Expect more challenges ahead for the housing market in 2025, says Ivy Zelman
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.พ. 2025
- Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates executive vice president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the housing market, 2025 outlook, and more.
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The problem is that in order to have "permanent roof" with amenities like electricity, gas and water, either the tenant or the owner must somehow pay insurance and property taxes. As a result, a lot of people live in tents, at least in California, where I presently dwell. Not a single mortgage, tax, rent, or insurance. It amazes me how many folks I meet who tell me they live in their cars. This place is insane!
It's becoming more and more insane by the day. Mortgage rates have been rising steadily (already over 7%). I often wonder if I should put my extra money into the stock market and wait for a housing crash, or if I should just buy a house regardless.
Such concerns also come to me. After 50, I'm retiring early. I'm already concerned about the direction the future is taking, particularly with regard to finances and making ends meet. I'm thinking about investing in the stock market for the first time as well, but how can I accomplish so considering that the market has been in disarray for much of the year?
having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
@@viviancarolgioao My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Honest, straight forward answers. She didn't sugar coat it. Thanks
Merry Christmas! Enjoy renting forever. She was brutal. LOL.
To me, she look uninterested
Tbh at this point i gave up on buying a house for now just gonna keep living with my parents and keep saving. If by when i retire the situation remains jist move to another country and call it a day.
i am in the same boat. not sure if i should just leave home and rent for now. i work remote though so why waste money..
Consider just moving to any small town America. Plenty of affordable housing out there. But you give up amenities and attractions. It's worth it tho.
I think the next wave of youth buying will be people that stayed with their parents, payed off student debts and got their down payment.
If you have good parents, take advantage of it and don't let people guilt you out of a saving opportunity.
@@headinghome1644cant i have a good job in nyc with 401k and full health insurance just too expensive to buy anywhere within a 2hr commute from where i work sadly.
@@headinghome1644Yeah right I live in a small town & they’re building nothing but million dollar homes & luxury apartments.
Can we make her answer all economy related questions on CNBC? Love the clear answers
Rising mortgage rates and stricter lending criteria are already making it harder for people to buy homes. I’m not sure how this will affect property values or whether now is even a good time to invest in real estate.
Exactly! I’ve also been worried about the ripple effects. Inflation, coupled with potential job market instability, could make it harder to hold onto property or even find tenants for rental units. I think diversifying your portfolio is critical right now to reduce exposure to just one type of investment.
I was in a similar situation last year, and my CFA, Joseph Nick Cahill, really helped me navigate it. He’s experienced in portfolio management and knows how to balance risk while still aiming for significant growth. His free consultations are a great way to start exploring your options.
That’s a solid recommendation! I’ve been trying to manage my investments myself, but I’m constantly second-guessing my decisions. Between market volatility and potential housing market shifts, I feel like I need a strategy that doesn’t rely too heavily on just one sector.
Overleveraging in real estate or ignoring high-growth sectors like tech or energy could leave you vulnerable. It’s smart to seek advice now, especially with someone like Joseph Nick Cahill, who has a proven track record of helping clients achieve financial security and even millionaire status over time.
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored his website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon
Don't have a job = can't afford housing.
Have a job = can't afford housing.
So why have a job?
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Regina to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?
Finding financial advisors like Lisa Grace Myer ” who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
the interest rate is not the problem. Its the high property taxes, HOA, PMI, and homeowner Insurance .... that is making it impossible to own a modest home.
It’s nearly impossible to buy a home without a HOA. 😞
Agreeing with others. She’s great at actually answering questions, have her on again.
End the flipper and Investor epidemic
Nah let me eat
@ how about a 9 millimeter?
People should separate their mortgage from taxes and insurance you’re allowed to do it. You can get a separate bill for your insurance. You can get a separate bill for your property taxes and all you’ll be left with. Is your mortgage payment?
Florida condo HOA fees going to $2000 months within 3 years
My HOA fee in a certain section of Indianapolis is only going up by $2 for the next year. It’ll be $90.30 due every 3 months instead of $88 due every 3 months. I’m lucky. The monthly payments are expensive enough.
Do not be put off by higher interest rates! Back in the 80’s these were the rates:
1980 13.74%
1980 16.64%
1986 10.19%
1989 10.25%
Besides, you can always renegotiate after obtaining the mortgage loan!
and you could buy a house for 50k
@@Chi-Guy you’re correct, you can always renogiate mortgage rate. But you can’t renogiate the price you paid. Better to wait and see the effects of the higher interest rates kick in. Then you’ll be able to buy a house for a lower purchase price at a higher interest rate. Then you have the possibility of negotiating the interest rate.
