@@993bluezones9 No I am working on a separate model for that though ;) I translated my Excel model into Python so I could do a Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis though
To project the probability of a loan being in a days delinquent bracket in x number of months using a Markov chain, you would need historical data on how loans transition between delinquent states over time. This data would be used to estimate transition probabilities between states, and the Markov chain would be used to simulate how loans move through these states over the specified time frame.
If you have the probabilities lined up and the current stock or stage one data, I believe you can predict stage two, three, and so on, if you share with me some of the data, I might help you with that.
It is ok if the steady state is not equal to 1, the main importing thing is the probability matrix should equal to 1. every time you multiply probability matrix with current stock, you will get a new matrix until you reach the steady state.
THANK YOU, I'm trying to build a simple Markov Model in Excel for disease progression and this was so useful!! BLESS YOUR BEAUTIFUL SOUL
You are welcome, I am glad you benefit from this video :)
very concise, my markov model for fatty liver disease thanks you!
So, did it do well forecasting coronavirus? hahaha
@@993bluezones9 No I am working on a separate model for that though ;) I translated my Excel model into Python so I could do a Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis though
this is beautiful. straight to the point
I am glad to hear that
This is great, would love this model for a set of loans to project probability of being in a days delinquent bracket in x number of months.
To project the probability of a loan being in a days delinquent bracket in x number of months using a Markov chain, you would need historical data on how loans transition between delinquent states over time. This data would be used to estimate transition probabilities between states, and the Markov chain would be used to simulate how loans move through these states over the specified time frame.
Thanks for sharing, but current state should be the diagonal of mtx. Correct me if am wrong...
Beautiful, thanks!
You are welcome
👍
you welcome
by using three parameters like road density ,road geometry and traffic composition at one junction how can we make matrix can u sir is this possible
If you have the probabilities lined up and the current stock or stage one data, I believe you can predict stage two, three, and so on, if you share with me some of the data, I might help you with that.
hi do have smilier video for calculating the steady states in Markov chain
No, I don't have similar video, I will make one to calculate the steady state for the same video
you can calculate the steady state by checking this video
th-cam.com/video/qZUd6AO91Uo/w-d-xo.html
Mr.Anmar I have a question about markov chain
ı wonder this situation how can ı use this system for sports betting
I guess you can as long as you have the probabilities matrix
hi i need help in predicting the land transportation shift for the next five years, im really struggling with this paper
If you have the "Probabilities and Current Stock Matrices" setup properly, you should be able to find the steady state.
@@anmarkamil What if the steady state is not equal to 1 Sir ?
It is ok if the steady state is not equal to 1, the main importing thing is the probability matrix should equal to 1.
every time you multiply probability matrix with current stock, you will get a new matrix until you reach the steady state.
can I send you our matrix on email Sir? I just wanna make sure Im doing this right if its ok with you
@@claudettelato8614 ok
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