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Totally agree ! but here in California , Mexican Drug Cartel are the only thing propping up housing prices , I know of no one who would buy a 3/4 million dollar old house that were fixers 10 times , transfer over and over again by illegal Aliens turned Residence since Bill crap head Clinton ! California is just plain Trashed
DEBT TO INCOME RATIO's completely out of control in California!!! I am on a single income, no dependents, and have a very good, full time career, with a fully funded pension. I'm living in California and HAPPILY still renting. I'll be completely honest, I don't plan to stay in California when I retire in about 15 years. From a financial stand point, mathematically I can not come to a positive cash flow situation where buying a home in California, makes any financial sense for my particular situation. Am I better off buying a home in a cheaper market, out of state? My calculations tell me to continue renting until retirement, and instead of buying in California, invest my money into an investment property out of state. Renting or short term leasing that retirement/investment home, most likely will generate a positive cash flow on top of paying off my mortgage. Does this make sense to anyone else? In my opinion, unless you are starting very young or plan to stay in California forever, home ownership in California has become a huge liability, not an asset. Basically California is turning into the Roman Empire, the rich taxing it's citizens to death and inflating the price of all basic necessities to control its population. How'd that work out for the Romans? Hmmm, history just repeating itself. JM2C.
It's DOWN! And then it's UP! And then Down! And Down! And Up! Down! Up! Down!!! Up!! And it's crashing! And the crash is canceled! Up! Down! WAY UP! ALL TIME RECORD LOW! UP UP UP UP UP UP! DEMAND SURGES!!! MARKET FALLING OFF A CLIFF!! DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lol I'm looking for a house in California and it's probably one of the most resilient places. I don't know where you're getting your report or if you're just only reporting certain areas but Cali is not falling off the cliff. It's probably steady rising or mooning
Absolutely! Video coming at noon today regarding home price changes by region in CA and by county. I'll make a county/region specific video for prices and sales next week.
Inventory in my CA market is rising dramatically and they are first priced somewhat high 400k plus or 399k lol to try to make the buyer feel like they're paying 300k instead of 400k anyways they are not selling and they are getting price cuts after 7 days and sitting for atleast 100 days plus but we are only at 2.5 months of supply I expect we will be at 3 or 4 months come summer
Agreed. Here in The peninsula, the market between 2.5-3.5mil is still very hot. Last few houses on the market have only been on the market less than 2 weeks and have gone over asking.
I bet we will see quite a bit of that given the fast rise in rates. Got your offer accepted beginning of Feb when rates were 6% but couldn't lock in until rates shot up to 6.5-6.75%. I could see that happening.
If housing prices were truly included in inflation numbers, wouldn't the numbers skyrocket? Let's say home prices doubled over the last five years, that should have adversely affected inflation numbers. Yet, as home values were going up 20-30 percent year over year, the "inflation rate was modest by comparison. It's all smoke and mirrors.
Per CAR "Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 241,520 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales." That way it's much easier to compare one month to another.
Sure, so the market is down 17% from May, and Inflation is up 3% from May so the real costs are down somewhere around 20% (its not additive, its multiplicative buy ya to lazy to get the real number)... If you could look at it from pre covid (3 years ago) and inflation is over 20%, math that out with Jason's number: Jan 20' median price: 575,000 Jan 23' median price: 751,000 * .8 (to account for inflation) = $600,800 Which means in terms of buying power of dollars (not accounting for rates), we are ALMOST back to pre covid levels. Inflation will continue for 2-3 more years, and I think the median house prices will continue to fall at least through 2023, so we will be way below 2020 in terms of dollar buying power at the end of 2023.
12:45 so regarding price reductions, maybe 8% of it is seasonal and 9% of it is due to demand dropping due to rates. We really need prices to keep dropping in first half of 2023, or else if they are even slightly positive like 1% due to seasonality, media will have a field day and keep pushing that the market is getting hotter... when in actuality it is not even keeping the normal pace of a typical season.
