Ok so it's not just me, I was wondering what the F was happening and why it had gotten so bad. This happens to Peter a lot when he has that background. I think Peter just has bad internet in that office which is crazy bc he's so smart and his job requires the best internet. You'd think he'd fix that by now.
every time i want to hear something that sounds plausible superficially but turns out to be batshit crazy on careful consideration i tune into Zeihan can i blame the weed?
right?! how else to fuel our superiority complex towards asians?? our huge appetites for chinese collapse videos cant be satiated! MORE!! the white race WILL PREVAIL!
PZ dropped the "is collapsing" meme and taken the safe way out of clickbait heaven with 6 years. that "is collapsing" clickbait title every week for over a year was getting old.
1,5 years later and Ukraine is exporting grain again close to pre-war-levels if I've understood correct. No famine but grain prices are hurting Egypt and maybe others. The Huthies have taken a stab at the global shipping which is also hurting Egypt cutting their revenue from Suez canal by half or so. Solar, wind power and EVs are growing. IEA predicts oil demand will peak in 2029. Peak oil used to be a production issue, now it is predicted to become a demand issue. We live in interesting times for sure.
0:30: 🌍 Globalization and the current economic model are reaching their limits, leading to a potential collapse in various sectors. 7:29: 🌍 The oil market has been split into three pieces, leading to potential conflict and competition in the future. 14:36: 🌍 China's geography and demographic collapse present challenges for its future growth and development. 27:42: 🌍 De-globalization is occurring due to demographic aging and the breakdown of transport systems. 28:43: 🌍 The global supply chain is vulnerable and heavily dependent on China, and the relocation of supply chains will lead to economic growth but also high inflation. 36:04: 😮 China is facing a demographic crisis and is likely to disintegrate as a political and economic entity within a decade or two. 43:18: 🌍 The stability of China's economy relies heavily on external factors such as access to global energy and food imports, but they have no control over these events. 51:02: 🛢 Oil disruptions can have far-reaching consequences and rebuilding Venezuela's oil production system would be a monumental task. 57:39: 🌍 The transition to green energy faces challenges due to the need for large amounts of materials and the lack of production capacity globally. 1:05:42: 😬 The United States and other countries will face challenges in relocating industrial plants from East Asia due to the lack of a 12-step labor market system, while Mexico and Colombia may play a significant role in the future of electronics manufacturing. 1:12:44: 😳 The United States is expected to face significant challenges in the next 20 years due to the skilled labor shortage and a large influx of migrants from advanced countries. Recap by Tammy AI
Hard time taking this guy seriously when he did a interview with Jordan three months into the Ukraine war, and he in empathetically declared Russia is going to win the war. Funny, I thought he would definitely comment on that. Also, I find it odd that he doesn’t know that the United States is not a democracy
You have to remember that academics and REAL knowledge are very different due to the expense, and to justify that expense,the student like the one here will have absolutely no real experience yet help create policy, and is pumped up by the parent, the professors and are VERY exposed to communism and they get so involved in their mind for their own gain its all conflated and false , sociopath comes to mind when they get to the policy think tank,they end up getting the idea they can benefit the world by lending themselves to politics and it's horrible this type of guy makes everyone's life very difficult because of that mindset affecting real people on the ground and they don't mesh. AMERICA BLESS GOD (people that don't have children are stuck with never having sacrificed,so the growing stops mentally, so stay children,but they themselves can't see it)
Did he say that white Americans have a level of racism or was I hearing things? Did he say the Chinese were super racist? I guess anyone who wasn’t han
@@starloszelson4541 I won't lie, we are quite racist in our own unique way, but so is the rest of the world. We are sinful beings. And even if you're not racist, you still other got other dark stuff hiding in your closest of which you want no one to know about. Nobodies is innocent in this (unless you're a child who hasn't reached the age of reason).
For all the people worrying, it’s never as bad as people like zeihan predict. But we will go through a shift. Be kind to your family, friends and neighbours, you might need them one day.
Also, Zeihan as an American analyst really shows his bias. Always doomsday for everyone else but the US will be mostly fine. Let's also remember in his book "The Accidental Superpower" the outlook was way better about China, he already predicted the split of the EU in the decade(which means until 2020 which didn't happen) and stuff like that. I like his analyses and he is sometimes spot on in the shortterm but longterm predictions he is wrong a lot(just like EVERYONE else).
@@hankkingsley9183 isn’t that equally selfish? Nothing in this world that we can label “social”, including your cute dog, loves you without getting something in return. Giving and receiving is the basis of every social relationship. The trick to make new relationships is to be the first one to give…
Its interesting to hear the attitudes like yours. "it's never as bad as people like zeihan predict". That's where people like yourself might be a little ignorant of history, true history. The Roman Empire killed at least 18 million, perhaps as much as 55 million, World War I (1914-18) 9.2 million deaths, Influenza pandemic (probably a result of returning soldiers, 1918-19) 20-40 million deaths, black death/plague (1348-50), 20-25 million deaths, AIDS pandemic (through 2000) 21.8 million deaths, World War II (1937-45), 15.9 million deaths, between the spring of 1959 and the end of 1961 some 30 million Chinese starved to death under Mao. These are just some off the top of my head. The world had a much lower population during these times so the percentages of total population were pretty high. So how many have to die before you consider it to be "as bad"? 🤔
@@nom_chompsky yeah but a fact is that even in war periods, most of the regular people don’t get hurt at all. I have 4 grand parent who have lived ww2.
“ The wealth of a nation isn’t printing money. It’s in your factories, farms, and services provided “. Vijay Boyapati Our wealth isn’t being sent overseas at such an extent.
Another unicorn who sees things clearly like me... How unlikely is that? LOL you are correct but I don't understand why it's so difficult for everyone else to see that attempting to grow your wealth by adding money to the system while not adding any goods or services of value is not unproductive it's very counterproductive which is considerably worse then unproductive. All this fake ass money people think their using to grow their wealth that was made from leveraging money and absolutely nothing of value a product or service that can be responsible for adding the corresponding value it was supposed to represent means the only thing you did was steel value from what already existed and people still think that if they can just find that shortcut to the Easy Button or get that one lick or Hustle that puts a five or six digit log entry in their bank account just can't seem to grasp the fact that they are the problem and the reality is there is no free lunch you don't get something for nothing and eventually someone has to pay the piper it's just simply No Way Around It as all the mental gymnastics in the world can't create money from nothing only central banks can do that and if you try you'll go to jail for sure. Those hard-working people do things and make everything work people who actually do have wealth because they created something of value should all be outraged and demanding a stop be put to this diluting Dynamic that is reproducing money capable of procreation making more of itself but incapable of creating anything of value itself and without producing anything of value that coincides with it it's effectively a vampire feeding off of wealth and stealing it's value because all these worthless paper rectangles weren't created equal and once mixed into the pile you can't distinguish them from anything else pull them back out or treat them differently effectively sort of like a containment you can't go back and straighten it out just have to prevent further infiltration yet nobody seems to really care likely because they are investing in Financial Services themselves or whatever you want to call that group who sits on a big pile of money watching it grow faster than most hard-working people see their wealth grow creating absolutely nothing of value except for maybe a little work for the plastic surgeon as they sit on their ass doing nothing and getting fat because they pay others to do whatever physical activity normal people would do themselves on a day-to-day basis SMH simply because they can and nobody seems to recognize them as having a parasitical nature as the thing that keeps the working class from being able to properly benefit from their that benefit was hijacked by entitled narcissistic parasites play by different set of rules that they made up for just them exclusively but not you. One person in an auditorium watching a ballgame if they stand up they can see better but if everyone stands up everyone can't see better so it's only works for the few who are quite content to effectively cheat everyone else in order to get ahead having to work harder to make to less in order to accommodate somebody not doing their part and yet deriving benefits as if they were just simply shouldn't be tolerated any more and any right-minded six-year-old looking to be fair could recognize that as not right so I'll never understand why everybody just accept it and allow it to continue and especially now because it is starting to have a very negative effect causing more and more able-bodied working-age people to sit on the sidelines and say screw it I'm not busting my ass to barely get by while a parasite leeching off of the majority's hard work to live better then everyone else through no effort of Their Own I don't think people realize that when the people who do produce value decide to sit it out because it's not worth the effort all the sudden the system's excess causes it to collapse under its own weight because there's no longer anything supporting it and there's no scenario where that ends well
It's a strange state of affairs that; as devastating as Covid 19 has been in the West, the move to move manufacturing out of China will enable America and many other nations to take advantage of the tech boom that has already begun. The rest of the world has learned from China and Donald Trump's mismanaging of Covid, and the economic outcome that resulted, why alerting the world and taking action early on is vital. Hopefully the Covid Pandemic has woken the rulers of the world; so the world's countries will be prepared to take action when the next Pandemic occurs, which will most likely be bird flu that will make Covid seem like a walk in the park if mismanaged.
His latest prediction was that US is extremely able to meet the COVID crisis and that by 2021, US will no longer be reliant on China for PPE. Reality in 2021, million COVID dead and US not only even more reliant on China for PPE, more reliant on everything else. By 2023, China, which was a bit manufacturer of medicine in the global market (China essentially supplies her own markets and direct sphere of influence such as Pakistan and Mongolia )will now be sought as the solution for critical chemotherapy shortages in USA.
Yes, he has a lot of knowledge and talks about a lot of relevant points, but he really overstates many issues and is far too engrossed in painting doomsday predictions.
I enjoyed the video but it's regrettable that the audio chopped up around 61-62 minutes mark regarding renewable and nuclear power. I'm particularly interested in that subject.
A little technical issue here: there's a ground loop when Zeihan is speaking. Tricky to figure out what's causing it, but if Harbinger himself or one of this team reads this, you should try to figure it out because it's quite annoying.
Great video. As a Colombian I wish that my country can more fully integarte into the US-Mexico supply chain as a way to grow our economy and turn the page. We have a FTA with both countries in place and a great position.
I really hope Colombia can somehow get competent politicians in place who will move the country towards industrial integration with the US and Mexico. It'd be a win for everybody involved.
Columbians like venezuelans and mexicans have similar values/integrity/behavoir as the U.S. columbians assimilate so well to the crazy north americans. i think even cubans will be part of this trade successfully and will have enough growth to help carribeans and other south americans to assimilate into the new society formed. It's the only way to ensure black market commerce can be minimized.
There's also a gigantic amount of money to be made by transnational corporations, telling you, that shit is okay, Chinese manufacturing is the cool and you may invest money into our business which we run on Chinese manufacturing plants. CCP wants you to believe China is ok too.
@@newtonslogic I can't post a link because you know what TH-cam does with links. Google _business insider stratfor china collapse_ for the article from 22 Jan 2010. We are already 3 years past his 10 year time frame, and the collapse had not yet happened. So he has reset his time limit to 2030. He's taking the same path as the pillow guy. When the prediction doesn't happen, just double down and move the time into the future.
I think people should focus on the US’s upcoming collapse. Homelessness and rising debt, the split society and corrupt, self serving politicians are but a few symptoms of that disease
Norway calling here. Very interesting take on our global situation. As member of a rich, small open economy with natural resources the insight I gather is that me and my country woman and men will survive in the short run, but will be doomed in the long run. We don´t have the military capabilities to fend off powers that need/want our resources. That much I have learned from being a history freak all my life. This will be the century of migration and unrest.
Swedish guy here, don't do what Sweden did, blew the laubour market to pieces. Only goverment subsidesed jobs remain, dependent entierly on raw material export..
Not to worry. A collapsing imperial power that began with Bretton Woods known as the USA is sucker enough to allow you to live under its defense umbrella along with the rest of parasite Europe. Until it, The Host, finally expires. Then, get out your white flags.
Been kinda obsessed with Zeihan for a few weeks now. Interesting perspective. One giant error he does here at around 22:15 is claiming USA has the highest social mobility in the world but it's placed 27th on the Global Social Mobility Index. Northern Europe is by far the best place in the world to be born poor, Western Europe after than. Even some Eastern European countries are above USA, along with some Asian ones.
@@Geokinkladzedo you know what criteria peter used to make that claim? If not do you have a better metric/method to determine global social mobility rather than the global social mobility index?
