The End of Credit Suisse

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ย. 2024
  • Another bank has seen it's reign come to an end, with the recent announcement of Credit Suisse's takeover by UBS. Let's talk about what it means for the banking sector.
    DISCLAIMER: Richard does not hold a position in any of the companies mentioned in this video. This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).

ความคิดเห็น • 846

  • @mjk6520
    @mjk6520 ปีที่แล้ว +832

    Credit Suisse going down is so sad, it's the largest washing machine in the world

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว +41

      They weren't all into money laundering... Although it seems like they were all involved in either something scetchy or high risk.

    • @dofehino5444
      @dofehino5444 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      theyll get another

    • @alberterrey-white1701
      @alberterrey-white1701 ปีที่แล้ว +29

      was probably the only thing propping it up

    • @anivicuno9473
      @anivicuno9473 ปีที่แล้ว +70

      Don't worry, The City of London is still around!

    • @sifridbassoon
      @sifridbassoon ปีที่แล้ว +5

      that reminds me of my favorite German tongue twister. I'll spare you the entire thing, but it starts "we Viennese washerwomen...."

  • @Kman21192
    @Kman21192 ปีที่แล้ว +468

    Not a Credit Suisse customer, but I do live in Switzerland and have many friends with CS accounts and/or who have worked there. A lot of people were scared about their deposits and were in lines to get their money out yesterday. Also one friend who worked at Credit Suisse for almost 20 years said he's not surprised in the slightest because literally every 18 months while working there, they had some kind of major restructuring or shake up in management and organization. The internal incentives towards their investment banking business were very rewarding towards big risk taking, with great access to borrow from or against other parts of the business to make big bets with very little consequences for when things went bad. Overall a horrible way to run a business.

    • @klobiforpresident2254
      @klobiforpresident2254 ปีที่แล้ว +23

      >restructuring every 18 months
      Not CS or investment banking but when I worked for a medium sized German bank we had department shuffles every other year. Lord, was it dumb.

    • @jamesc5751
      @jamesc5751 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      "friends with CS accounts". So... criminals?

    • @unconventionalideas5683
      @unconventionalideas5683 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@klobiforpresident2254 That might have been an anti-fraud mechanism? It does seem silly otherwise.

    • @AS-np3yq
      @AS-np3yq ปีที่แล้ว

      And their IT is shit.

    • @fabxr
      @fabxr ปีที่แล้ว +9

      My partner has an CS account and had an appointment at the local CS branch today. She said it was very busy. A lot of customers were there because they demanded to know what will happen to their accounts...

  • @janeestrada007
    @janeestrada007 ปีที่แล้ว +662

    Fantastic video, Bagel. I found your message to be thorough and well-balanced as a seasoned Swiss banker who currently resides in Switzerland. I also understood the underlying justification for why AT1 bond investors could be treated worse than equity holders. I didn't spend the time to thoroughly analyze the question because I don't invest in these kinds of instruments, but you answered a crucial legal query for me. I'm grateful.

    • @whatthestardust
      @whatthestardust ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @janecatlin Simply by pasting Maria Teresa Tyler into my browser, her website immediately displayed. You've spared me from doing a lot of tedious research, so thank you.

    • @vitamins-and-iron
      @vitamins-and-iron 9 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      i thought his name was richard

    • @ScarlettMaraxa
      @ScarlettMaraxa 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@vitamins-and-iron That is his name.

    • @vitamins-and-iron
      @vitamins-and-iron 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@ScarlettMaraxa i know that is his name

  • @ScottHess
    @ScottHess ปีที่แล้ว +20

    Sounds like this is what Buffett was referring to with “Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked.”

  • @M42KO
    @M42KO ปีที่แล้ว +918

    Credit Suisse was one of the worst-managed major banks in the world. As someone who works in consulting, I can tell you 90% of my colleagues would be ready to bet CS would be the first major bank to fail in the coming years due to mismanagement and shady practices.
    Also, keep in mind - EU is MUCH better/stricter at regulating banks and corporations (and even though Switzerland is not a member of the EU, its corporations in most cases need to follow the EU regulations to operate on its market). If this happened in the US, CS would simply lobby away its demise for another few years and drag many more investors/customers down with itself.

    • @matrix3509
      @matrix3509 ปีที่แล้ว +103

      People keep saying the EU is so strict and such, but tell that to the literal mountain of cash that's been laundered through Credit Suisse. It was literally the money laundering king of Europe.

    • @jimbojimbo6873
      @jimbojimbo6873 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      Your terrible recommendations were probably the reason they failed

    • @scottkirby5016
      @scottkirby5016 ปีที่แล้ว +45

      Duetsche does seem in race to the bottom with them. CS did make a breakout in the last two years though.

    • @mickwong6325
      @mickwong6325 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I have dealing with them. One of my clients

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว

      Lobbying is not a factor in banking regs, saying otherwise is castration worthy libel.

  • @Verpal
    @Verpal ปีที่แล้ว +276

    Credit Suisse had such a great run before 08, it feels like every management ever since try to either get back to historical high earning and/or ''turn the tide'' by doing stupid risky stuff, fall further, then do more risky stuff.

