OPEC had rules saying the amount each member could sell would be based upon the proven reserves. Saudi wanted to sell more oil so it had to "prove" it had a lot more oil in reserve but they also decided it would be a national secret. That is why the amount suddenly went up.
@@roystondaniel2849 They kinda are, Saudi Aramco may want to go public, so they got these dudes from DeGolyer and MacNaughton to verify. For now it seems they agree with the original estimates, but it's not like I have all the details on what data they got independently, what are they relying on the Saudis for. Not to mention any foul play that may be in taking place. The posted video comes somewhat one dimensional, without even trying to post arguments of the other side, but it is, what it is.
Yeah exactly, so they are all pretty much lying about how much oil they really have. Having said that I am sure the OPEC+ have way more oil than any else. Europe is deleted, China and other East Asian countries rely on imports and the US is just pumping enough for itself possibly at the bottom of the barrell.
"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I ride a Mercedes, my son rides a Land Rover, and my grandson is going to ride a Land Rover…but my great-grandson is going to have to ride a camel again." - Sheikh Rashid, founder of Dubai.
I think he ever said those words, even if he said he was pessimistic about future.. but god UAE has transferred into more then oil producing nation it's a tourist hub , and coming to Saudi Arabia, oh god they got mecca and madina.. every muslim(nearly 2 billion) would want to visit those places once in life time... They are safe for sure..
Because in the meantime, the biggest user - US stopped needing Saudi oil and became an exporter. Other countries still have vast untapped reserves (Venezuela/Russia). Its not supply - its demand. KSA is still the cheapest per barrel producer and natural gas demand growth is rising while oil is flat or falling (albeit at a slow rate). The biggest oil consumer is now transport - electrify much of Europe/US/Japan/China and the demand falls even faster. Few use oil to make electricity and these are the largest car markets.
I worked for Aramco in the 80's. We forecast 30 years of production. Saudi has pumped all the reserves we knew about. We had horizontal and precision drilling but we didn't have fracking (we did use steam and water but I wasn't involved) and we had a reservoir management system running on a mainframe. My belief is that Aramco would only sell shares if they believe that the reserves are running out.
Look, folks, let me tell you, nobody knows oil reserves better than me. Believe me, I worked for Aramco in the 80s, and I saw things that nobody else saw. We were forecastin', we were drillin', we were doin' it all. We had this incredible reservoir management system runnin' on a mainframe. It was like nothin' you've ever seen before, believe me. But here's the thing, okay? Saudi has been pumpin' those reserves like there's no tomorrow. They've been goin' at it, day and night. And let me tell ya, we knew about those reserves. We had 'em all figured out. But now, they're runnin' low, believe me. They're runnin' low. And that's why, folks, Aramco is sellin' shares. They know, just like I know, that when the reserves are runnin' out, you gotta cash in. It's like sellin' those Trump steaks before they go bad. Aramco ain't doin' this for fun, okay? They're doin' it 'cause they're smart, they're business-minded. They know the game. So, mark my words, when Aramco starts sellin' those shares, it means one thing and one thing only: the reserves are runnin' out. And I'll tell ya, nobody knows reserves better than me. Nobody. So, don't let 'em fool ya with all that fancy talk. They're sellin' 'cause they're runnin' low, and they want to get out while the gettin's good. It's as simple as that, folks.
@@choigold5094 Yup or India will be a superpower in 5 years whilst still having hundreds of millions of citizens even in 2022 living in crippling poverty.
its the experts job to report on issues and then its the governments job to resolve the issue, the fact that it didnt happen means everyone simply did their job. to boil down your comment everything you are saying is you are above 60 years old. ok congratulations with that.
Since the 80s technology has changed that allows oil to be recovered that was not accounted as recoverable oil reserves. The Oil Sands in Canada have well over 1 trillion barrels of oil but oly 150 billion barrels are able to be recourved.
I was wondering about this sort of thing. The term fraking comss to mind. A tech they didnt have some time ago and it allows access to different pockets of natural gas. Iirc. Why wouldnt there be some advancements in getting oil out of the ground?
Not true I work as a geologist at Saudi Aramco. In the past decade we found so many new fields with huge reserves. In hafuf or even near Qassim. From 2019 we were asked to stop searching for new onse For political reasons. Final word : Saudi Arabia is a big country there are oil where ever we drill. I wish we had th same in my country
It's important to understand that estimates of recoverable oil are based on the technology available at the time. Over the past 15-20 years, horizontal drilling, precision drilling and fracking have allowed for the recovery of far more oil and gas than what was available prior to 2005. Fracking is not possible nor worthwhile in every location, either.
I dont believe the hyped news stories about a fracking revolution. This technology was used in the 1950s. The graph of oil and gas output from fracking is far too extreme to be sustained in the US. The wells peak fast and deplete rapidly and are fairly high cost. The frackers don't seem to be so keen on expanding output now .The weaknesses probably explain why conventional oil fields were preferred by the oil majors
Oil in the ground does not suddenly run out, like a bottle would. As an oil well nears depletion, its output peaks and starts declining. This is also true for the output in an oil field, and generally for a nation as well. These are all reversible with improved technology - USA output peaked in the 70s, before recovering due to fracking. The fact that SA keeps their output stable suggests they are not yet peaked. Even if they peak tomorrow, or we see that they actually peaked a few years ago and managed to cover it up, this still means they have many decades of lower output.
Yes but is the potential for Fracking not very dependent on local condition?. So fracking requires a lot of water, for instance, so it would be tricky in a desert environment.
could not agree more....this guy is using estimates based on 1930s and 1970s technology saying "it doesn't;t add up",,,,,of course it doesn't....completely backwards
When an oil field reaches declining pressure (half the reserve), they simply pump sea water into the reserve in order to increase pressure. That is how SA has been maintaining production for the past decade. In the oil peak graphic, SA has artificially generated a plateau , it will most likely (more than rise) decrease production in the near future.
I would recommend getting your peer review your video with a petroleum engineer. While It is difficult to know the trust level of Saudi's published reserves, the logic and reasoning in this video are full of flow and naive.
I quit half way into the video. Never once is the possibility raised that the Saudis found new oil reserves through improved seismology technology or any others.
In the early years of the oil industry, recovery of 5% was considered the rule of thumb. But over the years, as technology advances, recovery rate improved to 15%, to 30% and now with enhanced oil recovery, it could reach up to 50%.
The presumption is that fracking tech can unlock way more expensive oil reserves and while that is true, the cost is higher and that only works if credit is cheap to keep opening up new wells while the price remains high to recover the cost and inflation stays low or acceptable. KSA does some limited fracking Saudi Arabia. As we can see from Europe, its natural gas to run industry and heat homes and run gas turbines to make electricity thats the vice grip. Cut transport fuel use and you cut oil demand instantly. Higher airfuel costs does not impact most economies (bar tourism dependent island nations), bunker oil remains the shipping fuel and it only has one real customer - shipping. Plastics has always been oils backup customer but we are seeing early use of non oil plastic (or no plastic) and higher energy costs make plastic using customers look at alternatives. If we take US fracking firms at present - they have the high oil price (while the war continues in Ukraine) but rising credit costs/inflation and Wall st wants its money back not promises
Whats needed is chemicals, water and a known bedrock and low water tables. Droughts and water scarcity cuts water availability. Chems have a nasity tendency to backfire/injure workers and resurface and climate change means droughts and intense rainfall and all that water can join up with your injecting. Alternatives like C02 injecting has merits but C02 can often just seep back up. If fracking worked in offshore rigs, we would have seen it happen at scale considering the cost of initial well development and existing infrastructure . Fracking also needs repeated well development and that means lots of regular cheap capex cash up front.
And it all comes with a cost. -own pressure -gas lift -pumps -water injection - water flooding -gas injection -tenside flooding -steam flooding -flooding with viscosity enhancer and what not.
@@stephendoherty8291 Americans start squealing at $5 Gas, how will they take to paying the amounts needed to unlock all this 'more expensive oil'? A series of intensifying demand-destructive recessions was my prediction.
@@nickoutram6939 they wouldn’t. We started seeing demand destruction occurring at the $5 a gallon level. There’s a big chunk of the American population that wouldn’t be able to afford the price levels needed for the higher cost oil deposits. Until the lower cost oil is used up it’s not going to be feasible for the higher price oil extraction. Even then there would be a big shift in mass behavior in the usage of gasoline and oil products in the U.S. and possibly other countries as well
Oil reserves go up and down depending on if it is profitable to actually sell it, since the oil embargo oil prices skyrocketed and therefore what was earlier considered unprofitable to be refined was suddenly profitable and hence added to the reserves, Saudi Arabia has one of most cheapest costs to refine oil per barrel if i remember correctly it was around 8$ per barrel so therefore if oil prices keep going up so will their reserves (up to a certain point obviously)
No , that is true for usa as the the prices go up it will be profitable for USA to sell oil, USA still own the largest oil reserves still, but they stopped mining it few decades back and just siting on it for the Saudi reserves to run out and prices rose so that they can sell their oil. So rising prices are only going to profit USA.
25% of the exportable oil comes from SA and another 25% comes from Russia. Another interesting fact, in the last 22 years half the oil ever produced was consumed. It would appear we are reaching the end of exponential growth and have a math problem, "you cannot have continued growth in population and you can't have continued growth in the consumption of resources."
Some things I didn't see you touch on include technology advancing, and the political climate behind the oil production of Saudi Arabia. Part of the jump may be due to a new method of extraction or refinement, with less consideration of the environmental consequences of the extraction methods, meaning they can draw the wells more deeply than they were able to in the early days. There is also pressures by OPEC and other agencies as well. I would only assume that the oil extraction and processing technology has only advanced, possibly at a faster rate than is allowed to elsewhere.
This video ignored 2 major factors: estimation could be inaccurate & there are way improved technology in extracting the oil. Anyone who worked in an oil industry knows this information. Also the video failed at explaining "why they're lying" because it doesn't makes much sense to lie if you want to keep the prices high. And moving from oil as a source for economic growth is always a better solution than staying the same. Everyone know the Oil will deplete one day, developing economy away from it is the right move because that takes alot of time.
The video explains why you would play the reservs up, especially when going public with Saudi Aramco. The 50% spike after the Americans left is reason enough to question the numbers. The prices are made by supply and demand, not future availability.
I tottaly agree that this video presented only one side of the argument, without even touching at least some of the explanations and evidence for the data posted by the Saudies. But to be fair they tried to make argument of why lie, based on that SA are using their reserves as a card to get slighly better recognition as a serious player on the international scene. I would also point out that the Saudi goverment, may be somewhat reluctant to tell its own citizens, that things may get worse in 10 years.
The question is - how better is the technology to get oil? I mean - is there other countries that got upraise of oil reserves since the 80s? How often the old estimates where wrong? And finally - when your whole existence is based on an export of commodity - to lie about how much you have of it is a good tactic to keep yourself in power. Specially if you have no other options.
The amount of oil physically present in the ground does not increase. But they could discover more is down there than previously known with better exploration. And more importantly, if price increases and technology improvements make it profitable to extract more of the pie, they can count more of it. For example, you know there's 100 barrels in the ground, but only 50 can be profitably extracted, your reserves are only 50 barrels. If price increases means that you can profitably extraxr 60 barrels, your reserves have now increased by 10 barrels.
So, if oils rising price increases reserves due to economic viability, where are the drops in reserves due to oils falling price making them uneconomically viable?
Enhanced recovery is a factor. One has to differeneciate between reserves and resources. Reserves are economically recoverable resources. Given the advances in oil recovery technologies, sustained high prices and capital investment timelines, it is perfectly imaginable that KSA increased its reserves.
