I would prefer Ulta Beauty to L’Oréal to be honest in the coming years. It’s beauty sector but cheaper and excellent capital allocation. LVMH is an interesting group over the long run with successful M&A activities with a dream making machine in the back. But fairly priced now. The china uptick could be a big catalyst however.
20 PE is an earning yield of 5%, which is a bit higher than interest rates in the EU right now. So nothing very exciting, I agree. If you target 10% return in the long term, you will simply not get it unless you assume that multiple will stay this high and that they will grow 5% in perpetuity on top of it. And how on earth can you predict that?
it's pretty hard to understand how you can put on the same quadrant LVMH and Nestlè. one is a diversified business with moat, growth and great management. the other is a stagnating business since the last 10 years (like Diageo). Ok Sven
Oddity tech $odd is worth looking at in this sector .Very high roic and they are young and growing faster than competition however they have more geopolitical risk than stocks like LVMH L'Oreal and estee Lauder.
Estee Lauder. Shares now at $66 (1st Nov. 24). CEO pulls annual forecasts on weak/uneven China. This share can drop even more so. The 1 year fall is -36%. Estee share price can drop even more. Very off putting. Puts me off investing in luxury high end fashion etc.
@ women (or at least the women I know) generally do not change skincare products once they find a brand that works. My girlfriend is a dermatologist and it is the only brand she recommends to patients or uses. My understanding is that Estée Lauder’s makeup is overpriced but their skincare products are top tier. I still would not touch the stock at these prices but it is on my watch list.
Great analysis as always. Did you check Samsung lately? Seems quite cheap right now.
Hey Sven EL now at 68 with yield of 3.83% better risk reward set up imo
They cut the dividend so the yield is just 2% now at a stock price of 68.
I was looking at average earnings over cycle
I like the comparacent chart that you put multiple companies on the same chart and compare the risk reword after the great analysis
The voice of reason. Thanks
thanks!
Look at beneteau and manitou.
2 french smallcaps with greats EV/ebitda and great fundamentals : deep value
Hi Sven, what do you think about Heineken? -11.7% this year. Would love to hear your opinion on that. :)
Let me check!
What do you think about the actual gold rally?
as you say, rally, but the general fundamentals of the market are poor!
@@Value-Investing do you like trading 212 for international stocks, im thinking of joining do you know anything about it?
I would prefer Ulta Beauty to L’Oréal to be honest in the coming years. It’s beauty sector but cheaper and excellent capital allocation.
LVMH is an interesting group over the long run with successful M&A activities with a dream making machine in the back. But fairly priced now. The china uptick could be a big catalyst however.
thanks for sharing!
Thank you for the great content. Can the recent Bitcoin bull run and the chinese stocks good moment influence LVMH sales in asia?
I don't know, I don't like to invest in recent things, prefer long-term structural trends!
20 PE is an earning yield of 5%, which is a bit higher than interest rates in the EU right now. So nothing very exciting, I agree. If you target 10% return in the long term, you will simply not get it unless you assume that multiple will stay this high and that they will grow 5% in perpetuity on top of it. And how on earth can you predict that?
Thanks 🙏
You’re welcome 😊
Love your videos. Thanks for sharing your insights :)
Glad you like them!
it's pretty hard to understand how you can put on the same quadrant LVMH and Nestlè. one is a diversified business with moat, growth and great management. the other is a stagnating business since the last 10 years (like Diageo). Ok Sven
thanks for sharing!
Thanks Sven! Good analysis 😁
My pleasure!
Thank you sir!
:-)
Sven pls take a look on MGPI
it is a difficult market!
@@Value-Investing do not doubt your abilities :) U can handle it :)
Finally. I was waiting for these.
Since the video, stock went to 70. Now you have to redue it. Something has changed
I think I said enough in the vid!
HESAY seems like strongest of the brands to me. That said the entire industry seems to dependent on China turnaround that I think will not come.
keep keeping it on Sven, nice video like always
idk... seems same as fashion stock. Please do more stock that is down. Looks like sharks need to hunt in shallow waters now.
:-)
I buy EL around $70
thanks for sharing!
already at 67
@@virsli100 then buy more but is not 370 :) its for investing you will never hit the bottom can be now or can be $1 :)
Oddity tech $odd is worth looking at in this sector .Very high roic and they are young and growing faster than competition however they have more geopolitical risk than stocks like LVMH L'Oreal and estee Lauder.
oddity seems scam
Two of Sven's favorite stocks were Intel and ADM. Both have done poorly in the last year. Intel is a disaster.
You might have missed a few videos on Intel :-)))
Why you are not talking about Hermes? I think Hermès has a fantastic moat, much better than others.. Kering, Burberry, Christian Dior etc
didn't check :-( but I don't think the moats are there anywhere, maybe just temporary
Danke
what if LVMH earnings decline in the next years? this will not be true
anything is possible, especially in fashion!
Estee Lauder. Shares now at $66 (1st Nov. 24).
CEO pulls annual forecasts on weak/uneven China.
This share can drop even more so.
The 1 year fall is -36%. Estee share price can drop even more.
Very off putting. Puts me off investing in luxury high end fashion etc.
EL $88? It's all the way down to $67 now....
Ulta.
th-cam.com/video/bVAVTIjtapI/w-d-xo.html
Hey sven, what you think about crocs stock? is down almost 20% after earnings and i think is a very good play, similar to ULTA.
don't know, haven't followed :-(
Estee Lauder. The decline in their earnings across
2021 2.87B, 2022 2.39B, 2023 1.01B, 2024 390MM.
So shocking, so poor.
Of the three businesses Estée Lauder is still the best with the widest moat but you are still paying almost 22x EV/FCF even after a -20% yesterday.
How does it have a moat? Fashion brands have the worst moats. People always just get bored with the top brands after a while and move on to the next.
Debatable..imho lvmh is a WAY better holding overall..much more diversified, very hard to duplicate, almost an etf on fashion
moat???
@ women (or at least the women I know) generally do not change skincare products once they find a brand that works. My girlfriend is a dermatologist and it is the only brand she recommends to patients or uses. My understanding is that Estée Lauder’s makeup is overpriced but their skincare products are top tier. I still would not touch the stock at these prices but it is on my watch list.
@ important to know stuff like this with woman’s products. Men think they can just look at numbers and know everything.
These Stock are long hold
the 3 stocks lost 5% since the video upload.
thanks for sharing!
SVEN - What about - " Richemont Companerie Financerie" also "Swiss Re" also "Munich Re"
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