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Does this take into account the chiefs sitting their starters against the broncos, because that will skew the data significantly. I calculated an expected win % of 66.55% (10.64 out of 16 games the starters played). Still a big over performance in the regular season but not quite as bad as your calculations indicate and not far off from their 2022 season.
This was highly interesting. I did the math on my Eagles, and we over performed slightly during the season by .09 (1.6 wins). Thank you for the informative content.
The problem with your math, is that the Chiefs sandbag whenever they can instead of winning by a lot. They hold a lot of their cards until the playoffs.
idk about football but it has been shown in baseball that teams pythagorean record compared to actual record is nearly entirely random, no manager is just better at winning the close ones and losing the big ones
@@iceberg54321 well it is true, the year over year correlation of pythagorean record minus actual record is almost exactly 0, whether you win more or less than your runs says is almost entirely random
Baseball runs / allowed runs are a “better” predictor of wins / losses because baseball games are usually contested to the last out and every run is close to equal value. In football, scoring is variable (2 field goals do not yield the same prediction as 1 touchdown with a missed extra point), and games are often “given up” to protect star players when the score is lopsided. Finally, football teams change more in composition in terms of star players, which makes statistical prediction less reliable.
This is a really hot take. The Chiefs have a good of chance of winning as any of the 8 teams remaining. As long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, you always have a very high chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The chiefs making it to the AFC Championship game is huge. Only two other back-to-back Super Bowl teams ever made it to the Championship game the year after their 2nd Super Bowl win. If KC makes it to the Super Bowl, they will make history as the first team to make it back to the Super Bowl after winning that second win in their back to back wins.
You are making broad assumptions they lose all those "inches" games. None were absolute guarantees. The Ravens could have easily lost in overtime, or went for two and lost. You assumed the Chiefs receiver wouldn't have caught the ball in the Bengals game had he not been interfered with, not sure why. Just two examples.
They could have lost if they tried a 3 point conversion. If you use luck to explain away wins- you need to add luck into the final equation. Not to mention the Chiefs “could have” been 16-1 if they didn’t choose rest. Does your formulae include rest? Injuries? Coaches? How each team matches up player by player. You need to do more maths.
Lions fan here. I agree that the Chiefs have been SUPER lucky this year. Honestly, it’s obvious to everyone. However, the problem with using the Pythagorean formula with football is the extremely small sample size of a football season (17 games) as opposed to basketball (82 games) or baseball (162 games). Especially in baseball, the season is long enough that the actual wins and losses end up close to the expected wins and losses by season’s end. Often, a team’s luck (good or bad) runs out. Or, a team that was squeaking by with wins ends up actually playing better so that those wins are more decisive. Or a team that is barely losing a lot of games ends up having the bottom fall out. What the Pythagorean theorem is best for, honestly, is to look backwards on a season and see how much a team overachieved or underachieved. In baseball, it’s rare for a team’s expected win/loss record to deviate more than 5-10 games from expectation. But, as I said before, football has a small sample size. And stats with small sample sizes show weird results.
This also doesn't take account the way Chiefs have played these last 2 seasons, limiting possessions all around, grinding the clock, preferring to run the clock out with a 3 point lead than trying to get a TD and leaving time on the clock. Also, the Chiefs lost their CB2 (who's coming back for the divisional) and the defense was MUCH better with him. They also lost their best 2 receivers and rb1 early in the season. They also have won back to back super bowl and have championship degree.
@@noway7555Thing about Chiefs fans versus many other fan bases, is that the Chiefs fans don't cry. We don't whine that the game wasn't fair or ignore 59 minutes of the game to focus solely on one missed call. We don't harass our opponent fan base or call their QB names. I believe that kind of attitude is a part of the non quantitative variables this weird little video ignores.
@columbia2635 How nice for you. 🙄 Chiefs fans are rarely in a position to complain, being that everything goes magically right for you. However, your "Golden Boy" QB sure embarrassed himself AND HIS TEAM when that offensive offsides was called on Kadarius Toney against the Bills a couple years ago. See? For once, the officials did not succomb to Chiefs lure, and he was OUTRAGED. It was a sickening display. Sure, Chiefs FANS restrain themselves and don't always cry foul, but Mahomes? He exposed himself as a child who always expects his way and threw a TANTRUM when he didn't get it. Honestly, you have to wonder if he was promised preferential treatment by someone, did not get it, and was actually betrayed. 🤔
What this is not taking into account is that the chiefs right now are the healthiest they have been all season. They had to adapt to a lot of key injuries but except for Rashee Rice everyone is healthy. This changes the way this team plays tremendously.
Except casual football fans already have noted the Chiefs outperforming their apparent team strength in their win-loss record. Only their explanation for why goes in the opposite direction: The Kansas City Chiefs are guaranteed to win the 2024-2025 season Super Bowl. They didn't need your mathematics to know this. And at this time, 2025-01-20, the Chiefs only need to beat the Bills at home, a feat they have done before in the playoffs and even in Buffalo, and beat the winner of the Eagles - Commanders NFC Championship. That seems quite doable.
I agree the Chiefs are not as good as their record, but you got to account for them playing in a strong division (the only one in the AFC where 3 teams made the playoffs) and their perfect record at home (relevant since their next two games are at home - so why not apply Pythagoras to just their home games?). Also, as far as predicting their playoff success, they need to win 3 more games to 3-peat, and they are WAY better than Houston (who per Pythagoras shouldn't even had made the playoffs). In the AFC Championship game, they would play either the Bills or the Ravens. Personally, I would take them over the former (barely over .500 on the road in a weak division), but not over the latter, but again, they will be at home. I feel it's a coin-flip whether they make it to the Superbowl. If they get there, they may or may not be the underdog - I'd have them over the Commanders or the Rams, even-money against the Eagles, and losing to the Lions. But I would not be shocked if they won it all again.
As a Chiefs fan, it's so very cute to see so many people forget that they have a whole other Playoff Mode. They will actually start to open up the playbook now that it's playoff season. They are the most rested team out there this weekend. I'm not sure your fancy statistics can account for a team that treats the regular season like the pre-season. But I guess we'll see.
@@XenoChron2Perhaps you should concentrate on the teams you have to go thru BEFORE making it to Super Bowl. And thanks for the vote of confidence that the Chiefs will be in the SB!!! 😂😂😂
Chiefs have outperformed their point differential every year with mahomes (thats 7 seasons in a row). Every single year they made the top 4 (conference championship). The reason all their games are close is because Andy Reid likes to manage their leads so whenever the Chiefs are up 7+, they try to run the clock out instead of scoring more points (because when Andy was aggressive in 2013, they blew a 28 pt lead to the colts in the wild card and lost 45-44). The chiefs have gotten lucky for sure but they're still the favorites. The issue with Pythagorean expectation is that it assumes all points are equal and can be manipulated like that. But some points are garbage time points and others are clutch time points. The metric win probability added is unbiased since for every game the winner has added exactly 50% more Win Probability than the loser. This properly accounts for different points being worth different amounts. Imagine a team could score 50 points in the first quarter then played scrubs the final 3 quarters. The pythagorean formula puts too much weight on the garbage time skewing it incorrectly. Conclusion, the Chiefs went 15-2 but are more like a 13-4 team (similar to the Bills and Ravens), so yes they were slightly lucky but they're not completely fraudulent as Pthag says since it includes a 38-0 loss with the backups playing. Your video makes incorrect conclusions based on hatred of the Chiefs. The Chiefs only having a +59 point differential is a cool statistical oddity, but they are the exception that proves the rule. I'm a huge sports guy and a huge math guy.
