When should you downgrade the Condo to HDB? Just before retirement? Do you buy the oldest HDB possible (>40yrs) or do you buy a younger HDB (~20yrs). I guess you want to downgrade from Condo when you no longer have an active income to service the loan, or that your capital appreciation already can fully pay up the HDB. But are there other reasons or criteria to do so?
There are many other factors in choosing the next home, in this case hdb. Such as better location? Much bigger size? Sometimes the push factor on the downgrade come ahead of retirement, never know 👌🏻
Informative video! Though 3.8% doesn't sound alot but I know friends who would blow away the 6k monthly if it is not for the mortgage payment. So putting it down for mortgage in a way is still a safe way to build wealth
hi thanks for the robust analysis. My only question is - should one use downpayment + interest paid+ other taxes and costs as the initial outlay ( denominator) instead of the purchase price? Because the buyer didn’t pay the full purchase price right? That way, the returns are higher than 3.8% for sure.
Hi. The 3.8%pa IRR is actually with loan of 1.5%, ie didnt pay full purchase price. Which means, if full purchase price, or if interest cost is higher. The returns are actually lower than 3.8%pa IRR
stop saying upgrade/downgrade, it's whatever you feel comfortable living in, the mindset of upgrade/downgrade sucks, leads to snobbery and mindless chasing for social status
Am I correct to say that for leasehold properties, the lease start date for private properties is from developers' land lease purchase date and not from TOP date, whereas for HDB, it starts from TOP?
@@joshconsultancy In that case, all private leasehold properties would be at lease 4-5 years old when buyers collect their keys, this their properties balance lease are not 99 years old. Maybe property adv should advertise balanced lease instead.
Thanks for the video! I am exactly at this cross road atm, bto MOP, should I "upgrade" (lol) to a resale condo for stay/investment for a few yrs before going back to resale hdb to take profit buffers. This is such a big headache as there is no way to predict the future, then it becomes a gamble... ;(
@@joshconsultancy should be good . Foreign funds buy in 3 banks since last Dec. While DJIA n Nasdaq plunge , STI still able 2 hold above 3420 ! Safer to hold on my OCBC till May's XD . As banks will benefit on 3-4 rate hike by FEDs this yr.
OMG I finally found a video that talks about this topic !! Especially the property market is at its highest now , should couples be looking out to buy now or buy later. Opportunity lost too. Please do the Bishan soon, can’t wait hahahaaa
no one wants to admit that with constant cooling measures come out from the government is almost impossible to make any significant gains from property investing.
Very good detail in explanation. Actually nowadays is pretty hard go make money from property. Putting up huge amount down-payment in property and refinance in long term. The amount of efforts seems too much for that 3.8% gain. Perhaps its better payout to put in reits.
REITS or not its a separate question because there are reits that underperformed but ya, usually the $380,000 (before cost gains) grabs our attention more than 3.8%pa gain
Had you put money in S&P500 ETF 5 years ago, it would have doubled. moral of the story, buy small flat, invest surplus cash in ETF, retire young and rich :)
Can you do another scenario that might be more applicable to mid income sgporeans. Sell HDB at MOP. Buy a 5 year old EC stay for 30 years. Or Buy a 20 year old EC/Private Condo. And ownstay for 30 years and downgrade after for retirement. How much risk are there.
actually the real IRR is even less as the actual owner bought it 2.153m. Also can I add my own opinion? Yes indeed, it doesn't sound very attractive when it is 3.8% but i think we must factor in the fact that the owner did stay there for 8 years. This means he managed to stay at a place for free and still make a profit out of it. I think thats not too shabby. Yes, the stock market may provide better returns on average but it also brings higher volatility (which many people will lose sleep over) and you cannot stay in your portfolio of stocks. I think property has its place as a low volatility investment that still brings reasonable returns for most people. :)
Which property you buy and timing you enter is important. Definitely agree not all property will make money therefore need to be very selective. However if u buy to stay and after few years you can still make money when u sell it does give you that intangible benefits compare to stocks n other investment which don’t give u that intangible benefits at all.
agree. Im ok w paying and staying in good properties if its financially comfortable. The pitch im targeting is this concept of stretching to the max and hopefully downgrade in future...
The most important thing is timing , especially in Singapore property market . If someone bought in 2013 ,It is very likely that it will not be returned utill today.
Agree with you, if you factor in all the hidden and interest costs, property is actually an overrated investment as compared to other investment such as stocks etc.