@@arkparkp4185 "do you know what criteria peter used to make that claim? " No. Do you? "do you have a better metric/method to determine global social mobility rather than the global social mobility index?" Define what you mean by better. Then explain why a better metric would make Peter incorrect.
I've watched so many interviews with Peter covering essentially the same material of his latest work and every single time i manage to come away with some extra bit of information not previously covered. The depth and scope of his knowledge is incredible. Even if not 100% accurate all of the time it's still an invaluable source.
@snsshorts always happy to hear a counter argument if you would first be so kind as to qualify your opinion with a brief summary of your educational and professional experience relevant to this field.
@@sbailey977 No need. American lawmakers graduated from top universities and yet they are steering the United States to the brink of collapse. It's a declining superpower which is expected to disintegrate in the near future just like Europe.
@@ipeteagles Just about all the President's senior people and big tech CEOs have visited China in the past few months. Doesn't that tell you something? Meanwhile Zeihan keeps predicting the collapse of China which many Americans faithfully believe it's gonna happen tomorrow.
Peter’s books are great, densely packed with information while also being human and easy to read, not a dry textbook, his books have taught me so much and I’m so grateful, really good interview too, thank you
@@ahshari Yes he obviously has a pro US bias, but there’s still tons of geopolitical knowledge in his books and I like his writing style, I also try to get other perspectives
I'm alarmed by how many things Zeihan doesn't know what he talking about. In another recent interview he referred to the BRICS as not including South Africa and asserted that South Africa was only contemplating whether to join -- when in fact South Africa joined in 2010 and is the "S" in BRICS! Now in this interview he's claiming the Liaoning had been a casino before being converted back to an aircraft carrier, when in fact the casino story was always a ruse for purchasing the ship from Ukraine and no such conversation to a casino was even started -- when it eventually arrived in China it was immediately refitted as China's first aircraft carrier. He also mistakenly thinks it was previously the Kuznetsov, when in fact it was a Kuznetsov-class called first the Riga and then the Varyag before being bought by China and being renamed the Liaoning. And on top of that, he is wrong that the ship was unreliable and "caught on fire from time to time" -- while it was "launched" and afloat in 1988 the carrier in fact was still UNFINISHED when construction stopped in 1990. So, no, it was not going around catching on fire like Zeihan claims. I have caught other obvious misstatements of fact by Zeihan, and the thing that stuns me is the way he makes these statements with no hesitation or uncertainty -- which makes me wonder how reliable the rest of his "facts" actually are.
@@pinecedar180 indeed, "belief-based" describes it perfectly. What's laughable are his claims the EU and China are going to implode by 2030. Yes, China has peaked and will soon decline due to demographics, much the way Japan peaked in 1989... but Japan is still around, despite their absurd levels of debt which must cause a crisis at some point... but even then, Japan will still be around and a major economy. The same goes for China -- does he really think Tibet or Hong Kong are going to break away, let alone the entire country disintegrate in civil war? Perhaps the regime will fall, but the history of North Korea suggests that a totalitarian regime can survive long past its "sell by" date.
@@BlackhawkPilot no way he's got "staff", he's just a guy like Tom Friedman who makes a living turning his opinions into books. I just realized his reference to the ship "catching fire" in its previous (non-existent) life in Russian service, is him getting it mixed up with the Kuznetsov, which DID catch fire in 2009 while operating in the Russian Navy, and then after it entered drydock in 2018 following its deployment in support of operations in Syria, it caught fire again in 2019. But, I think we can attribute the 2009 fire to it being in service since 1991 without properly-funded maintenance.
He makes up a lot of lies. Trust me anybody who predicts a collapse of a country is a charlatan. He says a lot of things that are just wrong or outright lies. It’s amazing Stratfor paid this guy so much money. I think the fact he is gay is why the establishment prefer him. They love gay China bashers.
American had predicted China collapse many time ago, it seem like China is getting stronger and powerful, and the America is losing the war everywhere, just look back at the American run away from Afghanistan a year ago, it is a laughing stock around the world,
He was generally correct about the Ukraine war happening no later than 2022, however like everybody else he was wrong about Ukraine collapsing quickly, which obviously didn't happened. Ukraine is still fighting but the outcome remains uncertain.
He has been predicting the imminent collapse of China any-minute-now for who knows how many years. If he keeps going, eventually, one day he would be right. Nothing lasts forever. But considering the fact that he's not going to live forever, and how long China has been around, I wouldn't hold my breath. Look at what Sri Lanka went through. And they have not ceased to exist. It's not just China. I wouldn't believe anybody predicting any country collapsing completely.
I’ve become a big fan of Zeihan in the last year, and I follow more than a few important geostrategists and professors. I’m really glad he’s getting the attention he deserves.
@@sneakysky6398yes Michael Hudson is an academic who has experience and knows what he's talking about. Zeihan reminds me of Sam Harris in some way. Once in a while one of these guys becomes popular among Americans cause they are good for US ego. Sam Harris was the guy telling US that the US wars , invasions, crimes etc could be misguided but the intentions were good , US is the good guy while Zeihan is telling Americans, you are expeptional and better than the rest of the world, you will fare better than everyone else, China that wannabe super power will end soon. This goes against the trend that clearly shows a decline of US military and economic power and the rise, yet again, of Asia. Zeihan seems to avoid the de- dollarization
@@davidfirmino3829 I argee Zeihan goes makes the US position seem better than it actually is relative to the rest of the world. But he has reminded me to go back to fundamentals, which that most nations don’t have all the resources they need and must trade for them. Weather they use technology to make products like japan or South Korea or export raw materials like Africa. Without trade both won’t have what they need. I think China has what I call a resource bottleneck. It has the hardworking labour and some tech. But it’s main drawback is lack of farmland and raw materials.
@@davidfirmino3829 If China can export some of its population and reduce the population in China it can become like Japan in terms of wealth once it catches up technologically but as long as there are 1.4+ billion people I don’t think the earth can support that people living American way in terms of consumption. This is why I don’t see India as the future superpower. I look at India and see China but behind India will have the same natural resources bottleneck but worse. I think if Africa can get its act together it could become quite wealthy, it doesn’t have the resource bottleneck of India and China. India can fit into Africa 12 times!!! Africa is the opposite of china a lot of resources but not so much technology. But that is a better predicament as you can develop tech. You can’t “develop” or “learn” how to produce more iron ore you have it or you don’t.
One of the most fascinating and in depth discussions I've ever heard on the significant and relevant topic of global economy. Great job and I can't wait to hear more of your work.
Peter Zeihan is one of the worst people to listen to. He is so completely and ridiculously wrong but manage to sound and appear intelligent. But if you listen to a few other geopolitics analysis, you will quickly realize he's full of shit.
i submit the global economy is in dire circumstances due to the CBD ; central bank dynasty ; owners of all central banks and perps of all govt debt ===> bankruptcy of all nation states.. resulting in mass depop
An awesome interview and educational piece regarding international trade, future prospects for the global economy, and important international politics and insights for the future.
The first Chinese carrier was never a casino. They bought it from the Ukraine in a 1/3 finished state in the aftermath of USSR collapse with the official reason it would be used as a floating casino. They towed the rusty hull to China and refurbished it for the Navy. So it was never a casino.
When it’s a crisis of consumption and not production due to automation I feel like we all know the answer. It’s a foolish society who sees the ability to produce more than they can consume ,without human labour no less, as a a problem. This is just a problem for the rich. We could always use our production to ensure all needs of a shrinking population are met, but rich people wouldn’t be able to exploit the poor that way.
(1) Was said the same about the Printing Press, Cotton Gin, Railroad, Electric Light, Typewriter, Farm Traitor, etc. Yes, job lost, but new profession came into play and human move on. (2) Without the continues producing, we would not have had the iphone, computers, EV, airplanes today. As human, we make things not knowing will there be a consumption of what I make. (3) Rich exploit the Poor is like America only have two classes and those whom are rich, never taste being poor nor a poor man cannot become rich by his labor and hard work. (4) To put a good note and smile on your face, you can watch Prince Harry getting a taste of being poor, soon, if that make you happy.
14:34 "Kuzenov" No, Peter, they did not call it Kuzenov. They called it Kuznetsov, and in fact still do. Lioaning was sold "as a casino" but that was just a cover story. It was commissioned a few years ago and is no longer just a training carrier which it was for the first year or two. Unlike Kuznetzov, Liaoning and Shandong don't use Mazut, don't need a tug. A fourth ship in this class serves in India but is due to be retired in the next few years or so. Air complement on all is circa 36 a/c, either fixed wing OR rotary (some wrongly say AND, which is wrong) What I am saying is: Peter knows not of what he speaks. There was not horrible piracy pre-WW2 or pre-WW1. Piracy was suppressed by around 1860 at worst, and will not in fact recur, which means global trade will continue even if the USN withdrew entirely from the Eastern hemisphere *which it will never do* I just wonder how long till other analysts notice the main premises of his work are wrong and in consequence his policy prescriptions and other predictions are also wrong? They will.
The problem is people like Zeihan just gives enough 'facts' that they layman thinks it to be truth when it is not. Like you said the casino thing is a good example. He made it sound like the USSR built it, but it was terrible, then it became a casino and China stupidly bought it. People are dumb and when they hear things like these they eat it up and becomes an echo chamber.
With AI and robotization the problem is exactly the opposite. How to find work? Many societies even have the basic guaranteed income programs to feed the unemployed or unemployable (welfare etc.). So fewer people in the long run is better, for the environment, the future, and the sustainability.
You hit the nail on the head regarding the green energy thing and that's what a lot of people pushing it fail to realize...That the sheer amount of materials needed vastly outstrips what we make per year, even if we dropped the manufacturing of everything else (and i mean EVERYTHING) and pooled all those materials into making the world run on green energy it would barely make a dent in what we need to actually make the world run on green energy...Another thing they forget is that not every place on the planet is actually suitable for green energy storage, a good example is Australia, we tried a battery bank/green energy farm for a single town and guess what happened to the battery bank? It caught fire because the AC units couldn't keep up with both the amount of heat the battery banks put out while storing energy and the heat from the weather (basically the AC units shat themselves and burnt out trying to keep up)...Plus that battery bank/green energy farm was a colossal failure due to the fact when they did a tally of the towns power usage after they concluded the "test" the battery bank/green energy farm accounted for...0.2% of the total power usage for the town with the rest coming from coal/oil/gas...
@@zollen123 Something that the US, China and UK/EU use called a nuclear power plant but i don't see that happening any time soon even though we 1. have so much space to put one where it wouldn't harm anyone 2. have massive aquifers inland that they can draw from for water to cool the reactors 3. we seem to be more than happy to store nuclear waste from OTHER countries underground in disused mines 4. we have a breeder facility to make our own nuclear fuel rods but we ship them to other countries only apart from a very tiny amount because 5. we DO have a nuclear reactor but it's use is purely scientific and not for power generation. The main reason is the Greens party, they still to this day think a nuclear power plant will go off like a nuke, explode like Chernobyl or Fukishima and some think the area around a plant if we had one would become super irradiated the moment we power the thing on...We've been trying for DECADES to get one built here to lessen the need for coal/oil/gas power but the Greens have always put a stop to that even though out of coal/oil/gas/nuclear, nuclear power is the least polluting out of those four major power types for large scale power generation and the most energy and fuel efficient in the fuel to power ratio.
The US population is in decline... In 2019-20-a year partially affected by the pandemic-the national growth rate dropped to 0.35%. Then, during the first full pandemic year of 2020-21, annual growth fell to a historic low of 0.16%-a result of the substantial rise in deaths coupled with declines in births and immigration.
