⏩You will REGRET Buying A House in 2023 - th-cam.com/video/adPB28R7fNc/w-d-xo.html ⏩Why You'll REGRET Getting A Mortgage In 2024 - th-cam.com/video/i-CIa3yK2C4/w-d-xo.html ⏩Why You'll REGRET Getting A Mortgage In 2024 - th-cam.com/video/i-CIa3yK2C4/w-d-xo.html ✅ - Work Directly with My Team (Mortgage and Real Estate Nationwide) - www.jebsmith.net/referral
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with 'Grace Adams Cook' for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
That’s the heart of the issue, if people could afford to buy they would because unless it’s an investment property, your home and the location of it largely determines your lifestyle, so there is a huge emotional component to buying a house.
I agree, most people are priced out. If they realistically try to buy a home and only use 25% of their income on a home. It's very rare to find a buyer who bought a home the last 4 years and only spend 25% or less on housing. Most lenders want your money and will be like "you qualify" while using a dti that's outrageous 40-60% just for the M/I/T/PMI, maintain etc.
I’m in Los Angeles, I went to 6 open houses yesterday, no buyers like 2 years ago, I saw price cuts and desperate sellers, the only problem I see is starving realtors, time is on buyers side
@@criticalthinker9829 as an ex real estate proffesional from 05-19 and dealing specifically in metro Los Angeles I can tell you from my prospective this is just the tip of the iceberg.. sellers are desperate because they missed the train, agents are starving, and inventory will continue to flood, anybody who bought during fomo and was hustled on the artificial Inflation is in for a storm.. I'll be ready to invest again next fall
Sounds like an agent crying for commissions... Please please please come back buy something, I beg you I can't pay my rent/mortgage! Why do you care if people are waiting or not? Are they living with you now??? It's their money and their choice! Everyone is a smart*** with a smart phone nowadays!
The majority of people giving this advice are realtors. The principles of supply and demand fall apart when the specific demographic of intended buyers is physically incapable of affording the homes intended for them. This has never happened in history, but we're on the brink. Also, not all areas are experiencing inventory shortages. Look at the current Philly market: an abundance of homes that have been sitting for months with regular price cuts and still few buyers. It's all investor sellers with a limited buyer audience. Can't wait to come back to this vid in two years...don't delete it when that happens 🙂
@@JebSmithwhere are there property taxes and insurance going to be on their "450k home that they bought in 2024 that's going to be worth 541k in 2028"? That's only 4 years JEB. Are home prices going to go up another 18%+ over the next 6 years after that? Or are you just talking out of your ass on TH-cam? Delete this whole channel, you're embarrassing yourself.
Whether it's the stock market or real estate, I find that trying to time the market is extremely exhausting. Just go in when you have the means and enjoy the long-term growth.
And that's why Wall Street always wins. They're playing the long game, while all the market buyers can't be patient for a couple years and wait for the market to come back because it's exhausting to wait.
Perhaps you should check out a chart of home prices over the last 60+ years overlaid with recessions. There's been 7 and home prices increased in all of them except one which was the cause for the recession to start.
@@JebSmith The US economy is dynamic, which means that historical data has limited value. Home prices have so far outstripped income that a correction is inevitable.
@@JebSmithin the long term, housing price will always go up in the big trend but buying a home while it’s on its short term spike is not a wise action especially if you can’t afford it. It’s not matter of a regret when some commodity is so far out of reach. What you are suggesting is like a Ferrari car sale man tries to sell a 3000 dollar monthly income person a car.
I live in Northern New Jersey. I waited over 2 years for the market to "crash". My house was listed for $789K. Listing agent received 11 offers. I wasn't even a consideration. Out of 11 offers there were only two cash offers; I being one of them. House fell through and they called me last minute. I still overpaid at $825K cash. Tax assessor just sent me a nice letter stating I will be accessed at a tax rate of 3 on a house he valued at $603K. He's also penalizing me with house renovation permits that were closed prior to my closing for an additional $4,500. My taxes will be over $22K. Folks, it's a shit show. The government wants you to own nothing. Oh, and I can't wait to pay estimated taxes on unrealized gains on my house and 401K if they succeed. The point of my comment; maybe I should have continued renting at $1,800 a month. The rent included cable, water, and utilities.
You bought in new jersey. 3 most in debt state in the nation. I'd get the F outa there. Queens NY here. I'm looking to bail from the region entirely. Not worth the taxes.
