Nouriel Roubini Sees Global Debt Trap Driving Inflation
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ต.ค. 2024
- Sep.21 -- Nouriel Roubini, CEO at Roubini Macroassociates, discusses the impact of global fiscal and central bank policy on inflation, economic growth, and inequality. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
Smartest thing ever said on Bloomberg. The only person that really knows what’s going on .
Is Roubini 3ft tall or is the other guy 8ft tall?? Lol
He certainly nailed Bitcoin 😅
@@Michael-qy1jz the latter
@@Michael-qy1jz Other guy 4 ft around also
@@Michael-qy1jz I have seen the big guy in real life. He is a very big person.
Nouriel Roubini is spot on. It just makes sense.
no it doesn't
he's been dead wrong on everything like a clockwork for more than a decade
@@RIPHitchens youre very delusionary. you think hes wrong as the debt bubble is increasing.
I like that Bloomberg is now doing interviews outdoor with a really beautiful scenery and hearing some birds chirping. Thank you for this.
Really? That's what you care about? Go back to sleep please.
@Silver Fortress I agree! It was a gloomy topic but an incredible setting
That's a doom alarm not a bird
personally i hate birds chirping
@1:50 Debt Supercycle / Debt Trap: the only way to 'normalize' debt ratios and interest rates is to let inflation take care of it, since actual rational economic policy is politically impossible to enact
Exactly. We are past the point of no return now. The deflationary bust would cause sovereign default and last for a decade. Inflate away the value of the debt likely in a few large spikes is their only play. Because of the corruption that will likely be involved in the process have have hidden most of my savings in gold and some silver. Totally out of the system. It's not about getting rich, but staying under the radar of theft by Government. I'm taking cover and hoping I'm wrong.
well said.
Its like Gandalf talking to a hobbit.
Hahaha
first thing I thought!!!!!!! xD i was wondering the first two seconds if it was a matter of camera angle
but nop
Hahahahahhahahahahahaha
The fact that Tom called the central bank the social guide of last resort is mind boggling to me
It's because Powell's argument for continuing stimulus is that wealth inequality, racial inequality, and other ESG issue still aren't solved. While everyone is screaming at Powell, "that's not your job to fix. STOP PRINTING!!!"
@@TheM0joDoj0 Umm, no. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. You may want to sit this one out
@@smb2265 how arrogant and rude you are
@@a13xdunlop It's not arrogance, it's common sense and an understanding of monetary policy
Roubini looks at the worst case scenario and makes it his base case. The hall mark of a great risk manager. He's not a pessimist; he is a hard core, detailed realist. Contrary to what many think, he is not recommending that we may as well all lay down and die. He is encouraging governments, central banks, corporates, investors and workers to make the best possible strategic and tactical decisions in a dystopian environment - to find ways to optimise income streams and other returns, given the new economic and geo-political configurations.
If there is a long list of things to do, which must be done just right, by a lot of different people and govt's, chances are it won't be done. There is a default scenario for not doing much or doing right, it's good old fashion inflation. It's already here even if you hate it, AND IT's doing it work of 1. reducing real debt 2. discourage the growth of new debt.
the interviewer looks huge compared to Roubini
Met him once, he really is huge lol
Inflation will be exacerbated by China's aging demography. Commoditized cheap goods coming from China won't be cheap anymore, as China's blue-collar workers are aging and ailing fast.
The CCP can always just kill them though.
Also China is cutting emissions, that will drive commodities like steel and aluminium upwards.
India is going to step in and replace china
@@OG_Jin_Bling Not nearly as fast as the US does, with Covid.
@@nonyabizness997 Not nearly as fast as the CCP does with lab leaks.
@5:45 stagflation scenario - trends that kept inflation low for last 40 years are all reversing
It seems the bill is coming due to the level of debt released by such low interest rates
Roubini sees the reality but the process is perfectly timed for the next phase anyway. China has entered a dance and the USA, I don't know how, is in the correct cycle to enter the dance as well!! A real incredible time in history unfolds in front of our eyes.
