From western perspective, I don't think people in the west will understand China or any third world countries..... To poor people, democracy ,human rights, freedom of press etc are not that very big picture in their daily lives....what matters is livelihood and to get to financial stabilization...Any third world govt. Which can provide job and stability to the people is a good govt. And a good leadership...China is doing that...Look at India , a democracy in chaos, with countless poor citizens and does the western media cares about the lives of these people, not at all... Politics is not everything
Correct! I wish those write negatively about China should go to China for a tour. I heard that there are *FREE* ($1 0r $0 for 1 week) tour to China for those who are holding an Australia, USA or Canada passport. Check it out. Go and found out the true about china yourself.....
Not true, I've lived in both Western, Asian and African countries - spanning both the developed and un-developed areas of each of these continents - people rich and poor want a democratic say in how their lives are run, a free press to tell them what's going on around them and a government that's not killing it's own people. What you will find in poorer parts of the world is they are more concerned about the day to day struggles and have given up on their government providing the things you've mentioned - that's very very different from saying they just don't want or seek those things. The division is not within east vs west, 1st world vs 3rd world - or for that matter colonised and coloniser - the difference is and has always been between the rich and the poor, the educated and un-educated those with hope in their government and those who've lost it.
Yes, like in Syria a kid was asked that what's his biggest wish and he said (with tears in his eyes) that he want to eat dinner with his family in their own home (probably he was an IDP) .
If that's the absolute truth...America is weak and China Strong...but Obama absolutely made America appear weak.. So this mind fuck isnt quite that foundationally simple.
China is so laid back and relaxed and not totalitarian like the Western media portray it. I was in Guangzhou for two weeks and it was great. A real feeling of enterprise and energy. Unbelievable food. The toilets are dodgy though.
The government still genocidaly wipes out or kidnaps & enslaves people & tourist, especially muslims, in some parts of the country. Gaungzhou is the business tourist center of china. You were easily duped.
He said that he doesn't trust chinese data and then uses their so called "debt data" which doesn't include a fuck ton of shadow lending which is proping the economy up these laast few years which is the only thing keeping the growth around.
@@JohnDoe-gw7pu Nobody has evidence on shit from china for the most part, aside from the governments there, and even then I don't think the communist party in beijing knows it all. China is destined to follow the path of Japan though economically.
@@JohnDoe-gw7pu Nobody can prove anything, but It's pretty darn obvious they inject fuck tons of money, way more than any other country ever has into their economy at all times to keep the growth going at all potential future costs.
Let me paraphrase his question.. when did the west actually trust Russia after it become democratize ? Never once!! Thus, the neoconservative western politicians and media NEVER once stop smearing Russia (cold war mentality) and eventually China (feeling economic threat of being too huge and eclipsing the west and the US)... !!! And despite the speaker had lived in HK for years, his neocon mindset remains..! And don't bother to try to shape China and its political system to fit into the western mold.. ain't going to work !!!! After all, Russia had gone through that silly exercise..!!!! And China don't provide face saving effort to accommodate to US extra tariffs... China will response in kind. However, I cannot speak the same for Japan, S.Korea, Canada, and Mexico!!
PP C. The west eventually will accept China as long as China keeps his strong presence in his own region, On the other hand Japan and India would be the ones really hate it
Historically, before WWII, Britain was the world dominant power. After 1776, the USA gradually took over. She focused on domestic economic development, and was contented to leave the world alone until December 7, 1941 with the Pearl Harbor attack. Since then, she began to play a more active role and gradually began to dominate the world. Initially, she tried to keep world peace. As economic profitability becomes more and more important, her focus changed and she becomes more arrogant & cunning at meddling in weaker countries domestic affairs or bullying countries for their oil or preventing them from developing into their own nations. China does not have a history of world domination. No one help China rebuild during her most difficult years (although Russia did) after WWII. By her own people's sweat, toil, and sacrifices, China managed to develop and her people's lives gradually improve. She sold products at very cheap prices so that developed countries' businesses can make profits off of her. Now that China has become stronger, the US realizes that she cannot order China about. Why should China or any other country need to listen to the US? Unlike the US, China desires to to build economic co-operation, not political domination. This annoys the U.S. of course.. China is a free country and so can develop militarily to protect herself. The 2nd amendment in the US Constitution protects and allows her citizens to bear arms. China have just as much right to bear arms too. Imperial Japan was like Hitleristic Germany. After WWII, despite Japan's constitution that prevented her to increase her military spending, she has consistently supported US political aggressions against China. We all in Asia remember Japan and none of us trust her, (not her politicians anyway) - not South Korea, nor most Southeast Asian nations whose countries were occupied and our ancestors butchered. We don't forget these things. Depending on what the US President's agenda is/are, he either conveniently forgets about the American Revolution of 1776 or the 2,403 lives lost in the Pearl Harbor attack and drums up lies about this or that country so that his armament, oil or economically greedy buddy friends can profit from those lies and propaganda. What does this tells us about US politicians after WWII? Self centered, Machiaevallistic, prejudiced at will etc. who gives no thoughts about his citizens. The World is changing. We don't need the US to be Big Brother anymore. Solve your own domestic problems first Focus on improving the lives of Americans who live below poverty level instead. ABC in-depth news videos have continually promoted, distorted and reported lies to everyone .To the US, anyone who does not want to be controlled by Uncle Sam is bad. Have you forgotten why your ancestors revolted against the British Empire? Because the latter tried to control you. You didn't like it, So you revolted against it. China and many other countries feel the same way too. We in Asia don't want the US to control and tell us what we can or cannot do in this world. The World belongs to us all, not just you. ABC and other media outlets in the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand along with other similar groups colludes to put China and other countries down. All these serve no productive purposes other than to prolong conflicts, continually causes inter-country disputes, inter-racial divisiveness and the deliberate instigation of deep hatred in humanity. Are you going to let these politicians and media use their skillful manipulation to promote their own interests, ruin your businesses or run your lives? Please be neither naïve nor quiet. Speak out in order that they may shut up. We want governments that will make positive contributions to her people and genuine friendships between countries so that this world can actually becomes a much better place.
this is an excellent presentation to understand what China has achieved during the last 20 -30 some years. It however, doesn’t touch much the real challenges China would face in the future. The speaker is very humble and reserve , so his opinions are very trustful and valuable to not only western scholars but chinese.
His opinions are definitely not trustful to Chinese but maybe informative. Chinese are not stupid enough to trust Westerners especially after all the experience they went through at the hands of Anglophone Fascism in the past
It’s rather difficult to predict what challenges faced by China, as it’s in future. It’s more important to ask how competent the Chinese government is than asking what challenges are.
Yes, you are right about that. Some people are not paying enough attention to what was entirely said or did not even finished watching the whole video and jump to a wrong assumption that Louis-Vincent was China bashing, in fact quite the opposite.
1ndy, China is not expanding, China is maintaining, safeguarding South China Sea is Chinese government duty. "imperialism" is a western word, not Chinese..
the guy uses too many economic jargons, so not everyone is totally clear about his position from the beginning, but his position is basically that of the China threat camp in the west, that China is going to be the next global imperialist power.
Yonghe Liu China will be always china, it's the best few thousands yeas ago and it will always the best. Whichever try to destroy China will have to take a every big cost with it, it will be the whole world. It this what it is.
Difference between Asia and the West: Asia focus inwardly and doesn't want to interfere other countries. West thinks the whole world has to be like them. I grew up in Singapore and know both sides of the world.
@11:00 Shandong is a major food producing province and importer of international food commodities for processing. Just because exports doesn't appear high doesn't mean the province is struggling. Louis and his company Gavekal are clueless on China.
