2024 Breeders' Cup Classic - MONSTER PODCAST - PTF and Randy Moss - Who will win the $7 million?!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.พ. 2025
- Welcome to the Monster Breeders' Cup Podcast Series, where we bring you in-depth betting analysis and insights into the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic! This is the marquee race of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, featuring some of the best horses from around the globe. In this episode, we focus on the field for the Classic-a highly anticipated race that will test the endurance, speed, and grit of each contender over 1 1/4 miles on the dirt. Let’s break down the field, listing each horse’s post position, trainer, and jockey to give you all the facts you need to make informed bets.
2024 Breeders' Cup Classic Field
City of Troy
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
This European sensation has taken the turf world by storm, with a stunning 6-for-7 record and a recent win in the Juddmonte International. Known for his tactical speed, City of Troy is Aidan O’Brien’s top hope and is making the rare switch from turf to dirt. His forward-running style could be a perfect fit for Del Mar’s speed-favoring surface.
Fierceness
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
After an impressive win in the G1 Travers Stakes, Fierceness continues to build momentum. He could become the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to capture the Classic. Fierceness is known for his versatility, with both early speed and a powerful closing kick, making him a top contender in this star-studded field.
Forever Young
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
The Japanese-based 3-year-old finished third in the Kentucky Derby and recently won the Japan Classic. He has shown his resilience across different surfaces and distances, and while closers often struggle on Del Mar's dirt track, his recent form makes him a serious threat.
Ushba Tesoro
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
This 7-year-old veteran from Japan made waves by winning the Dubai World Cup and continues to perform well on the global stage. However, as a deep closer, Ushba Tesoro will face challenges on Del Mar’s speed-friendly surface, but his class and stamina make him dangerous if the pace collapses up front.
Sierra Leone
Trainer: Chad Brown
A consistent performer, Sierra Leone has been a beaten favorite in three straight starts, including the Travers. His closing style will need the race to develop a fast pace for him to have his best chance at victory. He remains a potential upset candidate if everything breaks his way.
Next
Trainer: Doug Cowans
Next comes into the Classic after dominating marathon races, including a victory in the Greenwood Cup. Although he is unproven at the quicker pace of a 1 1/4-mile Classic, his form suggests that he has the stamina to contend if the leaders falter late.
Arthur’s Ride
Trainer: Bill Mott
This live longshot could surprise with his up-front style. Arthur’s Ride won a G1 earlier this year and has a running style that suits Del Mar’s dirt track, where speed can be an asset. Expect him to be forwardly placed and in the mix early.
Newgate
Trainer: Bob Baffert
A promising runner who has been on the comeback trail, Newgate finished a solid third in the California Crown Stakes. He has room to improve in just his second start off the layoff and will be looking to put it all together for a Classic win.
Highland Falls
Trainer: Brad Cox
Highland Falls posted a career-best performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, winning his first G1 at 1 1/4 miles. This well-bred Curlin colt is peaking at the right time and could be a major factor if he continues to improve.
Tapit Trice
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A late bloomer, Tapit Trice started his 4-year-old campaign in July and has shown steady improvement, including a G2 victory in the Woodward Stakes. Though facing a tall order in the Classic, his closing style could come into play if the pace is hot upfront.
With horses coming from top-tier races around the globe, including Europe, Japan, and the U.S., the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic is set to be a showdown of champions. City of Troy brings European turf dominance to the dirt, while Fierceness looks to continue his winning ways after the Travers. The Japanese contenders-Forever Young and Ushba Tesoro-add an exciting international flavor, with both having proven themselves in top-level races. Will the tactical speed of the U.S.-based runners or the closing kick of the global stars take home the prize?
Make sure to tune in for our full analysis and expert insights on this blockbuster race in our latest podcast episode. Who will rise to the occasion in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic? Join us to find out!
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I can't tell you how much I enjoyed this podcast. I'm sorry to say I thought Randy was just a TV guy.. I couldn't have been more wrong. Thank you sir. You are a true student and pro. Up this for we so loved called horse racing. Thank you.
