How Erdogan "Saved" Turkey's Economy
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2024
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0:00 - introduction
2:27 - sponsor
3:44 - dollarization
8:19 - huge trade deficits
10:06 - an unorthodox solution
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what is your opinion about DW? as a german would interest me
I lived in Turkey and I have close ties. I would put this also in context to the expiration of the Lausanne Treaty next year. A lot of milage in those thoughts.
@@atlaskama5159 I'm not chewing, btw. I'm just observing and pointing it out.
You are a G for making this video!
Our sheeps are still unaware of the problem, dude 😆😆😆
Abi ülkemin ekonomisini yabancı kanallardan öğreniyorum, inanılmaz
Bu her zaman boyle oluyor, bagimsiz yabanci kaynaklar hic cekinmeden Turkiye nin ekonomisini anlatiyorlar..
Herre
Niye hacı ekonomi bilimini biz mi keşfettik
Bizde nasil derler? COK DUY AS INAN, bu adam cok seyleri dis birakti , # 1 kac defa America Lirayi mahsus dusurdu, Ingiltere ayni , ve halen bizim icerdeki satilmislar bunlarla beraber calisir Turkiyenin onune dag kadar cok kutuk atanlar var , insallah bizim hukumet bunlarida atlatr,
içerde konuşanları hapise gönderiyorlar çünkü
I study economics and we were supposed to choose a topic of our own and present a 40 pages analysis on it. I have been researching on Turkish Debt Crisis since May 2022 and this is the first video that perfectly explains the reason why the economy kept falling. Thank you very much
LOL I'm a Turk studying economics and people keep asking me how the economy will be fixed, I respond I have nothing to say because the economy we study in the university and the economy we practice in Turkey are quite the opposite and I am quite confused which one to take seriously, I'll better stick to the economy I study instead of trying to understand what's going out in my country.
@@HermesTheWildcat 🤣🤣🤣 you said it succinctly. A whirlwind economy cannot be understood by the practices of the people who create the whirlwind conditions.
@@HermesTheWildcat do you think Venezuelas economy is in shambles because of poor management? Or because of sanctions? same with Cuba? Iran? all examples of what USA and western sanctions can do. Turkiye is not only fighting wars left and right, they are surrounded by wars. Turkiye is home to the largest amount of refugees from all over the place. Turkiye offers UNIVERSAL Healthcare and education to its citizens. Turkiye had AN AMAZING network of public transportation and infrastructure NOW! Turkiye offers education and amenities to every corner of its borders now, before Erdoğan MANY cities, towns, villages didn't have proper roads, electricity, water; airports, schools. Turkiye has a GREAT medical sector NOW with cheap affordable medicine. Turkiye is also surrounded by enemies, NO OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD DEALS WITH AS MUCH AS TURKIYE DOES AND STILL SURVIVES, even with the wars and sanctions and public services I mentioned. MAŞALLAH to Turkiye and its strong people for refusing to be puppets of America and the West and keeping themselves and intrests strong and protected.
@@haashaas2508 Well either you have no proper knowledge what’s going on here or you just try to fool me. Just let me tell you the countries you mention now face the consequences of the corrupted governments, even though sanctions of the West play a role to a some extent. But the major problem lies INSIDE, you can not just put the blame on “external factors”(!) while INTERNAL FACTORS remains alongside. Same applies for Turkey too although it is not sanctioned by West. You say Turkey rejected to be a puppet of the West, and might I ask when exactly did that happen? I thought Turkey was the second largest army of the NATO and hosting 104 NATO bases inside its borders. And even if it is so, does it make you any better if you are at odds with West but be a pawn for Russia, China or even if you are an independent country but still living the Middle Age, like Afghanistan under Taliban rule? I don’t say external factors play no role, considering the fact that a globalised economy even punishes you by military aggressions if it sees necessary(like the US invasion of Iraq or Russian occupation of Ukraine very recently). But doesn’t it also show that you are not strong enough to overcome the difficulties you confront, and ISN’T IT YOUR FAULT IN THE VERY FIRST PLACE THAT YOU GET FOOLED AND DEFEATED BY YOUR OPPONENTS?
@@HermesTheWildcat Goes to show where your loyalty stands with. I am VERY VERY AWARE of what's going on in Turkiye. Do you know what's going on elsewhere? You think the grass is greener anywhere else. People in Turkiye cry about not having money, but most have summer homes and out all day smoking getting tea and hanging out shopping ang getting coffee refusing to work. I was just there saw it with my own eyes. Don't give me that bullshit. Erdoğan is in the public eye working for his country and keeping the west and their puppets to task everyday. Why do you think Greece, 90% EU, USA, Armenia, pkk; isis, Iran, Israel, France, UEA, Egypt, Saudi and LITERALLY all enemies of Islam and Turks want to see him gone! Cause they know it will be easy to take away things from Turks once he is gone. Either You are with the Enemies of Turkiye and pretending to be a Turk, or you are a Brainless pkk supporting fake Turk
Hello, I'm reaching out from Turkey. Thank you for the well thought video. You have explained the Turkish economy more clearly than the most economists in Turkey.
Most economists in turkey aren't educated enough to understand Erdogan and company..
Heres something you may find interesting. :)
The name of my country has nothing to do with the interesting and delicious bird 'turkey'......
.....but the name of the bird does have a connection with the name of my country, let me explain. :)
In the past 40 years 37 countries have changed their name.
Obviously one can not change the name of an apple or an orange etc in other languages,
but country names are like peoples' individual names, so if you're named John we don't call you Karen. :)
Name of my country has always been Türkiye, it's been known as such since around the 1200's.
The name it self has a suffix, '-iye', that is Turk-iye, where the -iye suffix means 'land of/belonging to',
just like the Latin suffix of '-ia', which exists in such country names like
Austr-ia, Austral-ia, Indones-ia etc.
