How the Fed beat inflation last time
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2022
- AND NOW ENTERING THE RING....THE SIX FOOT SEVEN INFLATION EATING DYNAMO, THE BANKER RATE BREAKER, THE VOLCKER SHOCK.
More info and sources at bottom.
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About a billion sources here, all better than this:
The full interview:
americanarchive.org/catalog/c...
Fed charts I use:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1...
The Fed does a ton of internal history. Makes me feel super bad about generalizing stuff, but if you want to go deeper, you can:
Inside baseball on the Volcker decision to go full monetarist (though they argue he wasn't for reasons I can guess at but don't fully understand):
www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/f...
Press conference where Volcker announces he's gonna throw down (sadly I couldn't find video, darn it):
fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/s...
Time mag cover:
content.time.com/time/covers/0...
Reagan and Volcker chillin':
• President Reagan's Pho...
Press conference with woman who hates Volcker:
• President Reagan's Fir...
Reagan reappoints Volcker:
• President Reagan's Rad...
Bernanke gives his MASTERCLASS (tm). This is also on YT:
www.federalreserve.gov/aboutt...
Greenspan gets sworn in:
• President Reagan's Rem...
Jerome Powell factchecking my video for free at Jackson Hole, just this Friday: • Jackson Hole Symposium...
Volker is like the commander on the battlefield yelling “hold!” As the enemy charges. The whole country looking at him with nervous eyes as they get closer and closer.
Very cool stuff, I love looking back in retrospect and seeing people’s resolve pay off when other people would have folded under the pressure.
Thanks for the great video as always Phil!
Haha good analogy imho!
I remember in 1979 going into the grocery store with a fistful of coupons my mom had given me, carefully clipped from the Sunday paper (including those now extinct double and even triple store-issued coupons), a list of items and maybe $2.39. Somehow it always added up to the exact amount she had given me and I would leave with eggs, tuna, toilet paper and saran wrap or some shit. I was nine.
While corporations are making record profits, it’s hard to see raising interest rates as anything other than punishing the working class for earning too much.
If only "too much" was enough
@@zaidlacksalastname4905 And yet for many people with obscene wealth, any amount is too onerous to pay 😓
That NewsHour studio had such a vibe. Virtual sets have nothing on old school news sets.
I wish I could see the sketches for designing that.
@@PhilEdwardsInc The irony is that my favorite news aesthetic is the 70s Tagesschau from West Germany, which was a chroma set, but man that vibe is unparalleled.
Man I love your style so much. You're the best educational channel here by far, keep up the great work and thank you!!
I love getting off work and coming home to a new upload. It's not officially Sunday until Phil Edwards puts out another bite sized piece of something interesting that you may or may not have been aware of.
Phil, I hope you see this, posted 6 months after the video's release. I started looking at your channel a few months ago when your government graphic design video popped up on my TH-cam suggestions list. I'm interested in typography and design, and I'm a government employee who sometimes deals with publications, so it looked interesting. Since then, I've caught up on quite a few of your videos. I've enjoyed every one, and I've learned something from almost all of them. I'm not sure how your eclectic approach fits in with TH-cam's channels, which seem to be divided by specific topics. But I hope you keep this up. I appreciate an all-encompassing approach, from oval offices to how making lace can prepare us for our AI masters. Please don't run out of ideas.
seen and appreciated!
Lovely stuff yet again Phil!
You know as a European and business school graduate I find it hard to believe certain decisions taken by the European central Bank, contrary to the more decisive, although also tentative, measures taken by the federal reserve (referring to raising the prime interest rates). It is interesting to see that although the EU is trying to forge it's own path, in many instances it still waits on the US to show the example to follow. It would be interesting to see a comparison between the different economic strategies employed by the two since the start of the Union.
Anyways, I love your videos. I really enjoy that many creators like you are creating quality content.
