A conservative's caution about National & Tamil Nadu Polls • Prof RV
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2024
- Prof R Vaidyanathan gives us his views on what the polls foretell. Will Modi/ Annamalai/ BJP breach the formidable Dravida Fortress?
#Elections2024 #LokSabha2024 #BJP #Modi #Annamalai
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00:00 - Intro
01:30 - A look back into NDA’s performance in 2019
08:25 - BJP & NDA’s performance for LS 2024
12:21 - BJP in Tamil Nadu
19:26 - DMK worried?
24:37 - Prof RV cautions!
30:33 - New schemes to offer freebies to lure voters
35:50 - No action on DMK corruption?
38:03 - BJP hasn’t taken any action, what difference it will make breaching TN?
39:15 - Modiji’s plans for Modi 3.0
44:52 - Does our democracy serve any purpose?
45:19 - Annamalai win significant number of seats in 2024 LS polls?
46:08 - Possibility of Madurai seat
46:55 - Bengaluru blast case
47:54 - Shivmogga LS seat
49:05 - DMK hell bent to defeat Annamalai
51:35 - BJP giving 16 seats to JDU?
52:31 - Any honest channel in TN?
54:14 - When will Sriram Sheshadri on PGurus?
55:12 - Why fellows like A.Raja not put behind bars?
56:14 - Video - Sree Iyer’s take on TN
57:35 - Why NRIs not able to vote from overseas even today?
58:02 - Will ADMK leaders move to BJP, if BJP performs well? - บันเทิง
This interview is so depressing for the current mood! Iyer sir must archive this! West Bengal, telengana was not taken in to account
Our prayers are with Annamalai.
Let GOD bestow him with success for all the sincere hard work he has done to bring BJP to the forefront in TN.
Pray for foolish voters who vote for caste, party, dynasty etc and not to the right person.
Prof.RV says that "unfortunately " ????communists decline started during 2010s......😂😂.....infact its a good riddance 😂😂😂
He was pessimistic about Modi's prospects in 2019 elections also. His logic was that young voters have a limited attention span for any brand and the same holds good for brand Modi. Fortunately it didn't happen that way. He was not sure of Modi getting an absolute majority and like Subramanian Swamy he was unobtrusively hoping for a hung assembly and then Gadkari would become the PM. Nevertheless I am a great admirer of professor Vaidyanathan.
Wish and hope a spectacular win for Mr. Annamalai/BJP
Nothing wrong in wishing. But realty Annamali loose
@@mahalingamarunachalam9428 burnol???
Anmamalai BJP will get 5 seats but if he went along withOUT PMK or Sarathkumar - he may get 10 Seats
No burnol, just Colgate for your mouth😅@@kd579
My best wishes to BJP in TN state under the leadership of Annamalai to win by a huge margin. As per him, 2026 BJP in opposition and in 2031 as ruling party in TN state. Yes there are disgruntled cadres within the party who can't tolerate this phenomenal growth of the party under his leadership.
There is no disgruntled BJP caders in TN. All the seniors are happy about the growth of BJP after L.Murugan and now Annamalai for which they were building the basement. As father or grandfather in a family, they are proud of BJP. Many of the seniors who could not even become an MLA twice are being glorified as Governors, in recognition of their services.
@@balasubramaniansambasivam2218 My comments were in my perspective of the party. But that doesn't absolve my remark that there's no dissent within BJP. Leave the cadre who had their membership from RSS, they're are still upholding the party ideology. I refer to those who have switched camp from the D-stock ideology gang ecosystem, but their thought process will still remain the same.
@@bencherdent1696 agreed but they are good riddance. The opportunist new comers are sure to feel jealous but good that they feel so and leave…..sv sekar ,gowthami Gayathri Raghuram et all. They want free lunch but no free lunch in bjp.
This time professor had not considered the condition of the opposition. Except in TN the coalition is in shambles. Modi ji and Amit Shah both are masters in snatching victory from the mouth of defeat. Nitish was allowed to migrate only because he was the one who pioneered the formation of dot alliance.