Basically, the use of '-iye/-ia' is the same as the the use of '-land' suffix in country names like
Ire(Eire)-land, Po(le)-land, Eng(Anglo)-land and so on and so on.
Many would remember the country Czechoslovak-ia which changed it's name to Czech Republic and a few years ago changed that to Czechia (that is Czech-ia).
The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish been over 10,000 years is much older than Latin which is around 1300 years old.
Spelled in different languages in different ways to phonetically resemble (to sound like) 'Türkiye'
we got various spellings like;
Turq-uía (in Spanish),
Turch-ia (in Italian),
Turq-uie (in French)
Turk-ei (in German)
Turk-ey (in English)
Mind you this was way before the animal we currently know as turkey was found by the europeans when they explored the north americas. The bird was first sent to europe from north americas in the year 1519, so up until that point there was no bird named turkey....
...they came across the bird and thought it was a specie of the fowl/chicken they had been buying from the country of Turkiye at the time, so they named the bird 'Turkey Fowl' to define 'Turkish Chicken'...
....just like how a dog breed is known as German Shepherd (because it's from Germany), American Bulldog, British Terrier, Greek Harehound etc etc.
In time you don't get to call the harehound simply as Greek or you don't call the terrier Britirsh, or shepherd as simply German,
but in time the Turkish Fowl started to be called just 'Turkey' and later 'turkey', and this went on for hundreds of years.
Now in modern times, this caused confusion, especially when we have people across the world unable to point to their own country on an atlas.
Basically we didn't change the name of our country, we changed the mistake made in the English language. : )
So, there's some tid bit information for you to have a great day, if you read upto this point you have a great night too, ohh just have a wonderfull life. : )
Best wishes. ;)
@@KenanTurkiye You wrote such a long thesis that is mostly accurate , but then, true to your Turkish propaganda filled upbringing you wrote "The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish been over 10,000 years is much older than Latin which is around 1300 years old."
Did you bother to at least do a Google search to validate your statement. But like most Turks who grew up in years of endless dictatorships you have eaten so much propaganda you cannot see the facts and truth even if it was in front of your nose.
First of all Latin is NOT 1300 years old. It is 2700 old and Greek (the base for Latin) is more than 3000 years old. And the Turks didnt arrive in Anatolia until 1000 bringing no Turkish alphabet with them. This is the reason Turks had to borrow Latin to learn how to read. So do yourself a favor and use Google before you post nonsense
Now, as far as the name, unfortunately for "Turkey" we live in an English dominated world so until that changes (probably never) the country will be known by "Turkey" so get used to it.
11 months later and the lira continued to fall in value, so his plan did not work. I don't understand why Turkish people voted for Erdogan. The only real solution is to raise interest rates a lot higher.
He already did , the problem if he did it more than that , that will make ppl lazy if you understand me
i had a hair transplant in turkey. they are good with handling recessions.
🤣🤣
😆😆😆😆
😂😂😂
Turkey has good tourist sites, mining, manufacturing sector, agriculture sector. It's geo strategic location makes its important for Russia, Arabs, Europe, USA , China and Azerbaijan. It just needs to play it's cards right. Pakistan also had geo strategic location but it didn't play it's card well and on verge of bankruptcy
💫TURKIYE #";-/IS BIGER THN\-;"# TURKIYE 🏇,,🏇,🏇..🐎🏹🍎🌍🎯🤔....
It's not enough just to have a beautiful country in the crossroads of continents, you have to be smart, look at Switzerland, this country has only big high cold mountains and yet is one of the richest countries in the world
@@immortal2534 thats the only country in the world
PAKSITAN has nothing. PAK Army owns an illiterate terrorist country. They sell it to the highest payer and beg for loans.
Tourism is cut down by bad foreign relations,mining is sold at give away rates,agriculture is dead or dying,corruption strips masses from good living standards,.I am glad you are an optimist but I am not.
Thank you so much for this video! I've only heard of the issues they've had in the past year or so but didn't know about the few years before that. This was well explained and at a level your viewer can understand.
You dont need this video. Simple summary erdogan is uneducated bus driver just like Maduro and he is selling his country to Russia Arabs to keep the currency stable before the elections in May.
Just subbed. Thank you for your valuable research and explanation.
The visualization of your videos is really good! Thanks for explaining things in a way that helps everyone understand them!
Hainler
I gotta say, completely off topic, I think the logo of this channel is really good
Agreed, unlike the new economics explained logo
Thank you Carlos. I will tell the guy that designed it. If you scroll down on the channel page you can see what the old one used to look like. Same idea. But, terribly designed.
@@MoneyMacro
The old one is really terribly designed 😅
@@fly463 true ... I did that myself 🤣
Very keen observations and summary. I think they're spot on.
I belive that that would be lira-ization if we are building this word from the structure of dolar-ization 😊 Think that there was also a subtle dig at Türkiye by so often repeating "lirarization" at the end, but that it was subtle is still an improvement in comparison to the approach of so many.
In a way, Erdogan already did this once, when he secured assistance from China in return for selling out on the Uygurs. It bought some time, but once the money ran out, the Lira started to slide again.
Selling out on the Uyghurs? Oh, didn't know Turkiye owned East Turkestan/ Xinjiang. Best Turkiye can do is focussing on existing economic ties to influence the Chinese. Everything else is nonsense from people who mix their fantasies with realpolitik. Plus: have yet to see any change from China after US deemed their treatment of Uyghurs as genocide. Btw, deeming a nation as genocidal, yet continuing to do big time business with them feels like the very definition of a clown world to me. 🤡
Erdogan is a Turkish belly dancer ,now , whoever throws gold,he will wide open those thighs
“Selling out the Uyghur”, thanks dude that just repeats debunked Western media uncritically.
"assistance from China in return for selling out on the Uygurs" , emptiest claim.