There is just such low inventory that prices may have a slight correction but no drop. its really sad we are in this position because in a regular market prices should never have reached these highs. i feel that prices were already high in 2019 and now they are just unrealistic but low inventory means they stay that way.
I think we have already seen more than a "slight correction" at -17%, currently there is very little to show that that trend is slowing down. if the market just holds with no change (meaning no more falling) till may, they will have to report YoY losses of 17%, that will FREAK the market out... But if the 1%ish declines continue through May they will be forced to report -21% for May... Expect a bloodbath at that time...
@@chrismcaulay7805 I have not seen prices at that low of a decline. they are more like 2.5% from what ive seen nationally. of course individual markets are different. right now there is such low inventory that the only thing stopping this market from shooting up is higher interest rates. Its not like there is a catalyst to fall. all these high interest rates are doing is preventing the market from continuing to appreciate at unstable levels. the fed already allowed the market to go to far up.
Informative, thanks Jason! Although here in SD not much has changed only 3.5-7% decrease. I hope they go to 2019,2020 levels because decreasing from a year ago is still way too high with that interest rate.
@@drmahidhar1876 True. I think we have limited supply in north county maybe in the summer. Although looking at homes over 1 million those have decreased in price anything under 1 million is still harder to get a good deal here in SD. Let’s hope it gets better.
@@sarisah5647 we live in Carlsbad and have been looking at homes, they are selling for over ask in a few days still.. not sure rest of market but North County SD is still doing well!
Thank you for the very thorough lecture. I have friends and relatives in Fremont and Laguna Niguel and their houses have not budged in zillow price. Some areas seem more "resilient" then others I guess. Interestingly, their houses jumped more then 100% since 2012, now both are over $2million
Not seeing much in terms of massive price reductions in Bay Area sadly. A lot of homes I was keeping track of closed at asking/slightly below asking price. :( We have ways to go before we get to a healthy price levels.
I have seen a slight decrease in pricing here in the Murrieta Menifee CA region.. and I've seen the homes that are priced below 600k are selling within days of hitting the MLS... Again FOMO is holding this year from normalizing.. especially I think people from SD and LA moving here for that very reason
eww. there is nothing in Menifee, it has always been a drive through desert. The fact they are mass building tract homes there is nuts. Many people FOMO'ing to buy in the middle of nowhere so they can drive 3+ hours into work in either LA or SD.
@@hodl4life120 Murrietta has no economy to support house prices where they are at, no large companies present.. everyone one there commutes more than half their day to get to work. The AirBnB shills think they can profit off of Pechanga and 'wine country' but there is just no money there for this.
Where I live a garage without a house costs more than $751,000. Markham, Ontario Canada and this is after a 20 percent price drop the average small lot is worth a million with no house or garage on it.
In the East Bay (tri-valley), homes are going really fast in January, and there seems to be an uptick in prices as well. Not sure if this is an anomaly or start of a new trend. Also, almost no new inventory.
I'm in Petaluma. The house across the street sold in a few days. Was listed at 865k and went for 940k. The house was like 1800 sq feet. Makes no sense.
Thank you for sharing this. Maybe seasonality as we get into the spring joke buying season? I plan to make a detailed video about prices on CA for each county today so that video will likely be posted tomorrow or Sunday.
Livermore is still having houses fly off the market but I am noticing it’s because realtors are encouraging back door deals to avoid listing on MLS to give the illusion that there is no inventory. So that the houses listed go fast! In East county of contra costa housing has dropped and slowed and match this analysis much more than the Livermore area!
@@amandarachelle9234 east county contra costa - west county near Oakland/Berkeley lamorinda basically is tight inventory and not that many price drops - moraga has no inventory and Orinda is fairly hot. Lafayette has more inventory but I’m not seeing as much in terms of price drops
@@FinalFlash2110 well, were there 20 houses on the market in that neighborhood just like it, or 2? In my Phoenix neighborhood, there's only ONE house for sale in the entire development.