@@timothyandrewnielsen Former New Yorker. Yup, can pack fast enough to get the hell out of here. - I haven't settled into my house yet (1 month in) and most likely after talking with my attorney will have to put house back on the market. My concern now is someone not wanting to buy because of the high taxes. For clarification, it's not the assessment on the purchase of the house (I knew that was coming) that bothers me as much, it is the extra added property taxes because of renovations done to the house before I purchased it. Good luck to you.
I mean sure 4-5 years from now…but in the more immediate future I doubt it. People in 2022 who waited until now (depending on area ofc) ain’t regretting it. Prices in north Texas have decreased in many areas as much as 15-20%. The question ofc is what’s the bottom…when do they stop dropping because many are still sitting after 3-5 months.
@@JebSmith under normal circumstances I'd agree with you, but when housing jumped 175-200% in a 3 year window then the short term becomes an important factor. That wasn't normal and therefore the market will correct itself to some degree. Had I bought in the area I was looking at 2 years ago I would have purchased a house at 700k that is now selling under 600k. With margins so tight for many buyers right now considering what is happening in the short term may be their only option. Yes that now 600k house will go up in value over the next 5 years, but in the short term I would have lost about 100k value in that investiment had I not waited. And yes a few states may be more outliers than others like Texas (where I'm at) and Florida where there's a lot of inventory, so that's why I stress location is also an important factor.
It's partly seasonal and because rates are higher...........As rates come back down, demand is likely to pick up and prices will continue doing what they've done for the last 65+ years. The best time to buy is when the market has slowed like the market were in right now.
yeah this dudes wrong lol . houses been dropping in my town like crazy for over a year so its 100% not seasonal! a couple years ago there was like 10 houses for sale in my town now there's almost 300 and there all sitting for a long time. only ones that sell are ones with price reductions of 25+% ill wait another year or two so i can buy at 40-60% off...
You're crazy man. Look I've been on this channel since before 2021 and closed on my house in early 2021 when interest rates were at 2.5%. I'm glad I didn't wait because prices increased enough for us to purchase another property from the equity of the 2021 home. Jeb knows what he is talking about.
@@cthomas8993 2021 situation was different and was the right thing to do. Convincing someone tu buy in 2024 is not correct advice. How do you scare someone into buying? Scare them prices will rise in 2028 that's what Jeb is doing
I am with you all this gurus know nothing, old brain washed crap, the next 10 years going to be nothing like last 100, we going to world depression like never in human whole history, most people won’t make it, get ready while you can!!! So tell me guru now who the hell you going to sell the house that will go in price? The unemployed or homeless? Just saying
@@cthomas8993 that’s exactly what I did too. 2.75% interest rate and pulled a HILOC out this year and bought a second house. Jeb is realistic and goes based on data and analysis which is why it made sense for me at the time to listen to him. Real state is local. I’m in his region and listen.
@@ramanujpatro Jeb isn't scaring anybody into doing anything, he always prefaces "if" the time is right, he's not out here telling people to stretch themselves or cash in investments or borrow from retirement plans, the hard truth is there still isn't enough inventory in most places around the country, that will keep prices high and push them higher unless inventory improves drastically, here in California the state estimated that we were short 400K homes to meet demand, does that mean prices are going up 10-20% a year? Absolutely not, but it does mean prices won't collapse because the number of people who want to buy a home still outpaces the number of homes available. It's literally that simple.
Sorry but i disagree. Majority of Americans are absolutely priced out of the market. Theres no secret. Volume has been tremendously low. There are too many signs and indicators that a correction is needed. For prices to continue climbing up only means less and less activity
..Ditto for waiting to build a new house - because you THINK material costs will go down. THOSE "might", but labor costs are waayyy up! We are finishing construction on a home that cost us 35% more than when we budgeted it online - 2 years before! The contractor I had got the ridiculous bid from "advised" me to "wait until next winter; sub's(contractors) will have less work, their rates will drop.. WE ARE SO GLAD we didn't wait, but instead went to another contractor, sharpened the pencil, and did the most "labor effective" design we could.. Still high, but 30% lower than today's costs!! Don't wait. if you can afford to build!
@Katiecrypto-m3e I am giving you one example in Los Angeles that seller lost about $200 K selling their house which they purchased 2 years ago. 28304 Lorita Ln, Saugus, CA 91350
Next year when my rent lease is almost up I’m just gonna say screw it and look for condo. House prices in Utah are barely changing. Seeing quite a few condos go on the market some have dropped by more the 50k in the past 3 months.
