Back tested ES on 4 hour chart with similar results. /ES from 1/3/23 - 8/27/23 Total BOS/Ch = 136 Total BOS = 96/136 (71%) Total BOS Body Breaks = 44/136 (32%) Total BOS Wick Breaks = 52/136 (38%) Total Ch = 40/136 (29%) Total Ch Body Breaks = 20/136 (15%) Total Ch Wick Breaks = 20/136 (15%)
BoS into BOS = 62/96 (65%) BoS into Ch = 33/95 (35%)
Ch into BOS = 33/40 (83%) Ch into Ch = 7/40 (18%)
BOS Body into BOS = 27/44 (61%) BOS Body into Ch = 17/44 (39%) BOS Wick into BOS = 36/52 (69%) BOS Wick into Ch = 15/52 (29%) Ch Body into BOS = 17/20 (85%) Ch Body into Ch = 3/20 (15%) Ch Wick into BOS = 16/20 (80%) Ch Wick into Ch = 4/20 (20%)
"Ch into BOS = 33/40 (83%)" would this mean that for example: 83% of the time, price drops down and takes out the low, it then continues upwards and breaks the high and continues upward with the bull trend?
Hi Paul, i just want to say that this is by far one of the best videos i have ever seen about trading. What you are teaching here is so important to ingrain belief in the strategy. Nobody teaches this. Nobody !! Watch the video, watch it agan and keep watching it until it clicks. Paul you are a Legend mate thankyou.
👍Great stuff. A clearly explained trading-approach of '(proven and commonsense) mathematical probalities', that's easy to grasp. (Your group is lucky indeed if you share for them your backtesting results for every currency pair!)👍
@@TradeForexwithPaul sorry for disturbing you Sir...but just that am a scalper and watching your videos for a while , so you promising us scalpers a video I have been coming back and also turn on notifications for weeks now....hope we will still be getting it Sir ...thank you More grace
Thank you buddy. Took a LONG TIME to figure out how to safely trade in those conditions. Basically, if there is still LQ or OB behind where you are getting involved in within a larger range, your target HAS to be shortened to the most recent swing high or low of the smaller timeframe, and not target the higher timeframe unless ALL OBs are eliminated. Also, stick pro-trend. Its 10x easier. Will screenshot this to remind me to make a video specific to it 🙌
I really hope you will do a follow up video to this... maybe where you came up with an refined entry trigger or some sort based on the informations you presented in this video :) Subbed!
Mate, great video and thanks but, @ 10:14, why wouldn’t you consider that low instead of the low you chose to consider…if the first low is the lowest point between the previous high and the candle that broke it?
I need another visual example because I still don't seem to grasp why you chose that first low. Watched it 6 times and maybe its because am not English
Thank you so much for this video sir, extremely insightful, easy to understand and down to earth. I have a question regarding your trading view setup. What are the pink candles and how relevant are they?
Hello Paul, amazing video!! I am also very familiar with the 4 hour BOS and pull back, it’s truly amazing! Quick question for you, and an idea for your next backtest since you have better software than I do to carry this out. By what. Parameters do you measure your pull back? I saw in another comment you said as soon as pride stops printing higher highest but what about pull backs which come down to 50% retracement? What is the percentage rate of that pullback creating a new BOS? As that would specifically give us the pull back we are looking for.
good question, I think that you should do a few backtests and find what fits best for you, determine your own rule. also would love to see an answer from Paul on this.
@@deejaymakito bro I’ve been backtesting all weekend 😭😭😭 but I’m going to do this tonight. Also I found the H4 BOS to be particularly accurate especially after price comes back down into the daily OrderBlock. For example daily OrderBlock candle formed - one of the next few daily candle comes down and touches the order block, sets up for a nice trade, which often create a BOS, I’d then like to know the percentage rate of retracement to 50% then further BOS after this sequence. Because then your entire trade parameters are set out for you.
I've just read this! Sorry! Use P/D for the HTF. Retracement is lets say in an uptrend that the high no longer prints higher, and also the low becomes lower. Only takes 1 candle to cause a retracement. Be careful though because depending where it is (between zones) the market will often do this as it needs to re-grab liquidity to move further.
@@TradeForexwithPaul haha No worries Paul, Ive been using the 4-hour timeframe and using P/D to map out structure. For example if you have a look at GBP/USD, beautiful order flow on the 4 hour, price come below 50% equilibrium and turns bullish. Now price has taken the highs I will ride it lower until it reaches 50% again. Then wait for price to turn bullish.
Hi Paul! When I trade I use several conformations like: 1) trend movement (upward/downward structure or BOS) 2) Synchonization of time frames 3) Fibonacci entry between 0.62 and 0.78 4) Momentum to POI 5) Liquidity 6) OB All these critezias has to be there for me to put in a position. I was wondering is there something more I can add in that you know that works?
I would love to know the results of this as well as the retracement values. EX: how man caused a BOS with a pullback of 50%, 62%. Might get to back testing….
There is a flaw with the probabilities here. If you take a trade on a lower timeframe then you only have a 75% prob if you put the Stop Loss below the previous low of the higher time frame. If you use lower time frame Stop Loss the probabiltiy changes significantly.
I see what you're saying but that's not how we trade it. This is a market direction video rather than trade entry. Will do the entries with RR to show that it just doesn't fail
I see what you're saying but that's not how we trade it. This is a market direction video rather than trade entry. Will do the entries with RR to show that it just doesn't fail
@@TradeForexwithPaul Yes, so the question is, what is the probability of each entry. This will vary I guess. Usually the higher the R:R the lower the probabiltiy. (Trader´s equation).