@@wangyanzhao8475 : Wouldn't all foreign companies notice anything IF there's signs of higher risks in investing in China? Shouldn't all long term foreign workers, visitors and also short term tourists detect something if China is collapsing? Don't you think it's logic if China has survived almost 4000 years, shouldn't China survive some more years :)
@@KimJakab For your first question and second question, my answer is this: Most of foreign companies and foreign workers are in main few cities, like Shanghai, Beijing or Shenzhen. What they know can only come from what they see and hear. They cannot see collapsing from statistical data since those data are highly possible to be manipulated by govern. They cannot hear collapsing from internet or whatever since all social media are controlled by government. Even when Chinese people get angry and go to street, it starts from small city, not big city. For your third question, China doesn't survive that long. we had dynasties with centralized power around every 200 years. And every single of them collapsed in the end with blooded civil wars and great sufferings of people.
@@wangyanzhao8475 if a countrys economic is collapsing, it could not have enough resources for foreign investments like BRI. China is still keeping on huge amount of investment in foreign country, this is a proof that chinese economic is still very good. so your concern is absolutely with no proof. and about the history, your statement is incorrect. Every 200 years? Zhou and Han were survived much longer than 200 year. and Tang and Ming and Qing also survived over 250. your knowledge on chinese history is very limited.
@@KK-qi5gn Insulting people like a Chinese.. :D Ofc, my knowledge about history is very limited. I am not a historian. 200 years? 300 years? Who cares about the exact number? My argument is government of central power always collapses in the end. Please make yourself focusing on the argument, not insulting others with their limited knowledge. As for foreign investments, I don't how much left and how long it can be spent. 1 year? 2 year? Even the head of ABC bank has no idea about the true GDP growth of last year. How could ordinary people possibly know the foreign investment?
We chinese love your speech. its great. go on. Your understanding over China is based on your western thinking, the more you misunderstanding, the more time we have to get stronger. thx
an imperialist China, without exercising military conquest, establishing colonies, enslaving Africans, cleansing Indians. That is a true redefinition of what have been called imperialism
Im more and more disappointed in both medias and the goverments ability to deliver both relevant and balanced information. So im thankful that you do this.
The analysis of reality behind the official Beijing statistics was smart and illuminating. Nevertheless the "mercantilist empire hypothesis" is too strong. The strategy is obvious - China needs alternative trading partners, besides the US. So it is developing the Eurasian vector. Also, the Africa and South America connection. Additionally, it's finding a market for it's construction overcapacity. The significant difference in comparison to the US strategy is that China is bringing transport infrastructure and higher value-addeed industries to regions where development has stalled for 50 years. It is helping trade partners produce more in order to have goods to exchange with China. This is a non-hegemonic course. An empire would do quite the opposite: it would doom it's partners to the role of raw materials exporters and importers of finished goods. I would bet, if I had to, on countries where Chinese investments are bringing long-term development.
It is not necessarily non-hegemonic whatsoever. It is very tactful, in the sense, that you go to these nations who are desperate for infrastructure help and who have challenges they can't handle on their own, and you offer to invest or finance these projects (which is largely what China is doing). NOW China as a nation is projecting real power in an economic, and technical capacity. What is the end result? More deals in these nations to raw materials, minerals, oil and gas, etc. etc. etc. So China is expanding it's sphere of influence though trade and investment, but also making friends, and projecting power in the sense that if they as a nation have these capabilities to build massive infrastructure projects on time, and often with imported Chinese labor, and finance them, then they must also be a formidable military power, and these other nations now by default or defacto owe China the respect of oil, gas, minerals, etc. and developing those resources in the respective nations. It is no different than the World Bank or IMF or U.N., and how they operate, when nations cannot pay back these debts, -except it is more tactful, sly, and unobtrusive while playing or gaining the friendly nation card (and I'm not saying they're not). Just giving you a realistic perspective based on my studies. Do not believe the CCP is not actively studying and pursuing Western tactics (but in a more respectful and tactful way).
@@Sovereign_Citizen_LEO I'm a realist. When you help partners develop, they have more buying and exchange potential to trade with you. So you can sell more to them. It's a win-win outcome. Of course, that could also mean you are permitting a possible competitor to grow. But China believes in its future. Whereas the US does not. The US choses to be the least undeveloped instead of being among the most developed. (American Civilizationional DNA is that of a shrub. If it does not cover a maximum area, trees with deep roots and real trunks will grow and take the sunlight. "Area denial" is the nightmare of the US military. That's why it did it's best to suppress Germany, then Russia). Second, China is in no position to morph a mutual benefit relationship into an exploitative one (debt bondage), because the Third World countries it is investing in could always turn for help to the US or other former colonial powers. China will not, for many decades, be able to project military threat as far as it projects capital. In the extreme case, such countries could just default on the loans, if they prefer to leave the fastest-growing market in the world. So China will remain careful for at least a generation. There will be balance and prosperity. And notice that countries like Ethiopia and Kenya will in a few years be able to invest in "area denial" to both the West and, if needed, China.
I see a lot of comments claiming or insinuating that this guy is just another China basher but his entire presentation is debunking the negative predictions about China with data. This presentation is actually positive about China. In essence he says that China maintains adequate capabilities to overcome its problems.
GolkhadiBajya agree anyone who saying this guy is bashing China have a very low IQ... and I see a lot of Chinese bashing him, lol so there go the so call high IQ Chinese theory...
What was the last time you hear positive things about China? The speaker is right “nothing”. I am not surprised. As Thai citizen with Western education, I only consume western medias. But in 2010 my perception changed thanks to TH-cam. The rest of the world especially in Asia tends to give a more fair and unbiased view about China.
Excellent presentation once again to make the West feels good of itself. Nice job. My advice: just go to China to see the innovations, don't put your heads in the sand, and send your kids to learn Chinese, you still have time.
看完了整个视频，这个老外对中国的认识相当清楚，很有启发。此外倒数第二个问题对未来发展的看法也很有收获，构建法律体系保障知识产权，鼓励创新刺激经济。现在国家在做的事大体是没错的，创新经济也早就在喊了。 战忽局还要加油啊，怎么这种人都出来了。 This guy is just talking with his own experience, but media doesnt say so. Nobody trust Chinese data. Obviously the government is faking data cause China is going to collapse!
pretty decent analogy of Chinese debt and real estate, I particularly like his view about all roads lead to Beijing. it makes you rethink about quality of global leaderships and sustainable long term economic and foreign policy
This is 2022 now! I would love to see how these people think about China today? We not only haven't collapsed but only gone from strength to strength. So much so that even the mighty USA is having nightmares about us every night and sometimes even when they are awake. Great job by Louis-Vincent Gave predicting that President Xi will still be around in 2020. We already know that President Xi will be around till at least 2035 and we the Chinese people can't be more happier and feel safer knowing this fact moving forward. We wouldn't have it any other way!
The TH-cam comment section never ceases to amaze me as being a cesspool of unintellectual jargon and warmongering. China will be the next global superpower fairly soon.
First minute misinformation is there is no national ministry of propaganda. You have mistaken the party department of propaganda if not intentionally. For someone who have stayed in China that long, this mistake put your credibility in question.
As a Chinese it wonders me too, LOL...I din't get why they re acting like this guy is criticizing China or what, and it is 2019 now, it proves that most of the things that this guy predicted or tried to convince is fairly accurate and China have taken action for setting up the IP protection system much earlier than he predicted.
Most people don’t know how to listen and learn. They don’t get it and they never will! Must say Mr Gave gave a very cautious presentation based on published available data. He may have found the scale of Chinese data did not quite fit into the economic models that he learned from the West. He used data known to the public, made fair assessments of them and drew a fair conclusion.
Hhhhhhhh some of the comments are Chinese- Jokes, cus Chinese people loves to say something in contrast way. Yep, but some people might don’t be patient enough to watch the Video to the end, and some might just do’t good in English. LOL
How positive is it? He is actually telling his audience, in either way, chinese government is a lier.......the fundamental issue here is the white supremacy! Like the American police treat the black people there. Your guilty is predetermined and then they find ways to make it sounds justified.