There are definitely pockets in FL and TX where prices have come down……it’s probably not over yet. Know your market but picking the top or bottom is still a fools game. Buy when it’s right for you
I'm confused. I normally love your message, but this video seems more like a typical realtor telling people to buy now. Buyers can't buy what they can't afford. Inventory is increasing and days on market are increasing as well. Affordability is low and sales prices are out of whack in certain markets. While you cannot time the market, you should also not dive in foolishly because you are afraid of missing out on home ownership and potential equity. Sometimes renting is the better and more affordable solution. Uh, Hello, Jeb. FYI, in Florida short sales and foreclosures are increasing. Your advice seems more self-serving than helpful. While I personally don't believe that the market is going to crash, I do believe it's correcting itself post pandemic. Buyers need to find good realtors who think like investors and understand the local market and numbers. Secondly, arm yourself with a good loan officer who understands your situation, finances and also understands numbers and actually understands real estate (most loan officers don't). A good team will empower you to make good decisions that will help set you un in the future.
Housing is going to get more expensive with inflation, lack of supply (nationwide) which means it's going to cost more to own that home over time. It doesn't mean that you need to rush out and buy it today but you need to have a plan to either become a homeowner at some point or be investing your money wisely. As you know from my other videos, you have to buy when it's the right time in your life, that's always the right move rather than trying to predict what's coming next.
No, they won't. Prices are hugely inflated and we're not going to see 2.98% mortgages again in our lifetime. There needs to be a large correction. If not the market will run out of buyers. It's already happening.
This is one of the few videos that talks about the regret from waiting for a crash. I also know someone who waited in 2020 and was excited about getting a foreclosure. They’re still renting and are afraid of being priced out. They now have some urgency to buy. There’s so many “buyers remorse” videos out there and I believe people watch them to make themselves feel better about their own decisions that caused them to still be renting. Some people have really messed up and lost a lot of money when they decided to wait for a crash.
Most that I know that are waiting aren’t in a better position because they are investing well or stacking money but rather spending just as much as they previously were with nothing to show for while hoping for a crash
@@Dee0426 yea there is potential for saving cash if you're renting but it also leads to degraded quality of life living in some small apartment with kids.
Sort of bogus and it depends on what you were paying in rent. I'll do some rough math for you about my situation which is exactly what you touched on. I bring home $5000 a month after taxes and spend $1600 on rent. Wife makes about the same. So for easy math, let's say we bank $10k after taxes. If I buy a home in my area, it's an easy $800k. That's about a $4.5k a month mortgage. If I put $350k Down on an 800k home at 6% interest on a 30 year. The bank makes $520K over the course of that mortgage. If I keep renting, the yearly money lost on rent is $20k (for easy math). If we take on that mortgage, the yearly money lost to interest is $2200 until 14 years from the time you take on that mortgage (assuming you're not overpaying). In 14 years, at my current rate of saving ( ~6k a month) we would have saved 1 million dollars. At which point we could just buy the home outright. However, home values go up, so 1million may not be the same priced home. HOWEVER. All we need is the difference. Lets say in the time we save, home values go up another 100k. So that 800k home is 900k. So we need 900k - 350k = 550k. We could save that (550k) at our current rent rate, in 7.6 years and pay CASH. While renting, I would have lost about 150k to rent during that time. So while I could take out a mortgage, I could just save for 7-8 years then buy the home cash. Saving myself roughly 520k (interest paid to bank over course of mortgage ) MINUS 150k ( money lost renting ) = 430k. So just saving my money and waiting to buy cash (or extremely close to paying cash) I would save ~400k. 400k is a lot of money. It's insane to think taking out massive debt makes sense to anyone except your own greed because you "need" a home now. No you don't. Do the math.
@@timothyandrewnielsen your scenario works assuming 2 conditions are met, first you have to have a rental that is well below market rate and secondly, your family needs do not necessitate you buying a larger home than you are currently renting. We had a similar situation, we paid $900 rent on an 1100 sq ft house with a detached garage, large yard and pool... In Northern California! We were in the rental for 5 years and our rent only went up $150 a month from when we moved in to when we left. We were in the market since 2018 but we thought prices were way too high (they had been climbing steadily since 2015) and we though what goes up will surely come down so we kept stockpiling cash and investing until 2021 when our landlord sold the property. We had to buy in the midst of the Covid era craziness with little inventory and skyrocketing prices, long story short to rent a comparable house to what we were renting would cost us almost 3 times more than what we were paying in rent, and frankly we wanted a larger home anyway as our kids were getting older. Our options were rent at market rate which would severely cut our ability to save cash and invest with no guarantee that rents wouldn't rise further (they haven't they have only kept rising), use the savings we had accumulated to buy a home we could afford and fit into our monthly budget and fix our housing costs long term, if we didn't need a bigger house, and we could have stayed in the cheap rental for another 7-9 years we might have been able to buy a house cash but at that point what would be the point, my kids would be effectively out of the house and in school so buying a larger house wouldn't make much sense. Am I paying interest? Yes, but paying market rate rents would eventually strain my budget, when we bought 30% of our net income went to mortgage/taxes/insurance, today it's 25% so while it would have been nice to pay cash for the house, buying at 2.85% APR for 30 years is what best fit our budget given our circumstances.