Football is fake. It's bread and circus, nothing more. Imagine being so naive to think that millions of dollars are on the line, but the winners of each game are left to random chance...
@@inutamer3658 For the purpose of winning a game, you only need one more point that the opposing team when the game finishes. If your strategy is to get a modest lead and then defend it hard, and you are better at the game than the opposing teams, you would win plenty of games (because you're good at the game) but have a relatively low difference between points allowed and points conceded (because you stop attempting to earn more points when you have that small lead). In the data being gathered for the expectation you'd see games you lost by a huge difference, games you barely lost, and games you barely won, but would see very few games which you won by a great point difference (because you don't try to do this), and this violates some of the assumptions behind the expectation. Aiming to play conservatively maintaining a small lead will make you more vulnerable to bad luck in the final minutes of the game, but bad luck earlier in the game results in you switching back to aggressive play and potentially regaining the lead. I suspect that mathematically the result of different scoring strategies (particularly a flexible one which changes based on the state of the game) is a different optimal exponent in the pythagorean expectation, but I doubt there's enough data out there to generate the more accurate array of exponents for the modern strategies and teams - 2.37 is going to be a best fit averaged out across the coaching styles of all the NFL teams, while you'd get a different result for each if you looked at each coach in isolation (can't say if it would be a large difference, of course).
@@inutamer3658Because there's no difference venteee winning by 30 points or by 100 points, so once you're that far ahead they're not even trying anymore
@davidp.7620 from what I gather that's when they shift to preventing goals? That's accounted for in the equation. I mean I assume you aren't saying they put down their hats and just sit the rest of the game out right
A few things. 1. You gotta remove the week 18 Denver game. That’s a 38 point skew to the PA. 2. Football is a small sample size sport, so unlike baseball or basketball, being a couple games off target isn’t that abnormal. I wouldn’t be shocked if the average distance from center (absolute value) across the league is around 8%. The fact that Denver got shellacked by Miami 70-20 shows how easily stats are skewed by outliers. 3. The Chiefs are finally healthy. Chiefs fans know that we should have been a 13-4 team this year save for some late game heroics. But that was without Rice, Brown, Pacheco, Omenihue, and Watson. Instead, we now have Hunt, Hopkins, Brown, Pacheco, Omenihue, Humphries, and Watson. That’s a lot of points for and against that aren’t accounted for except for a few games of the season. Just gotta win 3 games.
But you forgot to factor in that the rules are set up in a way that the refs can choose what they want to call to favor certain teams. It's rigged, my friend!
If you leave out the last game in the calculation (which as you said they gave away), the expected win percentage is .666, a lot higher than the .597. And the difference (calculated based on 16 games) ist then about .27 - still high, but around 2% lower than what you calculated.
Your math doesn't cover all the factors. Pretty much Mahomes himself and way he beats the odds. They also don't like piling the score on to keep their edge sharp.
Comparing baseball, basketball and football seems a little strange considering that baseball and basketball have playoffs based on series vs football which has a single elimination format
This is such a bad misunderstanding of how the maths works. For one it's gamblers fallacy, i.e. because the chiefs got lucky in the regular season, they're "due" to have that luck cancel out over the next 3 games. This is wrong because the next 1, 2, or 3 games are independent events. It's also wrong because the chiefs rested all their starters in the final week of the season for a 0-38 blowout which was entirely unrepresentative of their normal level of play. This is polluting the pythagorean wins expectations, and is why they're ahead of the '22 Vikings by Pythag Win Rate Over Expected (PWROE). The next part is "football speculation" which I think one can nebulously argue for or against; I'm personally not sure if it's true or not, but will raise it since it's something many chiefs partisans would mention. "The Chiefs take the regular season easy, and turn it on in the playoffs." This has been talked about e.g. last year, where they had a relatively ho-hum regular season, but then beat 3 much better teams by standard measures of efficiency (SRS, EPA, DVOA) in Buffalo, Baltimore, and San Francisco. I am *NOT* a Chiefs fan, I'm a very loud, proud, obnoxious Patriots fan, but the "logic" and "arguments" here and not conclusive, and the narration is implying a false level of confidence that anyone with a modicum of statistical experience should be able to identify as flawed. Just because no team with a PWROE as high as the '24 Chiefs has won the Super Bowl before does not say that it is impossible for this current iteration of the Chiefs cannot. Further them *not* winning the Super Bowl would not be enough of a sample size to conclusively say that PWROE is meaningless. Very disappointed that something this misleading is out there, and think it would be much better couched with the language of statistical probability, you mentioned vegas earlier, and they currently have an implied odds for the Chiefs winning of 20% (2nd only to Detroit) per Ben Baldwin: x.com/benbbaldwin/status/1878834440824328499/photo/1 Further DVOA implied odds (one of the best statistical measures of NFL performance) which takes into account on a play-by-play level of the Chiefs 2024 performance, instead of solely a points for/against metric, (this is better because play:play efficiency is more stable than end games points for/allowed) gives the Chiefs a 14.3% chance of victory. I hope the Chiefs lose, but if they do win, I won't be gobsmacked, and I hope I've made a clear case why no-one else should be either.
Obviously it's not conclusive, the level of confidence is simply playing it up for fun. Playoff predictions aren't fun to make when the whole discussion is couched in "but I don't know"s and "but any given Sunday"s and "I could be wrong"s. Of course they're not due to have bad luck just because of good luck, but they will be facing stiff competition in the playoffs, where luck - good or bad - may not be sufficient to change the result. I don't know what's misleading about this, it's one guy giving one opinion very explicitly based on a single statistic. It's for fun, and to tell a story. Fellow loud proud obnoxious Patriots fan here.
A major difference between baseball, and football is that football is played on a clock. There is an incentive late in the game for a team that is ahead to attempt to run out the clock, even if it means scoring fewer points. This leads to games that look close in score, but were actually dominant wins because the winning team was forgoing points in order to hold on to possession at the end of the fourth quarter.
There’s a slight miscalculation in your equation, you use only the regular season however you don’t isolate playoff win/loss which will tweak your calculation
The Chiefs have a significantly better point differential than the Texans, their divisional opponent, who interestingly scored exactly as many points as they have allowed. If they win that they only need to get "lucky" two games in a row against presumably better competition which could happen.
Thank you! I love football but don't care about baseball - but the research I did for this video made me care a little, I thought it was all very interesting.
So did you take all the injuries into account? Cuz we getting alot of missing pieces back for the playoffs...dude don't watch football because 70% of games now are decided by one score meaning these games go either way more often than not and it takes coaching and players to overcome those obstacles...putting this video out before we've even played a playoff games puts the numbers in your favor...make ur money off the chief haters.
The perfect script would be the Chiefs losing in the Super Bowl and being stopped dead in their tracks on a way to a three-peat. I think the Lions Or Eagles will upset the Chiefs.
Statistics just don't work as predictive influences for football in the same way they do for baseball. Fun and interesting video though. Do the math for every team and every season to test your model.
Pythagoreon Expectations are drastically less accurate in the NFL, and the Chiefs are a textbook bad application. The Chiefs tend to get ahead early in games and then let off the gas, because unlike in baseball where teams can score an unlimited number of runs per inning, that's the optimal strategy. This deflates the Chiefs PF - PA twice, since KC scores fewer points than they need to win, and allow more garbage time points than an average team. The Chiefs simply have a slightly better than 12.5% chance to win the super bowl because they are competing against 7 other teams, but they're rested, they have home field advantage in the first two games, and they're marginally better than the average opponent they'll face.
