Should Ireland Join NATO?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 มิ.ย. 2024
- As the war in Ukraine continues, there has been a growing debate in Ireland about its traditional policy of military neutrality and whether it should now consider joining NATO. Having expressed its full support for Ukraine, and with growing Russian naval activity around its shores, the Irish government has announced a public consultation on its defence policy and future strategic alignment. But will it really go so far as to end its neutral stance in world affairs and join the Western alliance?
For much of its history, Ireland has clung to the principle of military neutrality. Originally defined as a way to set itself apart from neighbouring Britain, this controversially saw Ireland refuse to take up arms against Nazi Germany during the Second World War. It also rejected a US offer to join NATO when it was founded in 1949. Since then, neutrality has become a fundamental part of the Irish identity on the world stage. The Irish Defence Forces have been a leading participant in UN peacekeeping operations. But there are now questions about whether it is time to rethink the policy of neutrality. Many argue that Ireland can no longer afford to ignore changes in the world. This is especially important given Ireland's growing significance for vital undersea cables linking Europe and North America. More to the point, a stunning revelation that Ireland has had a secret agreement with the United Kingdom for seventy years that allows the Royal Air Force (RAF) to protect Irish airspace has called into question one of the main rationales for Irish neutrality. So, is it time for Ireland to abandon neutrality and formally join NATO?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Title
00:56 Neutrality, NATO and Ireland
01:49 Ireland: Location and Population
02:31 A Brief History of Ireland
03:37 The Emergence of Ireland’s Neutrality
04:53 Ireland’s Neutrality During the Cold War
06:11 Ireland’s Neutrality after the Cold War
07:28 Ireland, Neutrality and the War in Ukraine
09:42 The Case for Continued Irish Neutrality
12:31 Will Ireland Remain Neutral?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Irish Defence Forces
www.military.ie/
Ireland | Department of Foreign Affairs
www.dfa.ie
Protocol on the Concerns of the Irish People | Lisbon Treaty
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...
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NATO
www.nato.int
The Map Archive
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#Ireland #NATO #Neutrality
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The debate over Irish neutrality is fascinating. It differs from the other debates I have covered, for example, in Switzerland and Austria or Finland and Sweden. So, do you think that Ireland will give up its neutrality? And, if so, can you see it joining NATO? Alternatively, should it instead keep it in place? Or consider closer EU defence integration. As ever, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Love it when someone turns out to be brave after all.
Good work. Reposting.
Thx Prof. Once again shedding light on a situation in the world I had no idea was even going on. As always though, I am an observer of International Relations and Statehoods, I don't do outcomes, it's their decision. Have a wonderful weekend.
That isn't exactly true is it, I do support Ukraine. lol 99% of the time I don't do outcomes, unless it's something as obvious as an unprovoked attack. Cheers. 🍺
I have a question. Ireland is an EU state and has supported the EU sanctions on Russia as well as given financial aid to Ukraine via the EU to buy weapons to defend itself from Russia. To what extent is that neutrality? For a layman like myself it doesn't seem to be.
@@AB-zl4nh yea that’s the funny thing. Any country that joined the EU has a indented neutrality already. The only difference a political and economical alliance instead of a military alliance.
So it’s like they get all the benefits, except for being protected. Leaving them open to being messed with even if know everyone knows Ireland is already a EU Ally’s. It’s like going half way.
Notably Ireland, unlike austra and Switzerland, does not have “neutrally” from the constitution.
So Ireland can just vote to join and that’s it, while Austria would have to change their constitution, or atleast allow themselves to be sued and go through a supreme court decision.
I don't know if they will, but maybe.
The phrase "Canada can speak softly because America carries a big stick." comes to mind.
Ireland doesn’t tiptoe around the UK like Canada does around the US, probably because of the historical context and the UK wanting to improve its image.
Corporation tax in Ireland is 12%, massively undercutting the UK’s 19% (about to be raised to 25%), which hasn’t been received very well
@@alexanderkowal5710 The corporation tax issue is the UK's fault, not Ireland's fault.
@@alexanderkowal5710 i wasn't suggesting Ireland spoke softly because its afraid of the UK.
Nor Canada afraid of the USA, just that both can be softer on the world stage because they know the UK, USA and EU would never allow them to be harmed.
Neutrality and peace etc are a privilege that would be reconsidered if it weren't for powerful friends.
@@EdMcF1 I think you meant to respond to the other guy... Also how does the UK control Irelands tax rates?
@@xanderreyno Yeah... we like to make fun of Canada, but Americans view Canada like a little sister who's precious and perfect. I pity the individual that messes with Canada lol.
Millions dies or emigrated during the famine, not hundreds of thousands, in fact some numbers put it around 25% of the population !
There was no famine , famine is when there is no food . 40 Thousand ships left here in the 1840s laden with Chickens , Cattle , butter , cheese , corn , and plenty more for Liverpool and other English ports." Genocide" is what it was.
@@jennyomalley7634 The Fake Historical Narrative as the Grievance Culture of the Faiche Repoblichaine movement, the Erse Lickers of European Genocide is a deliberate policy of one race against another. There is no racial difference between the British and the Irish. Ireland was a fully integrated as part of the same democratic structures as England, Wales and Scotland,.
@@xunqianbaidu6917 Michael Portillo ex-Tory politician did a documentary on this. That lady is correct, the documentation is there to see.
@@jennyomalley7634 wrong you can look it up
@@24hrs365 No she isn’t correct
Really well done. Here's the thing: as an Irish person I hope and pray that there will be an informed debate. I THINK we have a relatively educated population but I'm never sure.
Thank you so much. I have faith that it will. Ireland has set the international standard for informed and intelligent public debate on difficult issues in recent years. It really is a lesson for other countries.
Weather you choose to join or not, NATO supports you through and through
@@JamesKerLindsay No offence- it doesn’t feel like that in Dublin. My my humble perspective our population seems to be slipping into silos of internet mind viruses. The rise of an extreme right wing, and the growing colourful tyranny of the extreme left are terrifying. I deeply wish Facebook and Twitter did not exist.
@@fiacmar Thanks. I know exactly what you mean. As a natural centrist who believes in moderation and balance, I worry about it too!
🆘 we ask advice 💥 but we mean approbation 🏴☠️ 🌊’s… in OUR LAND 🏴 lads n lassies 🎩 …….
Ireland's main political reason for neutrality is too spend as little as possible on national defence and this can also be achieved by Ireland's geographical location.
It doesn't hurt that the main excuse given for Irish Neutrality are the same people you have a secret pact with to protect your airspace and help monitor your waters. Just don't tell your people, coz you know - you have an image to uphold 'n stuff.
@@saundyuk spot on mark
Same goes for Switzerland
@@dannydonnelly8198 the difference is the Swiss are armed to the teeth. What does Ireland have, a tactical kite.
@@wolf6543211 am complete outsider from mexico, but as far as I see it, it has a sea around it.
Which is the best thing.
You should spend the money you spend joining nato helping the people in your own nation. Education, healthcare, affordable housing and etc.
Ireland would do well to steer clear of America's foreign escapades.
Exactly
Yup
Yeh. Set sails for Antarctica!
Standing by and letting Russia commit genocide is not "neutrality".
100% Neutrality is a badge of honour USA EU & UK have destroyed Ukraine with their warmongering and the European economy .who benefits Arms manufacturers. Stay away from these madmen Ireland
Whatever about joining NATO , we should definitely take our defense more seriously ,especially sea defence
Thanks. Great point. Yes, regardless of whether it joins NATO, it's clear that there is a growing debate about Irish defence.
@@JamesKerLindsay NO reason for Ireland to join NATO. The whole reason NATO was created was because of the Soviet Union. The whole reason it exists in 2023 is because of Putin's Russia which is headed to defeat. Ireland has no enemies and has no need to waste their money on the 2% GDP towards defense. They are in the same position as Austria who also opted out of joining NATO. There would be zero benefit to joining NATO at this time.
@@JamesKerLindsay Proud Irish man here, guessing your English?
Thus your opinion or attempt to understand Ireland 🇮🇪 or the Irish. We are world leaders in many things!
First country in the world not only with a opening gay and Polish immigrate leader ( not surprisingly his allegiance is not reflective off Irish people!
1st country in world to bar Cigarettes 🚬 in public building also 1st in 🌎 to legalised gay 💑 marriage.
But the Irish are and always will will hate the English first and foremost.