Been watching Roubini since I was in college in 2011 - he has been calling for an "epic crash" across all asset classes since 2011, and every single year since then he "calls the top" and warns us. He's been wrong. All I'm saying is look at someone's track record of predictions before you decide how seriously to take them.
@@pirate9154 Call the top enough times and eventually you will be right. Go look up his interviews from 2011, he was saying the same thing. Or any year really.
@@pirate9154 like a stopped clock. but in march 2020 he predicted a big crash i think on Bloomberg tv. hope you didn't sell your stocks then!
Bears have called 30 out of the last three recessions
Predicting an expiry date or incumbent annihilation is always sublime
Like Peter Shiff calling buying a bad investment in 2011
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson
This guy is a living legend. One of the best world economist.
The game is who gets to borrow and consume wealth that they don’t have to pay back. One way to do this is to transfer responsibility for paying back the debt to the government. When government debt becomes too high, central banks keep real interest rates negative so governments don’t have to repay either. At this point cash and fixed income is nothing more than a tax on the wealth of savers that subsidizes real asset holders / governments.
What do you think about Bitcoin?
its a tax on stupid people that don't invest 😁
financial repression with crony capitalism ... privatize profits and socialise debt.
Did John just call Nouriel Roubini "buddy" on air? LOL!
Well articulated Dr Roubini, thank you. I think worker unions will not allow wages to trail inflation by too much....
We are exactly where the math takes you. The fiat debt ponzi must expand or the entire financial system collapses. Use money, an honest store of value and the fundamental driving problem ends.
Bingo
Yea that won't exactly build your credit. It sounds nice though.
"An honest store of value...." Dey ain't no such t'ing. All values are relative to one another, none are absolute. All value depends on the foibles of human desire.
@@christianlibertarian5488 that’s pretty much as good as it gets, which is WAY better then now where a handful of unelected manipulate the market so ZERO honest (albeit foible‘d) price discovery can occur. We have a command economy with price controls that has been hidden but will rapidly come into view. I bet UK, France and others publicly demand price controls, you know to curb the inflation the hidden price controls created.
@@kanscopeichel491 Bing bing bing bing bing! We have a winner! Absolutely right on the spot.
INTERVIEWER INTERRUPTS TO A SIGNIFICANTLY ANNOYING DEGREE.
CNBC culture, I think
@@georgegao1202 bloomberg
Wise people listen, they don't interrupt.
This guy does that EVERY TIME !
So irritating !
Thank you Captain Hindsight .
Nouriel Roubini- excellent!
Does it matter that all countries have the same level of debt? Also we seem to be in a situation where the central banks are so tied together that they can no longer act independantly. We have a global economy where we are more tied together than we ever have been before. I think the analysis has to take this into account.
Party,lesbian
i like him, he is always postive
Whahhahahahahahahahhaahahahaa
@@waliddahdal9928 these people like idiots mate, no wonder this country is in the current state, they believe dumb people are smart
a good question would have been... so how do you protect yourself in this type of economic environment?
diversification
BUY PHYSICAL SILVER BULLION
Silver bullion is at a 50% discount now !
If in the era of free flow of information, you still waiting for Roubini in Bloomberg to tell you to buy bitcoin to protect your wealth, well, don't hold your breath lol
So what's the solution? Kilo bricks of Gold?!
Last time we saw Dr. Doom was in 2018. They always bring him out when there is economic troubles.
For anyone saying that his predictions have been wrong for the last ten years, he's not predicting when it happens, merely observing and stating the obvious: that we've gone off the cliff. When we hit ground depends on how much gas is in the tank of the Fed's excavator, which, for the past twelve years, has been diligently digging away the ground that we shouldn't hit years ago. Not only delaying the inevitable but making the crash much much worse.
This genius advocated the policies that got us here.
But he always describes it so well. Like that is paramount.
