The Dangerous Game of Modern Economic Warfare with Doomberg
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- The team riffs with Doomberg, a renowned energy analyst, to discuss a range of issues from the global energy landscape to geopolitical tensions and the changing nature of warfare. The conversation also delves into the intricacies of the global natural gas market, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the potential future of nuclear energy.
•Discussion on the global energy landscape, with a focus on natural gas and its role in the U.S. economy
•Insights into the geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, and the implications of the fall of the city of Avdiivka
•Examination of the changing nature of warfare, with a focus on the use of drones and the complexity of modern military conflicts
•Analysis of the impact of sanctions on Russia, the effectiveness of these measures, and the potential repercussions on the global stage
•Exploration of the global natural gas market, its future prospects, and the implications for the U.S. economy
•Discussion on the weaponization of the U.S. dollar and the potential for gold to emerge as a neutral reserve asset
•Insights into the potential future of nuclear energy, spurred by Amazon's entrance into the nuclear sector
This episode offers a deep dive into the complexities of the current global landscape, from energy markets to geopolitical conflicts. It provides valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding these dynamics and their implications for the future. The discussion with Doomberg offers a unique perspective, blending energy analysis with geopolitical understanding, making this episode a must-listen for those seeking to navigate the intricacies of the global stage.
01:07 Introducing Doomberg: Insights on Geopolitics and Energy
01:49 Deep Dive into the Ukraine Conflict and Media Narratives
10:31 Analyzing Sanctions and Their Impact on Global Commodities
19:51 The Geopolitical Chessboard: Russia, NATO, and the West
31:48 Border Security and the Controversy of Immigration Policies
35:30 The Polarization of Solutions in Geopolitical and Domestic Policies
37:11 Exploring Energy Policies and Natural Gas Dynamics
38:06 The Economic Power of Cheap Natural Gas in the U.S.
39:09 Analyzing Global Energy Markets and U.S. Production
40:27 The Impact of Natural Gas on U.S. Manufacturing and Economy
41:20 Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Production Insights
49:57 The Future of Energy: Optimism Amidst Technological Advances
54:49 The Role of Gold and Cryptocurrencies in the Global Economy
01:03:24 Addressing Climate Newspeak and the Importance of Free Thought
01:08:53 Concluding Thoughts: Resilience and Optimism for the Future
This is "ReSolve's Riffs" - published on TH-cam every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* & Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.
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We live in an age where a green chicken on a TH-cam show is a source of informed commentary from considered research of relevant geopolitical events . And the USA president is a meme
"US Presidents who are known by their initials: FDR, JFK, LBJ, FJB"
💀
Well said
the western hypocrisy is pretty thick here though but its mandatory so..
Wait till the chicken is the president and the president is the source of informed opinion..
This is especially good interview. Great questions
"In fact, the word 'democracy' itself is undergoing a purposeful semantic shift to mean the current slate of leaders retain their power."
YES!!! I've been saying this but haven't heard anyone else say this until now.
🤦♂️
"Our Democracy"
Correction-reports are that the word democracy has been intentionally changed to mean democratic institutions.
Words in general are being deconstructed or redefined at pace. Democracy is but one.
The English language is malleable and a word like Hello changed from an expression of curiosity to a greeting quickly, so it is said, due to the telephone.
The serious issue is when these alterations are highly political and nonconsensual in nature. I'd give examples but it's hard enough to keep comments up on yt these days without going there.
A lot of people have said this. Whenever you hear anyone say "Our Democracy" replace with "Our Hegemony".
Fight for liberty! "A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" ~ Thomas Jefferson
Easy to say when you're rich and own slaves. Jefferson spoke a big game back in the day, but he still was an elite and had a bottom line to look after.
@Deadeye313 Everyone back then owned slaves even the blacks it was legal.
Are founding fathers though rich put their lives and property on the line for the common man,most went bankrupt. They gave us the constitution to protect the common man from government.
Jefferson supported the invasion of Canada in 1812. Which he thought would be a cakewalk. 10,000 dead soldiers, a capital city in flames and the country bankrupt was the result. And no palpable gains.