@@Kamamura2 and what’s wrong with the physical numbers of Saudi crude production? If they’re lying you would have seen that they can’t maintain the production numbers they are delivering for the past 35+ years. It’s funny how a lot in the west believe the reserve numbers claimed by some countries ie Venezuela while they are not producing anything physically that correlates to these claims, all while scrutinizing Saudi numbers.
One other factor is shale oil, easily said saudi’s eastern border holds a very large amount of undiscovered shale oil just for the fact that now is not the time that saudi needs it, bahrain which is located right on the eastern coast of saudi announced a very large discovery and its very likely that under saudi’s side of the border the rest of the reserve
Nonsense. I have a friend in the oil business. He works there and in other Arab countries. We had a conversation about this very thing about 5 years ago. I was saying that we used to be subjected to the "oil is going to run out' stuff in the 70s. He said it is absolute nonsense. They are floating on the stuff. There is so much they can't keep up with it and more is being discovered every day. Plus in North America we are sitting on probably the biggest deposit in the world and it isn't even being used yet. On top of that the shale reserves particularly in Canada are virtually limitless. There is also a school of thought that the earth actually reproduces oil and it is not from primeval vegetation, that stems from Russia but it is a fairly widespread thought. We are not going to run out of oil anytime soon. The problem is supply is manipulated to keep prices high not a lack of resources.
very true because if the company say the reason they sell at high price was due to low supplies then it could be convenience for them and the public can't blame them or sue the. Where as if they just say they wanted more profit then the public would be mad and will sue them creating unwanted bad media around them, thus damaging their reputation and businesses.
Bulldrops. I doupt you have know anyone in the business since no expert ever said that "oil is going to run out' stuff in the 70s". The concept developed in the 70s by the geophysicist King Hubbert is called Hubbert peak. It means that as the pressure decreases the oil production will eventually reach a maximum and start decreasing as well.
Plus demand for oil is already falling and should crater over the next 10-15 years. Even in the worst case "only a decade left," demand for oil could drop by more than Saudi production by the time they run low.
@@srfrg9707 'Bulldrops' yourself. I know a lot of people in the oil industry. I'll bet you know nobody. In the 70s it was always we are going to run out. A stupid scare to whip everyone into a panic. It was also "there is an ice age coming". There are your bulldrops right there. As for the rest of your post I was not talking about a well coming to the end of its life. I was talking about the abundance of oil in general. We are not running out.
The late Matt Simmons wrote a book about this in the early 2000s called Twilight in the Desert. He took whatever publicly available data he could find to make the argument that SA was on it's way down in oil production soon. I wonder what he would say if he were still around.
Any authoritarian nation should be inherently distrusted when it comes to statistics. It's like the study of light emitted into space by countries and how it correlated with economic improvement. Russia and China's light growth lagged behind their stated data when compared to western countries.
There was a forum called “The Oil Drum” . There was one post about Saudi oil where one person was discussing this, and in particular why all the wells are on one side, and some are already sucking water. BTW, the well is balanced with clean water to maintain pressure.
Venezuela's oil is "Heavy" to "Extra Heavy Crude." This makes it difficult slurp up from the ground. It is also high in Sulphur i.e. "Sour." The raw crude also has to be blended with lighter oils to facilitate processing. A refinery has to be modified to handle this so the market for this is actually a bit restricted.
Venezuela is a very big Country like every country some oil is heavy some is light this is a myth by their competitors the reality is Venezuela is full of oil and is not heavy at all some is light some is heavy Same as Saudi ...
@@pablo-oq8is Venezuela needs 10 years of heavy investment to recover pre-communism levels of extraction, the question is, who is going to put 10 years of investment in a dictatorial communism country?
If they are truly running out in a decade it should show on their production out put. Like algeria. Recouvrable oil should increase with technological advancement even from "depleted" fields without even discovering anything new. Main issue is that they aren't running out of oil, they are running out of cheap oil.
@@aykuno25romer77 They reached their peak production around 2008 1.4m barrel a day, then slowly declined to 1m a day per covid. Plus their local consumption is quite high, it is even about running out oil for them, they might not even be able to export any by 2030. Also during the algerian civil war in the 90s they suffered from not investing in their fields that's also catching up to them.
@@dexterbrown9681 Correction: they are still recovering from the Algerian civil war regarding oil infrastructure investments. I am tired of the Algerian corrupt leadership constantly BLAMING Morocco for their own sh-t!!! Whenever people revolt against their government, or complain of inflation, currency being wrecked etc. etc. They magically invent a scenario to blame Morocco! I can't wait for this trashy government to be democratically overthrown (Tunesia style)
Lets be honest here ....our integrity and accuracy over production, or availability, yield or supply are often conflicting and variable ...and therefore often very questionable and problematic... Especially in valued commodities that are carefully controlled and guarded....especially where and when supply, demand and huge potentials profits (and loss) are involved .
I had watched a video a while back about how we underestimate the oil we have. Which lead to headlines stating we only have X number of decades worth of oil and it will all run out. When I’m reality we fast forward and are living comfortably with increased demand of oil and still have projections that give us more decades. It’s the science and technology improving that increases our efficiency in extracting oil. This is also a point we need to take into account. Also I believe that even couple decades from now on Saudi will be making a little less but still a sizeable about of money from under developed countries while developed and developing countries will have shifted significantly to electricity.
you are correct. a big flaw in the reasoning by those that claim there is x amount of oil left, is that they are starting with static numbers and then projecting them out over decades. yet the industry's tech advancements means those numbers are dynamic, and must be altered every year as improvements are implemented in everything from mining to refining.
The demand also increases, both from countries becoming more industrialized like China and India and countries that are industrialized having more children or immigration to increase population. Getting more oil is a crapshoot as to what will be developed, price, etc. The increase in human demand for energy in general is a guaranteed increase.
@@BlGDaddyRob getting oil isn't a crapshoot, it's a highly developed industry. finding oil sources, developing them into productive sites is something the industry has more than a century of experience doing. it also has a guaranteed increase since oil tech advances every year.
Running out of oil is not the important point here, it's peak production. As pointed out in many of the comments below, reserve revisions are common place in the oil patch. But reserve revisions do not help a "peaked" field. Prudhoe Bay is a great example. The original recoverable number was 10B bbls, it's past that now and there is probably another 2B bbls to be had from the play. It peaked in the late 80's at around 1.5M bbls/d, and today produces around 300K bbls/d. They have thrown every enhanced recovery method in the book at the field, to no avail. Production continues to decline, regardless of continued upward reserve revisions. Aramco has announced an increase of their capex to drive total "sustainable production to 13M bbls/d by 2027 "Saudi Aramco will keep raising capital expenditure until the mid-2020s as part of its strategy to raise oil production capacity to 12.3 million barrels per day by 2025 and to 13 million b/d by 2027, the company's top executive said. "We are progressing very well in our increase of capacity," Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on a media call Sunday after announcing second-quarter results. Nasser said the capacity increase from the present level of 12 million b/d would be gradual, with maximum sustainable capacity rising to 12.3 million b/d in 2025, 12.7 million in 2026 and 13 million b/d by 2027. To support the capacity hikes, among other developments, Aramco is allocating capex to the tune of $40 billion-$50 billion this year, which will increase from 2023 until 2025, Nasser said. "There will be an increase year on year to meet our growth, not only in oil - in oil and gas, and hydrogen, crude to chemicals," he said. Capex rose 25% to $9.4 billion in the second quarter and by 8% to $16.9 billion during the first half of 2022, compared to the same periods in 2021, Aramco announced on the earnings call."
New technologies mean more oil can be recovered from previously known reserves, such as sysmic imaging, horizontal drilling, fracking, pumping down chemicals to force more oil out
It requires American technologies that SA doesn't posess. There are oil shale fields all over the world but only the US has the investment money coupled with the technical know how to extract it and make a profit. There's no shortage of oil, but it's hard to get to.
One of the issues of being dependent on foreign expertise is that it is hard to keep this information secret. This has been an open secret among the oil community for many years now.
6:30 your argument against them increasing production is wrong. even 0.1% of mismatch between supply and demand can change oil prices by 10%. during covid, oil demand reduced by 5-10% and prices went negative when opec refused to decrease production. Doubling oil production would basically have the same effect, plus other OPEC countries don't let each other change production that easily anyways
This world is rapidly passing away and I hope that you repent and take time to change before all out disaster occurs! Belief in messiah alone is not enough to grant you salvation - Matthew 7:21-23, John 3:3, John 3:36 (ESV is the best translation for John 3:36) if you believed in Messiah you would be following His commands as best as you could. If you are not a follower of Messiah I would highly recommend becoming one. Call on the name of Jesus and pray for Him to intervene in your life - Revelation 3:20. Contemplate how the Roman Empire fulfilled the role of the beast from the sea in Revelation 13 over the course of 1260+ years. Revelation 17 confirms that the beast is in fact Rome. From this we can conclude that A) Jesus is the Son of God and can predict the future or make it happen, B) The world leaders/nations/governments etc have been conspiring together for the last 3000+ years going back to Babylon and before, C) History as we know it is fake. You don't really need to speculate once you start a relationship with God. Can't get a response from God? Fasting can help increase your perception and prayer can help initiate events. God will ignore you if your prayer does not align with His purpose (James 4:3) or if you are approaching Him when "unclean" (Isaiah 1:15, Isaiah 59:2, Micah 3:4). Stop eating food sacrificed to idols (McDonald's, Wendy's etc) stop glorifying yourself on social media or making other images of yourself (Second Commandment), stop gossiping about other people, stop watching obscene content etc. Have a blessed day!
From my reading there was a trusted independent audit of proven oil reserves in 2019 which largely confirmed Saudi estimates. Far from a fan of Saudi Arabia but I think their estimates are largely accurate
they underestimate their oil reserves actually, in 2007 they said Aramco oil field can only produce 7 million barrels per day, now with just little infrastructure improvement Aramco is producing 12 million barrels per day.
GPUs have enabled finding resources right below our feet that were previously unknown. Obviously I have no idea, but I imagine advances in technology are outpacing a gradual yearly increase in demand for crude oil.
Fracking means oil that before could not be recovered can be processed. Oil wells that are considered to have run out really have not run out but have reserves that are not easily accessible but fracking has changed all of that.
@@thomasgolds4585 after countless decades of the same tactic applied .. we are facing "peak oil" for something like a century now .. constantly used to push the oil price a bit .. you should be able to see a pattern .. and tbh .. (what i do NOT think) even if saudi oil ran out .. they're BY FAR not the only supplier and there are very huge fields not even tapped yet, i.e. in venezuela, around the krimea, in the chinese waters, and many more .. it wouldn't be the end of the world .. just bad for saudi arabia
@@danielverlander5025 water injection is used to 'push' more hydrocarbons to the pumps, while fracking is intended to fracture the shale rocks, releasing the hydrocarbons
@@danielverlander5025 Fracking involves tunneling boreholes through rocks by fracturing them using sand, gas and water. They can actually do horizontal drilling meaning then can drill down away from rocks and then drill sideways under rock profiles. Meaning both oil and gas that was before considered unreachable is now easily accessible. Robotics and new radar systems mean they are getting better and better at spotting the stuff. There is probably a whole layer of oil and gas just waiting to be exploited in the not so distant future.
working in saudi arabia for 15 years now,i can assure you there is still a lot of oil reserved being discoved every year,and it is always on public knowledge.nice content though
There are some new discoveries eg the Abraq al-Toloul oil field, plus a couple of gas fields (Hadabat al Hajara, and Shadun)... the claimed volumes are all sketchy, and none come close to the older giant fields like Ghawar... which has been providing oil for over 70 years. Keep believing that propaganda though, bro.