The expected rate cuts weren't until 2024 and I believe the initial estimate was 3 rate cuts while the market was thinking 6, looks like we'll probably end up with around 4 cuts so pretty much in line with consensus. If you don't think prices are going to continue to go up (not astronomically but probably around 3% per year) then you must think they are going to be able to increase supply in a meaningful way nationwide which isn't going to happen overnight especially as most builders have put a hold on building until rates adjust.............That said, the lack of supply with continue to be the issue that keeps prices increasing along with a steady 2%+ inflation.
@@JebSmith yeah you can believe whatever you want, that doesn't make it true. Jerome Powell originally aimed for one rate cut a quarter in 2024 at around .2-.25 basis points each. I know you can do a little math there. There has literally been one significant rate cut and it was only a couple of months ago and rates have slowly but steadily climbed back since then. Where are you getting your information from exactly? Home prices have already fallen by a pretty significant percentage in a number of states. Are you seriously going to sit here and argue that isn't true? People like you who create these channels and all of these cuck realtors on Instagram etc are the reason we're in this position and I genuinely feel bad for first time homebuyers who are getting pulled in the wrong direction with seriously ill advised advice. Again, I stand by my statement that your claim of an 18% increase across the board over the next 5 years is absolute insanity.
But remember the smart people are waiting on the sidelines since 2020. Now they are waiting for prices to go up back to 2021 prices but at a higher interest rate than what they would have got in 2020-2022. But they are the smart sideliners.
@@timothyandrewnielsen the home is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Not what you think it's worth. You don't even know where I live yet you think you know what my home should be worth? You are your own worst enemy. We bought within our budget when we were ready to buy at 2.99 percent interest rate.
Sometimes you do have to chase the FOMO when prices kept on creeping higher and higher or, missed out forever. I am not kidding bro and I'm also in CA. Don't listen to Nick Gerli or Michael Bordenaro or any big bears in YT
Also, buyers have unrealistic expectations. I listed a home for 600k and I got feedback complaints like "I don't like the color of the carpet in the basement" or "I don't like the tree in the front yard". I did 60k in renovation including new kitchen and updated bathrooms. People want an HGTV home already renovated at a low price. It is not realistic. Nobody is willing to buy a fixer upper and do sweat equity over time or live in markets that are affordable like Ohio or Iowa. Also, people are not willing to buy a condo, live there for 5 years, build equity, sell and then buy a larger home.
⏩You will REGRET Buying A House in 2023 - th-cam.com/video/adPB28R7fNc/w-d-xo.html
⏩Why You'll REGRET Getting A Mortgage In 2024 - th-cam.com/video/i-CIa3yK2C4/w-d-xo.html
⏩Why You'll REGRET Getting A Mortgage In 2024 - th-cam.com/video/i-CIa3yK2C4/w-d-xo.html
✅ - Work Directly with My Team (Mortgage and Real Estate Nationwide) - www.jebsmith.net/referral
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with 'Grace Adams Cook' for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
I think most people are not buying because they are priced out of the market not because they are waiting for a correction.
That’s the heart of the issue, if people could afford to buy they would because unless it’s an investment property, your home and the location of it largely determines your lifestyle, so there is a huge emotional component to buying a house.
I agree, most people are priced out. If they realistically try to buy a home and only use 25% of their income on a home. It's very rare to find a buyer who bought a home the last 4 years and only spend 25% or less on housing. Most lenders want your money and will be like "you qualify" while using a dti that's outrageous 40-60% just for the M/I/T/PMI, maintain etc.
@@rcarloz great point I too agree 👍🏽
I’m in Los Angeles, I went to 6 open houses yesterday, no buyers like 2 years ago, I saw price cuts and desperate sellers, the only problem I see is starving realtors, time is on buyers side
@@criticalthinker9829 as an ex real estate proffesional from 05-19 and dealing specifically in metro Los Angeles I can tell you from my prospective this is just the tip of the iceberg.. sellers are desperate because they missed the train, agents are starving, and inventory will continue to flood, anybody who bought during fomo and was hustled on the artificial Inflation is in for a storm.. I'll be ready to invest again next fall
😂👍
Sounds like an agent crying for commissions...
Please please please come back buy something, I beg you I can't pay my rent/mortgage!
