Uranium's Issue, Copper's Abundance, Gold's Institutional Barriers | Michael Green Shatters Dreams
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
- Michael Green opens up about commodities, like #uranium, #gold, and #copper.
Michael told me what he likes and what he doesn’t like about the commodity thesis.
He also told me that he doesn’t believe money managers will ever go back to buying commodities the same way they did in the 1970’s.
We also talked about the impact of passive investing on the market, and how that ties into the commodities space.
According to Michael, the economy will face a recessionary "Hard Landing" in 2024, and the worsening demographics won’t help commodities’ case over the long run.
Michael’s X: / profplum99
Michael Green is the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial professional. Prior to his role at Simplify, he served as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Logica Capital Advisers, LLC.
Timestamps
00:00 recap
01:00 important warning
01:25 what just happened in macro?
14:15 aren’t worsening demographics bullish for copper?
20:50 are there still any opportunities in commodities?
23:20 what part of the energy subset will thrive in the 2020s?
29:00 will solar & wind demand save industrial commodities?
31:10 will Wall Street be buying commodities soon?
37:30 what do professional money managers want to see?
39:00 how can institutions can exposure to uranium?
45:30 why won’t professional money managers flood the commodity market?
59:00 does Michael Green still like gold?
01:04:10 what’s the issue with commodity cycles?
01:10:30 does macro even matter still?
For a different opinion, here's what a Canadian money manager told me about gold: th-cam.com/video/WAams4KijQY/w-d-xo.html
Mike is one of the smartest guys In the business! This is the first time I heard him talking about commodities, refreshing!
Mike is indeed a smart guy! Thanks for being here, K.
Huge fan too of Mike - he has the most cogent analysis of long term market dynamics and macro. Will see if his interest rate thesis plays out this year.
mike is a clueless, establishment, fed apologist, statist puppet... who loves nothing more but to cheerlead for incompetent governments and statists and their failed currencies whos stolen 98% of the wealth of every people that has ever existed over any 100 year period.
@@TheMedWolf hes an absolute clown
@@wasdwasdedsfare you as rich as him?
15:04 If you run well insulated, under-sized skinny wire to your lights and appliances, then the house could burn down. Better insulation does not allow smaller gauge wire. Gauge deals with amps. Insulation deals with volts. Improvement in insulation materials has allowed new wires to be bundled very close together. Old house wiring with cloth insulation (or no insulation) had conductors spaced further apart.
Thank you for adding value here, Greg. Are there innovations in the world of wiring today that would make for lower demand for copper in the near future?
Was going to say something similar... Stunningly ridiculous comments on his part.
This is another perfect example of how Mike knows just enough to be dangerous 😂. He says things that sound plausible to people who have no expertise in a given subject, but are instant red flags to anyone in the know. In this respect he is very similar to Peter Zeihan.
I think he was contrasting knob and tube vs today's Romex
@@MrMikeAA It's obvious he doesn't know what he is talking about. He's 100% incorrect. All knob and tube wiring has crude insulation around the actual conductor. The conductors themselves are just separated by an arbitrary air gap as they are run in and out of walls/ceilings. As I write this I'm in my office looking up at some old knob and tube wiring that was left in the exposed ceiling joists as some sort of a historical artifact by the previous owner. I just got on a step stool and peeled back that insulation and I can see that's it's standard 14 gauge. ... just what you would expect to find in a 15 amp circuit.
The fact that you have two conductors in insulation separated by an airspace actually helps to cool the conductors down, rather than having multiple conductors crammed in the same cable. In theory you can run a higher amperage in the knob and tube conductor of the same gauge because you've got more air/airflow between the conductors. Safe? Heck no, the insulation breaks down and it's a fire waiting to happen.
Surprised this 'expert' didn't start to ramble and recommend using aluminum for regular circuit runs in housing... ugg
Antonio, you ask penetrating questions that stimulate your guest's best thinking processes, and you are to be congratulated. Mr. Green is a very thoughtful, intelligent man. It's good to know he is in agreement with us on uranium! Your choice of guests is excellent. I am constantly surprised your videos do not receive wider attention. Thank you and best wishes.
Thank you for the kind feedback, Brian. My interviews are sub-par at best, but I appreciate the kind encouragement.
He doesn't appreciate the lack of investment, loss of personnel and regulations around uranium mining. The time it takes for a mine. The fuel process being so long and demand increases. Enrichment vs supply.
I think he does, we talked a bit about that. When he talks about abundant supply, he's talking about the grand scheme of things and how the supply issues will eventually be solved. In the meantime, he agrees there will be pockets of opportunities for speculators to take advantage.
You didn't listen to what he said. He said next 5 years lack of investment
I listened to a few of your podcasts before, but after seeing you have Mike Green on I finally hit subscribe.