My daughter died from fentanyl poisoning and I agree with doomberg
Am sorry about your daughter. China has officially banned Fentanyl export to the US in 2019 and clamping down on profiteers exploiting this. DEA Intelligence Report has published DEA-DCT-DIR-008-20 about Fentanyl flow to the US. (Fentanyl is also legally purchased by pharmaceutical and actively used to put people to sleep during life saving surgery.)
I'm sorry for your loss
Hope she's in a better place
I had 3 nieces die from fentanyl
I'm so sorry.
Doomberg makes 100x more sense than all the Sniders, Van Metres and Gammons put together who just look at the bond curve and scream "recession!"
Only van metre lives in a castle... I mean. He goes in there after the show no?
That mans eyebrow is boss. His balls must be frightening ! 😂😂
I like his take on commodities but his take on a US glut in LNG somehow defeating all the recessionary signals is puzzling at least. He needs to look at Australia. We’re sitting on a “gas station” too, plus endless commodities. But we’re on the brink. No savings left, wage suppression by crazy (but legal) immigration policy, oppressive push to green power, and high st (as opposed to official CPI) inflation absolutely rocketing. Limited investment in new business, no one can afford to move, so no labour mobility, scandalous power price increases etc etc etc. AUD remains weak. It’s all setup for IMHO a consumer led recession. All the hydrocarbons in the world not preventing it.
Truly enjoyable and insightful conversation. Thx for sharing.
Interesting perspective. Thank you for sharing. I disagree on so many points, but I learned much on the contra view.
"One of the reasons you don't pick fights in bars is you might lose". LoL I like this guy.
Especially when your primary opponent is judo black belt, and you’re a professor of gender studies…
Shouldn't that apply to Putin?
@@penponds You think the combined power of NATO is analogous to a professor of gender studies? And Russia, a country with a GDP less than Canada, is analogous to a black belt in judo?
The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is more like 40 than 20! I'm a bit shocked that you missed this, Doomberg. *concerned*
I still love your well developed, alternative, and oftentimes seemingly obvious after the fact analysis.❤
Yeah, now. It wasn't a year ago.
I think the Ukraine situation is a huge psychological operation on at least 2 or 3 fronts.
Correct, they intentionally are avoiding young men so they can keep their birth rate up.
@@GNelke curious in what ways is it psychological?
As a Canadian, I love the "despite Justin Trudeau," comment...cheers!
So you oppose his ramming the transmountain pipeline through?
"Our currencies are just derivatives of energy".....wow.....I have never heard that before....that makes me look at currencies and energy in a completely different way!
The reason youve never heard it before is because its utter bullshit and highlights a profound ignorance of Forex and how money is created. There is so much bullshit here you could write a book on why its absurd.
If that were the case the Swiss Franc would be next to worthless. How much energy does Switzerland produce?
@@drmodestoesq In terms of the energy they trade in gold bars, quite a lot. I always think of gold as a perfect way to store enegy because it does not decay. It's like they have no oil, but the have a lot of refining capacity.
Outstanding thought provoking insights from Doomberg as always
The incompetence of American generals and strategists is unbelievable
It's a show.....the.war racket wants it to go on for as long as possible.
They kicked out everyone capable of thinking objectively for refusing the jabs
At least Milley introduced the importance of pronouns to the military.
@@dudeonyoutube😅thanx I wanted to know how screwed we are😢
It's easy to claim incompetence when you know nothing yourself. The USA has excellent generals, troops, tactics and equipment. But Russia still has thousands of Nuclear weapons so, we'd win a conventional war, but the real war won't be conventional, it'll be Nuclear.
Lol, re TSA, with no "pre screening" an agent approachs me way back in line and says "Mr Chapman, you are free to proceed." It's not so bad being a veteran :)
It was a domestic flight
I think "This hour has 22 minutes" is tongue-in-cheek for the 60s TV newsmagazine on CBC called "This hour has 7 days". Hard-hitting, controversial, and objective the way news used to be
RIP Patrick Watson.
Thank you
Thank you for bringing this excellent guest!
I just found your channel. I absolutely love Newburgh and follow him. He is spot on.
Who the blazes is Newburgh?
Cluster bombs are not banned by the Geneva Convention or the United States.
Correct- that made me wonder about Doomberg’s awareness. They are banned by the Convention on Cluster Munitions, to which the USA is not a party.
