Looking at the last 5 winners (Ballyburn, impairre et passé,Bob Olinger, Sir Gerhard and Envoi Allen) They all won the race in spectacular fashion with a definite Wow factor. I just don’t see that in Jasmin De Vaux, and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not even Willies No.1 for this race (My pocket hopes it’s Kopek Des Bordes 😂)
Yeah I hear you. I’m hoping this will be his race though and he’s one I’m happy to have on board even if he’s not the first string as Willie often sends more than one at each race doesn’t he
@ Yeah it’s definitely JDV’s race and will be a player in it. I think Willie had the first 5 home in the race this year so there’s no worries about him running a ‘few’ in it
Times change though. Willie's one I'm interested in just now is Ballygunner Castle who almost got cleaned out 3 times by the loose horse in his maiden and still won, but again he doesn't necessarily look like he's going to win going away and look special. Just looks to have maturity way beyond a novice, battling qualities and expect he'll be suited by the trip. I do see your point though in that we possibly haven't seen the spectacular looking novice yet this season. Kilgame for De Bromhead has an entry this week and one over Christmas and looks like one whose French form may stack up quite nicely. Kainsbourg for Gordon Elliott is another we're yet to see who's come over from France with potential, and of course Karoline Banbou but she almost certainly ends up in the Mares novice.
In regard to the novice chasers I can’t believe 12/1 is still available for The Jukebox Man. That round of jumping at Newbury first time over fences was breath taking. Unlucky to not of won the Bartlett last season (ahead of Dancing City) who’s much shorter. The race after at aintree completely fell apart they all walked home. Defo see him dominating over here this season and contracting in price, can he beat Ballyburn tho? We’ll see.
He was the one I almost put up in this week too. The entry for Majborough put me off a bit too as if he debuts at 2m Ballybhrn looks more like browns horse don’t he Pauling also said recently he would mind staying at the middle trip but sure the only race for him on March is the brown isn’t it
I thought that also (JBM 12/1) still seems big and have been slotting him in a few accas... Only by night(Mares chase also 12/1 ) seems a tad on the large side also... A bit of value around if you take a good look.
Great video and reasoning as always! Thoughts on James gate today? Thought he looked brilliant, and the time compared to the following race, carrying 1’1 more, is he a potential forgotten horse considering he was third in a champion bumper?
Yeah I do like him but second season novice hurdler turning 8 probably meant today was the time to catch him but depends on what sort of mark he gets as he’s already notched up 3 runs. Suppose you have to wonder is he a horse they can point and shoot for a handicap though with his clear issues over time. Good horse though
If I was you I'd focus on more solid selections at this stage. Protektorat 25-1 Ryanair each way is more solid than any novice hurdler at this point. Especially if you're only tipping up one or two each month.
Yeah I do hear you, but this far out with injuries and unknown ground I never like tying up money EW. Was a slowly run Ryanair I think and a fast one might catch him out, always a race that cuts up in the market though I’m still sore from his effort in the Grade 2 this Sunday Best of luck mate
@@Cheltmental Yeah each way is tricky (I get that point), although 25-1 (2-1 a place) is about the marker for it being value this far out IMO - Obviously betting antepost is mostly about beating SP by as far as possible, so guessing on ground and how races might be ran this far out is probably over thinking it. I though he ran well, which is why the 25-1 is value, as they ran at a dawdle and the winner was given too much rope by Skelton. Not to mention I think the horse hated being held up. He looked really good after the last and beyond the finishing line, once he got motoring. Think he retains his ability thats for sure.