Well said and very helpful calculations. I'm wondering your input on how similar is this points of data when extrapolated to buying an EC unit in 2022. In your opinion, are EC's good buys for first home stays when considering few push/pull factors like 1) The high prices now, 2) governement cooling measures, 3) pandemic/war. Cheers!
The discount rate used to compute NPV here is derived from the 5y SGS or T-Bill? What are your thoughts on FH condos instead of LH in district 3? Taking Twin Regency or Regency Suites as example? Thanks
@@joshconsultancy though the mortgage servicing and cost of maintainable is significant, I do tink that Pte ppty owners have more leeway to milk the apartment without restrictions, relative to public housing. Again, as u alluded that it comes with holding power.
If you want to compare against equity returns, you should include rental yield to calculate the property returns too. Or, to assume that a person rents and invests the remaining on equity.
@@joshconsultancy when you mentioned that the return is 3.8% pa and that it is not much, a viewer might just compare that percentage directly with equity returns. Just trying to point out that this is not the full story.
@DonYang73 highly likely. Snp500 lifetime annualised returns arnd 10%. If u get lucky with property. 9+% or 10% possible but need to rent out. My current one rcr 2b2b. 5yrs old liao. Only give 7% return annualised (counted fr lease start date). Time weighted maybe more la simce prog payment
Nice video. A topic that is close to many Singaporeans' heart! Those two points are typically the selling pitch of agents. Never ask a barber if you should cut hair.
Great analysis as always. I came to a similar conclusion with my own analysis as well; I would be really happy to just "break-even", if compared to a continue staying in HDB scenario. Besides the opportunity cost (cost of the money) of paying the condo mortgage and maintenance fees, I also factored in inflation. Another thing that is to consider is can we extrapolate to price of HDB when you want to switch back eventually, since BTO is not an option. But then again like you said, a home is something very close to the heart. The aspects of feeling good, having facilities for yourself and kids, the vicinities, is hard to put a number to it. Some agents that I spoke to tells me it's all about the timing. I think there is some truth to it when you look retrospectively, but who can predict really? Does the agent pay for the loses if the predictions were wrong (they don't, they always earn). So, there the conflict of interest with agents will remain.
Agree with your points CP. Timing part yes it impacts. My best guess on timing is when its starting to move in 2017 and not when it has moved for a prolonged period already like 2022
2013 was a peak of our Property market, that's why TDSR implemented in 2013. After TDSR implemented many new condo near to MRT price dropped or stay stagnant for few years. (Why? because without TDSR, Developer selling at very high profit margin especially for the City fringe condo near MRT, buyer willing to pay because of the MRT and location) To have a clearer picture, also need to study about some resale condo bought in 2011-2013. Compare with the price today. also study about new condo bought in 2011-2013 that NOT near MRT at suburban area. compare with the price today. After Study about this 3 types of Property, u will see the differences in price trend. What about the Project launch in 2015-2016 after TDSR and ABSD implemented?
im waiting for a crash. ive waited and waited and waited. u think interest rates mortgage will go back to 4%? im hoping for 10 percent. owner of a 1.25 mil mortgage. with annual income of 450k. i really cannot stomach the terrible returns. the problem is the big crash in 2008 only reduced by 10%
are you able to do an analysis of dual key condo whether it is viable to purchase (with studio apartment rented out) as compared to standalone unit for homestay purpose only? thanks
Interesting but will have many variables. Do you happen to have some spacs or seen a presentation on it vs a different size you are keen on. If you have email to joshtantap@gmail.com
This is an interesting video and very well done. That being said, selling a HDB to buy a condo is not only a dollars and cents situation. Even if the end point financially is hypothetically the same (to ultimately stay in a 4 room HDB) to stay put in the HDB vs buying a condo and then downgrade, however, one of the biggest plus point of upgrading is a change of environment for the family to stay in a condo with the ability to enjoy facilities and these experiences cannot be bought or exchanged by dollars and cents. While there is always risks and other factors in buying a property, however, all things being equal with same end point or outcome,, it still makes sense to upgrade to a condo and then downgrade.
As long as the upgrade does not strain finances, I'm all for it. Agree on the change of environment part fully. I was targeting and presenting with data against the assumption (also put out by some marketing messages) that upgrading and then downgrading will be financially rewarding.
@@joshconsultancy I see what you were trying to address as if it was a sure-win by those marketing people. Yes, there is no such thing as a sure-win formula. Hence if anyone is going into upgrading just for the purpose of the financials, then maybe the person is upgrading for the wrong reason. The first and foremost objective should be to give a better living environment to the family and everything else should be a bonus. It's good that you put out the video as it will be relevant to those who are only going in for the money.