And just because you have 78% chance to get a Bos, does not mean autmatically that you have a meaningful entry and trade possibility. So this is not an edge per se. If you have entries which employ this directional probability (which I do not doubt) and these are profitable then we can talk about an edge. So , the directional bias is just a minor piece of the puzzle. Sorry for being critical, but I am working on this concept for a long time. It is not so easy unfortunately.
No no - you are exactly right with this bit mate. The edge part for this video anyway is understanding the odds of market direction. Keep your RR relatively high compared to your WL and you'll be fine generally speaking. There's additional confluences to add such as OBs. General POIs. Curved liquidity etc which will help decrease the number of losses as well. Keep up the hard work - it'll pay off
Hello Paul! I'm learning market structure. Please, explain. I watched it several times but still don't understand. Why you chose the low of 28th of December as CHOCH, not one of 30th of December? Time is 10:00. Then on a timestamp 14:05 there was BoS of two inside bars. So technically you could move CHOCH on top of highest inside bar, yet you referred to a rule that youade before and kept it at the same place. So we had new BoS but no new CHOCH. Can you kindly explain why? What is that rule?
Also, I've checked comments to this video. Yes, you answered this question at around 10:00, but still i find it unclear and don't understand. I don't know. Does this rule mean that for every two BoS in one direction we only have one CHOCH? And after we have the third one we move CHOCH forward?
Also, at the beginning of the video the first mark up in January was CHOCH Body 12:36. But in the end of the video 18:02 it has become BoS body. Why? Technically, it is a CHOCH body. Price broke through the low and uptrend became a downtrend.
@@TradeForexwithPaul Thank you for sharing data. I checked there and am also looking more into testing it myself. It is interesting even more to see how and when to enter after MSS or BOS is declared atc.
Would you please explain when do trade counter trend? How do you evaluate OB and Which setups do you take and which ones you leave? Also when do you take trades without Premium/Discount rule being present? You can go deep if you want I've watched all your videos and backtests, so don't worry I know most concepts. thank you Paul
Of course. So counter trend: the result there that was like 22% - thats the PERFECT counter trend scenario. Drop timeframe, look for inside bar, pin bar or choch and head it towards the HTF supply or demand. It'll hit so damn often its unreal. Checklist for the confluences on orderblocks. They also stand out visibly most of the time. Discount only if there isn't a nearby continuation trade on the LTF. Keep the RR above the probability of the trend continuing as well as deducting x for the number of OBs you identify. E.g. if you know you're on a 50% chance of reaching target and you have 3 OBs, then understand that you will have at worst-3, possibly -2 plus a winner than needs to be more than 1:6 to work over time.
"Keep the RR above the probability of trend continuing..." That was a neat point, thank you. btw Paul, ever since I met your channel I wanted to join your discord community to learn more, but because of my nationality, I was neither allowed nor could I afford to join, so I watched all the videos on your channel and kinda reverse engineered them and made a doc (based on abit of experience teaching trading to friends I have, some stuff are so ingrained that we don't even consider them as part of our strategy to teach or maybe some of them you left out only for the discord channel) it's in Eng though I've written it in "college student" style if get what I mean but I could fix it and send it to you maybe you'd like to take a look at it, add or subtract some stuffs and share it with the community, let me know if that intrests you.
Hey Paul, i just wanted to tell you that I will soon join FTR. I struggled to find an edge in the fx market testing out 100s of smc and price action strategies. Once I looked closer into your trading approach through your backtesting I saw my first clearly profitable results in the long run after tweaking it a bit for myself. Thanks a lot!! How much times your risk (R) do you pull out of the market on average per month?
Glad to hear that mate. Strategy gives typically 5R to 35R a week so 20 to around 140R a month. Takes balls to get the big ones though. Actual personal results. Nearer 5% a week consistently. Gotta grow my balls bigger 😄
@@TradeForexwithPaul yes big balls is insanely important if you want extraordinary results. I only trade EURUSD. I still got a lot to refine and learn seeing your results which are very consistent. I tried my best and went on getting 120R for the year of 2022 with FX replay and your tweaked trading approach with break even and 1-2 drawdown months in there… nothing compared to your consistency. Can’t wait to learn everything and join FTR!!
Hey Paul! Just found your channel and watched a couple of your strategy videos! Awesome work! Now I got a simple question: If there could be only one out of all your strategy videos which one would you recommend me to backtest and use the most? (maybe in terms of “most profitable”) ;D Thanks alot already !! 🙏🏻
Supply and demand ones - likely the higher ROI ones on TH-cam. Strategy has evolved a little bit to get less losses, but generally anything supply and demand is good. Just remember - zonal trading. Price runs to liquidity. Higher timeframes trump lower timeframes & that's about it. Can use BOS and ChoCh as a guideline for short term direction but that's about it. Entry criteria is pinbar through to choch. Lots of ways to get involved. good luck mate
Hey mate. Yes, for the past 3 years. Hasn't been easy and also not consistent until the last 2. Was hard - had to grow little account while also regularly withdrawing to pay my mortgage and bills. Finally over that crest now
Paul, nice video. Just one little suggestion that can help us: in addition to the bos/choch, add in your discussion also what is the current range and its highs and lows. For instance at 13.30-ish you setup the new potential choch line and declare the old high as "an old high". Which means that the potential new choch line is actually the new high of the new range that the market is telling us. Hopefully I got it right: the potential "new potential choch line" is the new high/low of the new range.