There’s another reason the Chiefs likely won’t win Super Bowl LIX. They won 15 games in the regular season. The last 15(+) win team to win a Super Bowl was the 1985 Chicago Bears. Achieving a 15-win season is rare, yet in 2024 the NFL had two…and we’ve already seen the 15-2 Lions go down…
Nonsense. Football has always been a game of inches. A good example is the Chiefs 2020 Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay, a team they had previously beaten that year in that same stadium. So what had changed? Injuries. The Chiefs were playing without their two starting pro bowl tackles. And four of the five linemen were playing out of position. Every football injury is an inch or two from being a non-injury. In my experience watching NFL games, the best teams overcome injuries and win the most inches. This Chiefs team is as good as any have ever been at winning the most inches. They may not win the superbowl. But no one will be shocked if they do.
I agree the Chiefs were lucky this season, but they can still win the super bowl. Not predicting they actually will. I feel the Lions deserve to be the favorite and Vegas agrees with me. But I think you're putting too much emphasis on "exceeding the win expectation." The fact is that win expectation is a better measure of how good a team actually is than their actual win loss record is. So, while the Chiefs have overachieved they're still a team that's expected to win 59.7% of the time and that's good enough to win a Super Bowl sometimes. Three teams have won a Super Bowl with a worse win expectation. The 2011 Giants, for example, won the Super Bowl in spite of having given up more points than they scored in the regular season. And the fact that the Chiefs overachieved means only that they're more likely to do it as they've got themselves an easier path. For example, Saturday they play the Houston Texans who scored the same number of points as they gave up this year, giving them a .500 win expectation. So, they've got a weak first opponent and if they beat them they only have to win two more games. Also, while only 3 teams won the Super Bowl with a win expectation worse than than the 2024 Chiefs. Since they lost that last game where they rested their starters 38-0, you might as well not count that game. If you take that out it raises their win expectations to 66.6%. It's still not spectacular and less than the average super bowl winner (73.8% btw), but 11 super bowl winners (one of which was the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs) have had win expectations worse than 66.6%. They wouldn't even be in the bottom sixth with that number. Now, you've heard my smart guy analysis. My dumb guy analysis is "you should never say the team with the best quarterback in football has no chance."
Ya statistically you can say any of the remaining teams will not win the Super Bowl and be right 87% of the time… great insight, you should work for a casino.
@@gadglichtg4840 Well, if I was to do it, I'd first normalize the data... it doesn't matter what the exact PF and PA are, just the ratios. With that the two values add up to 1, so the ratio for PA is equal to 1-PF. So we've reduced our function to one variable. Similarly, you take the results and normalize them by reducing them to the win percentage. So we have a function from one value to another, and lots of data. So we want a regression on that data... like finding the exponent that minimizes the sum of the squares of the errors. Personally, I'd just do it numerically, write a program to crunch the numbers and find the best fit to within a reasonable factor (which given the very discrete nature of "win-loss" records doesn't have to be that focused).
If anyone thinks they're gonna pass up the opportunity to script a Chiefs a 3-peat, you're crazy 🤣 This is Kelce's final season and he and Taylor Swift are still 'together'. That narrative won't go to waste.
Haha this man knows what he’s doing because no matter what his video will get a lot of interaction from Chiefs fans and non-Chiefs fans alike 😂 Touché my guy 👌🏼
By this logic, 10-7 may not even make the playoffs, since they would have lost to the Chargers, who would have been 12-5 with that win.... This is why they play the game, folks.. :)
I wonder how the idea of "skipped points" factors into these formulas. For example, if two teams are playing baseball, and the team who plays second is in the lead as of the middle of the 9th inning, then they don't play that inning -- they have already won, and the points that they might have earned in that inning aren't counted in the total, even though the points they allowed (if any) in that inning are counted. Or sometimes, if a football team is in the lead in the last 30 seconds or minute (not sure exactly what the limit is) and they have control of the ball, they might just put the ball down and do nothing, having won the game. They don't need to try to score on the last play. Maybe if they had played, they could have increased their lead, but they didn't.
I love this math side of sports. I thought you were padding time with the moneyball breakdown but I realized how it would all come together, and as a chiefs fan I’m biased to say the “clutch” gene can’t be 100% accounted for in such a small sample size, but loved the video! Glad I trusted the process!!
As a math nerd and a big Chiefs fan, I sure hope we continue to defy the analytics predictions 😀 Also, we win these games by "inches", but we put ourselves in the position to do so. You can't get "lucky", if the other team is two scores ahead in the last minute...
Also the WR didn't back int the Defender, he jumped forward into him for that PI call. THUS PI. Not backing into the Defender. There is a difference when looking at stats objectively and trying to use stats to define why you believe something. Trying to prove WHY the Chiefs will lose, vs prove WHY they Chiefs will win, is still hard when stats don't take into account injuries and 2/3 the offense not being on the field until that last 2 weeks of the season. There's alot of nuance that effects things. I like the Statistical theory though. However, if stats were 100% accurate at predictions... Gambling wouldn't be gambling.
so so so so many things to say about this video. but i’ll keep it to a few. let’s start with the beginning of the video, moneyball. a science. a direct science. base runners get you runs, runs get you wins, wins get you world series titles. oh, wait. the athletics didn’t win any world series titles in that stretch. it’s almost as if sports… go much deeper than the numbers. secondly, “you wouldn’t count on a blocked field goal to win a game.” well actually, if you’re the chiefs, and you’re playing the broncos, that’s exactly what you’d do. now what do i mean by that? i mean the chiefs, having probably the greatest head coach of all time, and a spectacular special teams coordinator noticed something on film heading into this game. they notice that the broncos left guard frequently this season got completely ran over. so if the broncos are kicking a game winning field goal with time expiring, what do they do? overload that left guard with both a lot of players, AND the biggest linebacker on the team. who is that linebacker? Leo Chenal. and i bet you can guess who blocked the kick. Now lastly, arguably my favorite rebuttal of this entire video, is the single most important part of football. The quarterback. i picked both the Commanders and Bills to win this divisional weekend and why? well in a game where i believe things may be close, im picking the team that i believe has the advantage at quarterback. and sure enough, two teams had quarterbacks with flawless games, and two teams had quarterbacks with terrible games. you won’t guess who won. the better quarterbacks. the bills and the commanders. so where does that leave us? ah yes. patrick mahomes. there is no equation. there are no numbers. there is no mathematical reasoning to explain the things that patrick mahomes does. when there should be absolutely no chance a play is made, he makes it. and if you don’t believe me or you disagree, you simply haven’t been watching. number cannot take into account, the intangibility that is patrick mahomes. “when it’s grim, be the grim reaper.”
Not incorporating playoff numbers into this calculation feels very misleading. They went 14-3 in the regular season in 2022 yes, but then they won 3 more games on top of that. Also, those above expectations teams were almost all performing above expectations from a lower floor than the Chiefs operate at. I'm not a Chiefs fan, I'm a Packers fan trying to remind folks we've already threepeated twice. But I just wanted to point those discrepancies out, they definitely skew the numbers more in the Chiefs favor.