    • @scottkirby5016
      @scottkirby5016 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      I remember in 08 there was lots of speculation/pressure for CS to buy UBS (and the the Swiss National Bank) wanted to prevent a single megabank being why it didn't.

    • @benjaminfranklin329
      @benjaminfranklin329 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes money laundering and tax evasion are very lucrative industries... why couldn't they just keep doing that?😅

    • @041101213
      @041101213 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Lol it's a bank it has never been well managed

    • @ilovesuisse1
      @ilovesuisse1 ปีที่แล้ว

      Some of the CEO’s were foreign there, obviously not great managers.

    • @ilovesuisse1
      @ilovesuisse1 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      @@041101213 It’s over 160 years old, it was managed well before, it’s the last 15 years that weren’t good.

  • @denismcelligott4088
    @denismcelligott4088 ปีที่แล้ว +83

    I'm not surprised by what happened to CS. I worked for them and left almost two years ago. They were a hot mess then and things obviously got much worse since I left. I'm glad I got out when I did.

    • @arpetur
      @arpetur ปีที่แล้ว +8

      I left CS last year, just 4 months working in Compliance with them made me realize how bad things where managed from the simplest thing....

    • @themoodyteam
      @themoodyteam ปีที่แล้ว +7

      That ‘hot mess’ battled on for years. Then you left Denis and look what happened 😳 It’s all your fault!
      Seriously, I’m glad that you got out while you could and I hope that you’ve found more secure employment 👍

    • @unconventionalideas5683
      @unconventionalideas5683 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I think nobody who has been paying attention over the past few years is really surprised.

  • @cyclonasaurusrex1525
    @cyclonasaurusrex1525 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    Your words tell me I should stay calm. Your expressions tell me I should panic.

  • @zyansheep
    @zyansheep ปีที่แล้ว +894

    The Plain Bagle and Patrick Boyle are the best financial news channels hands down :)

    • @c0ttage
      @c0ttage ปีที่แล้ว +45

      and coffeezilla!!

    • @mangeshadbale4337
      @mangeshadbale4337 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      ​@@c0ttage obviously

    • @mzamilbr
      @mzamilbr ปีที่แล้ว +22

      Unfortunately Patrick made me fall asleep. Love his contents but …

    • @ChrisBrown-si1vg
      @ChrisBrown-si1vg ปีที่แล้ว +15

      TPB is great. Patrick Boyle makes good points most of the time, but he had one video championing trickle down economics so he has his faults.

    • @Jordan-Ramses
      @Jordan-Ramses ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I thought Patrick Boyle was a comedy channel. But it's hard to tell. It's always funny when rich idiots lose money. It's like when Brits cook. Always funny.

  • @petermelnikov682
    @petermelnikov682 ปีที่แล้ว +90

    I hope no one in the the CS top management got hurt and they will get their bonuses and golden parachutes for their outstanding performance :)

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว

      Golden parachutes only apply when execs get fired, and bonus are a cut of the profits. Right now, they all just want to keep their jobs through all these layoffs.

    • @JayJay5244
      @JayJay5244 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Yeah the bonuses have already been confirmed for all CS employees.

  • @Doopersteen
    @Doopersteen ปีที่แล้ว +22

    Dude I legit almost fell off my couch laughing when you said the WWE Smackdown line and cut to the clip. You are the best Richard. Please never stop slipping in those nuggets

    • @raggedcritical
      @raggedcritical ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Morning Brew compared it with Crocs, which was another good one.

  • @stevedes
    @stevedes ปีที่แล้ว +25

    Matt Levine wrote an entire piece about how the AT1 are considered equity from a regulatory perspective and were intended to be wiped out before stockholders. It seems like most investors did not read the fine print on those contracts (not even CS).

    • @dubuvore
      @dubuvore ปีที่แล้ว +1

      More bold print than fine print. Implied in the name of "Additional Tier 1" and explicitly stated in the docs... Weird how myopic investors can be sometimes. Seems they just assumed since it was labeled as a bond that it would have seniority over equity.

  • @astrodog2044
    @astrodog2044 ปีที่แล้ว +108

    I'll be honest, my whole life I thought it was Credit Susie. I've never heard anyone say it out loud until now.

    • @loldelol34w56436
      @loldelol34w56436 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      This is hilarious, thx

    • @fatweeb1545
      @fatweeb1545 ปีที่แล้ว +39

      Credit Sussy

    • @oar4866
      @oar4866 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Not the Credit Suissyy

    • @codethemonkey
      @codethemonkey ปีที่แล้ว

      oWo oh no credit sussy wusyy made a fucky wucky...
      sowwy all yo funds a gawn uwu

    • @arunt6659
      @arunt6659 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I too thought the same until recently lol

  • @ThatOtherRaccoon
    @ThatOtherRaccoon ปีที่แล้ว +122

    I love hearing different takes on this by financial channels.

    • @t74devkw
      @t74devkw ปีที่แล้ว +3

      What other financial channels do you follow?

    • @ThatOtherRaccoon
      @ThatOtherRaccoon ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@t74devkw ZipTrader, ClearValue Tax, Scott Schafer, How Money Works, and Patrick Boyle. Each one has a bit of a different take with similarities and all that jazz

  • @abdirahmanmahdi9458
    @abdirahmanmahdi9458 ปีที่แล้ว +33

    Problem is, the markets are never really rationale when they panic! If the reasons behind the fall of these large banks are their own mismanagement and scandals and all just happen to occur at the same time, its attributed to the banking sector as a whole! Hope this comes to an end soon.