@@BatCaveOz i would never believe in anything you will say bro,your not even here in saudi arabia,and you know nothing at all about whats going on in here🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Some incresse in reserves are legitimate due to changing technology that makes more oil accessable, such as pumping sea water into fields to increese pressure. Also the main reason to overstate reserves is to incresse leverage in OPEC itself, as the allocation of production is based on reserves, we saw reserve inflation in all OPEC nations right at the same time and then freezes in thouse numbers, effecticly OPEC members decided on a truce and to freeze the allocation numbers by freezing their reserved numbers.
@@martilix4470 demand for energy overall increases every time a human is born, but yes I agree it would be possible to offset that with a higher increase in other energy sources. However, weve been moving towards renewables for decades now and oil usage(worldwide) is still increasing, and there is no guarantee that government policies might change to reduce renewable use in the near future. Its a balancing act that hasn't flipped yet toward demand reducing, though it very well might with the green incentives in the "anti inflation" act, the US at least is already trending down a little bit, but I dont know how much of that was the wars in the 2000s slowing down or covid which also temporarily caused a big hit.
This world is rapidly passing away and I hope that you repent and take time to change before all out disaster occurs! Belief in messiah alone is not enough to grant you salvation - Matthew 7:21-23, John 3:3, John 3:36 (ESV is the best translation for John 3:36) if you believed in Messiah you would be following His commands as best as you could. If you are not a follower of Messiah I would highly recommend becoming one. Call on the name of Jesus and pray for Him to intervene in your life - Revelation 3:20. Contemplate how the Roman Empire fulfilled the role of the beast from the sea in Revelation 13 over the course of 1260+ years. Revelation 17 confirms that the beast is in fact Rome. From this we can conclude that A) Jesus is the Son of God and can predict the future or make it happen, B) The world leaders/nations/governments etc have been conspiring together for the last 3000+ years going back to Babylon and before, C) History as we know it is fake. You don't really need to speculate once you start a relationship with God. Can't get a response from God? Fasting can help increase your perception and prayer can help initiate events. God will ignore you if your prayer does not align with His purpose (James 4:3) or if you are approaching Him when "unclean" (Isaiah 1:15, Isaiah 59:2, Micah 3:4). Stop eating food sacrificed to idols (McDonald's, Wendy's etc) stop glorifying yourself on social media or making other images of yourself (Second Commandment), stop gossiping about other people, stop watching obscene content etc. Have a blessed day!
They also said Nigerian oil would be finished by 2017 but it still has. You can never predict when natural resources will exhaust, they are always forming.
Lmao it takes millions of years to form and it mostly goes underwater. The tectonic plates just shifted them to some places around the world. Mostly in the Middle East. But you are right to say it will take a long long time to dry up.
Yes I agree with Disposabull I remember as a kid during the formation of OPEC that the status of each country was based on their oil reserves. I think UAE also had a bit of a jump in reserves to also increase their position at the table.
The term proven reserves evolves with time. When oil was first discovered essentially the way you got it is you stuck a bucket in and pulled up oil from the puddle on the surface. Over time our methods have gotten much more sophisticated to include drilling then deep Drilling then angle Drilling and then fracking. And our definition of provable Reserve has broadened to include oil recoverable under all of these methods. That's why across the world a proven reserves have steadily gone up for the past 50 years. So it is entirely possible that advances in drilling fracking Etc have in effect increased the amount of recoverable oil in Saudi Arabia. Of course it's also possible that they're lying. But when you consider that every other country in the world has taking advantage of every technology possible in order to increase their proven Reserves I think it's reasonable to conclude that saudi's reserves have gone up along with everyone else. Then again maybe I'm just a disinformation-bot from russia. Who can say right?
The reason for the change in reserves is the same as how the Americans found oil in Dammam 7. Just dig a bit deeper and utilize better technology to get what’s down there out
Imagine...suddenly there is an announcement that all the oil reserves are depleted or too difficult to extract. Imagine the uproar and anarchy. The government and oil merchants had made contract to lie to their people so that the economy keeps running.
There will be no announcement because there will be no warning. The production is maintained by water injection. A technique similar to fracking : They inject sea water in the oil slick. As a result the pressure is maintained and the production of oil is not reduced. Until the day they see dirty sea water coming out of the derrick. And dirty sea water does not sell so well I have been told. What was you point? Imagine the uproar and anarchy. Yes. I can imagine that.
@@srfrg9707 Oh... I was unaware of that technique... I will definitely check it out... My point was governments can lie to people to earn profits... We have seen it in history and even happened on a contemporary basis... And yes this will result in anarchy and chaos... Imagine you just bought your dream car thinking the petrol will be there forever and then suddenly news come that it's over or very less quantity is remaining...
@@robocop5543 The announcement will be like : "Huuu... Sorry everyone. Arabs have no oil left. The remaining producers by decreasing order of reserves are Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Yes, all the villains. But fear not. We do have Greta Thunberg."
In my child life i remember we have been taught by experts we have worth of 70 years of oils. In any case these days people wants detail just take a move. While people in the past didn't need that much of details and numbers to make a move.....
@@naddarr1 by that reasoning we can't trust any data, so the oil may last for 2 days as well as 500 years more. You either accept the data or avoid making predictions altogether. Or produce your own data.
Oil is a finite resource...regardless if they have less than 10 years or decades more worth of supply, it will run out. Before running out, we will face an era of peak oil, the time when oil production have reach the max and starting to decline while demand steadily increases. Be ready for that era because the transition will be very painful for those who are unprepared.
Please just read about Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD), Smart Well Completion (SWC) and Horizontal Thrust Boring (HTB) and you'll understand how the proven reserves are climbing up instead of going down. A "smart" well produces on average 40% more oil than conventional wells, and that alone will dismiss your claims. There are so many fields discovered left and right, and all new fields are shut-in for future development. I think that the current oil reserves estimations are quite conservative compared to the reality!
This lines up with what a lot of research that's says most non renewable energy sources will really start to wane after 2050 and be too expensive to retrieve by 2070-2080
Buddy, oil reserves are not calculated like you would calculate grain reserves. Your understanding of petroleum reservoir engineering is, well, sketchy, no pun intended.
People say Saudi Arabia can just transition to tourism don't understand one thing: location. The whole reason in the first place that people come for tourism is business that many global politicians, brokers, and businessmen MUST come there to do business. And if you think all these multi millionaires and billionaires will come to Saudi Arabia for no reason, you don't follow how businessmen value their time. And there's one thing to guarantee: they're not going to be able to maintain these extremely expensive skyscrapers (that have to be given a foundation in SAND), extremely expensive water projects that exist in the middle of the desert, and stupidly decadent projects like their indoor ski projects will not survive their largest export being pulled like a plug from a bath tub.
@@kalebgonzales4009 I think they have. Every year they hosting millions of pilgrimage from all around the world. Where do they throw the waste if they didnt have sewer. Using tank to suck every septic tank is inneficient,specially when the road to the area is filled with people
@@kalebgonzales4009 like any other "modern" people...they just wanna look good from the outside. So make over their landscape is priority,that's where the money go. Meanwhile they put aside the supporting facilities,cause it doesnt seen in the surface. Beside with that many desert,they think people can just go outside and poop on the desert then burry it like a cat 😂
Irrelevant as due to global warming the whole area will become uninhabitable by 2050 - so diversification is pointless no one can live in 50 degrees Celsius
All of NW Saudi Arabia is full of enormous oil reserves they haven't even started to drill for, and that came from American Exxon oil field engineer Jim Caldwell who was there in the 90's and confirmed it. He also said it's the lightest, sweetest crude oil yet discovered and there's easily 300 years worth of extraction there, but to date it's still untapped. No, if Saudi is lying about anything it's not overestimating, it's way understating. There's a reason America prefers to buy oil rather than produce it's own, which is someday when/if Saudi Arabia runs out, America can then revert back to its own reserves while the rest of the world scrambles to replace the loss.
Exactly. People here while about us being "dependent" on Saudi oil when the reality is we are simply saving our own. If anybody is the "dependent" one, it's Saudi Arabia. It's a one trick pony.
an Arabian wisdom says: “If you can't pick grapes, say it's bitter” So we are on the top of the world, and oil is god gift, and it won’t run out Long live The kingdom 🇸🇦
As a Saudi I do know how much oil discoveries are being made over here and they are massive, I am also aware that our current oil barrel production per month is 10.44 mill and the max production capacity is 12 mill and that it will be increased to 13 mill by 2027. I also understand basic economics and that the supply and demand control the price of an item hence the need not to overflood the market with oil and the creation of OPEC and OPEC+ to control the world supply of oil. Am also aware about basic common sense which says that you shouldn't help anyone that talks shit about you unless they make up for it. Saudi people are aware that an economy relying on one material is not sustainable long term hence the country diversification of income. Saudi people are also aware that the technologies need to go green hence the country plans to be the #1 world green energy producer. The Saudi country as a whole understand the significance of going completely carbon free hence the goal to do so by 2060. Saudi people are also aware that Dubai a nearby country found success in tourism so why not just copy it? We're both the same culturally and values wise yet both countries are unique and got a healthy rivalry going on that keeps pushing both of em toward a better future. Am also aware that lying is not a part of our culture nor our religion so don't mix us up with whatever environment you live in because the world is vast and the people are different and that is the true beauty of living in a vast world. All this is reflecting positively on the Saudi economy. the results can be seen by the fact that Saudi Arabia recently ranked #1 among the G20 countries when it comes to the "GDP recovery from the coronavirus pandemic" and we the people like all what's going on. I could keep writing this forever.
"All this is reflecting positively on the Saudi economy. the results can be seen by the fact that Saudi Arabia recently ranked #1 among the G20 countries when it comes to the "GDP recovery from the coronavirus pandemic", literally just reflects oil price rises after covid.
I’m from Dubai Saudi revenues reached new peaks this year because of oil revenue. Saudi will fail because you have so many cultural and societal problems. Most of your population is completely unaware of the Saudi economic situation, thinking that they live their current life because of the blessings of the monarchs. Not understanding that the whole country wouldn’t exist without the oil. And another thing to note is that Saudis are terrible at taking criticism, and that’s why they will never change. I only wish your country the best. However, you guys have a heap of insurmountable problems that aren’t being addressed or even acknowledged.
The point you are blatantly missing is that the Americans had literally no interest in telling the Saudis, let alone the rest of the world how much oil was there in the first place so that they can plunder in peace, secondly...even if they wanted to, they could only produce in relation to the demand back in the days so, no...they couldn't just overproduce to make more money if there was no one to buy and use the oil!
Before watching this video, I have to say why would we imagine oil reserve estimations are done by the rulers of the oil rich countries instead of the engineers and geologists they hire and the CEOs and executives of oil companies? The premise is weak at best. It's conspiracy thinking. However, I am open to the possibility of oil reserves of one country running out soonish. I also think it doesn't matter too much, because we are going to have a major revolution in energy and that includes probably a huge collapse in demand for oil when non fossil fuel transportation becomes economically cheaper than ICE vehicles. It will also happen in the next decade.
Agree regarding the transition away from fossil fuels. In fact, there is some good news coming out of China recently. Chins has been the biggest auto market for many years. And the latest figures coming out of China suggest that 50% of all their new car sales is now new energy vehicles (EVs and Hybrids). And the transition is only going to pick up speed!
@@ChinaSongsCollection Yes, I recently heard that statistic. 50% ! It's great news. And American and European car makers are scrambling to sell cars there as well. But the electric car makers, especially Tesla are picking up the majority of sales. It's an amazing development. I think a lot of American citizens probably can't imagine just how important the Chinese market is and they will be surprised when Chinese cars sell worldwide, cutting down the market share of today's huge leaders like Toyota and VW.