@@vcoonrod That's the job of a good propaganda minister.
Beetcoin is Sheetcoin
So witch is it? Inflation, stagflation, crisis?
Looking now...he was spot on.
For me as an individual and a trader Debt & Inflation are Not my problems. it is high time we keep aside all the mentality of depts. A debtor is more like a slave to the lender.
Correct 🤝
but i don't think its absolutely wrong to borrow on emergency to solve your financial problems, you know i once had challenges trading and my only option was to borrow to booster my portfolio.
@@leximaddison8525 getting a loan to trade is very risky, what if you ends up losing it all?
it seems you are not well experienced in the business so why not get a financial consultant to trade for you or to manage your trade.
Judith Ann Santosuosso she is the professional handling my trade for now
search for her name if you wish to contact her.
most time getting loans helps but could be risky if the capital acquired is not well spent.
It needs a professional to trade for you.
damn bruh, time for the rich to pay taxes now that debt is high
No, central banks should not be a social mediator of any sort. Increase the rates, clean the system and lets just start from the beginning
they had that opportunity in '08, kicked the can down the road and now the situation is way worse.
Great interview, and thanks for giving Nouriel the chance to clearly explain his views.
There won't be a crash because the price of everything will just keep rising and so on paper everyone will be notionally better off, but no one will dare liquidate because they know they won't be able to afford much in terms of acquiring real, physical assets/resources should they decide to exit their position.
"Are we going to inflate our way out of our present challenges?" - yes, yes we are :)
Peter Schiff has been saying this for years, and still does twice a week on his podcast!
I know and tech stock just crash on opener. Geez I'm were is this inflation. In fact, I'd love to get more inflation right about now.
He is selling you gold...
@@MrPink1750 He's right to be, even though he hasn't sold me. That shouldn't discredit his whole analysis.
@@Putt89 I am just saying friend, there are more honest individuals one can listen to, who are not commercially compromised and trying to sell you gold..
@@MrPink1750 always open to hearing from new people
American Exceptionalism means America is exceptionally badly governed and has been throughout the postwar period.
Regardless, China is coming around to fix it for free of charge anyway. I think it is pretty amazing that China entered a trap and this was set the day China accepted to become the world's factory and the trap was triggered the day China decided to become greedy with this new found wealth and power under the command of President Xi. Now the trap is triggered, China has only 1 way out and that is to give up being the world's factory. USA in the meantime by luck or amazing timing, someone really really smart or a hand from above, is in a the correct cycle so that it too can go on a dance It is like a very well synchronized dance, it is just beautiful.
@@drscopeify I agree with you abt the EU, but I think the USSA is on a downward course as it becomes an authoritarian bureaucratic socialist workers paradise under one-party rule with state-controlled media.
Inflate our way out of debt? That is taxation of the poor and middle class without representation, is it not?
Yes and normally leads to extremism and political upheaval. Well it did the last time anyway
That's what naturally happens when you lose control of the fiscal side. To be fair, the spending side also is determined by representatives. If you choose to spend, you are choosing to fund it simultaneously, either through regular taxation, through debt, or, when you lose the ability to borrow, through higher inflation.
The interviewer is huge, probably over 6'5 foot at least.
Totally called it!
Basically what I take away from this is he thinks everyone should buy Bitcoin.
Also everyone should buy robot workers
Bitcoin
No everyone should buy Art and drugs!
Did John call Rubini “Buddy”??
1 year later, the same type of forecast still holds
Very smart guy. Also thank you Bloomberg for not being interruptive unlike that fool at CNBC Squawkbox.
So what do I do? There is only risk and relatively poor reward.
Wow that guy is like three times Nouriels size.
I would be scared :D
Looks like Gandalf talking to Frodo.
wtf, is Nouriel tiny or is Tom Keene huge? Or both?
That’s what inflation does to people… :-)
I was looking at the video thinking, is Tom Keene 7 feet tall lol?
Is the house of cards going to collapse or can we put on some more weight?