  • @smjaiteh
    @smjaiteh ปีที่แล้ว +208

    Feeling worried about Credit Suisse being bought out is a bit like feeling bad that Lex Luthor lost all of his money due to overspending on anti-Superman weaponry and losing the faith and investments of his fellow supervillains.
    Honestly? Good.

  • @derfx89
    @derfx89 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    As a German resident of Switzerland, the developments over the last few years were really interesting to observe. UBS and Credit Suisse are outsize for a small country like Switzerland, but essential for the Swiss self-image as the world's business-friendly center for banking services. Now people are worried what's going to happen if a behemoth like "new UBS" is going to be in trouble, as it happened in 2008. Will it be too big to fail AND too much to handle for the government?
    But the writing was on the wall for a longer time. Some CS scandals were comically criminal, like getting private investigators to tail former execs after moving to UBS, all the money laundering, the list goes on. I do believe the current leadership team tried to clean house, but how many times can you convincingly claim THIS was the last scandal? At the same time, the bonus culture that was essentially "imported" from big US investment firms was completely out of control, billions and billions paid out while losses piled up. Now thousands of people will lose their job as part of the merger.

  • @answerman9933
    @answerman9933 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    "You won't have Credit Suisse to kick around anymore".

  • @jrmusickid
    @jrmusickid ปีที่แล้ว +5

    5:46 Matt Levine wrote today that CS’s AT1s are junior to common stock, and that was very clear in the terms.

  • @laxfreakm7
    @laxfreakm7 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    life is simple. Plain Bagel posts a video. I click. I learn. I like. Thanks!

  • @nicholasdean3467
    @nicholasdean3467 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    While it sucks there is so much uncertainty. The nice thing is my favorite finance channels are uploading so many more videos.

  • @kedo
    @kedo ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The Plain Bagle and Patrick Boyle are the best financial news channels hands down :)

  • @janmajdowski
    @janmajdowski ปีที่แล้ว +17

    I'm a doctor and I tried to learn some economy but it's impossible to me and my way of thinking. Whenever I hear some logical disquisition I start to have lots of questions by the way and nothing makes sense in the end. Luckily Your videos were thrown in front of me, and now more things make sense, now I understand more. Thank you for this.

    • @Cecil_Augus
      @Cecil_Augus ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You are a doctor in what? Where did you get your PhD from? Oh, wait, you don't have a PhD? So you are not a doctor.

    • @menjolno
      @menjolno ปีที่แล้ว +4

      ​@@Cecil_Augusit is pretty hypocritical to ask "literally who?" When you did not even reveal yourself

    • @jalander8817
      @jalander8817 ปีที่แล้ว

      Much more logical to take the most dangerous part of a “novel” virus and shoot that into people. 😬

    • @Ezio999Auditore
      @Ezio999Auditore ปีที่แล้ว

      That humble brag lmaooo You are a national traitor that’s what you are. What you have done to human beings in the last 2.5 years… Eternal damnatiom awaits you.

    • @zvxcvxcz
      @zvxcvxcz ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@Cecil_Augus ... you think an MD isn't a doctor? I have no idea what the OP's qualifications are, but your criteria for a doctor is pretty inaccurate.

  • @MikeydeLaraCovers
    @MikeydeLaraCovers ปีที่แล้ว +57

    So grateful for you. Simply explained and rationally analyzed. You are one of the three financial YT’ers I follow for that reason. FYI: the other two didn’t endorse FTX either. 🤣

    • @UnprofessionalProfessor
      @UnprofessionalProfessor ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Who are the other two?

    • @c.aresty
      @c.aresty ปีที่แล้ว +6

      You can't say that and then not shout out the other two! The people want to know.

    • @sameersadh6717
      @sameersadh6717 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      I'm guessing the other two are Patrick Boyle and How Money Works

  • @havyn88
    @havyn88 ปีที่แล้ว +68

    Bagel is trying to paint the situation as if the scandals and dubious practices are what brought down Credit Suisse, but failed to mention that the bank only got into trouble when they loss tonnes of their rich investor's money from bad investments. Shady activities don't matter if investors are making money, as evidenced by so many financial institutions.

    • @Cecil_Augus
      @Cecil_Augus ปีที่แล้ว +6

      This take on this one was really, really bad.

    • @havyn88
      @havyn88 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Cecil_Augus it's just the truth

  • @davidbiddle3257
    @davidbiddle3257 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I appreciate your level voice projection, it helps alleviate anxiety that others, doing the same as you, on TH-cam heighten.

  • @pablo-1139
    @pablo-1139 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    Great analysis and I like how you compared it to SVB - from a Swiss person!

  • @Hugo__IV
    @Hugo__IV ปีที่แล้ว +42

    As a historical economics nerd, I’m more sad that such an old and (formerly) reputable institution has fallen.

    • @himoffthequakeroatbox4320
      @himoffthequakeroatbox4320 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      You build a reputation by being cautious and boring, but inevitably some whizz-kid comes along who sees that gambling and cutting corners can lead to big profits and big bonuses. Only has to go wrong once.