I don't get your analysis. Maybe you should compare to the Redhill hdbs(maybe they lost money- i think u did one sometime back in the Redhill area as well with mixed gains/losses) nearby in the same period and thus conclude if Echelon is the better in the same period. I also agree that private condos have distinctive advantages such as having very good schools nearby within 1km yet no HDB competition around. Echelon isn't one of those.
Is actually "virtual" gains ^_^ ownself make ownself happy nia. Actually plus all the reno cost, maintainence costs, property taxes, management fees etc...plus all the goodies govt give for HDB citizens, Condo dwellers already lose out a lot.
you forgot to mention when private property value goes up, HDB value goes up as well there is also a 30 month wait time after dispose all properties (overseas and local) before you can buy or apply for HDB. so 30 month rental also has to be added to your cost.
Hi "there is also a 30 month wait time after dispose all properties (overseas and local) before you can buy or apply for HDB" this not correct imo. Ive seen cases, there is no waiting period. Any agents here with experience do chime in for all to clarify, thanks in advance
@@joshconsultancy if you buy directly from government, then u need to wait 30 months. But if u buy from Resale market without any grants, then u don't need to wait 30 months.
i think should also factor in the "gain" from staying at a nice property at a nice location for a number of years and still make it out with profits...i already concluded a few years back that you cant get much returns from property...all the gains are all sucked into the property taxes, agent fees, mortgage interest, etc which is easily up to 10%...so the gain is there just that it goes mostly to the government ...i suspect going forward it will be the same....property will appreciate in a controlled slow rate...it will never grow at a fast enough rate for anyone to make big gains...cooling measure will come the moment the market is hot....so don't put all your money into property its not worth it...just buy a property you can comfortably afford...
Have you considered reviewing Golden Goose Property where they encourage purchase of UK properties in rather dilapidated areas, renovate and rent. Low purchase price, zero to low stamp duties and high rental returns? Sounds enticing
In future with population & birth decline... would be difficult to sell to someone else younger...demand is likely to fall with over-supply built-up over the years... Condo prices may have to be marked down, when finally decide to sell, thinking to take profit (capital gains), which would be non-existent by then lol !
valid points but you also need to appreciate that the person staying in it is also deriving value or extracting benefits from the condo so shouldnt just look at purely from investment return perspective.. there are intangible gains as well.
But I guess his point is for pure property investors then this strategy is not really an impressive investment compared to other investment returns with similar risks
Title is "..good idea to buy condo and downgrade in future", I kept the focus there. But yes intangible benefits, as long as monthly amounts are comfortable, in staying there is true
Have you considered reviewing property investment in UK by Golden Goose Property. Discourages Singapore property but UK has lower entry cost and higher rental returns. Appears enticing with lower starting investment sums at about 150 -250k
Not familiar with it. Personally Im reluctant to look overseas as managing a tenant is hard and understanding law is tiring. Much rather buy firms which invest overseas properties (non residential) such as Ho Bee
9, 13, 14, 16, 18, 28 & 10....looks familiar? Even if they got 6 out of 7...honestly, they can't afford to purchase a unit @ the Echelon. (I can't pronounce, I can't afford, I don't buy.) 😄😄😄😄...plus, 2022, might see 5 to 6 rate hikes. Interest rate go up, banks NIM go up, OCBC (O39) goes up! TP $16.00. BUY!!!!!
Great video, especially with assumptions and factors agent dun breakdown so transparently if u yourself are not aware 😂 I’m surprised the psf for that property in 2013 was that high and only rise so little over these years. Look forward to your upcoming video & hope to hear your perspective in the amount of growth if the psf has already hit $1.7k/psf
Jai Hinduja. Enjoy your passive income in your retirement. Only a few can achieve minister paycheck. So must slog like mad in your second or third Grab jobs to Buy big now and obviate paying more additional additional stamp duties later.