@@abdeenn3 It means Amazing The way Author explained is Very beautiful Hidden Aspect of China's Economy.... I think Mr Trump will learn his lessons When ignited the trade war with " CHINA "
Also, he is talking of more important things then economy. He is talking of a policy that was designed to work in a process of 50 years. But the western politics is designed around 4 or 5 year of election period. While Chinese can design and implement a plan that goes for decades.
Looks dated already 10 months on.....having got China wrong consistently for over 50 years with this approach, it beggers belief to mindless continue in the same vein.
Interesting and provocative talk. Almost 2 years on, despite the trade frictions, it holds up. Add one point: In past 2 years China has clamped down on private assett capital flight, but not much change for corporate assetts.
I'm a little confused by the question, When was the last time you read a positive story about China. Since all the economic news out of China is good, why the answer is assumed to be "six months ago" is opaque to me. That is, every day I read about how good the Chinese economic miracle has been, how they're really taking action on the environment, et cetera. Yet, this talk asks, and attempts to answer the question, Why haven't we heard the good news? This guy isn't living in the same world I am.
Establishing first that China's propaganda was not to be trusted, then showing economic growth numbers from the very same source as his main counter-evidence, the speaker had a peculiar kind of logic at the very base of his argument. I hope Louis-Vincent's research is worth the money he receives from China.
I also don't see why china would want to underestimate its foreign currency reserves; that just strengthens the bear case for china (as he outlines if money is leaving the country that means chinese citizens are losing confidence) and makes the CCP look weak/incompetent. Large foreign currency reserves are unequivocally a good thing from the perspective of a central bank, especially for a country like china as it gives them a degree of immunity from sanctions. If anything the central bank is likely to overestimate than underestimate. I highly doubt they would make it appear lower just to make it seem that money was leaving china - what do they possibly have to gain from that? The idea that china wants to look weak when in reality is strong might be plausible if it weren't for chinese politicians/diplomats consistently doing the exact opposite; the whole goal of wolf-warrior diplomacy in my view is to overestimate your strength in an attempt to scare off your enemy
@@morisan42a country needs foreign reserve to pay debt to foreign countries. China does not owe that much to any other countries. Why would China accumulate that much IOUs?
@@ericshang7744 That's not the only reason a country accumulates foreign reserves, it's a way to protect yourself from foreign countries trying to devalue your currency, like if the US was trying to do this to China they could sell off a bunch of dollars to revalue the yuan in dollar terms
@@morisan42 if you are talking massive capital outflow, oh well, you can’t, under the current rule settings in China. Again, why does China need to accumulate massive foreign reserve? More specifically why does China need to put reserve in USD when it can store wealth in RMB?
@@ericshang7744 The Chinese government doesn't need to store money in RMB because it can print as much RMB as it wishes. These are government reserves of foreign currency. All governments keep reserves of foreign currency so they can sell/buy it during a crisis to bring exchange rates back to normal
Very intelligent speech, I think he hit the right spot regarding China's ability to sustain growth. especially regards to collapse of the Chinese economy. Which I think it's just wont happen. Interestingly he is also correctly predicted that the RMB is going to be stronger. It was the fact for the last two quarters of 2017.
the delusional this guy created here is: You can't predict China and invest smartly without purchasing his research reports. He surely sold his research well to these dumb nordic investors, almost as good as Lehman Bros selling sub debts to them about 10 yrs ago.
Dont think the propogranda department is behind the "bad news". My theory is the currency raiders are behind it, repeatedly. Are their government behind that is difficult to say. The prize is huge, and it not only set China back by decades, but shall end up having China enterprice for a song like what happened in Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea.
very thoughtful - china will not suffer an "anglo-saxon" crisis - just because of the strong state banking sector the cement-steel depression in the north east - is a normal maturity phenomenon - like in eastern germany after unification .... NO crisis, No business for GOLDMAN, JPMorgan and other elements of the FRONTRUNNING MOB in WallStreet
haha, keep going imbecile, show the world how much chinese knows about english swear words.....but you seem to be repeating yourself already.... you need to watch more movie and study more from your wumao script......
What a display of intelligence, pls keep going! How low can you get? You get paid by the number of posts you made, right? you have not met your quota yet. keep repeating the same words and different combination.....it is so amusing.......u need more swearing ideas?
China has very little US Dollar. Its central bank is hiding a debt of $32 trillion. China had overinvested and overproduced steel, cement, building materials, which it wants to dump on other countries. That is the reason it has created International Infrastructure Bank and One Belt One Road scheme so that it gives loans in kind to Pakistan, Turkey, Africa, and in future, China will demand payments in Dollar money. .Both serve the purpose of China and every other country get cheated.
You can tell this guy has never been to China. The only occasion this guy had an economic topic with the Chinese was through sorting out the changes after ordered a chicken fried rice. The same applies to the most people in the audience.
We'll speak again when China's $35 trillion debt bubble bursts... it won't be too long I reckon... My personal opinion is that China is going to have a revolution. When 200 million 农民 lose their jobs because of an economic crisis there will be revolution.
I agree that US debt is large. But you failed to include the debt from the Chinese shadow banking sector... www.businessinsider.com/chinas-shadow-banking-sector-is-exploding-in-size-2017-8
Currently China finds it difficult to invent from Zero to one but it beats USA hands down in inventing from one to hundred . As it is producing 4X STEM graduates than USA does, it will soon catch up in innovation. As far as the quality of its graduates is concerned, you have to just visit any top American university and you will find that Chinese students beat the Americans hands down in all STEM subjects.
The speaker mistook Shandong Province as one of of the trouble northeast provinces. Shandong has 4-6%growth according to his previous chart. LOL. What kind of research did he do? Labour from the northeast provinces do go to work in southern provinces contrary to what he said. Also, the slide that featured supposedly the name of the "Chinese Communist Party Propaganda Department" actually said "Report of the direct agency of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China." No where does it mention "Propaganda". Also it is most likely that you never heard any good things about china is not because the Chinese propaganda department has been sleeping. It is because the west has a inherent bias of any official report from the China Government. Good luck for anyone who use your research about China. LOL
China has already overtaken US and Europe economically by its concentration on resources, infrastructure and skilling up its people. All the acquisition and partnerships in Africa will be extremely important for further pushes in advancement in the years to come. While the West has just increased welfare, property prices, scaled down on resource mining and sale of their manufacturing base. (In essence swapping the productive for the unproductive.) No country, however powerful, can possibly survive or prosper without raw materials and losing manufacturing (and the skills that go with it). It is very dangerous to focus on just intangibles and consumption and leave little for tangibles and production because we can not be completely sure the allies we have now to cover for our deficiencies will always be there to support us. It is also very dangerous to think of everything in monetary terms and ignore skills, sovereignty and security. Land, resources, productive assets and productive people will always be worth something but fiat money always loses value. We must focus on value. Many productive assets should not be sold. Technology means knowledge can be transferred in an instant, making competition fierce. It is very unlikely for a new product to hold a dominant position for long now. Great examples are software, smart phones and cars. So patents are probably worth less and less because the time to capitalize from that protection is short before the next product, that does the same or better, comes out onto the market.
You make a very good summary of the economic realities, that those paid to make (senior civil servants, ministers and MPs) do not seem to grasp - to our detriment. Instead of being online, maybe you should be speaking in the House of Commons.