It would be cool if you did this same statistic for all the teams. We could do it our self but the video of which teams are the luckiest would be a good vid
You forgot 4 main things 1. The Chiefs are healthy the first time in the season going back to the playoffs 2. Andy Reid Holds off on the play book tell the playoffs so thr Chiefs went 15-1 without even using their best plays and this gives them an advantage as Film won't work well on them in the playoffs giving teams a surprise 3. Especially after last year you can see the Chiefs are just unbelievable clutch in the playoffs Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs 4. Chiefs have the most consecutive wins in NFL history in 1 score game since probably definitely shows they have a much better chance than what conventional odds will out them at
The difference between the 2020 and 2024 chiefs is that the 2020 chiefs sustained major injuries leading into the Superbowl whereas the 2024 chiefs sustained injuries early in the season and midway through. The chiefs for their first playoff game will have all but possibly 1 player (outside of IR) available for this game. They had also picked up other players as a result to make up for those injured players who really outperformed what was expected. They have all that with their starters now and the main missing option is just Rice. Plus Andy Reid being a magic man and Mahomes playoff magic, the only loss I can see is if Butker can't hit field goals
There are SO MANY variables that are not taken into account here. Strength of schedule, personnel changes, momentum, coaching strategy, much smaller sample size of season games, etc. This is essentially a more complex version of the "Chiefs are the worst 15 win team in NFL history because of point differential" argument. This fails to take into account that when given the opportunity to run up the score, Andy Reid always focuses on clock management instead. There were plenty of one score games this year that could've been blowouts, but Andy doesn't care about that. For the past few years, the Chiefs have only scored as many points as they needed to. They just don't care that much about the regular season. Mahomes is also the best playoff QB on a per game average by almost every metric at this point in his career. In the Super Bowl loss against the Bucs, the Chiefs didn't lose because their luck ran out. They lost because of a significantly deteriorated offensive line. Mahomes scrambled for over 500 yards behind the LOS in that game which is actually insane. The inches argument is funny to me because players are taught that football is a game of inches. Every close game comes down to a handful of plays and in inch here or there, and you can make "what ifs" all day long for any team in any game. The fact is, the Chiefs just need to be the better team for three more games, and they are more motivated than ever to make history. There are no guarantees in the NFL, but I wouldn't bet against the Chiefs.
Anything can happen on Sunday. There is a reason that the players and coaches make millions of dollars instead of mathematicians. The 2011 Giants scored 394 points and allowed 400 points in the regular season. They won the Super Bowl.
Not a huge fan of Sabermetrics but big fan of trolling Chiefs fans on a tabletop football field, nice video. Of note: if you had predicted the winners of WC games using W/L, you would have went 2-2. Using Pythagorean win totals, you'd go 1-3. Using Massey, you also would have gone 1-3.
One stat that proves they will => Travis Kelce is still dating Taylor Swift and her presence boosts ratings. The most talented teams haven't been winning superbowls lately it's whoever the league wants to win them
People always forget that playoff Mahomes era chiefs are always better than regular season chiefs and they even went 15-2 this year with one game being without the starters and using mostly 3rd string and practice squad. Not saying there's no way the broncos could beat them but if it was a game that actually mattered it would've at very least been an extremely close game. Stop doubting my boys.
In the 100 year history of the nfl a qb had never won a championship in their first year on a team and a team had never won a superbowl In their own stadium both of these things finally happened in 2020 for the Bucs and then it just so happened to happen again in 2021 with the rams first year qb and own stadium
I love football and I love math, and I am always happy to see math videos about football. Also, the Chiefs won't win the Superbowl because the Eagles will. Go Birds!!! 🦅🦅🦅
Just from a gut feeling about the Chiefs, I think their luck is running out. Reminds me of Auburn in their BCS game in 2014. But then again even the worse teams bring their A-game when playing the champions. It would be interesting to see if the Patriots outdid their winning expectations and still won the Super Bowl.
chiefs also added 38 unnecessary point against benching starters in final game. if they played starters i would guess more like 66%+ expected win (little over 11 games) and roughly 22% above expected if they still lost.
2024: the team lost their WR1&2 & RB 1 so their offense has been crippled for most of the year. If you look at their trajectory over their last 6 games, they are finally back to full strength on offense. Their players are all healthy and ready to go. They also have the most playoff experience and past success than any other team left. Math that. Not saying it’s a lock but they have a decent chance to do well.
phew, just had to get that out of my system
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Can you also use this stat to prove that Arsenal will not win the Premier League??
Does this take into account the chiefs sitting their starters against the broncos, because that will skew the data significantly.
I calculated an expected win % of 66.55% (10.64 out of 16 games the starters played). Still a big over performance in the regular season but not quite as bad as your calculations indicate and not far off from their 2022 season.
This was highly interesting. I did the math on my Eagles, and we over performed slightly during the season by .09 (1.6 wins). Thank you for the informative content.
Your ideas are idiotic dude just stop
Uhoh, looks like the Chiefs are "overperforming" again. Where did you learn statistics exactly?
"if you go up 28-3, well its a lock youre not gonna beat that team" *falcons fans are angry*
Houston 24 Chiefs 0 - 2 Quarter, Divisional Round - 2020. Chiefs went on to win their first Super Bowl.
Yes we are.
Also, dumb for taking that bait but I mean, football fans amirite
You could even look at the w% as the season progresses, game by game!
24 to 0 and winning at halftime. That will never happen again 😅
Mathematically they shouldnt have had a shot LAST SEASON 😂
The problem with your math, is that the Chiefs sandbag whenever they can instead of winning by a lot. They hold a lot of their cards until the playoffs.
Yep, plus Andy like winning close games because it's playoff training...he obviously don't watch the games or know anything about chiefs football
idk about football but it has been shown in baseball that teams pythagorean record compared to actual record is nearly entirely random, no manager is just better at winning the close ones and losing the big ones
I don't think that is true, managers use better relievers in high leverage situations.
@@iceberg54321 well it is true, the year over year correlation of pythagorean record minus actual record is almost exactly 0, whether you win more or less than your runs says is almost entirely random
agree as long as the team continues to be healthy
I'm ready for this to age badly
If only math could be used to cover Travis Kelce
Haha! Exactly! 😀
that 28-3 joke hurt
im not even from atlanta but it still hurt
Isaac Punts shout out is not something I expected in this video
For real
Baseball runs / allowed runs are a “better” predictor of wins / losses because baseball games are usually contested to the last out and every run is close to equal value. In football, scoring is variable (2 field goals do not yield the same prediction as 1 touchdown with a missed extra point), and games are often “given up” to protect star players when the score is lopsided. Finally, football teams change more in composition in terms of star players, which makes statistical prediction less reliable.
All this video shows me is that this guy has a very limited understanding of football.
this will be the first video I will come visit when chiefs 3peat.
me too🧡🏈❤️
This is a really hot take. The Chiefs have a good of chance of winning as any of the 8 teams remaining. As long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, you always have a very high chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Its not a take, it's a shot in the dark...chiefs played whole season at 60% health...we're now at 85% going into the playoffs....let's fuckin go!
Honestly, they have a better chance than any other team. ESPN, though, says the Lions have the best chance. I don't know where they got that.
The chiefs making it to the AFC Championship game is huge. Only two other back-to-back Super Bowl teams ever made it to the Championship game the year after their 2nd Super Bowl win.
If KC makes it to the Super Bowl, they will make history as the first team to make it back to the Super Bowl after winning that second win in their back to back wins.
@@XenoChron2 now the lions are out and chiefs have by far the best chance, 3-peat is imminent
@@XenoChron2they got that based on points per game average.
You are making broad assumptions they lose all those "inches" games. None were absolute guarantees. The Ravens could have easily lost in overtime, or went for two and lost. You assumed the Chiefs receiver wouldn't have caught the ball in the Bengals game had he not been interfered with, not sure why. Just two examples.
They could have lost if they tried a 3 point conversion. If you use luck to explain away wins- you need to add luck into the final equation. Not to mention the Chiefs “could have” been 16-1 if they didn’t choose rest. Does your formulae include rest? Injuries? Coaches? How each team matches up player by player. You need to do more maths.