Especially Unfortunately 😕 due to people like yourself ! Abit of "research" on the famine your figures were off by MILLIONS and the effects on population figures etc
INEPT RESEARCH AND UNDERSTANDING
Sea defense from who? Russia is at a huge naval disadvantage. Russian surface vessels can be denied entry to all major oceans by the US or it's allies. To the Atlantic, at the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap. To the Pacific, at the Kuril Islands, and Korea strait/Strait of Tsushima. And to the Mediterranean, at the the Turkish straits
@@Mullet-ZubazPants In other words the Nato countries are subsidising Irelands defence
Really enjoyed this. Lots of arguments either way presented in a calm manner.
I have been desperate for news like this. You post exactly what I need to be seeing. I’ve been searching for a long time for someone like you.. Discovered you through the Ethiopian/Egyptian tensions video and I’m so grateful to be here.
Thank you so much Megan. That is so lovely of you to let me know. I really and truly appreciate the support! :-) I’m taking a couple of weeks off for a bit of a holiday, but good to be back with more videos at the end of August. (And might pop in a sneaky one before then.)
The purpose of the Irish Armed Forces has always been, since the Civil War, to protect the State from internal enemies. The IRA faction that fought and lost the Civil War was never reconciled to the Free State and its evolution. There have been some noted peace-keeping missions, but that is really just window-dressing and a puff for the political class.
I have a question. Ireland is an EU state and has supported the EU sanctions on Russia as well as given financial aid to Ukraine via the EU to buy weapons to defend itself from Russia. To what extent is that neutrality? Doesn't seem to be.
@@AB-zl4nh The Professor mentions this, there is 'military neutrality', which is Ireland's position, of not being in alliance with with any country, and not taking sides military in any way in a conflict, and the looser (lack of) political neutrality, where Ireland can give help that is not 'lethal' to a country such as diplomatic support, sanctions against the aggressor, providing money, food, fuel, clothing, medical supplies even vehicles, which is not aiding a belligerent. Ireland is not 'politically neutral' in the war, but militarily it is.
@@EdMcF1 so they are contrarian.
@@AL-lh2ht Always a winning policy for any state in Irelands position !.
@@AB-zl4nh as far as I am aware we haven't given any weapons and all financial aid given was for non military use. We may have given uniforms and Armour but nothing lethal.
The Irish have benefitted a long time from spending basically nothing on defence. Any attempt to move cash from schools and hospitals to tanks would be opposed by the public. And in fairness its understandable.
The average Irish person has only benefited marginally. Wealthy US corporations and a small minority of Irish ultra-wealthy have benefited massively.
But I agree, to the average Irish person, moving money from public services to tanks would be understandably opposed, even if it makes some degree of sense from a national security perspective.
Every country who values freedom should be playing a role in maintaining it, and that should include defence. What we see happening in Ukraine should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks orherwise.
We can just let The Black and Tans defend us I suppose🤣😂
@@Gary-bz1rf , Your statement is idiotic. NATO is a terrorist organization. A "hit" man for the globalist war mongers and international oligarchs. All wars are created by war profiteers. The "war" in Ukraine is a proxy war which is used by the international money men to break Russia into regions to be looted by the oligarchs. All the rest is a lie. You should look up Colonel Douglas MacGregor US Army and others in the US who tell the truth about what's going on in Ukraine.
To be honest, I don't think that Celtic Tiger ever moved enough enough cash into healthcare, public transport, social service and other stuff. Even though, there is enough money. Look at Germany. Do they have completely private, always-charging-patients healthcare? Do they need events to raise money for Mountain Rescue Service? I know, it is stuff of right or left approach but when Ireland said we don't have enough money for healtcare that is not quite true. If Greece, Spain and Bulgaria are in, Ireland can afford membership. There are few good reasons. First, being neutral now is like being neutral when seing brutal violent murder. Second, Ireland belongs to Western political and cultural space. Russia wants to desintegrate and weaken this space for years. They lead campaign of lies and manipulation. Behind every stupid conspiration that devide society and creating hoaxers' bubbles is this vile dwarf.
Thank you for your work! I love your channel and the topics of the videos
Your videos are very well explained . Keep up the hard work.
Thank you so much, David. Really appreciated!
I'm a retired service member from NATO member Canada and during my career, I had the opportunity to work alongside and train with, soldiers from a great many other nations; mostly NATO but not exclusively. We used to talk about the European "Big 4", in other words, the 4 major European powers which were not NATO members.... Sweden, Finland, Austria and Ireland.
What was firmly understood by all of us in uniform at the time but by very few civilians was that all of these nations were, to one degree or another, NATO members in all but name. While not official members, they were closely enough aligned, politically at least, that they may as well have been. This was particularly true of Sweden and Finland who we worked with very frequently and were for all practical purposes, fully interoperable with NATO but kept enough official distance to satisfy their populaces who still wanted to be "near but not in" the big club. We all knew that if the day ever came that if either or both made the decision to join, each could hit the ground running and would be a very valuable contributors.
I worked with Austrian and Irish troops to a somewhat lesser degree but was nonetheless impressed with both when I did have the opportunity to do so. As each is somewhat more removed from the actual threat, it's not surprising that they find seeking membership to be a less pressing matter than Sweden and Finland did but nevertheless, I have full confidence that should the day ever come when decisions have to be made, each will be firmly in our corner as they've always been.
I would warmly welcome both Austria and Ireland into the alliance as "official" members but I respect their decisions to keep things the way they are if that's what they prefer. I have never had a concern about either and I see no problem with them continuing as "partners."
You defend money printing power
Austria? it is enough to think how it behaves in the EU, to realize what Austria would be like in NATO.
Don't touch our 'neutrality', don't even think about it. The World needs countries where mediation of conflicts and diplomatic dialogues can take place. Also, a place where anyone from any side of a conflict can go without fear.
@@j.jwhitty5861 Anyone from any side? Really? You'd welcome Putin? Or Prigozhin? How magnanimous of you.
@@you_can_change_alias Not actually being in the EU myself, I would have no knowledge of that. I can only speak for what I do know which in Austria's case, is their military.
Many exhaustive comments but the fact is most Irish people cherish their country's neutrality and will always protect it.
dont get conned by usa and join their not defensive but offensive nato ! ALBA GU BRATH
Nonsense, the world is crazy, already the Russians are intruding in their waters and borders, maybe you do not know that, neutrality doesn't save anything these days,if you are Irish you will know about what the Russians are doing along your coastal borders already,so wake up and smell the rat. You expect others to protect you when evil come knocking,but you can't join to fight it.
Whilst we rely on British air cover from the RAF.
Don't kid yourself folks, we're NOT neutral in Russia's eyes.
Well said. Ireland joining NATO would make it lackey to the big powers. Better stay away from their vanity and politics.
@@franciscruickshank8794 NATO are ruled by US and are warmongers. We do not need to join a warmonger organisation. There is no benefit to Ireland. We had no business getting involved in Ukraine war. This was purposely done by traitors in Dail Eireann to pave the way for joining NATO. A referendum needs to be held on this issue....if there is a shred of democracy left in our country which is already under attack by unelected and unaccountable globalists 🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🍀
You tube brought me here. This topic was very interesting. Great video, good presenting, great video footage. Subscibed.
Thank you so much! A very warm welcome. :-)
Thank you sir for a very informative video on Ireland.
Thank you very much indeed!
Great video Prof. Ker-Lindsay, thanks
Thanks so much. I have been following this debate closely for the past year. I had been waiting for an opportunity to make a video on it.
An excellent, balanced presentation of Ireland military position. It's important for Irish people to hear the position been outlined from someome outside of the country. Thank you - Regards, Irish 60 year old man
Thank you so much, David. I really appreciate it. It is such an interesting and important debate. I have been following the discussion closely for the past year and had wanted to make a video on it for ages. I am glad it came across as fair.
1 - Russia can cut the cables at any point in the Atlantic. Ireland needn't be a factor in Russias calculations.
2 - During WW2 Ireland managed to deploy 40,000 uniformed troops in defense. Plus 60k local defense force armed partisans.
3 - Ireland is a member of CSDP, the EUs mutual defense, which is by law bound to help.
4 - Russias marine force is relatively small, its unlikely that Russia could successfully invade.
5 - Russias only aircraft carrier, the admiral kuznetsov, is inoperable.
Joining nato is like signing a Sioux aside pact.