@@garethfox7702 I am a very unpleasant man because it is very difficult to sugarcoat everything as many MPs need to do to remain popular. Much of the public is deluded as well because as long as they get their sugar today (or to hear about it), tomorrow is too far away to think about. Any votes I win would be with a tiny minority of switched on people who really want to protect the country for generations ahead, to keep the values to remain competitive and to say no if it is not in our best interests. I remember challenging my MP over a decade ago about Education, education, education. I asked whether the market required that or was it to make parents feel good that their children could get a ticket to the better jobs (fantasy) and avoid all the unpleasantness of the realities in most work. Perhaps it was promoted to make the unemployment figures look better and to gain more support in the future. I said most work, in reality, is not terribly pleasant and the only way to get good at it is to confront reality early (to test the theory and remove all romantic notions out of people's heads) so that our young people can really focus on their work and improve at it, to deal with the pressure, to withstand the unpleasantness, build from it and go after all opportunities there. I said you don't strengthen someone by having them avoid all the difficulties, you make them confront their fears early, so at least they are prepared when hardship arrives later on. But of course what I said was too toxic for my MP, among many other topics.
China is about Infrastructure, development, invention, trade and stabilizing their economy, regardless of its historical economic data. The principals of the western world do not apply to the strategical development structure of China’s system. China’s system can be considered rigorous however, any nation that spends time on intellectual solutions and the progressive development of inventions, will be a nation that understands the principles of working together towards one common goal, regardless of its citizen’s class of their respective economic sectors. Therefore, China will succeed with its national aims and global intention(s). The world should see China as a example and understand the concept of “ONE NATION” which by extension can be considered ONE EARTH.
Just wanna put it out there that China has been and will keep collapsing. Its economy is unsustainable and has no competitive technology. Even its domestic market is shrinking! Chinese are barely literate and have extremely narrow worldview. Also, Chinese are so massively brainwashed and politicized that we have no capacity for maintaining an objective view of anything. No wonder there is almost no social mobility in China, unlike in the States. I truly admire westerners for being able to think critically and thus free from manipulative ploys, thanks to your great education and free press! You are born smarter and kinder than us anyways. Modernization = westernization, either politically or culturally. Keep up the good work, the beacon of humanity!
There are two types of ESL. The "Chinglish" speakers, and the ones who had to learn English in school and were graded on how well they mastered the language. This second rare kind of ESL is why I laugh when people think they are the best at their language because they are native speakers.
This is a company man, here on financial interests of his company, not in the general interest of western people looking to invest. He obviously didn't see the leader for life coming so I'm not sure he has his ear to the tracks enough to guide westerners on their investment dollars. Investing in a country with such counter interests seems rather short sighted. I wish the best for the Chinese people but I have no faith in a dictator regime.
That's ok China doesn't need your faith. They are doing just fine, and they and over 1 billion others vicariously will all be doing much much better. Meanwhile I suggest you look at what your own government iin the USA is doing... before it's too late.
I wanted to listen to what you have to say but after your first question, I switch off. Let me ask you a simple 1st question. Which country in this world do you trust their data, USA? BTW I am not from China.
From western perspective, I don't think people in the west will understand China or any third world countries..... To poor people, democracy ,human rights, freedom of press etc are not that very big picture in their daily lives....what matters is livelihood and to get to financial stabilization...Any third world govt. Which can provide job and stability to the people is a good govt. And a good leadership...China is doing that...Look at India , a democracy in chaos, with countless poor citizens and does the western media cares about the lives of these people, not at all... Politics is not everything
Jasper Haokip yes I fully agree. Singapore is one good example in the early independence days.
@Bugatti Boss So many faults in few sentences...
Correct!
I wish those write negatively about China should go to China for a tour. I heard that there are *FREE* ($1 0r $0 for 1 week) tour to China for those who are holding an Australia, USA or Canada passport. Check it out. Go and found out the true about china yourself.....
Not true, I've lived in both Western, Asian and African countries - spanning both the developed and un-developed areas of each of these continents - people rich and poor want a democratic say in how their lives are run, a free press to tell them what's going on around them and a government that's not killing it's own people. What you will find in poorer parts of the world is they are more concerned about the day to day struggles and have given up on their government providing the things you've mentioned - that's very very different from saying they just don't want or seek those things.
The division is not within east vs west, 1st world vs 3rd world - or for that matter colonised and coloniser - the difference is and has always been between the rich and the poor, the educated and un-educated those with hope in their government and those who've lost it.
Yes, like in Syria a kid was asked that what's his biggest wish and he said (with tears in his eyes) that he want to eat dinner with his family in their own home (probably he was an IDP) .
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” Sun Tzu
Hazmat I was just thinking that. I think we shall only realise that until it will be too late
If that's the absolute truth...America is weak and China Strong...but Obama absolutely made America appear weak..
So this mind fuck isnt quite that foundationally simple.
@@mellissamorrell5085
Who says the US engages in that practice?
RedRider1600 haha true at least he successfully mindfucked Mellisa morrell.
RedRider1600(
China is so laid back and relaxed and not totalitarian like the Western media portray it. I was in Guangzhou for two weeks and it was great. A real feeling of enterprise and energy. Unbelievable food. The toilets are dodgy though.
Live in Shenzhen and try to jaywalk. Money will come straight out of your bank account. It’s 1984 pal and it’s rolling out nationally next year.
The government still genocidaly wipes out or kidnaps & enslaves people & tourist, especially muslims, in some parts of the country. Gaungzhou is the business tourist center of china. You were easily duped.
@@newt7590 Any evidence on how the government is committing genocide?
@@JohnDoe-gw7pu Tibet
@@domzbu He probably hasn't read the book.
why do people dislike this talk? everything he's saying is absolutely spot on, even 2 years later.
He said that he doesn't trust chinese data and then uses their so called "debt data" which doesn't include a fuck ton of shadow lending which is proping the economy up these laast few years which is the only thing keeping the growth around.
@@ssssaa2 any evidence?
@@JohnDoe-gw7pu Nobody has evidence on shit from china for the most part, aside from the governments there, and even then I don't think the communist party in beijing knows it all. China is destined to follow the path of Japan though economically.
@@ssssaa2 So you admit you have no evidence there is shadow lending by China? You can't prove what you said?
@@JohnDoe-gw7pu Nobody can prove anything, but It's pretty darn obvious they inject fuck tons of money, way more than any other country ever has into their economy at all times to keep the growth going at all potential future costs.
Let me paraphrase his question.. when did the west actually trust Russia after it become democratize ? Never once!!
Thus, the neoconservative western politicians and media NEVER once stop smearing Russia (cold war mentality) and eventually China (feeling economic threat of being too huge and eclipsing the west and the US)... !!! And despite the speaker had lived in HK for years, his neocon mindset remains..! And don't bother to try to shape China and its political system to fit into the western mold.. ain't going to work !!!! After all, Russia had gone through that silly exercise..!!!!
And China don't provide face saving effort to accommodate to US extra tariffs... China will response in kind. However, I cannot speak the same for Japan, S.Korea, Canada, and Mexico!!
PP C. The west eventually will accept China as long as China keeps his strong presence in his own region, On the other hand Japan and India would be the ones really hate it
Historically, before WWII, Britain was the world dominant power. After 1776, the USA gradually took over. She focused on domestic economic development, and was contented to leave the world alone until December 7, 1941 with the Pearl Harbor attack. Since then, she began to play a more active role and gradually began to dominate the world. Initially, she tried to keep world peace. As economic profitability becomes more and more important, her focus changed and she becomes more arrogant & cunning at meddling in weaker countries domestic affairs or bullying countries for their oil or preventing them from developing into their own nations.
China does not have a history of world domination. No one help China rebuild during her most difficult years (although Russia did) after WWII. By her own people's sweat, toil, and sacrifices, China managed to develop and her people's lives gradually improve. She sold products at very cheap prices so that developed countries' businesses can make profits off of her. Now that China has become stronger, the US realizes that she cannot order China about. Why should China or any other country need to listen to the US? Unlike the US, China desires to to build economic co-operation, not political domination. This annoys the U.S. of course..