*Nice video❤️ very engaging from beginning to the end. People will be kicking themselves in regrets in few weeks if they miss the opportunity to buy and invest in Bitcoin*
It’s a pity that most people out there struggling through intense hardship and have ignored Bitcoin, were as bitcoin can uplift their financial status.
Bitcoin trading right now will be at every wise individuals list. In few minutes you’ll be ecstatic with the decision you made today
BITCOIN: IS THE ONLY TRUE DEMOCRACY EVER EXISTS IN THE WORLD
Crypto is the future, trading crypto has become a lucrative way of making massive income
Stocks are good but crypto is better and more Profitable
He was totally right
Excellent interview. Roubini is capable of making his points in such a condensed and understandable fashion :)
Desprate.people.does
Desprate.things.and.the
People.of.u.s.a.cannot
Stand.hard.ship.little
Money.to.buy.any.thing..
Eat.less.food.a.hungery
Belly.fustration.
I don't think energy prices will increase actually. I think renewables will in time make energy far, far cheaper than today. Otherwise this seems accurate to me
So “the shrinking of the workforce causes inflation” - but “AI and automization causes unemployment”.
Help me understand this.
when workers do not want to enter the workforce but businesses need employees, they increase wages to incentivize people to enter the workforce. its happening right now with covid.
AI & automization with end up automizing jobs, like trucking. this increases unemployment.
Make sense?
Maybe all jobs in the future will become "bullsh*t jobs". They're really a subterfuge for helicopter money though :). However, some folks do get life satisfaction from feeling they're doing something useful, so it's just a little white lie :)
Why don't we swap 'debt-trap diplomacy' with 'debt spiral' or the more appropriate 'fiscal death spiral' that is getting out of control, posting a major global risk
Epic! Truth!! This man is amazing 👍🏼🙏🏽🙌🏼❤️👏
I’m shorting the markets so I hope he is right
Peter Schiff is that u?
Well that’s encouraging let’s buy stocks
Hard to say whether Roubini is genuinely concerned or just fundamentally a bearish person.
All of this was predicted by Peter Schiff almost ten years ago!
and if you listened to him ten years ago and put your money in gold, you would have far less returns than those that BTFD & HODL'd. Stonks only go up :)
@@habibbialikafe339 Yes, that's all true. I'm guessing you're one of those gifted individuals who can 'time' the market. You my friend, are truly blessed.
@@haroldgodwinson832 nope, not at all. your the one trying to time the market and get out before it crashes. i been all in on ETF's, through thick and thin. and YES, my portfolio kills yours even though I put in no work and you stress all the time! wake up dude and bow down to tech and the american exceptionalism
So what do we do? If you have some money it is worthless and you will e taxed, if you invest it through leverage you screwed over by high interest, so do what?
I hope he doesn't eat him
All the first world nations are crushing the population with extremely low interest rates. Add to debt a global energy crisis so extreme China is experiencing rolling elect blackouts. This is going to further impact multiple supply chains, further impacting product availability, driving up costs even more.
Got gold?
For what?
This falls under the 'duh' category.
“are we going to inflate our way out of current problems?’. of course, it’s the politically appealing option for the time being. it has to be exhausted until there is a currency crisis or hyperinflation, or massive political upheaval before any other option is used.
It's insane how well this aged. Yes Roubinin is a permabear, but he has a nack for calling the worst crises and calling them extremely accurately in their scope.
Brilliant guy
He predicted central banks will wipe out debt through inflation. SPOT ON!
Will someone please to Nouriel Roubini to speak slower? He's a brilliant man, but much of his brilliance is lost on those of us who can't understand him, largely because of the speed with which he speaks. And to the interviewer, buy the guy's book. If it really means that much to you that it's your favorite of the year, at least have a copy to show us in your interview.
Set speed at 75% also works on Indians
They should switch glasses. :)
Is there a physical distortion in magnification between Roubini and the questioner, the latter appearing like a giant in comparison to his guest?