Why do you care if people are waiting or not? Are they living with you now???
It's their money and their choice!
Everyone is a smart*** with a smart phone nowadays!
100%
The majority of people giving this advice are realtors. The principles of supply and demand fall apart when the specific demographic of intended buyers is physically incapable of affording the homes intended for them. This has never happened in history, but we're on the brink. Also, not all areas are experiencing inventory shortages. Look at the current Philly market: an abundance of homes that have been sitting for months with regular price cuts and still few buyers. It's all investor sellers with a limited buyer audience. Can't wait to come back to this vid in two years...don't delete it when that happens 🙂
I’ll take my chances, my rent is much cheaper 1500 less than a mortgage
understood but where is your rent going to be in 10 years? Owning may end up costing you more monthly but long term is something that you NEED to do.
@@JebSmith😂 typical realtor BS.
@@AnonymousPerson0182this guy is the biggest cuck agent on TH-cam.😂
@@JebSmithwhere are there property taxes and insurance going to be on their "450k home that they bought in 2024 that's going to be worth 541k in 2028"? That's only 4 years JEB. Are home prices going to go up another 18%+ over the next 6 years after that? Or are you just talking out of your ass on TH-cam? Delete this whole channel, you're embarrassing yourself.
@@jayk3551 where did I say that they didn't?
My home dropped by 10k in August. I jumped on it and closed two weeks ago. Waiting around another 2-3 years on prices just wasn't smart to me.
Nice work!
Whether it's the stock market or real estate, I find that trying to time the market is extremely exhausting.
Just go in when you have the means and enjoy the long-term growth.
💯
And that's why Wall Street always wins. They're playing the long game, while all the market buyers can't be patient for a couple years and wait for the market to come back because it's exhausting to wait.
I will not regret because I will not have debt when I eventually get a home.
Terrible advice. A recession is indeed coming and everyone is already priced out of the market. Be patient.
Perhaps you should check out a chart of home prices over the last 60+ years overlaid with recessions. There's been 7 and home prices increased in all of them except one which was the cause for the recession to start.
@@JebSmithyou sound desperate as hell.
@@JebSmith The US economy is dynamic, which means that historical data has limited value. Home prices have so far outstripped income that a correction is inevitable.
@@JebSmithin the long term, housing price will always go up in the big trend but buying a home while it’s on its short term spike is not a wise action especially if you can’t afford it. It’s not matter of a regret when some commodity is so far out of reach. What you are suggesting is like a Ferrari car sale man tries to sell a 3000 dollar monthly income person a car.
I live in Northern New Jersey. I waited over 2 years for the market to "crash". My house was listed for $789K. Listing agent received 11 offers. I wasn't even a consideration. Out of 11 offers there were only two cash offers; I being one of them. House fell through and they called me last minute. I still overpaid at $825K cash. Tax assessor just sent me a nice letter stating I will be accessed at a tax rate of 3 on a house he valued at $603K. He's also penalizing me with house renovation permits that were closed prior to my closing for an additional $4,500. My taxes will be over $22K. Folks, it's a shit show. The government wants you to own nothing. Oh, and I can't wait to pay estimated taxes on unrealized gains on my house and 401K if they succeed. The point of my comment; maybe I should have continued renting at $1,800 a month. The rent included cable, water, and utilities.
You bought in new jersey. 3 most in debt state in the nation. I'd get the F outa there. Queens NY here. I'm looking to bail from the region entirely. Not worth the taxes.
@@timothyandrewnielsen Former New Yorker. Yup, can pack fast enough to get the hell out of here. - I haven't settled into my house yet (1 month in) and most likely after talking with my attorney will have to put house back on the market. My concern now is someone not wanting to buy because of the high taxes. For clarification, it's not the assessment on the purchase of the house (I knew that was coming) that bothers me as much, it is the extra added property taxes because of renovations done to the house before I purchased it. Good luck to you.
@@lasandra1099 825k home with 22k in yearly property taxes would keep you working until you're dead. That's the plan all along.
im not waiting for lower prices. i have no choice because i cant afford these ridiculous prices
EXACTLY! This guy is so out of touch and just trying to push the fear of missing out bullshit.
I mean sure 4-5 years from now…but in the more immediate future I doubt it. People in 2022 who waited until now (depending on area ofc) ain’t regretting it. Prices in north Texas have decreased in many areas as much as 15-20%. The question ofc is what’s the bottom…when do they stop dropping because many are still sitting after 3-5 months.
Looking in the short term is too small a window in my opinion…..you have to look long term when it comes to real estate.