China is a free country and so can develop militarily to protect herself. The 2nd amendment in the US Constitution protects and allows her citizens to bear arms. China have just as much right to bear arms too. Imperial Japan was like Hitleristic Germany. After WWII, despite Japan's constitution that prevented her to increase her military spending, she has consistently supported US political aggressions against China. We all in Asia remember Japan and none of us trust her, (not her politicians anyway) - not South Korea, nor most Southeast Asian nations whose countries were occupied and our ancestors butchered. We don't forget these things.
Depending on what the US President's agenda is/are, he either conveniently forgets about the American Revolution of 1776 or the 2,403 lives lost in the Pearl Harbor attack and drums up lies about this or that country so that his armament, oil or economically greedy buddy friends can profit from those lies and propaganda. What does this tells us about US politicians after WWII? Self centered, Machiaevallistic, prejudiced at will etc. who gives no thoughts about his citizens.
The World is changing. We don't need the US to be Big Brother anymore. Solve your own domestic problems first Focus on improving the lives of Americans who live below poverty level instead. ABC in-depth news videos have continually promoted, distorted and reported lies to everyone .To the US, anyone who does not want to be controlled by Uncle Sam is bad. Have you forgotten why your ancestors revolted against the British Empire? Because the latter tried to control you. You didn't like it, So you revolted against it.
China and many other countries feel the same way too. We in Asia don't want the US to control and tell us what we can or cannot do in this world. The World belongs to us all, not just you. ABC and other media outlets in the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand along with other similar groups colludes to put China and other countries down. All these serve no productive purposes other than to prolong conflicts, continually causes inter-country disputes, inter-racial divisiveness and the deliberate instigation of deep hatred in humanity.
Are you going to let these politicians and media use their skillful manipulation to promote their own interests, ruin your businesses or run your lives? Please be neither naïve nor quiet. Speak out in order that they may shut up. We want governments that will make positive contributions to her people and genuine friendships between countries so that this world can actually becomes a much better place.
Did you really type all of this???
Best presentation on China that I have watched - informative, insightful and fair. I would appreciate another one in year 2000.
this is an excellent presentation to understand what China has achieved during the last 20 -30 some years. It however, doesn’t touch much the real challenges China would face in the future.
The speaker is very humble and reserve , so his opinions are very trustful and valuable to not only western scholars but chinese.
His opinions are definitely not trustful to Chinese but maybe informative. Chinese are not stupid enough to trust Westerners especially after all the experience they went through at the hands of Anglophone Fascism in the past
It’s rather difficult to predict what challenges faced by China, as it’s in future. It’s more important to ask how competent the Chinese government is than asking what challenges are.
I've watched the whole video and this guy is actually saying good things about China so don't hate him.
Yes, you are right about that. Some people are not paying enough attention to what was entirely said or did not even finished watching the whole video and jump to a wrong assumption that Louis-Vincent was China bashing, in fact quite the opposite.
China is expanding its territorial waters in the South China Sea by constructing new islands which is clearly an act of imperialism.
1ndy, China is not expanding, China is maintaining, safeguarding South China Sea is Chinese government duty. "imperialism" is a western word, not Chinese..
the guy uses too many economic jargons, so not everyone is totally clear about his position from the beginning, but his position is basically that of the China threat camp in the west, that China is going to be the next global imperialist power.
dragondescendant1 that’s not safeguarding, before China made the move, the sea is public area
It's march 23. 2021
China still haven't collapsed....
You have a simple washed- mind
It’s 2024, China is doing great
@@SilverFox-p8hUnfortuntely the West still believes Gordon Chang inspire of his tremendous blunders.
Thank you for fooling others. We Chinese are very happy for your job.
we use VPN
Yonghe Liu China will be always china, it's the best few thousands yeas ago and it will always the best. Whichever try to destroy China will have to take a every big cost with it, it will be the whole world. It this what it is.
yeah living in massive pollution
woo, here we have a taxi driver talking about international economic and politics, legit!
can't, need to drive my taxi
Difference between Asia and the West: Asia focus inwardly and doesn't want to interfere other countries. West thinks the whole world has to be like them. I grew up in Singapore and know both sides of the world.
China does not like to interfere in other countries? You are a fool person. Wake up.
@@virginiabify you are the fool and asshole. Go back to your coffin.
The West is only 12% imposing What Asian need to do.
@@virginiabify you are not educated
@@adamabdullah1369 Asian will do whatever they want to do, not what America is dictating to them, they can dictate to EU
I think this presentation is very close to what is happening in China. Glad to see there are some cool headed people in the West.
Not talking heads like Gordon Zhang of FOX
Greatest and the most reliable lecture on what is China and where it goes.
@11:00
Shandong is a major food producing province and importer of international food commodities for processing. Just because exports doesn't appear high doesn't mean the province is struggling.
Louis and his company Gavekal are clueless on China.
He was talking about Northeast China, he compared Shangdong with Beijing and Tianjin, you don't even listen to what he's saying
@@MrAndrii11He does not know how to think😊😊
We have 5th of April 2019. China hasn't collapsed yet :)
Even if this video is more than 2 years old, Mr Gave said many useful things! Thanks!
Even it is collapsing, we don't know it. How do we know if there is no free media in China and everything coming out of China is all positive?
@@wangyanzhao8475 : Wouldn't all foreign companies notice anything IF there's signs of higher risks in investing in China?
Shouldn't all long term foreign workers, visitors and also short term tourists detect something if China is collapsing?
Don't you think it's logic if China has survived almost 4000 years, shouldn't China survive some more years :)
@@KimJakab For your first question and second question, my answer is this:
Most of foreign companies and foreign workers are in main few cities, like Shanghai, Beijing or Shenzhen. What they know can only come from what they see and hear. They cannot see collapsing from statistical data since those data are highly possible to be manipulated by govern. They cannot hear collapsing from internet or whatever since all social media are controlled by government. Even when Chinese people get angry and go to street, it starts from small city, not big city.
For your third question, China doesn't survive that long. we had dynasties with centralized power around every 200 years. And every single of them collapsed in the end with blooded civil wars and great sufferings of people.
@@wangyanzhao8475 if a countrys economic is collapsing, it could not have enough resources for foreign investments like BRI. China is still keeping on huge amount of investment in foreign country, this is a proof that chinese economic is still very good. so your concern is absolutely with no proof. and about the history, your statement is incorrect. Every 200 years? Zhou and Han were survived much longer than 200 year. and Tang and Ming and Qing also survived over 250. your knowledge on chinese history is very limited.
@@KK-qi5gn
Insulting people like a Chinese.. :D
Ofc, my knowledge about history is very limited. I am not a historian. 200 years? 300 years? Who cares about the exact number? My argument is government of central power always collapses in the end. Please make yourself focusing on the argument, not insulting others with their limited knowledge. As for foreign investments, I don't how much left and how long it can be spent. 1 year? 2 year? Even the head of ABC bank has no idea about the true GDP growth of last year. How could ordinary people possibly know the foreign investment?
This man never saw the trade war coming --- so much for experts
The trade war is destroying the US economy, not the Chinese one.
None of pundits in the US saw Trump being elected President either.
@@bluemond5329 show proof
Excellent prestation, entièrement d'accord avec votre vue sur la Chine, vous etes dans les pas de votre père, continuez, merci.
We chinese love your speech. its great. go on. Your understanding over China is based on your western thinking, the more you misunderstanding, the more time we have to get stronger. thx
As a Chinese I think he really sees the point. Thank you for sharing.
"china's imperialism" Jesus. OMG . Shit . I am Chinese who is working hard in the US. You just made me speechless
Deflation is fundamentally good for a currency. Thanks LV!
one of the best lectures. incredible scholar.