The interesting thing is that the pivot to renewables is decreasing demand. Over the next 30 to 50 years petroleum demand will fade to essentially nothing. They have seen this coming and the old prince was trying to move their economy from oil.
True, as more renewable energy sources come online, it's going to reduce how much oil and gas is needed for those countries and with everything that is going on in Ukraine and the EU, it's very likely that the EU countries are going to ramp up renewable energy production a lot more over the next decade with the aim of producing most of its energy internally. The pace of change is always dependent on need, before Putin used oil and gas as a political weapon, the EU and many countries around the world could afford to foot drag on renewable energy, now it looks like that is changing where energy security is becoming a real issue and that's very likely doing to reduce the need for fossil fuels a lot sooner than it would have been, especially in Europe and as they do it, others will follow just to stay competitive. Putin's aggressive might have wiped out a decade or more of the fossil industry which is trillions being wiped out over the coming decades for those countries and the funny thing is, countries that buy a lot of oil and gas from external sources and they in time produce a lot of their energy internally by other means would stand to save billions per years which could go to other social programs whereas countries that depend on that fossil energy stands to lose a lot of money. Honestly, it's in the interest of the fossil producing nations to stabilize the price of energy before rich countries go all in on renewable and alternative energy sources, to put it another way, the longer and higher energy prices goes, the quicker that industry is going to kill it's self off with the renewable energy industry being the likely winner, so as painful as it is having these high energy prices, I actually love it because this is what allows real change to happen in a much shorter space of time then it would have happened and the EU countries are primed to take advantage of that because they have to change now.
If Aramco is public and listed, their lie would be exposed when oil runs out and they would be sued by the shareholders because their lie hid the over-inflated asset thereby over-valuing their assets. This would be fraud.
I’ve seen the sonar maps of the Gulf of Mexico. There is enough there to last for at the very least 100s of years factoring in increased demand. We were drilling for Saudi Aramco when the maps were shown to me. That’s just the gulf, so we aren’t running out for a very very very long time. We drilled the wells and capped them off. It’s supply and demand, and why would anyone give up their supply for pennies.
Problem is not supply. Oil price will go down if demand decrease when people get tired of importing from unstable or undesirable countries and switch to EVs and locally produced renewables
I worked in Saudi Arabia in the early 1980's, wells were straight, shallow,and flowed with very good pressure. I worked in Saudi Arabia in the early 2000's, The wells were much deeper, horizontal, with lower flow pressures. The only new fields were gas wells. I don't know how much oil reserves they have, but I know it is much harder and expensive to get out the oil they have.
The problem of the oil state is that it exports crude oil while it can generate many secondary industries and achieve more profits. The issue of oil reserves changes annually according to exports and new discoveries. I think the state of Ahwaz is one of the most important and richest oil countries in the world, but many people do not know it. Saudi Arabia has undertaken many clean energy projects, and perhaps the oil will run out soon, or perhaps the environmental impact has become significant in Saudi Arabia. We do not know which is more dangerous. Currently, Saudi Arabia has signed with Greece to be a station for the delivery of green nitrogen to the European continent
It's not that interesting about when they "run out", but it's all about when their production peaks, as that's when they lose their position as a world leading producer and swing producer that can control their production by producing more when the world ask and depends on them to do so.
The "run out" phase is also an interesting subject, since the current production rate is not natural but accelerated by injecting sea water in the oil slick to pressure the crude oil up. As a result, the "run out" phase will occur quite suddenly. And dirty sea water does not sell well I have been told.
This guy made his own judgment on Saudi oil reserves based on false speculations and not so detailed research, but hey, he managed to attract 500k viewers. Congratulations!!!
This insistance on tourism and friendliness to new financial opportunities also makes me think they are running out, but maybe its just greediness or just a new wave of capitalism
I personally managed Saudi huge seawater injection projects in the Ghawar reservoir in the 1990's, which happens when oilfields are in decline. The seawater then contaminates the oil production stream and requires separation, or "cut" production. What happens is as easy production declines, more expensive production methods increase. Production drops off slowly in aggregate, as can be observed on the US North Slope production. The Ghawar reservoir is definitely in decline, and seawater injection kicks in past the halfway point. It is common practice to overstate reserves. Saudi Arabia has very little future past oil, as there is too much competition in that theater.
Something to remember about reserves of oil is that your talking about economical reserves today. As prices rise or technologies improve there will always, always, be more oil, especially in the middle east. Additionally the trend of that giant oil field group heads all the way to Russia. There's never been a shortage of oil just demand comes and goes...
The Saudi government may not be lying. In 2010 the company I work for happen to have been given permission to be on the premises of their newly started drilling project. I happen to have one american guy who works there, he said the reserves according to their estimate could last a 100 or more years.
There are enough oil to last the world another 200 years, the problem lies in whether extracting them would be worth the cost or not. With fracking and retorting we're able to extract oil from rocks, maybe in the future we'll be able to scrape more oil from the leached amounts within the earth surrounding previous oil reserves. When oil prices rise, more expensive extraction techniques would be profitable, and thus suddenly increasing countable oil reserves. Most likely, Saudi Arabia just counted every single drop of oil they have, not necessarily the amount of profitable oil reserve they have, for the sake of selling more oil.
I’m from SA , and I’m not in oil expert so maybe you’re right, but I have many friends that works on oils companies and the kingdom is pushing towards energy fields which don’t consent with your video especially with the high tech that aramco have rich , oil maybe in his way to end but don’t forget the huge amount of gas that has been discovered in the kingdom in the last few years & it’s big plan to convert to green energy ect.. , what I mean is your video is against the kingdom plan to steel the energy biggest supplement of the world
it wontmatter climate change would take some countries sooner than others but the middle east by the 2050 maybe even sooner wont be a good place to live , the middle east is heating 2 times faster than world according to new studies.. you think is hot now , by the end of this decade would be hotter and so on and so on ...ironic that the thing that makes your country rich is the same country the is gonna destroy it .. is sad really .
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OPEC had rules saying the amount each member could sell would be based upon the proven reserves. Saudi wanted to sell more oil so it had to "prove" it had a lot more oil in reserve but they also decided it would be a national secret. That is why the amount suddenly went up.
But why aren't anyone checking the reserves then?
@@roystondaniel2849 this private company national. Shareholder only care about profit not oil.
@@roystondaniel2849 They kinda are, Saudi Aramco may want to go public, so they got these dudes from DeGolyer and MacNaughton to verify. For now it seems they agree with the original estimates, but it's not like I have all the details on what data they got independently, what are they relying on the Saudis for. Not to mention any foul play that may be in taking place. The posted video comes somewhat one dimensional, without even trying to post arguments of the other side, but it is, what it is.
TIL
Yeah exactly, so they are all pretty much lying about how much oil they really have. Having said that I am sure the OPEC+ have way more oil than any else. Europe is deleted, China and other East Asian countries rely on imports and the US is just pumping enough for itself possibly at the bottom of the barrell.
"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I ride a Mercedes, my son rides a Land Rover, and my grandson is going to ride a Land Rover…but my great-grandson is going to have to ride a camel again." - Sheikh Rashid, founder of Dubai.
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
ngl oil is like the soul of SA
they need to act fast or they will end up in a very bad situation
Wait why is that ?
Dubai don't live on Oil Abu Dhabi do
I think he ever said those words, even if he said he was pessimistic about future.. but god UAE has transferred into more then oil producing nation it's a tourist hub , and coming to Saudi Arabia, oh god they got mecca and madina.. every muslim(nearly 2 billion) would want to visit those places once in life time... They are safe for sure..
Since my childhood, "Saudi/World oil is going to be depleted in X years" was a common theme. I started to ignore such discussion 10 years ago.
I guess Fusion energy isint the only running joke.
(From Uruguay) Same here. I am 45 and I have heard Saudí Arabia will run out of oil a hundred times.
@@furanduron4926 I guess you aren't the only running joke
Because in the meantime, the biggest user - US stopped needing Saudi oil and became an exporter. Other countries still have vast untapped reserves (Venezuela/Russia). Its not supply - its demand. KSA is still the cheapest per barrel producer and natural gas demand growth is rising while oil is flat or falling (albeit at a slow rate). The biggest oil consumer is now transport - electrify much of Europe/US/Japan/China and the demand falls even faster. Few use oil to make electricity and these are the largest car markets.
We got time yet. 2055!
I worked for Aramco in the 80's. We forecast 30 years of production. Saudi has pumped all the reserves we knew about. We had horizontal and precision drilling but we didn't have fracking (we did use steam and water but I wasn't involved) and we had a reservoir management system running on a mainframe. My belief is that Aramco would only sell shares if they believe that the reserves are running out.
For those dumb enough to buy🍪
There is some evidence that some of the Saudi fields have become damaged and water logged by impatient extraction methods .
@@iaov I have heard that too, which is extra funny because nowhere else on earth is it easier to extract oil.
Look, folks, let me tell you, nobody knows oil reserves better than me. Believe me, I worked for Aramco in the 80s, and I saw things that nobody else saw. We were forecastin', we were drillin', we were doin' it all. We had this incredible reservoir management system runnin' on a mainframe. It was like nothin' you've ever seen before, believe me.
But here's the thing, okay? Saudi has been pumpin' those reserves like there's no tomorrow. They've been goin' at it, day and night. And let me tell ya, we knew about those reserves. We had 'em all figured out. But now, they're runnin' low, believe me. They're runnin' low.
And that's why, folks, Aramco is sellin' shares. They know, just like I know, that when the reserves are runnin' out, you gotta cash in. It's like sellin' those Trump steaks before they go bad. Aramco ain't doin' this for fun, okay? They're doin' it 'cause they're smart, they're business-minded. They know the game.
So, mark my words, when Aramco starts sellin' those shares, it means one thing and one thing only: the reserves are runnin' out. And I'll tell ya, nobody knows reserves better than me. Nobody. So, don't let 'em fool ya with all that fancy talk. They're sellin' 'cause they're runnin' low, and they want to get out while the gettin's good. It's as simple as that, folks.
@@jackryan1809 India's andman are super middle east
I was around in the 70s when the experts said Saudi oil would run out by the end of the decade
Sounds similar to "China is collapsing this years/decades" type of expert claim
@@choigold5094 *Peter Zeihan enters the chat.
And polar ice would complety melt by year 2000.
@@choigold5094 Yup or India will be a superpower in 5 years whilst still having hundreds of millions of citizens even in 2022 living in crippling poverty.
its the experts job to report on issues and then its the governments job to resolve the issue, the fact that it didnt happen means everyone simply did their job. to boil down your comment everything you are saying is you are above 60 years old. ok congratulations with that.
Since the 80s technology has changed that allows oil to be recovered that was not accounted as recoverable oil reserves. The Oil Sands in Canada have well over 1 trillion barrels of oil but oly 150 billion barrels are able to be recourved.
this video is absolute cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
I was wondering about this sort of thing. The term fraking comss to mind. A tech they didnt have some time ago and it allows access to different pockets of natural gas. Iirc.
Why wouldnt there be some advancements in getting oil out of the ground?
Correct
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
@@davidburnett5049 Oil is a different substance
Not true
I work as a geologist at Saudi Aramco. In the past decade we found so many new fields with huge reserves. In hafuf or even near Qassim. From 2019 we were asked to stop searching for new onse For political reasons.
Final word : Saudi Arabia is a big country there are oil where ever we drill. I wish we had th same in my country
I'm just assuming for political reasons lol. I have no idea why.
@@Scatteril It does make sense. Producing more than the current demand would decrease the oil prices. Its more profitable that way
@@funnykuwaitistrawberryelep3674 funny Kuwaiti strawberry elephant
@@IbnWobbler yes
Doesn’t matter if your country has oil. It depends on your government to determine if you will be oil rich. Case in point: look at Venezuela.