@@JebSmith under normal circumstances I'd agree with you, but when housing jumped 175-200% in a 3 year window then the short term becomes an important factor. That wasn't normal and therefore the market will correct itself to some degree. Had I bought in the area I was looking at 2 years ago I would have purchased a house at 700k that is now selling under 600k. With margins so tight for many buyers right now considering what is happening in the short term may be their only option. Yes that now 600k house will go up in value over the next 5 years, but in the short term I would have lost about 100k value in that investiment had I not waited. And yes a few states may be more outliers than others like Texas (where I'm at) and Florida where there's a lot of inventory, so that's why I stress location is also an important factor.
Not realty. No way..prices are getting lowered by the day.
It's partly seasonal and because rates are higher...........As rates come back down, demand is likely to pick up and prices will continue doing what they've done for the last 65+ years. The best time to buy is when the market has slowed like the market were in right now.
yeah this dudes wrong lol . houses been dropping in my town like crazy for over a year so its 100% not seasonal! a couple years ago there was like 10 houses for sale in my town now there's almost 300 and there all sitting for a long time. only ones that sell are ones with price reductions of 25+% ill wait another year or two so i can buy at 40-60% off...
Don't listen to this guy, he has an agenda. He is far away from reality.
Prices are declining in Florida and it will settle at acceptable rates
You're crazy man. Look I've been on this channel since before 2021 and closed on my house in early 2021 when interest rates were at 2.5%. I'm glad I didn't wait because prices increased enough for us to purchase another property from the equity of the 2021 home. Jeb knows what he is talking about.
@@cthomas8993 2021 situation was different and was the right thing to do. Convincing someone tu buy in 2024 is not correct advice. How do you scare someone into buying? Scare them prices will rise in 2028 that's what Jeb is doing
I am with you all this gurus know nothing, old brain washed crap, the next 10 years going to be nothing like last 100, we going to world depression like never in human whole history, most people won’t make it, get ready while you can!!! So tell me guru now who the hell you going to sell the house that will go in price? The unemployed or homeless? Just saying
@@cthomas8993 that’s exactly what I did too. 2.75% interest rate and pulled a HILOC out this year and bought a second house. Jeb is realistic and goes based on data and analysis which is why it made sense for me at the time to listen to him. Real state is local. I’m in his region and listen.
@@ramanujpatro Jeb isn't scaring anybody into doing anything, he always prefaces "if" the time is right, he's not out here telling people to stretch themselves or cash in investments or borrow from retirement plans, the hard truth is there still isn't enough inventory in most places around the country, that will keep prices high and push them higher unless inventory improves drastically, here in California the state estimated that we were short 400K homes to meet demand, does that mean prices are going up 10-20% a year? Absolutely not, but it does mean prices won't collapse because the number of people who want to buy a home still outpaces the number of homes available. It's literally that simple.
Unfortunately home ownership has became unattainable for a very large portion of America.
Sorry but i disagree. Majority of Americans are absolutely priced out of the market. Theres no secret. Volume has been tremendously low. There are too many signs and indicators that a correction is needed. For prices to continue climbing up only means less and less activity
He’s an idiot, and desperate. Houses are sitting where I live in Maryland.
..Ditto for waiting to build a new house - because you THINK material costs will go down. THOSE "might", but labor costs are waayyy up! We are finishing construction on a home that cost us 35% more than when we budgeted it online - 2 years before! The contractor I had got the ridiculous bid from "advised" me to "wait until next winter; sub's(contractors) will have less work, their rates will drop.. WE ARE SO GLAD we didn't wait, but instead went to another contractor, sharpened the pencil, and did the most "labor effective" design we could.. Still high, but 30% lower than today's costs!! Don't wait. if you can afford to build!
Well said…..inflation will continue to push costs higher.
Price is dropping like crazy already
Where?
you are wrong
Time will tell.
@@JebSmithas will your bank account.
@Katiecrypto-m3e houses aren’t selling where I live. More foreclosures as well. This guy is pushing the FOMO narrative.
@Katiecrypto-m3e I am giving you one example in Los Angeles that seller lost about $200 K selling their house which they purchased 2 years ago.
28304 Lorita Ln, Saugus, CA 91350
A correction is overdue and will happen. Prices will drop.
okay, I'll be waiting.
Next year when my rent lease is almost up I’m just gonna say screw it and look for condo. House prices in Utah are barely changing. Seeing quite a few condos go on the market some have dropped by more the 50k in the past 3 months.
There dropping where I am looking
Best advice.
Thank you.
@@JebSmith I think he is being sarcastic
Which one do you think is better from purchasing pre-construction distress sale?