Thank you my friend. Randy is as shrewd of a form analyst as there is. We will hopefully have him back with Jerry for a best bets show on Weds.
Am a little surprised that Randy doesn't rate Next higher (not that I was expecting him to pick him in his Top 3 or anything). He's a speed figure guy, horse earns a 109 Beyer in the 11F Brooklyn, no mention. He very correctly lists the reason to doubt the horse, it's going to be a quicker pace than anything he's run in the last couple years, but also noted earlier how there won't be a cracking pace on, either.
To say if he owned the horse that he wouldn't even run in the race, just seems harsh. Could run a solid 5th and pick up a paycheck bigger than any marathon victory he's ever had. He's a really cool horse and we all win seeing him in this.
I think it's just a really tough situation for Next. When many, including myself, lobbied for him to participate we weren't expecting a group this good!
He absolutely belongs. There are no world beaters in the field. Would be a disservice to the horse and to the game not to run him here. Do we really need to watch him dominate another 250k 13 furlong race? Terrible take, Randy.
How long ago, races back, was that speed figure? Was his last three beyers 102, 101, 99 ?
@@Johnny53kgb-nsa I guess they refigured it to a 99. Saw it from three* separate sources. An Andy Serling tweet, a David Aragona tweet, and a Taylor Made Stallions article. I doubt youtube would like me linking to both, but they are not hard to find.
My bad.
Edit: Added Aragona's tweet as he's on DRF's payroll, and fixed Taylor Made Stallions name, called them Taylormade Farms before.
Peter has referenced data on how Justify’s stride hit 27.4 feet in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, …City of Troy hit 27.1 feet in the Juddmonte International . See Attheraces article for that data. City of Troy has the stride for dirt (not sure about your comments on stride length is right, Randy) , he has speed, he can front run and he stays.Totally agree with Ryan Moore’s tendency to hare off on dirt. However , CoT has a very good chance - should be at least 4/1 ish to compensate for dirt factor. Dirt is indeed graveyard for turf horses. Hope he wins.
There is lots of data suggesting he's an exceptional talent. Can he employ those bigger strides early on and still finish? That's the key question!
Yep. And he doesn’t move like Galileo. He moves like Justify.
This was a very enjoyable talk, nice one Pete
Thank you! Randy is the best.
Great show guys, randy really speaks so well and is a wealth of knowledge, really looking forward to Friday/Saturday ☘️☘️🐎
Should be a great two days!
@@ptfornatale absolutely Pete! Keep up the great work mate 👍🐎
Sierra Leone !!!
Highest beyer speed figures:
Arthur's Ride 110,111 , Fierceness 111, Sierra Leone 109, Skippylongstocking 106, Highland Falls 104
@DRF based on their last three races.
If you want to add in another, wherever, underneath, or whatever. I would add in, maybe, add in Forever Young, somewhere. Not a bad tri box.
I definitely understand that approach.
Excellent discussion on City of Troy, best I have seen yet very in depth. Ravens Pass won the classic and Henry the Navigator ran extremely well to finish second behind Ravens Pass both turf horses. Not sure of their breeding I think Ravens was dirt and turf and Henry was turf and turf.
Weren’t both on poly tho?
Yes
On synthetic
Randy I am Canadian from TORONTO, I KNOW HOW MUCH YOU KNOW ABOUT HORSE RACING, AND I RESPECT YOUR KNOWLEDGE VERY MUCH, MY QUESTION IS GALILEO WAS A GRANDSON OF NORTHERN DANCER, NORTHERN DANCER WON MOST OF HIS RACES ON DORTH
the stats are the stats -- 5% is NOT good.
You are so right! Galileo wins it for Europe if they race on grass at the Currah. Or Longchamp! Or Royal Ascott.
Thank you for the reality check for Mr. Moss!
The only son of Sadler’s Wells who became anything of a dirt sire was El Prado.
He moved smoothly on his gallop today, I think COT is a monster.
But it is racing, anything can happen
Happy with my 25/1 on city of Troy I put on in march 😊
Yes, that is most definitely a good price! If you are in a place with exchange wagering, I would recommending taking some profit on that by laying him at these prices.