@@TheNera2010 ikr
8:34 - A minor correction. Tourists were not shut out of the country. On the contrary, everything was done to promote tourists coming - which is understandable because their economy depends on it. Yes, there was less tourism because a lot of the world was not willing to travel, but to say they were "shut out" is a bit incorrect.
👍
If a country depends on tourists then it can't do much. Tourism can only do so much. Some of the biggest tourist attractions (i.e. Paris, Roma, New York) have tourism as a small percentage of its revenues. If you depend on tourism alone, you are bound to fail to provide good living to your residents. You rely on tourism because you are unable to do anything else. That is the problem. Not the lack of tourism.
@@cmdr.shepard its 10% of the turkish economy , what do you mean by saying relying on tourism alone ? lol
Biraz kendine gelistir@@cmdr.shepard
I will never thank you enough for your insights/studies/explanations..
Awesome reporting.
If you're interested, there was a president in Argentina that took a similar path to solve two consecutive hiperinflation crisis. Basically sold the country to private investors. He was called Carlos Menem (knock on wood)
There is no privatization happening in Turkiye though. Erdogans AKP privatized many lame and corrupt state owned companies in the early 2000s and this was successful for most parts and the inflation decreased for the first time after a decades of hyperinflation. The situation even allowed the resetting of the hyperinflated currency by throwing away 6 decimal places, a 1.000.000 Lira became 1 Lira in 2005. Inflation was always high except for pre-1970 and 2002-2017 because of many military interventions and wars.
@@roenin so turkey state is still a labour-oriented state?
@@ethandouro4334 Don't know what you mean by that. Trade laws are pretty liberal.
@@roenin No no, not the 'murican definition of liberal, I meant, is the Turkish Trade and Labour laws more oriented to what was the soviet state or what's closer to the american state?
@@ethandouro4334 No serious economist uses that dicotemy... the world is more complicated than the usa and ussr.....
Useful app introduced and content is satisfying
Your sponsors are always interesting :D
While it is normally expected that when a country's currency depreciates so much, it helps with trade deficits. Something different happened in Turkey. Turkey actually used to had a trade surplus when energy imports were excluded. However recently due to the falling Lira, gold imports skyrocketed as people demands gold as a store of value, creating a vicious cycle.
I also think there was a lot of expedited capital goods imports and inventories because of the expectation of further depreciation.
without energy Turkey still has a good trade surplus though
@@sonproducton printing money is everywhere, look worthless US$,
it is very important to quickly go to the ecomony of olla. khalifa erdogwan will move to a riba free ecomony, inshaolla 🤣🤣🤣🤣
[dont tell the khalifa that for zero riba to work you also need to fight wars, trade slaves and impose jiziya]
@@und3rcut535 if energy imports are ignored , a lot of countries become net exporters
The only channel that makes sense.
Other channel would just copy paste what the media would say without explaining the economics side.
Bruh he even imported new voters into the country and was able to win the last presidential elections
Good work
thanks for the analysis, how you relate to all these with the high GDP growth , and the spectacular stock exchange rise that Turkish economy experience's at present
When inflation is running high, people invest their savings in the stock market as a hedge. Apes buy, market go up. Same thing happened with the Iranian stock market.
@@edpatel713 theory from your 4ss xD
Thanks Joeri! You are way more clear than EE. Mainly because the questions you ask seem logical. Great video
EE seems to make his videos filled with points, but doesn’t tie them together well
Nope EE is better because he tells us all the facts in a nice way. Not on high like this.
@@nishant54 he doesn't say all the facts though -- he very often rambles on about stuff that's peripheral to the video topic. He also gets a lot wrong -- I remember him saying flight prices will increase five or even tenfold after the pandemic, hasn't happened. Others things as well
@@seadkolasinac7220 It's happened in india due to inflation not 5 but 2-3.
@@nishant54 inflation happens around the world is dollar based inflation which effected whole world, but the world's major economies is working to fixed (de-dollarization)
Hmmm... from an economic neophyte, did was the economy affected by the fact that the general population switched to dollar or euro? And is there something to say that since the Lira free fall, it is hard for the currency value to continue falling at the same rate??
Birinci sınıf iktisat öğrencisiyim ve seneye Erasmusa gideceğim için yabancıların fikirlerini çok merak ediyordum fakat konuya öyle güzel hakim ki… henüz birinci sınıf olsam da dediklerinin hepsini anladım ve durum cidden içler acısı…
@@Eeee-mg3xy 6 aya kalmadan temmuz ayında büyük bir buhran olacağını düşünüyorum ben, gelecek maaş zamları her şeyi tetikleyecek, dolar zaten 26 seviyesine gelir, şu an stabilize ediliyor, kuru ekmeği yirmi liraya alacağız gibi gözüküyor, işsizlik artacak ve enflasyon zaten aldı başını gidiyor :(
5:58 is this the definition of exchange rate pass through? Great video love the new channel format! Love and support from Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 ❤️
Do you know a video with a better explanation? I had trouble understanding this part.
Zeer goede, duidelijke uitleg. Als niet-econoom begrijp ik, dankzij jouw professionele uitleg, meer over het reilen en zeilen in de wereld. Top!👌
In goed Nederlands noemen we dat een econoom ;)
@@wasneeplus wtf eco"coom"
I'd never thought that Dutch have Coom(Masturbate) Economy
Başkanınıza söyleyin de dalga geçmeyi bıraksın, sömürge ve kölecilik günümüzde Hollanda'da devam ediyor :D
@@junait4519 Katarla karıştırdın herhalde.