NATO members seem to be targeted by elements from the countries bombed or invaded as in retaliation .. neutral states like Ireland haven't been subjected to retaliation attacks (AKA) terror attacks.
where have you been boy?
Viva Ireland from Ukraine
As an Irish person, I hope we never have to go to war. The last war we did was a civil one. It was brutal. I just hope that we are left alone. Of course, this will definitely change sadly.
It was an open secret that when combatant nations' planes went down over Ireland during WW2, Axis prisoners were held far inland under tight guard while Allied ones were put in "POW camps" close to the border (possibly directly on it and close to a town in NI, places like just south of Aughnacloy?) with only the most token security so they *could* easily get back to Allied territory and rejoin the fight.
The axis pilots were quite happy there too.
Wow thanks for that massive effort in the world war against a tyrannical and genocidal regime
@@michaelamos4651
Heh, heh! Yes. Not really too surprising that Ireland has endeavored to keep that secret!
@@michaelamos4651 We provided weather forecasts as well to the Allies from our weather stations along the Atlantic Coast. No German ever instituted a 'tyrannical and genocidal regime' over Ireland that was Britain.
@@michaelamos4651 You joke, but thats more then USSR did to protect their own supply routes. The USSR refused to even share weather data with Britain and America in the North Sea
@Prof James Ker- Lindsay:
Norwegian person here. First, thank you for these very informative videos! During the Cold War Norway constituted NATO’s Northern Flank alone. The northern parts of the country were most of the fighting was expected to take place in the event of a Soviet invasion, was seen as most vulnerable. Among others it was feared that a second Soviet strike force across the Finnish border. With Finland in NATO and Sweden granted security guarantees from the organization’s most important members (i.e., not Turkey & Hungary). With Finland and Sweden within NATO, Norway is not alone anymore, nor would we get to keep all the attention from Washington or Brussels alone for that matter. Could quickly become a double-bladed sword. During the Cold War Norway was an importer of help from NATO. Now Norway has ground forces stationed in Lituania and do air policing in Iceland.
Ireland is an EU-member, and as far as I know the EU has something like NATO’s article 5 but does not really have military force on its own or willingness to back this policy. The policy has certainly not been tested for real, and that may also be said about NATO’s article 5. Yes, I know it was invoked after 9/11- 2001, but what if there’s a real enemy facing NATO in the future like China or Russia?
As the video says, Irelands strategic environment and geostrategic location is changing. Just like Norway did after 1940. I mean, that’s why the Germans invaded and occupied my country during World War 2, and with an aggressive Soviet Union on the rise why we joined NATO. But has Ireland’s geostrategic importance changed just now? I think not. It has in my view been there for decades already since the country is located quite close to French and British nuclear sea based nuclear deterrence. Located in western France, and western Scotland. I’m a bit surprised the video do not bring this up.
What kind of military capacity would in my view Irland need?
- A navy and air force with surface & ASW capabilities to amongst others help protect French and British SSBNs, so Russia can’t snoop on them from Irish waters.
- An air force with fast jets to aid in the defence of the British Islands and the North Atlantic Sea lanes to North America, alongside the RAF & Royal Navy. Both organizations being historically small now.
-Long range air defence, and truck based coastal artillery with surface-to surface cruise missiles.
Comments?
Thanks. Great points. Yes, Norway was a key NATO actor during the Cold War. Along with Turkey, they were the only two direct routes into the Soviet Union. More generally, as you note, Ireland would need to focus on those areas where it could deliver the greatest contribution.
@@JamesKerLindsay Personally I think Ireland should join NATO for the reasons I mentioned earlier. Two world wars illustrated that everything needed in war except strategic air power will travel on ships past Ireland. Just as it will in Norway's case in a defence of the Baltics, Sweden and Finland. Irish membership will also fill in the blank that Swedish and Finnish absence in Scandinavia constituted during the cold war.
Crazy talk lads Irish person here we have always been and always will be neutral why should we send our boys off to murder people who never did a thing to us
Only realistic threats are far far away and would never be able to maintain a supply line also we are next door to Britain who im sure would not take kindly to potential enemies in the back yard.
We have been invaded twice in the last 2000 years by Normans and Vikings so its been a while plus our military infrastructure is almost non existent and the 2 per cent of gdp required would be far less than the level required to modernise. If the russians are gonna do anything they have t get thru nato and from what ive seennin ukraine they couldnt organize a piss up in a brewry...
very informative thank you.
Thank so much.
I think there are advantages for Europe in having Ireland neutral, but better armed and capable of seriously effective surveillance of its sea and air. In co operation with NATO. Take for instance the invasion of Iraq. Why the hell would the Irish, who have a great and respected understanding of the world and are respected by Arabs and Africans and others be expected to fight in some oil war with the USA and some token former great powers? Better to have an influential small country to call on in the United Nations. Don’t think NATO needs full Irish membership.
Can’t think of any advantage. Austria, Malta and Cypress are also neutral.
Iraq was not NATO.
Ireland would become one of the biggest naval and airbases contributing to the military support to NATO as it is stationed on the Atlantic. Iraq was run by a terrorist at the time, invading it was the best conclusion considering the threats iraq posed to its neighboring countries.
Fighting for the right cause is always better than supporting terrosists
We don't want any of that, so Idk why you're thinking up crafty ways to trick Africans into thinking we're on their side; we are, or at least our people are
@@lorcansnow2111 When were Africans mentioned?! Joining NATO is an exellent way to modernise our military and boost NATO with an atlantic base.
You need to realise that fighting for the right cause will always be better than sitting back and watching terrorists, or communists take over the world.
Irish person here. Excellent summation. Also, part of the reason originally for not joining NATO I understood was that having just left the British Union, Ireland was quite impoverished. We were almost completely economically dependent on Britain before/after independence and struggled to develop a less reliant economy for decades. So we could not easily afford to equip and train a decent sized force that could be contributed to NATO. A minor factor perhaps.
I’m a historian of Irish history and that also applied to why the Catholic Church also had so much power inside of the country for so long. Due to the nature of British colonialism, they wanted Ireland to be a breadbasket in a similar way Russia used Ukraine historically. Meaning that they did not have any sort of infrastructure or industrialization, this can be seen with social safety nets. In Ireland after independence relied on the Catholic Church to take care of things like welfare, education, healthcare, and family services as seen with the Magdalene Laundries.
Ireland should not join NATO. No need.
@@MCKevin289 True, but Ireland does not need to join NATO.
Still not a reason for joining NATO. No need.
Bet the RA would love to see Brits training on Irish soil.
As always Prof. James a fascinating and clear explanation. Thank you!
Thanks so much. I had wanted to cover this for ages. It’s so interesting seeing how and why different countries have formulated neutrality.
@@JamesKerLindsay Maintain your neutrality as much as possible at all times. Otherwise-God be merciful to you all.
Russia never invaded Ireland will nato help kick the British out of their country
@@Pinkpanther100x No need. There is a peace agreement in place that clearly sets out the terms of Irish unification when the people of Northern Ireland express a democratic wish to see this happen.
@@JamesKerLindsay 🎉🎉
Split NI into 6 parts.
Return to RoI one by one
Over the span of 18 years
So if you give huge breaks to tech companies to offshore their profits and have low numbers of employees on huge wages within a tax haven would that not throw the figures? Averages are not really representative are they?
It was not undisputably under one monarch until either Elisabeth I following battle of kinsale or James I after flight of the earls.
Previously it was under a patchwork of clan chiefs
Ireland was divided into 4 lesser kingdoms, and a high king ruling over all of them. Ever hear of Brian Boru? The O’Brien clan is named after him.
Thanks James that was very interesting and as as Irish citizen seemed to sum things up as they currently stand.
I have to take you up on one point that is VERY close to our hearts over here, Approximately 1,000,000 Irish people died of hunger and disease during the great famine and between 1and 2 million left the country in an effort to survive.
Perhaps you have access to figures that our historian s don't but what I can say is that in 1841 there was over 8 million living here and in 1851 there was 5 million according to the census papers.
Perhaps you could tell me your source s of " tens if thousands" or was "hundreds of thousands " either way these figures are incorrect and refer to human beings not ramdom numbers quickly chosen for TH-cam.
I apologise if I sound a little harsh but such a huge trauma cannot be allowed to belittled in any way.
Thank you, Eamonn. I understand the sensitivities over the figure. Many apologies. It should have been higher. In contrition, I hope Irish viewers will acknowledge that I felt it necessary to explicitly mention these horrific events in the video.