He has to be at FIERCENESS & FOREVER YOUNG !!!!!!!!!!
NOT GONNA HAPPEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Interesting stat on COTs dams line And him looking more like the dams side . He has a strange grabbing stride not indicitive of a turf horse ? Take note
All this talk about Coolmore not having won this classic, yet they have 18 wins across the Breeders' Cup overall. Wings of Eagles is the only U.S.-bred horse to have won a British Classic in history. Not an easy feat on either side of the pond. City of Troy has Northern Dancer in its bloodline, aside from Justify and Galileo. It has by far the most superior pedigree in the field. If it runs to its potential, the rest won't have enough to beat it.
Randy has 3YO's running one, two. Pretty bold.
Feels right to me. He's a figure guy and they're the figure horses :)
20/20 hindsight and then we’ll heard from hoof beats finish line.🎶
Thanks for commenting
FREUDIAN SLIP
I would imagine City Of Troy had been exposed to kick back before his connections decided to ship across the pond. Needless to say, Del Mar can be a difficult track to run over. Baffert said that Arrogate did not like the Delmar track and he ran like it.
It's true -- definitely a variable that deserves consideration.
Absolutely! Ship a great horse to Del Mar! Fly the horse 10,000 miles. Change the surface. Shorten the stretch! And run in Bob Baffer’ts back yard; and call it fair! Absolutely disgusting!
CoT in his loss had a rein stuck in his bit and was chewing on it the entire race
Question....if Forever Young got a decent trip in the derby, would he won?
I think it's very likely he would have yes.
If Forever Young had NOT been MUGGED by Sierra Leon and Tyler Gaffalione, would he have won the KY Derby? ABSOLUTELY YES!
@ptfornatale pretty sure if he comes out the gate good, he will chase down Aurthers Ride for the exacta. STRAIGHT
Agree
He ran the best race, no doubts! He was mauled in the stretch! He will win the Cup!
This group is deep but inconsistent.Almost any horse can win this race at their best, problem is their best is unpredictable... For instance Fierceness was the fave in the KY Derby, he didn't show it until months later @ Saratoga. Dornoch ran well this summer but may have peaked? City of Troy's backers would have u believe he's a killer, yet he hasn't run on dirt. I will box 3 longshots w/ 2 favorites in exacta and tri and hope for a nibble.
I think that's a good point -- for such well regarded horses, Fierceness and City of Troy have underperformed at times.
We need more professionals bashing and doubting City of Troy in the Classic.
PLEASE
The "professionals" don't get caught up in the hype of the latest and greatest Euro-horse who is going to come to the USA and beat the hell out of the Yankee horses. It's happened a whopping THREE times in 40 BC Classic races.
It’s happened one time on dirt and the horse was 133-1.
@@depalma13 we know
@@depalma13 Arcangues was a French horse. The ONLY British-trained horse to ever win the BC Classic was Raven's Pass in 2008.
@@Steven-r2w9b it wasn’t on dirt
2:23 GOODDAY ALL, THE BOOKIES HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS TO ALL THE RACING QUESTIONS, WHILE THE ODDS ARE WHERE THEY, TIME WILL TELL.
Fierceness from just off the pace
That's where I am leaning, would love an outside draw.
Randy Moss has a very sound and realistic view for us of what is; however, to me, Galileo should not have been brought to Big Sandy in 2001. It was disrespectful to this Great Champion. Ship Tiznow to Ireland, England or France and Galileo would win, the size of the field, the way the race was run in New York, not fair to the horse.
Excuse? You damn right, and a damn good one too! Let’s race in Europe, on grass, up hill, and down.🤩
Galileo actually ran a huge figure that day on a surface he didn't enjoy -- just did it on his class.
He finished sixth 7.5 lengths back. I wouldn’t say a 104 his a huge figure.
I know and I agree!
Randy!! You can't say it but that's the reason to take him! Arthur's Ride bounced in the JCGC and it was predictable, now what happens after a fit horse completes that pattern…look out. Dangerous...
Can't see it personally but it's also not crazy.