Have a good one! 👍
Yeah I am so ignorant of that, it’d be interesting to learn about. I’d also like to learn more about how the Bretton Woods thing worked.
actually, nowadays is ECB is much more conservative than the FED. The impression of followship from the ECB one may have is that the EU economy is tied to the US but with a delay of 6 months to a year which affect major indicators like growth, employment and inflation. The FED, once stagflation beaten, has never abandoned is goal of full employment. On the other hand the ECB being the successor to German monetary policy (scared forever by 20's and 30's inflation and its political consequences) has always put 2% inflation as its primary goal. In this regard the low interest policy of the 2010's is the natural result of 1) low inflation in the Eurozone and 2) low growth as well. One also needs to understand that against standard economic understanding this policy has failed to produced any significant inflation in the EU until 2021. This is likely because until the 2020 Covid pandemic, most of that monetary creation rarely transformed into actual demand from consumers and firms - most of it being funneled into asset markets, where another form of inflation took place.
Thank you for making fedral inflation intresteting and easy to digest 🙏
I think it was channels like yours that the internet was really invented for. So glad I found it.
I'm not smart enough to talk about this stuff and by the time I was born, Regan was into his second year as President. I do know that it's gotten harder to afford the same groceries that I've always bought. I have less money in my wallet after buying food for 2 weeks. I hope someone smarter than me is in charge of fixing that.
just about the same timing here too
You are smart enough, often times the smartest amongst the masses attempt to claim that they're not smary enough when in reality they're wrong. I know I'm a pretty smary guy but I often doubt myself.
Very interesting and of course timely, I find it interesting the whole concept of having to swallow that medicine as a society to help inflation stop. I’m sure there were many that suffered during that time :/ hoping there’s less of that this time around
With the highest level of consumer debt exposure? Good luck with that…
I love your vids, the style is entertaining and not youtube-y if that makes sense. It’s great, keep it up!
He works for Vox so he has a different style.
Really weird this video has not taken off. Gave me a lot more perspective of the 1970s inflation. I was already agreeing with the fed to keep going up on interest rates, but I was wavering a bit, but this has swung me. This explains why the fed is so strong to keep going while everyone else is complaining. Cheers.
i think part of what gets lost in this is the real human harm that each approach can cause. which is hard to quantify onto a chart.
Yeah totally - every choice ends up being a political choice, ultimately, because of those consequences.
Powell may well be on track to tame inflation faster than Volcker using Volcker's lessons.
"Back in March, Powell likened himself to Volcker, a former Fed chair who famously rolled out policies pushing interest rates to double digits. The inflation rate when Volcker presided over the bank topped out at 14%, compared to today's rate of 8.3%."
certainly seems like he’s following that example with what he said friday…
@@PhilEdwardsInc - My fingers are crossed, no doubt.
Super cool video! I agree. It’s always the people behind the scenes that have the strongest influence sometimes. It’s the man with his back to the camera. Thanks for Being fresh!!
love LOVE your videos, man. keep up the amazing work!
One thing is missing from the consequence of the Volcker shock: how it later informed economic policy advice. The super liberal policy recommendation made by the IMF to struggling emerging countries seeking its assistance and steeped in this "bitter pill" legend. It is because it worked for the US, and because it looks like brave action in the face crisis that it became the convention of the day, helped by the sense of superiority the US had gained surviving the experience. This is even regardless of the actual woes of said economies, which were prescribed shock therapy even when the reason of the crisis was not monetary in nature...
When you got all serious and said “Let’s get political…” and your background went dark, literally made me laugh out loud 😂
Great video as always! Have a great day 👍
P.S. when you make Phil’s Gaming & Reviews I’ll be your first sub 😂
thanks - likewise!
This was a great one! Thanks love the style of the video
Such a great video man!!! Genuinely loved the finance topic too. MORE! hahaha
Another awesome video, thanks Phil!
Who is fed ? Why is he beating mr inflation?
YEAH FED YOU BIG MEANIE!
So much of the inflation then and now has to do with energy prices. It's not just about interest rates and central banks. The whole economy had to adapt to that change in energy prices, which took a long time work out because of the way they played with interest rates.
The main reason the fed hiked interest rates is because I just started looking to buy my first house. Congrats to everyone who locked in 3% refi's.
Very good Phil
Great video, as always
Thank you!
Very interesting thanks 👍
Happy 35th anniversary of the Volcker interview!
Phil your killing it!
hey i noticed a typo in the captions where the wrong "breaks" is used instead of "brakes." Thanks for the educating content!
fixed - thanks!