Very intriguing data and analysis! Hard to know if median sold price decrease is attributable to loss of value on individual properties, or people are just buying cheaper properties. Either way, one can deduce that people can not - or are not - paying as much for real estate as they were last year.
My study shows that both median sales price and median sales price per sf are both following the same path, meaning that the market as a whole has been dropping.
Your analysis is good, but it's often times too focused on regions. Real estate is local, and it would be nice to hear about the cities that are most likely to have significant changes in price. Up or down. Austin. Raleigh. Charlotte. Etc...
Thank you Jason really appreciate you and all you do to help us. In the SF East Bay specifically WC & South to Pleasanton sales are still very fast and up-tick in $$$$. Thank you
Pleasanton is nice - esp for schools. Probably the best place in alameda county overall. Would rather live there than Fremont any day of the year. But another sees just north of Pleasanton - Lamorinda is tight - more so than Walnut Creek (which is also pretty nice )
10 yr treasury, from which most mortgage rates derive, has been sky rocketing back to previous highs recently. Expect increasing mortgage rates in the very near/short term. This moment seems like the dead cat bounce of the housing market with more downtrends going forward for the year.
Good video. Thank you, Jason. Anyway, when it comes to increasing *casual increase of 10-20% MoM* then when it comes to decreasing *barely -0.4% MoM* Most realtors are like "omgggg the biggest housing price drop ever!!!!" 😂😂😂
“They” always say that sales are brisk and demand is high but it is presumably for homes below one million - but it is never quantified in an objective manner
Unfortunately the data captured is a result (or the effect part of the cause and effect paradigm) of an upstream cause and those causes are not recorded in the data. For example, when the % of homes that are being sold for less than the list price has decreased vs. just a few months ago, we don't know the why, as that is not recorded. I have to imagine that one contributing factor is that sellers are more aware of the declining market and aren't over pricing them as they were just 3-6 months ago. And if they really want to move quickly (before prices decline more) they need to more reasonably price their home. Again, unfortunately this information (the reason why) is not captured in the recorded data so we won't know the cause just the effect. Not disagreeing with anything you are saying at all, just identifying the limitation with the recorded data. Thoughts on that? Appreciate your videos and perspective.
@@drmahidhar1876 if by better you mean home prices compared to the literal worst areas in the entire United States sure... but there are so many more issues than just housing in CA.
I've heard that lenders have not been calculating student loans into monthly DTI because they are frozen. Not sure if true. As the majority of home buying millenials resume student loan payments while simultaneously on mortgage loans which are already often 40% DTI, just as the white collar heavily millennial tech industry contracts, gotta wonder what that looks like in 6-12 mo
Normally CA leads the "national market" (really no such thing, but in general). Expect similar things for most markets in a month or 2. Nationally we may see YoY decreases by Feb, but for sure by March. That is the last little thing the pundits have going for them in order to prop up the market, it will be hard to hide the falling market there after.
we are still in the early stages of the housing downturn. the job market is still strong, but inflation has become sticky. the fed will probably have to push the economy into a recession to cause more job losses. that will help give sellers an attitude adjustment.
housing still needs to collapes 20% in CA to bring back common sense to seller expectations with the issues buyers have in this market. greed is still too prevelant
Thanks Jason! This is defenitely good news for someone who wants to move there but why??? Lots of balloons are falling from the skies these days back to the ground, some even go deep into the ocean too! 😂😂 😂😂
jason you are a liar. I'm trying to buy a home and prices are outrageous. I still can't buy a home. Home here cost 900k for 2 bed and 2 bath. The price drop was only 10k. Liar!