It's important to understand that estimates of recoverable oil are based on the technology available at the time.
Over the past 15-20 years, horizontal drilling, precision drilling and fracking have allowed for the recovery of far more oil and gas than what was available prior to 2005. Fracking is not possible nor worthwhile in every location, either.
I dont believe the hyped news stories about a fracking revolution. This technology was used in the 1950s. The graph of oil and gas output from fracking is far too extreme to be sustained in the US. The wells peak fast and deplete rapidly and are fairly high cost. The frackers don't seem to be so keen on expanding output now .The weaknesses probably explain why conventional oil fields were preferred by the oil majors
@@Marvin-dg8vj there is trillions of oil its hard to get it deep
Fracking is used on shale reserves. As i understand fracking isn't necessary in the middle east.
@@sjdhrjrjejdhdhsh which probably explains the low cost per barrel unless the fields are very old
@@sjdhrjrjejdhdhsh its were ever it works or is profitable
Oil in the ground does not suddenly run out, like a bottle would. As an oil well nears depletion, its output peaks and starts declining. This is also true for the output in an oil field, and generally for a nation as well. These are all reversible with improved technology - USA output peaked in the 70s, before recovering due to fracking.
The fact that SA keeps their output stable suggests they are not yet peaked. Even if they peak tomorrow, or we see that they actually peaked a few years ago and managed to cover it up, this still means they have many decades of lower output.
Yes but is the potential for Fracking not very dependent on local condition?. So fracking requires a lot of water, for instance, so it would be tricky in a desert environment.
could not agree more....this guy is using estimates based on 1930s and 1970s technology saying "it doesn't;t add up",,,,,of course it doesn't....completely backwards
@@MrBobsmith34 I wish they used water for fracking…
When an oil field reaches declining pressure (half the reserve), they simply pump sea water into the reserve in order to increase pressure. That is how SA has been maintaining production for the past decade.
In the oil peak graphic, SA has artificially generated a plateau , it will most likely (more than rise) decrease production in the near future.
@@MrBobsmith34 I don't think that SA has oil shale, like North America has.
I would recommend getting your peer review your video with a petroleum engineer. While It is difficult to know the trust level of Saudi's published reserves, the logic and reasoning in this video are full of flow and naive.
India k paas saudi se jyada oil hai. Andaman me super middle east hai.
Afsos vaha se ek gram oil nahi nikala
I quit half way into the video. Never once is the possibility raised that the Saudis found new oil reserves through improved seismology technology or any others.
In the early years of the oil industry, recovery of 5% was considered the rule of thumb. But over the years, as technology advances, recovery rate improved to 15%, to 30% and now with enhanced oil recovery, it could reach up to 50%.
The presumption is that fracking tech can unlock way more expensive oil reserves and while that is true, the cost is higher and that only works if credit is cheap to keep opening up new wells while the price remains high to recover the cost and inflation stays low or acceptable. KSA does some limited fracking Saudi Arabia. As we can see from Europe, its natural gas to run industry and heat homes and run gas turbines to make electricity thats the vice grip. Cut transport fuel use and you cut oil demand instantly. Higher airfuel costs does not impact most economies (bar tourism dependent island nations), bunker oil remains the shipping fuel and it only has one real customer - shipping. Plastics has always been oils backup customer but we are seeing early use of non oil plastic (or no plastic) and higher energy costs make plastic using customers look at alternatives. If we take US fracking firms at present - they have the high oil price (while the war continues in Ukraine) but rising credit costs/inflation and Wall st wants its money back not promises
Whats needed is chemicals, water and a known bedrock and low water tables. Droughts and water scarcity cuts water availability. Chems have a nasity tendency to backfire/injure workers and resurface and climate change means droughts and intense rainfall and all that water can join up with your injecting. Alternatives like C02 injecting has merits but C02 can often just seep back up. If fracking worked in offshore rigs, we would have seen it happen at scale considering the cost of initial well development and existing infrastructure . Fracking also needs repeated well development and that means lots of regular cheap capex cash up front.
And it all comes with a cost.
-own pressure
-gas lift
-pumps
-water injection - water flooding
-gas injection
-tenside flooding
-steam flooding
-flooding with viscosity enhancer
and what not.
@@stephendoherty8291 Americans start squealing at $5 Gas, how will they take to paying the amounts needed to unlock all this 'more expensive oil'? A series of intensifying demand-destructive recessions was my prediction.
@@nickoutram6939 they wouldn’t. We started seeing demand destruction occurring at the $5 a gallon level. There’s a big chunk of the American population that wouldn’t be able to afford the price levels needed for the higher cost oil deposits. Until the lower cost oil is used up it’s not going to be feasible for the higher price oil extraction. Even then there would be a big shift in mass behavior in the usage of gasoline and oil products in the U.S. and possibly other countries as well
While I think SA is lying about their oil reserves, I also don't believe they will expire within the next 20 years.
Yep agreed
this video is straight cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
@@LogicallyAnswered Nah... You just wanted to get viewers. At least why don't try another oil rich country, why pick Saudi Arabia.
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
@@FitraRahim why not?
Oil reserves go up and down depending on if it is profitable to actually sell it, since the oil embargo oil prices skyrocketed and therefore what was earlier considered unprofitable to be refined was suddenly profitable and hence added to the reserves, Saudi Arabia has one of most cheapest costs to refine oil per barrel if i remember correctly it was around 8$ per barrel so therefore if oil prices keep going up so will their reserves (up to a certain point obviously)
No , that is true for usa as the the prices go up it will be profitable for USA to sell oil, USA still own the largest oil reserves still, but they stopped mining it few decades back and just siting on it for the Saudi reserves to run out and prices rose so that they can sell their oil. So rising prices are only going to profit USA.
@@bambino2249 bruh, I can promise you the US is producing a lot of oil. We didn't stop decades ago.
@@dgart7434 ya hes talking out of his ass
no, thats not how the calculate reserves, they just look how much is in there.......
8$ per barrel in russia 🇷🇺, 2$ per barrel in SA
25% of the exportable oil comes from SA and another 25% comes from Russia. Another interesting fact, in the last 22 years half the oil ever produced was consumed. It would appear we are reaching the end of exponential growth and have a math problem, "you cannot have continued growth in population and you can't have continued growth in the consumption of resources."
Some things I didn't see you touch on include technology advancing, and the political climate behind the oil production of Saudi Arabia. Part of the jump may be due to a new method of extraction or refinement, with less consideration of the environmental consequences of the extraction methods, meaning they can draw the wells more deeply than they were able to in the early days. There is also pressures by OPEC and other agencies as well. I would only assume that the oil extraction and processing technology has only advanced, possibly at a faster rate than is allowed to elsewhere.
This video ignored 2 major factors: estimation could be inaccurate & there are way improved technology in extracting the oil. Anyone who worked in an oil industry knows this information.
Also the video failed at explaining "why they're lying" because it doesn't makes much sense to lie if you want to keep the prices high. And moving from oil as a source for economic growth is always a better solution than staying the same. Everyone know the Oil will deplete one day, developing economy away from it is the right move because that takes alot of time.
It's obviously clickbait
The video explains why you would play the reservs up, especially when going public with Saudi Aramco. The 50% spike after the Americans left is reason enough to question the numbers. The prices are made by supply and demand, not future availability.
I tottaly agree that this video presented only one side of the argument, without even touching at least some of the explanations and evidence for the data posted by the Saudies. But to be fair they tried to make argument of why lie, based on that SA are using their reserves as a card to get slighly better recognition as a serious player on the international scene. I would also point out that the Saudi goverment, may be somewhat reluctant to tell its own citizens, that things may get worse in 10 years.
sounds speculative.... lots of ifs and there is no real hard evidence...
The question is - how better is the technology to get oil? I mean - is there other countries that got upraise of oil reserves since the 80s? How often the old estimates where wrong? And finally - when your whole existence is based on an export of commodity - to lie about how much you have of it is a good tactic to keep yourself in power. Specially if you have no other options.
Reservers do increase over time. They're based on being profitable mined. So while the price of the resource increases the reservers will increase
Also, fracking tech has improved.
"Finite reserves increase over time" Have you even passed elementary school ?
What the fuck are you talking about? Reserves do not increase over time, it is finite.
The amount of oil physically present in the ground does not increase. But they could discover more is down there than previously known with better exploration. And more importantly, if price increases and technology improvements make it profitable to extract more of the pie, they can count more of it. For example, you know there's 100 barrels in the ground, but only 50 can be profitably extracted, your reserves are only 50 barrels. If price increases means that you can profitably extraxr 60 barrels, your reserves have now increased by 10 barrels.
So, if oils rising price increases reserves due to economic viability, where are the drops in reserves due to oils falling price making them uneconomically viable?
Enhanced recovery is a factor.
One has to differeneciate between reserves and resources.
Reserves are economically recoverable resources.
Given the advances in oil recovery technologies, sustained high prices and capital investment timelines, it is perfectly imaginable that KSA increased its reserves.
Correct. And that’s one factor of many others that help improve proven reserve numbers.
Yeah, keep on dreaming...
@@bigstylo Yes, improving the numbers - that's the name of the game. The physical production is another matter entirely...
@@Kamamura2 and what’s wrong with the physical numbers of Saudi crude production?
If they’re lying you would have seen that they can’t maintain the production numbers they are delivering for the past 35+ years.
It’s funny how a lot in the west believe the reserve numbers claimed by some countries ie Venezuela while they are not producing anything physically that correlates to these claims, all while scrutinizing Saudi numbers.
One other factor is shale oil, easily said saudi’s eastern border holds a very large amount of undiscovered shale oil just for the fact that now is not the time that saudi needs it, bahrain which is located right on the eastern coast of saudi announced a very large discovery and its very likely that under saudi’s side of the border the rest of the reserve
Nonsense. I have a friend in the oil business. He works there and in other Arab countries. We had a conversation about this very thing about 5 years ago. I was saying that we used to be subjected to the "oil is going to run out' stuff in the 70s. He said it is absolute nonsense. They are floating on the stuff. There is so much they can't keep up with it and more is being discovered every day. Plus in North America we are sitting on probably the biggest deposit in the world and it isn't even being used yet. On top of that the shale reserves particularly in Canada are virtually limitless. There is also a school of thought that the earth actually reproduces oil and it is not from primeval vegetation, that stems from Russia but it is a fairly widespread thought. We are not going to run out of oil anytime soon. The problem is supply is manipulated to keep prices high not a lack of resources.
very true because if the company say the reason they sell at high price was due to low supplies then it could be convenience for them and the public can't blame them or sue the. Where as if they just say they wanted more profit then the public would be mad and will sue them creating unwanted bad media around them, thus damaging their reputation and businesses.
@@khaipinaulak485 SPOT ON !! Well said.
Bulldrops. I doupt you have know anyone in the business since no expert ever said that "oil is going to run out' stuff in the 70s". The concept developed in the 70s by the geophysicist King Hubbert is called Hubbert peak. It means that as the pressure decreases the oil production will eventually reach a maximum and start decreasing as well.
Plus demand for oil is already falling and should crater over the next 10-15 years.
Even in the worst case "only a decade left," demand for oil could drop by more than Saudi production by the time they run low.
@@srfrg9707 'Bulldrops' yourself. I know a lot of people in the oil industry. I'll bet you know nobody. In the 70s it was always we are going to run out. A stupid scare to whip everyone into a panic. It was also "there is an ice age coming". There are your bulldrops right there.
As for the rest of your post I was not talking about a well coming to the end of its life. I was talking about the abundance of oil in general. We are not running out.
The late Matt Simmons wrote a book about this in the early 2000s called Twilight in the Desert. He took whatever publicly available data he could find to make the argument that SA was on it's way down in oil production soon. I wonder what he would say if he were still around.