@@JamesKerLindsay no research was done for this video and it is click bait and nothing more. I will never watch another video made by this uneducated man speaking about things he clearly knows nothing about!
I agree Eamonn, and the population kept falling for the next century almost reaching a low of 4 million ( The whole island of Ireland ) in the early 1960s.. That is 50% of the population , apply these metrics to another country like China , that would be 168 million dead and another half billion scattered to the four winds over the century
Other than that Professor I believe your assessment, was very fair and accurate.
My Irish side of my family originate from Listowel Kerry. and most supported the Allies during WW2 and came to the UK ,during the late 30s ,and some were in uniform. .The most frustrating aspect of the IRA was that it determined that a United Physical, one country Territory (United Ireland) was the critical issue and NOT the Democratic will of the People of NI. Without EIRE joining NATO I cannot see how the IRA and it's sympathisers in the North can achieve their objective of a Forced Union with EIRE. .
Maybe Russia submarines and Electronic surveillance fishing boats sheltering of the West Atlantic Coast, similar to the 3rd Reich, may make EIRE think again.. !!!
I am impressed how you analyzed Ireland 🇮🇪 and it's neutrality,,nice one man,,,,,,,,South Africa
Really interesting. I am not sure the arrangement over air defence is much of a revelation though. I heard this many years ago. As regards the status of Northern Ireland affecting NATO membership, one only has to think of Spain / Gibraltar. One query, at 6:30 - Are you saying the purpose of the BFA is to deliver a United Ireland?
One of the purposes of the GFA was to enshrine in principle (and law) the right of the people of Northern Ireland to self determination. That includes the possibility of a United Ireland should the majority of Northern Irish vote for it in a legally accepted referendum (obviously assuming the Republic of Ireland agrees as well).
Northern Ireland being a part of the United Kingdom will remain the case until the majority of it's people choose not to be. The key word here is CHOICE. It's as simple as that.
@@saundyuk I am aware of that thank you. But I don't think that is what he said.
Prof. Ker-Lindsay - I appreciate how you always articulate an issue briefly, clearly, and with nuance.
Thank you.
On the contrary; Ireland's pitiful 'armed forces' are utterly incapable of defending Ireland against air attacks or a naval blockade.
To be truly neutral a country must be able to defend its neutrality, that’s why during the cold war, Sweden had an air force that was capable of defending its airspace from intruders from NATO and the Soviets at the same time if required. If Ireland wishes to remain neutral it needs to at least be able to defend its home waters and airspace.
I’ve been to Switzerland and it has a lot of soldiers and I’ve seen them practising in the woods. Keeping out of wars does not mean sitting on your backside. Switzerland even has a navy, just for lakes.
@@Joanna-il2ur They also have a very well armed civilian population.
Sweden would have opened its airspace for NATO on day one of the conflict. There were several informal agreements.
True. Ireland isn't truly neutral. It is happy to piggyback off of UK and US protection without actually having to 'pay' for that by joining NATO. Much like Iceland, they got a great deal
@@silverhost9782 but all deals come at a price...
The poll you quoted on joining NATO was from a behavioural science perspective and after 2/3rds had read influencing literature. The same poll showed 60% wanted to maintain neutrality. An honest broker would quote the statistic from the poll result with the same question of the earlier poll it was being compared to that showed a 70% result.
I have Irish roots as an American and I can tell you most Americans would say to remain NEUTRAL. Peace from America.
Why? Serious question. I’m sure the US Government would in fact far prefer Ireland to be a full and contributing member of the alliance.
Sean Lemass, an Irish prime minister once said "If Europe is worth joining, it is worth defending"- It is time we grew up as a nation and play our part in European defence
Concur, but we can do it outside of NATO.
I don't believe in joining nato for the same reason we didn't back then. As long as England has northen ireland in any way under its influence there can never be any allicences. The least are hero's deserve for spilling there blood for a people that England wanted to kill of is for there efforts to atleast be ending in britan acctusllt sorting out the mess in northen ireland and giving it back.
As an Irish man, il like our neutrality, but I think it's time now for ireland join Nato now, we are to comfortable thinking other Nations will automatically look after us, we have to grow up and contribute to democracy that made our country flourish,
WE ALREADY DO....WE ARE MEMBERS OF PESGO....AN EU DEFENCE ARRANGMENT.
And when you son or daughter gets brought back in a body bag, will you still keep that narrative?
You join and you can fight your own war you coward.
2million died and 2million left the country
Cheers!!, great vid, great to relearn history.., certainly that of the other side of planet..👍🙏
Since Eire has become much more socially liberal, many open minded people in the North would be willing to at least consider joining Ireland, particularly after the dogs dinner of Brexit.
Great, thorough, fair-minded piece. Thank you.
Thank you very much indeed!
Greetings from Ireland, the current funding of the Irish Defence Force has left it not fit for purpose, very low pay with a high number people leaving, the Navy has a lack of sailors, no rapid intercept jets, no radar, the list carry's on
Man, someone should invade ireland. Sounds like easy-pickins. I guess no country wants boat loads of potatoes as the spoils of victory.
So true . its embarrassing ? No?!
@@johnnywhite58 Very, not even an airplane for the Rangers Wing
Quite a few nations, including those who could actually afford one, still forgo having an air force as it's cost/effectiveness ratio is very low at the small end, and doesn't become worth it until you attain and maintain a high number of warplanes. For example, obtaining a mix of 50 various aircraft including interceptors and multirole fighter-bombers and their support infrastructure is still enormously expensive, yet is practically useless in its impact against anyone with a similar size force or greater. Likewise, against and adversary with zero aircraft, but equipped with ManPads and Mobile AA, those 50 aircraft won't make an impact.
Mexico have a large military but no aircraft because, although there's no bilateral treaty covering it, it's assumed that the USA would likely intervene if Mexico was ever attacked by a nation with significant airpower.
Éire has a similar assumption with the UK and much of the EU, and already allows the UK to do RRA interceptions over Irish airspace.
Éire doesn't need an air force, don't waste your money when there are allies who can cover that. You do need an army though; the world's not as stable as it appears on the surface and things can change very quickly. No excuse for low wages in the Irish army, you can afford that, so I hope you guys get that sorted out along with the Navy... just don't be using them against us ☺️
@@johnnywhite58 Is it? I'd rather the money is spent on education and healthcare than jets
Outstanding. Liked and subscribed.
Thank you very much indeed. And a very warm welcome to the channel.
👍😠
Didn't the uk use the excuse of the french and germans would use ireland as a bac door to england for years? Also ireland isn't exactly the frontline in europe is it?
What?
Who cares which country is on the frontline?? We shall stand united as Europe, the frontline is for ALL of us to defend!!
well ireland kinda was catholic so it WAS a backdoor for France for many years although it's compkicated of course
Ireland has one of the largest sea area to patrol in Europe granted we can't do it but lots of oil reserves and multi billion cables and pipelines if the cables are cut it would leave most of europe offline imaging what that could imply financially and cause havoc I'm a digital society
Ireland should "no way" join NATO.
The United States should get out of NATO and take our military and Navy home with us. Let Europe sort out it's own problems. Take a page from Ireland!
@@SeattlePioneersee ya then😂😂😂😂😂
Amazing assessment! I believe the cultural dynamics of Ireland would preclude it from wanting to join NATO. Given Ireland's historical & cultural dynamics, these would seem not to blend well with NATO being an American lead defense alliance, with the UK constituting as one of the larger political players in this alliance. Finland & Sweden changing their perspective is logical & is a rational political decision, but culturally, historically & politically, it does not seem to be the case for Ireland. But if the people of Ireland want to make the choice to join, a military alliance requires committments which result in both positive & negative effects. Article V might prove to be difficult to support given the United States has soverign territory in the Pacific, which is so far removed from Ireland's areas of concern. So Irish politicians might see joining NATO as a "Pandora's Box" so pragmatism would lead them to avoid that box.. Ireland like every other country in Europe know France's artificial political dream of EU defense is hollow, and would be a complete waste of their political capital. Thanks for your excellent content!!👍
The Pacific is not an area of concern for NATO. Article 5 can only be invoked if one of the partners is attacked in Europe, the North Atlantic or North America. If French territories in the Pacific such as New Caledonia were attacked, France couldn't invoke article 5, and neither could the USA if attacked in Guam, for example.