Your average person or above average person, who is not a military person and doesn't understand military matters or weaponry wouldn't know this fact. @@garyschneider6644
Putin is not "carpet bombing" Ukraine either. If you want to see what that looks like, go to Gaza. Doomberg may be a 3 letter agency insider. Always spreading some propaganda mixed with some truth.
And Russia has already used them against Ukraine. So that makes the humanitarian argument irrelevant. Doomberg is wrong on a lot of things.
We have over a billion people that still use wood for heat
The government is giving tax incentives in 2023 to buy efficient coal and wood burning stoves for home heating
This was my first listen. Amazing session I am now subscribed and looking forward to more great content. Thank you!
Double check all his assertions. He's wrong on basically everything he says about Russia. The Russian economy is in a world of hurt.
While I understand and agree with the point that we're swimming Natgas and therefore have an advantage in staying economically afloat, this conversation does not take into account the effect of our massive deficit spending - which also keeps the economy afloat. Every 3 dollars of deficit spending is only generating $1 of economic 'growth'..... This reality can not be ignored in any analysis of the US economy....
Watch also Energy Blindness by Petroleum Geologist Arthur Berman and Professor Simon Michaux
Let’s be honest, USD remains strong because - what’s the actual, real world alternative?
Gold is making a comeback but crypto will win in the end. I know it sounds like a fantasy but it is the most obvious choice, not saying BTC or any of the others but a global CBDC on a shared ledger
@@mathewward6229 Chinese people are allowed to buy gold and silver. Cryptos are banned in China.
Doomberg describes the futility of sanctioning commodities based on volume. But to a considerable extent, we are sanctioning Russian oil based on price.
And he ignores the fact that it's been a huge success. Russian oil and gas revenues have plunged. Don't believe me, believe official Russian government reports.
Excellent, intelligent, and very interesting interview!
Is global or American oil price gonna go up a lot?
Moscow has gone on a shopping spree for soldiers, imported weapons, and ramped up its own arms production. The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (Bofit) finds that most of the growth in Russian manufacturing is in war-related subsectors. The rest of industry has largely stagnated
Russia has also lost something like 400,000 men under age 40 just in this conflict. Being generous in their population data, they have likely lost 1.2% of their young male population.
Which means a massively declining quality of life and standard of living and massive inflation. But Doomberg thinks Russia is doing amazing.
The Russian official reports released by the Russian government report a substantial fall in the revenue from oil and gas.
So a lot of analysts, including Russian ones, disagree on a fundamental level with his Doomberg's conclusions
.
However much I hate that this Ukrainian situation was not avoided and possibly even sought out by the Anglo-Saxon front, I do agree Europe should not exclude pro actively drawing the line and secure its borders. The disrespect shown by the Anglo-Saxon is only because it is not adjacent to their borders and therefor the conflict is arrogantly perceived as strategically beneficial.
Military industrial complex what?
Actually it does. It is just purposely spreading propaganda.
Good point about oil energy and recession
Gents!! Wonderful discussion.
Inflation will always drive oil prices higher
8:45 "Russia is a strong country."
😂
Angry Bird should have stopped when he said he wasn't an expert.
I know. A country with a GDP smaller than Canada that is circling the drain.
Doomberg, have you seen the chart of XLE and XOP, lately? Cheap energy in the future? Are you sure? 🤔
step 2 includes distribution of leagacy weaponry throughout esat and middle east. In prep for step 3
As Henke says, a recession is baked in the cake.
That old Reaganite? I wouldn't take anything he says as financial gospel.
@@drmodestoesq I wouldn't blow it off earlier. Forget Hanke. Look at the yield curve. When NVDIA corrects, it's taking the entire market with it.
Electricity price forecast?
DOOMBERG YOU HAVE NO IDEA OF WHAT WAR IS !
Yeah...a cluster bomb hit your caps lock key and JAMMED IT DOWN!!!!!
The third stage of ideological subversion is the crisis phase. By this point, the society is in a state of chaos, with heightened tension and a breakdown of trust in institutions. This crisis could manifest in various forms, including political upheaval, economic collapse, or social unrest. The goal is to push the society to a breaking point where people are desperate for solutions, paving the way for radical change.