A big surprise is waiting for professor this time.
True ,plus Amit Shah and Modi will sideline nitish kumar after elections and will pretty much end his political career
BJP 364 plus minus 6
NDA 418 plus minus 7
Congress 23-26
My analysis
I m strongly believe that Congress wont' cross 25. Cong may get 5 each in TN, Kerala, Telengana and 10 in rest of the India. In the largest 10 States Congess will get 0 seats.
Hope this comes true sir
Hopefully this will turn to be a reality
Hope for the best but very difficult
You sound delusional
It's the deficiencies in our legal system that need to be held accountable, rather than questioning the current government's determination to combat corruption.
Namaskarams to both of u sir,very Very happy to see u sir.❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉
A long long wait for prof R. V. Namaskaram🙏🙏🙏🙏
Our vote is for development, to keep away currupt parties and family parties, keep away ideology originated outside, not for religious appeasement. To have Indian culture and history retained, history must be on the basis of facts and evidents, we should not glorify the invaders of our country. We must give importance to the invensions and achievement of India.
so great knowledge salute sir..best wishes to Annamalai sir, win for sanatan dharma.. jai ho..
With all due respect to Prof R V and you, Sir, this is not the same BJP of Shyamaprasad Mukharji, Balraj Madhok, Deendayal Upadhyay, Vajpayee, Advani, this is 24 X 7 Aggressive Election mode machine, so maybe anything is possible.
"BJP is 24 X 7 Aggressive Election mode machine" -
Good word-soup ! By the way, what mode was Congress in for 60+ years (since 1947 to 2014) ? CORRUPTION MODE ?
This is a Modernized Money minded Adani Ambani BJP ProRich
@@lakshminarayan6727😂 Adani and Ambani become what they are today before 2014. They were billionaire before 2014 as well 😂. Sir please study something and see how BJP has attacked the poverty in last 10 years and the scheme for poor
@@hardik.rathod.7515 Rathodji.......BJPs tears for poor is just crocodile tears: the job of any Govt is to levy more tax on the rich & give it to the poor. The 10 BJP Budgets have done the opposite....BJP has no doubt cut corruption & improved efficiency
@@hardik.rathod.7515 But the 10 yrs Governmental Favour violating Tender Rules for competitors multiplied Adani Ambani wealth in 10 yrs by several times
🙏
To all for this huge effort.
Harekrsna.
Excellent information from prof.R.V.and Sri Iyar.
Namascarams, always a great learning session from Retired Professor Viadyanathan Sir. He is blunt and straight forward with perfect timing of humour in each debate.
Very good sober presentation. UP however should bring in 10 seats. Sree Iyer was correct when he said that BJP got 61 in 2019.
Love this programme, this gentleman his own unique style....
Wonderful discussion. ❤❤
Thanks
Why only NRIs? I found that lots of people who are away from their hometown, that are not voting for the simple reason that it is too costly to go home just to vote. Also, it is not easy to move your Aadhaar and EC to your current location. Many people are just not sure of how long they will be working in the current company and when they will relocate. These are also things to be reviewed and streamed lined.
Valid point
Fact
Prof. RV is a great genuine 👏👏🙏✌️
My Analysis
Bjp 361 +
NDA 412+
Congress less tgan 30
Full Support Anna malai Ji
Excellent analysis.
State Reorganization issue mentioned by Prof RV is extremely serious and needs more discussion. He was in point.
I hope the centre starts thinking about it.
Prof RV apoears to be of old school.......2004 and 2024 scenarios are quite different.....no analogy whatsoever
Yes
Exactly my thoughts. He is out of touch and though his analysis is an honest and genuine effort, he is going to be proven wrong.
BJP will lose a few seats in Karnataka, but gain a few in TN. Those two cancel each other out. Then there will be gains in UP, Bihar and WB. Many of the other states will be just as strong as in 2019 (Gujarat, Rajasthan). The Ram Mandir goodwill will result in plenty of gains pan India.