@@adrien5834 - like us in the Falklands. You're right but when it comes to the Americans they always bend the rules to suit themselves think Iraq and Afghanistan mind you well over a hundred British citizens died in that 9/11 terror attack so we had every right to fight side by side with our American cousins. I was led to believe that we had a clause that if anyone invaded Ireland then we would have to come to Irelands defence. But personally I think that it's a smart move for Ireland to join NATO. PUTIN is a fool he invaded The Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO and instead Finland, Sweden and it looks like Ireland are joining! Russia is no more! 🇬🇧🤝🇨🇮👍🇺🇦
@@shihtzu291 Sorry to tell you that we here in Ireland will Not be joining NATO.
NATO is seen as a Warmongering institution.
Ireland will continue to serve within the United Nations Peace Keeping missions.
@@gerardflynn7382 - NATO ain't no war monger at all if anything it's a safety net for the smaller weaker countries think Latvia and Iceland. It's security for all but with American, British and French nuclear weapons. No offence but your military is a bit of a joke (no fighter jets) your airforce is made up with planes with propellers! Hardly any decent navy ships and a army that's tiny.🇬🇧🤝🇨🇮
@@gerardflynn7382 That's unfair. The only reason NATO is seen as a warmongering institution is that it is constantly pushing for expansion and war. 😉
super analysis
Thank you Prof. Ker-Lindsay. Such an engaging, well constructed and interesting video. Very much appreciated.
stay neutral, stay alive.
Stay neutral, don't let these dangerous self serving crazies persuade you otherwise!
Lol like Ukraine should have stayed neutral huh? 😂😂😂😂😂Facts don’t lie, Countries are much much safer in NATO. Don’t believe me, just ask Finland and Sweden…there’s a reason nearly ALL former soviet blocks, ran to the West after the Soviet Union collapsed…now tell me, who’s more dangerous? 😂😂😂😂I don’t see nato countries running away to Russia 😂😂😂🤡🤡🤡🤡
@@LoveMyPeople04 If Ukraine had stayed neutral there wouldn't be a war so your argument is completely wrong. Not only that, but when the war is over there may not even be a Ukraine, so their decision couldn't have been more disastrous.
@@cdeford lol if’s and’s and buts….yeah yeah yeah, tell that to Finland and Sweden who is just joined..facts are the facts. EVERY country has the right to decide who they want to ally with. Russia has ZERO rights to tell Ukraine who to be and not be friends…get the fuck out of here man, you think this is back in the day? You’re funny..this isn’t colonial times homie
Excellent Derry Mullins
Excellent presentation. ☘
Thank you so much.
As an Irish man, i dont want Ireland joining NATO and i would be concerned about Ireland taking a role beyond a soley defensive position with regards to EU defense protocols.
But i do think we should be spending more in regards to defense in ways of modernizing our air corps with jets so we dont have to rely on British air defence and increasing the capability of our Navy since we are in possession of the largest fisheries and blue water territory in the European Union.
A form of armed neutrality akin to Switzerland where we can effectively defend ourselves in the unlikely event some other power was to involve itself in Ireland be it through the destruction of undersea cables.
I dont want to see Irish soldiers sent off to fight other mens wars on behalf or western hegemony like we saw in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.
But i do believe that we should be able to effectively defend ourselves relying on our own strength first be it from Russia or Britain or potentially in the event of unification from loyalist paramilitary threats.
Thank, you, the voice or reality and reason rather than some of the neutrality fantasists who aren't aware of our dependence on British defence for our airspace. So long as we rely on that, we're no more neutral than if we had our own air defence.
Could not agree more
Well said . I'm proud to say your a good irish person. 👏 👏
Your forget royals navy submarine protect all Ireland, you should focus get rid of the IRA , make Allies with uk , both military should be Great work together
Russia no threat to us. UK sending enriched uriuniam to Ukraine shows what there about.
Many people in Ireland want to stay neutral, historically Ireland doesn't have any natural enemies besides England. If anything the country needs give more money to it's defence force. An Ireland with a strong air force with good fighter-jet and air interceptor abilities would be help, along a better navy to defend undersea cables. Regardless of what it does, investment is needed.
Except England hasn't existed since 1707
Did the US blow up Nord Stream 2?
@@jj591 exactly!
@@johngough2958 does it make a difference who blew it up?
@@dannyboi4111 Of course it does. Why would we join a military alliance headed by a country that blows up international undersea infrastructure - especially if our main task would be to protect such infrastructure. Or do you get a pass if it's Russian-European infrastructure?
Very interestingly presented video, more balanced in perspectives than most local political discussions, perhaps you thought it not relevant, but Ireland has continually served as a US military transition/ refuelling base through Shannon, with little or no transparency provided to the population by Government , it is difficult for some to see how this squares with Ireland’s so called neutral state.
Thanks. Great point about Shannon. I had thought to put this in. But really good that you raised it.
I would encourage a review of the factor not discussed in the video concerning wider global geopolitical changes since Ukraine (and possibly a factor in the absence of a genuine and effective peace process) which are pushing NATO further from defense to intervention. Military power has been overtaken/overhauled by other soft powers globally, for which NATO has no operational or strategic answer or raison d'etre. Why join that. Should Ireland have fought in Afghanistan for 20 years relying on NATO allied support during the recent "rapid exit", and overthrown the Libyan government in the way NATO members did, or how about IRAQ because of WMDs? Leave the soft power to the likes of the CIA, MI6, and US State Department, inept as they can be they are better placed than NATO today to wage modern non-restricted warfare.
The rest of NATO doesn’t really need Ireland with its “vast” population of 5 million. From what we’ve seen in Ukraine, russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger. With Finland joining (and maybe Sweden) the alliance, they should be good to go.
Thanks as always for the video professor!
This is definitely something to watch closely. I like how you contrasted Ireland’s neutrality with that of say Austria, where constitutional neutrality is dictated by international treaty.
That said, even if legally easier to do than in other neutral states, it remains to be seen if those poll numbers move any further, at least while the status quo in Ukraine continues (I think predicting anything in geopolitics beyond the end of the Ukraine War seems impossible, because how it ends will have such major ramifications on the world)
Glad you mentioned the cables as well, that’s a huge component that we will see if a littoral war breaks out; of course just a couple of months ago we saw the cables cut (allegedly by a CCP merchant marine boat) between Taipei and its Matsu possessions near the mainland coast, knocking out virtually all communications with the outside world. Taiwan seems to view it as an inevitability that the main island’s undersea cables will be severed in the event of war; I’d say the same should definitely not be overlooked when it comes to the North Atlantic, and Ireland as you said is a huge piece of that.
Thanks as always professor for a measured look at the topic!
Thanks as ever, LocalLt. I had been looking forward to making this video for a while. (And it was also one of the most enjoyable to make, for some reason!?) It’s certainly provoked a lot of debate in the comments. These have been fascinating to read. It’s interesting how countries form their approaches to neutrality, and how it seems to become so deeply entrenched in the national psyche.
China and Taiwan are as distinct as Russia and Belarus.
He misrepresented the poll data with the 52% result 1) It was a behavioural science study not a poll. 2) Candidates read influencing material as part of the behavioural science aspect before voting. 3) He didnt use the results from the direct comparison question that was also in the same study that showed 60% wanting to retain neutrality even though his commentary was about making a comparison. Why would he avoid the direct comparison ?
The cables are not Irish owned but it is cheaper to lay them through Ireland. Should Ireland give up neutrality because of this accommodation or should the vested interests protect their own property. If it comes to it, the Irish people will say move the cables because giving up neutrality was never part of the deal . Part of Ireland is currently occupied. I dont hear any NATO member demanding the British get out unlike Russia and Ukraine.
@@Finderskeepers. Britain's occupation of Ulster is illegal and should be considered an act of war against the Irish race.
Hitler came from Austria.... what's your excuse?
Ireland presently has the best of both worlds. Although neutral, it can also rely completely on the fact that the USA, NATO, the EU (and the UK) would certainly rush to its defence if ever needed, which looks unlikely..
DID YOU RUSH TO OUR DEFENCE...IN NI, FOR THIRTY YEARS.....???
@@jjbiggmann5576 NI is not part of Republic of Ireland for now.
No, there is a diplonatic difference. Like ukraine, west want to help, but ukraine was neutral and the west cant send troops without war escalation. Western country only can help externaly. Nato is a protection system to avoid war with alliances.
