loss the second you close. 🎉
Earned a sub.
What about US Tariffs that it might put the economy in deep recession. You don’t think this is a big risk in real estate soon?
I’d say they are likely to come. A recession will be immediate. Prices will fall slowly over a lengthy period of time.
Biggest risk..pray it does not happen
I thought I mentioned US tariffs when I touched on the economic headwinds. But it's still a big unknown so hard to dig too far into that
If Canada becomes a 51st state (God forbid) home prices will crash into the ground and cause a cataclysmic depression in the real estate. The cause would be from the extremely dirt cheap houses in Buffalo Detroit and Rochester and NY state in general.
in the scenario that you for closing in an environment where appraisal valuations are reducing, would buyers be forced to take out mortgage loan insurance?
When you mean “Irrational Exuberance” I’m guessing from the builders as well as the buyers.
Hopefully this will free up housing for single family
Homes and ACTUAL single families
With Trudeau 's departure, will foreign buyers be allowed to buy again or still be banned ? I don't see who else could save this depressed market ......
The priority should be to get prices to reasonable levels for regular Canadian families to be able to afford a roof over their heads, not to prop up bad decisions by speculators.
After all of the talk, it's still an overvalued market.
I don't see the political will to bail out investors by creating demand for something that regular Canadians are priced out of.
Maybe once it drops 30% they could let foreigners buy condos only.
6:55 industrial investors such as blackrock
This guy did same thing in LA. Wonder who's next
I thought we had a housing shortage?
We do. Just are waiting for rates to come down more. If prices were going up you would see many ppl jumping in
@@baseline6786 Lol 😂😂😂
there is no really a housing shortage if the investors were not scooping up supply , if the Inventors would leave housing market we will have Toronto condo market situation
Lol amazing what the government did !!!
Good
Top 5! How about just 1, tariffs will cause half a million job losses and shave 40% off real estate values.
These shoebox condos are worth 200k max an until the prices fall to this there will be high vacancy
Big Short 2
$1200 sq ft? You very generous John.
Haha, a nice newly built condo in downtown Toronto will hit $1,200 psf
You took 20:54 minutes to say what should have taken two minutes top. Like so many podcasts you just love the sound of your own voice so much that you think none of us have anything else to do but listen to you.
Very true could condense this down to max 10 min
🙈🙉🙊😱🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 Track record= crystal ball pump and dump
Nobody cares lose everything so the young people can have a turn
Buy now as prices will surge in 2026 due to low rate
The most "challenging economic headwind" closest to Toronto is Olivia Chow and all of the people that supported her.
Who the hell would buy at this point with rents dropping and thousands of units flooding the market? Also highly doubt "institutional investors" are going to be buying blocks of garbage condo units when prices are declining and numbers still don't make any sense at all for cashflow. See you at a 50% decline from here in Toronto condos.