The comparison must have enough time period for a full property cycle. Buying and downgrade within 8 years may not see the needed capital gain especially we are in many years of property curbs. Secondly, not clear in the video, did you split out the principal repayment from the actual interest cost when we do monthly repayment to count the final profit. Finally, there is leverage factor so there is dependency on how much cash we actually injected vs loan to compute IRR which itself may not be meaningful since the absolute profit could be case. Lastly, should we include the loan cost attached to a 4 rm HDB if one has purchase it instead of condo to compute the final profit when you downgrade.
principal and actual interest yes was split. Leverage factor at close to 75% to yield 3.8%pa. If it was lesser leverage the yield is worse. Hope it clarifies and ya 8-9years not very long i agree. But on the ground there are ads suggesting the optimal lifespan of property is very short 🤷♂️
Hi Josh, I believe many couples in Singapore are using CPF to pay for their Property investment. I think it is a big component we have to think about. If we calculate the CPF accrued interest loss at 2.5%p.a then many property investment is actually really terrrible investment. Keen to hear your thoughts. Thank you
Accrued interest is NOT a loss. Its an opportunity cost to repay if sell house. This sharing has useful insides for you Chuan De SHOULD I USE CPF TO PAY FOR HOUSE OR USE CASH? th-cam.com/video/Zg-mVa-7bdI/w-d-xo.html
Great presentation, fully supported by your research and stats! I studied and done my sums few years back and had the same conclusion as yours. Hence, it is really amazing how a distorted picture the outside world is painting and majority still either blind-sided or brain-washed by the "property sure make" mindset.
Great video! 👍🏻 I would like to point out, just like other investments, there are also investment with poor rate or return. Same for properties, there are properties out there with net net ROR of 10% or more. So do your studies well for whatever investment. The fundamental remains pretty similar, entry point, holding power, exit strategy. looking forward to your next video! Thanks and have a nice day everyone. 😁😁
Excellent video and analysis.
Thank you for the high praise. Stay tuned. Upcoming soon - Will interest rate spike cause a property crash?
Thanks! I just learnt of your channel. I like the analysis. Can you included levered and unleavened gains in your analysis?
Levered will generally will look better but that’s in interest rate 1.5% times. Now it’s 4%. We need to consider what’s moving forward
Perhaps can change and be honest with the statement. Personal opinion. Changing from Condo to 4rms HDB flat is not downgrade. :)
Hmm? If 4rm HDB to condo is an upgrade, the converse is true?
Your video is very informative and of high quality. Thanks a lot.
Glad it was helpful! Cya around
@@joshconsultancy Cya. =)
Dam good topic again
When should you downgrade the Condo to HDB? Just before retirement? Do you buy the oldest HDB possible (>40yrs) or do you buy a younger HDB (~20yrs). I guess you want to downgrade from Condo when you no longer have an active income to service the loan, or that your capital appreciation already can fully pay up the HDB. But are there other reasons or criteria to do so?
There are many other factors in choosing the next home, in this case hdb. Such as better location? Much bigger size?
Sometimes the push factor on the downgrade come ahead of retirement, never know 👌🏻
your content is excellent, helping u smash the like button!
Much appreciated! Share with a friend who should hear the points too!
Provided one can sell at a huge profit
Informative video! Though 3.8% doesn't sound alot but I know friends who would blow away the 6k monthly if it is not for the mortgage payment. So putting it down for mortgage in a way is still a safe way to build wealth
great videos josh! very informative
no probs share with someone who can benefit from some of the ideas presented
Good case study. Pls continue to show lore
This analysis is so informative and objective. Thank you!!
Glad it was helpful! Share with someone who should hear it too =)
Excellent video and topic! I have always enjoyed all your videos! Good stuff!
thanks, share with a friend who can benefit from some of the points raised =)
hi thanks for the robust analysis. My only question is - should one use downpayment + interest paid+ other taxes and costs as the initial outlay ( denominator) instead of the purchase price? Because the buyer didn’t pay the full purchase price right? That way, the returns are higher than 3.8% for sure.
Hi. The 3.8%pa IRR is actually with loan of 1.5%, ie didnt pay full purchase price.
Which means, if full purchase price, or if interest cost is higher. The returns are actually lower than 3.8%pa IRR
stop saying upgrade/downgrade, it's whatever you feel comfortable living in, the mindset of upgrade/downgrade sucks, leads to snobbery and mindless chasing for social status
#yaawy
Am I correct to say that for leasehold properties, the lease start date for private properties is from developers' land lease purchase date and not from TOP date, whereas for HDB, it starts from TOP?
Yes thats my understanding too
@@joshconsultancy In that case, all private leasehold properties would be at lease 4-5 years old when buyers collect their keys, this their properties balance lease are not 99 years old. Maybe property adv should advertise balanced lease instead.