There was a CRITICAL flaw in Peter's reasoning at one point. "... high inflationary yes, but people forget about the high growth part...". This flaw in reasoning is almost universally found among economists and economic commentators as well as in governments. First of all, growth does NOT impact the lower income part of the population positively in a way that OUTWEIGHS the negative impact of increased inflation. I am consistently stunned by how these people cannot seem to fathom this. High growth is mainly positive for (a) high wealth individuals, (b) those owning the means of production (sad to be using Marx, but it is true nonetheless), (c) anyone directly involved in the supply chain that is affected by the growth economy and (d) governmental coffers. There is a short term benefit to people that previously had no income that now get a job, but CRUCIALLY this is a SHORT TERM benefit. See, the part you guys seem to gloss over (or are completely oblivious to) is that indefinite growth is IMPOSSIBLE without indefinite inflation and as soon as the growth slows down which it absolutely will, since again, it is not possible to maintain absolute growth at any sort of rate over the long term, the inflationary impact that built up during the high growth phase obliterates any sort of wealth or potential wealth among the populace in general. These people always seem to talk about macro economic scenarios that can be within the control of entities like "Apple" (you could pick from almost any company on the stock market). Inflation has for all intents and purposes no impact on a company like Apple, for extremely obvious reasons, hence, coupled with the fact that their entire reason for existing is to increase shareholder value, growth is all that matters. This is simply NOT TRUE for the average person. The thinking that a high economic growth environment is somehow de facto good for a country at large is false. I would like to point out that the average person has gotten LESS wealthy over the last 40 years DESPITE the economy having grown hugely over that same period. Purchasing power has decreased whilst the comparative cost of "things" have increased above any sort of increase in the ability to own said things. Moreover, "trickle down economics" does NOT work in current day even if it might or might not have 50 years ago. Therefore, any sort of boom in growth among the upper echelons in the economy does not have any sort of comparatively equivalent boom in wealth lower down the line. I mean, do I really have to spell it out? Here is an example: Let's say Apple comes out with record profits this year. Do they (a) distribute said profits as wage increases among their employees, (b) dole out dividends to shareholders, (c) increase potential future growth with further investment in the company or (d) "bank" profits as cash in an offshore bank account? I am willing to bet my life that (a) is not the answer. Employees see VERY little benefit of company wealth increasing nearly always, especially if this is a public company. Lastly, in the current model there is no solution to this because of the very nature of the system. Purchasing power will continue to decrease, no matter what, until such a time that we sit with a very wealthy small percentage and the rest of the population just being in abject poverty. Yet, as soon as someone shouts "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" that person is disregarded for being some sort of commie lunatic. Be better and start thinking more of your fellow humans than trash like "Apple".
I don’t get that how you missed the Indian demography as a potential hi-skill and low skill labor supply for manufacturing and global supply chain. Or am I missing something?
well, everyone else just predicted China collapse, no one predicted half billion people starvation. This guy is just at a new level of ignorance and stupidity
Wow, he doesn't understand the European Union. Didn't expect that. If Germany was broke back when Greece went bankrupt, Greece would have been kicked out of the Eurozone and would have stayed in the EU. The European Union and the Eurozone are not the same thing. The Union has a wide array of different nations at different parts of their own development, some of which participate in things like the Eurozone and others who don't. It is about much more than simple US-mindset economics. Shocked he doesn't know this.
I disagree on the forecast about the European Union, it's a common mistake in the Anglosphere to consider it only an economical union and that with the economical benefit shrinking that it would collapse. The union is first a POLITICAL choice by those countries to keep being relevant on the world stage and have any say. The dissolution of the union would leave the single countries alone, less influent and therefore over time with even more economical disadvantages like being strongarmed into uneven agreements with entities like the US.
That's already happening. The metropolitan area already trying to function independently. I spoke to an international geopolitical executive who was trapped in China up until a few months ago, he said, is collapsing already, and they are trying to secure the minimum live saving trading. China is collapsing already.
But they are willing to do everything to have their moment in the sun as the dictating great power. Even if it's whatever Xi's wishes writ large. And the diplomatic breakthroughs that they've made and the leverage they have in the present are having real world effects and making an argument to a lot of the world that U.S. democracy doesn't work and doesn't protect national interest--and that the U.S. (and Europe/Western Europe) are in irreversible decline. [This is something that gets proven from the ultimate failures to advance on diplomatic goals from maybe the 1990s to now.]
BlueJ, I'm a month in your future. No sign of this collapse that you claim ALREADY started. Maybe, every couple of months, somebody can check in and mention if they have seen it yet.
@@sparkeyjones6261 I think the West will collapse before China. The fact that China is the only surviving civilization (5000 years) to date tells you something.
The CCP is not the oldest surviving political system, the borders of "China" have changed dramatically since people began living in the region. China has been a series of empires which has experienced many collapses and invasions/dissolutions throughout its history. The CCP is the current empire which took over from the previous government which is currently in Taiwan, and this disruption event occurred less than 100 years ago. It's collapsing yet again, it's not stable at all. What was the purpose of the Great Wall again?
I hate to spoil this apparent secret but he works for the government. He's what they call a "soft discloser". That's a general term that tests the waters for views within the government. They are pushed based on the mainstream traction they gain and will end up getting attention commensurately. There are 3 main views relating to China in the government; that they'll collapse in 2030, 2035 and 2040. While there are other viewpoints, those are the main three. He expands upon that and explains it will be 2030 bc of the dictator trap causing a collapse before the demographics alone cause imminent failure. I did a lot of research on this in undergrad around 2003-2005. I predicted 2040 at that point and I basically still think that; It'll likely be after 2035 but before 2040. It depends on how long Xi lives. Obviously I didn't know about him at that time, but their desire to have an authoritarian seemed obvious to anyone who saw Failman Mao. I think Xi's moving out of office will cause a failure for whoever follows him. Could be 2028, could be 2038.
What I find most lacking in his analysis is how Capitalism operates and interacts with technology to keep on surviving. These are not the first resource crisis in the history of this economic system, in fact it is not the most serious one. There is much wiggle room for the system do de-escalate on energy usage. And technology can steer people into a world of less consumption in terms of resources, just by transforming life-styles and working regimes. Also, there is much ignorance on how much the US is dependent on the rest of the world. If today Americans are less dependent on the rest of the world in terms of GDP, it is because laborer's compensation is so much higher than in the other parts of the world the US get their goods from. If wages grow for the exporter countries in general, all imports will rise accordingly and make the United States more dependent. It is also highly inaccurate to say a supply chain can close in China and open in Mexico in the span of a couple of decades. First of all, in the meantime the Chinese are developing cutting edge technologies, so it becomes less and less dependent on the costly labor force of Europe and US to get capital inputs and financing. Second of all, China can very well secure a safe position with its neighbors to secure a safe stream of food and energy (Russia's east lands are largely up for agricultural development and energy infrastructure), as well as other important minerals (mostly from Central Asia). The Chinese geopolitical view, I think, is of a multi-polar world, where the rich get poorer and the poor get richer, so Latin America, for example, can pretty much unite as a continent with shared identity (Bolivarianism), form and alliance with East Asia and confront the US imperialism. In fact, we see this happening at the very moment. The US is no longer the main foreign investor in Brazil. China is. And as the central economies have to compete with the emerging regional powers, their capacity for domination diminishes, leaving room for domestic distress and power restructuring in the poorer countries. I don't see how a country that benefited from global imperialism, be it European or its own, can maintain a strong position going forward while the world collapses around it.
Basically, you're saying that everyone is going to gang up against America. That makes sense. Considering that we enjoyed great prosperity these past 70 years and everyone else has been struggling, I can see how a large target could be painted onto our backs -- an incredibly large target.
Geothermal is a huge dark horse in the Green Energy space that everyone is ignoring, but at the rate it is advancing, it will easily kill most of the need for the material input and energy storage currently projected while simultaneously being the final nail in the coffin for fossil fuels just about everywhere in the world.
Not sure why Peter is convinced aircraft carriers can't protect water ways as well as destroyers. The planes leave the deck, giving aircraft carriers far better reach/range than a fleet of destroyers.
What an interesting episode, guest, and topic. The course of events laid out by Peter Zaihan is a bit like hearing about a future train wreck where a ton of countries are all individual cars (?) with their own mechanical failures. What an unforunate end to such a relatively prosperous and fortunate time if he is right. 2030-40 seems like a very quick time scale to my eye but at least I know what warning signs to look for with some of these issues. Good luck to everyone regardless.
I don´t think he is right ...world change...but also adapt. No trend can be interpolated longer than a few years. Reality is too complex. Just look at all the people predicting some development in the past. They get very few things right.
@@asnark7115 I'm more interested in seeing you explain how you think. People flee from totalitarian regimes all the time - look at North Korea or Cuba. When things get bad enough and people have nothing left to lose they will go elsewhere.
If you're referring to global warming, it's a common misconception created by fear mongering mainstream media that droughts will become more common. In actuality, on the whole the world will become wetter. How this manifests at the local level is unpredictable and some places may indeed have more frequent or more severe droughts, but in large part there will be more surface water, more evaporation, and more precipitation around the world.
He covers it in his books and some of his lectures. He posits that some areas of the world will be hit with severe drought, while others will benefit (for at least a while) from climate change from increased rainfall. His position on climate change is that 1) we can't currently predict exactly what will happen on a region by region basis, it's just too complex, 2) some places, like the American Midwest, could become wetter improving crop yields, while the Southwest most likely will become dryer and cause a major population migration.
If you believe the USA Naval Forces is there to safe guard International Commoners, you have much to see worldwide and read world history. They are not out there for mankind.
I’m surprised that he said that Vietnam is the Southeast Asia country that will be the biggest trade partner in the region and no Indonesia. Indonesia is projected to be the 4th economy of the world by 2045 and with strong demographics to boot.
We are ACTIVELY turbo charging Vietnam industrial base similar to how we did China….Indonesia is growing at it’s OWN pace where Vietnam is growing at the pace the US needs and will be scaled up to accommodate as we scale down in China….
@@pierregibson6699 let’s hope so. The majority of south east Asia seems to be more comfortable under the influence of the US rather than China. A new axis between China, Russia e Iran is forming again since the recent sanctions. My biggest doubt is India: it’s still unclear which side they will choose (if they choose one at all).
YEAR 2045 ❓️❓️❓️ WHAT A WILD PREDICTION ❗️❗️❗️❗️ IF WE HAD SUCH ACCURATE SOOTHSAYER....WHY YOU DID NOT ADVICE YOUR OWN PRESIDENT BIDEN TO STOP HIS STUPIDITY IMPLEMENTING VERY DANGEROUS SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND ON OTHER NATIONS IN THE WORLD .....DONT FORGET THOSE SANCTIONS WERE FOR DECADES IN THE MOST CRUELLEST WAYS ❓️❓️❓️❓️❓️ THESE ARE AMERICA IMPERIALISM ....IN ITS MOST MERCILESS AND CRUELEST WAYS DOMINATING THE WORLD.....FOR DECADES ❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️ WHAT BIDEN HAD DONE BY HELPING UKRAINE WAS A HUGE NO❗️❗️ NO ❗️❗️❗️ WHY YOU COULD NOT HELP BIDEN TO STOP PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA ......MIGHT SAVE AMERICA LOSING HER DOMINANT WORLD CURRENCY ❗️❗️❗️❗️ IT IS ALWAYS SOME ECONOMIST OR WAR ANALYST OR SENIOR BOOK WRITERS OR EVEN JOURNALISTS KNEW THE ANSWER TO AMERICA ECONOMIC DISASTERS COMING......WHY SPEAK UP NOW WHEN IT IS TOO LATE ❗️❗️❗️❓️❓️❓️
@@VincitOmniaVeritas7 the majority of SEAsia is comfortable trading with both China and the US. Nobody wants this war that the US seems to be looking for. ASEAN is today China's principal trade partner, larger than the China-US and China-EU trade.
China is already the worlds super power. They have the largest military in the world. They own pretty much the worlds raw mining areas. Did I mention BRICS? China is not dumb.
Could there be a short version of this: highlights. These days there's SO MUCH CONTENT! Over an hour is a large time commitment. I get that more view hours is good for monetisation.
@@phantomcreamer Africa has an absolutely awful geography, despite being between the Americas, Middle East and Asia, mostly due to the Sahara that divides it into 2, but has very few water, poor soil and many political divisions with poor infrastructure and low skilled populations. Africa is basically screwed.