He ran 1 race In the slop
Arthur's ride goes wire to wire!
@kevinwhitehouse869. If he gets an ez enough lead, look out. He'll be a price too.
Based on What?
That would be wild!
Fierceness ain't letting that happen
It is very possible.
Arthur was a flash in the pan?
He had ideal conditions to run that race for sure, but might have another big effort in him.
For me forever young wins archers ride for place money
They are both fast enough -- tho I think with so much other speed Arthur may get cooked. We shall see.
Below are the 3YO that have won the BCC and their KD status.
Authentic - 1st KD
Arrogate - Didn't contest KD
American Pharaoh - 1st KD
Bayern - Didn't contest KD
Ravens Pass - Didn't contest KD (Synthetic)
Curlin -3rd KD
Tiznow - Didn't contest KD
Cat Thief - 3rd KD
Concern - Didn't contest KD
A P Indy - Didn't contest KD
Unbridled - 1st KD
Sunday Silence - 1st KD
Proud Truth - 5th KD
Below are the 3YOs likely to contest the BCC:
Forever Young -3rd KD
Sierra Leone -2nd KD
Fierceness - 15th KD
Fierceness is the favorite amongst the American based runners. This is despite no KD also ran outside the top 5 has ever won the BCC. Further, No BCJ winner has ever emerged the winner of the BCC.
Are the above sufficient cold facts to toss Fierceness from favoritism amongst the American based runners?
Randy Moss of NBC just stated Highland Falls isn't fast enough to win the BCC.
Travers - 23.53; 48.10; 1:11.62; 136.05; 2:01.79 Equibase -110 -Fierceness
JCGC -- 23.25; 47.67; 1:11.31; 136.19; 2:03.25 Equibase - 113 - Highland F
Ken D - 22.97; 46.63; 1:11.31; 137.46; 2:03.34 Equibase - 110 - Sierra Leone
Ken D - 22.97; 46.63; 1:11.31; 137.46; 2:03.34 Equibase - 110 - Forever Y
Is Highland Falls that much slower that the 3YOs? He will be ahead of Sierra Leone and Forever Young on the long stretch run to the first turn and not far behind Arthurs Ride, Fierceness and COT. He has as better closing kick than Sierra Leone and Forever Young and better stride mechanics in the stretch.
If Highland Falls reports even 10% better than his JCGC shape he will be a serious win contender.
Very well stated, Mark. You make a great point. 👏
Nice analysis. Nice remembrance of Proud Truth, one of my favorites all time. I recall. He won the 9f Discovery at Aqueduct at 4/5 one Saturday, then came back the following week to score on the BCC. I won $80 on my $100 win bet then and parlayed the $180 unto a nice score, 8/1, i believe. Perhaps that may happen again. Yeah, on the moon. Good luck my friend, cheers!
Thanks for commenting!
Baffert had Arrogate on steroids! He did not need them to win Arrogate proved that! But Baffert, the creepy disgusting fool killed Arrogate with those drugs. That’s why he died young. It is criminal!
He killed Arrogate for fist full of dollars! Baffert is a viscous rabid glory seeker! He should be banned. Or change his name to Pete Rose!
What would Jerry Bailey say o Newgate!!!
Fierceness will be favored 5/2.
Siera seems slower than the top 2.
Dr Nasir Fazal Cambridge
I think the international money will make City of Troy the fave. Sierra and Fierceness very close on figs.
But, in the Ky. Derby, Forever Young, 2'nd, and Sierra Leone 3'rd.
Why don't you think they could either repeat, or win, the BC Classic @ 1 1/4?
Fierceness will bounce, pass on Troy. Forever Young over Leone n Derma. Ex. ✌️🙏
City of Troy is out of Justify. Might be able to handle the dirt.
By justify. Horses are by sires, out of mares. We discuss the ped extensively.
City of Troy wont get any of my money
Can't blame you, but it's not like he can't win on his best race. Fascinating puzzle.