@@jjbiggmann5576 NI isn't in the Republic. Even if the Republic was in an alliance, that would not be a triggering event.
That's a funny way of saying that they are neutral freeloaders like Austria. Nobody can attack them without going through NATO countries, and therefore they can claim neutrality without actually contributing to their defence.
It's one thing to provide humanitarian aid and very different to take sides in a war.
There will always be wars and we can't and shouldn't be like England, going around the world interfering in foreign conflicts.
Somebody has to. If Ireland was attacked by Russia that would be another foreign conflict to everyone but the Irish, we will send thoughts and prayers...
British military aid to Ukraine is not "interfering", it is preventing an ongoing genocide.
@@nickbreen287 the reasons behind wars are not the reasons that the media are telling you.
War is a racket.
@@SB-dg8hq That avoids answering the comment, who comes to Ireland's aid should Russia decide it needs it? Racket or not, Ireland would fall in hours unassisted, racket or not you will need help.
@@nickbreen287 Stop with the scare propaganda! there isn't a snowball in hell chance of Russian invading Ireland.
Russia wouldn't have gone into Ukraine if it wasn't threatened with NATO nuclear weapons 300 miles from Moscow.
The USA is very good at 5th generation warfare but it went too far in Ukraine.
whats the difference between gdp and gdp per capita? Irelands GDP is 504.2 billion USD (2021) so is there per person? everyone has on average 100k income? I think I once had a 10k income as my top pay
IRELAND | Time to join NATO? : No. Full stop.
They don’t have an army just a small Defense force
The idea of Ireland being in a miliatry alliance with the UK as a senior parter is unappealing to many Irish. To say the very least.
The senior partner would be the US. NATO countries co-operate militarily so that everyone can be defended. There is no political manoeuvrings in NATO. The armed forces of all members become brothers in arms.
As an Irish person there wouldn't be as many holding that opinion now as 20 years ago
Britain doesn't monitor Irish airspace or territory for Ireland's benefit more watching its own back door.
Its not really a benefit for us to have to watch your airspace for you.
@@johnnybravo9096
It does both, but unfortunately there is a gap in the defenses, because Ireland can't/won't build radar stations.
@@johnnybravo9096 You don't though. Ever hear of the Western Approaches? Google it. You might learn something.
The UK is protecting the UK. These overflights have been well-documented for decades and it is not an "explosive" revelation as the Prof suggests.
If Irish airspace is guarded as a result, call it reparations for the damage done to Ireland for 800 years. Cheap
You’ve got to be joking for 70 years british have patrolled over Ireland and increased patrols during wartime i.e. Cold War and now when Russia is trying to bully Ireland and your saying it’s for Britains own benefit shut up
@@johnnybravo9096 7}}ll
11 7.
Irish neutrality in WW2 is not at all controversial to the average Irish person, as far as i can tell its viewed as one of the more sensible decisions of Irish government
true
It did not make them pupular with the allies after the war and Ireland suffered as a result - politics is important
@@JohnLester-be8nv while that is true, ireland essentially had no air defence and would have been devastated by the blitz, with the choice between the certain deaths of thousands of civilians in an irish blitz or strained foreign relations with the allies the choice to remain neutral makes sense
Plenty of Irish men fought in WW1 & WW2 . Like my father. That’s enough. What thanks did they get from Britain. Irish need not apply. No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish! Maintain neutrality, but assist humanitarian efforts with other countries forces, Ireland already wear the blue beret of NATO
Yeah but i think they took neutrality too far when the prime minster expressed sorrow at hitlers death. Not saying he represents Ireland as a whole but it was absolutely diplomatic suicide
Is Switzerland in a similar position?
Good analysis! Balanced
Thank you!
As an Irish person I think we can offer more as a “neutral” country. As a small country we’re never going to have a big impact militarily but we can play an important role as mediators, peacekeepers etc. We don’t have a history of conflict with other countries (other than UK) which stands us in good stead when it comes to peace keeping missions. But we do need to spend more on military. I’d like to see our military budget increased inline with NATO countries so that we can at least protect our underwater infrastructure- data cables etc.
Stay away from NATO - it is toxic as hell.
There are other countries that wanted to stay neutral but where invaded (benelux in ww2) but I hope ireland is capable of pushing back any potential future aggression. With better tech comes easier mobility.
You should rethink your position
@@sainttimothy2230 And you should justify yours.
@@Redisia But from what threat? Ireland has no natural threats anymore, which has given Ireland leverage in its defence budget like no other country in the world.
well delivered ❤
Thank you very much indeed! :-)
By joining NATO you are basically signing your country over to the US, when their fiddle plays, the dancing begins.
Always wish the best for Ireland 🇮🇪
I wonder would you do a video on what happens if the Alliance were to become the 2nd biggest party in Stormont and the implications of that for the GFA?
id love to see that. the 2 party thing in the north has not really been working in the last year so maybe it is time for a change of the guard
Hard to imagine that Ireland would cooperate with UK(NATO member)on anything.
We do on a daily basis all our seas and skies are protected by the UK and Nato even joined naval exercises happen yearly
I think Ireland could have a lot to offer as one of the West's foremost neutral representatives, but as an island they are quite exposed compared to Switzerland and Austria, and their location on the shortest route from North America to northern Europe is strategically important. Not to mention all the intercontinental undersea cables. Anyone willing to make enemies with heavyweights like the US and EU is going to be completely unconcerned about upsetting Ireland. Once you're already in a conflict with NATO, there are no additional consequences for violating Irish waters or territory.
Honestly, I think Ireland's general proximity - or lack thereof, relatively speaking - from historically aggressive nations, puts it in a fairly safe position already.
Edit: False equivalences notwithstanding, Ireland's fairly far from aggressive nations.
@@DickNiaz26 Dunno, I recon Britain is pretty close...
@@DickNiaz26Have you never heard of the British Empire or something?
@@Sdakouls3you refer to the empire that hasn’t existed for 60+ years?
Is this a joke? Ireland is separated from England by the Irish Sea and Wales… Ireland was invaded and colonized first by the Anglo Normans then English and then British…
The reason there are still tensions in Northern Ireland is because of English ethnic cleansing through the Ulster Plantations. Pretty sure that could be considered aggressive….
The Irish Great Hunger could have had a vastly different outcome had she not been a British Colony.
Maybe do some research on British Rule in Ireland…
Ireland will lose a lot of soft power if they join NATO. Especially when it comes serious hot conflicts. Ireland and Sweden were some of the mutually trusted neutral countries during the cold war.
Whatever they decide on, I hope to see a united Island of Ireland in my lifetime.
No one trust people that are neutral!!!
Lol what soft power does ireland even have?
@@TheJewishAzovMember the Commonwealth members know.
All those countries that are sitting on the fence wrt Ukraine would side with Ireland if Britain started the troubles shenanigans again or of Russia invaded neutral Ireland. Most of the world, Northern and Southern hemisphere would side with the Irish because most former British colonies understand Irish struggles.
Ireland has a lot of soft power in the English speaking world.
The cold war still casts a long shadow over this 21st century, pro-US and anti-US factions viewed Ireland as a fair and reliable neutral state during the cold war.
@@user-cs4fg7bh4r Neutrality has to be backed by reputation. All wars have to be resolved eventually and that is why neutral countries are important.
Martin Luther was able to speak his mind in the diet of Worms because his safe passage was guaranteed. No one want to sign peace treaties under the barrel of a gun. Signing treaties under the barrel of a gun is the main source of resentment and reoccurring conflicts.
Hundreds of thousands died or emigrated during the famine? Alas, you may have missed a few zeros here. Almost uniquely in the world, Ireland's population is still noticeably less now than in 1850 after the catastrophe that was The Great Hunger
The UK always displayed a great ability to cause famine
@@yogikarl suffering in general
Yes, but today there are about 50 million people of Irish descent, of whom 90% live in the UK or its former colonies. If everybody of Irish descent went back to Ireland, the population would be at least six times as large as it was before the famine. The story of Irish demographics is not entirely confined to the island of Ireland. Far from it.
@@markaxworthy2508 90%..???....NO, ABOUT 20%.....MOST LIVE IN THE USA.
Yes millions died or emigrated
Very few Irish would approve of joining NATO I’d imagine, most of us rather neutrality
i would imagine if put to a vote bare minimum 80% would vote to reject NATO
I would prefer a strong army fews jets . Anti aircraft capacity ect . We can't just hope Britain and USA come to save us .
