California Home Prices Rise Significantly but Change is Looming
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ต.ค. 2024
- There’s good and bad news for California’s homebuyers. The good news is that housing inventory increased from a year ago for the first time in the last 11 months. As of February 2024, there’s 6.8% more homes for sale statewide compared to February 2023. A main contributor to this rise is from an increase in the number of newly listed homes for sale, rising by double digits YOY both in January and February this year.
The bad news is that home prices are still increasing. This February, California’s median sold price surged by 9.7% from February 2023. That’s the biggest YOY increase since March 2022. Additionally, average 30 year fixed rates for those with exceptional credit is still in the 7% range making housing unaffordable for many.
I share these trends and much more including California’s pending home sales, price reductions, home sales and much more. This is your latest California real estate market update based on a new report from the California Association of Realtors (link below).
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Report I covered in the video:
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To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30yr fixed rate mortgage is around 7% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
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Revest Homes (DRE #02174879, NMLS 2362319)
jason@meetjasonwalter.com
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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
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California just needs more homes plain and simple. We're playing musical chairs with 20 people and one house.
Government regulations makes it difficult and investors won’t take the risk
@@TarmacSkinCalifornia is finally peeling back regulations it's been eroding away at local zoning control for the last few years now. The state is also pursuing cities that won't give them plans that meet state requirements for housing allotments. Huntington Beach probably being the most egregious offender.
Great analysis in the Average Sales Price compared to the peak in 2022.
I cant believe so many people can afford these prices in CA. I just offered asking price on a home, and got outbid by $100,000 all cash!
Which city? Thanks
Wow, that’s bonkers
If they have a house with a lot of equity to sell they can. First time buyers are completely screwed out of this market.
We just got outbid by a 400k over asking with 31 offers. It's crazy.
People are bidding 5% and some time 10% over asking these days, it's just crazy out here. Home prices are going to increase 15-25% once rate cuts starts here, its just crazy out here , homes are selling sometimes in couple of days.
I’m seeing some craziness on Sacramento . Some homes getting over 10 offers.
@@JasonWalter1 we have so few pre owned homes here. My friends brother had to buy new, cause he kept getting out bid🤷🏽♂️🥺
What city are you in?
@@cyrusm3391 east bay
Are you glad your homeowner 😂. If you listen to “crashbros” until today you’re still a renter and probably priced out. My 2nd house in San Diego I bought in 2022 for 685k with 4.375 rate. According to Redfin its current value at 830-860. My neighbor 2 houses from me is pending at 895k
Does that sign in your background (right side of the panel) say: “$5.00 charge for whining”?? That’s hilarious!
Yep!
Great information like always
Thank you!
Jason, do you have data that shows who these buyers are? Institutions vs. first time home buyers vs. mom and pop investors vs foreign investors?
I find it hard to believe individuals are just going crazy buying homes in, of all places, the #1 state people have been leaving.
I do not
Morning 🌄 Jason and everyone!
House prices are also raising in Ireland! Makes no sense besides the total lack of inventory! (People are easily bidding 50k over asking here)
You just had a video that said zillow is predicting .9% increase in 2024. There are countless you tubers who have been calling for a crash for over three years now. I think predicting anything right now should be stopped and only reporting what is happening or what has happened. How about that for a plan?
Don't know, but here in Fresno homes are on the market for 90+ days not selling
Great update! Any feedback on new construction data for riverside/menifee?
Low info buyers saw a dip in rates and jumped.on the "buy now or be priced out forever" bandwagon. "Better bid over ask, that lopsided condo that's been listed for 10 weeks just got six bids yesterday!" We're in '06-'07 right now. Momentum still strong but cracks showing under the financial institutions and lending industry.
So what are all the "high info" people doing? Still making their landlords richer every month?
@@JimFriend-iw3ev Landlords getting rich? Rents are stagnating at best. Remember when renters didn't have to pay any rent not too long ago?
@@toinengwyn3935 Rents "stagnating" has absolutely nothing to do with them getting rich on the rent you are paying.
And yes I remember the rent moratorium. . I also remember the government shoveling billions and billions to landlords in reimbursement.
@@JimFriend-iw3ev "Rents 'stagnating' has absolutely nothing to do with them getting rich on rhe rent you are paying."
How can landlords keep getting rich *now* if their margins are *currently* being squeezed due to *currently* falling/stagnant revenues and *currently* rising costs?
They may have enjoyed the riches of exponentially rising rents in the *past*. But *now* is a challenging environment when rental supply is increasing.
Now, about those rich landlords....47% of all rental units (most SFH, duplexes, and triplexes) are owned by mom and pop investors. Many of them still have full time jobs. Many of them use their rentals as passive income as an alternative to the stock market's greater returns and inevitable greater volatility.