Algorithmic punch
Dad borrowed and built a barn 79. By the time the shoddy builder issues were fixed every penny went to 18% interest. He made it but didn't buy anything. So I'm not allowed to complain until it's in the teens
Phil is cool with any color background. 🙂
I remember living thru that time and it was tough. At one point the only thing inflation fighters could think of was making "WIN" buttons. (That stood for Whip Inflation Now.) Of course it did nothing. But at least in the Volcker years, we didn't have to get involved in quantitative easing and tightening. In fact, I maintain that the problems we're experiencing today are still the aftereffects of all the stimulus injected to pull us out of the 2008 crisis.
Milton Friedman played a MAJOR role in that era…
I like your videos. Kinda different, in a good way.
thanks!
Back when they had smart people in the government and politicians would listen to them.
@@grapesurgeon I fully agree with you, my point is slightly different though, our leader across the globe if anything can benefit from listening to experts. Like how come there are leaders who deny climate change like that’s basic science.
Gravity is basic science. Climate change is extremely complex science.
Nice style of editing
great stuff and dont stop. odd and interesting topics. I hate channels that feel comfortable and half asz things after time. when you grow, invest in people to help you better it. dont sleep on your asz. well done.
That's not beating inflation, that's bugger it up untill everything falls apart than rebuild.
Please cover Lyndon Larouche. a socialist guy who tried working through the democratic party. started a large movement and was a perennial candidate in presidential elections
good idea! i'll add to my list. have to figure out how to headline that one..
Really interesting topic! I might have to rewatch it a bit to really grasp how higher interest rates equal less inflation lol.
Also! The slow, constant zoom in on every single shot where you're talking was kind of distracting, I don't think you did that in your previous videos, I like it better without that effect! Lol
noted!
Doing what needs to be done, unlike what Powell is doing right now.
To a degree, the only reason Powell has to do something is because the government won't. Pumping money into the economy during a recession isn't a bad idea, but you really ought to tax it back out after the recession has passed. That means increasing taxes, particularly on those that gained the most benefit from the turnaround as the recession lifted.
@@JimmyKip I disagree because inflation is always a monetary phenomena, therefore only they can fix it. They're the ones adding by buying bonds, while they can only remove it with interest rate hikes.
Sometimes we just need to rip off the bandaid
You should talk about how the Fed was created
this’d be a good one - i can start research with my main man ben b.
Hey Phil, love the channel. Been watching your videos for the last year. One thing I've noticed in your scripts is that you lean on adverbs a bit too much. Saying "... the jobs kind of do" takes the bite out of the sentence. Maybe this is an intentional style to be a bit more casual? Not all adverbs are bad and your writing is top notch! Thought I'd share. Thanks for the cool videos and have a great day!
yeah just a style preference! i may not change much but thanks for sharing
Genuinely didn't realize we had someone with a brain in government once. Because that kind of attitude of doing what needs to be done now instead of kicking the can down the road is what we need across the whole board.
At least the notion that economists have learned something from that example means that we won't have to deal with German marks levels of inflation like many have feared. Still would recommend having your most of your money not in bank notes and in assets to shield it from inflation, but hey at least it's not completely fucked.
It also requires a populace that is willing to believe the experts are actually experts and know more than they do even after 20 mins of conspiracy theory research on the web. How being an expert on something became a bad thing in America is beyond me... :-/
@@ailo4x4 it's not so much being an expert on something but being an elected official and saying you know what you are talking about is the disconnect. As a populace we are used to being distrustful of politicians. The woman that was asking Reagan questions about this guy is literally the exact same rhetoric that was used towards Nancy Pelosi (I've stayed out of politics for the last few years so I don't know what dirty laundry if any this person has). I had so many people driveling and foaming at the mouth spouting that chicks name and how she is the cause for all the problems in our nation. Everytime I tried to ask these guys what this person did to earn so much ire they couldn't tell me. They would start to explain and then realize they literally had no idea why everyone was collectively hating on them, they had just joined in on the outrage. I literally would have these people realizing how nothing their "political" beliefs are right in front of me. That's by far the biggest problem is that nowadays people will just parrot whatever the fuck outrage news comes out without actually thinking about how feasible it is. The fact I legitimately had coworkers that believed adrenachrome (fountain of youth harvested from like child tears or something rofl) was a thing speaks to how hollow these people's brains are and how much they just don't need to be going on the internet. They can't think for themselves.
Nice description lol
Every time when the interview is on screen there is a small orange dot blinking in the top right corner.