    • @Cecil_Augus
      @Cecil_Augus ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Calling Credit Suisse reputable is like calling a drug trafficker honorable. Laughable.

    • @jalander8817
      @jalander8817 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      All things powerful eventually become degenerate. This is the long arch of history.

    • @jonpaul3868
      @jonpaul3868 ปีที่แล้ว

      Meanwhile, Japanese 1000+ years bathhouse..

  • @davidglad
    @davidglad ปีที่แล้ว +34

    Suisse's stockholders getting something (however little) and 17B of bonds meanwhile are made worthless as part of the deals means governments will keep changing the rules on what investors in banks will get for shouldering risk. Even CS indicated those AT1 bonds enjoyed priority over stockholders.

    • @volakha
      @volakha ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I'm pretty sure UBS pushed hard not to honour those contracts as a part of the merger knowing CS has no ground to stand on.

    • @sunnohh
      @sunnohh ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Your investors are free to agree to any stupid capital structure they are willing to agree to, they had prior notice…

    • @davidglad
      @davidglad ปีที่แล้ว +10

      @@sunnohh There's an insolvency process where these things are supposed to get worked out if a company runs into trouble. Stockholders getting paid ahead of *ANY* bondholders is unprecedented other than outright looting.

    • @zooml4959
      @zooml4959 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      this was literally written into the AT1s, they served their intended purpose lmao. am I supposed to give a shit and feel bad that investors didn't read the prospectus

    • @davidglad
      @davidglad ปีที่แล้ว +2

      ​@@volakha It was regulators/SNB that had the power to push. CS had the power to walk. Up until Friday, supposedly neither company wanted to merge. Perhaps you should read up on Long Term Capital Management of the "revolver" defense, which is similar to Lehman threatening bankruptcy and unleashing armageddon of the system if they cannot get satisfactory terms. Although in theory it is dumb to give a worse outcome for everyone, much like a prisoner's dilemma, the threat of an action can negotiate better terms. Thankfully I do not have a stake in any European banks and, emphasis on how governments keep changing the rules and definitions (including what a "bailout" is), it goes without saying only a speculator would be willing to own most bank stocks these days.

  • @michaelcohen1575
    @michaelcohen1575 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    A video explaining the debacle with the 'Coco' bonds would be helpful. How can common shareholders get preference over bondholders?

    • @seneca983
      @seneca983 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      That's basically how these particular bonds were structured. If they were senior to equity holders they wouldn't count as Tier 1 capital under Basel III rules. (Though I obviously haven't read the contracts for these specific bonds so I don't know if the Swiss regulator's decision falls within the stipulations of the contract.)

    • @danielcarrapa3632
      @danielcarrapa3632 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      That was purely a regulator decision. If they had not intervened those bonds would be converted to equity shares and the bond holders would become part of the buyout. I assume (don’t know for sure) that the AT1 bonds didn’t trigger their contingency because the regulators knew that shareholders included more pension funds and AT1 bond holders were other banks, and they wanted to spare those pension funds further losses…

    • @seneca983
      @seneca983 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@danielcarrapa3632 I don't think that's right. There are different kinds of AT1 bonds. Some get converted to stock whereas some are just wiped out when the contingency criteria are met. From what I've read, the AT1 bonds issued by Credit Suisse were of the type that get wiped out.

    • @danielcarrapa3632
      @danielcarrapa3632 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      I stand corrected. You are right. I have more experience with German banks CoCos and only now realized that the conditions of the Swiss ones stipulate a write down instead of convertibility.

  • @theprofessor4534
    @theprofessor4534 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    This is why I'm subscribed to this channel. Thank you for explaining this well. Kudos!

  • @VictorBrichaut
    @VictorBrichaut ปีที่แล้ว +5

    We keep hearing about Credit Suisse bad practices. Would you consider doing a quick video summarizing these? And how does this compare with other "shady banks" (HSBC?) ?
    Thanks for the content!

    • @jackjhmc820
      @jackjhmc820 ปีที่แล้ว

      most Hong Kong People support HSBC where Hong Kong is still the biggest profit segment like 50 % from Hong Kong alone? So no. HSBC is much more of a retail bank vs investment bank / private banking for credit Suisse

  • @J_Bravo
    @J_Bravo ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Wow!!! 1st time I've seen your channel! ❤❤❤ Breadth of freash air!🔥

  • @twotails
    @twotails ปีที่แล้ว +13

    I thought it was pronounced "Credit Sus" this whole time...

  • @ryan44662
    @ryan44662 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    You are fantastic at realistically breaking down these events for people outside of the finance world. Keep up the great work

  • @gedebagusbayupentium4550
    @gedebagusbayupentium4550 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    Thanks Richard for the sound analysis! quite hard for me to understand the situation as someone that's not familiar with the industry

  • @oskrm
    @oskrm ปีที่แล้ว +11

    We are indeed living in interesting times.

  • @SlashZer0
    @SlashZer0 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    That "be safe out there" signoff hit different this time.

  • @bc-guy852
    @bc-guy852 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    You provide such a great analysis in an easy to follow manner.
    Canada's version of Patrick Boyle! We'll have to get you a job lecturing at Western Bus School!
    Great job on this Richard - thanks!