@@132467alanhttythfgfg perfect reason to join NATO. Russia won't attack a country in NATO, because the defensive alliance is obligated to respond to evil Russian attacks to member states.
It's easy to be neutral in practice when someone else is footing the bill.
The question is whether it's morally correct to be on the dole for defense when principles align.
This also applies to NATO members on the continent who avoid security responsibilities, e.g., Germany.
Interesting points.
I don't think there is an appetite amongst the majority of irish people. Also, given the many other crises in Ireland in need of government attention and resources, a massive increase in military spending would be deeply unpopular.
Of course not. They don't have an appetite for coughing up instead of freeloading of the Brits that they slag off 24/7!
because Ireland hasn't a neighbor like russia, imagine if Ireland have neighbors like russia then they will think about military spendings more deeply
@@sharingsharedudebro1236 Think about Irelands relationship with its nearest neighbour and try that comment again.
@@Ricky_Baldy yeah britain will invade ireland anyday now ireland need to join Russia federation ASAP, also ireland is in the EU.
@@sharingsharedudebro1236 Yeah, Russia is going to invade Ireland any day now. By the same token. And being in the EU is another example of why Ireland joining NATO isn't necessary.
The reason why the populace are so split and the polling so contradictory, is because every person I've met defines neutrality differently.
There are those who define it as strict military neutrality while being politically active. Some as complete neutrality, some as vague non-engagement while letting the Americans use Shannon for example. And the government's contradictory actions over the years doesn't help. So that's why this debate can be so difficult to publicly debate, because we each believe neutrality means different thing's.
Honestly given how stingy FG and FF are, I can't see it happening, and given SF don't think we're neutral enough and are lapdogs and apologists for Putin, don't expect it to change anytime soon.
For others like me who don't know the acronyms:
*FF:* Fianna Fáil (Soldiers of Destiny - The Republican Party), center-right party
*FG:* Fine Gael (Family of the Irish), center-right party
*SF:* Sinn Féin (We Ourselves), left-wing
ITS A BIT LIKE BREXTIT...HAHAHA.
Why are Sinn Féin apologists and lapdogs for Putin? Is there no Irish nationalist sense of solidarity with the many small nations that lost their freedom and homelands to Russian imperialist domination over the centuries? What Putin has been doing in Crimea and Donbas regions of Ukraine amounts to a crude Russian modern-day version of the Plantation of Ulster. Except if Moscow ruled Norn Iron, the Kremlin would have settled troubles long ago by deporting the entire population to slave gulags in Siberia-and lay desolate all that remains, so the original inhabitants won’t even want their national land back (like what Stalin did to historic Finnish territories stolen by Russia in the Winter War-where today close to 0% Finns remain).
Yeah I doubt it will chance simply because most people are not politically engaged and to such people the prospect of "abandoning out neutrality" seems like a bad idea.
Like neutrality everyone understands isbselfish thing to be so either you openly acceot as being selfish and self interested or you join the forces ;)
Thank you Prof. Ker-Lindsay - an excellent and very useful presentation.
It was millions who died or emigrated, not hundreds of thousands. The population decreased by 30-50%
That's the British perspective for ya
Irish lad here employed as a British Army Officer. Cant comment on what the politicians or civis think, but ive done 2 tours with the UN alongside the Irish Army - we all had a great time and none of us are interested in a NATO armed conflict
Amen!
Exactly, none of my sons will go and die for NATO.
@@footcrab as the ancient Irish Saying goes " we Serve Neither King Nor Kaiser " No to NATO
@@kurtpunchesthings2411 didn't realise 1914 was considered ancient ancient in contemporary Irish culture (well, I guess for the ROI its ancient history)
@@rhyancudor 109 years is indeed Ancient
They need to commit to increasing their Military Budget.
WHY...IS ENGLAND, GOING TO INVADE US AGAIN..??
Would rather we built homes than tanks.
Why is that then. Who exactly is Ireland protecting itself against.
NATO members spend 2% on the military. Russian colonies spend 60% on the military. I know what is cheapest.
@@hkonhelgesen Bravo, for the most uneducated made up comment. Russia does not have any colonies, so the second part of your comment is meaningless. Or if you are trying to be a smart ass, suggesting Ireland will become a Russian colony, because we refuse to join a alliance that has illegally Invaded other countries, I suggest you take a long hard look at yourself. Ireland will never join NATO.
Come on! get on board!
You'll have to buy in for what?
The main thing we should change is the triple lock. Its beyond ridiculous the the UN security council can dictate our own security policy. We should trust ourselves
Which of 'ourselves' should we trust?
The current gombeen trio of a purged Green party, the closet loyalist Fine Gael Blueshirts, or the brown-envelope Fianna Failures who sank the economy in 2008 and then sweated working people to bail out the parasitic 'p£ay€r$' £obbying them into subservience to neoliberal ideological £ockstep, while economically deporting yet another generation to Botany Bay?
Nord Stream demolition shows the purpose of Nato is the continued European extractive imp€ria£i$m under WASP direction.
Despite the best efforts of our qui$£ings the people retain their historic consciousness of the barbarism of militarism.
Keep up the PR-op-agenda barrage, the people will defend themselves, as the Union-Jackboots of Frank Kitson's death squaddies in the Paras and asSASsination thugs learned.
After a thousand years fighting the reich, there will be collaborators, and resistance. The reich, like all empires, designates such as 'terrorist', while spraying innocent peasants with Agent Orange (appropriately) and napalm laced with a tincture of depleted uranium.
Up your Great Game.
The threats to humanity are flat-earth territorial tribalisms in service to plutocratic parasites. The Irish people are not yet totally blind, though quite a few are dazzled by the media-polished bu££$hit of Nato and the mi£itary-indU$trial megalomaniacs.
Either way, Nato will not 'secure' anything but gluttonous militarists on the make. The enemy is already within.
Trust ourselves 😂😂😂
...we can't even manage parking cars off the footpaths, because sure "it'll be grand, what harm is it doin?", I don't think we'd be fit for a modern military and what it entails
@@eddy66t6
A modern military, last time I checked, entails indU$tria£ slaughter, amplified by mercenary science, up to and including thermonuclear sterilisation of the biosphere sustaining even the parasitic war cults milking their cashcows towards their $amson options.
No, I hope I'm not fit for such idiocy just yet.
Great analysis, James. Abandoning neutrality would mean Ireland could go to war without the legislature's consent. Here in the US , Truman got us involved in Korea, etc, without Congress.
No, it wouldn't. Irish person here. Ireland is considering codifying a new 'double lock' system of Government decision AND parliamentary majority requirement to deploy any Irish forces (over units of 12) outside of Irish territory and EEZ.
Ted even though nam wasn't sanctioned by the us legislative branches this was illegal and could have been stopped!
Excellent analysis thanks. While NATO membership makes sense, so does making the case and defending the decision to be militarily neutral. Eire is neutral while being one of the world’s most active peacemakers. As part of this it should, and appears to remain possible, for NATO members to extend their protection without requiring Eire to change. Both are significant ways to protect and project shared values.
Not mentioned is that Irish citizens are also free to become serving members of the UK armed forces, and many do. An anomaly that is brushed over, but they are in their own way a contribution to NATO, and much valued for that contribution.
Thank, Tim. Great point. Many Irish have indeed served in the British armed forces and made an enormous contribution.
Yep, served alongside quite a few lads who hailed from south of the border.
any Irishman who joins the British army is a traitor
As an Irishman I will be voting to preserve our neutrality.
Ireland isn't really neutral though, and rightfully so in the case of Ukraine.
Also, it benefits massively from EU membership - If something were to happen to eg. Poland, could we really stay "neutral" on that? It would project an awful image. Happy to reap Europe's rewards, but too "enlightened" to defend it.
Ireland's neutrality is guaranteed by geography and Britain. We get to free-ride because times are good - But if they go bad, we will need to decide whether we're in Europe because of shared values, or simply because we want the money.
@@UNSKIALzPSN
Ireland will hopefully never join NATO or any military alliance.
All it will do is create enemies that will actually attack us.
Just because we are in Europe does not mean we have to get entangled every time something happens.
I'm not going to fight and die in a pointless war.
Are you?
@@UNSKIALzPSN we’ll always be Europe man that’s simple geography but in terms of us being EU the answer is yes our government is greedy and corrupt as fuck, money money money, the people see none of it.