During the crisis phase, external forces may exploit the vulnerabilities within the society, offering alternative ideologies or solutions. This creates an opportunity for a shift in power dynamics and the imposition of foreign ideologies on the now susceptible population.
So you're saying we have to defeat Putin's invasion at all costs?
This all leaves me. 1.unhappy with my nation. 2. Unhappy with it's foreign policy. 3. Unhappy with the war in Ukraine. 4. Unhappy with it's petrochemical situation. I am 76 years old and how can things work out?😅
Things can work out exactly how you Baby Boomers made them. A bloody disaster. With no end in sight.
the answer is that today we have no adults in charge . We need statesmen/women and the ground is bare .
Just a thought, what if we let the market buy oil as per normal from Russia but a tariff or royalty of 50% of the buy price goes directly to Ukrainian basically the world is creating a fund for Ukrainian to use out of taxing the oil on Russia the buyer loses nothing he pays the same Russia losses 50% revenue and no supply damage
The ball being left in Russia court if they want to keep supplying and of course if all country’s commit to the agreement, hard to ask I guess
Yeah....Doomberg really is out of touch with that one.
If you want an answer to your question, just read Saul Alinsky Rules for radicals " chaos Anarchy that kinda stuff.
Alinsky was an OSS CIA fake commie
Pffft...As the Big Liebowski said,
"Your revolution is over Mr. Liebowski! Condolences! The bums lost!"
And those old 60s radicals turned into the biggest money grubbing Baby Boomer selfish hypocrites in the history of the human race.
Great discussion thanks
Pre is awesome, you skip the line and walk in, it cuts a half hour off your airport time. 🥂⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐🥂
8:10 "people in their early 20's dying by the scores [in the Ukraine war]" Doomberg is a bit misinformed here. The average frontline soldier age is 43 years on the Ukrainian side, and probably similar on the Russian side. The kids are not being conscripted directly into the war by either side YET. Rather, only previous vets or those who have done prior conscription service, (also prisoners and any foreign workers without papers etc. on the Russian side) are being drafted/mobilized. This will likely change, but the demographics of both nations are such that there are simply many more men aged 40 and older than there are 20-somethings.
Men of all ages are running for their lives out of Ukraine to avoid conscription.
The Ukrainian Millenials and Zoomers are being blown to bits or already blown to bits. Modern industrial war is ruthless.
Ya which isn't great. As each gets into the hundreds of thousands of men lost it means the only recruits coming are gonna be kids or the elderly. If Russia hopes to push past into Romania and Poland they probably want to shore up these loses.
@@rometimed1382 And everyone with a brain and the resources is getting the hell out of Russia before they get sent to the meat grinder.
Thanks guys for the Talk . Im learning all I can
Russia selling oil and gas on the open market and receiving hard currency from Europe was never a good idea.
Too many people have walked around a refinery and then became commentators. Sorry if this is rude but it is true.
I don't always agree with Doomberg, but I enjoy listening to him and his ideas. He has a fossil fuel bias, but he often makes sense.Please bring him back.
The world has a fossil fuel bias if you didn't notice the most widely used energy source
@@Kevriyal5654 And this too shall pass. Bring on nuclear, and hydrogen...
Doomberg.......the reality is....... YOU HAVE NO REPRESENTATION IN WASHINGTON !!! ZERO ! NONE !
Why? Is he Canadian or something?
Russian economic parity with Italy, as i have read; does not equate to its portrayal as a powerful nation. Even with 50 year old stocks of military equipment, nukes that it can't utilize and massive man-power inputs from its own and other countries. It can't sustain the war for years more economically. It's hemorrhaging losses of hardware it won't easily replace.
doomberg mentioning the arrow of time made my day. covert timechain hedgeoooor confirmed. great show guys
Raise audio it is too low.
The guy in the centers pupils are freaking me out
Doomberg at 1.5 speed sounds like Michael Malice
Doomberg is wrong on refineries. If Russia has destroyed refineries, they have surplus of oil they can't process so they have to sell it at a discount to foreign refineries. Also it limits domestic gasoline for citizens making the whole economy less competitive
And we can prove that conclusively by the fact that Russia has banned refined products like Diesel fuel. And China and India already don't want Russian refined products. All they want is that cheap crude. Which is why Russian oil revenues have plummeted.