  • @TriviaMania_
    @TriviaMania_ ปีที่แล้ว +3

    the WWE comparison caught me off-guard and my keyboard is now full of coffee

  • @madmaxsaturn
    @madmaxsaturn ปีที่แล้ว +2

    My father was hired by First Boston many years ago. First Boston needed help and Credit Suisse bought First Boston in 1988. He retired in 2002. I hope his pension is secure.

  • @iamcinmal5015
    @iamcinmal5015 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    How are these not the same scenarios that caused the 2007-08 recession? We’re seeing rounds of mass lay offs, we’re seeing the sudden and or slow death of banks, uncertainty in the financial markets, etc etc

    • @mellowInventor
      @mellowInventor ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Because declaring it as such is doomsaying.

  • @mikii2001
    @mikii2001 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Great content! In times like these what we need is a guy simply explaining stuff, without strong opinions and "recommendations".
    BTW I remember back in 2022 there was a rumor that CS was hiding the fact that it plummeted also due to exiting Russian market. I don't know how much of it is true, but I'm sure there were such gossips.

  • @Fate025
    @Fate025 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I've a friend who worked for almost a decade in our local branch of credit suisse, and she had always mentioned the bank was on rocky grounds, and with every year she stayed, she always wondered if it will be the last. (Whether due to retrenchment of bank collapse)

    • @ahmadnour7611
      @ahmadnour7611 ปีที่แล้ว

      Dude your friend works as a teller in a local branch. She has no idea of what goes on in their balance sheets or investing. She’s a minimum wage nobody 😂😂

  • @jinchoung
    @jinchoung ปีที่แล้ว +6

    you probably need more lighting on you. camera's aperture seems to be opening too large making shallow depth of field so that it can choose to focus on you or your logo but not both. it chose your logo.

  • @nixxnox
    @nixxnox ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I was a customer of CS for 5 years before switching back to UBS earlier this year. Glad I got out before this whole thing crumbled

  • @Papinka3900
    @Papinka3900 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    There seems a more general liquidity issue. Frequently stated that Americans have "excess savings". As that gets spent in an inflated economy, then that "excess savings" evaporates liquid assets. On top of that mortgages that aren't adjusting higher because they are thankfully fixed means the higher Fed rates impact short term borrowing and shrink the "excess savings" even faster. And when the savings are gone and bad short term debts from credit cards and credit lines start accruing.... well yea.

    • @maythesciencebewithyou
      @maythesciencebewithyou ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Americans aren't really known as having "excess savings". You usually hear that Americans live on credit, and having bunch of credit cards.

    • @himoffthequakeroatbox4320
      @himoffthequakeroatbox4320 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@maythesciencebewithyou The 1% do. They have more money than they know how to spend.

  • @arafat464
    @arafat464 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    I used to work at CS back in 2018. It was pathetic how terrible our tech infrastructure was. I worked in PB, and we ran the entire business off of a couple Microsoft excel sheets and a series of VBA macros. It was extremely inefficient and manual intensive. Our internal pricing system would freeze at least once a month. On those days, we wouldn't have updated prices on our assets, so we would have to look up prices manually on the BBG Terminal. I have a programming background, so I would try and convince senior management that our tech was holding us back. I couldn't get them to even conceive of a more streamline process. They didn't seem to understand that you should be writing programs for these processes to occur automatically rather than hire 10 people to copy paste stuff into xl sheets. What a joke. I stayed for a year, then left.

    • @sor3999
      @sor3999 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'm guessing "senior management" were very senior.

  • @michaelbroadwater115
    @michaelbroadwater115 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    AT1's are also SUPPOSED to be zeroed out (or converted) before equity becomes worthless, that's their whole purpose. I don't understand how these institutional portfolio managers didn't understand this very clearly laid out function of AT1'S before investing in them.

  • @IncredibleNotSophisticated
    @IncredibleNotSophisticated ปีที่แล้ว +3

    There is a mistake in this video: AT1 “bonds” are not bonds but a type of equity, see Mark Levines article on Bloomberg. The 3rd condition of AT1 for both CS and UBS is they can be liquidated to 0 if the bank drops too low in order to shore up the common stock.
    Common misunderstanding here

    • @karlsvazas5155
      @karlsvazas5155 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Exactly, nobody seems to read the prospectus. To be honest, the fact that AT1 bonds at other banks in Europe dropped after the CS happenings makes me think nobody is thinking seriously about this as a very real risk factor and gives me more concern than the whole CS situation.

  • @TheRealUnconnected
    @TheRealUnconnected ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Thank you for this balanced take on the situation. A close family relation has worked for CS/CSFB for many decades, and it’s been indirectly an important part of my life as a result.
    Few people rock up to work determined to do a bad job. There are a lot of great people there, and I hope they can find new success at UBS or another firm.

  • @f1aziz
    @f1aziz ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I think you should have gone over the fact that the Swiss government had to make to make changes to the regulations to let UBS take over Credit Suisse without getting the approval from the Credit Suisee shareholders. People stashed cash into Swiss banking because Swiss banks were known to be untouchables, this should make cash hoarders in Switzerland very jittery. Not to mention investors, looking at how screwed they are from all of this. I wonder how comfortable anyone would be to deposit or invest in Switzerland now.