Liar?! The video is based on a report and data from CAR. Not my own data or my speculation. ON TOP OF THAT, every housing market is different. The stats I shared in today's video are STATEWIDE.
its pretty clear you dont understand how state wide data works... Some markets remain hot, others are ice cold. Your market may still be hot or warm, but in So Cal things are getting icy.
@@JasonWalter1 ahh, theres the first issue.. You believe everything from CAR? CAR has only one reason to exist. to promote real estate sales.. They are not the united way. They dont give a crap about the buyer , seller .. Only propping up real estate sales.
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What about Bakersfield? Any data for this area?
Hi Jason could you do an analysis for north county southern ca.
Buy now or wait?
prices in CA still waaay overinflated. They need to do what TX just did and pass laws to get the foreign money out
Totally agree ! but here in California , Mexican Drug Cartel are the only thing propping up housing prices , I know of no one who would buy a 3/4 million dollar old house that were fixers 10 times , transfer over and over again by illegal Aliens turned Residence since Bill crap head Clinton ! California is just plain Trashed
yeah I’d rather have local investors screw over residents lol. Look up how some Dallas suburbs are being bought up by investors like blackrock
yeah I’d rather have local investors screw over residents lol. Look up how some Dallas suburbs are being bought up by investors like blackrock
Majority of homes in San Diego are still selling above list
DEBT TO INCOME RATIO's completely out of control in California!!! I am on a single income, no dependents, and have a very good, full time career, with a fully funded pension. I'm living in California and HAPPILY still renting. I'll be completely honest, I don't plan to stay in California when I retire in about 15 years. From a financial stand point, mathematically I can not come to a positive cash flow situation where buying a home in California, makes any financial sense for my particular situation. Am I better off buying a home in a cheaper market, out of state? My calculations tell me to continue renting until retirement, and instead of buying in California, invest my money into an investment property out of state. Renting or short term leasing that retirement/investment home, most likely will generate a positive cash flow on top of paying off my mortgage. Does this make sense to anyone else? In my opinion, unless you are starting very young or plan to stay in California forever, home ownership in California has become a huge liability, not an asset. Basically California is turning into the Roman Empire, the rich taxing it's citizens to death and inflating the price of all basic necessities to control its population. How'd that work out for the Romans? Hmmm, history just repeating itself. JM2C.
Thanks Jason🙂
You bet!
It's DOWN! And then it's UP! And then Down! And Down! And Up! Down! Up! Down!!! Up!! And it's crashing! And the crash is canceled! Up! Down! WAY UP! ALL TIME RECORD LOW! UP UP UP UP UP UP! DEMAND SURGES!!! MARKET FALLING OFF A CLIFF!! DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@bradleyking6390 Why can Jason say "falling off of a cliff" but refuses to call it a crash.. Its a crash plain and simple.
@@bradleyking6390 Amen Brother. Amen
Are foreign buyers (mainly Chinese and Canadians) still a significant force in California?
What website do you guys trust as far as how much a house worth? I’m confused between Redfin and Zillow, it’s completely different numbers
Lol I'm looking for a house in California and it's probably one of the most resilient places. I don't know where you're getting your report or if you're just only reporting certain areas but Cali is not falling off the cliff. It's probably steady rising or mooning
As mentioned in the video, it's based on data from the CA Association of Realtors.
Dude California is no good stay away. I’m getting out asap
Great report as usual. I wonder if you are going to share the same analysis for each county or metro as well?
Absolutely! Video coming at noon today regarding home price changes by region in CA and by county. I'll make a county/region specific video for prices and sales next week.
Really appreciate the detailed analysis you put out!
Thank you Jason!!
My pleasure!
Sacramento stats are very similar right now in terms of volume. Volume has been lower than 2007 though.
Thanks for sharing your insights as always, Ryan.
Inventory in my CA market is rising dramatically and they are first priced somewhat high 400k plus or 399k lol to try to make the buyer feel like they're paying 300k instead of 400k anyways they are not selling and they are getting price cuts after 7 days and sitting for atleast 100 days plus but we are only at 2.5 months of supply I expect we will be at 3 or 4 months come summer
It just cannot crash fast enough or big enough.