Any authoritarian nation should be inherently distrusted when it comes to statistics. It's like the study of light emitted into space by countries and how it correlated with economic improvement. Russia and China's light growth lagged behind their stated data when compared to western countries.
Hahaha, I didn’t know that
This is very interesting
@@LogicallyAnswered sad saudi noises
this video is cap and i can prove it
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Lol and democracies should be trusted lol.
There’s a reaseon why it’s called “Estimate”
And don’t forget “the old expert” expect the US should have run out of oil in the 70’s,
this video is straight cap and i can prove it
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Meh... in 2015 or something, some "expert" also says, Saudi Arabia could run out Oil in 5 years from now.
Meanwhile oil production right now :
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
peak production is different from end of production btw
but yeah, i remember early 2000 "oil would be out by 2025-2030 at best" SURE...
Not run out but peak. And it did. It was conventional oil. Now we are fracking.
There was a forum called “The Oil Drum” . There was one post about Saudi oil where one person was discussing this, and in particular why all the wells are on one side, and some are already sucking water. BTW, the well is balanced with clean water to maintain pressure.
Do they use sea water or fresh water?
@@baz1184 Desalinated sea water. You can’t use just sea water. Look up what happened to Iraq’s reserves
Interesting!
Venezuela's oil is "Heavy" to "Extra Heavy Crude." This makes it difficult slurp up from the ground. It is also high in Sulphur i.e. "Sour." The raw crude also has to be blended with lighter oils to facilitate processing. A refinery has to be modified to handle this so the market for this is actually a bit restricted.
Venezuela is a very big Country like every country some oil is heavy some is light this is a myth by their competitors the reality is Venezuela is full of oil and is not heavy at all some is light some is heavy Same as Saudi ...
Except the fact that Chavez ruined the whole Venezuelan oil industry.
@@pablo-oq8is Venezuela needs 10 years of heavy investment to recover pre-communism levels of extraction, the question is, who is going to put 10 years of investment in a dictatorial communism country?
Plus Saudi Arabia has Mecca in which 1.5 billion Muslims worldwide would visit for their pilgrimage pouring revenues to Saudi Arabia forever.😊😊😊😊😊😊
If they are truly running out in a decade it should show on their production out put. Like algeria.
Recouvrable oil should increase with technological advancement even from "depleted" fields without even discovering anything new.
Main issue is that they aren't running out of oil, they are running out of cheap oil.
Fact!
Can you please elaborate on algeria running out of oil
@@aykuno25romer77 They reached their peak production around 2008 1.4m barrel a day, then slowly declined to 1m a day per covid.
Plus their local consumption is quite high, it is even about running out oil for them, they might not even be able to export any by 2030. Also during the algerian civil war in the 90s they suffered from not investing in their fields that's also catching up to them.
@@dexterbrown9681 Thanks for the explanation
@@dexterbrown9681 Correction: they are still recovering from the Algerian civil war regarding oil infrastructure investments.
I am tired of the Algerian corrupt leadership constantly BLAMING Morocco for their own sh-t!!! Whenever people revolt against their government, or complain of inflation, currency being wrecked etc. etc. They magically invent a scenario to blame Morocco! I can't wait for this trashy government to be democratically overthrown (Tunesia style)
Lets be honest here ....our integrity and accuracy over production, or availability, yield or supply are often conflicting and variable ...and therefore often very questionable and problematic... Especially in valued commodities that are carefully controlled and guarded....especially where and when supply, demand and huge potentials profits (and loss) are involved .
I had watched a video a while back about how we underestimate the oil we have. Which lead to headlines stating we only have X number of decades worth of oil and it will all run out. When I’m reality we fast forward and are living comfortably with increased demand of oil and still have projections that give us more decades. It’s the science and technology improving that increases our efficiency in extracting oil. This is also a point we need to take into account. Also I believe that even couple decades from now on Saudi will be making a little less but still a sizeable about of money from under developed countries while developed and developing countries will have shifted significantly to electricity.
you are correct. a big flaw in the reasoning by those that claim there is x amount of oil left, is that they are starting with static numbers and then projecting them out over decades. yet the industry's tech advancements means those numbers are dynamic, and must be altered every year as improvements are implemented in everything from mining to refining.
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
this is blatantly false. by the way the iea has released outlooks since 2018, funny you don't use those.
The demand also increases, both from countries becoming more industrialized like China and India and countries that are industrialized having more children or immigration to increase population. Getting more oil is a crapshoot as to what will be developed, price, etc. The increase in human demand for energy in general is a guaranteed increase.
@@BlGDaddyRob getting oil isn't a crapshoot, it's a highly developed industry. finding oil sources, developing them into productive sites is something the industry has more than a century of experience doing. it also has a guaranteed increase since oil tech advances every year.
They have been telling us that oil is running out since they first discovered it 😅
Running out of oil is not the important point here, it's peak production. As pointed out in many of the comments below, reserve revisions are common place in the oil patch. But reserve revisions do not help a "peaked" field. Prudhoe Bay is a great example. The original recoverable number was 10B bbls, it's past that now and there is probably another 2B bbls to be had from the play. It peaked in the late 80's at around 1.5M bbls/d, and today produces around 300K bbls/d. They have thrown every enhanced recovery method in the book at the field, to no avail. Production continues to decline, regardless of continued upward reserve revisions. Aramco has announced an increase of their capex to drive total "sustainable production to 13M bbls/d by 2027
"Saudi Aramco will keep raising capital expenditure until the mid-2020s as part of its strategy to
raise oil production capacity to 12.3 million barrels per day by 2025 and to 13 million b/d by 2027,
the company's top executive said.
"We are progressing very well in our increase of capacity," Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on a
media call Sunday after announcing second-quarter results.
Nasser said the capacity increase from the present level of 12 million b/d would be gradual, with
maximum sustainable capacity rising to 12.3 million b/d in 2025, 12.7 million in 2026 and 13 million
b/d by 2027.
To support the capacity hikes, among other developments, Aramco is allocating capex to the tune of
$40 billion-$50 billion this year, which will increase from 2023 until 2025, Nasser said.
"There will be an increase year on year to meet our growth, not only in oil - in oil and gas, and
hydrogen, crude to chemicals," he said.
Capex rose 25% to $9.4 billion in the second quarter and by 8% to $16.9 billion during the first half
of 2022, compared to the same periods in 2021, Aramco announced on the earnings call."
These experts you keep on quoting, are they the same experts that were writing about peak oil in the early 2000's?
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A good reason to overstate the reserves would also be to get more money for Saudi Aramco when it went public.
this video is total cap and i can prove it
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IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
Aramco never went public.
It was opened to only Saudi citizens.
New technologies mean more oil can be recovered from previously known reserves, such as sysmic imaging, horizontal drilling, fracking, pumping down chemicals to force more oil out
exactly
But that also means more costs. That's the major factor that makes saudi oil so desired: it's high quality and cheap to drill (so far at least).
It requires American technologies that SA doesn't posess. There are oil shale fields all over the world but only the US has the investment money coupled with the technical know how to extract it and make a profit. There's no shortage of oil, but it's hard to get to.
@@billweberx go to it’s financial statements you will see the huge amount of money that invested in research. Armco is under rated by a lot
@@billweberx usa is not the only country with brains dude, maybe u need to get out of that little bubble now, it's getting annoying
Not a good thing if you want poor people to starve
One of the issues of being dependent on foreign expertise is that it is hard to keep this information secret. This has been an open secret among the oil community for many years now.
In 1970 the US had about 30 billion barrels of proven reserves. 120 billion barrels of production layer we've got almost 40 billion
6:30 your argument against them increasing production is wrong. even 0.1% of mismatch between supply and demand can change oil prices by 10%. during covid, oil demand reduced by 5-10% and prices went negative when opec refused to decrease production. Doubling oil production would basically have the same effect, plus other OPEC countries don't let each other change production that easily anyways
No colonel sanders. You’re wrong.
This world is rapidly passing away and I hope that you repent and take time to change before all out disaster occurs! Belief in messiah alone is not enough to grant you salvation - Matthew 7:21-23, John 3:3, John 3:36 (ESV is the best translation for John 3:36) if you believed in Messiah you would be following His commands as best as you could. If you are not a follower of Messiah I would highly recommend becoming one. Call on the name of Jesus and pray for Him to intervene in your life - Revelation 3:20.
Contemplate how the Roman Empire fulfilled the role of the beast from the sea in Revelation 13 over the course of 1260+ years. Revelation 17 confirms that the beast is in fact Rome. From this we can conclude that A) Jesus is the Son of God and can predict the future or make it happen, B) The world leaders/nations/governments etc have been conspiring together for the last 3000+ years going back to Babylon and before, C) History as we know it is fake. You don't really need to speculate once you start a relationship with God.
Can't get a response from God? Fasting can help increase your perception and prayer can help initiate events. God will ignore you if your prayer does not align with His purpose (James 4:3) or if you are approaching Him when "unclean" (Isaiah 1:15, Isaiah 59:2, Micah 3:4). Stop eating food sacrificed to idols (McDonald's, Wendy's etc) stop glorifying yourself on social media or making other images of yourself (Second Commandment), stop gossiping about other people, stop watching obscene content etc. Have a blessed day!
From my reading there was a trusted independent audit of proven oil reserves in 2019 which largely confirmed Saudi estimates. Far from a fan of Saudi Arabia but I think their estimates are largely accurate
they underestimate their oil reserves actually, in 2007 they said Aramco oil field can only produce 7 million barrels per day, now with just little infrastructure improvement Aramco is producing 12 million barrels per day.
Saudi arabia is a terrorist country.
@@niweshlekhak9646 dude Americans where able to pump 10 million 40 years before
@@karthikeyanm.v8381 US doesn't extract it's own oil, it buys oil from countries that don't have refineries and then sells it.
@@niweshlekhak9646 bro us is no 1 oil producer in the world. Also US OWNED Aramco at some point
GPUs have enabled finding resources right below our feet that were previously unknown. Obviously I have no idea, but I imagine advances in technology are outpacing a gradual yearly increase in demand for crude oil.
Fracking means oil that before could not be recovered can be processed. Oil wells that are considered to have run out really have not run out but have reserves that are not easily accessible but fracking has changed all of that.
the looming threat of running out of oil has been used to push prices for decades .. why should this be different?
Just because something hasn’t happened in the past doesn’t mean that it won’t happen in the future
@@thomasgolds4585 after countless decades of the same tactic applied .. we are facing "peak oil" for something like a century now .. constantly used to push the oil price a bit .. you should be able to see a pattern .. and tbh .. (what i do NOT think) even if saudi oil ran out .. they're BY FAR not the only supplier and there are very huge fields not even tapped yet, i.e. in venezuela, around the krimea, in the chinese waters, and many more .. it wouldn't be the end of the world .. just bad for saudi arabia
Produceable oil can be increased by technology such as gas lift and water injection, such as done in Norway.
What's the difference between "water injection" and fracking?
@@danielverlander5025 water injection is used to 'push' more hydrocarbons to the pumps, while fracking is intended to fracture the shale rocks, releasing the hydrocarbons
@@danielverlander5025
Fracking involves tunneling boreholes through rocks by fracturing them using sand, gas and water. They can actually do horizontal drilling meaning then can drill down away from rocks and then drill sideways under rock profiles. Meaning both oil and gas that was before considered unreachable is now easily accessible.
Robotics and new radar systems mean they are getting better and better at spotting the stuff. There is probably a whole layer of oil and gas just waiting to be exploited in the not so distant future.