@@junait4519 canım başkanım ülkesi için bir şeyler yapıyor sen de başkanına söyle de halkını sömüreceğine düzgün bi sömürge bulsun. gücü yeterse :D
Erdugan is very smart. I like him. He knows how to play like nobody. Italy and others want to do the same thing when it come to relation with Russia.
much thanks for this explanation
Could you do a video on South America situation? Brazil is forming a new government and Argentina seems to re-lapse into International agenda
Saudi arabia needs a protector. US left saudi arabia and uae in cold so saudies are seeking partners in middle east. Turkey has shown that it is better to be his friend instead of his enemy. Turkey saved Qatar from invasion. Kicked out allied forces Russia, Uea, Egypt, Saudi arabia from tripoli. Turkey has huge impact in africa, central asia. Having Turkey as a friend will help all these countries.
Turkey is no friend of middle east,when West attacks ,always Turkey Nato helped West.But it is politics no friends
@@hadhad5131 If you are powerfull enough you will need no friend. Others will want to make you friend. Turkey was absulately alone in libya, only maybe qatar financially helped. Turkey was againts russia, france, greece, saudi arabia, uae and egypt. But turkey has changed the tides againts all of them. Turkey demonstrated its power and now it is more powerfull than that of 2019.
@Riman India is very islamophobic which doesn’t help its relations with Muslim countries.
@Riman no
@@user-qo1rd6ub8h
Who told you to follow India?
thank you for the video bro
Can you do a reading of the Saudi or Egyptian economy, please? I want to benefit, especially since there are no channels that give you a clear picture of the progress of these economies.
Saudi got money from religious visits snd petrol. They are making lots from these 2 sectors
@@davyjones1221 Erdogan told you this? 😂 Iraq has oil, Syria has oil, Turkey has oil, Libya, South America ect.. Yet look at them. It's not the oil. It's good leadership that cares about their people
Erdogan did what we call in the UK 'a reverse ferret' - a sudden reversal in an organisation's editorial or political line on a certain issue. Generally, this will involve no acknowledgement of the previous position.
I dont understant explain detail what is reverse ferret
@@GoodGame-yr7ri He meant a 'U-Turn' w/o the acknowledgement to have made something wrong, I think.
@@GoodGame-yr7ri Think of a ferret climbing up your leg under the trousers then getting stopped by your belt, doing a quick u turn and coming back down. Possibly having a sly snack on your genitals in the process.
Oh really? Is that the reason why the UK has been in an economic recession since 2007? I WONDER WHY THE UK HAS NOT RECOVERED YET!
@@kadinyazarsa835 Actually the UK was still quite strong in 2007. It was 2008 when the shit hit the fan and theres been loads of more shit happening since then like Brexit.
Liz Truss's sharp U turn after her beloved markets didn't like Kwarteng's mini budget is a textbook classic example of a reverse ferret.
You should visit my neighbours house wearing loose bottomed trousers. She's got 5 ferrets, at least 2 of which are patroling the floor at any one time. They will be immediately atttracted to you, wondering if there's enough of a tunnel between fabric and skin for them to navigate. If they decide there is, it's better to undo your belt to provide them with an escape route.
You explained our economy very well. I really like your videos, thank you.
Glad you like them!
he didn't explain sh1t. educate yourself not through youtubers
@@MoneyMacro I think you forgot to mention in your video that there are literally 3 wars going on, on Turkey's border. Be it Syrian conflict and YPG incursion in south. The Ukraine war in north, and Karabagh conflict east.
The fact that this country's economy is even standing is a miraculous to me, given that Germans and Europeans are on streets protesting at same time.
@@MoneyMacro if I was in head of turkey I wıll give it to you a medal :D
Joeri and Patrick "Jason Statham of the Macroeconomics" Boyle are the best TH-cam economists.
It is a great video. Very explanatory and easy to follow. Thanks for your efforts.
Very happy to hear that!
I wisit turkey 7 time ı love the country looks amazing night life people food loved ı wish will be good guys love u from Qatar
The fact that they could manage the currency with an unconventional method through trade with other nations is impressive. I think you should dig deeper on how this could work and what are the elements that make this successful to just raising interest rates, and effectiveness in hypothetical cases of countries applying this approach.
There is no "unconventional method through trade". They'll just use the dollars to buy liras, artificially increasing its value. It doesn't fix anything, and as soon as they'll run out of dollars the lira will start falling again.
yea.. this is interesting, whether its because simply by government intervention or its by economic it self ( imean low interest rate keep people productive)
They haven't really traded though, even though they enjoyed a bit more trade thanks to being neutral in the Ukrainian conflict, most solution have been financial (lira-ization) or political (loan from foreign countries). Since we don't really have the details on the financial solution to limit dollarization (how can they protect from FX-variation? to what extend?), we can only assume so far the signal had a positive effect but for how long? Conserving the loans don't get it wrong those are IOU that Turkey will have to pay either by making non-beneficial political decisions or by selling pennies on the dollar to said creditors (a method not so different from what Europeans used to do to justify conflict with foreign nation, or what is actually doing China with most of its suppliers). So Erdogan has had 1) no noticeable effect on trade, 2) a bit of luck with the global context and 3) has made some dangerous deals with former geopolitical opponents. Hope he gets what he wants (re-election) cause what comes after may be even worse that what he had to face so far.
Let me give you insight from inside. I am a man from a group of people currently facing genocide from erdoğan regime. erdoğan is giving qatar and uae treaty ports for those couple of billion dollars he took. He is not doing trade. He is literally selling the country for that amount of dollars. erdoğan has no means to payback those loans and arabs know this. instead they accept the payment as land. Study 🦃 well because this will be an emotional roller coaster. You will see how a country gets destroyed from inside. Dont make the mistake which islamists in 🦃 made.
@@thibautnarme6402 not old enough tocompate, but if we compare last 2 decasdes vs pre erdogan, is there any significant progressby his administration? just curious...
Great video as always !!
Great analysis. But how is this “ selling out” Turkey? Only one of these is a loan, and to a long-time ally too ( as you yourself have suggested).