Looking for comments!!!!!! Can someone give commentary on "joe bloggs". That's the TH-cam channel name and he has been saying the Russian economy is in collapse. Is joe bloggs a propaganda operator working for MI6?
Most of the Western press, and many TH-cam channels are parroting government propaganda about Vladimir Putin. He isn't at death's door, and neither is the Russian economy on the brink of collapse. Come to that, Russia isn't on the brink of invading Western Europe. Putin couldn't manage a successful invasion of Kyiv, let alone the whole of Western Europe...
Maybe yes. He started off speaking candidly then suddenly transitioned to Teh Western Narrative
I stopped listening
He's definitely an agent for someone.
A Doomberg fan watching from France. I've been following Doomberg for a while now. I'm sure I'm not the only Doomberg fan here in France. I used to respect Macron - but my faith and trust in Macron - and in the French political system - has eroded to near zero. To a lesser extent France is being invaded by woke-like propaganda from the USA. Had Europe allied itself with Russia 25 years ago we would be stronger and more powerful than the USA. Russia has all the resources we needed here in Europe. But we are now just vassals to the geopolitical interests of the Americans.
It was Russia that rejected the West. Russia should have used it's vast natural resources to become a diversified economy. Like Texas. Instead the thug Putin decided imperialism was the way forward.
I saw Doomberg and clicked, expecting an interesting talk on energy policy. Instead I get blather from people who haven’t realised that NATO’s war aims and Ukraine’s war aims are not the same.
Doombergs ace, but i dont know where TF he gets this carpet bombing from east to west kind of crap from. He still gobbles up the narratives hes fed.
I learned so much. Thank you
The green German super-minister for the economy, energy and ecology, Robert Habeck, has just declared that - for Germany - the energy crisis is over and "his work is done". No further comment, I think this speaks for itself.
Two sides to every narrative
More like 8 billion. But I take your point.
i think they talk with a bird ,not sure if i crazy?
Mayorkas was born in Cuba and schooled at Berkeley.
Nuff said.
Why are we lying to ourselves Doomberg? Well, given the same passions as reflected in Tacitus's historical characters, people tend to take on the character of those they constantly appear to be and in so doing, they deceive others and themselves.
Tacitus was an imperialist.
@@drmodestoesq Tacitus was a historian who understood the human condition and an intellectual who documented human psychology and philosophy. To try and project your conception of a 21st century imperialist on an intellectual from more than two thousand years ago reflects what Albert Nock would call a trained mind, not an educated mind.
@@TheCrackupboom The fact that you cannot understand the cultural and ideological biases of a imperialist indicates what Albert Nock would call a trained mind, not an educated mind.
@@drmodestoesq Which grouping of people were not, your so-called imperialists during the time of Tacitus? How can any educated person draw a conclusion about Tacitus being an imperialist? What would Tacitus think of the Woke West? He would have no way to conceptualize such a suicidal political orientation because no such lunacy could have existed during his lifetime. Tacitus tells us much about power politics which exist today. The passions and desires of the people are the same in the time of Tacitus as today.
Doomberg fails to understand how exactly the war in Ukraine started.
it is sad to see 3 guys doing nothing but agreeing on everything. And the two noding like horses to whatever Doomberg says. Look at yourself again.
Seven generals got the US through WWII. Now they have over 40 generals and none are qualified as war generals
I'm sorry this is painful to listen to.
Doomberg may know how to sell dirt, but he has no idea about warfare, state relations, who's fighting the war, how they're doing it, what's the military situation or how Russia works.
Just stick to dirt.
He's quite naive on certain subjects ie the aims of this current regime by allowing an open southern boeder.
Biden presented a sweeping border reform bill to the Congress. They shot it down because Trump said he didn't want to give Biden a win. So it has all to do with the leader of the previous regime.
Also people who think Russia is booming should get a Russian friend because if they are it is not trickling down to the people.
"Steps that we would not take in the west" are you serious? Ever heard about Hiroshima or Nagasaki? Dresden? Vietnam? Iraq? And you think the blame for Fentanyl is China's fault?
Hahaha, the fight in Ukraine was always in Russia's favor from day 1
And from month 1 and year 1 and decade 1. Does Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq and all the other quagmires ring a bell?