Yeah it’s crazy! Interviewer is either a giant or Roubini is dwarfish.
Some camera angle Foreground large back ground smaller. Another interview with Ray Diallo similar view.
What are we going to do with pensioners without inflation hedges?
Let them eat cake?
what was the name of Barry Eichengreen’s new book?
‘In Defense of Public Debt’
@@glassmuxxic thank you!!
BUY PHYSICAL SILVER AND GOLD BULLION !!!!
Put it in a private depository and wait !
I wish interviewers would pause to restate the point just made by the guest instead of playing monkey-mind and jumping to a non sequitur, it makes it very hard to digest the idea the guest is trying to convey, I see this non sequitur style a lot these days, the interviewer is not listening, just thinking about how to sound punchy and keep the audience on edge but not thinking about the idea that was just conveyed
Inflation will rise to the point that interest rates will have to increase to stop it. Where is Paul Volcker when you need him. Powell needs to grow a pair.
He’s been pessimistic since the last 10 years, eventually he’ll be right.
I gave you a thumbs up, but to be fair to Roubini, we didn't exactly deal with the 2008 crisis in a responsible fashion...we just kicked the can down the road. So in that context, him being doom and gloom for the last 10 years is appropriate since eventually the house of cards will come down, it's just a matter of when.
@@VinnieBoombatz374 I agree. Everybody is all over all these pessimists saying they've called 7 of the last 3 recessions and what not but just because the timeline is off does not mean the thesis is incorrect.
@@VinnieBoombatz374 Well said
The Problem Is that IT isnt realy about ecconomic forcasting,that would be easy!ITS about how the goverment will react!There are to much possabilities WE cant predict
What happens if US Bond goes to 4% can we pay? How long will fools buy our bonds. China has had enough.
That guy is how Roubini would look like in a bubble.
Economists are like fortune tellers that only charge $50 to give you the winning lottery numbers
Wonder ( date and year) when one of the “players “ will scream, KING IS NAKED.
I'm hopeful after watching this.
Oh boy was he right
Roubini is wrong. Today the private players have more leverage than States and no one wants to see their money disapearing under inflation.
The only solution possible is a great public project were privates can participate with their capital, something like a War .
Jesus Christ... now we have someone talking about fiscal dominance. So let me recap, top level economists are talking about fiscal dominance (Roubini), the risk of inflation followed by a tough landing (Summers), and no big concern, and a hedge against a depression (Krugman).
I thought the new consensus was that we were nowhere near the limit of debt.
Tom Keen is like so many liberal economists I have talked to. During the crisis he said we just had to add all of this debt and looked down on anyone who implied we should not. Now that it is here, he is implying with his questions that he thinks we will collapse under all this debt. Duh. You asked for it, we got it.
It’s ok. Everyone raise it and kick the can down the road . No issue
Roubini talks of slower growth, and also of rising real interest rates. This is a contradiction, because real interest rates are a proxy for growth expectations. If we have slow growth and high inflation, as he expects, then real interest rates would more likely stay low, while inflation expectations would drive up nominal interest rates.
why this interviewer always disrupt the guest
Damn big topics
It is not debt trap it is irelevant simply because it is revolvig credit scheme. Like every bank customer lots of debt and no money in the pocket.if you provide customer with new one he have liquidity.on contrary debt trap is deflationary simply because there is not new money in the economy.broken supply chains are different story and paying people not to work also.
FAIRYTALS ?
This guy has been wrong since the GFC and continues to be so. Why anyone gives him air time is beyond me.
He predicted everything except Ukraine war....!
Cyber warfare was kind of close
Which book on Debt is the Author recommending ?
The Creature from Jekyll Island
BRILLANT. EVERYONE SHOULD WATCH IT
this guy is always calling for a recession every year he says this. like for decades he does this. even a broken clock is right twice.
This isn't a problem if the whole globally economy collapses simultaneously.
is the interviewer a giant?
Hes fucking huge lol