Adamın örnek açtığı PDF makalesinde Can Dündar in makalesi var ya şaka gibisiniz bu kadar belli etmeyin 😃
I have to say, I think ur the first person online whose anaylsis was proven right. When you did the video abt Turkey months ago, the outcome now is like predicted
It would've been interesting if you had continued the video a bit further to describe the possible ways the foreign loans could backfire in the future. Good video, thank you.
He explained it briefly. It's when the government doesn't manage these loans well, it could become a real problem.
Let the sailor be the sage of the sea. Finance and exports will grow bigger and better when you have chosen the right allies.
@@bouroudji And if Erdoğan loses the elections, people are going to blame the new government for the problem.
We won't pay, we won't trade
In addition to that, Turkey subsequently has been affected by huge earthquakes. According to JP Morgan's report, Turkey`s estimated loss is around 25 billion dollars. Many people died and the others who are affected are homeless right now. This will also reflect on the Turkish economy as well.
Yes, there were earthquakes, but even 7-8 months after the aftershocks and major earthquakes were over, no houses were built for the Turkish people, on the contrary, our so-called smart president evacuated the people, it would be more accurate to say that there is an Arab majority in cities like Hatay instead of Turkish people, They give 100s of millions of dollars in aid to African countries and finally, 1 year after the earthquake, there are still thousands of deaths and more people died than the number said, but they hide it from us + as a bonus, they take those who criticize Erdogan (farmers) through the mafia, torture them and make them apologize by force, there is even a video of this, in short, it would be more correct to say that the country is not governed by democracy (I hope I was able to explain with my broken English)
thank you for the video. I wish you also touched upon how the unorthodox methods affect the unemployment rate. I believe it's among the reasons for the interest cuts. that being said I'm not an economist so I could be way off on that.
''tukiye satilik'' yazmis bir kopege tesekkur ediyorsun?
anani kaca satiyorsun? bacin karin kizin kaca?
Great video as always sir 🔮🫲🏻🫱🏻🔮
The easiest way to succeed in any field is to work on it consistantly, and consistancy is the key to success. I experienced my self. By the way, thanks for the uploads , a fellow creator.
what about now? what do you think? after this devastating earthquake? can you reanalyze the situation?
Thanks!
Quality content as usual, offering different perspectives from the norm and quite interesting at that.
Very good and clear explanation for people not in the economy field. Your PhD title is the answer that how you explained this topic clearly. Thank you Dr. :)
Adam dümdüz kufretseydi yine hosuna giderdi , adamin doktorlugunu övmüşsun ama , soylediklerinde nerde bilimsellik var , tamamen siyasi bir sekilde propaganda yapmis , senin parani yakmis hic mi onuruna dokunmuyor , onun burda sacmaladigini sen uykunda sayiklarsin kendine de haksizlik etme
Fallacy
I really like your videos, can you do a video about the Egyptian economy?
😂😂😂 we are shit mate
when i saw the title i laughed
You are explaning Turkey's economy is better than our economists and politicians. I love your yt channel.
Ülkenin adı Türkiye
@@IM-3000 Almanya deme de Deutchland de o zaman. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri deme de United States of America de o zaman. Norveç deme de Norge de o zaman. Japonya deme de Nihon de o zaman.Macaristan deme de Magyarország de o zaman. Birleşik Krallık deme de United Kingdom de o zaman. Polonya deme de Polska de o zaman. Ermenistan deme de Hayastan de o zaman. Kore deme de Hangug de o zaman. İsveç deme de Sverige de o zaman. Hırvatistan deme de Hrvatska de o zaman. Hollanda deme de Nederland de o zaman.
@@yasinayas5343 TÜRKIYE bi tarihi araştır öğren, kendi soyismini hindi koyarsın
@@yasinayas5343 Türkiye, Turkiye...senin isminde son of turkey olsun
@UCPgaHgshDws9q5qGg9eaq_A tmm hindi...biz kurtarıyoriz zaten, sen uyu
it was a very informative video you have exlained it very well thank you for that. I could easily understand what were the reasons for the downfall of the turkish currency.
There is a bright future for Türkiye’s economy and defense industry. Continue finding new gas reserves 🇹🇷
I was wondering why the exchange rates stabilised so thanks for the clear explanation.
Turkish Economist here. Very good video however the reason the lira stabilized was much more about the dollar protected lira bank accounts. It has little to do with getting a few billion from neighboring countries. If a country is gonna be under a currency attack like the uk was in the 90s a few billion wont save it, it has to be an endless source of money. Thats where this essentially new form of reverse qe comes into play. The turkish central bank which can print endless liras protects the lira against the dollar via these bank deposit accounts. I wont b surprised if other developing countries use this same strategy to protect against inflation during spikes of international monetary inflows and outflows.
@@verdiG abi senin meslegin nedir? Git keynesin kitaplarini oku sonra gel burda yorum yaz. Quantativr easing nedir bir araştır. Buda ona benzer bir merk3z bankasi araci
If the dollarization of the Turkiye depends on being a loyal dog for the western investors, To me, being dependent on western companies or investors are the worst choice for Turkiye's economy. You have mentioned Daron Acemoglu, a Turkish economist in MIT who is a strict defender for the neo-liberal economic laws. It has been tried before, which leads the country in a fantasy world or an economic wealth illusion because the main source of the money is foreign investors. And it comes with a pricetag, when your people's interests are not aligning with the foreign investors interests, for sure, they immediately take back the candy they would have been providing. If Turkiye wants to stabilize its economy, then the government must find a way to reduce the energy costs and start producing high quality high-tech products together with tourism and farming,
Of course agriculture is so significant because we take wheats from India...
[If Turkiye wants to stabilize its economy, then the government must find a way to reduce the energy costs and start producing high quality high-tech products together with tourism and farming,] This is very literally what Daron Acemoğlu stated. Taking in foreign investment isn't inherently bad, there's been many countries that have propelled through it. What matters is what you do with that money and Turkiye hasn't invested it into developing its industries. Instead, Erdoğan has used it to make his family rich. You complain of western investors yet you think Russia and Saudis won't have an agenda?