  • @mikestanmore2614
    @mikestanmore2614 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    The loss of Debit Suisse will be deeply felt. This leaves just Deutsche Bank as the butt of future jokes.

  • @TAXie-ck7ed
    @TAXie-ck7ed ปีที่แล้ว +6

    The Credit Suisse execs responsible for this mess will still get paid handsomely to leave the company 🤬

    • @c0ttage
      @c0ttage ปีที่แล้ว +3

      failing upwards

  • @MrStarfishPrime
    @MrStarfishPrime ปีที่แล้ว +2

    You explained very well that CS was a train wreck going to happen because of poor management. I've heard many times in the industry the inaction of the finma and the snb to take control of the situation and start asking to disinvest the different business units and regions. But seemed here than finma acted with nationalistic views ignoring the alarms and not of thinking in behalf of the public good. The deal with UBS stinks as a cover up of Swiss banking practices.

  • @Tepalus
    @Tepalus ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I'm from Switzerland and well, we all saw it coming years ago. lol 🇨🇭

  • @NIL0S
    @NIL0S ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I'm Swiss, kind of shocked. Hope UBS brings some seriousity and stability to former Credit Suisse.

    • @Cecil_Augus
      @Cecil_Augus ปีที่แล้ว

      This virtue of "seriousity" is a fairy tale, dude. Something to appease reason, but with no basis in reality. This world isn't honorable. Wake, it's about time.

    • @unconventionalideas5683
      @unconventionalideas5683 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      We tend to say "Seriousness" in American English. I have not heard seriousity in British English, but maybe it is a thing.

  • @khoatran415
    @khoatran415 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    What a shitty bank. Glad that hot garbage is gone.

    • @Xehiudx
      @Xehiudx ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Tell that to all the hundreds of thousands of people who will loose their jobs cause companies lost their money.💀
      Some people really don’t get it you’re on the ship too

  • @leesziming3126
    @leesziming3126 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Deutsche bank *sweats nervously*

    • @sirrathersplendid4825
      @sirrathersplendid4825 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes. Are they next, I wonder?
      They have their tentacles just about everywhere: a collapse would have serious repercussions.

    • @leesziming3126
      @leesziming3126 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@sirrathersplendid4825 even though I brought it up, it isn’t something I really want to think about because I know how catastrophic it is going to be

  • @theTonyMa
    @theTonyMa ปีที่แล้ว +16

    Credit Suisse may be a frontrunner, but there are other strong contenders as well - what about Deutsche, HSBC, and Wells? They've all taken some big hits in recent years.

    • @Studeb
      @Studeb ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Funny, I listed the same banks too, in the same order, before scrolling down to see this comment. Great minds eh?

    • @liliyaversus4051
      @liliyaversus4051 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      one of the evolution tools are "bottlenecks", a time of struggle where only units with the "right" adaptations survive. So this might be similar, banks are supposed to die like any other entity somehow. But i don't know enough about economics and would love to hear a word about this from the Bagel c:

    • @matrix3509
      @matrix3509 ปีที่แล้ว

      What about them? None of these banks will be allowed to fail. The "money printer go brrr" thing is a tired meme at this point, but the governments of those banks' respective countries will literally print infinite money before allowing any of them to go under. Everyone knows this, the bank executives most of all. There is no amount of degenerate behavior these governments won't backstop with cash, no amount of willful negligence they won't rescue the banks from.

    • @kristiyandimov4605
      @kristiyandimov4605 ปีที่แล้ว

      If Deutsche Bank is the the next to fail, considering the credit default swaps are increasing in value then Europe is done.

    • @Confucius_Says...
      @Confucius_Says... ปีที่แล้ว

      Not well informed enough about Wells, but Deutsche and HSBC, definitely...

  • @Sam__2000
    @Sam__2000 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Love your content as always, would be interesting to see a video on the OTC derivative market and maybe Credit Suisse’s and other banks derivatives books. I have Learned so much from your rational grounded opinions.

  • @rairaur2234
    @rairaur2234 ปีที่แล้ว

    New sub here, m8, I *love* your regular "slight-pause, "awkward" giggle (don't know how to describe it better!)!! At this point I laugh each time when you do this, great light comedic element to the otherwise serious topics.
    Thanks and cheers! ❤

  • @skirmish23
    @skirmish23 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I’ve lost around 200 CHF of my speculative investment after I got in when the Saudis bought a huge chunk of CS.
    This taught me to never catch a falling knife again

  • @reidwallace4258
    @reidwallace4258 ปีที่แล้ว +37

    Anybody else ever notice that we are expected to save for a rainy day, keep a nest egg, and plan for the worst... but our global banking system can't plan for the end of clearly unsustainably low interest rates? Why do we let these clowns run our most volitile systems if we all know we will have to clean up their mess in ten years?

    • @TheModdedwarfare3
      @TheModdedwarfare3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      🤷‍♂️

    • @UnprofessionalProfessor
      @UnprofessionalProfessor ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Because they usually have access to money printer, and money printer go "brrr?"