Nigeria holds potential, but, but, but. They have a young, large population, arable land, oil. But, the y have consistently failed to develop agriculture, broaden the reach of education, and eliminate corruption to attract foreign trade and investment. It is sad and frustrating to observe. If, if, if...
Living in China, it doesn’t feel like the population collapse is gonna be the big problem at all. The rapid pace of technology is scarier than anything else. China is automating at a rate way faster than any western nation. The EV explosion is just a byproduct of the massive technological advancement the nation is making. Drones are already poised to take over the massive delivery industry. Self driving vehicles are so close. Flying cars are releasing next year. AI is now in Chinese cars and can chat with kids and answer any homework questions. They are rapidly developing both civilian and military grade robots. What is left for humans to do except have the billion of us left to fight for developing robots? This nation will be fully sustainable by machines before any other country at this rate.
1. When he's talking about the iPhone components he doesn't mention coltan or cobalt. Now cobalt for example, is the single most centralized metal when it comes to extraction, 70% of the world's supply comes fron DR Congo. Pretty much the same story for coltan. But I guess he 'forgot' to mention that, which is really weird in light of the December 13, 2022 US-DRC-Zambia Memorandum of Understanding. (This is where you look at the date of this upload and see the memorandum publication was about a month and a half before the upload, meaning he certainly was aware of it) Or maybe he didn't want to talk about that because of his pipe dream of a self sufficient American continent supply chain system. 2. He does a lot of NAFTA throwing around, weird he never mentions the SCO. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation now includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. You might think these are neglectable nations outside of Russia, China and India, but just look at a map what block they form. Add to that they have as observing and dialogue members countries as Afghanisyan, Belarus, Iran, Mongolia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Egypt, Turkey, Nepal, Qatar Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka. Basically, this guy has a USA centrist view and his analysis reflects that, mainly by projecting the rest of the world as an empty cooperative organisation space.
It's not just that. Nowadays in order to be competitive on world markets, a country needs a 500 million people consumption base and China has a 500 million young people, even with a population decline, china will still have 600 700 million people in 50 years. It's not a production crisis as well, because thanx to automation what it matters today is not cheap labor but cheap energy, access to cheap energy resources and Russia can guarantee that and unlike this dude says, Russia has all the necessary technologies to gain access to the arctic deposits. This dude is delusional like all the American elites. He keeps talking about the mississipi when many scientists have confirmed the lack of water the river is starting to experience for the next 30 years.
Thank you for this video. Mr. Zeihan is quite an interesting speaker. A big part of me hopes he is seriously wrong but I suspect he is not. Subscribed.
Geopolitical analyst are not more right than stock analyst. He didn't see the deglobalization movement at all. He predicted global conflict would be highly unlikely going forward(Russland says hi). (both from his book The Accidental Superpower) The way he talks you always feel like he is super certain about things but analyst just update their predictions. Sometimes they are right but often wrong. He is still always very informative.
Robots don't comsume? Don't they consume energy? And technician's time? I dunno, he has interestig ideas, but he tends to cut corners. I also wonder if ' global trade' didn't start well before the Industrial Revolution. The Hanseatic League? The VOC? I dunno. And many other yhings I have my doubts. But still very interesting points. I love his realisation of the importance of the Mississippi basin for example. I really enjoyed this 'interview'
He tends to make some things up to support the conclusions he must be getting paid to publicize, just like he did when he was at StratFor. Maybe he left StratFor because he felt "restricted"?
An interesting point of view presented. One issue with this podcast is that there is no counter views and the host does not really challenge the guest. So the overall impression is that it is biased. For example there was very little discussion on the highly polarized political landscape in the US and its future impact if any.
Politic is only 1/3 of the equation. Geography and demography are the other 2/3s. This guy presumes that the latter two are significantly more relevant than first. So he doesn’t do deep dives into politics. He even goes so far as to say “that’s a political question”, and dances around it, when he is pushed on the issue.
@@joemamma137 Some boomers remember. Oh-- PZ does indeed do deep dive on factions and coalitions in US politics, just not in every pitch. Here is one: th-cam.com/video/3_GrDbcC0N4/w-d-xo.html
If his predictions about China and Russia come true, which he lays out damning evidence for, the world is going to be a VERY interesting place, especially for us Americans 👍🇺🇸
@@StevenSanchez_95 Yeah, assuming politicians dont absolutely screw everything up. But still, until that's done, inflation is gonna be hell and life will be VERY hard. But things get better afterwards. But it's still far better than the rest of the world. The rest of the world is absolutely screwed.
The i.q. of Venezuela does not warrant trying to rebuild it. Just rebuild the oil fields, take the oil and give the Venezuelans an allowance small enough that they won't destroy themselves with it.
Actually it seems to be more like, "The Kids, with all their stereotype faults, will find a way. If we manage the right 'big picture' frame for the problem"
@@watchthe1369 There is a meme about how Peter is going to describe kids in Industrial Society... they go from free farm labour to expensive ... Some of the usual are furniture and habits though I think I have heard pets and hobbies before
@@watchthe1369 ya so the going joke though out all his talks and books are that kids keeping switching from, talking peaces, furniture, tripping hazards, habits, bobbies, etc so I what love about every interview is finding out what kids are this time
USN/Marine shipbuilding and maintenance is trapped in a death spiral as well. Lots of problems with members of the labor pool being problem cases, but that side of the maritime industry being so staff challenged that they float around like bad pennies. US ship ready rates and times in dock have have been continually negatively impacted for a decade plus now
I think there are two demographic crisis. One is understood that is about age. Another is about education and health. If you look current young people in West they often dont have correct skills and education. Also they are far more worst health and physical shape than their parents. Their ability to participate to work life is more limited because those two. So age based demographics are only part of the story. Economist just dont often look the socio-economic side of demographics.
I’m an American living in Shanghai. My life wasn’t terrible in USA. I could’ve worked on it a bit more but overlooking the government here (which puts me on the verge of leaving every month or two) there are some benefits to living here. My savings potential is great. I’m able to save 60-75% of my salary. Besides rent (which I receive nearly 2k housing allowance for) I don’t spend too much money and more importantly I work at an international school which allows my child to attend a very high quality education for almost free. That’s not too bad. Still I’m eyeing my move back to the states.
@@judyy2006 of course I will do that but in my own time. I don’t need some random commenter (probably some Chinese troll) on TH-cam to decide my life 🤟
@@jameshightower8875 Sir, TH-cam is a freedom platform, if you don't want others to comment, please leave silence, if you don't like China, you can leave there, no one cares. By the way, I am Australian, I like Chinese. I don't want to say China is not suitable for me when I enjoy their convenience there..
@@judyy2006 haha you are speaking Chinese propaganda and ideas claiming to be Australian. I’ve met dozens and dozens of aussies. You’re Australian by passport not culture 💯
@@jameshightower8875 👆 you absolutely right 💯 Using Chinese and China synonymously is a huge red flag for a propagandist. Nobody in their right mind thinks China is convenient after covid in 2021. You'd need to be confusing the word convient with inconvenient.
Why is this video cutting out as if I was in a storm and there's no signal temporarily WTD
Ok so it's not just me, I was wondering what the F was happening and why it had gotten so bad. This happens to Peter a lot when he has that background. I think Peter just has bad internet in that office which is crazy bc he's so smart and his job requires the best internet. You'd think he'd fix that by now.
@dustin628 good God I almost smashed my phone into the ground at work trying to find out what it was...
Every time I feel a little bit depressed I listen to Peter and I feel better, because it can always be worse
😐The word you are looking for is “always”, not “ever” and worse, not worst
every time i want to hear something that sounds plausible superficially but turns out to be batshit crazy on careful consideration i tune into Zeihan can i blame the weed?
right?! how else to fuel our superiority complex towards asians?? our huge appetites for chinese collapse videos cant be satiated! MORE!! the white race WILL PREVAIL!
Same😂
@@QuizmasterLaw Blame the weed on your sentence structure and punctuation or Peter's forecasts?
It’d been interesting to see this video again in 5 years…..
No collapse….
PZ dropped the "is collapsing" meme and taken the safe way out of clickbait heaven with 6 years.
that "is collapsing" clickbait title every week for over a year was getting old.
NHe is becoming a bigger clown than Mr Chang
1,5 years later and Ukraine is exporting grain again close to pre-war-levels if I've understood correct. No famine but grain prices are hurting Egypt and maybe others.
The Huthies have taken a stab at the global shipping which is also hurting Egypt cutting their revenue from Suez canal by half or so.
Solar, wind power and EVs are growing. IEA predicts oil demand will peak in 2029. Peak oil used to be a production issue, now it is predicted to become a demand issue. We live in interesting times for sure.
China will probably not collapse..but it will get back to reality and its economy will shrink slowly.
0:30: 🌍 Globalization and the current economic model are reaching their limits, leading to a potential collapse in various sectors.
7:29: 🌍 The oil market has been split into three pieces, leading to potential conflict and competition in the future.
14:36: 🌍 China's geography and demographic collapse present challenges for its future growth and development.
27:42: 🌍 De-globalization is occurring due to demographic aging and the breakdown of transport systems.
28:43: 🌍 The global supply chain is vulnerable and heavily dependent on China, and the relocation of supply chains will lead to economic growth but also high inflation.
36:04: 😮 China is facing a demographic crisis and is likely to disintegrate as a political and economic entity within a decade or two.
43:18: 🌍 The stability of China's economy relies heavily on external factors such as access to global energy and food imports, but they have no control over these events.
51:02: 🛢 Oil disruptions can have far-reaching consequences and rebuilding Venezuela's oil production system would be a monumental task.
57:39: 🌍 The transition to green energy faces challenges due to the need for large amounts of materials and the lack of production capacity globally.
1:05:42: 😬 The United States and other countries will face challenges in relocating industrial plants from East Asia due to the lack of a 12-step labor market system, while Mexico and Colombia may play a significant role in the future of electronics manufacturing.
1:12:44: 😳 The United States is expected to face significant challenges in the next 20 years due to the skilled labor shortage and a large influx of migrants from advanced countries.
Recap by Tammy AI
Hard time taking this guy seriously when he did a interview with Jordan three months into the Ukraine war, and he in empathetically declared Russia is going to win the war. Funny, I thought he would definitely comment on that.
Also, I find it odd that he doesn’t know that the United States is not a democracy
You have to remember that academics and REAL knowledge are very different due to the expense, and to justify that expense,the student like the one here will have absolutely no real experience yet help create policy, and is pumped up by the parent, the professors and are VERY exposed to communism and they get so involved in their mind for their own gain its all conflated and false , sociopath comes to mind when they get to the policy think tank,they end up getting the idea they can benefit the world by lending themselves to politics and it's horrible this type of guy makes everyone's life very difficult because of that mindset affecting real people on the ground and they don't mesh. AMERICA BLESS GOD (people that don't have children are stuck with never having sacrificed,so the growing stops mentally, so stay children,but they themselves can't see it)
Did he say that white Americans have a level of racism or was I hearing things? Did he say the Chinese were super racist? I guess anyone who wasn’t han
@@starloszelson4541 I won't lie, we are quite racist in our own unique way, but so is the rest of the world. We are sinful beings. And even if you're not racist, you still other got other dark stuff hiding in your closest of which you want no one to know about.
Nobodies is innocent in this (unless you're a child who hasn't reached the age of reason).
@@starloszelson4541but was manchu officer public told mongolia are talking animals which cause the rebellion.
Funny, there are no audio issues on Spotify with this particular broadcast.
Thanks, I was just checking comments for info about it
Thanks. Heading there now.
It goes really wonkey at thw 1 hour mark...
Yeah it gets chopped up bad at an hour for some reason hahaha 😅 weird
Xcellent. Thanks‼️
For all the people worrying, it’s never as bad as people like zeihan predict. But we will go through a shift. Be kind to your family, friends and neighbours, you might need them one day.
That's one selfish reason to demonstrate kindness imo. Treat others as you wish to be treated.
Also, Zeihan as an American analyst really shows his bias. Always doomsday for everyone else but the US will be mostly fine. Let's also remember in his book "The Accidental Superpower" the outlook was way better about China, he already predicted the split of the EU in the decade(which means until 2020 which didn't happen) and stuff like that.