OK, I'm a bit unclear on something: You said that the low on 30 Dec 22 00:00 was not the CHOCH because the low on 29 Dec 22 08:00 came before. What is it that distinguishes that low from the ones before it. It would seem they all came before. Is it because it's the low of the candle that broke the previous BOS line or am I missing something really obvious?
Hi Paul, I am very interested in your approach. Do you find your win rate in real time is close to your back tested results? I will absolutely join your discord if you are getting results. I am sure you record them given your methodologies. Thank you. Luke
Thank you mate. No, unfortunately. I miss a lot of trades due to personal life but when backtesting you can get into the zone. The opportunities are still there, but living in Wales = no signal when outside the house to place trades. So alarms don't go off etc
BTW, win rate in aug is 40% exactly. 20 trades, 8 wins. 2 break evens and 10 outright losses. Only managed to get one trade in last week and that was a BE. Best was 13% in 1 day 2 weeks ago but it should have been more. Was lazy in taking all the positions available to me. Took only 2 of 4. 1 should have lost and the other won
Thanks Paul, your input is amazing! New subscriber here :) Please let me ask: What is a valid pullback for you? When I do back tests I sometimes get lost between Ch because I defined the last pullback not correctly (I guess), the result is a much too tight area so any candle will produce a new Ch.
You're welcome mate. Let's say the market is constantly breaking new highs candle by candle... the moment a new candle closes without printing a new high and has closed lower, that is a pullback.
Paul in your video when you show the entries on the spreadsheet, should the first entry not be a Choc Body Break (preceded by a BOS Wick)? You have it down as a BOS Body. Also when entering the previous break, should it go directly next to the current break or should it go in the cell above? I'm trying to follow your entries on your spreadsheet but that first one is throwing me. Thanks so much for this video by the way, I'm slowly getting my head around it.
Mate you're right. I did two edits of the start and got the first (possibly couple) wrong. The actual backtest I did was correct along with the data but the video I tried to recreate i got wrong. (I swear a lot without realising so have to edit so much before I can publish. Sometimes need to just redo whole video)
Good question... it was a work based learning document 60k words & a huge organisational restructure for a €10Bn/yr organisation. Studied business & economics
Hi Paul, thanks for your awesome content. I am learning ICT since some months and trading in general. How are you abled to only trade 15 minutes per day? I am a programmer an already have built some bot tools that take trades in zones i markup on a 5 min FVG. Do you think your approach could be automated in similar ways when i provide the specific zones? Would make your system be magic. Anyways, really nice work that you have done there!
Hi mate thanks for reaching out. Some of it can, some of it can't. I employ developers and they can't code some of the core price but bos choch etc can be coded, but it'll only get you basic results
This is so good. 2 questions. According to your rules, what is the rule for a pullback / confirmed high/low? And will you do a follow up video on combining the 4H with the 15m? 😁
Also, you said you wanted to collect data on at least 100 of each subset of trades. I’m half tempted to code your structure rules and collect at least 5000 BoS/ChoCh and then spit out the results for us 😅 only thing I’m not clear on is what you meant by the apex as far as marking out where the highs/lows are
👍It's been a while since we've had another excellent, workmanlike strategy from the Big Paul Guy. Not wishing to 'take liberties' but any chance of a new one soon ?!👍
The mistake many people make is focusing on the structure and not following the flow of the moment. It's as if you reached the extreme of the HTF and already executed the order without waiting for the flow to realign with the structure. Oh, it's loss forever
Sir can u make a detailed video on 15 min entry.. With this video we got a good idea about how to look at higher timeframe. If u make a video based on the lower timeframe entry it will be very useful for us
95 GBP for monthly subscription for discord. You mentioned, there are already 100 subscribers and growing. 95 x 100 = 9.5k monthly for every 100 subscribers. No need for trading anymore . Good idea. Wish you luck and wish luck to your subscribers !
I got 126 but it's probably taken him 2 or 3 days to edit/prepare the video for upload so a couple more BOS/Chocs would have happened in that time. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it lol :)
600k in funding using 10 accounts. Started off I think with 1 10k account. Used only withdrawal money to pay for further accounts. As far as I know he's not failed any as they all run via the same trade copier. Made I think 3 or 4 months salary from his job in his last payout using tiny % of his account. Probably the most consistent trader I've met. A lot better than myself. 🙌 Ah yeah and he does it around a job
@@TradeForexwithPaulah ok but you got the technical tools to that type of consistency too right? So the only thing separating you two is the psychology
@TradeForexwithPaul I had my ass handed to me trading today do you get days like this where you do everything right I took the correct pullbacks but they all went against me...on eu got me a bit down on myself for it
Jajajajaaj! I was thinking the same: I am a straight married man but dam! That picture is like a clickbait 😆. The content of the video is amazing, as always, by the way.
@@cancerberoesmost of Paul's videos are mind opening ones, I like his channel and the way he analyzes the chart .. So I'm a fan of Paul and Chris too 😅
your videos are superb Paul...But to be honest, i've watched every single one of them repeatedly for a year now, done everything you do but i'm losing money......i'm not getting it right mate. the aproach you applied on the 2hr long video you did on AUDJPY seems a bit different from how you trade EURUSD, how exactlitly were you predicting the dirrectional bias on that AJ video
I find that you can focus too much on what other people are doing. Like you see that he can make big returns in a short time so you think 'i must trade like him". But you will never see the charts like he does. It's not that you can't learn anything from watching his videos though... I am a learning trader and most of the time i do better if i focus on me and what makes sense to me.