Thanks for reporting about California. Can you share area wise, like bay tea, Southern Cali etc
I plan to make a video today about home price trends for each of the counites in CA. Stay tuned...
Great info as always!
Main price drops are in the hood of SF, oakland, etc. Most other areas have no inventory and prices still bloated high.🤷🏻♂️
I think that's a good assessment.
@@david_lawrence_h2703 right?🤷🏻♂️
Agreed. Here in The peninsula, the market between 2.5-3.5mil is still very hot. Last few houses on the market have only been on the market less than 2 weeks and have gone over asking.
@@yao-wencheng6350 exactly.
In the hood where doors get kicked in when your not home.
I’ve been noticing a lot of homes that were pending, back on the market.
I bet we will see quite a bit of that given the fast rise in rates. Got your offer accepted beginning of Feb when rates were 6% but couldn't lock in until rates shot up to 6.5-6.75%. I could see that happening.
So I'm other words, nothing is affordable yet for first time home buyer
Inflation adjusted $ mean bigger decrease?
Nominal $ vs Inflation adjusted $
If housing prices were truly included in inflation numbers, wouldn't the numbers skyrocket? Let's say home prices doubled over the last five years, that should have adversely affected inflation numbers. Yet, as home values were going up 20-30 percent year over year, the "inflation rate was modest by comparison. It's all smoke and mirrors.
Per CAR "Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 241,520 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales." That way it's much easier to compare one month to another.
Sure, so the market is down 17% from May, and Inflation is up 3% from May so the real costs are down somewhere around 20% (its not additive, its multiplicative buy ya to lazy to get the real number)... If you could look at it from pre covid (3 years ago) and inflation is over 20%, math that out with Jason's number:
Jan 20' median price: 575,000
Jan 23' median price: 751,000 * .8 (to account for inflation) = $600,800
Which means in terms of buying power of dollars (not accounting for rates), we are ALMOST back to pre covid levels. Inflation will continue for 2-3 more years, and I think the median house prices will continue to fall at least through 2023, so we will be way below 2020 in terms of dollar buying power at the end of 2023.
12:45 so regarding price reductions, maybe 8% of it is seasonal and 9% of it is due to demand dropping due to rates. We really need prices to keep dropping in first half of 2023, or else if they are even slightly positive like 1% due to seasonality, media will have a field day and keep pushing that the market is getting hotter... when in actuality it is not even keeping the normal pace of a typical season.
Thank you for commenting and for watching the video!
There is just such low inventory that prices may have a slight correction but no drop. its really sad we are in this position because in a regular market prices should never have reached these highs. i feel that prices were already high in 2019 and now they are just unrealistic but low inventory means they stay that way.
exactly. I'm trying to buy a home and all I can afford is 500k for a home but all the homes are 900 to1.3 mill for at least 2 bed and bath
Historically low inventory levels indeed :/
I think we have already seen more than a "slight correction" at -17%, currently there is very little to show that that trend is slowing down.
if the market just holds with no change (meaning no more falling) till may, they will have to report YoY losses of 17%, that will FREAK the market out... But if the 1%ish declines continue through May they will be forced to report -21% for May... Expect a bloodbath at that time...
@@chrismcaulay7805 I have not seen prices at that low of a decline. they are more like 2.5% from what ive seen nationally. of course individual markets are different. right now there is such low inventory that the only thing stopping this market from shooting up is higher interest rates. Its not like there is a catalyst to fall. all these high interest rates are doing is preventing the market from continuing to appreciate at unstable levels. the fed already allowed the market to go to far up.
Perfect! This is really a lot of the information I was hoping for.
Glad it was helpful!
Informative, thanks Jason! Although here in SD not much has changed only 3.5-7% decrease. I hope they go to 2019,2020 levels because decreasing from a year ago is still way too high with that interest rate.