I like his analyses and he is sometimes spot on in the shortterm but longterm predictions he is wrong a lot(just like EVERYONE else).
@@hankkingsley9183 isn’t that equally selfish? Nothing in this world that we can label “social”, including your cute dog, loves you without getting something in return. Giving and receiving is the basis of every social relationship. The trick to make new relationships is to be the first one to give…
Its interesting to hear the attitudes like yours. "it's never as bad as people like zeihan predict". That's where people like yourself might be a little ignorant of history, true history. The Roman Empire killed at least 18 million, perhaps as much as 55 million, World War I (1914-18) 9.2 million deaths, Influenza pandemic (probably a result of returning soldiers, 1918-19) 20-40 million deaths, black death/plague (1348-50), 20-25 million deaths, AIDS pandemic (through 2000) 21.8 million deaths, World War II (1937-45), 15.9 million deaths, between the spring of 1959 and the end of 1961 some 30 million Chinese starved to death under Mao. These are just some off the top of my head. The world had a much lower population during these times so the percentages of total population were pretty high. So how many have to die before you consider it to be "as bad"? 🤔
@@nom_chompsky yeah but a fact is that even in war periods, most of the regular people don’t get hurt at all. I have 4 grand parent who have lived ww2.
“ The wealth of a nation isn’t printing money. It’s in your factories, farms, and services provided “. Vijay Boyapati Our wealth isn’t being sent overseas at such an extent.
Another unicorn who sees things clearly like me...
How unlikely is that? LOL you are correct but I don't understand why it's so difficult for everyone else to see that attempting to grow your wealth by adding money to the system while not adding any goods or services of value is not unproductive it's very counterproductive which is considerably worse then unproductive. All this fake ass money people think their using to grow their wealth that was made from leveraging money and absolutely nothing of value a product or service that can be responsible for adding the corresponding value it was supposed to represent means the only thing you did was steel value from what already existed and people still think that if they can just find that shortcut to the Easy Button or get that one lick or Hustle that puts a five or six digit log entry in their bank account just can't seem to grasp the fact that they are the problem and the reality is there is no free lunch you don't get something for nothing and eventually someone has to pay the piper it's just simply No Way Around It as all the mental gymnastics in the world can't create money from nothing only central banks can do that and if you try you'll go to jail for sure. Those hard-working people do things and make everything work people who actually do have wealth because they created something of value should all be outraged and demanding a stop be put to this diluting Dynamic that is reproducing money capable of procreation making more of itself but incapable of creating anything of value itself and without producing anything of value that coincides with it it's effectively a vampire feeding off of wealth and stealing it's value because all these worthless paper rectangles weren't created equal and once mixed into the pile you can't distinguish them from anything else pull them back out or treat them differently effectively sort of like a containment you can't go back and straighten it out just have to prevent further infiltration yet nobody seems to really care likely because they are investing in Financial Services themselves or whatever you want to call that group who sits on a big pile of money watching it grow faster than most hard-working people see their wealth grow creating absolutely nothing of value except for maybe a little work for the plastic surgeon as they sit on their ass doing nothing and getting fat because they pay others to do whatever physical activity normal people would do themselves on a day-to-day basis SMH simply because they can and nobody seems to recognize them as having a parasitical nature as the thing that keeps the working class from being able to properly benefit from their that benefit was hijacked by entitled narcissistic parasites play by different set of rules that they made up for just them exclusively but not you. One person in an auditorium watching a ballgame if they stand up they can see better but if everyone stands up everyone can't see better so it's only works for the few who are quite content to effectively cheat everyone else in order to get ahead
having to work harder to make to less in order to accommodate somebody not doing their part and yet deriving benefits as if they were just simply shouldn't be tolerated any more and any right-minded six-year-old looking to be fair could recognize that as not right so I'll never understand why everybody just accept it and allow it to continue and especially now because it is starting to have a very negative effect causing more and more able-bodied working-age people to sit on the sidelines and say screw it I'm not busting my ass to barely get by while a parasite leeching off of the majority's hard work to live better then everyone else through no effort of Their Own I don't think people realize that when the people who do produce value decide to sit it out because it's not worth the effort all the sudden the system's excess causes it to collapse under its own weight because there's no longer anything supporting it and there's no scenario where that ends well
It's a strange state of affairs that; as devastating as Covid 19 has been in the West, the move to move manufacturing out of China will enable America and many other nations to take advantage of the tech boom that has already begun.
The rest of the world has learned from China and Donald Trump's mismanaging of Covid, and the economic outcome that resulted, why alerting the world and taking action early on is vital. Hopefully the Covid Pandemic has woken the rulers of the world; so the world's countries will be prepared to take action when the next Pandemic occurs, which will most likely be bird flu that will make Covid seem like a walk in the park if mismanaged.
That's a great quote. That's why you still don't have toilets at home in India?
@b3arwithm3 jai hind
I forgot to say thanks also to Jordan for hosting Peter.
Sometimes you just can't fix stupid prognosticators. Peter is one of the biggest self proclaimed guru's and a legend in his own mind.
Agreed.
His latest prediction was that US is extremely able to meet the COVID crisis and that by 2021, US will no longer be reliant on China for PPE.
Reality in 2021, million COVID dead and US not only even more reliant on China for PPE, more reliant on everything else.
By 2023, China, which was a bit manufacturer of medicine in the global market (China essentially supplies her own markets and direct sphere of influence such as Pakistan and Mongolia )will now be sought as the solution for critical chemotherapy shortages in USA.
Peter is in wrong career. He’d be more successful salesman.
Yes, he has a lot of knowledge and talks about a lot of relevant points, but he really overstates many issues and is far too engrossed in painting doomsday predictions.
@@o2807another peabrain bobbing his head Peter is a deep thinker who is too complicated for lesser minds
I enjoyed the video but it's regrettable that the audio chopped up around 61-62 minutes mark regarding renewable and nuclear power. I'm particularly interested in that subject.
A little technical issue here: there's a ground loop when Zeihan is speaking. Tricky to figure out what's causing it, but if Harbinger himself or one of this team reads this, you should try to figure it out because it's quite annoying.
Well said.
You covered a lot of ground this time .
Thanks
Thank you for time stamp on videos HH Pete...🎉
Being born and raised in Hong Kong, and studied history as my major, I find Zeihan’s point of views are pretty solid.
Great video. As a Colombian I wish that my country can more fully integarte into the US-Mexico supply chain as a way to grow our economy and turn the page. We have a FTA with both countries in place and a great position.
Already one of the most beautiful (vis a vis culture and biome diversity).
Red to get your energy situation fixed and moving forward which it is the opposite now with the current politics.
I really hope Colombia can somehow get competent politicians in place who will move the country towards industrial integration with the US and Mexico. It'd be a win for everybody involved.
@@frankfarley2480 current politics is all doom and gloom, I hope for a better future
Columbians like venezuelans and mexicans have similar values/integrity/behavoir as the U.S. columbians assimilate so well to the crazy north americans. i think even cubans will be part of this trade successfully and will have enough growth to help carribeans and other south americans to assimilate into the new society formed. It's the only way to ensure black market commerce can be minimized.
He said China would collapse within the decade in 2010.
There's a lot of money to be made telling neocons and neoliberales what they want to believe.
There's also a gigantic amount of money to be made by transnational corporations, telling you, that shit is okay, Chinese manufacturing is the cool and you may invest money into our business which we run on Chinese manufacturing plants. CCP wants you to believe China is ok too.
Source?
@@newtonslogic 👍
Source for this?
@@newtonslogic I can't post a link because you know what TH-cam does with links. Google _business insider stratfor china collapse_ for the article from 22 Jan 2010. We are already 3 years past his 10 year time frame, and the collapse had not yet happened. So he has reset his time limit to 2030. He's taking the same path as the pillow guy. When the prediction doesn't happen, just double down and move the time into the future.
I enjoy listening to Peter "at the end of the day" Zeihan
Very content rich... This was a joy to listen to...
I think people should focus on the US’s upcoming collapse. Homelessness and rising debt, the split society and corrupt, self serving politicians are but a few symptoms of that disease
Us won't collapse, Petrol, Food and tech, they have anything they need, they will just lower standards of living.
Norway calling here. Very interesting take on our global situation. As member of a rich, small open economy with natural resources the insight I gather is that me and my country woman and men will survive in the short run, but will be doomed in the long run. We don´t have the military capabilities to fend off powers that need/want our resources. That much I have learned from being a history freak all my life. This will be the century of migration and unrest.
You dont have to fend/do it alone. You have the capabilities together. We survive and thrive together.
Swedish guy here. You're safe buddy, don't worry.
It could be worse, you could live in a country with the largest military, but it's slowly being trained to turn on it's own citizens 💯
Swedish guy here, don't do what Sweden did, blew the laubour market to pieces.
Only goverment subsidesed jobs remain, dependent entierly on raw material export..
Not to worry. A collapsing imperial power that began with Bretton Woods known as the USA is sucker enough to allow you to live under its defense umbrella along with the rest of parasite Europe.
Until it, The Host, finally expires.
Then, get out your white flags.
Been kinda obsessed with Zeihan for a few weeks now. Interesting perspective. One giant error he does here at around 22:15 is claiming USA has the highest social mobility in the world but it's placed 27th on the Global Social Mobility Index. Northern Europe is by far the best place in the world to be born poor, Western Europe after than. Even some Eastern European countries are above USA, along with some Asian ones.
Did he say it's number 1 in the world according to the Global Social Mobility Index?
@@Geokinkladzeseems like a pretty good way to judge.
@@vince6252 And? He hasn't necessarily made an error because he didn't use a metric you consider "a pretty good way to judge".
@@Geokinkladzedo you know what criteria peter used to make that claim? If not do you have a better metric/method to determine global social mobility rather than the global social mobility index?
@@arkparkp4185 "do you know what criteria peter used to make that claim? "
No. Do you?
"do you have a better metric/method to determine global social mobility rather than the global social mobility index?"
Define what you mean by better.
Then explain why a better metric would make Peter incorrect.
I've watched so many interviews with Peter covering essentially the same material of his latest work and every single time i manage to come away with some extra bit of information not previously covered. The depth and scope of his knowledge is incredible. Even if not 100% accurate all of the time it's still an invaluable source.
Not 100% accurate. It's 99% false. Let that sink in.
@snsshorts always happy to hear a counter argument if you would first be so kind as to qualify your opinion with a brief summary of your educational and professional experience relevant to this field.
@@sbailey977 No need. American lawmakers graduated from top universities and yet they are steering the United States to the brink of collapse. It's a declining superpower which is expected to disintegrate in the near future just like Europe.
@snsshorts that's hardly a rebutle
@@ipeteagles Just about all the President's senior people and big tech CEOs have visited China in the past few months. Doesn't that tell you something?
Meanwhile Zeihan keeps predicting the collapse of China which many Americans faithfully believe it's gonna happen tomorrow.
Peter’s books are great, densely packed with information while also being human and easy to read, not a dry textbook, his books have taught me so much and I’m so grateful, really good interview too, thank you
He is a propagandist,i hope you understand this.
@@ahshari Yes he obviously has a pro US bias, but there’s still tons of geopolitical knowledge in his books and I like his writing style, I also try to get other perspectives
His predictions never come true. Glad it's just a good read for you but not as truth.
I'm alarmed by how many things Zeihan doesn't know what he talking about. In another recent interview he referred to the BRICS as not including South Africa and asserted that South Africa was only contemplating whether to join -- when in fact South Africa joined in 2010 and is the "S" in BRICS! Now in this interview he's claiming the Liaoning had been a casino before being converted back to an aircraft carrier, when in fact the casino story was always a ruse for purchasing the ship from Ukraine and no such conversation to a casino was even started -- when it eventually arrived in China it was immediately refitted as China's first aircraft carrier. He also mistakenly thinks it was previously the Kuznetsov, when in fact it was a Kuznetsov-class called first the Riga and then the Varyag before being bought by China and being renamed the Liaoning. And on top of that, he is wrong that the ship was unreliable and "caught on fire from time to time" -- while it was "launched" and afloat in 1988 the carrier in fact was still UNFINISHED when construction stopped in 1990. So, no, it was not going around catching on fire like Zeihan claims.