@@jvc8947 bro what there is not such thing as a 3 point conversion dummy
Lions fan here. I agree that the Chiefs have been SUPER lucky this year. Honestly, it’s obvious to everyone. However, the problem with using the Pythagorean formula with football is the extremely small sample size of a football season (17 games) as opposed to basketball (82 games) or baseball (162 games). Especially in baseball, the season is long enough that the actual wins and losses end up close to the expected wins and losses by season’s end. Often, a team’s luck (good or bad) runs out. Or, a team that was squeaking by with wins ends up actually playing better so that those wins are more decisive. Or a team that is barely losing a lot of games ends up having the bottom fall out. What the Pythagorean theorem is best for, honestly, is to look backwards on a season and see how much a team overachieved or underachieved. In baseball, it’s rare for a team’s expected win/loss record to deviate more than 5-10 games from expectation. But, as I said before, football has a small sample size. And stats with small sample sizes show weird results.
This also doesn't take account the way Chiefs have played these last 2 seasons, limiting possessions all around, grinding the clock, preferring to run the clock out with a 3 point lead than trying to get a TD and leaving time on the clock.
Also, the Chiefs lost their CB2 (who's coming back for the divisional) and the defense was MUCH better with him. They also lost their best 2 receivers and rb1 early in the season.
They also have won back to back super bowl and have championship degree.
You will be crying harder in a few weeks...
@@noway7555Thing about Chiefs fans versus many other fan bases, is that the Chiefs fans don't cry. We don't whine that the game wasn't fair or ignore 59 minutes of the game to focus solely on one missed call. We don't harass our opponent fan base or call their QB names. I believe that kind of attitude is a part of the non quantitative variables this weird little video ignores.
@columbia2635
How nice for you. 🙄
Chiefs fans are rarely in a position to complain, being that everything goes magically right for you. However, your "Golden Boy" QB sure embarrassed himself AND HIS TEAM when that offensive offsides was called on Kadarius Toney against the Bills a couple years ago. See? For once, the officials did not succomb to Chiefs lure, and he was OUTRAGED. It was a sickening display. Sure, Chiefs FANS restrain themselves and don't always cry foul, but Mahomes? He exposed himself as a child who always expects his way and threw a TANTRUM when he didn't get it. Honestly, you have to wonder if he was promised preferential treatment by someone, did not get it, and was actually betrayed. 🤔
@ms.7331 be honest, how much have you lost on betting against the chiefs?
What this is not taking into account is that the chiefs right now are the healthiest they have been all season. They had to adapt to a lot of key injuries but except for Rashee Rice everyone is healthy. This changes the way this team plays tremendously.
“Instead of practice, we holds rituals to summon whatever evil spirits we need to win the game”
I probably would enjoy sports more if there was this much math during the games.
Why would there be more math in sports that just sounds like you want to watch a math class and all power to you though
So you are a baseball fan.
Except casual football fans already have noted the Chiefs outperforming their apparent team strength in their win-loss record. Only their explanation for why goes in the opposite direction: The Kansas City Chiefs are guaranteed to win the 2024-2025 season Super Bowl. They didn't need your mathematics to know this. And at this time, 2025-01-20, the Chiefs only need to beat the Bills at home, a feat they have done before in the playoffs and even in Buffalo, and beat the winner of the Eagles - Commanders NFC Championship. That seems quite doable.
I agree the Chiefs are not as good as their record, but you got to account for them playing in a strong division (the only one in the AFC where 3 teams made the playoffs) and their perfect record at home (relevant since their next two games are at home - so why not apply Pythagoras to just their home games?). Also, as far as predicting their playoff success, they need to win 3 more games to 3-peat, and they are WAY better than Houston (who per Pythagoras shouldn't even had made the playoffs). In the AFC Championship game, they would play either the Bills or the Ravens. Personally, I would take them over the former (barely over .500 on the road in a weak division), but not over the latter, but again, they will be at home. I feel it's a coin-flip whether they make it to the Superbowl. If they get there, they may or may not be the underdog - I'd have them over the Commanders or the Rams, even-money against the Eagles, and losing to the Lions. But I would not be shocked if they won it all again.
I wouldn't be shocked either. I'm just having a blast seeing football discourse on my math channel 😂
@@WrathofMath😂
@@WrathofMath nice reply!
Mahomes Magic has no logic. We win 🏆 Really sad the Lions 🦁 got popped by the Redskins. Chiefs vs Redskins Superbowl 49 lets go
As a Chiefs fan, it's so very cute to see so many people forget that they have a whole other Playoff Mode. They will actually start to open up the playbook now that it's playoff season. They are the most rested team out there this weekend. I'm not sure your fancy statistics can account for a team that treats the regular season like the pre-season. But I guess we'll see.
I would love to see the Lions crush you.
@@XenoChron2I would love to see the Chiefs crush whoever is unfortunate enough to play them
@@XenoChron2Perhaps you should concentrate on the teams you have to go thru BEFORE making it to Super Bowl. And thanks for the vote of confidence that the Chiefs will be in the SB!!! 😂😂😂
You might be a good team, but the Bills and Ravens look better
bandwagon 👎
Chiefs have outperformed their point differential every year with mahomes (thats 7 seasons in a row).
Every single year they made the top 4 (conference championship).
The reason all their games are close is because Andy Reid likes to manage their leads so whenever the Chiefs are up 7+, they try to run the clock out instead of scoring more points (because when Andy was aggressive in 2013, they blew a 28 pt lead to the colts in the wild card and lost 45-44).
The chiefs have gotten lucky for sure but they're still the favorites.
The issue with Pythagorean expectation is that it assumes all points are equal and can be manipulated like that.
But some points are garbage time points and others are clutch time points.
The metric win probability added is unbiased since for every game the winner has added exactly 50% more Win Probability than the loser. This properly accounts for different points being worth different amounts.
Imagine a team could score 50 points in the first quarter then played scrubs the final 3 quarters. The pythagorean formula puts too much weight on the garbage time skewing it incorrectly.
Conclusion, the Chiefs went 15-2 but are more like a 13-4 team (similar to the Bills and Ravens), so yes they were slightly lucky but they're not completely fraudulent as Pthag says since it includes a 38-0 loss with the backups playing.
Your video makes incorrect conclusions based on hatred of the Chiefs. The Chiefs only having a +59 point differential is a cool statistical oddity, but they are the exception that proves the rule.
I'm a huge sports guy and a huge math guy.
I don't know much about sports. Why are all points not to be treated equally?
Football is fake. It's bread and circus, nothing more. Imagine being so naive to think that millions of dollars are on the line, but the winners of each game are left to random chance...
@@inutamer3658 For the purpose of winning a game, you only need one more point that the opposing team when the game finishes. If your strategy is to get a modest lead and then defend it hard, and you are better at the game than the opposing teams, you would win plenty of games (because you're good at the game) but have a relatively low difference between points allowed and points conceded (because you stop attempting to earn more points when you have that small lead). In the data being gathered for the expectation you'd see games you lost by a huge difference, games you barely lost, and games you barely won, but would see very few games which you won by a great point difference (because you don't try to do this), and this violates some of the assumptions behind the expectation.
Aiming to play conservatively maintaining a small lead will make you more vulnerable to bad luck in the final minutes of the game, but bad luck earlier in the game results in you switching back to aggressive play and potentially regaining the lead.