He turns idiotic at the end.
an imperialist China, without exercising military conquest, establishing colonies, enslaving Africans, cleansing Indians. That is a true redefinition of what have been called imperialism
这是我战忽局驻外同志吗？
嘘。。。
你没有听懂他说的，他是在赞扬中国的发展势不可挡。他对中国的发展很有信心。
他说现在国际对中国的宣传，说中国快要倒闭了，是中国战忽局的功劳，让外国人以为中国快倒闭了。
恩！新来的！好像是隔壁那个海归老王介绍的
嘘.....................
Im more and more disappointed in both medias and the goverments ability to deliver both relevant and balanced information. So im thankful that you do this.
The analysis of reality behind the official Beijing statistics was smart and illuminating. Nevertheless the "mercantilist empire hypothesis" is too strong. The strategy is obvious - China needs alternative trading partners, besides the US. So it is developing the Eurasian vector. Also, the Africa and South America connection. Additionally, it's finding a market for it's construction overcapacity.
The significant difference in comparison to the US strategy is that China is bringing transport infrastructure and higher value-addeed industries to regions where development has stalled for 50 years. It is helping trade partners produce more in order to have goods to exchange with China. This is a non-hegemonic course. An empire would do quite the opposite: it would doom it's partners to the role of raw materials exporters and importers of finished goods.
I would bet, if I had to, on countries where Chinese investments are bringing long-term development.
It is not necessarily non-hegemonic whatsoever. It is very tactful, in the sense, that you go to these nations who are desperate for infrastructure help and who have challenges they can't handle on their own, and you offer to invest or finance these projects (which is largely what China is doing). NOW China as a nation is projecting real power in an economic, and technical capacity. What is the end result? More deals in these nations to raw materials, minerals, oil and gas, etc. etc. etc. So China is expanding it's sphere of influence though trade and investment, but also making friends, and projecting power in the sense that if they as a nation have these capabilities to build massive infrastructure projects on time, and often with imported Chinese labor, and finance them, then they must also be a formidable military power, and these other nations now by default or defacto owe China the respect of oil, gas, minerals, etc. and developing those resources in the respective nations. It is no different than the World Bank or IMF or U.N., and how they operate, when nations cannot pay back these debts, -except it is more tactful, sly, and unobtrusive while playing or gaining the friendly nation card (and I'm not saying they're not). Just giving you a realistic perspective based on my studies. Do not believe the CCP is not actively studying and pursuing Western tactics (but in a more respectful and tactful way).
Chavdar Naidenov bh aSki see Raj@
@@Sovereign_Citizen_LEO I'm a realist. When you help partners develop, they have more buying and exchange potential to trade with you. So you can sell more to them. It's a win-win outcome. Of course, that could also mean you are permitting a possible competitor to grow. But China believes in its future. Whereas the US does not. The US choses to be the least undeveloped instead of being among the most developed. (American Civilizationional DNA is that of a shrub. If it does not cover a maximum area, trees with deep roots and real trunks will grow and take the sunlight. "Area denial" is the nightmare of the US military. That's why it did it's best to suppress Germany, then Russia). Second, China is in no position to morph a mutual benefit relationship into an exploitative one (debt bondage), because the Third World countries it is investing in could always turn for help to the US or other former colonial powers. China will not, for many decades, be able to project military threat as far as it projects capital. In the extreme case, such countries could just default on the loans, if they prefer to leave the fastest-growing market in the world. So China will remain careful for at least a generation. There will be balance and prosperity. And notice that countries like Ethiopia and Kenya will in a few years be able to invest in "area denial" to both the West and, if needed, China.
I see a lot of comments claiming or insinuating that this guy is just another China basher but his entire presentation is debunking the negative predictions about China with data. This presentation is actually positive about China. In essence he says that China maintains adequate capabilities to overcome its problems.
GolkhadiBajya
agree anyone who saying this guy is bashing China have a very low IQ...
and I see a lot of Chinese bashing him, lol so there go the so call high IQ Chinese theory...
Looks like these numerous haters just don't know how to debate properly.
Lots of Chinese commentators here behave like little kids
The red Chinese commentators will tend to react negatively if they hear ANY slightest negative thing about china. ANY!
This video was done in 1/2017. Time to refresh it in 1/2019.
What was the last time you hear positive things about China? The speaker is right “nothing”. I am not surprised.
As Thai citizen with Western education, I only consume western medias. But in 2010 my perception changed thanks to TH-cam. The rest of the world especially in Asia tends to give a more fair and unbiased view about China.
Excellent presentation once again to make the West feels good of itself. Nice job. My advice: just go to China to see the innovations, don't put your heads in the sand, and send your kids to learn Chinese, you still have time.
What is the last time you read positive news about China?
West cannot understand the east.
看完了整个视频，这个老外对中国的认识相当清楚，很有启发。此外倒数第二个问题对未来发展的看法也很有收获，构建法律体系保障知识产权，鼓励创新刺激经济。现在国家在做的事大体是没错的，创新经济也早就在喊了。
战忽局还要加油啊，怎么这种人都出来了。
This guy is just talking with his own experience, but media doesnt say so. Nobody trust Chinese data. Obviously the government is faking data cause China is going to collapse!
Qing Feng 你这个战忽局的同志不错，奖你个鸡腿😄
章局长退休了，北美局缺人了！
什么时候地下党这么厉害了，暗号都用的这么明目张胆。
你以为国外就没有看得懂中文的么？你这工作做得不细！
@@garrettgao5677 细还是你细XD
pretty decent analogy of Chinese debt and real estate, I particularly like his view about all roads lead to Beijing. it makes you rethink about quality of global leaderships and sustainable long term economic and foreign policy
You are wearing a suit from China
Great to see an intelligently delivered lecture based on facts and not fiction.
Shhh...you know nothing, John Snow
underrated comment
LOL, no wonder I was like: I've definitely seen this guy.
@@Lycurgus80ofsparta Absolutely
Rather say this man looks like a Persian.
This is 2022 now! I would love to see how these people think about China today? We not only haven't collapsed but only gone from strength to strength. So much so that even the mighty USA is having nightmares about us every night and sometimes even when they are awake. Great job by Louis-Vincent Gave predicting that President Xi will still be around in 2020. We already know that President Xi will be around till at least 2035 and we the Chinese people can't be more happier and feel safer knowing this fact moving forward. We wouldn't have it any other way!
The TH-cam comment section never ceases to amaze me as being a cesspool of unintellectual jargon and warmongering. China will be the next global superpower fairly soon.
Josh Tep a superpower and scared of TH-cam, google etc. Hahaha😂
Shinobi Mayjin hahaha. Brain is a good thing
Bulletshit, China under ruthless CCP will be doomed and it will collapse soon!
Ahahahaha in your dream idiot..
First minute misinformation is there is no national ministry of propaganda. You have mistaken the party department of propaganda if not intentionally. For someone who have stayed in China that long, this mistake put your credibility in question.
6:50 China's imperialism? Let's perhaps discuss the meaning of the word 'imperialism'. We can take US as a prime example...
Excellent video
Again, the comment section is full of Chinese trolls. Do they even understand this was actually a positive lecture about China...
As a Chinese it wonders me too, LOL...I din't get why they re acting like this guy is criticizing China or what, and it is 2019 now, it proves that most of the things that this guy predicted or tried to convince is fairly accurate and China have taken action for setting up the IP protection system much earlier than he predicted.
Most people don’t know how to listen and learn. They don’t get it and they never will!
Must say Mr Gave gave a very cautious presentation based on published available data. He may have found the scale of Chinese data did not quite fit into the economic models that he learned from the West.
He used data known to the public, made fair assessments of them and drew a fair conclusion.
Hhhhhhhh some of the comments are Chinese- Jokes, cus Chinese people loves to say something in contrast way. Yep, but some people might don’t be patient enough to watch the Video to the end, and some might just do’t good in English. LOL
战忽局的同志们是来捣乱的。
How positive is it? He is actually telling his audience, in either way, chinese government is a lier.......the fundamental issue here is the white supremacy! Like the American police treat the black people there. Your guilty is predetermined and then they find ways to make it sounds justified.