I have caught other obvious misstatements of fact by Zeihan, and the thing that stuns me is the way he makes these statements with no hesitation or uncertainty -- which makes me wonder how reliable the rest of his "facts" actually are.
Everything this guy says is belief based. Another "guru"
@@pinecedar180 indeed, "belief-based" describes it perfectly. What's laughable are his claims the EU and China are going to implode by 2030. Yes, China has peaked and will soon decline due to demographics, much the way Japan peaked in 1989... but Japan is still around, despite their absurd levels of debt which must cause a crisis at some point... but even then, Japan will still be around and a major economy. The same goes for China -- does he really think Tibet or Hong Kong are going to break away, let alone the entire country disintegrate in civil war? Perhaps the regime will fall, but the history of North Korea suggests that a totalitarian regime can survive long past its "sell by" date.
Peter’s staff, if he has a staff, does not do an especially good job of keeping him on solid ground.
@@BlackhawkPilot no way he's got "staff", he's just a guy like Tom Friedman who makes a living turning his opinions into books. I just realized his reference to the ship "catching fire" in its previous (non-existent) life in Russian service, is him getting it mixed up with the Kuznetsov, which DID catch fire in 2009 while operating in the Russian Navy, and then after it entered drydock in 2018 following its deployment in support of operations in Syria, it caught fire again in 2019. But, I think we can attribute the 2009 fire to it being in service since 1991 without properly-funded maintenance.
He makes up a lot of lies. Trust me anybody who predicts a collapse of a country is a charlatan. He says a lot of things that are just wrong or outright lies. It’s amazing Stratfor paid this guy so much money. I think the fact he is gay is why the establishment prefer him. They love gay China bashers.
Out of curiosity, has any of his predictions ever come true?
American had predicted China collapse many time ago, it seem like China is getting stronger and powerful, and the America is losing the war everywhere, just look back at the American run away from Afghanistan a year ago, it is a laughing stock around the world,
ukraine conflict/banking system wasnt fixed in 08
Nope
He was generally correct about the Ukraine war happening no later than 2022, however like everybody else he was wrong about Ukraine collapsing quickly, which obviously didn't happened. Ukraine is still fighting but the outcome remains uncertain.
He has been predicting the imminent collapse of China any-minute-now for who knows how many years. If he keeps going, eventually, one day he would be right. Nothing lasts forever. But considering the fact that he's not going to live forever, and how long China has been around, I wouldn't hold my breath. Look at what Sri Lanka went through. And they have not ceased to exist. It's not just China. I wouldn't believe anybody predicting any country collapsing completely.
And my day just got better 🤘. Hope everyone is having a good day!
you guys do an amazing job breaking it down....I suppose I shouldn't use the statement, "breaking down"...but it is very enlightening, and thank you!
I’ve become a big fan of Zeihan in the last year, and I follow more than a few important geostrategists and professors. I’m really glad he’s getting the attention he deserves.
😊
Micheal Hudson?
@@sneakysky6398yes Michael Hudson is an academic who has experience and knows what he's talking about. Zeihan reminds me of Sam Harris in some way. Once in a while one of these guys becomes popular among Americans cause they are good for US ego. Sam Harris was the guy telling US that the US wars , invasions, crimes etc could be misguided but the intentions were good , US is the good guy while Zeihan is telling Americans, you are expeptional and better than the rest of the world, you will fare better than everyone else, China that wannabe super power will end soon.
This goes against the trend that clearly shows a decline of US military and economic power and the rise, yet again, of Asia. Zeihan seems to avoid the de- dollarization
@@davidfirmino3829 I argee Zeihan goes makes the US position seem better than it actually is relative to the rest of the world. But he has reminded me to go back to fundamentals, which that most nations don’t have all the resources they need and must trade for them. Weather they use technology to make products like japan or South Korea or export raw materials like Africa. Without trade both won’t have what they need. I think China has what I call a resource bottleneck. It has the hardworking labour and some tech. But it’s main drawback is lack of farmland and raw materials.
@@davidfirmino3829 If China can export some of its population and reduce the population in China it can become like Japan in terms of wealth once it catches up technologically but as long as there are 1.4+ billion people I don’t think the earth can support that people living American way in terms of consumption. This is why I don’t see India as the future superpower. I look at India and see China but behind India will have the same natural resources bottleneck but worse. I think if Africa can get its act together it could become quite wealthy, it doesn’t have the resource bottleneck of India and China. India can fit into Africa 12 times!!! Africa is the opposite of china a lot of resources but not so much technology. But that is a better predicament as you can develop tech. You can’t “develop” or “learn” how to produce more iron ore you have it or you don’t.
One of the most fascinating and in depth discussions I've ever heard on the significant and relevant topic of global economy. Great job and I can't wait to hear more of your work.
Peter Zeihan is one of the worst people to listen to. He is so completely and ridiculously wrong but manage to sound and appear intelligent. But if you listen to a few other geopolitics analysis, you will quickly realize he's full of shit.
i submit the global economy is in dire circumstances due to the CBD ; central bank dynasty ; owners of all central banks and perps of all govt debt ===> bankruptcy of all nation states.. resulting in mass depop
His prediction was absolutely correct, this year China's economy can only grow 5.2%, very scary, it is likely to collapse.
An awesome interview and educational piece regarding international trade, future prospects for the global economy, and important international politics and insights for the future.
Harry Dent made a bunch of predictions around 20 years ago based on demographics that didn't come true... Being a futurist is a tricky business
He just doesn't know what he's talking about!
He learned that lesson and starting to predict what going to happen in 2030. 😊
Americans are out of depth for so long
@@jc080996 yes, he used to predict next year,
Thank you
Zeihan just can't keep saying this over and over. He said China would collapse in 1 week...and that was 2 years ago.
The first Chinese carrier was never a casino. They bought it from the Ukraine in a 1/3 finished state in the aftermath of USSR collapse with the official reason it would be used as a floating casino. They towed the rusty hull to China and refurbished it for the Navy. So it was never a casino.
@Esoteric common sense And his takes on Ukraine were and are garbage. Took him 6 months to realize RU lost after the first month.
When it’s a crisis of consumption and not production due to automation I feel like we all know the answer. It’s a foolish society who sees the ability to produce more than they can consume ,without human labour no less, as a a problem. This is just a problem for the rich. We could always use our production to ensure all needs of a shrinking population are met, but rich people wouldn’t be able to exploit the poor that way.
(1) Was said the same about the Printing Press, Cotton Gin, Railroad, Electric Light, Typewriter, Farm Traitor, etc. Yes, job lost, but new profession came into play and human move on. (2) Without the continues producing, we would not have had the iphone, computers, EV, airplanes today. As human, we make things not knowing will there be a consumption of what I make. (3) Rich exploit the Poor is like America only have two classes and those whom are rich, never taste being poor nor a poor man cannot become rich by his labor and hard work. (4) To put a good note and smile on your face, you can watch Prince Harry getting a taste of being poor, soon, if that make you happy.
Same Peter podcast different host. Never gets old
Please reupload the video and audio is all messed up at the end
14:34 "Kuzenov" No, Peter, they did not call it Kuzenov. They called it Kuznetsov, and in fact still do.
Lioaning was sold "as a casino" but that was just a cover story. It was commissioned a few years ago and is no longer just a training carrier which it was for the first year or two. Unlike Kuznetzov, Liaoning and Shandong don't use Mazut, don't need a tug. A fourth ship in this class serves in India but is due to be retired in the next few years or so. Air complement on all is circa 36 a/c, either fixed wing OR rotary (some wrongly say AND, which is wrong)
What I am saying is: Peter knows not of what he speaks. There was not horrible piracy pre-WW2 or pre-WW1. Piracy was suppressed by around 1860 at worst, and will not in fact recur, which means global trade will continue even if the USN withdrew entirely from the Eastern hemisphere *which it will never do*
I just wonder how long till other analysts notice the main premises of his work are wrong and in consequence his policy prescriptions and other predictions are also wrong?
They will.
The problem is people like Zeihan just gives enough 'facts' that they layman thinks it to be truth when it is not.
Like you said the casino thing is a good example. He made it sound like the USSR built it, but it was terrible, then it became a casino and China stupidly bought it.
People are dumb and when they hear things like these they eat it up and becomes an echo chamber.
With AI and robotization the problem is exactly the opposite. How to find work? Many societies even have the basic guaranteed income programs to feed the unemployed or unemployable (welfare etc.). So fewer people in the long run is better, for the environment, the future, and the sustainability.
Great podcast, thank you.
Thanks!
@1:10:00, why watch Brazil for fertilizer moves when it is a lagging indicator ?
Man JH is the GOAT of podcasting. Such great questions
Don’t discount Peter’s impeccable communication skills. Read his latest book. If you enjoyed this interview, you’ll love his book.
You hit the nail on the head regarding the green energy thing and that's what a lot of people pushing it fail to realize...That the sheer amount of materials needed vastly outstrips what we make per year, even if we dropped the manufacturing of everything else (and i mean EVERYTHING) and pooled all those materials into making the world run on green energy it would barely make a dent in what we need to actually make the world run on green energy...Another thing they forget is that not every place on the planet is actually suitable for green energy storage, a good example is Australia, we tried a battery bank/green energy farm for a single town and guess what happened to the battery bank? It caught fire because the AC units couldn't keep up with both the amount of heat the battery banks put out while storing energy and the heat from the weather (basically the AC units shat themselves and burnt out trying to keep up)...Plus that battery bank/green energy farm was a colossal failure due to the fact when they did a tally of the towns power usage after they concluded the "test" the battery bank/green energy farm accounted for...0.2% of the total power usage for the town with the rest coming from coal/oil/gas...
Not with Geothermal. That's the dark horse.
@@unconventionalideas5683 We don't have any suitable spots for geothermal power apart from a single spot in QLD and it's already in use.
What's the solution? Give up and stay with dirty energy?
You're talking like we have the option?
@@zollen123 Something that the US, China and UK/EU use called a nuclear power plant but i don't see that happening any time soon even though we 1. have so much space to put one where it wouldn't harm anyone 2. have massive aquifers inland that they can draw from for water to cool the reactors 3. we seem to be more than happy to store nuclear waste from OTHER countries underground in disused mines 4. we have a breeder facility to make our own nuclear fuel rods but we ship them to other countries only apart from a very tiny amount because 5. we DO have a nuclear reactor but it's use is purely scientific and not for power generation.
The main reason is the Greens party, they still to this day think a nuclear power plant will go off like a nuke, explode like Chernobyl or Fukishima and some think the area around a plant if we had one would become super irradiated the moment we power the thing on...We've been trying for DECADES to get one built here to lessen the need for coal/oil/gas power but the Greens have always put a stop to that even though out of coal/oil/gas/nuclear, nuclear power is the least polluting out of those four major power types for large scale power generation and the most energy and fuel efficient in the fuel to power ratio.
The US population is in decline...
In 2019-20-a year partially affected by the pandemic-the national growth rate dropped to 0.35%. Then, during the first full pandemic year of 2020-21, annual growth fell to a historic low of 0.16%-a result of the substantial rise in deaths coupled with declines in births and immigration.
Correction, the rate is declining.