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Had him more of a supreme type Dave and maybe not classy enough for a Ballymore good luck with it
Yeah hopefully learn alot more next time out
Cheers Dave. I’m convinced the 88/1 I got on el fabiolo (Ryanair) and Dinoblue (mares chase) gonna make me rich come march
I’ll keep everything crossed for you 👊🏻
Looking at the last 5 winners (Ballyburn, impairre et passé,Bob Olinger, Sir Gerhard and Envoi Allen) They all won the race in spectacular fashion with a definite Wow factor. I just don’t see that in Jasmin De Vaux, and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not even Willies No.1 for this race (My pocket hopes it’s Kopek Des Bordes 😂)
Yeah I hear you. I’m hoping this will be his race though and he’s one I’m happy to have on board even if he’s not the first string as Willie often sends more than one at each race doesn’t he
@ Yeah it’s definitely JDV’s race and will be a player in it. I think Willie had the first 5 home in the race this year so there’s no worries about him running a ‘few’ in it
Times change though. Willie's one I'm interested in just now is Ballygunner Castle who almost got cleaned out 3 times by the loose horse in his maiden and still won, but again he doesn't necessarily look like he's going to win going away and look special. Just looks to have maturity way beyond a novice, battling qualities and expect he'll be suited by the trip.
I do see your point though in that we possibly haven't seen the spectacular looking novice yet this season. Kilgame for De Bromhead has an entry this week and one over Christmas and looks like one whose French form may stack up quite nicely. Kainsbourg for Gordon Elliott is another we're yet to see who's come over from France with potential, and of course Karoline Banbou but she almost certainly ends up in the Mares novice.
In regard to the novice chasers I can’t believe 12/1 is still available for The Jukebox Man. That round of jumping at Newbury first time over fences was breath taking. Unlucky to not of won the Bartlett last season (ahead of Dancing City) who’s much shorter. The race after at aintree completely fell apart they all walked home. Defo see him dominating over here this season and contracting in price, can he beat Ballyburn tho? We’ll see.
He was the one I almost put up in this week too. The entry for Majborough put me off a bit too as if he debuts at 2m Ballybhrn looks more like browns horse don’t he
Pauling also said recently he would mind staying at the middle trip but sure the only race for him on March is the brown isn’t it
I thought that also (JBM 12/1) still seems big and have been slotting him in a few accas...
Only by night(Mares chase also 12/1 ) seems a tad on the large side also...
A bit of value around if you take a good look.
Best of luck Dave, but i think ante post bets thus far have been nothing short of horrific man 😂
Brutal, we’ll find out in March eh!
Afternoon Dave x
Great video and reasoning as always!
Thoughts on James gate today? Thought he looked brilliant, and the time compared to the following race, carrying 1’1 more, is he a potential forgotten horse considering he was third in a champion bumper?
Yeah I do like him but second season novice hurdler turning 8 probably meant today was the time to catch him but depends on what sort of mark he gets as he’s already notched up 3 runs. Suppose you have to wonder is he a horse they can point and shoot for a handicap though with his clear issues over time. Good horse though
Yeah I get you, your probably right to be fair. Appreciate the insight
No worries, all opinions isn’t it, get plenty wrong though so don’t let it influence you too far if you’ve got that gut feeling
@@Tipsterinasuit I’ve got my eye on him for the Coral Cup
Good shout that
If I was you I'd focus on more solid selections at this stage. Protektorat 25-1 Ryanair each way is more solid than any novice hurdler at this point. Especially if you're only tipping up one or two each month.
Yeah I do hear you, but this far out with injuries and unknown ground I never like tying up money EW.
Was a slowly run Ryanair I think and a fast one might catch him out, always a race that cuts up in the market though I’m still sore from his effort in the Grade 2 this Sunday
Best of luck mate
@@Cheltmental Yeah each way is tricky (I get that point), although 25-1 (2-1 a place) is about the marker for it being value this far out IMO - Obviously betting antepost is mostly about beating SP by as far as possible, so guessing on ground and how races might be ran this far out is probably over thinking it.
I though he ran well, which is why the 25-1 is value, as they ran at a dawdle and the winner was given too much rope by Skelton. Not to mention I think the horse hated being held up. He looked really good after the last and beyond the finishing line, once he got motoring. Think he retains his ability thats for sure.
Grey dawning will be going ryanair i reckon, has no chance in a gold cup.
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