So overall, the number will be better than 2019. Whether it will be beyond 350 / 400 etc is anyone’s guess.
It's always good to stay grounded and remember the history.
Prof is correct. We can't get complacent
Welcome professor
Very nice sir
Very insightful but dear me Mr RV this is pessimistic to the extreme even polling agencies which traditionally tend to be sympathetic to congress are giving 325 plus to bjp ram Mandir has been a game changer and a opposition which is all over the place the lowest total for NDA being given is 370 to 375 some others giving 400 plus
I totally agree with you . Mr RV doesn’t seem to be in favor of BJP when all polls are showing a fantastic number. It’s not the first time he spoke negatively. I watched several of his videos and they are full & lackluster. I am sure Sree Iyer will realise this as he may lose viewers in future
Real assessment sir.
Expect and wish a surprise number of seats for bjp in tamilnadu, fruitition of efforts of Annamalai and whirlwind tours of Sri Narendra modi. Heartful and best wishes to Annamalai and bjp🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Reasonable assessment.
Call JVC SREERAM ASAP.
Satya Sanatan Hindu Dharam ki Jai
I believe NDA will win 457+/- 5%❤
No NDA will win 543 & opposition Zero 😢😢😢😢😢😢😂😂😂😂
🙏
Namasthe🙏
Good analysis, thank you both
Our pleasure!
I guess, in AP and Telangana BJP will get more
Corruption can be rooted out if judiciary can be reformed. All Supreme Court judges should be dismissed immediately and sent to jail in Afghanistan to better understand the situation in Bharat.
Thank you Sree and the PGuru's team for yet another brilliant video. Prof.RV, as always, was honest, crisp, concise, and an absolute pleasure to listen to.
Shri is a Prefix & Iyer is a suffix....in between is there VACCUM...???😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
A pretty welcome suggestion to reorganize the nation into easily manageable administrative units unlike the earlier language based division!
We need administrative units of not over 5 to 10 Iakh people! So, Bharat could have anywhere upto 50 states! So, let us wait and see how things move when the whole country undergoes election restructure in 2026!
There seems to ba a lot of lag in Proffesors video and Audio.
I agree with Prof’s conservative approach and giving caution to BJP. BJP can’t rest on past laurels. Every election is new and fresh game., Just because you scored well and win a cricket match, it doesn’t mean you will next match. Like every match is new and fresh, due to weather and pitch conditions in the field, like every constituency has lot local issues , alliance nature, opponent strength and weakness viz viz bjp candidate, cash play etc. my own analysis I made some where in last year constituency by constituency is BJP. Can win 270 to 275 seats enough to form govt on its own. With NDA copartners they will have close to 289 to 290 seats. prof’s analysis going by the fact How bjp can do better than what they Have already Achieved in 2019. I also compared the last year seat tally and conservatively projected taking into account the current issues like Farmers protest in Haryana and western UP, CAA issue and polarisation of Muslim votes, UCC issues and Electoral bonds issue. Even conservative projection gives 270 seats for bjp alone. I am also taking into issues that there is no big opposition. Congress is weak and not able to announce candidates with confidence. They have just started their work. bJP is way ahead and has been campaigning heavily and strengthening their booth management everywhere exceptTN where they lack cadre. Congress is having a weak or no cadres and also money is an issue. Regional parties will spend only for themselves & not for congress. So since there is no strong opposition and no PM candidate, there is no good alternative to Modi. In fact BJP is using intelligence units in each constituency to do weekly surveys to ensure that corrective action is taken. This shows Modi and Amit Shah is taking atmost effort and not being complacent.
Professor knows the Ground Reality: but they are forced to read Someones Script & thus their brand Credibility & Goodwill is going to Dogs
Very good discussion, please keep it up and again,
pun ,fun in political scenario ,great view point
Professors network connection is very poor! 🤔😟
Professors BIASED PREJUDICED Love for Diabolic Communalism
So Prof. RV is also another of those jumping in like others he mentioned, to give his assessment with his own number crunching.