What about the fast trains. Compared to USA IT IS REMARKABLE
Thank you very much for this lecture.
You are absolutely a expert in term of knowing Chinese culture and engagement of war fare. Suzi art of war
After watching this video
One word comes to the mind
Beautiful...
kuldip suri
What do you mean by that ?
@@abdeenn3
It means
Amazing
The way Author explained is
Very beautiful
Hidden Aspect of
China's Economy....
I think Mr Trump will learn his lessons
When ignited the trade war with " CHINA "
Also, he is talking of more important things then economy. He is talking of a policy that was designed to work in a process of 50 years. But the western politics is designed around 4 or 5 year of election period. While Chinese can design and implement a plan that goes for decades.
Brilliant presentation in this topic. Most insight analysis as a foreigner
Nice videos, good analysis, sweet enough to be accepted by westerns
Yachun Lu why this video is sweet?
Chinese economic groth is rising no 1 in the world. long live socialism.
The best analysis about China I've seen so far...
guys! nothing he said about China is true! just blieve in your PRESS!
greating from China
Yes, we are living in a totalitarian state with no FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY! Save us! CNN and BBC are telling the truth!
@ Isn't that exactly why you need to come save us? Come on, help me!
Superb presentation.
hahahah, as a Chinese developer, you just don't know how big the bubble is. The vacanct apartments are EVERYWHERE!
Finally! I live in china for over 20 years and I agree with the man on all points!!!
Looks dated already 10 months on.....having got China wrong consistently for over 50 years with this approach, it beggers belief to mindless continue in the same vein.
chf gbp please paraphrase your comment, it's not quite clear what you want to say
Interesting and provocative talk. Almost 2 years on, despite the trade frictions, it holds up. Add one point: In past 2 years China has clamped down on private assett capital flight, but not much change for corporate assetts.
I'm a little confused by the question, When was the last time you read a positive story about China. Since all the economic news out of China is good, why the answer is assumed to be "six months ago" is opaque to me.
That is, every day I read about how good the Chinese economic miracle has been, how they're really taking action on the environment, et cetera. Yet, this talk asks, and attempts to answer the question, Why haven't we heard the good news?
This guy isn't living in the same world I am.
Michael Meo hahaha good for you
Establishing first that China's propaganda was not to be trusted, then showing economic growth numbers from the very same source as his main counter-evidence, the speaker had a peculiar kind of logic at the very base of his argument. I hope Louis-Vincent's research is worth the money he receives from China.
I also don't see why china would want to underestimate its foreign currency reserves; that just strengthens the bear case for china (as he outlines if money is leaving the country that means chinese citizens are losing confidence) and makes the CCP look weak/incompetent. Large foreign currency reserves are unequivocally a good thing from the perspective of a central bank, especially for a country like china as it gives them a degree of immunity from sanctions. If anything the central bank is likely to overestimate than underestimate. I highly doubt they would make it appear lower just to make it seem that money was leaving china - what do they possibly have to gain from that?
The idea that china wants to look weak when in reality is strong might be plausible if it weren't for chinese politicians/diplomats consistently doing the exact opposite; the whole goal of wolf-warrior diplomacy in my view is to overestimate your strength in an attempt to scare off your enemy
@@morisan42a country needs foreign reserve to pay debt to foreign countries. China does not owe that much to any other countries. Why would China accumulate that much IOUs?
@@ericshang7744 That's not the only reason a country accumulates foreign reserves, it's a way to protect yourself from foreign countries trying to devalue your currency, like if the US was trying to do this to China they could sell off a bunch of dollars to revalue the yuan in dollar terms
@@morisan42 if you are talking massive capital outflow, oh well, you can’t, under the current rule settings in China.
Again, why does China need to accumulate massive foreign reserve? More specifically why does China need to put reserve in USD when it can store wealth in RMB?
@@ericshang7744 The Chinese government doesn't need to store money in RMB because it can print as much RMB as it wishes. These are government reserves of foreign currency. All governments keep reserves of foreign currency so they can sell/buy it during a crisis to bring exchange rates back to normal
这家伙演讲太狠了，搞不好战忽局年终奖全罚光了。
他最后回答的问题暴露了，水平还是有的
Thx! lads. I appreciate it .
Very intelligent speech, I think he hit the right spot regarding China's ability to sustain growth. especially regards to collapse of the Chinese economy. Which I think it's just wont happen. Interestingly he is also correctly predicted that the RMB is going to be stronger. It was the fact for the last two quarters of 2017.
The collapse already happened, don't be fooled
Western media: China is collapsing at any moment now.
Western media: China is too strong!
Westerners: Yes yes they are.
Charles peut être très fier de son fils!👌
Bravo Vincent 👏👏👏👏
Très belle présentation.
I've lived 4 years in Beijing. The fitur is Sino centric. Qu'on le souhaite ou non...
看完全部。演讲者对我国的未来发展（1/2017）相当正面。驳斥中国崩溃论。质疑国外媒体的唱衰是被中国拌猪吃老虎了。国际金融一些表述超越本人能力。总之中国面临些问题但似乎无致命之忧。
Great Great Analysis Mr Gave.
Yeah continue to be delusional. Continue to make the wrong prediction. It's fun to watch someone destroys his own credibility over time.
which part was delusional? what substantive do you have to say?
right... so you you can't actually refute anything he said - so you just type platitudes.
待化的冰 That's what he said, did you even watch the video?
salty 50 cent army
the delusional this guy created here is: You can't predict China and invest smartly without purchasing his research reports. He surely sold his research well to these dumb nordic investors, almost as good as Lehman Bros selling sub debts to them about 10 yrs ago.
Very insightful, many good points.
Goden chang?
when people, all over the world, can buy&sell stock, on any market in the world, for free, the world will be a better place!
这哥们的中心思想：战忽局战果显著，战忽局同志辛苦了。
Dont think the propogranda department is behind the "bad news". My theory is the currency raiders are behind it, repeatedly. Are their government behind that is difficult to say. The prize is huge, and it not only set China back by decades, but shall end up having China enterprice for a song like what happened in Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea.
一位长者曾经说过,闷声_______
给你一个赞，别的不多说，意会即可，哈哈
very thoughtful - china will not suffer an "anglo-saxon" crisis - just because of the strong state banking sector
the cement-steel depression in the north east - is a normal maturity phenomenon - like in eastern germany after unification .... NO crisis, No business for GOLDMAN, JPMorgan and other elements of the FRONTRUNNING MOB in WallStreet
It is really fun to watch the comments of the Wumao army. They dont seem to understand what the speaker is talking about....
I feel for you that your uncle do that to you as a kid....but you seem to enjoy it.......
Maersk1668 is this your vocabulary limitation？
haha, keep going imbecile, show the world how much chinese knows about english swear words.....but you seem to be repeating yourself already.... you need to watch more movie and study more from your wumao script......
What a display of intelligence, pls keep going! How low can you get? You get paid by the number of posts you made, right? you have not met your quota yet. keep repeating the same words and different combination.....it is so amusing.......u need more swearing ideas?
There could be more combination of those words, keep going
Do you trust American data? Free press is way over rated. Key word: WMD!
China has very little US Dollar. Its central bank is hiding a debt of $32 trillion. China had overinvested and overproduced steel, cement, building materials, which it wants to dump on other countries. That is the reason it has created International Infrastructure Bank and One Belt One Road scheme so that it gives loans in kind to Pakistan, Turkey, Africa, and in future, China will demand payments in Dollar money. .Both serve the purpose of China and every other country get cheated.
I'm chinese and I really enjoyed his points of view. Chinese innovation will be driven by governement policies in determining mercantilism.
economist China experts, what the joke!
