Hi Gerald, I agree with Life Slices, great analysis of the influences affecting Thailand's property market. Btw, your videos are getting better and better.
You mentioned in your vid (this one or another) that it is possible to purchase without having to be in Thailand physically. Can you say more about that, or where I can find more information on what that all entails?
Your videos are very instructive and interesting. I'm currently in Bangkok and I'm about to try to become a freelance real estate agent (with the help of the asian.estate agency). I never did that job professionally before, only help some friends for find some nice place to rent. I don't know if I will be able to do it but anyway your videos are really great for helping me understand how to do things.
I appreciate you analysis, thanks. How does this correlate with the high personal debt ratio which is pretty high right now in Thailand? Many real estate investors are heavily indebted and I can see so many empty condos in the city center. For me it feels like a bubble waiting to burst.
I don't see many indebted buyers, over half our buyers are cash buyers. I've been hearing about bubbles for years. If you ask me, 30% liquidation that we see now is a low as it going to go. It's only going to go up form here. I never understand all the doom and gloom about real estate market corrections. I have yet to seen a real estate market fail to recover after a correction. It may take time, but it will always recover. I've owned stocks that have gone to zero, I have never owned property that lost me even one cent as long as I am patient.
I am not an expert but attractive real estate items won't be much of a bargain(as you in different words suggested). I think the people that needs to sell are the people that could barely afford to buy at the time of purchase, so what's available won't be of much interest to an investor or upgrader. Anyway that is what I felt looking at the market lately.
The personal economic situation pre-covid and now can be dramatically different. I don't think that you can safely assume that because they are liquidating now that they were financially stressed in the past. I personally bought quality investment property during covid. Few people are selling their primary residence, what we are seeing is second homes or investment properties being liquidated to create cash flow for the sellers.
@@geraldenright9845 one can stare and disturb flies from the dead animal , not the predator, show me some really good bargains in this bad moment if you can, I think you misunderstood my point.( and that is strange as by what you say in your video it seems to me that we are on the same wave length).
Senior vice president of Bank of Bangkok said in October 2020, that there was approximately 300,000 over supply of new unsold property. Condo's depreciate about 5% a year on average. People who have money in property in Thailand, are in for a massive hit. The Thai economy is down 20% of it's GDP currently. The Baht is now the worst performing currency in the ASEAN area according to Japanese Bank. The Thai economy will get much worse, and property has not hit the bottom as far as prices are concerned. When the economy hits the deck, it will take many years, possibly as many as ten years to turn around. Anyone who has money in Thai property will be lucky to see it again.
Buy low, sell high. Fortunes are made from low points in economies. I would not buy in any Western countries right now with prices at all time highs. I don't concur with your conclusion that anyone putting money in property in Thailand now would be "luck to see it again".
Definitely not in the area I serve. Bangkok is a major global city and the prices reflect that fact. It's cheaper than Paris, London, Tokyo, Singapore, but not cheaper than rural USA. It's hard to get into the Bangkok CBD for less than 100K USD.
for those foreign investor brought small condo unit 2 yrs back with 15% deposit, what is your advice for them? to sell at lost if can? to do the completion as TOP now and wait till the market recovery a few years later and then sell?
That's a really difficult situation. It could really depend on each person's tolerance for loss as well as their financial resources to complete payment and wait for recovery. If you think you could recuperate the 15% on a different investment, I may be tempted to try to sell or just not complete. Cut your losses and come back when the market is picking up again. If, on the other hand, you are happy to complete and really don't need the money in the next couple of years, then maybe you just hold for better days, after all it is a real asset.
Can you explain more on how you arrived at your conclusion of a upcoming condo prices? I can't see how that could be. First and foremost,. Not all condos are the same size and,. at its core, real estate is a commodity hence the price is calculated by size of the property. There's no way a 400sqm luxury condo in CBD is going to be selling for the price as a 30 SQM condo in the Ladphao suburb. Currently you can find small condos for sale in the suburbs for 2 million baht. So in some ways your statement is already true. If the economy crashes real estate is a real asset and typically retains its value relative to stocks and other liquid assets. Finally if the currency crashes then it will take more baht to buy the same property hence forcing the price up. I understand housing market crashes,. But I have yet to see any housings crashes globally which have not recovered in 5 to 10 years.
@@geraldenright9845 Just dreaming man !! love to see (again) 72baths for 1 £ !! lol !! Actually a small flat renovated in LADPHROA can be 589 900 BATHS , 34 squater meter not square foot ; lol !!
Would be great to get an update for mid 2022, thanks Gerald 🙏🏼
Yeah, I've be on an extended hiatus. I need to get back into it. Things are starting to move.
Hi Gerald, I agree with Life Slices, great analysis of the influences affecting Thailand's property market. Btw, your videos are getting better and better.
Thanks for the feedback. I always feel so awkward making these videos, but its all worthwhile when I get positive feedback like this. Thanks again 😊
Great analysis. Thank you for sharing!
You're more than welcome. I'm happy to share my thoughts with the community.