@@cagliari5984 I agree inequality has gotten worse since the financial crash - Particularly with housing. *However*, we as a people are so much better off now as a result of EU membership. The living standards rise has been dramatic.
Before that, we were the poorest nation in Western Europe by quite a margin. People would complain very quickly if we walked out.
One historical fact to note regarding Ireland not fighting in WW2 - In less than 30 years prior to the beginning of WW2, Ireland had fought three wars: WW1, the Irish war of independence, and the Irish civil war. I don't think it should be overlooked that Ireland war extremely war-weary, and joining the allies in WW2 would mean fighting alongside it's former colonizer less than 20 years after it gained (partial) independence. With that perspective, I think staying neutral seems understandable.
We actually provided 50,000 volunteer troops to the British army in WW2. Even the British openly state that.
We're just kidding ourselves that we're neutral.
@@2112jonr Irish troops who fought in WW 2 were treated badly by the Irish state when they returned. It was a matter of conscience for them to volunteer and not due to any actions on the part of the Irish state.
Interesting
As a Canadian, I would say the geopolitical realities making up the North Atlantic is in dire need of a rethink in terms of security. As the Western-most point of Europe and as the Eastern-most point of North America respectively, Ireland and Canada are absolutely integral to blocking and deterring Russian aggression towards our incredibly valuable electronic connections to our allies across the Atlantic.
I'm not Irish and have never visit Ireland (yet 😊), so I can't speak to the political relations with the UK, but it seems to me that the debate over Northern Ireland between the two as an argument against joining NATO is very topical and superficial; this is for the sake of international peace, not bilateral relations. Ireland's reputation as a peacekeeping UN member won't decrease if they decide to abandon neutrality in my opinion. In fact, joining the fight to deter Russia and their aggression will only be praised by NATO, the EU and most of the world and their integrated intelligence sharing systems within the alliance will only increase, including our ability to protect our valuable connections in the Atlantic. Their efforts that have already made have already received praise and an overall warm reception, as you outlined, James.
I support Ireland joining NATO. The era of neutrality, at least as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian war, is over. Finland and Sweden proved it, it's time for Ireland to follow suit, in my opinion.
We hope to see you working even closer with our alliance. Love to Ireland from Canada! 🇮🇪🤍🇨🇦
I thought a nation couldn’t joint if it had territorial disputes.
Thanks. Ireland and the UK don’t officially have a territorial dispute. Under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, Ireland gave up its constitutional claim to the North in return for Britain accepting the democratic right to Irish unification if and when a majority wants it.
It is not a territorial dispute, UK as the colonial power in Ireland decided to remain with certain parts of Ireland because they were bigger and more powerful and because they were a nuclear armed P5 member with powerful friends no one could do anything about it. In fact much like the Russians they refused to call the Northern Irish independence struggle a war and classified it as "the troubles"
@@michaelotieno6524🎉🎉
Split NI into 6 parts.
Return to RoI one by one
Over the span of 18 years
@@michaelotieno6524 This is fantasy stuff Michael. The UK partitioned Ireland to suit NI unionists who threatened the UK Gov with insurrection if it gave Home Rule to the island. Churchill offered Ireland reunification if our deep water ports were made available to the ALlies during WW2
There were no nukes in 1921.
The last sentence is accurate and saved you from a completely dead post
I think it will join only when Ireland is re unified
Which won’t be too long now
@@hugmc Sorry - polls show that even a large minority of Catholics in NI don't want reunification.
@@hugmc We can all hope.
I agree, hopefully Ireland will finally rejoin the UK and have all this shit dropped
As a person of part Irish decent it would be better if Ireland joined BRICS.
I simply love Ireland. I'm not IRISH myself, but have had many Ireland borne Friends. I also took an Irish History course that started with Ireland's first High King, Brian Boru, and ended with PM Sean Lemass, "The Great Industrializer" The Irish are indeed a great People on every level. Their History is phenomenal, and today they are a economically strong, modern, and highly educated People. The Republic Of Ireland's Military is of moderate size, but technologically advanced. They have several top tier Elite Units that compare favorable to the American Army Special Forces, Navy SEAL Teams, USMC MARSOC, or Air Force CCT.
Ireland would make a very strong and trustworthy member of NATO. I'd love to welcome them aboard. ERIN GO BRAGH!
Not sure about the elite units and the military is clearly too small but they have done some great work as Nato peacekeepers
@@ianbolton5403 Yes they are great peacekeepers with decades of very valuable experience. But they are also tiny, and tremendously unlikely to ever grow to a point where they could offer even a medium challenge to a small European country, let alone provide use in a large war effort. I support Irish neutrality for this reason.
@@ianbolton5403 THEIR RANGER TEAMS IN EXERCISES OFTEN BEAT OUT THE BRITS AND YANKS. THOSE BOYS DONT FUCK ABOUT LAD. GOOGLE WITH A CUPPA TAY FOR A WEE BITTA ENTERTAINMENT . . . ;)
Bye
We the people of Ireland are neutral. Our corporate government might want to join ,however we the people will never bow down to evil war mongering. No thanks.
Respectfully you are already protected by NATO by geographic location.
@@captainamerica6525 ..and what did that do for us in 2020 ..when we were attacked by american biological warfare and ludicrous w.h.o. directives ?
Yes! It was similarly a mistake for the United States to get involved in WWI, WWII or the Cold War! It was only that evil war mongering that has caused the United States to get involved in the world.
The United States should have retained the same neutrality as that of Ireland ---- "No entangling foreign alliances" was the foreign policy of George Washington, the first American President.
Or "America First" as stated by a more recent American President.
Let the world sort out it's own problems.
That's not for you to say, it's for democracy to say. NATO is nowhere near a "evil war mongering" faction. You pulled that out your arse there. Nothing evil about democracy. I'd love to see you try name one instance NATO has supported the wrong side, or mongered a war wrongly.
@@johnhnangle My post:
>
Well. You'll notice that I never mentioned NATO. I was talking about the United States, and the United States has been involved in plenty of questionable wars beginning with the 1898 war with Spain.
And my post was ironic in nature, with the prideful advocate of "We, the people of Ireland so proud of not getting it's skirts dirty with WWII, the Cold War and the current Ukraine war, among others.
I was suggesting that if Ireland was so proud of it's neutrality, perhaps it was a mistake for the United States not to adopt the same policies.
For example, the United States DID stay out of WWI until 1917 --- "Too proud to fight" as Woodrow Wilson said. That sounds like our Irish friend, does it not?
And while the Brits declared War on Germany in September 1939, the United States was neutral until GERMANY DECLARED WAR ON THE UNITED STATES in December, 1941, after the Brits had been at war for two years. Should the United States have made a point of avoiding WWII altogether, like Ireland did?
Would our Irish friend REALLY have been glad had that war mongering United States avoided war like, say, Argentina?
In short, what would Europe look like had that "war mongering United States" left Europe to settle it's own problems in WWI, WWII, the Cold War and the current war in Ukraine ---just for openers?
The irony is they survive on British protection so long as they don’t join NATO
OUR ONLY ENEMY EVER....HAS BEEN ENGLAND.....FUNNY HOW YOU VIEW US....BIT LIKE PUTINS CONTORTIONS.
That serves British and Irish interest, smart move by Ireland because they know that.
The relationship between the two is a bit nuanced
we need nor want anything from your country, calm down you british subjects calm down
Protection from who? The British are protecting themselves
Irish lad here. While it is true that due to our geographical location we enjoy the protection of NATO, however the only countries who are capable of invading Ireland are all NATO members. So the question ultimately boils down to do we in Ireland view NATO as a threat or do NATO view Ireland as a threat? It should also be borne in mind that the British Army actively recruits in Ireland, it always has done.
Free democracy's don't go at war with each other so don't worry about NATO vs Ireland conflict.
GDP needs to translate into average wage, as I am Australian i can only do context in A$ currently with the exchange rates the way they are, with the Australian exchange rate EXTREMELY LOW, in spite of continued trade surplus, the average wage in Ireland in THIS context is just 67% of t hat of Aus tralia, with the Australian dollar EXPECTED to ( but it might not) increase in 2024 by 30.76% thus making this imbalance more significant to the extent of average wage in ireland ) at these rates) at A$1.020 -per week in Ireland V $2,040 in Australia....................really interesting and you can visualise how some information warps the reality.