I suspect that mathematically the result of different scoring strategies (particularly a flexible one which changes based on the state of the game) is a different optimal exponent in the pythagorean expectation, but I doubt there's enough data out there to generate the more accurate array of exponents for the modern strategies and teams - 2.37 is going to be a best fit averaged out across the coaching styles of all the NFL teams, while you'd get a different result for each if you looked at each coach in isolation (can't say if it would be a large difference, of course).
@@inutamer3658Because there's no difference venteee winning by 30 points or by 100 points, so once you're that far ahead they're not even trying anymore
@davidp.7620 from what I gather that's when they shift to preventing goals? That's accounted for in the equation. I mean I assume you aren't saying they put down their hats and just sit the rest of the game out right
A few things.
1. You gotta remove the week 18 Denver game. That’s a 38 point skew to the PA.
2. Football is a small sample size sport, so unlike baseball or basketball, being a couple games off target isn’t that abnormal. I wouldn’t be shocked if the average distance from center (absolute value) across the league is around 8%. The fact that Denver got shellacked by Miami 70-20 shows how easily stats are skewed by outliers.
3. The Chiefs are finally healthy. Chiefs fans know that we should have been a 13-4 team this year save for some late game heroics. But that was without Rice, Brown, Pacheco, Omenihue, and Watson. Instead, we now have Hunt, Hopkins, Brown, Pacheco, Omenihue, Humphries, and Watson. That’s a lot of points for and against that aren’t accounted for except for a few games of the season.
Just gotta win 3 games.
Y’all won’t win even one.
And averages are impacted by outliers. Not enough games for the average to balance that.
@@tromboneman4517 ill talk to you after the game on saturday AHHA you are an absolute bozo
@@tromboneman4517 lol
@@tromboneman4517 aged awesomely
I don’t think he knows what pastime is
But you forgot to factor in that the rules are set up in a way that the refs can choose what they want to call to favor certain teams. It's rigged, my friend!
Fans that blame the refs are literally the worst fans to watch sports with. It is the low IQ way to deal with losing their parlay.
As Confucius say, under the tutelage of Taylor Swift, "haters gone hate"
Would he duly advise them thus to "shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake it off, a-shake it off"?
Have you ever heard of… refs?
yes :(
Or QAnon?
That 28-3 joke with the pats was hilarious. I’m a pats fan
Same, I went to their last two home games this season and last season, it has been a disaster. But big hopes for Vrabel!
If you remove the last game where the benched their starters, they align with previous years, where they won
if you remove the most recent game they're not AFC Champions
@@WrathofMathThis logic is so idiotic and tells me a lot about you. I don't even need to watch the video to know you're wrong.
If you leave out the last game in the calculation (which as you said they gave away), the expected win percentage is .666, a lot higher than the .597. And the difference (calculated based on 16 games) ist then about .27 - still high, but around 2% lower than what you calculated.
Your math doesn't cover all the factors. Pretty much Mahomes himself and way he beats the odds. They also don't like piling the score on to keep their edge sharp.
The most frustrating thing about the chiefs is that when they play bad, so does their opponent
They force their opponent to play bad.
And when they play good, their opponents usually play average.
People don’t give their defense enough credit.
Comparing baseball, basketball and football seems a little strange considering that baseball and basketball have playoffs based on series vs football which has a single elimination format
This is such a bad misunderstanding of how the maths works.
For one it's gamblers fallacy, i.e. because the chiefs got lucky in the regular season, they're "due" to have that luck cancel out over the next 3 games. This is wrong because the next 1, 2, or 3 games are independent events.
It's also wrong because the chiefs rested all their starters in the final week of the season for a 0-38 blowout which was entirely unrepresentative of their normal level of play. This is polluting the pythagorean wins expectations, and is why they're ahead of the '22 Vikings by Pythag Win Rate Over Expected (PWROE).
The next part is "football speculation" which I think one can nebulously argue for or against; I'm personally not sure if it's true or not, but will raise it since it's something many chiefs partisans would mention. "The Chiefs take the regular season easy, and turn it on in the playoffs." This has been talked about e.g. last year, where they had a relatively ho-hum regular season, but then beat 3 much better teams by standard measures of efficiency (SRS, EPA, DVOA) in Buffalo, Baltimore, and San Francisco.
I am *NOT* a Chiefs fan, I'm a very loud, proud, obnoxious Patriots fan, but the "logic" and "arguments" here and not conclusive, and the narration is implying a false level of confidence that anyone with a modicum of statistical experience should be able to identify as flawed. Just because no team with a PWROE as high as the '24 Chiefs has won the Super Bowl before does not say that it is impossible for this current iteration of the Chiefs cannot. Further them *not* winning the Super Bowl would not be enough of a sample size to conclusively say that PWROE is meaningless.
Very disappointed that something this misleading is out there, and think it would be much better couched with the language of statistical probability, you mentioned vegas earlier, and they currently have an implied odds for the Chiefs winning of 20% (2nd only to Detroit) per Ben Baldwin: x.com/benbbaldwin/status/1878834440824328499/photo/1
Further DVOA implied odds (one of the best statistical measures of NFL performance) which takes into account on a play-by-play level of the Chiefs 2024 performance, instead of solely a points for/against metric, (this is better because play:play efficiency is more stable than end games points for/allowed) gives the Chiefs a 14.3% chance of victory.
I hope the Chiefs lose, but if they do win, I won't be gobsmacked, and I hope I've made a clear case why no-one else should be either.
Obviously it's not conclusive, the level of confidence is simply playing it up for fun. Playoff predictions aren't fun to make when the whole discussion is couched in "but I don't know"s and "but any given Sunday"s and "I could be wrong"s. Of course they're not due to have bad luck just because of good luck, but they will be facing stiff competition in the playoffs, where luck - good or bad - may not be sufficient to change the result.
I don't know what's misleading about this, it's one guy giving one opinion very explicitly based on a single statistic. It's for fun, and to tell a story.
Fellow loud proud obnoxious Patriots fan here.
@@WrathofMath Well you got the comment engagement you were after!
People underestimate the sports lover x math/stats lover crossover
A major difference between baseball, and football is that football is played on a clock. There is an incentive late in the game for a team that is ahead to attempt to run out the clock, even if it means scoring fewer points. This leads to games that look close in score, but were actually dominant wins because the winning team was forgoing points in order to hold on to possession at the end of the fourth quarter.
There’s a slight miscalculation in your equation, you use only the regular season however you don’t isolate playoff win/loss which will tweak your calculation
The Chiefs have a significantly better point differential than the Texans, their divisional opponent, who interestingly scored exactly as many points as they have allowed. If they win that they only need to get "lucky" two games in a row against presumably better competition which could happen.
As a math guy who doesn't care about football or baseball, this was really interesting and well presented. Thanks!
Thank you! I love football but don't care about baseball - but the research I did for this video made me care a little, I thought it was all very interesting.
Bro is about to eat his words
Already loving the Patrick Mahomes Kermit the frog sounding voice meme and seeing this guy represent the Chiefs with a frog cutout made me howl 👏🤣
So did you take all the injuries into account? Cuz we getting alot of missing pieces back for the playoffs...dude don't watch football because 70% of games now are decided by one score meaning these games go either way more often than not and it takes coaching and players to overcome those obstacles...putting this video out before we've even played a playoff games puts the numbers in your favor...make ur money off the chief haters.
If the chiefs threepeat, it'll be because of luck.
"Now consider a triangle, with one right angle.. this is called a right angled triangle" 3:33 😂😂😂
Love from new zealand! ❤ 🇳🇿
I started suspecting this was a Norm Macdonald joke when I got to "If you don't know what a walk is in baseball...".