Thank you for watching the video!
San Diego has barely dropped - been looking at north county
@@drmahidhar1876 True. I think we have limited supply in north county maybe in the summer. Although looking at homes over 1 million those have decreased in price anything under 1 million is still harder to get a good deal here in SD. Let’s hope it gets better.
I’m waiting on San Diego north county as well!
Not too much , only foreclosures and Sd treasure tax collector sales are affordable
@@sarisah5647 we live in Carlsbad and have been looking at homes, they are selling for over ask in a few days still.. not sure rest of market but North County SD is still doing well!
Hi Jason!! Are u able to do a video on the Delaware housing market? Thanks
Have you ever encountered a data that shows home owners that possess two or more single homes?
Can you please do an analysis of what might be considered “second home” markets? Such as Tahoe, California beach markets, etc.
I haven't found a good resource for that but thanks for the suggestion.
Thank you Jason. Have a great weekend!!
You too! Thank you!
Thank you for the very thorough lecture. I have friends and relatives in Fremont and Laguna Niguel and their houses have not budged in zillow price. Some areas seem more "resilient" then others I guess. Interestingly, their houses jumped more then 100% since 2012, now both are over $2million
Not seeing much in terms of massive price reductions in Bay Area sadly. A lot of homes I was keeping track of closed at asking/slightly below asking price. :( We have ways to go before we get to a healthy price levels.
I have seen a slight decrease in pricing here in the Murrieta Menifee CA region.. and I've seen the homes that are priced below 600k are selling within days of hitting the MLS... Again FOMO is holding this year from normalizing.. especially I think people from SD and LA moving here for that very reason
Thanks for sharing. I wonder if that will change now that rates are around 6.8%.
I have notice the same thing. Anything "affordable" is selling fast.
What’s funny is I’ve heard people from San Diego have tried to Airbnb homes in Murrieta, good luck to them😂
eww. there is nothing in Menifee, it has always been a drive through desert. The fact they are mass building tract homes there is nuts. Many people FOMO'ing to buy in the middle of nowhere so they can drive 3+ hours into work in either LA or SD.
@@hodl4life120 Murrietta has no economy to support house prices where they are at, no large companies present.. everyone one there commutes more than half their day to get to work. The AirBnB shills think they can profit off of Pechanga and 'wine country' but there is just no money there for this.
Where I live a garage without a house costs more than $751,000. Markham, Ontario Canada and this is after a 20 percent price drop the average small lot is worth a million with no house or garage on it.
Lots and lots of cheaper places to live, so no reason to stay?
In the East Bay (tri-valley), homes are going really fast in January, and there seems to be an uptick in prices as well. Not sure if this is an anomaly or start of a new trend. Also, almost no new inventory.
I'm in Petaluma. The house across the street sold in a few days. Was listed at 865k and went for 940k. The house was like 1800 sq feet. Makes no sense.
Thank you for sharing this. Maybe seasonality as we get into the spring joke buying season? I plan to make a detailed video about prices on CA for each county today so that video will likely be posted tomorrow or Sunday.
Livermore is still having houses fly off the market but I am noticing it’s because realtors are encouraging back door deals to avoid listing on MLS to give the illusion that there is no inventory. So that the houses listed go fast!
In East county of contra costa housing has dropped and slowed and match this analysis much more than the Livermore area!
@@amandarachelle9234 east county contra costa - west county near Oakland/Berkeley lamorinda basically is tight inventory and not that many price drops - moraga has no inventory and Orinda is fairly hot.
Lafayette has more inventory but I’m not seeing as much in terms of price drops
@@FinalFlash2110 well, were there 20 houses on the market in that neighborhood just like it, or 2? In my Phoenix neighborhood, there's only ONE house for sale in the entire development.