Gas lift is an old tech
Best comment yet. I like the fact that you let the concept sink in peoples minds rather that explaining the consequences.
working in saudi arabia for 15 years now,i can assure you there is still a lot of oil reserved being discoved every year,and it is always on public knowledge.nice content though
What’s the proof. Any links to articles
@@evilsanta8585 th-cam.com/video/juh0_Tyzb4A/w-d-xo.html
@@Anonymous-ld7je Most countries spent less on research and exploration, other than Aramco, it expanded
There are some new discoveries eg the Abraq al-Toloul oil field, plus a couple of gas fields (Hadabat al Hajara, and Shadun)... the claimed volumes are all sketchy, and none come close to the older giant fields like Ghawar... which has been providing oil for over 70 years.
Keep believing that propaganda though, bro.
@@BatCaveOz i would never believe in anything you will say bro,your not even here in saudi arabia,and you know nothing at all about whats going on in here🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
0:27 mentions Saudi Arabia while showing the Sand Hollow dunes in Utah. But seriously, what a well put together and eye opening video.
Video is all lies an easily disproven with ONE google search.
this video is absolute cap and i can prove it
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IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
Stock videos for you
Some incresse in reserves are legitimate due to changing technology that makes more oil accessable, such as pumping sea water into fields to increese pressure.
Also the main reason to overstate reserves is to incresse leverage in OPEC itself, as the allocation of production is based on reserves, we saw reserve inflation in all OPEC nations right at the same time and then freezes in thouse numbers, effecticly OPEC members decided on a truce and to freeze the allocation numbers by freezing their reserved numbers.
As a oil field worker, the only lie here is this video
A really fair and well-researched video once more! great job!
Thanks man!
this video is straight cap and i can prove it
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Dude relax we keep discovering new oil fields on yearly basis. Like the empty quarter desert that turned out to be far from empty.
Demand also increases daily.
@@BlGDaddyRob as the world moves more into green energy, I don’t think demand will be increasing all that much
@@martilix4470 demand for energy overall increases every time a human is born, but yes I agree it would be possible to offset that with a higher increase in other energy sources. However, weve been moving towards renewables for decades now and oil usage(worldwide) is still increasing, and there is no guarantee that government policies might change to reduce renewable use in the near future. Its a balancing act that hasn't flipped yet toward demand reducing, though it very well might with the green incentives in the "anti inflation" act, the US at least is already trending down a little bit, but I dont know how much of that was the wars in the 2000s slowing down or covid which also temporarily caused a big hit.
This world is rapidly passing away and I hope that you repent and take time to change before all out disaster occurs! Belief in messiah alone is not enough to grant you salvation - Matthew 7:21-23, John 3:3, John 3:36 (ESV is the best translation for John 3:36) if you believed in Messiah you would be following His commands as best as you could. If you are not a follower of Messiah I would highly recommend becoming one. Call on the name of Jesus and pray for Him to intervene in your life - Revelation 3:20.
Contemplate how the Roman Empire fulfilled the role of the beast from the sea in Revelation 13 over the course of 1260+ years. Revelation 17 confirms that the beast is in fact Rome. From this we can conclude that A) Jesus is the Son of God and can predict the future or make it happen, B) The world leaders/nations/governments etc have been conspiring together for the last 3000+ years going back to Babylon and before, C) History as we know it is fake. You don't really need to speculate once you start a relationship with God.
Can't get a response from God? Fasting can help increase your perception and prayer can help initiate events. God will ignore you if your prayer does not align with His purpose (James 4:3) or if you are approaching Him when "unclean" (Isaiah 1:15, Isaiah 59:2, Micah 3:4). Stop eating food sacrificed to idols (McDonald's, Wendy's etc) stop glorifying yourself on social media or making other images of yourself (Second Commandment), stop gossiping about other people, stop watching obscene content etc. Have a blessed day!
Excellent production, very interesting and well researched. Great job. 💖
Thank you Kerri! I really appreciate it!
this video is straight cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
Maybe nature makes oil faster than we can pump. LOL
experts have been saying the world running out of oil. "By 2016" lol
They also said Nigerian oil would be finished by 2017 but it still has. You can never predict when natural resources will exhaust, they are always forming.
Lmao it takes millions of years to form and it mostly goes underwater. The tectonic plates just shifted them to some places around the world. Mostly in the Middle East.
But you are right to say it will take a long long time to dry up.
Yes I agree with Disposabull I remember as a kid during the formation of OPEC that the status of each country was based on their oil reserves. I think UAE also had a bit of a jump in reserves to also increase their position at the table.
Don't trust Arabs , but trust Americans 🤡🤦
OPEC is wicked. Global monopoly!
The term proven reserves evolves with time. When oil was first discovered essentially the way you got it is you stuck a bucket in and pulled up oil from the puddle on the surface. Over time our methods have gotten much more sophisticated to include drilling then deep Drilling then angle Drilling and then fracking. And our definition of provable Reserve has broadened to include oil recoverable under all of these methods. That's why across the world a proven reserves have steadily gone up for the past 50 years.
So it is entirely possible that advances in drilling fracking Etc have in effect increased the amount of recoverable oil in Saudi Arabia.
Of course it's also possible that they're lying. But when you consider that every other country in the world has taking advantage of every technology possible in order to increase their proven Reserves I think it's reasonable to conclude that saudi's reserves have gone up along with everyone else.
Then again maybe I'm just a disinformation-bot from russia. Who can say right?
Anything thinking that offends west is coming from Russian bots.. welcome to New Era..
Matt Simmons warned about this over 20 years ago.
It’s crazy how America is playing chess meanwhile the rest of the world is playing tic tac toe
To be fair, increasing production may not be in their best interest
Interest and greed are not synonymous words.
@@srfrg9707 so it's okay for usa to be greedy but not for saudis ?
@@crimbo6993 what?
The reason for the change in reserves is the same as how the Americans found oil in Dammam 7. Just dig a bit deeper and utilize better technology to get what’s down there out
Or swtich to renewables. It's better for the planet. Only stupid people don't care about that.
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
Imagine...suddenly there is an announcement that all the oil reserves are depleted or too difficult to extract. Imagine the uproar and anarchy. The government and oil merchants had made contract to lie to their people so that the economy keeps running.
thats stupid, people selling oil would benefit immensely if people thought its about to end, being able to jack up pricing
@@jusu8961 That state would be temporary... They cannot continue to keep high prices for long as it's already very high
There will be no announcement because there will be no warning. The production is maintained by water injection. A technique similar to fracking : They inject sea water in the oil slick. As a result the pressure is maintained and the production of oil is not reduced. Until the day they see dirty sea water coming out of the derrick. And dirty sea water does not sell so well I have been told. What was you point? Imagine the uproar and anarchy. Yes. I can imagine that.
@@srfrg9707 Oh... I was unaware of that technique... I will definitely check it out... My point was governments can lie to people to earn profits... We have seen it in history and even happened on a contemporary basis... And yes this will result in anarchy and chaos... Imagine you just bought your dream car thinking the petrol will be there forever and then suddenly news come that it's over or very less quantity is remaining...
@@robocop5543 The announcement will be like : "Huuu... Sorry everyone. Arabs have no oil left. The remaining producers by decreasing order of reserves are Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Yes, all the villains. But fear not. We do have Greta Thunberg."
We can only hope. So the civilized world can leave these people to their backwards ways
The amount of people defending SA here is genuinely worrying
The video ignored that the reserves are certified by third party most of them are american audit companies
In my child life i remember we have been taught by experts we have worth of 70 years of oils. In any case these days people wants detail just take a move. While people in the past didn't need that much of details and numbers to make a move.....
I have no doubt that an American company could easily be bribed to lie about the results.
@@naddarr1 by that reasoning we can't trust any data, so the oil may last for 2 days as well as 500 years more. You either accept the data or avoid making predictions altogether. Or produce your own data.
Oil is a finite resource...regardless if they have less than 10 years or decades more worth of supply, it will run out. Before running out, we will face an era of peak oil, the time when oil production have reach the max and starting to decline while demand steadily increases. Be ready for that era because the transition will be very painful for those who are unprepared.
You are talking crap.
Please just read about Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD), Smart Well Completion (SWC) and Horizontal Thrust Boring (HTB) and you'll understand how the proven reserves are climbing up instead of going down. A "smart" well produces on average 40% more oil than conventional wells, and that alone will dismiss your claims. There are so many fields discovered left and right, and all new fields are shut-in for future development. I think that the current oil reserves estimations are quite conservative compared to the reality!
This lines up with what a lot of research that's says most non renewable energy sources will really start to wane after 2050 and be too expensive to retrieve by 2070-2080
Pretty sure all of us are being lied to and that oil will be depleted before 2035
Love your video!
Buddy, oil reserves are not calculated like you would calculate grain reserves. Your understanding of petroleum reservoir engineering is, well, sketchy, no pun intended.
People say Saudi Arabia can just transition to tourism don't understand one thing: location. The whole reason in the first place that people come for tourism is business that many global politicians, brokers, and businessmen MUST come there to do business. And if you think all these multi millionaires and billionaires will come to Saudi Arabia for no reason, you don't follow how businessmen value their time. And there's one thing to guarantee: they're not going to be able to maintain these extremely expensive skyscrapers (that have to be given a foundation in SAND), extremely expensive water projects that exist in the middle of the desert, and stupidly decadent projects like their indoor ski projects will not survive their largest export being pulled like a plug from a bath tub.
Suadi Arabia will continue to surprise the world with how much money it makes and their living standards for many many years to come.
"their cities are more modern than even western cities"
But western cities have sewers. Dubai does not.
Dubai is not Saudi arabia
Does Saudi have sewers? I was mostly focused on Dubai about that.
@@kalebgonzales4009 I think they have. Every year they hosting millions of pilgrimage from all around the world. Where do they throw the waste if they didnt have sewer. Using tank to suck every septic tank is inneficient,specially when the road to the area is filled with people
@@GoodLookingGentlemen that’s good to hear but why did Dubai fail to do what Saudi did?
@@kalebgonzales4009 like any other "modern" people...they just wanna look good from the outside. So make over their landscape is priority,that's where the money go. Meanwhile they put aside the supporting facilities,cause it doesnt seen in the surface. Beside with that many desert,they think people can just go outside and poop on the desert then burry it like a cat 😂
Irrelevant as due to global warming the whole area will become uninhabitable by 2050 - so diversification is pointless no one can live in 50 degrees Celsius
Lol we do in Saudi have you heard about it that’s what desert is
All of NW Saudi Arabia is full of enormous oil reserves they haven't even started to drill for, and that came from American Exxon oil field engineer Jim Caldwell who was there in the 90's and confirmed it. He also said it's the lightest, sweetest crude oil yet discovered and there's easily 300 years worth of extraction there, but to date it's still untapped. No, if Saudi is lying about anything it's not overestimating, it's way understating. There's a reason America prefers to buy oil rather than produce it's own, which is someday when/if Saudi Arabia runs out, America can then revert back to its own reserves while the rest of the world scrambles to replace the loss.