Get ready for a bunch of disappointment, John!
Jokes aside, thank you for being here!
A touch of the Cathie Wood futurism.
just a splash
This was an outstanding session. The guess is so well read in so many areas and make the complex subjects easy for the average person to understand. Well done Antonio!
I didn't have to do much here, though. Michael is easy to talk to!
@@ResourceTalks youre far superior than this clown, authoritarian and fed apologist
Love Mike. Thanks for giving us so much of your time Mike.
Thank you for being here, Robert!
Mikes always a thoughtful great listen. My favorite Prof.
I think the variable he’s missing in the equation is what Rick Rule always mentioned-the decisions about allowing these supplies to even be pursued or allowed to continue once they are, are often governed by politicians. Look at Argentina and you’ll realize potential supply means almost nothing in a modern society.
That very modernity he postulated is our salvation from shortages actually ensures cycles of shortages, which will only temporarily be cured by high prices, until they screw it up all over again in 4 -8 years
It's also all a function of time, I suppose.
Thank you for the thoughtful comment, Trevor!
Exactly. The cyclical nature of these markets is basically human psychology and politics f'ing up the supply demand equation.
When he says we don't need a lot more copper he's obviously thinking of the affluent world. He's not thinking of India, Africa, South America, many other parts of the world were the electric grid will be greatly expanded.
Maybe he means besides what has been discovered? But I still get where you're coming from, and you're right.
100% he talks specifically about the US, and US demographics but the US doesn't exist in a vacuum, most of the demand for raw materials comes from Asia (specifically China) but in the future in places like India and Africa.
I fully understand that this man is very accredited but much of what he is saying does not make sense to me. Why would central banks be buying Gold if its monetary value was obsolete?
His timelines are not like theirs. He's talking about what happens in the long run. Over the short run, he also owns gold, as he mentioned.
Using Gold reserves that are not subject to US confiscation
hes a statist puppet, of course he doesnt like gold
Fantastic interview!!!
Thank you for being here, Mike!
Brilliant interview. Well done 👍
Thank you for the kind feedback, C. I appreciate you!
“There’s nothing unique about gold other than its chemical properties.” Good one
Is it not true?
This is ridiculous, gold is shiny and awesome and entrancing.
@@ResourceTalks The history behind is makes it unique
Good interview. Don’t agree with everything he says but good to hear a different viewpoint
What do you disagree with, Justin?
Alt title: "Fund manager talks his book"
Okay
It is kinda strange hearing him talk about gold like that when it just reached a nominal all time high very recently
Why does the ATH matter?
Just found this guy and his channel, cool stuff.
Thank you for stopping by, Abe! I appreciate you.
Yooooo great guest. Nice work
Thank you for being here, Nate! I appreciate the kind encouragement.
Love the optimism
same!
A decade or so ago I was hearing Thorium was a decade away. And here we are, no Thorium.
Agreed.
I buy Pasture-raised, organic eggs. And I do spend a significant amount of money on them :) You can buy 1.99 eggs or 8.50 eggs.
Do you find a noticeable difference?
To me eggs are eggs. I just buy them because they're supposed to be better for you.@@ResourceTalks
Same. Eggs are eggs. So, I'm not sure there's an actual difference between free range etc. I know there is on paper, but not sure whether that's the case irl.
What about AGG COMPLEX ! Also a commodity and as far as I understood M.Green concept it doesn’t fit there ? Any supply demand imbalances
No idea what agg complex is
Agricultural 😊 ( sorry )
Hahaha, I'm so slow. Now I get it. My bad.
I have no idea. The soft commodities market is a world of its own, and I can barely follow up with this world, let alone take on another one.
@@ResourceTalks ❤️
Oxygen? The prevalence of oxygen is analogous to the ubiquity of commodities? I always thought it was the onset of asteroid mining!
And deep sea mining!
I ❤ gold!
Does gold love you back tho?
Stranded copper wire has a HIGHER resistance than solid copper wiring of the same gauge. And methane is the SHORTEST carbon chain of hydrocarbons ✌️
I could disagree if I tried, so I'll take your word for it, M.
Now I want to see The Jeffersons re-done as a futuristic 60's cartoon with flying cars.
big same
27:00 That is exactly what we are all suffering.
Me?
Two speed economy. We have had this before in Australia before a recession.
Well done mate on different perspectives rather than pumpers.
Thank you for noticing that. I want to hear all angles!
About 20 minutes into video I knew I had to go to the comment section
Haha, yes, me too.
This interview reminds me of the movie "Being There" ...
Why?
@@ResourceTalks I found your guest meandering and desultory, either by design: some traders just don't like to reveal what they're actually doing and so go down rabbit holes as a diversion;
or by nature: they have nothing of substance to reveal and hope we mistake their rabbit holes for brilliance.