"And yes I remember the rent moratorium. . I also remember the government shoveling billions and billions to landlords in reimbursement."
Were the funds dispersed properly and effortlessly to the landlords? Relief funds were subject to state and local jurisdictions. Many landlords were required to get the cooperation of their tenants to apply for relief.
According to the National Rental Home Council, 11% of landlords were forced to sell at least one of their properties due to pandemic distress in 2021. 12% were forced to sell all of their properties.
@@JimFriend-iw3ev How can landlords keep getting rich *now* if their margins are *currently* being squeezed due to *currently* falling/stagnant revenues and *currently* rising costs?
They may have enjoyed the "riches" of exponentially rising rents *in the past*. But *now* is a challenging environment when rental supply is increasing.
Now, about those rich landlords....47% of all rental units (most SFH, duplexes, and triplexes) are owned by mom and pop investors. Many of them still have full time jobs. Many of them use their rentals as passive income as an alternative to
the stock market greater volatility.
Were the landlord reimbursement funds dispersed properly, efficiently, and effortlessly to the landlords? Relief funds were subject to state and local jurisdictions. Many landlords were required to get the cooperation of their tenants to apply for relief.
According to the National Rental Home Council, 11% of landlords were forced to sell at least one of their properties in 2021. 12% were forced to sell all of their properties. Many experienced decreased revenues.
Those numbers are very volitile. I like when a representative home is appraised every quarter. This data is provided at the California Polytechnic University, Pomona, RERC (Real Estate Research Council). It would be interesting to compare to that report.
The housing market isn’t the stock market it take a slow decline before anyone can scream crash. The GFC didn’t hit rock bottom till 2012. That’s with historically low interest rates getting down to 3% in 2012. The market didn’t start to recover till 2016. Unfortunately for the sideline people this will happen but it will take time.
Absolutely nothing you said was correct. 👌
@@jaydeeare285👍🏿
Very surprised that people can still buy in the calif. market. Not true everywhere else.
They're stretching themselves thin
@@yakemon 💯
buy and afford are different things. it'll be a while before we see who can actually afford them
@@yakemonYep, stub their toe and they are down for the count
A lot of $$ still in Ca like it or not
I didn’t see 1 coming this morning Jason!🤣😂
Good morning!
My concern is should I buy now before buyers have to pay commission to there agent or keep saving and wait it out
I don’t like telling people to buy or wait because I don’t know your financial situation. My advice to you if you can afford comfortably paying monthly mortgage and go for it. List below are my advice it worked for me.
1. Before buying a house Payoff all your consumer debt like credit card or car payment. No loan increase your buying power
2. Shop for rates and compare. I highly recommend independent broker because they have access to multiple lenders and compare to small banks. The lower the better.
3. Interview realtors and make sure they know the comps and rental in case if you need to move. You have options to rent it out and cash flow. Make sure they work on your best interest.
4. Have a goal. I’m an investor and I’m not looking for forever home so I’m only interested with cash flow properties.
5. Know your price range and don’t stretch your budget. If your price out expand your location. You can get it cheaper by having multiple locations
6. Live by your means and have a budget.
7. Make sure you have money saved up in case there’s emergency.
8. I tell people wait November to January because demand tends to decrease during winter or holiday season. Most buyer with children tend to stay in one place. The lower demand the more negotiating power you have.
9. Always have inspection.
10. Look for houses that’s been in the market over 60 days and offer below the market
11. Once you put an offer I’ll say write a love letter telling them you like their house and you have family and you see it perfect for your family
12. If you do put a strong offer tell your realtor the seller have until midnight to accept it. In That way you’re not giving them time to wait for another offer
Good luck to you
As of now there is no guarantee that buyers will need to pay their agents. There are talks that if this NAR settlement is approved, lenders may adapt their lending conditions allowing for agent commissions to be included into closing costs, but that’s also not guaranteed.
As an agent my advice would be to focus on the affordability right now. If it’s something you can comfortably afford and plan to live in for at least 5 years it might not be a bad time to buy before rates go down, as you have leverage in most markets over sellers and can probably get better prices, terms, or even closing costs included in some market (this will depend on market). There are a lot of buyers waiting for prices or rates to come down, so when they do, there might be a surge of buyers, which could drive prices up again.
If it’s going to be a strain financially, or you only plan to live there short-term, maybe not the best time. You need to love your house for what you will be paying at current rates. You may be able to refinance, but that also costs money, meaning you need to stay longer, and rates aren’t guaranteed to go back down.
I hope this helps you weigh the risks/rewards! 👍
Sellers can still offer buyers commissions and they will if they want to get their houses sold. Only difference now is it won't be advertised on MLS but one phone call from a buyers agent and they can be informed how.mjcb the commission is.
Glad I am waiting, the Kali market is unreasonable.