Exactly. People here while about us being "dependent" on Saudi oil when the reality is we are simply saving our own. If anybody is the "dependent" one, it's Saudi Arabia. It's a one trick pony.
an Arabian wisdom says: “If you can't pick grapes, say it's bitter”
So we are on the top of the world, and oil is god gift, and it won’t run out
Long live The kingdom 🇸🇦
As a Saudi I do know how much oil discoveries are being made over here and they are massive, I am also aware that our current oil barrel production per month is 10.44 mill and the max production capacity is 12 mill and that it will be increased to 13 mill by 2027. I also understand basic economics and that the supply and demand control the price of an item hence the need not to overflood the market with oil and the creation of OPEC and OPEC+ to control the world supply of oil. Am also aware about basic common sense which says that you shouldn't help anyone that talks shit about you unless they make up for it. Saudi people are aware that an economy relying on one material is not sustainable long term hence the country diversification of income. Saudi people are also aware that the technologies need to go green hence the country plans to be the #1 world green energy producer. The Saudi country as a whole understand the significance of going completely carbon free hence the goal to do so by 2060. Saudi people are also aware that Dubai a nearby country found success in tourism so why not just copy it? We're both the same culturally and values wise yet both countries are unique and got a healthy rivalry going on that keeps pushing both of em toward a better future. Am also aware that lying is not a part of our culture nor our religion so don't mix us up with whatever environment you live in because the world is vast and the people are different and that is the true beauty of living in a vast world. All this is reflecting positively on the Saudi economy. the results can be seen by the fact that Saudi Arabia recently ranked #1 among the G20 countries when it comes to the "GDP recovery from the coronavirus pandemic" and we the people like all what's going on. I could keep writing this forever.
this video is complete cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
IS ALLAH AFRAID OF ISRAELI MISSILES? STAY AWAY FROM ISLAM
saudi is the worst government on earth outside of north korea
"All this is reflecting positively on the Saudi economy. the results can be seen by the fact that Saudi Arabia recently ranked #1 among the G20 countries when it comes to the "GDP recovery from the coronavirus pandemic", literally just reflects oil price rises after covid.
I’m from Dubai
Saudi revenues reached new peaks this year because of oil revenue. Saudi will fail because you have so many cultural and societal problems. Most of your population is completely unaware of the Saudi economic situation, thinking that they live their current life because of the blessings of the monarchs. Not understanding that the whole country wouldn’t exist without the oil. And another thing to note is that Saudis are terrible at taking criticism, and that’s why they will never change.
I only wish your country the best. However, you guys have a heap of insurmountable problems that aren’t being addressed or even acknowledged.
The proven reserves of most all oilfields doubles with the advent of hydraulic fracturing.
No. Sandstone and carbonate reservoir rock is not fracturable.
no, not all oil reserves are suitable for fracturing
The point you are blatantly missing is that the Americans had literally no interest in telling the Saudis, let alone the rest of the world how much oil was there in the first place so that they can plunder in peace, secondly...even if they wanted to, they could only produce in relation to the demand back in the days so, no...they couldn't just overproduce to make more money if there was no one to buy and use the oil!
1 reason for the the reserves not decreasin is improvements in teconogys to extract more oil from a well
Now we're starting the countdown for Saudi Arabia, last week was China. Wonder who is gonna be next week.
Probably some eu member
Before watching this video, I have to say why would we imagine oil reserve estimations are done by the rulers of the oil rich countries instead of the engineers and geologists they hire and the CEOs and executives of oil companies?
The premise is weak at best.
It's conspiracy thinking.
However, I am open to the possibility of oil reserves of one country running out soonish.
I also think it doesn't matter too much, because we are going to have a major revolution in energy and that includes probably a huge collapse in demand for oil when non fossil fuel transportation becomes economically cheaper than ICE vehicles. It will also happen in the next decade.
Agree regarding the transition away from fossil fuels.
In fact, there is some good news coming out of China recently.
Chins has been the biggest auto market for many years. And the latest figures coming out of China suggest that 50% of all their new car sales is now new energy vehicles (EVs and Hybrids).
And the transition is only going to pick up speed!
@@ChinaSongsCollection
Yes, I recently heard that statistic. 50% ! It's great news. And American and European car makers are scrambling to sell cars there as well. But the electric car makers, especially Tesla are picking up the majority of sales. It's an amazing development.
I think a lot of American citizens probably can't imagine just how important the Chinese market is and they will be surprised when Chinese cars sell worldwide, cutting down the market share of today's huge leaders like Toyota and VW.
@@AWildBard Yes agree. So oil reserves aren't going to be such a big deal in 20, 30 years time.
@@AWildBard were do you think electricity for electric cars will come from, they will come from burning fossil fuels.
@@ChinaSongsCollection
@AWildBard
I wouldn't count my chickens before they've hatched.
The interesting thing is that the pivot to renewables is decreasing demand. Over the next 30 to 50 years petroleum demand will fade to essentially nothing. They have seen this coming and the old prince was trying to move their economy from oil.
True, as more renewable energy sources come online, it's going to reduce how much oil and gas is needed for those countries and with everything that is going on in Ukraine and the EU, it's very likely that the EU countries are going to ramp up renewable energy production a lot more over the next decade with the aim of producing most of its energy internally.
The pace of change is always dependent on need, before Putin used oil and gas as a political weapon, the EU and many countries around the world could afford to foot drag on renewable energy, now it looks like that is changing where energy security is becoming a real issue and that's very likely doing to reduce the need for fossil fuels a lot sooner than it would have been, especially in Europe and as they do it, others will follow just to stay competitive.
Putin's aggressive might have wiped out a decade or more of the fossil industry which is trillions being wiped out over the coming decades for those countries and the funny thing is, countries that buy a lot of oil and gas from external sources and they in time produce a lot of their energy internally by other means would stand to save billions per years which could go to other social programs whereas countries that depend on that fossil energy stands to lose a lot of money.
Honestly, it's in the interest of the fossil producing nations to stabilize the price of energy before rich countries go all in on renewable and alternative energy sources, to put it another way, the longer and higher energy prices goes, the quicker that industry is going to kill it's self off with the renewable energy industry being the likely winner, so as painful as it is having these high energy prices, I actually love it because this is what allows real change to happen in a much shorter space of time then it would have happened and the EU countries are primed to take advantage of that because they have to change now.
That's funny and also incorrect.
If Aramco is public and listed, their lie would be exposed when oil runs out and they would be sued by the shareholders because their lie hid the over-inflated asset thereby over-valuing their assets. This would be fraud.
Who would be sued, and where?
@@jimcherry685 just re-read the post.
Good analysis.
I’ve seen the sonar maps of the Gulf of Mexico. There is enough there to last for at the very least 100s of years factoring in increased demand. We were drilling for Saudi Aramco when the maps were shown to me. That’s just the gulf, so we aren’t running out for a very very very long time. We drilled the wells and capped them off. It’s supply and demand, and why would anyone give up their supply for pennies.
Can you provide more details?
this video is actually cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
Then why was the largest oilfield find last year was only 75 million barrels by Luhkoil?
Petroleum is not just for driving vehicles
Lot of other industrial chemicals including plastics
Problem is not supply. Oil price will go down if demand decrease when people get tired of importing from unstable or undesirable countries and switch to EVs and locally produced renewables
Charging an EV in your home is equal to running 40 refrigerators during charge time. I guess we can dam every river in the US then for renewables.
@@robbank8027 well, hopefully it's easier and cheaper than going out of the house and going to the gas station
I worked in Saudi Arabia in the early 1980's, wells were straight, shallow,and flowed with very good pressure.
I worked in Saudi Arabia in the early 2000's, The wells were much deeper, horizontal, with lower flow pressures.
The only new fields were gas wells.
I don't know how much oil reserves they have, but I know it is much harder and expensive to get out the oil they have.
Source: bro trust me 💀
He literally has posted all the sources in the " resources " section at the end of the video description 💀
The problem of the oil state is that it exports crude oil while it can generate many secondary industries and achieve more profits.
The issue of oil reserves changes annually according to exports and new discoveries.
I think the state of Ahwaz is one of the most important and richest oil countries in the world, but many people do not know it.
Saudi Arabia has undertaken many clean energy projects, and perhaps the oil will run out soon, or perhaps the environmental impact has become significant in Saudi Arabia. We do not know which is more dangerous.
Currently, Saudi Arabia has signed with Greece to be a station for the delivery of green nitrogen to the European continent
Search . ' What Was Saudi Arabia's Role in 911 . '
@@roysmith3767 ??
It's not that interesting about when they "run out", but it's all about when their production peaks, as that's when they lose their position as a world leading producer and swing producer that can control their production by producing more when the world ask and depends on them to do so.
The "run out" phase is also an interesting subject, since the current production rate is not natural but accelerated by injecting sea water in the oil slick to pressure the crude oil up. As a result, the "run out" phase will occur quite suddenly. And dirty sea water does not sell well I have been told.
Even OPEC without Russia can't do much harm to oil prices.. that's why they included Russia and formed OPEC+
So called "renewables" can't be renewed without oil. Its a catch 22 situation. lol.
This guy made his own judgment on Saudi oil reserves based on false speculations and not so detailed research, but hey, he managed to attract 500k viewers. Congratulations!!!
Keep Hustling
what I learned today, they wouldn‘t have anything without the smart white men who digged for oil.
This insistance on tourism and friendliness to new financial opportunities also makes me think they are running out, but maybe its just greediness or just a new wave of capitalism
Yeah true
@@LogicallyAnswered nvm though, your video has very solid arguments, the wikileaks and the Trump threat makes tons of sense
this video is straight cap and i can prove it
th-cam.com/video/L5MrmOEZLDY/w-d-xo.html
The young generation has the internet and doesn't want to be Wahhabi extremists. It's as much a cultural change as an economic one.
@@disposabull What is wahhabi vs wahabi extremist? Tell me
I personally managed Saudi huge seawater injection projects in the Ghawar reservoir in the 1990's, which happens when oilfields are in decline. The seawater then contaminates the oil production stream and requires separation, or "cut" production. What happens is as easy production declines, more expensive production methods increase. Production drops off slowly in aggregate, as can be observed on the US North Slope production. The Ghawar reservoir is definitely in decline, and seawater injection kicks in past the halfway point. It is common practice to overstate reserves. Saudi Arabia has very little future past oil, as there is too much competition in that theater.
Schlumberger?
Something to remember about reserves of oil is that your talking about economical reserves today. As prices rise or technologies improve there will always, always, be more oil, especially in the middle east. Additionally the trend of that giant oil field group heads all the way to Russia. There's never been a shortage of oil just demand comes and goes...
More global warming, more benifits to Russia.. especially in agriculture and oil reserves
They probably were lying about their reserves..
Saudi: try me bish
The Saudi government may not be lying. In 2010 the company I work for happen to have been given permission to be on the premises of their newly started drilling project. I happen to have one american guy who works there, he said the reserves according to their estimate could last a 100 or more years.
The more crazy projects they come up with like line city etc, the more you know they are getting closer to exhaust their oil wells
There are enough oil to last the world another 200 years, the problem lies in whether extracting them would be worth the cost or not. With fracking and retorting we're able to extract oil from rocks, maybe in the future we'll be able to scrape more oil from the leached amounts within the earth surrounding previous oil reserves. When oil prices rise, more expensive extraction techniques would be profitable, and thus suddenly increasing countable oil reserves. Most likely, Saudi Arabia just counted every single drop of oil they have, not necessarily the amount of profitable oil reserve they have, for the sake of selling more oil.
Russia have more oil but it needs to discover and cananda also need to discover
I’m from SA , and I’m not in oil expert so maybe you’re right, but I have many friends that works on oils companies and the kingdom is pushing towards energy fields which don’t consent with your video especially with the high tech that aramco have rich , oil maybe in his way to end but don’t forget the huge amount of gas that has been discovered in the kingdom in the last few years & it’s big plan to convert to green energy ect.. , what I mean is your video is against the kingdom plan to steel the energy biggest supplement of the world
it wontmatter climate change would take some countries sooner than others but the middle east by the 2050 maybe even sooner wont be a good place to live , the middle east is heating 2 times faster than world according to new studies.. you think is hot now , by the end of this decade would be hotter and so on and so on ...ironic that the thing that makes your country rich is the same country the is gonna destroy it .. is sad really .
When I worked in the Middle East, the rumor was they had twice as much as the reported reserves to keep the prices high.
NOPE..... the declines from 'peak' Oil on any reserve is a slow.... gradual.... decline in output, NOT a fall off a cliff.