Agree, you have to make your economy independent from the west investors, because these investors are controlled by their governments they are not independent and they will screw you when they want too, instead of waging a war against you they will pull out investors to tumble your economy.
@@cjohnson3836 Of course we are very well aware of the agendas. I have read Daron's books, now what I dont understand is why you are backing him up? We will find our own way out of this struggle, what we dont need is some more western advisors.
@@tyaprak I'm not backing him up. I'm pointing out that the cited statements, which were presented in this video, say the exact thing you state he doesn't state. Acemoğlu is clearly stating Turkiye needs to develop strong endogenous service and tech, that Turkiye needs to innovate. The obstacles to that aren't "The West". You sound like Putin. "The West" didn't force Turkish politicians to use their positions to enrich themselves and centralize power at the expense of developing the country and progressing the population. Turkish elites did that themselves, and your voters kept giving them the power to do it. That's on you. Not "The West". And Erdoğan is selling you out to Russia to fatten his family, not "The West". Look at how that's worked out for Central Asia. Your wolf pack types are no different than Brits, chasing dead empires. Failing to realize you could be one of the most influential voices in Europe if you could get along. Because Russia certainly isn't seeing you as equals.
Daron Acemoğlu is not a famous professor in Turkey. As a matter of fact, his economic advice caused Armenia to deteriorate even more.
A few notes to consider.
1. Saudi Arabia is NOT Turkeys "enemy".
2. Qatar is NOT Saudi Arabia's rival. Sure there were some diaputed but Qataris are brothers. Litteraly the same ppl same families...
Finally, a strong Turkey is of more benefit to Muslims than a weak one. This probably flies in the face of your ideology but that is the crux of it. Dispute, differences, conflict... Call it whatever you like they shall pass and mutual interests will some day, hopefully, allign.
At 7:43, I did not understand how the liraization strategy worked. Reading online it seems securities maintenance ratio means how much percent of the bank assets should be bonds. I could not find anything that explains what currency these bonds are and why increasing the securities maintenance ratio makes lira more attractive.
Other than the above I learnt lot about Turkiye’s financial state, thanks for the informative video.
Liralization*
Basically you keep lira in the bank with interest rate. But if the lira loses more value against the dollar than what the interest rate is offering, then the government will pay the difference. So the government is giving you a security against lira depreciation against the dollar.
It didn’t work. What did was U.S. sanctions on Russia and China. After which Russia and China started routing purchases through Turkey, that is what stabilize the Lira for now. The video does not mention the 80+ inflation rate, or the fact that the traditional strategy of raising the interest rates was attempted and worked until the head of the central bank was fired.
@@JakeSDN inflation is slowing down
It did not 'work', it was a an ultimatum to the banks , companies and Banks were being forced to use Lira if not facing penalties, and extra taxes, it was a coordinated effort from the government to save face.
I swear, this Channel is such a gem. The explanation is always easy to follow and very well represented and (which is for me really good to see/hear) as a viewer its easy to see where the thoughtprocess is coming from. Because of that I can understand the point, even tho I might not be convinced that a particular theory is right or wrong.
Yüksek faiz ile paranızın değerini bugün koruyabilirsiniz ama borcunuzun ödeme vadesi geldiği gün paranızın değeri düşer. Türkiye arjantin brezilya bunun en güzel örnekleridir.
@@TalayGOKSU camış, TL nin gerçek değerini seçimden sonra görürsün.. TL nin düşmesini engellemek için ayda 10 milyar dolar dolar olarak birisinin cebine girerken, karşılığında TL basıldığı için zincirleme enflasyon yaşanıyor.
Sığırların anladığı şeyi anlamayan insana ne denir bilmiyorum. Ben arz talep dengesinden bahsetmişim bazı mahlukatlar bambaşka şey saçmalamış.
@@TalayGOKSU itoglu it ''turkiye satilik'' yazmis!?
ona NEDEN hic itirazin yok?
vatani olmayanin parasi olur mu?
mezari olur mu?
@@ihanet-Yorgunu istediği kadar yazsın. Cahilliğinden yazmış. Tarih boyunca kim olursa olsun bu topraklarda ev sahibi olmak için ödediği bedelle dünyanın 3de 1ni alır. Ve bu bedel parayla pulla altınlarla yakutlarla paha biçen varsa kendi kendine oynayan bir akılsızdan başkası değildir.
Çünkü Dünya'nın merkezi bilimsel olarak yani matematiksel olarak Türkiye, ister Müslüman Olsun ister hristiyan yada bilmem ne insanlığın başkenti İstanbul ve bunun gibi nice bilimsel istatistiksel bilim ile destekli neden ama en en önemlisi bilinçli yada bilinçsiz olarak her insan doğası gereği tüm insanların atası olan Hz Adem A.S.'ın yaşadığı köy Anadolu'da birçok peygamberin memleketi bu topraklarda. Yani insanlık bilinçli yada bilinçsiz ata topraklarına sahip olmak isterken. Hangi parayla nereyi satın alacaksınız? Darphaneler harıl harıl değerli para bassalar dahi bu topraklardan gelip geçen yolculuk geçiş ücretinden başka neyin bedelini ödeyebilirler ki? Bu toprakların bedelini ödeyebilecek tek milllet biziz onun için diğerlerinin en azılısı en güçlüsü en cesuru ancak zincirlerle bağlı bir itin ürümesinden fazlasını yapmaya güçleride cesaretleri de yetmez.