Thanks for the video! I am exactly at this cross road atm, bto MOP, should I "upgrade" (lol) to a resale condo for stay/investment for a few yrs before going back to resale hdb to take profit buffers. This is such a big headache as there is no way to predict the future, then it becomes a gamble... ;(
Ah! then I answered your question =P
@@joshconsultancy u did and u confirmed my conclusion as well, fantastic
I like what Mr. Loo from 1m65 mention. Going into condo from hdb is not an upgrade. It's a trade off
I guess that's why you put"upgrade" with "" . :)
6k monthly repayment, you better like your job and more importantly LOVE your boss.
hard to hear but true haha
So whts the short answer? Good idea or not a good idea? 😅
It depends but leaning more to not good idea mostly. What are your thoughts?
Well done ,Boss ! Spent so much time on your data collection n presentation . Thanks ! Next week , u can prepare review on DBS n UOB 's Q4 result .
Better be good numbers man haha. Cya around vincent
@@joshconsultancy should be good . Foreign funds buy in 3 banks since last Dec. While DJIA n Nasdaq plunge , STI still able 2 hold above 3420 ! Safer to hold on my OCBC till May's XD . As banks will benefit on 3-4 rate hike by FEDs this yr.
OMG I finally found a video that talks about this topic !! Especially the property market is at its highest now , should couples be looking out to buy now or buy later. Opportunity lost too. Please do the Bishan soon, can’t wait hahahaaa
Glad it was helpful! Share with someone who should see too =)
I think it you include maintenance cost and agent fees when selling and misc fee which includes renovation. Then we get a better idea on the returns
Yup, the numbers could be marked down further
@@joshconsultancy ya. Much lesser than 3.8% pa. agent fee is 2% for selling which is around 50k.
If taking into consideration initial capital paid ( power of leverage ) and the 8 years worth of rental income … the return is not too bad ..
Home stay, no rental income factored. Power of leverage already factored into calculations
no one wants to admit that with constant cooling measures come out from the government is almost impossible to make any significant gains from property investing.
Very good detail in explanation. Actually nowadays is pretty hard go make money from property. Putting up huge amount down-payment in property and refinance in long term. The amount of efforts seems too much for that 3.8% gain.
Perhaps its better payout to put in reits.
I have the exact same conclusion after much consideration. ROR is just not ideal at the current situation.
REITS or not its a separate question because there are reits that underperformed but ya, usually the $380,000 (before cost gains) grabs our attention more than 3.8%pa gain
Had you put money in S&P500 ETF 5 years ago, it would have doubled.
moral of the story, buy small flat, invest surplus cash in ETF, retire young and rich :)
Can you do another scenario that might be more applicable to mid income sgporeans. Sell HDB at MOP. Buy a 5 year old EC stay for 30 years. Or Buy a 20 year old EC/Private Condo. And ownstay for 30 years and downgrade after for retirement. How much risk are there.
Sell at MOP definitely gain. Its the second leg of buy 20yo condo that is uncertain
actually the real IRR is even less as the actual owner bought it 2.153m. Also can I add my own opinion? Yes indeed, it doesn't sound very attractive when it is 3.8% but i think we must factor in the fact that the owner did stay there for 8 years. This means he managed to stay at a place for free and still make a profit out of it. I think thats not too shabby.
Yes, the stock market may provide better returns on average but it also brings higher volatility (which many people will lose sleep over) and you cannot stay in your portfolio of stocks.
I think property has its place as a low volatility investment that still brings reasonable returns for most people. :)
I never upsized my life bought a studio apartment and now I have money for a house but dont feel the need for a bigger place unless I get kids
Buy according to what you can afford and feel comfortable deep down. Dont look back thereafter. Everything else is hindsight.
Which property you buy and timing you enter is important. Definitely agree not all property will make money therefore need to be very selective. However if u buy to stay and after few years you can still make money when u sell it does give you that intangible benefits compare to stocks n other investment which don’t give u that intangible benefits at all.
agree. Im ok w paying and staying in good properties if its financially comfortable. The pitch im targeting is this concept of stretching to the max and hopefully downgrade in future...
The most important thing is timing , especially in Singapore property market . If someone bought in 2013 ,It is very likely that it will not be returned utill today.
Yes timing is one of the learning points raised from this case study.
Bto are the probably the only exception to timing risk
@@joshconsultancy likely I bought my first condo in mid 2017，Till now more than 400k sgd appreciat.
Agree with you, if you factor in all the hidden and interest costs, property is actually an overrated investment as compared to other investment such as stocks etc.
Yes. Possibly overrated when we focus on the quantum gain and not the % gain. Share with someone and cya around
Housing investment is so inflexible yet not attractive. Great video josh
Not that all are not attractive, the cycle matters and it is not a guaranteed gain. Thats the key point =)
Nicely done.