You can tell this guy has never been to China. The only occasion this guy had an economic topic with the Chinese was through sorting out the changes after ordered a chicken fried rice. The same applies to the most people in the audience.
But do you really understand what he is talking about?
You're paid by the Chinese government aren't you!
We'll speak again when China's $35 trillion debt bubble bursts... it won't be too long I reckon... My personal opinion is that China is going to have a revolution. When 200 million 农民 lose their jobs because of an economic crisis there will be revolution.
I agree that US debt is large. But you failed to include the debt from the Chinese shadow banking sector...
www.businessinsider.com/chinas-shadow-banking-sector-is-exploding-in-size-2017-8
Currently China finds it difficult to invent from Zero to one but it beats USA hands down in inventing from one to hundred . As it is producing 4X STEM graduates than USA does, it will soon catch up in innovation. As far as the quality of its graduates is concerned, you have to just visit any top American university and you will find that Chinese students beat the Americans hands down in all STEM subjects.
区区50分钟视频，致使我驻外战忽局同志数十年功力白费……
The speaker mistook Shandong Province as one of of the trouble northeast provinces. Shandong has 4-6%growth according to his previous chart. LOL. What kind of research did he do? Labour from the northeast provinces do go to work in southern provinces contrary to what he said. Also, the slide that featured supposedly the name of the "Chinese Communist Party Propaganda Department" actually said "Report of the direct agency of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China." No where does it mention "Propaganda". Also it is most likely that you never heard any good things about china is not because the Chinese propaganda department has been sleeping. It is because the west has a inherent bias of any official report from the China Government. Good luck for anyone who use your research about China. LOL
战忽局注意隐蔽这个人很危险
我根本看不下去他的鬼话
我不觉得中国是过去三十年全球化的最大受益者。他只看到中国经济增长的表面风光，没看到新自由主义资本政策席卷下中国劳工为糊口拼命拿下微不足道的血汗钱的心酸，以及中国工厂受到的野蛮压榨。地缘政治的不平衡导致中国沦为制造工厂，这是极大的不利（西方不愿意要的扔给别人）而非获利。只是，中国人撑下来了，并且以别人无法想象的努力获得了预期外的成果。从百年前的列强践踏，到日本帝国主义惨无人道的残杀和侵略，再到后来几十年的内乱和政治运动，中国人从一片废墟上站起来，用几十年达成了别人百年未能达到的结果。这是我们民族从上到下共同奋斗的成绩，并非获利于别人的施舍。
问题是如果不被人剥削，你连饭都吃不起！去工厂打工相对务农也是一种进步！
Hehe...full of BS
Not really. He's pretty accurate.
It’s no surprise that’s another western press media give a negative comments on China, that’s not what I see while I’m there.
哈哈，真的有人说中国有战略忽悠局。66666666
同志，严守秘密，不要暴露
不要暴露了
man! this guy's a genius. less than 2% GDP growth in the desert and sparsely inhabited harsh landscape. damnnnnn! by his standards, I should be god.
来人啊！这人安排了
China has already overtaken US and Europe economically by its concentration on resources, infrastructure and skilling up its people. All the acquisition and partnerships in Africa will be extremely important for further pushes in advancement in the years to come. While the West has just increased welfare, property prices, scaled down on resource mining and sale of their manufacturing base. (In essence swapping the productive for the unproductive.)
No country, however powerful, can possibly survive or prosper without raw materials and losing manufacturing (and the skills that go with it). It is very dangerous to focus on just intangibles and consumption and leave little for tangibles and production because we can not be completely sure the allies we have now to cover for our deficiencies will always be there to support us. It is also very dangerous to think of everything in monetary terms and ignore skills, sovereignty and security.
Land, resources, productive assets and productive people will always be worth something but fiat money always loses value. We must focus on value. Many productive assets should not be sold.
Technology means knowledge can be transferred in an instant, making competition fierce. It is very unlikely for a new product to hold a dominant position for long now. Great examples are software, smart phones and cars. So patents are probably worth less and less because the time to capitalize from that protection is short before the next product, that does the same or better, comes out onto the market.
You make a very good summary of the economic realities, that those paid to make (senior civil servants, ministers and MPs) do not seem to grasp - to our detriment. Instead of being online, maybe you should be speaking in the House of Commons.
@@garethfox7702 I am a very unpleasant man because it is very difficult to sugarcoat everything as many MPs need to do to remain popular. Much of the public is deluded as well because as long as they get their sugar today (or to hear about it), tomorrow is too far away to think about.
Any votes I win would be with a tiny minority of switched on people who really want to protect the country for generations ahead, to keep the values to remain competitive and to say no if it is not in our best interests.
I remember challenging my MP over a decade ago about Education, education, education. I asked whether the market required that or was it to make parents feel good that their children could get a ticket to the better jobs (fantasy) and avoid all the unpleasantness of the realities in most work. Perhaps it was promoted to make the unemployment figures look better and to gain more support in the future.
I said most work, in reality, is not terribly pleasant and the only way to get good at it is to confront reality early (to test the theory and remove all romantic notions out of people's heads) so that our young people can really focus on their work and improve at it, to deal with the pressure, to withstand the unpleasantness, build from it and go after all opportunities there. I said you don't strengthen someone by having them avoid all the difficulties, you make them confront their fears early, so at least they are prepared when hardship arrives later on.
But of course what I said was too toxic for my MP, among many other topics.
He sounds to me like a socialist.
This video tells truth so far so good!
China is about Infrastructure, development, invention, trade and stabilizing their economy, regardless of its historical economic data. The principals of the western world do not apply to the strategical development structure of China’s system. China’s system can be considered rigorous however, any nation that spends time on intellectual solutions and the progressive development of inventions, will be a nation that understands the principles of working together towards one common goal, regardless of its citizen’s class of their respective economic sectors. Therefore, China will succeed with its national aims and global intention(s). The world should see China as a example and understand the concept of “ONE NATION” which by extension can be considered ONE EARTH.
Just wanna put it out there that China has been and will keep collapsing. Its economy is unsustainable and has no competitive technology. Even its domestic market is shrinking! Chinese are barely literate and have extremely narrow worldview. Also, Chinese are so massively brainwashed and politicized that we have no capacity for maintaining an objective view of anything. No wonder there is almost no social mobility in China, unlike in the States. I truly admire westerners for being able to think critically and thus free from manipulative ploys, thanks to your great education and free press! You are born smarter and kinder than us anyways. Modernization = westernization, either politically or culturally. Keep up the good work, the beacon of humanity!
There are two types of ESL. The "Chinglish" speakers, and the ones who had to learn English in school and were graded on how well they mastered the language. This second rare kind of ESL is why I laugh when people think they are the best at their language because they are native speakers.
@@ruofanyu6699 Thanks?
@@董等等 Lol I replied to the wrong comment. Stupid phone. Your English is pretty good though, my comment still applies!
This is a company man, here on financial interests of his company, not in the general interest of western people looking to invest. He obviously didn't see the leader for life coming so I'm not sure he has his ear to the tracks enough to guide westerners on their investment dollars. Investing in a country with such counter interests seems rather short sighted. I wish the best for the Chinese people but I have no faith in a dictator regime.
That's ok China doesn't need your faith. They are doing just fine, and they and over 1 billion others vicariously will all be doing much much better. Meanwhile I suggest you look at what your own government iin the USA is doing... before it's too late.
So what exactly is he trying to say?
He's a sore loser.
I am fine to have two "empires", U.S., and China to choose from.
Yes, China is doing great. But America has gotten poor. Homelessness has increased. Unemployment got higher.
When Louis-Vincent Gave mentioned national debt and deficits, I then realised he didn't know what he was talking about.
I wanted to listen to what you have to say but after your first question, I switch off. Let me ask you a simple 1st question. Which country in this world do you trust their data, USA? BTW I am not from China.