Mate. Keep grafting. I know the vid you mean. I've had to really simplify how I see the charts when I started to teach people properly. Cant leave anything to subjectivity so have tried to narrow how a trend works like in this video and what probabilities there are based on exactly what the market does. The rest is just confluences to stack order blocks together and targeting. Most people take 2-4 months to fully grasp it in the group as there's a lot of previous unlearning to do. Also, making their videos a lot easier / step by step and live calls help too. Keep going mate 🙌
You might need to find something that works for you, instead of following someone else. Study the charts and you'll notice patterns right away. Back test those patterns until you find a pattern that wins 50% of the time and gets a 1:2 min Risk:Rward. Refine the strategy over time. In the end, your strategy should be simple, so don't overcomplicate it. If it takes you 24 minutes to explain your strategy, it's too complicated.
I agree with this. I started with the daily, then the LBO and merged the two when I realised price goes from zone to zone. Daily was super simple. Smaller RR but seconds to analyse. LBO meant time at the charts. How I now trade takes the two but applies at all times. I'll look at rhe charts generally once every 4 hours. Its a case of working something that fits your lifestyle/availability
Get to the point bro! 75% win rate? So on and so forth? FU*k! If you you've been around for longer than 3 years, you'll understand that this bro is gibbering - get to the point!
I dont make these videos out of my spare time for people to act like that. Find someone else to watch if you don't like it. And if you've been around for more than 3 years, you probably shouldn't be watching TH-cam vids on how to trade anymore, you should just be trading.
@@TradeForexwithPaul I suspect you make videos on your spare time to get people into your group, which is a huge money maker for you. I doubt you're doing these videos because you just want to help people, because if you did, your group would be free.
It used to be, and lately I made it into a business. People did not care for it when it was free, nor did they learn well. Invest and people pay attention and benefit more. The feedback i get is that 99% of free groups are shite. And just for insight. £40k income from a group annually does not pay the bills.
Back tested ES on 4 hour chart with similar results.
/ES from 1/3/23 - 8/27/23
Total BOS/Ch = 136
Total BOS = 96/136 (71%)
Total BOS Body Breaks = 44/136 (32%)
Total BOS Wick Breaks = 52/136 (38%)
Total Ch = 40/136 (29%)
Total Ch Body Breaks = 20/136 (15%)
Total Ch Wick Breaks = 20/136 (15%)
BoS into BOS = 62/96 (65%)
BoS into Ch = 33/95 (35%)
Ch into BOS = 33/40 (83%)
Ch into Ch = 7/40 (18%)
BOS Body into BOS = 27/44 (61%)
BOS Body into Ch = 17/44 (39%)
BOS Wick into BOS = 36/52 (69%)
BOS Wick into Ch = 15/52 (29%)
Ch Body into BOS = 17/20 (85%)
Ch Body into Ch = 3/20 (15%)
Ch Wick into BOS = 16/20 (80%)
Ch Wick into Ch = 4/20 (20%)
Fantastic job mate - well done 👏
What is ES?
Future S&P500
Thanks bro! Really appreciate it.
"Ch into BOS = 33/40 (83%)" would this mean that for example: 83% of the time, price drops down and takes out the low, it then continues upwards and breaks the high and continues upward with the bull trend?
Hi Paul, i just want to say that this is by far one of the best videos i have ever seen about trading. What you are teaching here is so important to ingrain belief in the strategy. Nobody teaches this. Nobody !!
Watch the video, watch it agan and keep watching it until it clicks.
Paul you are a Legend mate thankyou.
Love this! Thank you!
I’m gonna watch and learn from all of your videos. I mean all. The simplicity and step-by-step teachings. Thank you
What a legend!!! So glad im part of FTR
Glad to have you with us dude!
👍Great stuff. A clearly explained trading-approach of '(proven and commonsense) mathematical probalities', that's easy to grasp. (Your group is lucky indeed if you share for them your backtesting results for every currency pair!)👍
Thank you mate! I dont show them backtests anymore, just live trade alongside when I can. More market vision than hindsight 🙌
FANTASTIC PAUL... Love your work mate. Cheers, James.
Thanks man
absolute gold content... i'm just starting to learn and seeing your videos have given me confidence that there is a way.... thanks for sharing.
This is such a high vale content. Thanks dude!
Thank you 🤗.
Just implementing this simple exercise has really helped me tune out alot of the confusion. Thank you for this mate
Great stuff mate well done!
Paul, thank you for uploading, even if it's once in a while! 🤟
Thank you! Not got any others planned just yet. Quite busy over the next 3 weeks but we'll see :)
I was waiting for your new videos... great!! Thank you... You help me a lot...
Thats great to hear, thank you 😊
good video sir
...more grace, patiently waiting for the scalping video for we scalpers.
Coming soon mate :)
@@TradeForexwithPaul sorry for disturbing you Sir...but just that am a scalper and watching your videos for a while , so you promising us scalpers a video I have been coming back and also turn on notifications for weeks now....hope we will still be getting it Sir ...thank you More grace
Sorry mate. Just life getting in the way. All intention to make it
@@TradeForexwithPaul okay Sir , thanks 🙏
Awesome video mate!
Thank you mate
thank you so much.........blessings and greetings from Bulgaria
Thank you mate. Will visit Bulgaria one day
Thank you man 🙏❤ looking forward to the scalping video💯
Thank you! 🙌
Great video Paul. Of course the perennial problem (as with most trend following strategies) is when markets go into a range and chop you about.