I'm in a fairly nice suburb of Cincinnati but not wealthy. I don't see any new construction for middle class homes. Everything I pass is for the affluent/upper middle class. Then there's the apartment complexes that aren't even affordable for the working class. So we are going to end up with McMansions and apartments and trailer parks but no new construction that is affordable for the middle class. This just causes more people to lose faith in unregulated capitalism. Many university students don't even believe that free enterprise is going to work for them. I have 2 nieces who r both graduates of high end schools and neither one has a well paying job. The main positive thing is they both met their husbands there but as far as employment/income they haven't gotten much return on investment. I'm talking here about Princeton U and the U of Chicago which u can Google for the current cost.
All I keep hearing is that it’s not profitable to build smaller affordable homes🙁How are they getting away with this crap? Not everyone wants McMansion but there’s no other options.
I’m 24 make more than everyone I graduated college with and can’t afford anything in Columbus. I’m kinda tapped out
@Mikey-w9q It's funny how finally the talking heads as some call them r now admitting that it was completely stupid to push the idea that everyone should go to college etc. I eat out daily and it's common to talk with the server and find out that they have a college degree. Meanwhile the person who started with UPS right out of high school has close to a 6 figure income with no debt and they own a nice home too. And yes, I know people personally in both categories. This isn't just something I heard some blowhard in the radio say. There r people with a master's degree but they don't make what an electrician at FORD makes.
My nieces both thankfully chose instate schools and both are in long-term relationships, because they will need two incomes to own a home.
How can home prices keep going up when people cannot afford the homes.
So all this bad news should bring down home prices! Because if your home sites on market you must lower price to sell. Hey that’s good news long term!!!!!!
Now people realize how a matket crash is feasable. Unnafordability
We already have it. Thanks to Biden. Sheesh
@@dpellek74 You have your savior Trump to save the day, just like he promised.
How can home prices be going up?
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working families are getting squeezed 😢
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People cannot afford houses. They are too expensive. Builders are only building high price homes.
My property tax is higher than mortgage
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Everyone wants more money but complain about the tax
This is all a game to make the rich even more rich. My eyes are opened.
Meanwhile you have people saying it's due to the actual house price lol begging for a 60% correction...aka I wanna buy a house now and I want it to be super cheap.
Haha I don’t have a mortgage mortgage dirty word
She is the ultimate expert!
Home prices were fine till Trump had the interest rates lowered close to 2% when he was first elected as president. After that, prices of homes increased, and everyone refinanced . Why would I sell my home if my mortgage is extremely low.
I got 2 3/4% for 30 years. I ain't ever selling.
Incorrect. Rates were 3.66% in 2012 and 4.54% in 2018 and 2.96% in 2021. Please reply to the comment section with facts.
Incorrect. Rates were 3.66% in 2012 and 4.54% in 2018 and 2.96% in 2021. Please reply to the comment section with facts.
@ruth6958 You are right, The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near zero as the U.S. economy has been rocked by the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak in March 2020 & Trump was pleased. You stated 2.96% interest rates in 2021, depending on your credit rating, and willing to pay extra. You can lower your interest rates close to 2%. Plus, banks can determine interest rates, that capitalism and those are facts. Either way, the majority of the home owners refinanced their homes under Trump. That is why homes are not selling and prices increase. As a homeowner with 2.96% mortgage, it would be stupid of me to sell. Those are facts. Thank Trump for high home prices
@@CA-gk3cf OK! Guess facts are out the window. Thank Biden for high home prices and run away inflation. Thanks for the facts the way you see them or twist them.
I agree 100% insurance companies being greedy but iam dropping my insurance to make a point
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider recommendation from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Jessica Dawn Walters for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Jessica.
When these idiots say rates won't go lower... that's your sign rates WILL GO LOWER.... do the opposite of what they say
Rates are what they are. You can’t do the opposite here😂
Haha ohhh someone is a kamala supporter
10-15% above trend for affordability? More like 50% above lady...
Id be happy with 10%.
Stip listening to MSM. When will all of you learn.
She’s already blaming Trump for inflation? What a coward
He’s not even the president and he’s getting blamed.
Home values will continue to decline for years.
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Simple just buy builders with good relative strength
This is what happens when you increae the money supply by 40%
So basically, normal people will never be able to afford a nice home
Blame trump
@@zacharyrichard2764 you misspelled Biden
@@edd06001 blame neither. Tunnel vision is killing ya’ll. This isn’t a president issue. It’s a greed issue.