I was literally thinking where is Prof RV and he appears on PGurus. 😂 Pranam to Prof RV. 🙏
My conservative estimate is 390 for nda. The desire is 400 plus.
Very difficult as far as Kerala is concerned; no winnings....
RV is correct. Congress is out of power for 20 years and are now using all tactics. Their election pamplet in bangalore-rural is more regional than DMK. BJP should be more vigilant.
Sree Iyer: India has the same highway numbering system, except that the Indian system is the reverse - ie, odd numbers running N-S and even numbers running E-W.
Sir, you are bringing speakers who will give conservative views...please go and see Hindi Heartland, WB & Odisha. It is Modi Modi everywhere. You speaker Sir is talking about the coalition govt by BJP. NOT AGREED AT ALL SIR
Rambling Rose!
Sir vidco pic pblm
Hi Iyer Sir, greetings from Nainital, What is the structure in your background? Looks very interesting
dont worry, combined AP is giving 10 seats easily
I agree that road infrastructure is crucial, but it's essential to complement it with alternative transportation options. Simply adding more lanes to highways doesn't alleviate traffic congestion. A nation needs diverse modes of transportation to reach the same destination. Therefore, my hope lies in developing roads alongside interstate and intrastate alternative transportation systems. Thank you.
it is becoming a lecture rather than involved discussion unlike PGuru's normal episodes. please
Sir in UP, BJP will get more thn 63, Jharkhand more seats for sure, in WB and Tamilnadu more, 2/3 in Andhra, more seats in Telengana and few in Kerla
Anna malai Ji 💯 present Win
I don't understand the logic behind the professor's conclusion that the BJP will not improve its position in states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.
Tamil politics needs to change drastically and only the voters in the state can do something about this
Why NRIs-- even voters working outside their homes, cant wait. Why there cant be e mail voting?
Always prof RV has great research and information. Great discussion
Better you call BHAU TORSEKAR. He has logical explaination for 350 seats for BJP. Call him on PGURUS.
Yes. His hindi is good, for all
I've said the same. 👍
It is perplexing to see that even in some pockets of Bengaluru South constituency, voters do not know the difference between the State Assembly Elections and Federal Parliament Elections. If you watch many public interviews by journalists, the responses from voters are literally shocking, ie. holding the Central Government responsible for the failures of the State Government.
Such levels of ignorance, could skew the voting patterns elsewhere in the State, though not in Bengaluru South, and have an impact on the election outcome. Communication is critical and messaging must be simple and easily understood by not so well educated voters who form a significant proportion of electorate.
His ideas look mine, most of the time I am sharing same views. 2 days back I wrote about summer, instead of delaying by 2 weeks it shud hv been pre poned by 7-10 days. There will be a heat wave ( loo) in northern and middle class remain inside their house in comfort of air conditioner. Poor on the other hand rush to polling station in early morning as soon as the polling open. This I can tell as I have done election duties in the last 20 years.
Shri ji, please get Bhau Torsekar on your channel. His analysis on Modi in 2013 (before even Modi was announced as a PM candidate) and 2019 has come true. He's analysis for 2024 is between 325 to 350 BJP alone. See his explaination.
Season for Nomenclature of persons talking politics. Including now Political Consultant with original profession of an advocate.
I am told he was known as Prof.Vaidhy in IIMB circles.
Where is Sriram Seshadri ?
Thanks for concern 300 means full majority
Not only press even in Madras high court also working like dmk binaami court.
Sir
I think something is wrong with Prof RVs transmission and also suggest team Pgurus to improvise the equipment to transmit 4K and UHD for better viewer experience. Please sir
Instead of statewise Voters' List there should be only one All India Voters' List so that a voter can vote anywhere in India instead of going to the place where his name is included.
Very cautious Professor RV today…..😳
What about west Bengal
Sir other three south states sympaty towards Bjp now tamil nadu thank ful annamali
Please make a video on the why maximum corruption in South side than anywhere else.