Thank you buddy. Took a LONG TIME to figure out how to safely trade in those conditions. Basically, if there is still LQ or OB behind where you are getting involved in within a larger range, your target HAS to be shortened to the most recent swing high or low of the smaller timeframe, and not target the higher timeframe unless ALL OBs are eliminated. Also, stick pro-trend. Its 10x easier.
Will screenshot this to remind me to make a video specific to it 🙌
Thanks Paul. Looking forward to the video.@@TradeForexwithPaul
Thanks mate
@@TradeForexwithPaul would love to see the video! Thank you
I really hope you will do a follow up video to this... maybe where you came up with an refined entry trigger or some sort based on the informations you presented in this video :) Subbed!
Thank you :)
Will you be back-testing this new refinement? That would be a really good insight.
Absolutely. In the forum mate
Hi Paul
Could you please make a detailed video on PT following BOSBody?
I really appreciate your every video!!
Thank you so much!!
I will add it to my list mate thank you for the suggestion
Great video … will be joining the group at the end of May 😊
Glad to hear it mate
Another great video thanks Paul
Thank you mate
Mate, great video and thanks but, @ 10:14, why wouldn’t you consider that low instead of the low you chose to consider…if the first low is the lowest point between the previous high and the candle that broke it?
No worries mate. I think I explained around the 10:00 mark
I need another visual example because I still don't seem to grasp why you chose that first low. Watched it 6 times and maybe its because am not English
ah i get it now haha i feel dumb
@@shanghai2058yo can you explain that to me too cuz I still don’t get it 😅
Thank you so much for this video sir, extremely insightful, easy to understand and down to earth. I have a question regarding your trading view setup. What are the pink candles and how relevant are they?
Thank you - they are inside bars. Either LOADS of volume in them, or nothing - key in key areas, not to be used in ranges
Thank you so much. Really love your videos@@TradeForexwithPaul
Thank you!
Hi Paul do you share your trades in the discort all the time?
Yes mate
Hello Paul, amazing video!! I am also very familiar with the 4 hour BOS and pull back, it’s truly amazing! Quick question for you, and an idea for your next backtest since you have better software than I do to carry this out. By what. Parameters do you measure your pull back? I saw in another comment you said as soon as pride stops printing higher highest but what about pull backs which come down to 50% retracement? What is the percentage rate of that pullback creating a new BOS? As that would specifically give us the pull back we are looking for.
good question, I think that you should do a few backtests and find what fits best for you, determine your own rule. also would love to see an answer from Paul on this.
@@deejaymakito bro I’ve been backtesting all weekend 😭😭😭 but I’m going to do this tonight. Also I found the H4 BOS to be particularly accurate especially after price comes back down into the daily OrderBlock.
For example daily OrderBlock candle formed - one of the next few daily candle comes down and touches the order block, sets up for a nice trade, which often create a BOS, I’d then like to know the percentage rate of retracement to 50% then further BOS after this sequence. Because then your entire trade parameters are set out for you.
You could back test the pullback percentage but if you look at the FVGs Order blocks and Breaker blocks in the leg. That were the pullbacks go@@NZ_SMC
I've just read this!
Sorry!
Use P/D for the HTF. Retracement is lets say in an uptrend that the high no longer prints higher, and also the low becomes lower. Only takes 1 candle to cause a retracement. Be careful though because depending where it is (between zones) the market will often do this as it needs to re-grab liquidity to move further.
@@TradeForexwithPaul haha No worries Paul, Ive been using the 4-hour timeframe and using P/D to map out structure. For example if you have a look at GBP/USD, beautiful order flow on the 4 hour, price come below 50% equilibrium and turns bullish. Now price has taken the highs I will ride it lower until it reaches 50% again. Then wait for price to turn bullish.
Hi Paul!
When I trade I use several conformations like:
1) trend movement (upward/downward structure or BOS)
2) Synchonization of time frames
3) Fibonacci entry between 0.62 and 0.78
4) Momentum to POI
5) Liquidity
6) OB
All these critezias has to be there for me to put in a position. I was wondering is there something more I can add in that you know that works?
Just experience and testing it mate. Keep going - good work 👏
I would love to know the results of this as well as the retracement values. EX: how man caused a BOS with a pullback of 50%, 62%. Might get to back testing….
Results all in the forum mate
There is a flaw with the probabilities here. If you take a trade on a lower timeframe then you only have a 75% prob if you put the Stop Loss below the previous low of the higher time frame. If you use lower time frame Stop Loss the probabiltiy changes significantly.
I see what you're saying but that's not how we trade it. This is a market direction video rather than trade entry. Will do the entries with RR to show that it just doesn't fail
I see what you're saying but that's not how we trade it. This is a market direction video rather than trade entry. Will do the entries with RR to show that it just doesn't fail
@@TradeForexwithPaul Yes, so the question is, what is the probability of each entry. This will vary I guess. Usually the higher the R:R the lower the probabiltiy. (Trader´s equation).
And just because you have 78% chance to get a Bos, does not mean autmatically that you have a meaningful entry and trade possibility. So this is not an edge per se. If you have entries which employ this directional probability (which I do not doubt) and these are profitable then we can talk about an edge. So , the directional bias is just a minor piece of the puzzle. Sorry for being critical, but I am working on this concept for a long time. It is not so easy unfortunately.
No no - you are exactly right with this bit mate. The edge part for this video anyway is understanding the odds of market direction. Keep your RR relatively high compared to your WL and you'll be fine generally speaking.