You mentioned in your vid (this one or another) that it is possible to purchase without having to be in Thailand physically. Can you say more about that, or where I can find more information on what that all entails?
I may need your consultation soon, I will definitely keep watching your channel, thank you.
Glad to be of service. You will find my contact information in each video description.
Your videos are very instructive and interesting. I'm currently in Bangkok and I'm about to try to become a freelance real estate agent (with the help of the asian.estate agency). I never did that job professionally before, only help some friends for find some nice place to rent. I don't know if I will be able to do it but anyway your videos are really great for helping me understand how to do things.
My office has over 20 agents. You are welcome to join us one day. 🙂
Any changes owing the land your house is on.
Only vague rumours about proposals to cabinet, but no moves for legislation that I've heard about.
I appreciate you analysis, thanks. How does this correlate with the high personal debt ratio which is pretty high right now in Thailand? Many real estate investors are heavily indebted and I can see so many empty condos in the city center. For me it feels like a bubble waiting to burst.
I don't see many indebted buyers, over half our buyers are cash buyers. I've been hearing about bubbles for years. If you ask me, 30% liquidation that we see now is a low as it going to go. It's only going to go up form here. I never understand all the doom and gloom about real estate market corrections. I have yet to seen a real estate market fail to recover after a correction. It may take time, but it will always recover. I've owned stocks that have gone to zero, I have never owned property that lost me even one cent as long as I am patient.
I am not an expert but attractive real estate items won't be much of a bargain(as you in different words suggested). I think the people that needs to sell are the people that could barely afford to buy at the time of purchase,
so what's available won't be of much interest to an investor or upgrader. Anyway that is what I felt looking at the market lately.
The personal economic situation pre-covid and now can be dramatically different. I don't think that you can safely assume that because they are liquidating now that they were financially stressed in the past. I personally bought quality investment property during covid. Few people are selling their primary residence, what we are seeing is second homes or investment properties being liquidated to create cash flow for the sellers.
@@geraldenright9845 one can stare and disturb flies from the dead animal , not the predator, show me some really good bargains in this bad moment if you can, I think you misunderstood my point.( and that is strange as by what you say in your video it seems to me that we are on the same wave length).
Senior vice president of Bank of Bangkok said in October 2020, that there was approximately 300,000 over supply of new unsold property. Condo's depreciate about 5% a year on average. People who have money in property in Thailand, are in for a massive hit. The Thai economy is down 20% of it's GDP currently. The Baht is now the worst performing currency in the ASEAN area according to Japanese Bank.
The Thai economy will get much worse, and property has not hit the bottom as far as prices are concerned. When the economy hits the deck, it will take many years, possibly as many as ten years to turn around. Anyone who has money in Thai property will be lucky to see it again.
Buy low, sell high. Fortunes are made from low points in economies. I would not buy in any Western countries right now with prices at all time highs. I don't concur with your conclusion that anyone putting money in property in Thailand now would be "luck to see it again".
Is it possible to find condo in Bangkok 20k us dollar
Definitely not in the area I serve. Bangkok is a major global city and the prices reflect that fact. It's cheaper than Paris, London, Tokyo, Singapore, but not cheaper than rural USA. It's hard to get into the Bangkok CBD for less than 100K USD.
for those foreign investor brought small condo unit 2 yrs back with 15% deposit, what is your advice for them? to sell at lost if can? to do the completion as TOP now and wait till the market recovery a few years later and then sell?
That's a really difficult situation. It could really depend on each person's tolerance for loss as well as their financial resources to complete payment and wait for recovery. If you think you could recuperate the 15% on a different investment, I may be tempted to try to sell or just not complete. Cut your losses and come back when the market is picking up again. If, on the other hand, you are happy to complete and really don't need the money in the next couple of years, then maybe you just hold for better days, after all it is a real asset.
in 2022 and 2023 ANY bangkok condos will be at 1/2 million baths and maybe less in somme districts !!
Can you explain more on how you arrived at your conclusion of a upcoming condo prices?
I can't see how that could be. First and foremost,. Not all condos are the same size and,. at its core, real estate is a commodity hence the price is calculated by size of the property. There's no way a 400sqm luxury condo in CBD is going to be selling for the price as a 30 SQM condo in the Ladphao suburb. Currently you can find small condos for sale in the suburbs for 2 million baht. So in some ways your statement is already true. If the economy crashes real estate is a real asset and typically retains its value relative to stocks and other liquid assets. Finally if the currency crashes then it will take more baht to buy the same property hence forcing the price up.
I understand housing market crashes,. But I have yet to see any housings crashes globally which have not recovered in 5 to 10 years.
@@geraldenright9845 Just dreaming man !! love to see (again) 72baths for 1 £ !! lol !!
Actually a small flat renovated in LADPHROA can be 589 900 BATHS , 34 squater meter not square foot ; lol !!
Do you think prices will come down more in the next few months? I am buying in Hua Hin before April next year
I don't believe prices will decrease much more, However you may have a few more properties forced into the market as seller's wallets get squeezed.
@@geraldenright9845 Thanks, certainly a buyer's market.