Well said and very helpful calculations. I'm wondering your input on how similar is this points of data when extrapolated to buying an EC unit in 2022. In your opinion, are EC's good buys for first home stays when considering few push/pull factors like 1) The high prices now, 2) governement cooling measures, 3) pandemic/war. Cheers!
EC bought from launch at built up is almost a sure bet gain from the case studies ive seen
Not forgetting HDB resale price went up significantly over the recent years - prices up 3.2% in Q4 2021.
If im not wrong HDB prices were also flat in 2015,2016,2017
The discount rate used to compute NPV here is derived from the 5y SGS or T-Bill?
What are your thoughts on FH condos instead of LH in district 3? Taking Twin Regency or Regency Suites as example?
Thanks
Not npv calculation. iRR
@@joshconsultancy though the mortgage servicing and cost of maintainable is significant, I do tink that Pte ppty owners have more leeway to milk the apartment without restrictions, relative to public housing.
Again, as u alluded that it comes with holding power.
J Tan btw 1M65 strategy more practical than inv pro in my opinion
This sharing might interest you HOW YOU CAN USE 1M65 AND ALTERNATIVE TO BUILDING WEALTH THAT YOU MUST SEE! th-cam.com/video/aliBqbHUKb4/w-d-xo.html
If you want to compare against equity returns, you should include rental yield to calculate the property returns too. Or, to assume that a person rents and invests the remaining on equity.
there was no comparison with equity presented. Title is "..good idea to buy condo and downgrade in future"
Even if there was a comparison with equities, equities would totally out profit property, dollar for dollar lah.
@@joshconsultancy when you mentioned that the return is 3.8% pa and that it is not much, a viewer might just compare that percentage directly with equity returns. Just trying to point out that this is not the full story.
@DonYang73 highly likely. Snp500 lifetime annualised returns arnd 10%. If u get lucky with property. 9+% or 10% possible but need to rent out.
My current one rcr 2b2b. 5yrs old liao. Only give 7% return annualised (counted fr lease start date). Time weighted maybe more la simce prog payment
J Tan May be can do a case study for echelon 2 rm inv property. Thanks
yes its towards end of video
Nice video. A topic that is close to many Singaporeans' heart! Those two points are typically the selling pitch of agents. Never ask a barber if you should cut hair.
Haven’t add in selling agent fees and money spent on renovation.
J Tan I got first hand experience bot echelon in 2012 top 2016 and sold 2021
Oh so my numbers correct?
Echelon is a very nice condo!! Outstanding architecture, ample facilities and near to MRT.
haha =)
Great analysis as always. I came to a similar conclusion with my own analysis as well; I would be really happy to just "break-even", if compared to a continue staying in HDB scenario. Besides the opportunity cost (cost of the money) of paying the condo mortgage and maintenance fees, I also factored in inflation. Another thing that is to consider is can we extrapolate to price of HDB when you want to switch back eventually, since BTO is not an option. But then again like you said, a home is something very close to the heart. The aspects of feeling good, having facilities for yourself and kids, the vicinities, is hard to put a number to it.
Some agents that I spoke to tells me it's all about the timing. I think there is some truth to it when you look retrospectively, but who can predict really? Does the agent pay for the loses if the predictions were wrong (they don't, they always earn). So, there the conflict of interest with agents will remain.
Agree with your points CP. Timing part yes it impacts. My best guess on timing is when its starting to move in 2017 and not when it has moved for a prolonged period already like 2022
2013 was a peak of our Property market, that's why TDSR implemented in 2013.
After TDSR implemented many new condo near to MRT price dropped or stay stagnant for few years. (Why? because without TDSR, Developer selling at very high profit margin especially for the City fringe condo near MRT, buyer willing to pay because of the MRT and location)
To have a clearer picture, also need to study about some resale condo bought in 2011-2013. Compare with the price today.
also study about new condo bought in 2011-2013 that NOT near MRT at suburban area.
compare with the price today.
After Study about this 3 types of Property, u will see the differences in price trend.
What about the Project launch in 2015-2016 after TDSR and ABSD implemented?
This is such amazing content.