Overall, I'm enjoying your channel and posts and learning more about non-renewables (metals, energy, mining, etc.).
yes, cause the guest is an authoritarian, fed apologist hack@@christopherbobin4268
I'm still holding Uranium and plan to keep holding it for the long play.
What is "long" for you?
Same here. Some of the miners I will probably hold for 10 years.
Not moving towards denser energy sources does go along with the central planners narrative.
Will they be successful in their efforts, though?
Interviews like this hopefully will give your channel longevity and growth. Very intelligent perspective.
Hearing a different perspective on a different time frame is always beneficial. Thank you for stopping by, CC! I always appreciate your comments.
TLDR; if energy is practically free you can get all the uranium, water and metals. But energy is not free, so most of his points are ... right but useless in practice
In theory, there is no difference between theory & practice. In the practice tho...
Some interesting thoughts.
Tho i wonder enough people will be interested in keeping commodity prices high the miners and dealers ofcourse,isn't this the case with oil also ? Instead of drilling deeper and more thy just sell their excisting well reserves for more/create a scarcity and let the public believe the scarcity story ?
That's why we have OPEC, I suppose!
@@ResourceTalks i have zero understanding in oil,but i ones heard this claim
Antonio he tossed you an easy opportunity for an egg joke! He was going on and on about how cheap they are😂
I got it only mildly
Mike is obviously a smart guy and raises some interesting points, but I've never found him very convincing.
As one example, I can't think of a more useless set of data then the number of times commodity appears in whatever group of books has been digitized by Google. It might tell us something about English usage, but it really tells us nothing as relates to scarcity of commodities. Even modern Google search hits on that word only tell you something about narrative. I call BS on any macro person who starts waxing historical on subjects way out of their area of competence.
Another example is where he talks about recycling by burning everything at high temperature with massive energy to sort out various materials. He says this is literally what stars do. Sounds good, but he's wrong. A star doesn't melt a bunch of mixed up materials and sort them out, it actually creates all those materials via nuclear fusion and distributes them into the universe by exploding in a super nova 😂. The end result is a bunch of mixed up materials, not ones that have been sorted out. The process has almost nothing in common with the recycling process he described other than being very hot.
It is mentally stimulating, though.
Super interesting interview even if I was, at points, the guy shouting at the screen he mentioned.
Haha, I knew there will be a few! What got you shouting?
@@ResourceTalks Seemed like he would dismiss resource shortages out of hand ("pricing and markets will fix them") but I'm like, dude THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT OF BUYING NOW! I did get his point that he was speaking longer term (and his points regarding the implications of cheap high density energy were legit interesting) but I did think he was a little too dismissive of the cyclical nature of commodities and where we are in the cycle at the moment.
Also relating to gold, he said it was more useful when nations were expanding outward and needed a solid basis to establish trading credit, but that is no longer necessary. He didn't seem to account for the dedollarization and multipolar geopolitical themes which could bring the exact same dynamics back.
It was interesting to hear how money managers think in that regard.
Very interesting perspectives and why the commodities bull narrative could be a mistaken view. But with good supporting points
I think anyone who has a "commodities will go up forever" view is wrong. However, as Michael said, there is nothing to stop pockets of opportunities from occurring in the meantime. Commodities have always been cyclical.
👏🏾👏🏾
Thank you for stopping be, E!
If ever a uranium shortage threatened US energy security, I'd expect the government to ban private ownership of uranium.
Sceptical? See Gold Reserve Act, 1934...
And yes, I realise the role of uranium in the nuclear fuel cycle.
I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, but I don't think it'll have to get to there. Throwing money at a problem is always an easier solution, in the government's eyes, it appears.
@@ResourceTalks Throwing money at U miners will not suddenly produce uranium, though. It's more like "throw money and wait 10 years".
10 years is too much. In my last interview with Ross McElroy, he mentions that supply won't come out of nowhere, but in 5 years time the chance for a market balance is larger than most of us wish it to be.
@@ResourceTalks Yes, it depends who you listen to. Prediction is hard, especially where the future is concerned.
Regarding gold, that’s why people bought the miners …
I own atcu an it’s been nothing but dreadfull but huge copper deposit in Peru
Why'd you buy it?
@@ResourceTalks because I’m a fool for junior mining companies , oh geez
I hope it's miners we're talking about here
@@ResourceTalks of course it’s miners , lol yes that would be gold, silver, copper or junior company’s .. oh geez..
🤔 this guys always has the weirdest take
Like what?
So many interesting angles from him. The only thing I would have liked to hear from him was to address central banks demand for gold
I think he did, partly. That's why I didn't keep asking. He said that he sees value in gold over the short run, and that he owns it.