When I noticed it I couldn’t unsee it :(
Nonetheless great video!
whoa
Hmm, would that have been offscreen back then, due to overscan? (Analog TV signals had a picture that extended a bit beyond the visible area of most TVs, since for decades the typical CRT screen wasn't perfectly rectangular.)
Keeping inflation "under control" is now seen as normal and nobody talks about going back on the decision to practice inflation. The money in your hand shrinks unless you learn to act like a greasy investor. It's almost impossible to jump into a higher social/economic class.
Planet money? Summer school 7? anyone?
Phil, what exactly did you mean by "ghettoized" in this context?? You used it twice and I wasn't really sure how it applied. Great video, thanks!
oh just that it’s isolated, cordoned off in its own little world rather than mixed in with the broader history discussion
@@PhilEdwardsInc That's great. Thank you!
So I was too young to remember the early 80s problems, but today you can clearly see that the market ONLY cares about profits! Nothing can correct it but pain! Volker made history if you liked it or not ;) Can we LEARN anything from that period???? 😅😊
I like the videos but the lines across the archive video (like at 1:51) make my eyes feel weird. Kind of takes me out of the video rhythm, not sure if it's just me...
noted!
Is your office a greenhouse?
i grow the finest fake plants here
Who owns the fed? Seeing as there's nothing "federal" about it, the bank is private property.
I think that if the fed does it’s job and actually lives up to its mandate it can again curb inflation, but that’s always at odds with the political goals of those who appoint them and the current administration.
i wonder if the norm against saying the executive branch won’t interfere will blur in the coming years…
@@PhilEdwardsInc I hope not, because that just spells out disaster
why is it "Fed"? is that how Americans shorten "federal government"? i thought it was "Feds". this is bugging me as a non-us resident.
Yeah, I'd say that sometimes Americans shorten Federal to "Fed" (the Federal Reserve being the most common - but it's also used for law enforcement officials from the FBI, who are sometimes called Feds or the Feds).
That first Regan Press Conf from Jan 29, 1981 was his first one a President.
Yeah but how? I don't see how this dude implemented a specific policy to combat inflation
letting really big rates happen when nobody else would
I really don’t understand why people aren’t talking about an obvious solution to inflation: price controls! We used to do it in the past and it would be more quicker solution than a windfall tax.
This didn't work in the past. It prompted employers give employees healthcare, linking the two. This ruined our medical system and didn't reduce inflation
I know people turned pretty negative on them after the Nixon price control experiments seemed to only temporarily help (I don’t know enough to have an opinion).
As a guy who lives in Argentina, I can tell you Sir it does not work
What if instead of talking about 9.1% inflation, the media acknowledged the true rate of inflation of about 18%? American workers are experiencing unprecedented declines in their real incomes, which is why record numbers have been forced to work multiple jobs to make ends meet.
People are working and there is little or nothing to show for it. everybody is basically working to sort out one bill or the other. no savings.
Slight correction, low interest rates do put more money in the economy, but it can either grow the economy OR drive inflation up depending on how businesses respond to the money supply.
I’m a fan of your videos, but the quick cuts were distracting and annoying at the beginning.
noted!
Cool gamer guy Phil Edwards streams Fortnite for 20 hours.
i drank a ton of blue hair dye. that’s how it works, right? why does my tummy hurt so much now?
@@PhilEdwardsInc If you can afford it, I would go to the hospital.
@@NickRaven i spent all my money on fortnite character upgrades. :(. I can't feel my face, but my avatar can do the Macarena!
@@PhilEdwardsInc Perhaps that's for the best. Just, uh, be careful.
Forgotten is President Carter's backing of this bitter medicine . Reagan reaped the rewards .
Boop
beep
the real way to defeat inflation is to take a page from how the states deal with cigarette sales and invert it.
you see at a lot of gas stations "cigarettes sold at state minimum"
if a gas station tries to sell cigarettes lower than state minimum the station operator gets fined and arrested and charged with price manipulation.
no wonder why you like the picture you like janets hair
omg i have your watch, am i famous now
and cool
wazzup
sup
@@PhilEdwardsInc nice video btw
First
🏆
1st
second 🏅
Was I before the other guy who said 1st
@@SUB-20 No sorry, but you did get the SECOND medal.
I feel honored
Thank you!