Most realistic analysis without getting carried away by sentiments and emotion.If BJP crosses 290 itself will be a monumental achievement.They did wrong by breaking Sharad Pawar party which has caused distaste among the Marathas.I mean why BJP is always trying to bring down the opposition government and themmry to form their own minority government???How is it different from the usage of 356 by erstwhile Congress??
நரேந்திர மோடியின் ரசிகராக இருப்பதற்கும், அவரது அரசியல் அதிகாரம் மற்றும் விருப்பத்தைத் தவிர்த்து அவருக்கு ஆதரவாக இருப்பதற்கும் பல காரணங்கள் உள்ளன
1. முதலாவதாக, இந்த தலைவரை ஒருபோதும் கிழிந்த ஆடையிலோ, கலைந்த தலைமுடியிலோ, குழப்பமான சூழ்நிலையிலோ காண முடியாது!
2. நரேந்திர மோடியின் உடல் மொழி மிகவும் செல்வாக்கு செலுத்துகிறது.
அவரது நடையில் ஆண்மை நிறைந்திருக்கிறது.
3. காவி உடையில் துறவி போலவும், ராணுவ உடையில் சிப்பாய் போலவும், சாதாரண அன்றாட உடையில் தெய்வீக இளவரசன் போலவும் காட்சியளிக்கிறார்.
4. தேசபக்தி என்பது அவரது சுவாசம் மற்றும் ஒழுக்கம். அது அவரது இரத்த வகையும் ஆகும்.
5. உலகின் எந்தப் பெரிய ஆளுமையோடு நின்றாலும் அவரது திறமை கூடும். மற்ற திறமைகள் அவர் முன் குரைவாக தெரிகிறது.
6. தேர்தலுக்கு முன் சாத்தியமற்றதாக தோன்றிய பல வாக்குறுதிகளை நிறைவேற்றிய வேறு எந்த தலைவரையும் நாம் கடந்த காலங்களில் பார்த்ததில்லை.
7. நாட்டின் உச்சியில் இருந்தாலும், அவர் தனது குடும்பத்திற்கு உதவி எதையும் செய்வதில்லை. அவருடைய உடன்பிறந்தவர்கள் அவரைச் சுற்றிப் பார்க்க முடிவதே இல்லை.
இல்லவே இல்லை.
8 அவர் ஒரு போதும் விடுமுறை எடுப்பதில்லை.
9. அவருக்கு உடம்பு என்றுமே சரியில்லாமல் போனதில்லை. கழுத்தில், தலையில் மஃப்ளர் கட்டி, தொண்டை இருகி இருமியது என்பதெல்லாம் அவரிடம் யாரும் பார்த்ததில்லை.
10. எவ்வளவு பேச வேண்டும், எப்போது அமைதியாக இருக்க வேண்டும் என்பது அவருக்குத் தெரியும்.
11. இத்தனை பிஸிகளுக்கு மத்தியிலும் அவர் சோர்ந்து போய் யாரும் பார்த்ததில்லை. , நகைச்சுவை உணர்வு அற்புதம்.
12. அவரது பேச்சு கூர்மையாகவும், ஒப்பற்றதாகவும் இருக்கும்.
மொழியின் சரளமும் வெளிப்பாட்டிற்கு சிறந்தது. இவர் கவிஞரும் கூட.
13. எதிரிகளின் ஏமாற்று அல்லது சவால்களுக்கு அவர் ஒருபோதும் பயப்படுவதில்லை.
14. அவர் எதிரிகள் அல்லது குற்றம் சாட்டப்பட்டவர்களின் முட்டாள்தனங்களுக்கு பதிலளிப்பதில் தனது நேரத்தை வீணாக்குவதில்லை, ஆனால் முழு இராஜதந்திரத்துடன் தனது கடமைக்கு விசுவாசமாக இருக்கிறார்.