DHS. . What. A. Total jobs program for the US. Mexico is our future labor pool. ❤❤
In the last 3 weeks Russia has lost 15% of its refining capacity. What happens when this gets to 20% or 30% or 40%. At what point does the Russian economy begin to suffer from oil and revenue problems? And will OPEC increase production to offset this leaving Russia to suffer alone?
Doomberg's thesis is that any reductions in Russian oil production capacity will increase global prices by more than enough to increase Russia's net revenue. Effectively he's predicting that a) oil prices and refined product prices should be going up sharply this week, as prices change by a LOT more than the percentage changes in supply vs demand, and b) a (let's guess) 10% decline in Russian oil export volumes would be compensated for (and definitely were in 2022) by a 50% increase in the price, at least for Russian foreign exchange earnings. There are just a few problems with this old position in the context of the most recent Ua attacks on Russian refineries, and it also doesn't take into account impacts on the broader Russian economy. Note that I haven't seen any recent mention of major changes in the global oil prices, so European spot markets are presumably not expecting the refinery attacks to have any wider impact.
An interesting recent development (about 10 days ago?) is that Russia has banned the export of refined gasoline, in order to ensure that internal consumers have enough fuel to keep local/internal prices down. That is, internal Russian fuel prices are seen as a politically sensitive issue - or at least they were before Putin's "election" on the weekend of March 16. Presumably if Russian refineries are damaged further by Ukrainian drones, this will also begin to affect the Russian economy (transportation etc.) a bit, but unpredictably. Truckers (and ordinary car drivers) will be unhappy about higher prices (lower availability), but it's very hard to protest about that in a police state where people putting flowers at a memorial can be jailed and/or conscripted. That is, ordinary consumers will likely just suck up the pain for quite a long time - it's likely to take a 40% or more reduction in internal fuel availability before people simply stop showing up for work. (Economies can adapt to changing fuel supplies, but it would take at least 10 years to do that peacefully; a rapid shift is much harder to tolerate.)
We don't really know what impact lower refinery capacity will have on Russian industry and especially military production. Fertilizer production will likely suffer first, which is bad news a year or so later, but not in the immediate short term. Other chemical industries may also quietly produce less, with no-one willing to complain openly (see my previous comments about consumers being willing to take the pain). I don't think that any military production facilities will collapse despite much higher input prices, because they are living entirely off state funding at the moment, although their output will also decline somewhat.
We also don't know whether Russia will be able to repair refinery damage properly or rapidly. Yes, they are very short on skilled technical people, especially those younger than 50, those that have been drafted, or those that fled the country. That said, we simply don't know. Can the trainees and drunks and other incompetents still working at those facilities do a good enough job to get damaged refineries 95% operational again, at least for another year or so? Maybe? People do tend to learn on the job, and some of them will do better than expected. It then becomes a game of how quickly Ukraine can keep hitting Russian facilities vs them being repaired, and also how much of Russia's air defenses they are willing to divert away from the front lines to defend obscure industrial plants 500km east of Moscow. All of this will still increase the internal cost of petroleum products to Russian consumers, and reduce their reliability, but for the most part, the oil will likely still keep flowing.
Another big unknown is whether or not Russia really can profit from oil exports anymore. (It definitely did in 2022.) One of Turkey's oil ports has stopped accepting Russian oil though, and the Houthis have been somewhat indiscriminate about their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea recently, so it's not clear whether Russia can maintain volumes of oil shipped out of the Black Sea. (Ukraine has also been hitting Russian naval ports; they may soon start on the oil shipment facilities too.) Russian oil shipments out of the Baltic (e.g. via Amsterdam) are also facing more scrutiny recently, and are likely to be blocked this year. On the revenue side, Russia is also experiencing problems with oil sales to India and China (the largest consumers), in that they are only willing to pay in their own currencies, and Russia has very little that it can buy from India with Rupees. Oil sales to India are effectively only possible as a gift at the moment. Oil revenue from sales to China CAN be used for SOME purchases of Chinese products, typically golf-cart like light unarmored trucks for transporting goods around the front lines, and Chinese cars (which don't work well on Russian potholes/roads) to replace European cars. That said, a lot of Russian oil exports to China are also effectively not bringing in any usable revenue either - and the Russian government needs that to pay Roubles to state-owned military industries, because the Russian state now funds EVERYTHING in the country. At some point, we will probably see a simple printing of more roubles to fund the Russian military - and hyperinflation will probably follow soon after. That might still be more than two years away though.