Bookies are obviously crapping themselves, even if you are sceptical 😂
Worst price in Classic history
Wow alot of comments...yall must pick some winners... biggest comment section byfar
From top to bottom, one of the WEAKEST Breeders Cups in 40 years,and I've seen them all. Average horses,very little star power ..
Yeah, sure lol
@@Peradabo "You can judge a man's IQ by what he finds humorous"- M Twain
@@marklewen9384 Kids, just say no to drugs.
@@marklewen9384 "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." - Mark Twain.
@@Peradabo yet, you are doing just that??
Dearest all
Thanks for commenting!
Randy u going off yr past pick cause last couple of races.uve been around. U going to regret that. See what the horse did last time he ran on fast dirt. U ll get it randy.
Thanks for commenting
@ptfornatale no problem sir. Gd luck sat.
10:09 GENTLEMEN PLEASE DO YOUR JOB, THIS ANIMAL ,HORSE"BEAST" HAS DONE THINGS AS A 2 YEAR OLD, WHICH I CAN FIND RECORD OFF.
Good to hear from you, Garth
Big money from England will make c of joy favorite
Different Betting Pool
I agree
"City of Troy" will have a tough time, as per Moss statistically up against it.
He may be talented enough to run through the stat but at current prices it's not an appealing proposition.
@ptfornatale Bookies certainly not taking any chances with City of Troy, despite the enormity of the task.
It is an absolute TRAGEDY that Next is being entered in the BC Classic. This is NOT the kind of race that Next should be in. PERIOD. He will finish at or near the back of the pack, which is a shame. I will be cheering for Next to win the BC Classic, strictly as my "sentimental favorite", but I won't be betting a dime on him to do so.
tragedy a bit strong.
Get a grip. The horse belongs on figs and on past performances. He might run poorly but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try.
More than disgusting! This great champion has nothing to prove! Keep him in his barn away from the cruel morons who call themselves experts!
Objectively it's a wise decision regardless of race outcome. Dougie Cowans and his team have been at this successfully for decades. Look at his trainer stats on Equibase, he spots his horses very well.
@@jasonperlmutter4402 You obviously haven't bothered to look at Next's past performances on dirt, in races of 10 furlongs or less. You also haven't bothered to look at how SLOW his 12 furlongs times are, and the QUALITY of the competition during his winning streak.
We may be totally under estimating the pace
American Bettors Always Trying to Beat Seasoned American Dirt Horses in Classic With These Unproven Aidan & Japan Horses Even if They are a Short Price...WHY is This?....Because These Analysts Look For an Opportunity to Look "SMART" ...This is Why Randy Picks Forever Young
Is Your Keyboard Broken ?
Forever Young ran pretty well in Ky Derby.
@@ptfornatale Nah Just a Bad Habit...Your Final Classic Picks in Yet?
@@Johnny53kgb-nsaTRUE STORY 😮
The owners and trainers always talk about “what’s good for the horse”; and then what do they do? Oh, I know!
Let’s change every thing up: the distance, the surface, get’em in a big field, ya know like 15 to twenty. Then let’s call it a fair race. And of course ship 10,000 miles. It’s Bull Shit. It’s done for these disgusting gambling Fools.
Thanks for chiming in.
@@ptfornatale You got it!
$6 million dollar purse may have something to do with it.
@@johnpetrig6949 should not dignity and respect have something to do with it?
What the matter ptf my comment didn't go through.
I see it, Carl. Maybe just takes a minute?
@ptfornatale lisen my friend .on sat take a look at rousham park in turf. I like Obriens horses over applebys on sat grass races this year. But a long shot mentioned
Why same owner bringing two when other shahryar more established and proven in last year's race. Check replay two back in pouring rain. Don't tell no one. Lol lol lol and not j.k. lol lol gd luck.
Next should not be entered in this race. Keep him in races that he is unbeatable in. Don’t disrespect him by creating a challenge that tricks him, just for a few dollars more! It’s disgusting!
I think he'll be fine. Personally I'd have tried him in an easier spot first like the JCGC but it's a great sporting gesture and who knows, maybe they'll be rewarded.
They all suck
But they speak so well of you . . .
You mean the “so called experts?” I agree!