Generally if someone is keen on upgrading from HDB to a large condo, are new launches almost always the way to go?
thanks, share with anyone who should hear too =). New launches tend to be priced high in PSF. It is my view that resale market may have gems
im waiting for a crash. ive waited and waited and waited. u think interest rates mortgage will go back to 4%? im hoping for 10 percent. owner of a 1.25 mil mortgage. with annual income of 450k. i really cannot stomach the terrible returns.
the problem is the big crash in 2008 only reduced by 10%
4% is very unlikely already imo
Need also factor in Renovation costs, agents selling comm (2% + gst) & also higher maintenance fees etc.
are you able to do an analysis of dual key condo whether it is viable to purchase (with studio apartment rented out) as compared to standalone unit for homestay purpose only? thanks
Interesting but will have many variables. Do you happen to have some spacs or seen a presentation on it vs a different size you are keen on. If you have email to joshtantap@gmail.com
This is an interesting video and very well done.
That being said, selling a HDB to buy a condo is not only a dollars and cents situation. Even if the end point financially is hypothetically the same (to ultimately stay in a 4 room HDB) to stay put in the HDB vs buying a condo and then downgrade, however, one of the biggest plus point of upgrading is a change of environment for the family to stay in a condo with the ability to enjoy facilities and these experiences cannot be bought or exchanged by dollars and cents.
While there is always risks and other factors in buying a property, however, all things being equal with same end point or outcome,, it still makes sense to upgrade to a condo and then downgrade.
As long as the upgrade does not strain finances, I'm all for it. Agree on the change of environment part fully. I was targeting and presenting with data against the assumption (also put out by some marketing messages) that upgrading and then downgrading will be financially rewarding.
@@joshconsultancy I see what you were trying to address as if it was a sure-win by those marketing people. Yes, there is no such thing as a sure-win formula. Hence if anyone is going into upgrading just for the purpose of the financials, then maybe the person is upgrading for the wrong reason. The first and foremost objective should be to give a better living environment to the family and everything else should be a bonus.
It's good that you put out the video as it will be relevant to those who are only going in for the money.
🤦
I don't get your analysis. Maybe you should compare to the Redhill hdbs(maybe they lost money- i think u did one sometime back in the Redhill area as well with mixed gains/losses) nearby in the same period and thus conclude if Echelon is the better in the same period.
I also agree that private condos have distinctive advantages such as having very good schools nearby within 1km yet no HDB competition around. Echelon isn't one of those.
J Tan got to add 2% commission when unit was sold
Is actually "virtual" gains ^_^ ownself make ownself happy nia. Actually plus all the reno cost, maintainence costs, property taxes, management fees etc...plus all the goodies govt give for HDB citizens, Condo dwellers already lose out a lot.
It’s true, ongoing cost is higher. Personal choice. Main stance as long as doesn’t strain family budgets :)
you forgot to mention
when private property value goes up, HDB value goes up as well
there is also a 30 month wait time after dispose all properties (overseas and local) before you can buy or apply for HDB. so 30 month rental also has to be added to your cost.
Hi "there is also a 30 month wait time after dispose all properties (overseas and local) before you can buy or apply for HDB" this not correct imo. Ive seen cases, there is no waiting period. Any agents here with experience do chime in for all to clarify, thanks in advance
@@joshconsultancy if you buy directly from government, then u need to wait 30 months. But if u buy from Resale market without any grants, then u don't need to wait 30 months.
You did not include Seller Stamp Duty and Property Agent Commission for selling the property. Optional item is simple renovation cost.
SSD applies only for 3y. But ya agent comm may apply
@@joshconsultancy oh yea, you're right on SSD.
Buy house = dead trap. Buy food you don’t get hungry . Cheers
haha maybe not so extreme la. House is for life =), pay for a good one within budget
That's a funny quote. Love it
Great video. Appreciate the 'heavy lifting'. Perhaps too many have a simplistic view (buy for 2.1m, sell for 2.45 = 350K profit!) 😅
Yes thats a finding that id like to reiterate
Too much effort for 3.8%.
Buy reits sua
I did a comparison and analysis last yr and got pretty similar output too
i think should also factor in the "gain" from staying at a nice property at a nice location for a number of years and still make it out with profits...i already concluded a few years back that you cant get much returns from property...all the gains are all sucked into the property taxes, agent fees, mortgage interest, etc which is easily up to 10%...so the gain is there just that it goes mostly to the government ...i suspect going forward it will be the same....property will appreciate in a controlled slow rate...it will never grow at a fast enough rate for anyone to make big gains...cooling measure will come the moment the market is hot....so don't put all your money into property its not worth it...just buy a property you can comfortably afford...