Opening statement "we dont need that much more copper". *Turns off video* hahaha Its nice to hear the other side of the argument I guess but not sure where this analyst has been living
When you hear his timeline, it'll make more sense. Michael also told me he agrees that there will be pockets of opportunity in the copper space (and other metals) but very few ever take advantage of those.
Whilst i agree with Mikes basic premise on energy (this is simply physics at the end of the day) he is wrong in terms of the amount of commodities i consume (his egg example). I consume more commodities than say Henry VII, and as a species this will continue to be the case. Granted this is highly likely to come in the form of energy, but its the creation, storage and movement of that energy which will continue to be commodity intensive.
Nuclear is great at creating a base load, but then you're never using it for personal transport or relying on it purely for national grids, you'll need energy storage (batteries, Hydrogen etc), means to transport that energy (power grids).
And sure the age of abundance is yet to come (that comes when fusion is finally delivered) but in the mean time you have billions of ppl who want similar lifestyles to those in the west. To deliver that in the next 20/30/40 years involves humungous sums of both money and ultimately commodities. We are a long way from the utopia he envisages, and getting there will involve a lot more ppl digging tunnels under ground and ploughing up fields.
Why would you need energy storage if you have nuclear?
He’s definitely on to something with the toilets. Hands free experience potentially reduces transmission of viruses and bacteria.
But it does feel weird.
Here’s a channel with people talking about the price of commodities …anyone here gullible to think that the private legal society that controls COMEX is gonna show you a way out of their COMEX control with a proper gold or silver digital price ?
The "manipulation" of the price of gold has been discussed at length on this channel. It's not what you think it is.
@@ResourceTalks the legal society controls digital price of God’s gold with digits on a keyboard.
What does legal have to do with man ?
No, they don't.
@@ResourceTalks
no such thing as “they” you mean CME group ?
• The Legal and Regulatory Division ensures CME Group’s legal and regulatory compliance, supervises internal controls, implements risk management
This seems very western centric. The reality is that demand for energy and materials continues to rise, and so does worldwide population. Our debt based monetary system requires growth, which requires expending more and more energy. Obviously this cannot continue forever... demand destruction will occur when the rising costs of more energy and more resources are out of reach.
It could continue for longer than all of us think, though, no?
Everything gonna get cheaper.... but on what timeframe? Demands for copper still rising, oil rising, silver rising, people talking peak oil forever, eventually they will be right, but that statement is essentially useless. This discussion is too abstract.
Exactly. As Michael mentioned, there will be pockets of opportunities in the meantime. It's important to stay on top of those, though, and understand that cyclicals will be cyclicals.
Here we go again. "There's millions of years of supply of uranium". Tell that to all the utilities waiting to pick some up at THE URANIUM STORE. 😂
I don't think his case was about what's happening over the short run.
Yep, I agree.
It's still important to understand the "high prices are the cure for high prices" one liner from Rick Rule.
The supply issues won't continue forever, and we'll eventually figure it out. That's the whole point he was trying to make, as far as I understand it.
Hoky shit do actually listen. He wasn't talking about the short term.
@@ResourceTalksvery true but until then it's a solid play, all the pull back of the major players recently was an opportunity to buy.
@@travsonder2523 Holy shit, nobody gives a crap about the long term. Tell me something I can use next week, next month, next year maybe, but NOT in 20 years. Some of us won't be around then anyway.
The majority of comment section here is a giant spectacle in confirmation bias. Mike doesn't even disagree with short term trading potential but you can sense how his long term view triggers people. There will be a lot of dead household balance sheets when this bull run ends.
I agree.
There is something about Mike's rethoric and lexicon that keeps me from understanding what his actual point is. I get lost in his recursive way of speaking :(
@@HectorYague Exactly. If only he had a firm grip on science (esp. physics), logic, and rhetoric!
MEH
hem
@@ResourceTalks LOL switch that one around ! lol
It is interesting, how your guest ignores the unfunded liabilities of the entire nuclear industry wherever they are located. Not adequate insurance to make the energy cost effective compared to any other source so your guest is shooting blanks as they say
Nuclear is still cheaper, regardless, afaik.
Man, really useless interview in terms of investment stuff lol. Kudos to Antonio for trying to drive the questions but responses were all about general philosophy. Talking about technology usage 100 years ago and also referencing asteroid mining for gold which I think we are probably 100 years away from. 0 specifics about any pertaining to current commodity outlook lol.
Thanks for stopping by and trying to stick around, Ben. There's some stuff in here if you want to read between the lines, but indeed not as much as you'd typically get from a Rick Rule or so.
At ~1:10:xx, "I married the first girl that ever saw me naked." Did you get born with clothes on?
My momma is a woman, not a girl!
@@ResourceTalks There were likely nurses at the hospital.
Maybe they were all male nurses.