Very intriguing data and analysis! Hard to know if median sold price decrease is attributable to loss of value on individual properties, or people are just buying cheaper properties. Either way, one can deduce that people can not - or are not - paying as much for real estate as they were last year.
My study shows that both median sales price and median sales price per sf are both following the same path, meaning that the market as a whole has been dropping.
Definitely more expensive to buy now vs past couple years due to rising rates.
When prices double in 2 years, that’s a bubble. And bubbles pop.
@@anthonylowry9690 or, they just lose a little air.
People do not want mcmansions with big green lawns. They do not have money and time to maintain that.
Since CA moneydrove up prices all over the country...this hopefully will slow everything back to normal
Falling off a cliff= Crash! Why are you afraid of the word Crash when its SO evident???
Your analysis is good, but it's often times too focused on regions. Real estate is local, and it would be nice to hear about the cities that are most likely to have significant changes in price. Up or down. Austin. Raleigh. Charlotte. Etc...
But the Redfin CEO said times are good!
Always a good time to buy lol
Thank you Jason really appreciate you and all you do to help us. In the SF East Bay specifically WC & South to Pleasanton sales are still very fast and up-tick in $$$$. Thank you
Thank you for supporting the channel, Cathy!
Pleasanton is nice - esp for schools. Probably the best place in alameda county overall. Would rather live there than Fremont any day of the year.
But another sees just north of Pleasanton - Lamorinda is tight - more so than Walnut Creek (which is also pretty nice )
That’s because they were moving to Oklahoma.. 😮
Noteworthy that prices dropping but inventory is still on the lower side despite doubling and 33 days is still on lower side
It goes to show you don't need a high amount of supply for the housing market to slow.
Interesting correlation, where Californians move, the crashes follow. (Vegas, Phoenix, Austin)
THOSE AREAS WILL GET 2 HIT TIMES HARDER THAN CALIFORNIA.
10 yr treasury, from which most mortgage rates derive, has been sky rocketing back to previous highs recently. Expect increasing mortgage rates in the very near/short term. This moment seems like the dead cat bounce of the housing market with more downtrends going forward for the year.
From the data, it appears the prices are returning to pre-pandemic levels. I still don’t see a “crash” like many other YTs are predicting.
Appreciate you Jason!
Appreciate you
Thanks for this. I look at the market correction is coming.
You bet - Good morning!
In Arizona they were making a big deal out of the January jump in sales coming off the holidays
In case you missed it, here's a recent AZ update I made th-cam.com/video/GoW53stlsA8/w-d-xo.html
The people I’m referring to are trying to imply it is a good time to buy
@@JasonWalter1 I actually did not miss it - but thanks for posting it again. I rarely miss your episodes and I pretty much always catch up
Good info, thanks Jason!
Any time! Thank you
One million dollar houses who can afford 6.8 % interest rate ?
Good video. Thank you, Jason.
Anyway, when it comes to increasing *casual increase of 10-20% MoM* then when it comes to decreasing *barely -0.4% MoM*
Most realtors are like "omgggg the biggest housing price drop ever!!!!" 😂😂😂
haha Thank you for watching the vid!
it would be interesting to see what happened in 2007-2010
Friday facts with Jason Walter 👍
😊🏡 Good morning!
Love the price point breakdown at 3:20
Not enough people do this - especially in Arizona
Thanks for watching!
“They” always say that sales are brisk and demand is high but it is presumably for homes below one million - but it is never quantified in an objective manner
Party over
All I here is numbers numbers and more numbers
Good! Maybe houses will keep plummeting and all these Californians will stop leaving and coming to all our “fly over” states. 😎
🤣 Let's go!!! I'm from Southern California so I can't talk 🤣 It was so brutal, affording to live there.
@@realestatemindset Hahahha 🍻
Can you imagine how bad things must be in California for people here to want to move into your state?
Good morning, Jeff! Thanks for tuning in.