I don't understand the questions? Distress in new construction? I don't see it happening right now.
Interest rates keep rising even though the Fed cut rates. The era of easy money is over.
In the short term, unfortunately, I agree
@@JebSmith Unfortunately?
CENTRAL FLORIDA has a lot of inventory right now and I believe prices are going down since the ones selling are dropping prices
There are definitely pockets in FL and TX where prices have come down……it’s probably not over yet. Know your market but picking the top or bottom is still a fools game. Buy when it’s right for you
Great info for investors!
Thanks for the support.
I'm confused. I normally love your message, but this video seems more like a typical realtor telling people to buy now. Buyers can't buy what they can't afford. Inventory is increasing and days on market are increasing as well. Affordability is low and sales prices are out of whack in certain markets. While you cannot time the market, you should also not dive in foolishly because you are afraid of missing out on home ownership and potential equity. Sometimes renting is the better and more affordable solution. Uh, Hello, Jeb. FYI, in Florida short sales and foreclosures are increasing. Your advice seems more self-serving than helpful. While I personally don't believe that the market is going to crash, I do believe it's correcting itself post pandemic. Buyers need to find good realtors who think like investors and understand the local market and numbers. Secondly, arm yourself with a good loan officer who understands your situation, finances and also understands numbers and actually understands real estate (most loan officers don't). A good team will empower you to make good decisions that will help set you un in the future.
Housing is going to get more expensive with inflation, lack of supply (nationwide) which means it's going to cost more to own that home over time. It doesn't mean that you need to rush out and buy it today but you need to have a plan to either become a homeowner at some point or be investing your money wisely. As you know from my other videos, you have to buy when it's the right time in your life, that's always the right move rather than trying to predict what's coming next.
@@JebSmithyou are pushing the FOMO agenda, and no one is buying.
No, they won't. Prices are hugely inflated and we're not going to see 2.98% mortgages again in our lifetime. There needs to be a large correction. If not the market will run out of buyers. It's already happening.
This is one of the few videos that talks about the regret from waiting for a crash. I also know someone who waited in 2020 and was excited about getting a foreclosure. They’re still renting and are afraid of being priced out. They now have some urgency to buy.
There’s so many “buyers remorse” videos out there and I believe people watch them to make themselves feel better about their own decisions that caused them to still be renting. Some people have really messed up and lost a lot of money when they decided to wait for a crash.
But they were able to save a massive amount of money right? If they weren’t stacking cash and compounding then they played their selves
Most that I know that are waiting aren’t in a better position because they are investing well or stacking money but rather spending just as much as they previously were with nothing to show for while hoping for a crash
@@Dee0426 yea there is potential for saving cash if you're renting but it also leads to degraded quality of life living in some small apartment with kids.
Sort of bogus and it depends on what you were paying in rent. I'll do some rough math for you about my situation which is exactly what you touched on.
I bring home $5000 a month after taxes and spend $1600 on rent. Wife makes about the same. So for easy math, let's say we bank $10k after taxes.
If I buy a home in my area, it's an easy $800k. That's about a $4.5k a month mortgage. If I put $350k Down on an 800k home at 6% interest on a 30 year. The bank makes $520K over the course of that mortgage.
If I keep renting, the yearly money lost on rent is $20k (for easy math). If we take on that mortgage, the yearly money lost to interest is $2200 until 14 years from the time you take on that mortgage (assuming you're not overpaying). In 14 years, at my current rate of saving ( ~6k a month) we would have saved 1 million dollars. At which point we could just buy the home outright.
However, home values go up, so 1million may not be the same priced home. HOWEVER. All we need is the difference. Lets say in the time we save, home values go up another 100k. So that 800k home is 900k. So we need 900k - 350k = 550k. We could save that (550k) at our current rent rate, in 7.6 years and pay CASH. While renting, I would have lost about 150k to rent during that time.
So while I could take out a mortgage, I could just save for 7-8 years then buy the home cash. Saving myself roughly 520k (interest paid to bank over course of mortgage ) MINUS 150k ( money lost renting ) = 430k.
So just saving my money and waiting to buy cash (or extremely close to paying cash) I would save ~400k. 400k is a lot of money. It's insane to think taking out massive debt makes sense to anyone except your own greed because you "need" a home now. No you don't. Do the math.
@@timothyandrewnielsen your scenario works assuming 2 conditions are met, first you have to have a rental that is well below market rate and secondly, your family needs do not necessitate you buying a larger home than you are currently renting.