There's additional confluences to add such as OBs. General POIs. Curved liquidity etc which will help decrease the number of losses as well. Keep up the hard work - it'll pay off
Hello Paul! I'm learning market structure. Please, explain. I watched it several times but still don't understand. Why you chose the low of 28th of December as CHOCH, not one of 30th of December? Time is 10:00. Then on a timestamp 14:05 there was BoS of two inside bars. So technically you could move CHOCH on top of highest inside bar, yet you referred to a rule that youade before and kept it at the same place. So we had new BoS but no new CHOCH.
Can you kindly explain why? What is that rule?
Also, I've checked comments to this video. Yes, you answered this question at around 10:00, but still i find it unclear and don't understand. I don't know. Does this rule mean that for every two BoS in one direction we only have one CHOCH? And after we have the third one we move CHOCH forward?
Also, at the beginning of the video the first mark up in January was CHOCH Body 12:36. But in the end of the video 18:02 it has become BoS body. Why? Technically, it is a CHOCH body. Price broke through the low and uptrend became a downtrend.
How many Choch Body lead to any BOS?
Test it - it varies for different pairs and timeframes
@@TradeForexwithPaul Thank you for sharing data. I checked there and am also looking more into testing it myself. It is interesting even more to see how and when to enter after MSS or BOS is declared atc.
Is there live zoom or trading in your discord ?
Yes, sometimes mate. 3x scheduled calls a week. Sometimes more
Are you trading the major pairs or just EUR
EU. AU, GU, UC
Since you have refined your strategy, I wouldn't mind seeing how you look for entries on the 15m chart. Are you marking up the 15m chart the same way?
Very similarly. Thinking of making a video today so might do this
@@TradeForexwithPaul make a video about it, please 🙏
yes please paul
@@rafaelmonteiro559
@@TradeForexwithPaul Would be great to see you doing a blind back test like your old videos, but with your improved strategy in play
Was only thinking this today! Nice!
do you set your goals according to liquidity, buddy?
Largely
thx for great content but I have a question. How to validate a pull back? Pull backs definitely affects Choch and BoS counts. Thx again
Next candle pullback / not break new high/low yet create an apex on the other side
Would you please explain when do trade counter trend? How do you evaluate OB and Which setups do you take and which ones you leave?
Also when do you take trades without Premium/Discount rule being present?
You can go deep if you want I've watched all your videos and backtests, so don't worry I know most concepts. thank you Paul
Of course.
So counter trend: the result there that was like 22% - thats the PERFECT counter trend scenario. Drop timeframe, look for inside bar, pin bar or choch and head it towards the HTF supply or demand. It'll hit so damn often its unreal.
Checklist for the confluences on orderblocks. They also stand out visibly most of the time. Discount only if there isn't a nearby continuation trade on the LTF. Keep the RR above the probability of the trend continuing as well as deducting x for the number of OBs you identify.
E.g. if you know you're on a 50% chance of reaching target and you have 3 OBs, then understand that you will have at worst-3, possibly -2 plus a winner than needs to be more than 1:6 to work over time.
"Keep the RR above the probability of trend continuing..." That was a neat point, thank you. btw Paul, ever since I met your channel I wanted to join your discord community to learn more, but because of my nationality, I was neither allowed nor could I afford to join, so I watched all the videos on your channel and kinda reverse engineered them and made a doc (based on abit of experience teaching trading to friends I have, some stuff are so ingrained that we don't even consider them as part of our strategy to teach or maybe some of them you left out only for the discord channel) it's in Eng though I've written it in "college student" style if get what I mean but I could fix it and send it to you maybe you'd like to take a look at it, add or subtract some stuffs and share it with the community, let me know if that intrests you.
I love your effort mate. Reach out on Instagram and I'll help you out (I'm the verified profile btw - there's a lot of fake ones)
Do you enter at a Order blocks with stop below the OB's, or are your stops always under swing low?
OBs mate
@@TradeForexwithPaul what's your usual OB entry.. at the 50% or 25 or deeper
.25 for m15, .5 for every other timeframe
Hey Paul, i just wanted to tell you that I will soon join FTR.
I struggled to find an edge in the fx market testing out 100s of smc and price action strategies. Once I looked closer into your trading approach through your backtesting I saw my first clearly profitable results in the long run after tweaking it a bit for myself. Thanks a lot!!
How much times your risk (R) do you pull out of the market on average per month?
Glad to hear that mate. Strategy gives typically 5R to 35R a week so 20 to around 140R a month. Takes balls to get the big ones though.
Actual personal results. Nearer 5% a week consistently. Gotta grow my balls bigger 😄
@@TradeForexwithPaul yes big balls is insanely important if you want extraordinary results. I only trade EURUSD. I still got a lot to refine and learn seeing your results which are very consistent. I tried my best and went on getting 120R for the year of 2022 with FX replay and your tweaked trading approach with break even and 1-2 drawdown months in there… nothing compared to your consistency. Can’t wait to learn everything and join FTR!!
Great vidio Paul Thanks
Thank you 🙌🤗
Great analysis once again, thanks Paul, p.s. hope your health has improved.👍
Thanks so much mate 🙌
Hey Paul! Just found your channel and watched a couple of your strategy videos! Awesome work!
Now I got a simple question: If there could be only one out of all your strategy videos which one would you recommend me to backtest and use the most?
(maybe in terms of “most profitable”) ;D
Thanks alot already !! 🙏🏻
Supply and demand ones - likely the higher ROI ones on TH-cam. Strategy has evolved a little bit to get less losses, but generally anything supply and demand is good.
Just remember - zonal trading. Price runs to liquidity. Higher timeframes trump lower timeframes & that's about it.