I sold my Florida condo at the top and moved to Mexico. I love it
Stop buying new cars, expensive unnecessary college debt, go to community college, dont need newests phones every year. Quit buying Starbucks everyday if your living check to check. Baby steps but you can get there
Ivy zelman handling stupid questions with intelligent answers.
Too much money on the stock market means more demand on housing.
Try Jimmy Carter inflation! Move forward start smaller stop whining
Housing price increases have outpaced inflation by 150% Since 1970. In the 1970's home prices were 2.6 times the median income compared to a current ratio that is over 5 times the median income. These young people are not "whining". They are being realistic about their prospects for home ownership. And a home that is 5x their income that is increasing in price by even 4-6% each year is outpacing any savings they can manage to put together.
Here comes the price reset
This lady is just too excited. She needs to relax a bit.
When mortgage rates decline, home prices rise. Unless supply rises as well, affordability may not be affected.
That's economic theory in an an isolated bubble. You need to overlay it with: 1) how many people can afford homes at current prices, let alone with an increase. 2) is there actually a shortage or is it artificial? I think sales can't go up until middle class salaries do some serious jumping. And I don't see a real shortage, I see older people with one or two people leaving in 4-5 bedroom/2 bath houses because they can't afford to downsize due to the same housing bubble we're discussing. That's not a real shortage. Parts of eastern Europe had an actual housing shortage in the 80s, where you had to live with your parents after school not because you couldn't afford an apartment, but because of a lack of apartments available for everyone looking. That's very much the opposite of what's going on right now
My first condominium while new and affordable suffered a mortgage paying 12.5%. It was a variable rate loan which fell year after year to about 6.5%. As the mortgage rate fell, the value of my home rose by 36%. My most recent home I again bought with a variable rate loan, 2.75% adjustable after five years. With mortgage rates that low, in the term of the mortgage, the value of the home rose 64% to its current value. My experience tells me so.
@@PRT709 OK but this sort of math can't continue exponentially forever and is capped at when home prices get around 6X the median household income because people literally can't afford the houses, even if the rate is 0%. We hit a point where homes were 8X the average household income, which is why sales hit a 30 year low.
Also if you held houses this long with those rates, your going back to historic prices where things were (can't even imagine this now) cheap! Again, cant extrapolate that forward, unless you think houses can get so expensive that we have 400 year mortgages.
If a homeowner or estate needs to sell under such demanding conditions, the list price will fall. And, I have seen that once in the slow periods for a bit, home builders will need income and build regardless of interest rates and general conditions.
Rates will most likely not drop. Inflation is expected to go higher due to tariffs
Here in Brevard county Florida. They keep building houses even thou many on the market.
More challenges says who
CNBC has a theme, its always Trumps fault.
Loosen your fanny pack, you aren’t paying attention if that’s your take
I am exiting from my rental property business, as my insurance and taxes are more than my mortgages, and It’s only becoming speculative the money I would make is only on application and not cash flow anymore.
Consider Bitcoin. Digital real estate
Insurance companies have to raise rates to cover the artificially over priced homes.
@@robertjones2282 no insurance, property tax, vacancy, tenants. Best preforming asset in the last 15 years
I have stated the same prediction a week or so ago. We need to build more new homes and keep on lowering interest rates. But lowering interest rates might spike inflation.
Affordable housing?
That's the old theory people keep saying and it's not helping because it's not aligning with reality. In reality, we had insane price increases due to rich people leaving cities in a rush during covid, and now greedy home sellers/realtors treating those insanely high prices as some new floor/"comp" and refusing to lower prices, no matter if only 2% of households can afford their mediocre house. This is very much not solvable by tweaking interest rates. Also people keep forgetting housing is not prices on supply/demand, it's based on comps. A real estate agent will always pick the highest price sale in the area and will refuse to budge from there. The issue now is, the comps are people who left places like NYC in a mad rush and paid $700K for houses that were $400K pre-covid. And now sellers are pretending $700K is the natural price for their house even though only a few percent of households can afford it
Is there an expert that can provide concise, non-biased, explanation of why mortgage rates have not decreased as expected, even after fed rate cuts?
1. High federal government deficit, means when they auction bonds, they have to pay higher interest rates to the buyers because of the risk of potential future defaults. The mortgage rates are benchmarked against the 10 year bond. 2. Higher inflation due to potential higher tariffs in 2025.
Due to Fed rate cuts ur credit card and savings rate are the only rates impacted and would go down.
Wait until the 10 year hits 6% 😀
Great explanation. Saved me from having to write it.