Have you considered reviewing Golden Goose Property where they encourage purchase of UK properties in rather dilapidated areas, renovate and rent. Low purchase price, zero to low stamp duties and high rental returns? Sounds enticing
SSD during that period is 4 years, so owners don’t sell after 3 years. Good Analysis though.
In future with population & birth decline... would be difficult to sell to someone else younger...demand is likely to fall with over-supply built-up over the years... Condo prices may have to be marked down, when finally decide to sell, thinking to take profit (capital gains), which would be non-existent by then lol !
IDK. could that be overly pessimistic?
valid points but you also need to appreciate that the person staying in it is also deriving value or extracting benefits from the condo so shouldnt just look at purely from investment return perspective.. there are intangible gains as well.
But I guess his point is for pure property investors then this strategy is not really an impressive investment compared to other investment returns with similar risks
Title is "..good idea to buy condo and downgrade in future", I kept the focus there. But yes intangible benefits, as long as monthly amounts are comfortable, in staying there is true
Have you considered reviewing property investment in UK by Golden Goose Property. Discourages Singapore property but UK has lower entry cost and higher rental returns. Appears enticing with lower starting investment sums at about 150 -250k
Not familiar with it. Personally Im reluctant to look overseas as managing a tenant is hard and understanding law is tiring. Much rather buy firms which invest overseas properties (non residential) such as Ho Bee
Good information. Can you make video on tax? Like first tier tax , second tier tax
Thanks
9, 13, 14, 16, 18, 28 & 10....looks familiar? Even if they got 6 out of 7...honestly, they can't afford to purchase a unit @ the Echelon. (I can't pronounce, I can't afford, I don't buy.) 😄😄😄😄...plus, 2022, might see 5 to 6 rate hikes. Interest rate go up, banks NIM go up, OCBC (O39) goes up! TP $16.00. BUY!!!!!
I think i mispronounced too haha
Great video, especially with assumptions and factors agent dun breakdown so transparently if u yourself are not aware 😂
I’m surprised the psf for that property in 2013 was that high and only rise so little over these years. Look forward to your upcoming video & hope to hear your perspective in the amount of growth if the psf has already hit $1.7k/psf
Thanks vincent. Yes market cycle part is very important
Cost of borrowing is going up up and up.
Jai Hinduja. Enjoy your passive income in your retirement. Only a few can achieve minister paycheck. So must slog like mad in your second or third Grab jobs to Buy big now and obviate paying more additional additional stamp duties later.
whats Jai hinduja?
The comparison must have enough time period for a full property cycle. Buying and downgrade within 8 years may not see the needed capital gain especially we are in many years of property curbs. Secondly, not clear in the video, did you split out the principal repayment from the actual interest cost when we do monthly repayment to count the final profit. Finally, there is leverage factor so there is dependency on how much cash we actually injected vs loan to compute IRR which itself may not be meaningful since the absolute profit could be case. Lastly, should we include the loan cost attached to a 4 rm HDB if one has purchase it instead of condo to compute the final profit when you downgrade.
principal and actual interest yes was split. Leverage factor at close to 75% to yield 3.8%pa. If it was lesser leverage the yield is worse. Hope it clarifies and ya 8-9years not very long i agree. But on the ground there are ads suggesting the optimal lifespan of property is very short 🤷♂️
Hi Josh,
I believe many couples in Singapore are using CPF to pay for their Property investment. I think it is a big component we have to think about. If we calculate the CPF accrued interest loss at 2.5%p.a then many property investment is actually really terrrible investment. Keen to hear your thoughts. Thank you
Accrued interest is NOT a loss. Its an opportunity cost to repay if sell house. This sharing has useful insides for you Chuan De SHOULD I USE CPF TO PAY FOR HOUSE OR USE CASH? th-cam.com/video/Zg-mVa-7bdI/w-d-xo.html
@@joshconsultancy Tks Josh
Does the calculation takes into account of monthly maintenance fees?
Doesnt. And doesnt factor in NEXT Bsd too. So net figures could be lower even
Great presentation, fully supported by your research and stats! I studied and done my sums few years back and had the same conclusion as yours. Hence, it is really amazing how a distorted picture the outside world is painting and majority still either blind-sided or brain-washed by the "property sure make" mindset.
Glad it was helpful! Share with someone who should see too
Great video! 👍🏻
I would like to point out, just like other investments, there are also investment with poor rate or return.
Same for properties, there are properties out there with net net ROR of 10% or more. So do your studies well for whatever investment.
The fundamental remains pretty similar, entry point, holding power, exit strategy.
looking forward to your next video! Thanks and have a nice day everyone. 😁😁