There was a CRITICAL flaw in Peter's reasoning at one point. "... high inflationary yes, but people forget about the high growth part...". This flaw in reasoning is almost universally found among economists and economic commentators as well as in governments. First of all, growth does NOT impact the lower income part of the population positively in a way that OUTWEIGHS the negative impact of increased inflation. I am consistently stunned by how these people cannot seem to fathom this. High growth is mainly positive for (a) high wealth individuals, (b) those owning the means of production (sad to be using Marx, but it is true nonetheless), (c) anyone directly involved in the supply chain that is affected by the growth economy and (d) governmental coffers. There is a short term benefit to people that previously had no income that now get a job, but CRUCIALLY this is a SHORT TERM benefit. See, the part you guys seem to gloss over (or are completely oblivious to) is that indefinite growth is IMPOSSIBLE without indefinite inflation and as soon as the growth slows down which it absolutely will, since again, it is not possible to maintain absolute growth at any sort of rate over the long term, the inflationary impact that built up during the high growth phase obliterates any sort of wealth or potential wealth among the populace in general. These people always seem to talk about macro economic scenarios that can be within the control of entities like "Apple" (you could pick from almost any company on the stock market). Inflation has for all intents and purposes no impact on a company like Apple, for extremely obvious reasons, hence, coupled with the fact that their entire reason for existing is to increase shareholder value, growth is all that matters. This is simply NOT TRUE for the average person. The thinking that a high economic growth environment is somehow de facto good for a country at large is false. I would like to point out that the average person has gotten LESS wealthy over the last 40 years DESPITE the economy having grown hugely over that same period. Purchasing power has decreased whilst the comparative cost of "things" have increased above any sort of increase in the ability to own said things. Moreover, "trickle down economics" does NOT work in current day even if it might or might not have 50 years ago. Therefore, any sort of boom in growth among the upper echelons in the economy does not have any sort of comparatively equivalent boom in wealth lower down the line. I mean, do I really have to spell it out? Here is an example: Let's say Apple comes out with record profits this year. Do they (a) distribute said profits as wage increases among their employees, (b) dole out dividends to shareholders, (c) increase potential future growth with further investment in the company or (d) "bank" profits as cash in an offshore bank account? I am willing to bet my life that (a) is not the answer. Employees see VERY little benefit of company wealth increasing nearly always, especially if this is a public company. Lastly, in the current model there is no solution to this because of the very nature of the system. Purchasing power will continue to decrease, no matter what, until such a time that we sit with a very wealthy small percentage and the rest of the population just being in abject poverty. Yet, as soon as someone shouts "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" that person is disregarded for being some sort of commie lunatic. Be better and start thinking more of your fellow humans than trash like "Apple".
I don’t get that how you missed the Indian demography as a potential hi-skill and low skill labor supply for manufacturing and global supply chain. Or am I missing something?
Wow, one of my favorite conversations on this channel, super informative! thank you!
But tit ee
What the fuck is wrong with this podcast at an hour in?
well, everyone else just predicted China collapse, no one predicted half billion people starvation. This guy is just at a new level of ignorance and stupidity
I always learn so much when I listen to Peter Zeihan.
They have been saying that China would fall for 30 years now.
Peter Zeihan is just Gordan Chang's No. 2.
Yeah, China’s economy has only functioned for 4,000 years and briefly didn’t during Mao, but someone it’s all gonna stop in 2030. LOL
Bingo!
Wow, he doesn't understand the European Union. Didn't expect that. If Germany was broke back when Greece went bankrupt, Greece would have been kicked out of the Eurozone and would have stayed in the EU. The European Union and the Eurozone are not the same thing. The Union has a wide array of different nations at different parts of their own development, some of which participate in things like the Eurozone and others who don't. It is about much more than simple US-mindset economics. Shocked he doesn't know this.
Where can this guests book be found? Thanks
I disagree on the forecast about the European Union, it's a common mistake in the Anglosphere to consider it only an economical union and that with the economical benefit shrinking that it would collapse. The union is first a POLITICAL choice by those countries to keep being relevant on the world stage and have any say. The dissolution of the union would leave the single countries alone, less influent and therefore over time with even more economical disadvantages like being strongarmed into uneven agreements with entities like the US.
Agree
That's already happening. The metropolitan area already trying to function independently. I spoke to an international geopolitical executive who was trapped in China up until a few months ago, he said, is collapsing already, and they are trying to secure the minimum live saving trading. China is collapsing already.
But they are willing to do everything to have their moment in the sun as the dictating great power. Even if it's whatever Xi's wishes writ large. And the diplomatic breakthroughs that they've made and the leverage they have in the present are having real world effects and making an argument to a lot of the world that U.S. democracy doesn't work and doesn't protect national interest--and that the U.S. (and Europe/Western Europe) are in irreversible decline. [This is something that gets proven from the ultimate failures to advance on diplomatic goals from maybe the 1990s to now.]
It isn't... it's nowhere close to collapsing.
BlueJ, I'm a month in your future. No sign of this collapse that you claim ALREADY started. Maybe, every couple of months, somebody can check in and mention if they have seen it yet.
@@sparkeyjones6261 I think the West will collapse before China. The fact that China is the only surviving civilization (5000 years) to date tells you something.
The CCP is not the oldest surviving political system, the borders of "China" have changed dramatically since people began living in the region. China has been a series of empires which has experienced many collapses and invasions/dissolutions throughout its history. The CCP is the current empire which took over from the previous government which is currently in Taiwan, and this disruption event occurred less than 100 years ago. It's collapsing yet again, it's not stable at all. What was the purpose of the Great Wall again?
Peter is far more cheerleader than analyst
I hate to spoil this apparent secret but he works for the government. He's what they call a "soft discloser". That's a general term that tests the waters for views within the government. They are pushed based on the mainstream traction they gain and will end up getting attention commensurately. There are 3 main views relating to China in the government; that they'll collapse in 2030, 2035 and 2040. While there are other viewpoints, those are the main three. He expands upon that and explains it will be 2030 bc of the dictator trap causing a collapse before the demographics alone cause imminent failure. I did a lot of research on this in undergrad around 2003-2005. I predicted 2040 at that point and I basically still think that; It'll likely be after 2035 but before 2040. It depends on how long Xi lives. Obviously I didn't know about him at that time, but their desire to have an authoritarian seemed obvious to anyone who saw Failman Mao. I think Xi's moving out of office will cause a failure for whoever follows him. Could be 2028, could be 2038.
Really great job of getting Peter’s impressive brain to deep dive into incredibly relevant matters. Much appreciated.
He talks out his ass
I was introduced to this channel from the china show and I like this Chanel very informative
Thanks, Jordan.
What I find most lacking in his analysis is how Capitalism operates and interacts with technology to keep on surviving. These are not the first resource crisis in the history of this economic system, in fact it is not the most serious one. There is much wiggle room for the system do de-escalate on energy usage. And technology can steer people into a world of less consumption in terms of resources, just by transforming life-styles and working regimes.
Also, there is much ignorance on how much the US is dependent on the rest of the world. If today Americans are less dependent on the rest of the world in terms of GDP, it is because laborer's compensation is so much higher than in the other parts of the world the US get their goods from. If wages grow for the exporter countries in general, all imports will rise accordingly and make the United States more dependent.
It is also highly inaccurate to say a supply chain can close in China and open in Mexico in the span of a couple of decades. First of all, in the meantime the Chinese are developing cutting edge technologies, so it becomes less and less dependent on the costly labor force of Europe and US to get capital inputs and financing. Second of all, China can very well secure a safe position with its neighbors to secure a safe stream of food and energy (Russia's east lands are largely up for agricultural development and energy infrastructure), as well as other important minerals (mostly from Central Asia).
The Chinese geopolitical view, I think, is of a multi-polar world, where the rich get poorer and the poor get richer, so Latin America, for example, can pretty much unite as a continent with shared identity (Bolivarianism), form and alliance with East Asia and confront the US imperialism. In fact, we see this happening at the very moment. The US is no longer the main foreign investor in Brazil. China is. And as the central economies have to compete with the emerging regional powers, their capacity for domination diminishes, leaving room for domestic distress and power restructuring in the poorer countries.
I don't see how a country that benefited from global imperialism, be it European or its own, can maintain a strong position going forward while the world collapses around it.
Basically, you're saying that everyone is going to gang up against America. That makes sense.
Considering that we enjoyed great prosperity these past 70 years and everyone else has been struggling, I can see how a large target could be painted onto our backs -- an incredibly large target.
I think most people would prefer South America over China
The USA and Europe only represent 20 % of global population. Yours is a minority view. Check Workd Bank statistics on the world economy.
@58:00, has Italy had a colony since fall of empire ?
Geothermal is a huge dark horse in the Green Energy space that everyone is ignoring, but at the rate it is advancing, it will easily kill most of the need for the material input and energy storage currently projected while simultaneously being the final nail in the coffin for fossil fuels just about everywhere in the world.
Not sure why Peter is convinced aircraft carriers can't protect water ways as well as destroyers. The planes leave the deck, giving aircraft carriers far better reach/range than a fleet of destroyers.
What an interesting episode, guest, and topic. The course of events laid out by Peter Zaihan is a bit like hearing about a future train wreck where a ton of countries are all individual cars (?) with their own mechanical failures. What an unforunate end to such a relatively prosperous and fortunate time if he is right. 2030-40 seems like a very quick time scale to my eye but at least I know what warning signs to look for with some of these issues. Good luck to everyone regardless.
I don´t think he is right ...world change...but also adapt. No trend can be interpolated longer than a few years. Reality is too complex. Just look at all the people predicting some development in the past. They get very few things right.
it's a pretty good disaster script
too bad it's wrong.
And good luck to you as well.
Peter is a zionist and has the gall to say White people are racist?
@@taylorc2542 where?!?
"Well this sucks, everybody out!" Best description of economic migration ever
He has yet to explain how he thinks it can happen in a nation where the govn't has digital command of all travel permissions and currency use.
@@asnark7115 I'm more interested in seeing you explain how you think. People flee from totalitarian regimes all the time - look at North Korea or Cuba. When things get bad enough and people have nothing left to lose they will go elsewhere.
China owns like most of our farm land... I mean.. this fact and these theories don't add up. I need a smart person to explain this to me.
😂dude grow up.
@@chrisjackson1215 all the time? How many people have actually successfully escaped North Korea?
are the graphical artifacts and cut outs around 1:00:00, on my end or their end? couldn't figure out what they were saying
Life in China was incredibly comfortable, safe and beautiful before COVID.
I don't understand why Peter doesn't ever talk about drought, which is going to cause serious water shortages.
Because it’s not predictable .
If you're referring to global warming, it's a common misconception created by fear mongering mainstream media that droughts will become more common. In actuality, on the whole the world will become wetter. How this manifests at the local level is unpredictable and some places may indeed have more frequent or more severe droughts, but in large part there will be more surface water, more evaporation, and more precipitation around the world.
He covers it in his books and some of his lectures. He posits that some areas of the world will be hit with severe drought, while others will benefit (for at least a while) from climate change from increased rainfall. His position on climate change is that 1) we can't currently predict exactly what will happen on a region by region basis, it's just too complex, 2) some places, like the American Midwest, could become wetter improving crop yields, while the Southwest most likely will become dryer and cause a major population migration.
Overall the warming climate will increase rainfall. Some places may become drought prone but many more other places will get wetter.
@@MrKaiRobinson The glaciers in the Himalaya will disappear what could cause problems for China and India.
I am very impressed with this discussion. And saddened that so few people have seen this too.
Keep it up. Thank you for making this available.
Well you have a leg up…
The more people talk about this now the better off we will be in the future.
@@BartimaeusAurelius we need a coming to jesus moment as a country, if we dont make aome serious changes in the next 5-10 years were in deep water.
If you believe the USA Naval Forces is there to safe guard International Commoners, you have much to see worldwide and read world history. They are not out there for mankind.
I’m surprised that he said that Vietnam is the Southeast Asia country that will be the biggest trade partner in the region and no Indonesia. Indonesia is projected to be the 4th economy of the world by 2045 and with strong demographics to boot.
We are ACTIVELY turbo charging Vietnam industrial base similar to how we did China….Indonesia is growing at it’s OWN pace where Vietnam is growing at the pace the US needs and will be scaled up to accommodate as we scale down in China….
@@pierregibson6699 let’s hope so. The majority of south east Asia seems to be more comfortable under the influence of the US rather than China.
A new axis between China, Russia e Iran is forming again since the recent sanctions.
My biggest doubt is India: it’s still unclear which side they will choose (if they choose one at all).