Are you waiting for the rates to go down? When rates go down (and they will eventually) … refresh your basic economics knowledge … demand goes up and so willllll ….. prices! That’s correct, good job!
@@genxtechguy not an expert, but the argument on the otherside, is rates go down then people with good interest rates are more willing to sell, then increasing inventory. I don't think prices will ever come down, but they will probably level out when that happens instead of a sharp increase.
@@ForbidenNinjathe problem is we have more demand than supply. I’ll give you an example I’m in San Diego there’s around 3.5 M population and 2,500 listings. That’s not a good ratio. Also I have 2.75 rate in my rental and 4.375 on primary home. I’ll never sell. Those rates are very low and I consider it as an asset. The crash bros failed to mention there are over 40% of homeowners had paid off their house which means no mortgage and not desperate to sell or they have time to wait until someone with deep pocket will pay for asking or over asking.
@@House_hacker_619during the GFC about 42% of homes were paid off in full. 130 million homes in the US, 1.2 are owned by hedge funds. 1.5 million short term rentals. Really just need less then .5-1% of homes in the US to come on the market to have a big effect on supply
@@clay6517Oh is that all ? 🤣
Thank you 🎉
Price collapse happens from the top down, as the last sales are people trying to trade down.
Thank you for the update on our beautiful state!!
You bet!
thousands of people fired in silicon valley and prices go up !!!??
Thousand were lay offs but there’s also hundred thousand of jobs opening. So what’s your point 😂
A survey of 1000 hiring managers revealed that half of them created job openings without the intention of hiring. If the labor market was so hot, the new jobs report would not be revised downward frequently nor would average weekly hours worked fall.
@@toinengwyn3935 okay where did get your survey let me guess crashbros? Okay I believe you just to make you feel good 😂
@@toinengwyn3935are you happy now 😂
@@House_hacker_619 it’s called consulting a news article. It’s also called reading beyond the headlines. Try it sometimes.
So the luxury home sales are pushing up average values overall?
That's a contributing factor
OH NO PRICES ARE RISING
In other words , no changes when it comes to affordability
What is happening??
THE HOUSING CRASH BEGINS IN 7 DAYS
7 days 12 hrs and 12 min 30 sec 😀
Crashbros had been saying that since 2016😂
Who are those people buying $1+ million homes?!
Stock market at the highest. Unemployment at the lowest. Why is the fed going to cut rates again?😂
It doesn't make common sense. Who is still buying in this market and still over asking? Especially knowing that Inflation hasn't come down so your expenses are more, home owner insurance is more expensive in Cali, and the most obvious interest rates are still high.. what has to happen to put on the Emergency brake since I don't think a crash is realistic
The average sales price is being pushed up due to a larger concentration of buyers at the higher end. The more affluent are less rate sensitive than the average buyer.
@@toinengwyn3935Yes that's how "averages" are calculated. Thanks for the detailed breakdown captain obvious.
@@jaydeeare285 jaydog/whateveryournextloginis averages don’t get often skewed by the high end unless the market is severely unbalanced - like it was prior to the GFC. Now, go try scrounging something more substantive than condescension.
@@toinengwyn3935 You know someone doesn't know anything about the housing market when their only frame of reference is continually 2008.
@@jaydeeare285 jaydog/whateveryournextloginis
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
What? You think that the GFC was the only time that we've experienced bubbles? This time is different and we now can print ourselves into perpetual prosperity?
Can I get one of your other logins to upvote my post?
USDA Rural Direct mortgage interest rate is now 4.5%, 0 down, no PMI and very low closing (can be rolled into loan). It takes several months, though, for the process.
Timw to live in the country side!
What is wrong with people in California?
Nothing wrong with people in California. Blame it on supply and demand
It always amazed me people believed the TH-cam crash bros ….. the crash bros got richer as the gullible waited and got poorer by renting … sad state of affairs …. If they print money EVERYTHING WILL ALWAYS GET MORE EXPENSIVE
🚀🚀🚀
Good thing a lot of people here waited to buy a house right?
It was obvious from the start that prices are headed higher because the government hasn't stop spending.
he is lying his butt off, its gona crash just be patient
@@professorprofessorson8795been saying same thing for years. It’s called supply and demand . Too bad I listened to you idiot crash bros
When rent is half the cost to own, absolutely it’s good they waited.
@professorprofessorson8795 houses gonna go up another 500% and crashed 50% making the median house still around 400k. Buy now or forever rent.
Limited housing in California a combination of home owners locked in under 3% .
High interest rates .
That’s why California is relaxed laws in ADU .
I don’t see a crash anytime soon.
Up
Up
And away with prices .
🤙🏽🌴🇺🇸
Don't come to Texas, please
No it didn’t lol
I have a tent, outdoor shower and space in my backyard he can rent it for 1k per month😂
What's "it"?