15. ஆரோக்கியம், பாரம்பரியம் மற்றும் நேர்மை ஆகிய முக்குணங்களின் சங்கமமாக அவர் உள்ளார்.
16 சரியான தீர்ப்பு மட்டுமல்ல, அவருடைய விழிப்புணர்வும் அர்ப்பணிப்பும் மிகவும் கவனிக்கத்தக்கவை.
17. அவரது ஆளுமை இந்து கலாச்சாரத்தின் புனித சின்னமாக தெரிகிறது.
18. அவரது கண்களில் உள்ள குணாதிசயங்கள் அவரை ஒரு ஹிப்னாடிஸ்டாக மாற்றும் அளவுக்கு சக்தி வாய்ந்தது.
19. இந்த மனிதனுக்கு எந்த சலனமும் இல்லை, பயமும் இல்லை.
சுயநலம் அவருக்கு முக்கியமில்லை
20. கடைசியாக, 73, வயதில் கூட, இந்த மனிதர் ஒரு நாளைக்கு 15 முதல் 20 மணிநேரம் வேலை செய்கிறார், ஆனால் அவர் கொட்டாவி விடுவதை நாங்கள் பார்த்ததில்லை!
*இந்த கட்டுரைக்கு நீங்கள் கடமைப்பட்டிருந்தால், உங்கள் பிரதமர் தனது பொறுப்புகளை சரியாக நிறைவேற்றுகிறார் என்று நீங்கள் உணர்ந்தால், இந்த செய்தியை உங்கள் நலம் விரும்புவோருக்கும், குறிப்பாக லோக்கல் மாண்புமிகுவின் நலம் விரும்புவோருக்கும் அனுப்பலாம்.
I'm with prof......small correction...in Mysore, the sitting member was not given a ticket because he wasn't popular with his own party cadre in Mysore.
Karnataka will give 18 -20 seats to bjp.
They'lllose some, win some new seats and get about285 to 305/310,
Ano
Why no action taken on Electrol Bond scam, PM Cares Fund scam, 7 lakh crore scam pointed out in CAG report.
My best wishes to BJP NDA & Annamalai 'sTN😊👍 Vande Mataram 🚩🚩🙏🙏
Telangana
How long people roam on bail. Won't the. CBI, ED OR Courts review the pending bails and pursue the cases further? I think BJP is a kind party if the accused surrenders he will not be pursued further.
What makes you think that way? ED /CBI are working in tandem if the accused gets bail in ED the CBI immediately arrests and vice versa then there's the economic offences wing. With NIA joining these investigations since foreign funds are involved bail is given strategically. Think about it.
My prediction:-
NDA - 355 (±10);
BJP - 310 (±10);
INDI Alliance - 140 (±10);
Congress - 50 (±5).
Where is M.R.Venkatesh nowadays
In 19 BJP won 63 seats in up
In Up in 19
BJP 62
Apna Dal 2
SP 5
BSP 10
Congress 1
We would like to see Modi as opposition leader Amithshaw Dy
Any likely impact of Subramanian Swamy on TN results ?
Power corrupts. Applies to PM and BJP too.
Pls correct in UP Last time it was 65 in 2019
15 seats for them
In my opinion NDA will form govt but 400 is a long dream. I expect 350 to 370 for NDA. Because NDA may not get that much in karnataka & Maharashtra. I feel Bjp cadre is complacent and totally dependent on modiji s charishma. If it is 400+ I will be the happiest but unknown dissidence may effect the result.
This election is for modi… definitely they will reach 400 plus on the other hand there is no pm face in dotted alliance
He is realistic in Karnataka.. Yeddi and gang spoiling candidate selection.. He may be blunt but correct..
But we as RSS members know past all laziness was responsible for 2004 ...Atal was half congressi Adwani is Sindhi means gentleman
Modi G is teleleee means he will eat mosquito when it is in oil ....Modi Shah are Allert ....both are working hard ....easly get majority means 279 seats
Why election commission is not taking action for distributing money