Why is it that last year’s Pythagorean expectation is an accurate predictor of next season’s win-loss when the teams change so much year to year
The main winning component you forgot to plug in to your Pythagorean theory is Patrick Mahomes! 😂
The perfect script would be the Chiefs losing in the Super Bowl and being stopped dead in their tracks on a way to a three-peat. I think the Lions Or Eagles will upset the Chiefs.
Statistics just don't work as predictive influences for football in the same way they do for baseball. Fun and interesting video though. Do the math for every team and every season to test your model.
Pythagoreon Expectations are drastically less accurate in the NFL, and the Chiefs are a textbook bad application. The Chiefs tend to get ahead early in games and then let off the gas, because unlike in baseball where teams can score an unlimited number of runs per inning, that's the optimal strategy. This deflates the Chiefs PF - PA twice, since KC scores fewer points than they need to win, and allow more garbage time points than an average team.
The Chiefs simply have a slightly better than 12.5% chance to win the super bowl because they are competing against 7 other teams, but they're rested, they have home field advantage in the first two games, and they're marginally better than the average opponent they'll face.
One thing is like about sports are things like "They're the first team to ever..." and "They're the only team to have ever...".
Your theory is jaberwockey no factoring for the injury riddled season
It sounds to me like the Chiefs are proving that the Pythagorean Expectation used to work...
You can always tell a person is mathematically exact when they say “about” and they show the number to the thousands decimal place.
There’s another reason the Chiefs likely won’t win Super Bowl LIX.
They won 15 games in the regular season. The last 15(+) win team to win a Super Bowl was the 1985 Chicago Bears. Achieving a 15-win season is rare, yet in 2024 the NFL had two…and we’ve already seen the 15-2 Lions go down…
Nonsense. Football has always been a game of inches. A good example is the Chiefs 2020 Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay, a team they had previously beaten that year in that same stadium. So what had changed? Injuries. The Chiefs were playing without their two starting pro bowl tackles. And four of the five linemen were playing out of position. Every football injury is an inch or two from being a non-injury. In my experience watching NFL games, the best teams overcome injuries and win the most inches. This Chiefs team is as good as any have ever been at winning the most inches. They may not win the superbowl. But no one will be shocked if they do.
I agree the Chiefs were lucky this season, but they can still win the super bowl. Not predicting they actually will. I feel the Lions deserve to be the favorite and Vegas agrees with me. But I think you're putting too much emphasis on "exceeding the win expectation." The fact is that win expectation is a better measure of how good a team actually is than their actual win loss record is. So, while the Chiefs have overachieved they're still a team that's expected to win 59.7% of the time and that's good enough to win a Super Bowl sometimes. Three teams have won a Super Bowl with a worse win expectation. The 2011 Giants, for example, won the Super Bowl in spite of having given up more points than they scored in the regular season. And the fact that the Chiefs overachieved means only that they're more likely to do it as they've got themselves an easier path. For example, Saturday they play the Houston Texans who scored the same number of points as they gave up this year, giving them a .500 win expectation. So, they've got a weak first opponent and if they beat them they only have to win two more games.
Also, while only 3 teams won the Super Bowl with a win expectation worse than than the 2024 Chiefs. Since they lost that last game where they rested their starters 38-0, you might as well not count that game. If you take that out it raises their win expectations to 66.6%. It's still not spectacular and less than the average super bowl winner (73.8% btw), but 11 super bowl winners (one of which was the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs) have had win expectations worse than 66.6%. They wouldn't even be in the bottom sixth with that number.
Now, you've heard my smart guy analysis. My dumb guy analysis is "you should never say the team with the best quarterback in football has no chance."
falcons getting roasted in a math video is priceless :D
Ya statistically you can say any of the remaining teams will not win the Super Bowl and be right 87% of the time… great insight, you should work for a casino.
We blocked another field goal in today's divisional round vs the Texans. AFC Championship bound.
It’s devil magic
This is some serious cope
How do they decide the exponent? I mean specifically. Does it get adjusted?
There's decades of data... use that to find the exponent that best fits the data.
Wondering too
@@gadglichtg4840 Well, if I was to do it, I'd first normalize the data... it doesn't matter what the exact PF and PA are, just the ratios. With that the two values add up to 1, so the ratio for PA is equal to 1-PF. So we've reduced our function to one variable. Similarly, you take the results and normalize them by reducing them to the win percentage. So we have a function from one value to another, and lots of data. So we want a regression on that data... like finding the exponent that minimizes the sum of the squares of the errors. Personally, I'd just do it numerically, write a program to crunch the numbers and find the best fit to within a reasonable factor (which given the very discrete nature of "win-loss" records doesn't have to be that focused).
If anyone thinks they're gonna pass up the opportunity to script a Chiefs a 3-peat, you're crazy 🤣
This is Kelce's final season and he and Taylor Swift are still 'together'. That narrative won't go to waste.
2:06 "If you go up 28-3 on a team, well, it's a lock, you're not gonna lose that game."
The Atlanta Falcons would like a word with you...
What an essay, all the formula's stats and math for 36 minutes.
Chiefs and Mahomes will shoot this down in 13 seconds and threepeat
that wouldn't be very nice
Did you add Mahomes to your calculations?
I'm not a cheifs fan (go Lions) but Patty Mahomes laughs at your math. Unfortunately.
Haha this man knows what he’s doing because no matter what his video will get a lot of interaction from Chiefs fans and non-Chiefs fans alike 😂 Touché my guy 👌🏼
By this logic, 10-7 may not even make the playoffs, since they would have lost to the Chargers, who would have been 12-5 with that win.... This is why they play the game, folks.. :)
I wonder how the idea of "skipped points" factors into these formulas. For example, if two teams are playing baseball, and the team who plays second is in the lead as of the middle of the 9th inning, then they don't play that inning -- they have already won, and the points that they might have earned in that inning aren't counted in the total, even though the points they allowed (if any) in that inning are counted.
Or sometimes, if a football team is in the lead in the last 30 seconds or minute (not sure exactly what the limit is) and they have control of the ball, they might just put the ball down and do nothing, having won the game. They don't need to try to score on the last play. Maybe if they had played, they could have increased their lead, but they didn't.
I love this math side of sports. I thought you were padding time with the moneyball breakdown but I realized how it would all come together, and as a chiefs fan I’m biased to say the “clutch” gene can’t be 100% accounted for in such a small sample size, but loved the video! Glad I trusted the process!!
The thing is Mathematically the Chiefs can win it no matter what. Because they’re literally in the playoffs.
They won’t be doomed if they used something more natural.
instead of the devil magic they have been using?
@@WrathofMath
666 is a natural number, so devil magic is still an option.
As a math nerd and a big Chiefs fan, I sure hope we continue to defy the analytics predictions 😀
Also, we win these games by "inches", but we put ourselves in the position to do so. You can't get "lucky", if the other team is two scores ahead in the last minute...