Can use BOS and ChoCh as a guideline for short term direction but that's about it. Entry criteria is pinbar through to choch. Lots of ways to get involved.
good luck mate
@@TradeForexwithPaul Thank you very much for your answer 🙏🏻 so I guess I start with your Breakout strat videos ?
Thank you! Yes, good place to start. More recent though if poss - I have slowly evolved the strategy over time along with my results
Thank you for this paul, you are the trader I am trying to emulate!! I was curious is trading your #1 source of income?
Hey mate. Yes, for the past 3 years. Hasn't been easy and also not consistent until the last 2. Was hard - had to grow little account while also regularly withdrawing to pay my mortgage and bills. Finally over that crest now
Paul, nice video. Just one little suggestion that can help us: in addition to the bos/choch, add in your discussion also what is the current range and its highs and lows. For instance at 13.30-ish you setup the new potential choch line and declare the old high as "an old high". Which means that the potential new choch line is actually the new high of the new range that the market is telling us. Hopefully I got it right: the potential "new potential choch line" is the new high/low of the new range.
What does PT stand for on the list at the beginning of the video…. My guess is “Pro trend” am I right?..
Spot on mate
OK, I'm a bit unclear on something: You said that the low on 30 Dec 22 00:00 was not the CHOCH because the low on 29 Dec 22 08:00 came before. What is it that distinguishes that low from the ones before it. It would seem they all came before. Is it because it's the low of the candle that broke the previous BOS line or am I missing something really obvious?
Hi Paul, I am very interested in your approach. Do you find your win rate in real time is close to your back tested results? I will absolutely join your discord if you are getting results. I am sure you record them given your methodologies. Thank you. Luke
Thank you mate. No, unfortunately. I miss a lot of trades due to personal life but when backtesting you can get into the zone. The opportunities are still there, but living in Wales = no signal when outside the house to place trades. So alarms don't go off etc
BTW, win rate in aug is 40% exactly. 20 trades, 8 wins. 2 break evens and 10 outright losses. Only managed to get one trade in last week and that was a BE.
Best was 13% in 1 day 2 weeks ago but it should have been more. Was lazy in taking all the positions available to me. Took only 2 of 4. 1 should have lost and the other won
what does apex mean?
spikes with space either side basically
Thanks Paul, your input is amazing! New subscriber here :)
Please let me ask: What is a valid pullback for you? When I do back tests I sometimes get lost between Ch because I defined the last pullback not correctly (I guess), the result is a much too tight area so any candle will produce a new Ch.
You're welcome mate.
Let's say the market is constantly breaking new highs candle by candle... the moment a new candle closes without printing a new high and has closed lower, that is a pullback.
Paul in your video when you show the entries on the spreadsheet, should the first entry not be a Choc Body Break (preceded by a BOS Wick)? You have it down as a BOS Body. Also when entering the previous break, should it go directly next to the current break or should it go in the cell above?
I'm trying to follow your entries on your spreadsheet but that first one is throwing me. Thanks so much for this video by the way, I'm slowly getting my head around it.
Yeah I am doing the same and agree think the first should be choc body
Yeah I have double checked when he is first going through it he labels it as 4 cb so likely just a simple mistake
Mate you're right. I did two edits of the start and got the first (possibly couple) wrong. The actual backtest I did was correct along with the data but the video I tried to recreate i got wrong. (I swear a lot without realising so have to edit so much before I can publish. Sometimes need to just redo whole video)
Just curious, what did your university thesis look like?
Good question... it was a work based learning document 60k words & a huge organisational restructure for a €10Bn/yr organisation. Studied business & economics
Hi Paul, thanks for your awesome content. I am learning ICT since some months and trading in general. How are you abled to only trade 15 minutes per day? I am a programmer an already have built some bot tools that take trades in zones i markup on a 5 min FVG. Do you think your approach could be automated in similar ways when i provide the specific zones? Would make your system be magic. Anyways, really nice work that you have done there!
Hi mate thanks for reaching out. Some of it can, some of it can't. I employ developers and they can't code some of the core price but bos choch etc can be coded, but it'll only get you basic results
sir i didnt understand previous and current break i am confused ??????????????
This is so good. 2 questions. According to your rules, what is the rule for a pullback / confirmed high/low? And will you do a follow up video on combining the 4H with the 15m? 😁
Also, you said you wanted to collect data on at least 100 of each subset of trades. I’m half tempted to code your structure rules and collect at least 5000 BoS/ChoCh and then spit out the results for us 😅 only thing I’m not clear on is what you meant by the apex as far as marking out where the highs/lows are
Hell yeah, share the code if you do :D Apex just means higher lows to each side and lower highs to each side
@@TradeForexwithPaul Hey Paul, I've coded up your structure rules and would like to get some feedback. Where should I share?
choc body, choc body, choc body, choc wick. It reminded me of the Fuzzy Duck drinking game!
Hahaha
👍It's been a while since we've had another excellent, workmanlike strategy from the Big Paul Guy. Not wishing to 'take liberties' but any chance of a new one soon ?!👍
Good timing mate. Filming as we speak
Thank You
The mistake many people make is focusing on the structure and not following the flow of the moment. It's as if you reached the extreme of the HTF and already executed the order without waiting for the flow to realign with the structure. Oh, it's loss forever
I do agree to an extent! Flow is really important, but structure keeps you sane with LTF directions. Keep up the good work mate
❤Thank You Lot Of
Welcome :)
Your camera pixels are very bad but good knowledge video
Haha thank you
what does he mean by apex?
Chevron/ lower highs both sides or higher lows (3 candle pattern)
thank you...