    • @reidwallace4258
      @reidwallace4258 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@UnprofessionalProfessor I don't think that is it,not entirely, not really. I mean, these are the same chucklefucks that complain any time the government spends a red cent due to inflation, while at the same time ignoring any ramifications of fractional reserve banking... while standing on top of a house of cards... that will colapse and ruin them if the government stops printing money and raises the rates? They cause inflation, and then whine and doom say about inflation, knowing it will cause a rise in interest rates and a drop in investment... But they don't fucking protect themselves against said raise in rates?
      That isn't the money printer, that is dumb fuckers with too much power and money.

    • @joushua4428
      @joushua4428 ปีที่แล้ว

      Because there’s insurance that covers for them (if you’re in the US, different countries have different rules), and governments are likely to bail them out compared to investments or keeping money via alternative means

    • @klobiforpresident2254
      @klobiforpresident2254 ปีที่แล้ว

      Then WTF do you think Basel III is about, Mr Wallace?

  • @nocky2k
    @nocky2k ปีที่แล้ว +4

    friend I really love your content, but flashing those white papers after minutes of dark background kinda hurts fr

  • @merlingeikie
    @merlingeikie ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Nice work Mr.Bagel
    🕯️🇦🇺🙏

  • @ExcelTutorials1
    @ExcelTutorials1 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I love the context and the knowledge, very informative. Thank you so much!

  • @TheSpankerson
    @TheSpankerson ปีที่แล้ว

    I had to watch it five times. I think I get it now. Worth it!

  • @Loopy_McLooperson
    @Loopy_McLooperson ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I'm just going to miss Patrick Boyle's Debit Suisee jabs

  • @blueThumbnail
    @blueThumbnail ปีที่แล้ว +5

    You should do a video on HOW Credit Suisse got its scandalous reputation.

    • @klobiforpresident2254
      @klobiforpresident2254 ปีที่แล้ว

      The easiest explanation is that they got into *a lot* of scandals. No other way of putting it, really. Credit Suisse did everything from helping sanctioned persons launder money to facilitating tax fraud and regular fraud to boot.

    • @MrStarfishPrime
      @MrStarfishPrime ปีที่แล้ว

      There is a very good video on FT channel. "Credit Suisse: what next for the crisis-hit bank?"

  • @bideojames4222
    @bideojames4222 ปีที่แล้ว

    I read through both UBS and CS 20f's and boy oh boy what it looks like when a well run bank submits paperwork.

  • @mikodine
    @mikodine ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Richard, I don't understand something: if Credit Suisse was subject to more stringent regulation around interest rate hedging than SVB due to being a European bank and a systemic one at that, then how come the regulator did not see that coming? And how come Credit Suisse collapsed like a regional American bank?

    • @kingjames007
      @kingjames007 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      They did see it. It's all planned.

    • @rudysmith1552
      @rudysmith1552 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Because as much as Europeans like to boast about having the best regulations European bureaucrats are not some magical creatures who can’t get bribed by an extremely large bank with untold amounts of money. Dynamitsm was Europe strength not bureaucratic integrity.

    • @strategicconsensus
      @strategicconsensus ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Interest rate hedging wasn't CS's problem. With panic in the markets, everyone started looking for the weakest link - and a bank that had been making bad bets and staggering from scandal to scandal for the last 10 years or so fit the bill really well. CS had been on death watch for months now.

    • @MrStarfishPrime
      @MrStarfishPrime ปีที่แล้ว

      Because they are Swiss and very Swiss.

  • @off_mah_lawn2074
    @off_mah_lawn2074 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This video is so early, Plain Bagel didn’t even have time to focus his camera

  • @cades93041
    @cades93041 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    gov't should never let banks get this big and if they are they should be broken up.

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      That's silly. There's billions of people that need a banker and this industry favors economies of scale. I.E. Getting 10 times bigger means operating costs go up by less than 10 times. Ergo, you will always have a few banks that rise to dominate a given economy.

    • @zandaroos553
      @zandaroos553 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      @@samsonsoturian6013 Thank you, people who talk about “breaking up the big banks” need to read up more on the industry. Cross-ownership, ineffective enforcement of compliance procedures and poor implementation of risk management practices are much more important concerns than market concentration in the banking industry

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@zandaroos553 The whole reason regional banks face regulation is because they can't afford to hire an entire internal audit department in order to face the regs big banks face...

    • @AaronVanWolfen
      @AaronVanWolfen ปีที่แล้ว

      when your currency is dollar, your argument is right in most cases... when your currency is not dollar, is the opposite, you need to create big banks to support the national currency :))))
      recommend you to watch "princes of the yen"

  • @jeremiahreilly9739
    @jeremiahreilly9739 ปีที่แล้ว

    Swiss resident here. I bank at UBS. It has been obvious for decades that Credit Suisse's corporate actions were "questionable." Banks should be like Caesar's wife: Always above suspicion.

  • @jeroenano5759
    @jeroenano5759 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What is interesting that all banks did not have to start using their 'capital requirements' e.g. buffers. Regulators in both the US and Europe shut down or forced takeovers of banks that were in trouble. So even though we have made all these requirements a lot stricter after 2008, we did not want to see how it would play out.
    If this is the case, do these buffers help? Even if we 10x the capital requirements, if regulators intervene before the buffers have to be used it doesn't really matter how high the buffers are right?

  • @tipsyXtwo
    @tipsyXtwo ปีที่แล้ว +2

    “Credit Suisse Goes Down - Patrick Boyle Most Affected”

  • @EarnestWilliamsGeofferic
    @EarnestWilliamsGeofferic ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I love how the webcam is absolutely refusing to focus on Richard.