Misal bizim en azılı en dengesiz en ac gözlü düşmanımız olan ABD dünyanın tek v rakipsiz süper gücü olduğunu dönem dahi olsa Türkiye'ye savaş ilan etse sadece harcayacağı masrafa Amerikan halkı ilk yılda devleti en az 41 parçaya böler ki o da küçük ve fakir nüfusu olmayan eyaletleri birlikte hareket edip birbirlerinin açığını kapatmak için olurdu. Geçiş ücretini ödemekle köprü sahibi olunmaz. Bu coğrafyayı para ile alacağını sananlarda yada para ile satanlarda da it kadar yada herhangi başka bir hayvan kadar dahi akıl fikir çalışır halde beyin ahlâk namus gibi şeylerden zerre nasibi yoktur.
Can you do the same reading of the Saudi economy?
I want to benefit from you
I hope that the Arabic translation will remain in your videos
You havent mentioned the currency coverage deposit strategy
It is Bond Market Investors' long-term investors such as Pensions, who buy the safest financial assets. Financial stability is tied to the country's ability to project military and economic influence. This is why politically unstable countries have much higher interest on their bonds to compensate for the greater risk of holding the bond for 20 years.
Lol you literally explained whats goin on in my country, better than anyone else... really good explanation even me could understand it, thanks a lot!
Apptalım diyorsun yani ben bile anladım diyorsun 🫠
@@Dxtrca evet
@@egementandogan2635 Ne güzel insanın kendini tanıması da iyi bisey 😎
And you forgot one thing, the bankers.Great illustration.
The thumbnail is misleading. It was investment and not sell.
Even the dude who makes videos on Turkish economy doesn't buy lira, he just re-used the old footage.
Now I actually believe he knows something about finance and accumulating wealth.
You have a sharp eye. I did re-use that footage. I had actually borrowed the Lira's at the time from friends who frequently visit Turkey.
@@MoneyMacro sad :(
@@MoneyMacro If you somehow decide to visit Turkey and need a handsome local man let me know, considering this won't be the last video about Turkish economy, maybe you would one day would like to see things in person. The whole thing is bread and butter to economy channels. Also, I am on the internet which means you can trust me.
@@yudag I visited Turkey in June end for about 10 days. Countryside hospitality was heart warming, but City dwellers in Istanbul seemed to have an air of European-ness around them. Some sort of invisible entitlement of being "Europe". Also thanks to the presence of a lot of white skin Eastern Europeans. But at the same time, I could feel a complete lack of new developments. As in, what china is now and what India is starting to be now. I felt like Turkey is still living in a Hangover of being the 2nd world while quickly marching towards being part of the 3rd world club, as people were willing to bargain for even 10 Liras. It felt sad to see how much people's lives have been affected but I felt like Turkey needs a leader who invested heavily in education and higher education, instead of running the show of being Europe's good looking neighbour!
@@suyashneelambugg that's democrasies
Could you make a video explaining how developing countries manage their interest rates compared to the dollar? - They always tend to have higher interest rates, so how do they avoid the risk of their companies borrowing excessively in dollars?
Why did Turkish stocks double since the last summer?
An enlightening video. However, there are a number of presentation errors. For example, it cannot differentiate between "foreign trade balance " and "current account balance"
What if it addopted a Buckaroo style currency? Warren Mosler spoke about it in your interview with him?
So is all this dollar credit going to decrease the long-term value of the dollar relative to the lira who's long-term value might increase because of investment. Additionally boosting Turkey's ability to be a competitive domestic and foreign source of credit driving investment and currency appreciation.
Thank you for good analysis. I think Erdogan is gaining time for Elections. In 2023, Turkiye start to have energy from nuclear santral, also start to use their own gas from black sea, and also they have too many contracts about selling their own produced military units to foreign countries. Also, I dont know why you did not mention, Turkiye's Net Public Debt/GDP is around %35 and this ratio is better than European countries. Also Turkiye has advantage about working with Russia. I think Turkiye economy will be better in 2023.
because he wanted to be a biased :D
A GDP that is better only if you don't account for the cost of living. It's practically impossible to save in lira because it keeps depreciating. Even if you exchange your lira for dollar, it causes the lira to depreciate further and limit your own savings. So it doesn't help your average citizen, only corporations. What you see in GDP increase is taken from citizens by tenfold. It's damn near impossible to own a home here.
Great video! Very brief explanation for the complicated situation. Some points are missing. I can add here:
There are also some financial moves have been applied to prevent dolarization.
1. ( for companies ) Turkish government decleared that companies who had dolar saving more certain amounth (I gues it is around 1 million dollars but not sure ) will be restricted to reaching financial credits for their bussiness.
2. (For individuals ) "Currency protected deposit" or "kur korumali mevduat" in Turkish, has been decleared. According to this financial tool, if Turkish people choose to sell their currency savings to buy Turkish lira, Turkish government guaranteed that they will have high interest ( around 13 percent). During this period, if their savings lost the value due to sudden currency rises, Turkish government guarantees to compansate the lost value from the state treasury where they collected taxes from their people.
And also don't forget that the banks have to buy treasure bonds at ridiculously low interest rates in local currency as statutory reserve requirement (SRR) for foreign currency deposits. This increases risks on banks.
Dankjewel voor de video. Ik snapte niet waarom Turkije zulke rare dingen deed met hun buitenlandse beleid.
Zou je vooraan wel de assen van grafieken eenheden kunnen geven? Dat maakt duidelijker hoe die gelezen moet worden
because we are idiot 🚬🥲🔫 I am from Türkiye
Turkey has changed it's economic course. De-basing of the Lira was intentional right from the begining. Pandemi (COVID) has created once in a life time opportunity for Turkey to become a major production base as china is. In the short term, Turkey's economic policies may hurt the Turkish population, but, in the long term, it will pay off by helping Turkey to achieve it's objective in becoming a major production base on the borders of the EU.
Trade deficit is to do with Russia Ukraine war.