YEAR 2045 ❓️❓️❓️
WHAT A WILD PREDICTION ❗️❗️❗️❗️
IF WE HAD SUCH ACCURATE SOOTHSAYER....WHY YOU DID NOT ADVICE YOUR OWN PRESIDENT BIDEN TO STOP HIS STUPIDITY IMPLEMENTING VERY DANGEROUS SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND ON OTHER NATIONS IN THE WORLD .....DONT FORGET THOSE SANCTIONS WERE FOR DECADES IN THE MOST CRUELLEST WAYS ❓️❓️❓️❓️❓️
THESE ARE AMERICA IMPERIALISM ....IN ITS MOST MERCILESS AND CRUELEST WAYS DOMINATING THE WORLD.....FOR DECADES ❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️
WHAT BIDEN HAD DONE BY HELPING UKRAINE WAS A HUGE NO❗️❗️ NO ❗️❗️❗️
WHY YOU COULD NOT HELP BIDEN TO STOP PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA ......MIGHT SAVE AMERICA LOSING HER DOMINANT WORLD CURRENCY ❗️❗️❗️❗️
IT IS ALWAYS SOME ECONOMIST OR WAR ANALYST OR SENIOR BOOK WRITERS OR EVEN JOURNALISTS KNEW THE ANSWER TO AMERICA ECONOMIC DISASTERS COMING......WHY SPEAK UP NOW WHEN IT IS TOO LATE ❗️❗️❗️❓️❓️❓️
Don't be concerned...it was always neutral and remain that way
@@VincitOmniaVeritas7 the majority of SEAsia is comfortable trading with both China and the US. Nobody wants this war that the US seems to be looking for. ASEAN is today China's principal trade partner, larger than the China-US and China-EU trade.
China is already the worlds super power. They have the largest military in the world. They own pretty much the worlds raw mining areas. Did I mention BRICS? China is not dumb.
Could there be a short version of this: highlights.
These days there's SO MUCH CONTENT!
Over an hour is a large time commitment.
I get that more view hours is good for monetisation.
It’s mostly a load of bloated American propaganda
I would have enjoyed hearing an analysis of Africa’s future contribution to the demographic and productivity issues.
He is very bearish on Africa
@@TyberiusDe why?
@@phantomcreamer Bad geography.
@@phantomcreamer
Africa has an absolutely awful geography, despite being between the Americas, Middle East and Asia, mostly due to the Sahara that divides it into 2, but has very few water, poor soil and many political divisions with poor infrastructure and low skilled populations. Africa is basically screwed.
Nigeria holds potential, but, but, but. They have a young, large population, arable land, oil. But, the y have consistently failed to develop agriculture, broaden the reach of education, and eliminate corruption to attract foreign trade and investment. It is sad and frustrating to observe. If, if, if...
Living in China, it doesn’t feel like the population collapse is gonna be the big problem at all. The rapid pace of technology is scarier than anything else.
China is automating at a rate way faster than any western nation. The EV explosion is just a byproduct of the massive technological advancement the nation is making.
Drones are already poised to take over the massive delivery industry. Self driving vehicles are so close. Flying cars are releasing next year. AI is now in Chinese cars and can chat with kids and answer any homework questions. They are rapidly developing both civilian and military grade robots.
What is left for humans to do except have the billion of us left to fight for developing robots? This nation will be fully sustainable by machines before any other country at this rate.
1. When he's talking about the iPhone components he doesn't mention coltan or cobalt.
Now cobalt for example, is the single most centralized metal when it comes to extraction, 70% of the world's supply comes fron DR Congo. Pretty much the same story for coltan.
But I guess he 'forgot' to mention that, which is really weird in light of the December 13, 2022 US-DRC-Zambia Memorandum of Understanding. (This is where you look at the date of this upload and see the memorandum publication was about a month and a half before the upload, meaning he certainly was aware of it)
Or maybe he didn't want to talk about that because of his pipe dream of a self sufficient American continent supply chain system.
2. He does a lot of NAFTA throwing around, weird he never mentions the SCO.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation now includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
You might think these are neglectable nations outside of Russia, China and India, but just look at a map what block they form.
Add to that they have as observing and dialogue members countries as Afghanisyan, Belarus, Iran, Mongolia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Egypt, Turkey, Nepal, Qatar Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka.
Basically, this guy has a USA centrist view and his analysis reflects that, mainly by projecting the rest of the world as an empty cooperative organisation space.
India now makes 20% of I phones, very soon it will be the largest Apple manufacturer, with many component manufacturers setting up plants in India.
It's not just that. Nowadays in order to be competitive on world markets, a country needs a 500 million people consumption base and China has a 500 million young people, even with a population decline, china will still have 600 700 million people in 50 years. It's not a production crisis as well, because thanx to automation what it matters today is not cheap labor but cheap energy, access to cheap energy resources and Russia can guarantee that and unlike this dude says, Russia has all the necessary technologies to gain access to the arctic deposits. This dude is delusional like all the American elites. He keeps talking about the mississipi when many scientists have confirmed the lack of water the river is starting to experience for the next 30 years.
Iv'e always loved Peter Zeihans analysis of global issues but...... when did he start doing interviews with Glibert Gonfrey Jr?
How does climate change gets calculated into this discussion?
Peter probably reads the book of Gordon Chang "The Coming Collapse of China" written 20 years ago 😄
He is probably a follower or fan of G.C............Gordie is retired from writing books the publisher told him GFYS😁
Peter learned from his failure and now predicts much longer time, even though it will fail again.
This gentleman is quite knowledgeable. Thank you.
With bs in his head 😂
This discussion is highly informative and thought provoking. Quality listening. Subscribing. Thank you. 🔜🇺🇲👊
Do you really believe the stuff he says 🤣
What headset/mic is Peter using? Would love to know.
Oh jeez do not get that headset 😂
@@JordanHarbingerShow Oh, okay.
What about the belt and road rail network the old silk road . Its extensive
Very simplistic
Thank you for this video. Mr. Zeihan is quite an interesting speaker. A big part of me hopes he is seriously wrong but I suspect he is not.
Subscribed.
Another brainwashed Zeihan clown.
Geopolitical analyst are not more right than stock analyst. He didn't see the deglobalization movement at all. He predicted global conflict would be highly unlikely going forward(Russland says hi). (both from his book The Accidental Superpower)
The way he talks you always feel like he is super certain about things but analyst just update their predictions. Sometimes they are right but often wrong.
He is still always very informative.
I like if Zeihan talks about China and Russia collaps
Watch the collaps, coming sooner then later....
Robots don't comsume? Don't they consume energy? And technician's time? I dunno, he has interestig ideas, but he tends to cut corners.
I also wonder if ' global trade' didn't start well before the Industrial Revolution. The Hanseatic League? The VOC? I dunno. And many other yhings I have my doubts.
But still very interesting points. I love his realisation of the importance of the Mississippi basin for example.
I really enjoyed this 'interview'
Yes, they'll need a few technicians, but that means less workers overall.
He tends to make some things up to support the conclusions he must be getting paid to publicize, just like he did when he was at StratFor. Maybe he left StratFor because he felt "restricted"?
Peter Zeihan likes to oversimplify things. But I enjoy listening to him even though I am positive half the things he predicts will not come to pass.
Try everything he predicts, taking in mind that a dead clock is right twice a day.
Oh man, the floods that Peter talked about just happened a few months ago. Total destruction of crops and towns.
His prediction was absolutely correct, this year China's economy can only grow 5.2%, very scary, it is likely to collapse.
An interesting point of view presented. One issue with this podcast is that there is no counter views and the host does not really challenge the guest. So the overall impression is that it is biased. For example there was very little discussion on the highly polarized political landscape in the US and its future impact if any.
Politic is only 1/3 of the equation. Geography and demography are the other 2/3s. This guy presumes that the latter two are significantly more relevant than first. So he doesn’t do deep dives into politics. He even goes so far as to say “that’s a political question”, and dances around it, when he is pushed on the issue.
Ummm... the US just is not all that more polarized than in the past. You just have almost all the mdia on one side of the issue.
He addresses US politics on his website quite often.
@@richarddelotto2375 Well…that’s not new either. People have no concept of how much they hated Reagan and Nixon, and love Clinton.
@@joemamma137 Some boomers remember. Oh-- PZ does indeed do deep dive on factions and coalitions in US politics, just not in every pitch. Here is one: th-cam.com/video/3_GrDbcC0N4/w-d-xo.html
If his predictions about China and Russia come true, which he lays out damning evidence for, the world is going to be a VERY interesting place, especially for us Americans 👍🇺🇸
If we bring manufacturing back
They have been predicting Chinas collapse for 30 years now so no
dude ur dollar gonna dump hard. no one is interested in using it 😂
@@maskyb3509 is that why its still number 1 in international trade and the most important economic commodity is based on it?
@@StevenSanchez_95
Yeah, assuming politicians dont absolutely screw everything up.
But still, until that's done, inflation is gonna be hell and life will be VERY hard.
But things get better afterwards.
But it's still far better than the rest of the world. The rest of the world is absolutely screwed.
Peter is brilliant
The i.q. of Venezuela does not warrant trying to rebuild it. Just rebuild the oil fields, take the oil and give the Venezuelans an allowance small enough that they won't destroy themselves with it.
Oh my, no wonder Pete was so on top of rebuilding the Maryland port!!!!!
What I love about every interview is finding out what bad things kids are now
Actually it seems to be more like, "The Kids, with all their stereotype faults, will find a way. If we manage the right 'big picture' frame for the problem"
@@watchthe1369 There is a meme about how Peter is going to describe kids in Industrial Society... they go from free farm labour to expensive ...
Some of the usual are furniture and habits though I think I have heard pets and hobbies before
@@watchthe1369 ya so the going joke though out all his talks and books are that kids keeping switching from, talking peaces, furniture, tripping hazards, habits, bobbies, etc
so I what love about every interview is finding out what kids are this time
Just found this . Absolutely fascinating conversation on China. Real eye opener. MSM rarely look at this in such detail. Subscribed👍
He literally expressed what CNN says
Haha MSM is a complete joke
@@challismThings that aren’t msm are a joke as well.
This guy sounds like a self-help guru, just telling people what they want to hear.
Good to know I’m not the only one
Exactly!
Lips service. Good English.
exactly hahaha
Which guy.
It’s so insightful! Thank you!
Peter doesn't know that the Navy is going full swing to automation. The Navy is struggling with manpower also.
USN/Marine shipbuilding and maintenance is trapped in a death spiral as well. Lots of problems with members of the labor pool being problem cases, but that side of the maritime industry being so staff challenged that they float around like bad pennies.
US ship ready rates and times in dock have have been continually negatively impacted for a decade plus now
@@Badjujubee The shipyards in NYC and Philly were the best. Never should of moved to Virginia or Birmingham Alabama.
I think there are two demographic crisis. One is understood that is about age. Another is about education and health. If you look current young people in West they often dont have correct skills and education. Also they are far more worst health and physical shape than their parents. Their ability to participate to work life is more limited because those two. So age based demographics are only part of the story. Economist just dont often look the socio-economic side of demographics.
I’m an American living in Shanghai. My life wasn’t terrible in USA. I could’ve worked on it a bit more but overlooking the government here (which puts me on the verge of leaving every month or two) there are some benefits to living here. My savings potential is great. I’m able to save 60-75% of my salary. Besides rent (which I receive nearly 2k housing allowance for) I don’t spend too much money and more importantly I work at an international school which allows my child to attend a very high quality education for almost free. That’s not too bad. Still I’m eyeing my move back to the states.
I have lived in Shanghai for over 10 years. Really great. If you want to compare which country is better, you can go back to the States to try again.
@@judyy2006 of course I will do that but in my own time. I don’t need some random commenter (probably some Chinese troll) on TH-cam to decide my life 🤟
@@jameshightower8875 Sir, TH-cam is a freedom platform, if you don't want others to comment, please leave silence, if you don't like China, you can leave there, no one cares. By the way, I am Australian, I like Chinese. I don't want to say China is not suitable for me when I enjoy their convenience there..
@@judyy2006 haha you are speaking Chinese propaganda and ideas claiming to be Australian. I’ve met dozens and dozens of aussies. You’re Australian by passport not culture 💯
@@jameshightower8875 👆 you absolutely right 💯
Using Chinese and China synonymously is a huge red flag for a propagandist. Nobody in their right mind thinks China is convenient after covid in 2021. You'd need to be confusing the word convient with inconvenient.