Unfortunately the data captured is a result (or the effect part of the cause and effect paradigm) of an upstream cause and those causes are not recorded in the data. For example, when the % of homes that are being sold for less than the list price has decreased vs. just a few months ago, we don't know the why, as that is not recorded. I have to imagine that one contributing factor is that sellers are more aware of the declining market and aren't over pricing them as they were just 3-6 months ago. And if they really want to move quickly (before prices decline more) they need to more reasonably price their home. Again, unfortunately this information (the reason why) is not captured in the recorded data so we won't know the cause just the effect. Not disagreeing with anything you are saying at all, just identifying the limitation with the recorded data. Thoughts on that? Appreciate your videos and perspective.
🥱😴
51st- want to move to California sooner than later
Good morning and thanks for tuning in!
There's a reason people are fleeing the state in the hundreds of thousands
@@tann_man its still better than many high cost areas of the northeast. There are more people moving to California from
NJ or NY than vice versa.
@@drmahidhar1876 if by better you mean home prices compared to the literal worst areas in the entire United States sure... but there are so many more issues than just housing in CA.
How about Illinois?
Anyone? I haven't looked into that market.
I've heard that lenders have not been calculating student loans into monthly DTI because they are frozen. Not sure if true. As the majority of home buying millenials resume student loan payments while simultaneously on mortgage loans which are already often 40% DTI, just as the white collar heavily millennial tech industry contracts, gotta wonder what that looks like in 6-12 mo
I believe that's true but can a loan officer chime in?
Normally CA leads the "national market" (really no such thing, but in general). Expect similar things for most markets in a month or 2. Nationally we may see YoY decreases by Feb, but for sure by March. That is the last little thing the pundits have going for them in order to prop up the market, it will be hard to hide the falling market there after.
Another paranoid review! 🙄🙄🙄
How would you interpret the data I shared?
we are still in the early stages of the housing downturn. the job market is still strong, but inflation has become sticky. the fed will probably have to push the economy into a recession to cause more job losses. that will help give sellers an attitude adjustment.
Certain properties will lose value.
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The crash is here
In my opinion, we're seeing a sharp correction but not a crash. At least based on the data we have today.
Jason refuses to call it a crash...just falling off the cliff. Big difference!
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Much appreciated!
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Noooooooo #2
@@realestatemindset LMAO 😂 I told you Travis. It’s much harder on your page brother😂🤣😂
You’re absolutely BONKERS!!!!!@@realestatemindset
Good morning!
I made a full bid offer Sunday with no inspection no contingencies and I got outbid uhhh
housing still needs to collapes 20% in CA to bring back common sense to seller expectations with the issues buyers have in this market. greed is still too prevelant
Thanks Jason!
This is defenitely good news for someone who wants to move there but why???
Lots of balloons are falling from the skies these days back to the ground, some even go deep into the ocean too!
😂😂 😂😂
Thanks for watching the video, Sean!
jason you are a liar. I'm trying to buy a home and prices are outrageous. I still can't buy a home. Home here cost 900k for 2 bed and 2 bath. The price drop was only 10k. Liar!
Huh? Where do you live that you can find cheap homes like that? Would love to find something nice under $1mm.
Liar?! The video is based on a report and data from CAR. Not my own data or my speculation. ON TOP OF THAT, every housing market is different. The stats I shared in today's video are STATEWIDE.
Why are you looking to buy right now? we are still sitting at the peak.
its pretty clear you dont understand how state wide data works... Some markets remain hot, others are ice cold. Your market may still be hot or warm, but in So Cal things are getting icy.
@@JasonWalter1 ahh, theres the first issue.. You believe everything from CAR? CAR has only one reason to exist. to promote real estate sales.. They are not the united way. They dont give a crap about the buyer , seller .. Only propping up real estate sales.
lmao when people are running out of Cali there is obviously waaay more salers than buyers. Get out while you can.
sellers lol
Great info as always!
Thanks again!