Also the WR didn't back int the Defender, he jumped forward into him for that PI call. THUS PI. Not backing into the Defender. There is a difference when looking at stats objectively and trying to use stats to define why you believe something. Trying to prove WHY the Chiefs will lose, vs prove WHY they Chiefs will win, is still hard when stats don't take into account injuries and 2/3 the offense not being on the field until that last 2 weeks of the season. There's alot of nuance that effects things. I like the Statistical theory though. However, if stats were 100% accurate at predictions... Gambling wouldn't be gambling.
so so so so many things to say about this video. but i’ll keep it to a few. let’s start with the beginning of the video, moneyball. a science. a direct science. base runners get you runs, runs get you wins, wins get you world series titles. oh, wait. the athletics didn’t win any world series titles in that stretch. it’s almost as if sports… go much deeper than the numbers. secondly, “you wouldn’t count on a blocked field goal to win a game.” well actually, if you’re the chiefs, and you’re playing the broncos, that’s exactly what you’d do. now what do i mean by that? i mean the chiefs, having probably the greatest head coach of all time, and a spectacular special teams coordinator noticed something on film heading into this game. they notice that the broncos left guard frequently this season got completely ran over. so if the broncos are kicking a game winning field goal with time expiring, what do they do? overload that left guard with both a lot of players, AND the biggest linebacker on the team. who is that linebacker? Leo Chenal. and i bet you can guess who blocked the kick. Now lastly, arguably my favorite rebuttal of this entire video, is the single most important part of football. The quarterback. i picked both the Commanders and Bills to win this divisional weekend and why? well in a game where i believe things may be close, im picking the team that i believe has the advantage at quarterback. and sure enough, two teams had quarterbacks with flawless games, and two teams had quarterbacks with terrible games. you won’t guess who won. the better quarterbacks. the bills and the commanders. so where does that leave us? ah yes. patrick mahomes. there is no equation. there are no numbers. there is no mathematical reasoning to explain the things that patrick mahomes does. when there should be absolutely no chance a play is made, he makes it. and if you don’t believe me or you disagree, you simply haven’t been watching. number cannot take into account, the intangibility that is patrick mahomes. “when it’s grim, be the grim reaper.”
28-3 joke was hilarious!
Not incorporating playoff numbers into this calculation feels very misleading. They went 14-3 in the regular season in 2022 yes, but then they won 3 more games on top of that.
Also, those above expectations teams were almost all performing above expectations from a lower floor than the Chiefs operate at.
I'm not a Chiefs fan, I'm a Packers fan trying to remind folks we've already threepeated twice. But I just wanted to point those discrepancies out, they definitely skew the numbers more in the Chiefs favor.
Browns 5-peated
It would be cool if you did this same statistic for all the teams. We could do it our self but the video of which teams are the luckiest would be a good vid
You forgot 4 main things
1. The Chiefs are healthy the first time in the season going back to the playoffs
2. Andy Reid Holds off on the play book tell the playoffs so thr Chiefs went 15-1 without even using their best plays and this gives them an advantage as Film won't work well on them in the playoffs giving teams a surprise
3. Especially after last year you can see the Chiefs are just unbelievable clutch in the playoffs Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs
4. Chiefs have the most consecutive wins in NFL history in 1 score game since probably definitely shows they have a much better chance than what conventional odds will out them at
He's never seen a game, probably does know the size of an nfl roster...but he knows math...not football
The Chiefs' statistical outliers should be a stat all on their own.
@Bove_bove This guy doesn't even know math. His understanding of mathematics and probability is slightly ahead of my 3rd grade daughter.
The difference between the 2020 and 2024 chiefs is that the 2020 chiefs sustained major injuries leading into the Superbowl whereas the 2024 chiefs sustained injuries early in the season and midway through. The chiefs for their first playoff game will have all but possibly 1 player (outside of IR) available for this game. They had also picked up other players as a result to make up for those injured players who really outperformed what was expected. They have all that with their starters now and the main missing option is just Rice. Plus Andy Reid being a magic man and Mahomes playoff magic, the only loss I can see is if Butker can't hit field goals
You haven't watched a snap of Chiefs football.
Odds makers set odds to make the most money. They don't give a flip about the actual outcome of a "game".
They should make a movie about this. Maybe with Matt Damon and Ben Affleck
There are SO MANY variables that are not taken into account here. Strength of schedule, personnel changes, momentum, coaching strategy, much smaller sample size of season games, etc. This is essentially a more complex version of the "Chiefs are the worst 15 win team in NFL history because of point differential" argument. This fails to take into account that when given the opportunity to run up the score, Andy Reid always focuses on clock management instead. There were plenty of one score games this year that could've been blowouts, but Andy doesn't care about that. For the past few years, the Chiefs have only scored as many points as they needed to. They just don't care that much about the regular season.
Mahomes is also the best playoff QB on a per game average by almost every metric at this point in his career.
In the Super Bowl loss against the Bucs, the Chiefs didn't lose because their luck ran out. They lost because of a significantly deteriorated offensive line. Mahomes scrambled for over 500 yards behind the LOS in that game which is actually insane.
The inches argument is funny to me because players are taught that football is a game of inches. Every close game comes down to a handful of plays and in inch here or there, and you can make "what ifs" all day long for any team in any game.
The fact is, the Chiefs just need to be the better team for three more games, and they are more motivated than ever to make history. There are no guarantees in the NFL, but I wouldn't bet against the Chiefs.
Anything can happen on Sunday. There is a reason that the players and coaches make millions of dollars instead of mathematicians. The 2011 Giants scored 394 points and allowed 400 points in the regular season. They won the Super Bowl.
If Rice wasn't interfered with, he catches the ball. This video went from informational to pure copium real quick.
You forgot to add the Refs to the equation 😂
I will never count out the chiefs. They’ve been here a lot, Andy Reid knows how to hold plays
Thing is, there's not a lot of games now, so we are not gonna have this hope help us.
wow… my head is spinning.. can’t believe I watched 97.236% of this video … haters gonna hate ❤️🏈🧡
Patrick Mahomes defines all mathematical odds!
Not a huge fan of Sabermetrics but big fan of trolling Chiefs fans on a tabletop football field, nice video. Of note: if you had predicted the winners of WC games using W/L, you would have went 2-2. Using Pythagorean win totals, you'd go 1-3. Using Massey, you also would have gone 1-3.
One stat that proves they will => Travis Kelce is still dating Taylor Swift and her presence boosts ratings.
The most talented teams haven't been winning superbowls lately it's whoever the league wants to win them
People always forget that playoff Mahomes era chiefs are always better than regular season chiefs and they even went 15-2 this year with one game being without the starters and using mostly 3rd string and practice squad. Not saying there's no way the broncos could beat them but if it was a game that actually mattered it would've at very least been an extremely close game. Stop doubting my boys.
In the 100 year history of the nfl a qb had never won a championship in their first year on a team and a team had never won a superbowl In their own stadium both of these things finally happened in 2020 for the Bucs and then it just so happened to happen again in 2021 with the rams first year qb and own stadium
Bro made a whole statistics video out of spite. Impressive. What team do you guys think he supports?
I love football and I love math, and I am always happy to see math videos about football.
Also, the Chiefs won't win the Superbowl because the Eagles will. Go Birds!!! 🦅🦅🦅
Don't make us hurt you again like in Superbowl 56
@@starship2023eagles can't pass...next
Just from a gut feeling about the Chiefs, I think their luck is running out. Reminds me of Auburn in their BCS game in 2014. But then again even the worse teams bring their A-game when playing the champions. It would be interesting to see if the Patriots outdid their winning expectations and still won the Super Bowl.
As an eagles fan I would love the chiefs to not win another Super Bowl….however, we all know destiny is calling their name
The Ravens needed a two-point conversion if they made that touchdown. How many inches does that add?
chiefs also added 38 unnecessary point against benching starters in final game. if they played starters i would guess more like 66%+ expected win (little over 11 games) and roughly 22% above expected if they still lost.
2024: the team lost their WR1&2 & RB 1 so their offense has been crippled for most of the year. If you look at their trajectory over their last 6 games, they are finally back to full strength on offense. Their players are all healthy and ready to go. They also have the most playoff experience and past success than any other team left. Math that.
Not saying it’s a lock but they have a decent chance to do well.