@davidbarry6900 I believe Russian oil production and refining will continue to decline and that OPEC will fill the gap. OPEC does not want oil prices too high because that will cause a global recession, which is not good for business. Russia will be left alone to deal with its oil problems, and it will suffer immensely. I'm not making any sort of a political statement. I'm just recognizing that the Russian economy is propped up by oil. It is their Achilles Heel.
@@chrishardin7183I'm not convinced that OPEC will be able to fill the supply gap. Production has been declining in recent decades globally outside of US Shale.
I agree that the Russian economy will have some problems with refining capacity going offline. That said, they at least still have internally sourced oil production and refining. It's a much lower level of pain than countries like Pakistan experience if they simply can't get any fossil fuel imports. So yes it will be painful for the Russians, but no-one knows if it will be painful enough to cause any significant impact politically or to their economy. Ukraine is just HOPING for such, and perhaps more challenges for Russia's military too.
OPEC could just reverse their production cuts if they are worried about supply or prices.
@@davidbarry6900 That only slightly less long than War and Peace. But brilliantly articulated.
Joe Bribem is precisely the wrong man at the wrong time in history.
More "he's a madman" narrative. Haven't we been around this block too many times to realize the recurring theme?
Boy.They've changed there tune.
If magical thinking was a person, it would be doomburg.
It's far from clear what military engagement with Russia, even if successful, can benefit the United States.
Russia won't claim to own the Arctic Ocean if they are defeated.
How is it a chicken on internet makes more sense than the entire nato alliance?
This is based on lies, the EU has put a cap on price, it does not buy above a specific price.
Also, the idea that Nato, with 20 times more arms than Russia can't win a war with Russia is quite crazy.
Nat gas is clean! how my beer lol
Putin could conclude the war in a week if he wanted to. The simple fact of the matter is that continuing the conflict serves his purposes more than concluding it. Russia has accomplished more strategic and geopolitical goals over the course of the conflict than at any time since the fall of the USSR.
What? So Putin is trying to destroy Russia militarily and economically? What is he? A CIA mole?
What was 😮
While everyone waits on the leader to finish an elaborate process of rolling excrement into marble's used in competition determining our fate as 'Leader of the free world' .
T/C/E
I just read "Crazy Pills."
It has aged like milk.
Three people who know nothing about geopolitics.
Sometimes I look into those chicken eyes and I feel seen.
What's with the bird....
I'm a big believer that cheap energy is the largest driver of a successful economy (outside a functional legal system with sufficient propert rights). I'm still not convinced this is enough to keep us from a near term recession. But, maybe we do limp along in stagnation due to cheap energy and deficit spending
The Ukrainians do not have an Air Force. The USAF is a major part of the US military strategy. There is no analogy between US and Ukrainian militaries
Or Navy
@@nodaklojack Or a massive satellite and electronic eavesdropping infrastructure.
The majority of the guest's "i dont understand why" could be answered readily and quickly with a reading of "Letter to Open Minded progressives" or "The Dark Enlightenment" but I'm not allowed to say that, am I?
Piont of order the green hen would still be British if the french didn't help you in the war of independence
Ps they have won more wars then any other country
Nat gas will be under pressure for all of 2024 ,pipe lines are full cant flare off absolutely a glut this year maybe some recovery next year ,also supper mild winter this year
Doomberg you are interesting and smart but are severely lacking in knowledge of national defense and strategic goals.
Which is what he's opining on. So that's a problem.
Ridiculous, ludicrous, however you want to describe it's hard to take the commentary, no matter how good it may be, of a green chicken seriously. Unwatchable.
Don't rely on a cartoon bird on the ways of war. Very poorly informed.
Poorly informed? How so? Sounds like the propaganda that Ukraine can beat Russia might've got you.
excellent
Amazing how people formulate opinions on war and that don't even have a TS/SCI clearance. 😆
The problem with that argument is the massive screwups that have been made by people who did have security clearance. And the disagreements between them as well.