You're most welcome
Liquidity into a ob is aces
Too right 💪
Nowadays i feel market is not respecting order block its reversing only after hitting the stoploss of the order block
If that happens you can trade a continuation or confirmation
Confirmation means waiting for a reversal pattern uh
Plus confirmation of that. So choch followed by bos
Sir can u make a detailed video on 15 min entry.. With this video we got a good idea about how to look at higher timeframe. If u make a video based on the lower timeframe entry it will be very useful for us
Will do mate
Are you going to backtest the whole 2023 year on youtube?
I was going to, but it takes 60-90 minutes per week
@@TradeForexwithPaul we need these videos mate
I think I will do this - I want the stats from them as well
95 GBP for monthly subscription for discord. You mentioned, there are already 100 subscribers and growing. 95 x 100 = 9.5k monthly for every 100 subscribers. No need for trading anymore . Good idea. Wish you luck and wish luck to your subscribers !
Haha won't make a lifetime of income though will it mate. Got to trade.
10k per month is nothing if you’re in the trading game long term.
Exactly
"Next video shall be in next few weeks"
Life. Be patient.
ended up getting 127 🤔 just need to figure out where I went wrong 🤣
I got 126 but it's probably taken him 2 or 3 days to edit/prepare the video for upload so a couple more BOS/Chocs would have happened in that time. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it lol :)
Literally yess 😄. More since
You mean there’s a guy 600k funded *10 so around 6 million funded right?
600k in funding using 10 accounts. Started off I think with 1 10k account. Used only withdrawal money to pay for further accounts.
As far as I know he's not failed any as they all run via the same trade copier.
Made I think 3 or 4 months salary from his job in his last payout using tiny % of his account.
Probably the most consistent trader I've met. A lot better than myself. 🙌
Ah yeah and he does it around a job
@@TradeForexwithPaulah ok but you got the technical tools to that type of consistency too right? So the only thing separating you two is the psychology
Time availability and psychology mate. 100%
Does he use this same strategy? Curious what his win rate and R:R is. Inspiring. Great videos and comments btw
Yes mate. Our win rates vary between around 23% up to around 40%
❤
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@TradeForexwithPaul I had my ass handed to me trading today do you get days like this where you do everything right I took the correct pullbacks but they all went against me...on eu got me a bit down on myself for it
It happens - happened to me last week, but this week a beaut
I like the way you explain, but away from trading: You kinda look like "Chris Hemsworth," the actor... do you know that ?? 🤩
Jajajajaaj! I was thinking the same: I am a straight married man but dam! That picture is like a clickbait 😆. The content of the video is amazing, as always, by the way.
@@cancerberoesmost of Paul's videos are mind opening ones, I like his channel and the way he analyzes the chart .. So I'm a fan of Paul and Chris too 😅
I'll take that w any day 😄🤗
You look like a better looking Ricky Gervais 😅
I'll take that 😉
your videos are superb Paul...But to be honest, i've watched every single one of them repeatedly for a year now, done everything you do but i'm losing money......i'm not getting it right mate. the aproach you applied on the 2hr long video you did on AUDJPY seems a bit different from how you trade EURUSD, how exactlitly were you predicting the dirrectional bias on that AJ video
I find that you can focus too much on what other people are doing. Like you see that he can make big returns in a short time so you think 'i must trade like him". But you will never see the charts like he does. It's not that you can't learn anything from watching his videos though... I am a learning trader and most of the time i do better if i focus on me and what makes sense to me.
Mate. Keep grafting. I know the vid you mean. I've had to really simplify how I see the charts when I started to teach people properly. Cant leave anything to subjectivity so have tried to narrow how a trend works like in this video and what probabilities there are based on exactly what the market does.
The rest is just confluences to stack order blocks together and targeting.
Most people take 2-4 months to fully grasp it in the group as there's a lot of previous unlearning to do. Also, making their videos a lot easier / step by step and live calls help too.
Keep going mate 🙌
You might need to find something that works for you, instead of following someone else. Study the charts and you'll notice patterns right away. Back test those patterns until you find a pattern that wins 50% of the time and gets a 1:2 min Risk:Rward. Refine the strategy over time. In the end, your strategy should be simple, so don't overcomplicate it. If it takes you 24 minutes to explain your strategy, it's too complicated.
I agree with this. I started with the daily, then the LBO and merged the two when I realised price goes from zone to zone.
Daily was super simple. Smaller RR but seconds to analyse. LBO meant time at the charts. How I now trade takes the two but applies at all times. I'll look at rhe charts generally once every 4 hours.
Its a case of working something that fits your lifestyle/availability
Any victims of My forex funds
Yeah, one in FTR -$500k :(
Get to the point bro! 75% win rate? So on and so forth? FU*k! If you you've been around for longer than 3 years, you'll understand that this bro is gibbering - get to the point!
I dont make these videos out of my spare time for people to act like that. Find someone else to watch if you don't like it. And if you've been around for more than 3 years, you probably shouldn't be watching TH-cam vids on how to trade anymore, you should just be trading.
Wouldn’t it be frustrating if no one took the time to offer their amazing knowledge free of charge to the world on TH-cam 🤔
@@TradeForexwithPaul I suspect you make videos on your spare time to get people into your group, which is a huge money maker for you. I doubt you're doing these videos because you just want to help people, because if you did, your group would be free.
It used to be, and lately I made it into a business. People did not care for it when it was free, nor did they learn well.
Invest and people pay attention and benefit more.
The feedback i get is that 99% of free groups are shite.
And just for insight. £40k income from a group annually does not pay the bills.