I was looking for this comment. Lower interest rates will turn each penny into investment internally which actually already happens as our company stock values increased a lot since the beginning of the pandemic. Now everyone holds shares in this or that company. In a few years, economy will be more self reliant than before.
All others know 1 and 2, Erdogan knows 12.
Merkez bankası rezervleri negatif iken bu söylemin sadece hayaperest bir yaklaşım hükümet serbest piyasaya güven vermiyor ve tam tersine enflasyon için zincir marketleri suçluyor ekonomi bakanı olarak göreve getirilen kişinin eğitim aldığı alan ekonomi değil sadece hayalperest yaklaşıyorsun dostum
ne güzel şeyler söylüyosun ya
@@haddock_76 alnından öpüyorum seni
the situation in turkey is even far more complicated. They discovered oil and huge amount of gas within their borders. However it will take some years, until they can effectively extract and use them. So the theory is, that the actual government somehow tries to bridge the gap between now and the time of ROI.
Please make an analysis video of pakistan's current depreciating economy. Your style is so simple and understandable.
It was a great video, made in an unbiased and objective way, congratulations
Turkey is just paying the cost of freedom from the Western monetary imperialism .... Erdogan is a true leader and his politic will pay back in long term incha Allah
As of today, one dollar gets you 18.65 lira... as high as it has ever been. You also don't mention that the reason the lira stabilized was that the Turkish government was actively using it's dollar reserves to buy lira off the market which keeps its value from going down. Turkey is desperate for dollar reserves to prop up it's own currency. That is a very short term solution, that according to the markets currently...is no longer working.
BMA
Extinguish "Interest" systematically with banks working under Profit/Loss scheme!! (Providing loans to investors without interest & risk to either earn or lose from there project!!)
That's a way out to countinous fall in value of currency!!!
The video began with the reporter saying the middle classes are suffering.
That is then when policy changes in almost any country. The lower classes are fine to suffer but when small businesses and asset holders get the same treatment it is remarkable how that fact changes policy globally.
In other words - the peasants are irrelevant.
Paper money backed by metals is the tradition prior to 1970s paper negotiable instruments backing the paper money... However there may be a good alternative to try in the post pandemic world... Wood or timbre stockpiled . But everyone should have grown this and is ready for sale... Wood has become valuable and will be priced high and will be stable in price because as a living tree it captures CO2 and is good to have to keep the air fresh and cools our areas...promotes grass to grow and other foilage....
Can you make a video about the current hardships of the Egyptian economy?
Egyptian economy is in a good light tho, they can easely beat Morocco in wealth if Sisi wants to
@@ethandouro4334 depending on how you measure things, how well an economy is supposedly doing and how well off most of the people living in that economy are may be highly disconnected. Or, under other circumstances, things could be working out very well... entirely because the leadership is doing an exceptional job of dancing on a knife edge when it comes to managing all the various things that keep trying to go wrong (then it becomes a question of whether they'll manage to stabalise all the problems before they slip up or not).
Or one or the other of you might just be entirely wrong. That's also possible.
Yes Joeri.
Trust the plan.
Trust the plan.
So with the lira going down long term does that mean an foreign expat can move to turkey and live cheaper there in every day items?
Not per sé. It depends on how fast prices rise there compared to the decline of the Lira. If prices go up faster than the Lira declines, it can still be more expensive for foreigners.
Can you please do a video on Egypt?
Up until the very end it was a decent video but by the end it became a joke... Lebanon is a country of 6 million with almost no production and political power. Turkey is a country of 80 million, surrounded with neighbors who have weaker economies. How can you even compare those? I had seen someone else comparing turkey to venezuela before but lebanon was even more ridiculous than that.
Düşün işte neler konuşuluyor hakkımızda :) Bizim halkımız aptal gibi yaşamaya devam
What Erdogan did to Turkey economics is academically interesting. My professor could talk about it for hours.
Moin Moin (we would say in Germany),
A very successful video! A year ago, Turkey created an investment opportunity for all foreign exchange investors. People can invest Lira for approx. 10-15% interest p.a.. However, if the USD exchange rate increases in value, the state is liable for this... This is another reason why the USD/TRY rate is very stable.
Merhaba
You should first care your inflation in Germany, then comment about Turkiye
@@Traxarab
Well, the almost 10% ... we will survive.
Here’s a couple of diary entries from me, a Turkish woman who doesnt know much about economy stuff:
April 2021
The car I wanted was a little over 100k liras when I started saving money. But the more money I have in my bank acount, the further I am from buying it. Its value keeps rising every single day. This feel so surreal. My money is losing its value and somehow vaporising as I am holding it in my hand.
February 2023
Saving my money as american dollars was the smartest thing I’ve ever done. Still cant buy a car though, more than half of the money I need to pay for it is just taxes. Everything feels so unfair.
2024 February: i forget the car 💀
@@elifong7584 I’ve started selling n0des to foreign men on the internet during the end of 2023 and I actually bought my car! Everything’s great if no one finds my real identity 🥲
One piece of advice from a singer: You start many words with an ‘eh’, which is a common habit people develop when speaking publicly. You can improve your speech a lot by practicing not to do this too often. That is, don’t say ‘Eh-this is the Turkish eh-Lira’, as in the very beginning of the video.
This subtle change will greatly enhance people’s listening experience!
At the end of the 4th, I was like "damn, that was good., I wonder who won" I was about to close the browser and go back to work when it continued lol my god, so glad they overturned that Gordon call. Also very happy for Gordon for grabbing that rebound on the missed free throw lol he was still too high from the dunk to focus on free-throws lol
Good games on Chrismas Day as usual.
As a Turk. İ want to cry.
Not necessary what they here tolds are absolute wrong. Look here first to Netherlands Debt than this Holland Guys started Cry for here Country.
you actually should of have a look at turkey's export growth through the last years to know where those loans were spent, he bought time until he become energy independent and until turkey can export more to close the deficit gap it has