We had a similar situation, we paid $900 rent on an 1100 sq ft house with a detached garage, large yard and pool... In Northern California! We were in the rental for 5 years and our rent only went up $150 a month from when we moved in to when we left. We were in the market since 2018 but we thought prices were way too high (they had been climbing steadily since 2015) and we though what goes up will surely come down so we kept stockpiling cash and investing until 2021 when our landlord sold the property. We had to buy in the midst of the Covid era craziness with little inventory and skyrocketing prices, long story short to rent a comparable house to what we were renting would cost us almost 3 times more than what we were paying in rent, and frankly we wanted a larger home anyway as our kids were getting older.
Our options were rent at market rate which would severely cut our ability to save cash and invest with no guarantee that rents wouldn't rise further (they haven't they have only kept rising), use the savings we had accumulated to buy a home we could afford and fit into our monthly budget and fix our housing costs long term, if we didn't need a bigger house, and we could have stayed in the cheap rental for another 7-9 years we might have been able to buy a house cash but at that point what would be the point, my kids would be effectively out of the house and in school so buying a larger house wouldn't make much sense. Am I paying interest? Yes, but paying market rate rents would eventually strain my budget, when we bought 30% of our net income went to mortgage/taxes/insurance, today it's 25% so while it would have been nice to pay cash for the house, buying at 2.85% APR for 30 years is what best fit our budget given our circumstances.
Nice try, Jeb. 18% more over the next 5 years? That is an insane statement. They also "expected" multiple rate cuts in 2023 and 2024. Howd that go?
The expected rate cuts weren't until 2024 and I believe the initial estimate was 3 rate cuts while the market was thinking 6, looks like we'll probably end up with around 4 cuts so pretty much in line with consensus. If you don't think prices are going to continue to go up (not astronomically but probably around 3% per year) then you must think they are going to be able to increase supply in a meaningful way nationwide which isn't going to happen overnight especially as most builders have put a hold on building until rates adjust.............That said, the lack of supply with continue to be the issue that keeps prices increasing along with a steady 2%+ inflation.
@@JebSmith yeah you can believe whatever you want, that doesn't make it true. Jerome Powell originally aimed for one rate cut a quarter in 2024 at around .2-.25 basis points each. I know you can do a little math there. There has literally been one significant rate cut and it was only a couple of months ago and rates have slowly but steadily climbed back since then. Where are you getting your information from exactly? Home prices have already fallen by a pretty significant percentage in a number of states. Are you seriously going to sit here and argue that isn't true? People like you who create these channels and all of these cuck realtors on Instagram etc are the reason we're in this position and I genuinely feel bad for first time homebuyers who are getting pulled in the wrong direction with seriously ill advised advice. Again, I stand by my statement that your claim of an 18% increase across the board over the next 5 years is absolute insanity.
But remember the smart people are waiting on the sidelines since 2020. Now they are waiting for prices to go up back to 2021 prices but at a higher interest rate than what they would have got in 2020-2022. But they are the smart sideliners.
lol they stopped talking about 2020. They talk about 2022 to make it look like it crashed.
The “smart” always seems to be waiting for something that gives them a reason why they aren’t taking action now
@@Jack-pd4ps Yeah, they went from talking about a major crash to now making it seem like 2022 prices would be a win for them.
Your home still isn't worth what you paid for it.
@@timothyandrewnielsen the home is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Not what you think it's worth. You don't even know where I live yet you think you know what my home should be worth? You are your own worst enemy. We bought within our budget when we were ready to buy at 2.99 percent interest rate.
Thanks for the notification smashed the thumbs up good information on the changes to the housing market
🫶
Sometimes you do have to chase the FOMO when prices kept on creeping higher and higher or, missed out forever. I am not kidding bro and I'm also in CA. Don't listen to Nick Gerli or Michael Bordenaro or any big bears in YT
We are in the bubble
Also, buyers have unrealistic expectations. I listed a home for 600k and I got feedback complaints like "I don't like the color of the carpet in the basement" or "I don't like the tree in the front yard". I did 60k in renovation including new kitchen and updated bathrooms. People want an HGTV home already renovated at a low price. It is not realistic. Nobody is willing to buy a fixer upper and do sweat equity over time or live in markets that are affordable like Ohio or Iowa. Also, people are not willing to buy a condo, live there for 5 years, build equity, sell and then buy a larger home.
Maybe the problem is that you priced too high for a fixer upper! Out of touch.
@@AnonymousPerson0182 Not a fixer upper. 60k in renovation including new kitchen and updated bathrooms and completely refinished hardwood floors.
@@proudliberal24-sv1woit’s obviously the price. Sellers need to come down to earth and realize the COVID buying frenzy is over. Drop the price!
Lol
lol
This man is lying to you. 450 now will be 300 in 2028
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