  • @brinistaco1970
    @brinistaco1970 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    thank you, what about the US banking system?

    • @samsonsoturian6013
      @samsonsoturian6013 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      What about it? Any sane bank was hedged against rising interest rates.

  • @johnvanhoven4099
    @johnvanhoven4099 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Not to mention those Bullet Swaps from Archegos... how are they gonna close those? UBS just ate a rotten calf, and now we're waiting to see if they're gonna throw it back up or die from infection.

  • @anhewsasking
    @anhewsasking ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Laughed out loud when the WWE moment happened. Now that's the appropriate quality and amount of humor I do accept in educational videos.
    Thank you for your work!

  • @ajrobbins368
    @ajrobbins368 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The internet proves the expression, "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing." People get one or two ideas and suddenly they have to shout their "truth" (opinion) from every rooftop.
    As if they "solved" economics, sociology, or political theory- if only the rest of us would read their TH-cam comment.

  • @iPondR
    @iPondR ปีที่แล้ว +1

    So relieved to hear that 'a less scandal prone bank' is taking over... we're all so much better off... right?

  • @tenny_tenten
    @tenny_tenten ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Credit Suisse, from a bank that started the Swiss railway network to a hell of controversies and mismangement leading to being acquired by UBS

  • @FameyFamous
    @FameyFamous ปีที่แล้ว +10

    In 2008, BofA, Chase, Barclays and other big banks got bigger. Today, UBS got bigger. I want a healthy industry where small banks can compete against the giant banks. As soon as the current crisis is over, governments and consumers must break up the giant banks and support the small banks.

    • @btfo420
      @btfo420 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Fat chance

    • @umiluv
      @umiluv ปีที่แล้ว +1

      It’s easier to control ppl with fewer banks.

    • @zandaroos553
      @zandaroos553 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Eh, the Western banking market is still incredibly diversified compared to other industries and other banking sectors. I wouldn’t say industry concentration in banking - especially investment banks is exactly a problem right now. Personally I think cross-ownership is a much bigger systemic risk

  • @nmccw3245
    @nmccw3245 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Guess I gotta get used to being a brand new UBS shareholder.

  • @Nala15-Artist
    @Nala15-Artist ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Capitalism can work if values beyond the balance sheet are taken into account and cared for. Customer goodwill, employee morale, careful management of resources. But we were given a system where only the buttom line is considered.

    • @raggedcritical
      @raggedcritical ปีที่แล้ว +1

      And for that you can "thank" Milton Friedman. You can also thank that clown for modern monetary policy.

    • @Nala15-Artist
      @Nala15-Artist ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@raggedcritical Yeaaaah. (I like to "thank" Reagan as well... at least for certain things in the US.)

  • @me0101001000
    @me0101001000 ปีที่แล้ว

    I hope Professor Aswath Damodaran goes into the really nitty gritty of this. On one hand, this isn't his area of expertise, so he may not cover it at all, but if he does, it would be very interesting to hear his thoughts.

  • @96moliveira
    @96moliveira ปีที่แล้ว

    Thanks man 🤝👏 great work.
    i find it really hard to believe that a bank this size could “ fail “ .
    It really puts things into perspective…

  • @TheBloodypete
    @TheBloodypete ปีที่แล้ว

    I love how the camera has decided your sign is the primary focus at the start of the video! :P

  • @juanmercado7706
    @juanmercado7706 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Banks are too Big, everything is to Big. The joule effect applies to everything

  • @erinsham4170
    @erinsham4170 ปีที่แล้ว

    As a staff at CS, I don’t know what to expect now

  • @grumioiscool6190
    @grumioiscool6190 ปีที่แล้ว

    Was just watching your old vid when you posted this, good timing

  • @jonessii
    @jonessii ปีที่แล้ว

    That's a nice Plain & Simple sign. Very sharp.

  • @Marshal_Dunnik
    @Marshal_Dunnik ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Step 1 Open bank
    Step 2 Make recklessly high risk/high reward investments
    Step 3 Profit
    Step 4 Lose it all on high risk/high reward investments
    Step 5 Bailout
    Step 6 Profit
    Step 7 Repeat Step 2

  • @zacharywills9535
    @zacharywills9535 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thanks for the video. Already seeing people predicting severe hyperinflation or severe deflation with economic downturns following. Nice to have an expert opinion add more perspective.

  • @bbrt2537
    @bbrt2537 ปีที่แล้ว

    CS sold my grandmother, who was suffering from dementia, complicated products that they did not understand themselves. Despite this not being great for the economy here in Switzerland, my Schadenfreude is at an ATH.

  • @Starzzyy-
    @Starzzyy- ปีที่แล้ว

    Wouldn’t wanna be holding those archegos swaps either. One of those heavily shorted companies has been revamped as well as had the liquidity removed due to shareholders

  • @dancekeb1308
    @dancekeb1308 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    6:47: "... which have deteriorated the value...": "deteriorate" is not a transitive verb (= does not take a direct object).

  • @mustafaaalmosawi
    @mustafaaalmosawi ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi Richard, would you please talk about credit unions in the United States in terms of exposure to such market woes?