An interesting point and question would be, how much of this inventory has sold previous to now-and within the last 4 years?! Folks in TX are NOT wanting to hold the bag….if you know u know!
Come on down to Florida the Port St. Lucie area my friend works for the building department and permits are being issued . There’s new developments being approved going up everywhere.
Thank you Jason!!! In these inventory update videos comparing now to prepandemic, would you be able to weave in a comparison of demand between now and then on a regional basis using a basket of proxy metrics such as building permits data, contracts signed, or other representations of transactional volume or new mortgage issuance? That context would be extremely useful in interpreting the data.
Do you think you will see a rise in new listing soon with the Intel campus closing down in sacto? facebook just announced today more layoffs in the bay area
I don't expect that to impact the housing market here at all given the current level of layoffs (a few hundred in Nov and 549 earlier this year). Intel has plans to sell the campus but lease back space it needs. It's not closing down their Folsom campus.
In any desirable location, all over the world, it is the same story. Up, up, up over the long term. It is very difficult to build up supply in any desirable location. And even then, it doesn’t matter over the long term. NYC is the most built up location in the USA, is it the cheapest? Developers could easily build small, basic, cheap homes on cheap land, but people are too entitled today compared to 50-100 years ago. Everyone wants to live in the best locations, hence high prices.
Maybe I missed it but this data does not include new homes? There are multiple new communities near me with 50+ new homes and lots sitting vacant. If this data does not include new home builds then we need to apply another multiplier because many builders have homes sitting vacant.
Every market might be different, but eventually they are all connected. 08 housing crashed everywhere, 2021 housing skyrocketed everywhere. 2024....a bubble pops everywhere?
@@iishyxvietxboyii1just bc San Jose crashed doesn't really mean anything, it's not like San Jose is magically impervious to any economic factors. That's like saying "Wal Mart even closed it's stores in San Jose". North Dakota and Oklahoma didn't drop at all.
@@nitroneonicmantrue! The Midwest saw “mostly” level growth. They didn’t crash, but they also didn’t bubble! That’s what is so alarming this time. You have areas where zero migration happened and yet sellers are coat-tailing price increases. Heck, the middle of nowhere WV is up for zero reason lol.
If your market’s average wage growth kept up with 2x and 3x prices you might be fine. Migration of money could keep other areas up, and/or looser (more risk) lending ex: CA where lenders allow more backend dti. 😮
I found it interesting how CA and Sacramento have fewer homes for sale than 5yrs ago but other pandemic boom towns are seeing much higher inventory levels.
Supply is almost there, but demand is so pent up that I think the market will remain balanced for awhile unless we see some real economic distress. At least maybe 2025 will only be up 1-3% vs the 5-7% we keep seeing 😂
I agree with you. Some metros will see larger gains whereas others will see declines. Nationally speaking I think we'll see small gains unless something breaks or if rates move greatly in either direction.
This pent up demand is being tracked how? Surveys? Denied loans? Guys, the Fed doesn’t cut rates in a booming economy, or do they? Nobody seems to know. I wouldn’t hold my breath on all this shadow demand.
@ tell the home price index guys that, not me. I do know that rates follow a 20 year cycle. Roughly. 10 year biz cycle, etc. Historically. I’m also not one to wait on rates. Total price matters. Rates are for suckering people into monthly payments they truly cannot afford.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 and that’s my point with these guys! They tout economists averages on national list pricing but not the same folks talking rates. They are trolls! I’m here for it all.
Builders are greedy in California where they don't build a home unless buyer signs contract and gives down so inventory never stacks so they purposely keep the price high similar to car industry real disgusting the design
@nonexistent5030 my point is the design benefits the corporation not the buyer that's why it's the most unaffordable time to buy in history and that's why people are tired of and dems then they wonder why they lost in a landslide and are crying all day, people want change and want it to just be able to afford life
@@JoeGarcia-cg1pp49% to 48% isn't a landslide ding dong. Stop listening to Faux news. Trump, the first US President to demonstrate a blow job on a microphone stand at a rally, for the World to see. Trump, the first US President to talk at length about Arnold Palmer's genitals at a rally, for the World to hear. Trump loves the gullible, the uneducated, the racists and the billionaires. Are U a billionaire?
Anyone surprised by the direction the market is heading is either living in denial or just plain dumb. Did you really think home prices would go up forever? lol Inventory is rising rapidly. Days on market is growing with each listing. Price reductions are everywhere. Foreclosures are rising rapidly. Who really believes that this is going to end well for the homeowners out there? Especially those who are already spread thin with sticky inflation only getting worse. 😅 The trillion dollar homes crowd is really entertaining to watch as their perceived equity evaporates before their eyes. Have fun chasing this crash to the bottom
Home prices have been going up. Look at figures going back 100 years and you'll find a couple dips...but overall homes are more expensive today. That is called inflation.
@@tour80these “dips” you speak of are exactly what we are talking about. If you look at the data as you yourself suggests….you’ll notice we are in 3x dip potential. We’ve never had a pandemic like this-not in the last 100 years-and NEVER with total economic shut down!
@@LockedUpLarry Take a look at the Median home price in 2014 ($275,000) and add 4% each year through 2025. You get a Median price of about $420k. You're down from the highs in 2022 so this is the dip you want. Look around the world though, US has some of the most affordable real estate around and when you factor in Jobs, it's not even close.
@ I’m good! I live in the south, brother! Our median was way lower than that. Google says 110k. And to my main point…. this complete spread is unprecedented. Even in the 08’ “crash” there were areas not affected by the bubble and then pop.
@ even if you adjust for inflation….we are in uncharted waters throughout so many areas of our economy: debt (obvious one), unrealized bank losses, personal consumer debt (not to be confused with national debt), home price to wage gap, MBS holdings since 2008’s Fannie and Freddie conservatorship laws…. I could go on. No point though.
Great stuff Jason. 2025 is shaping up to be very interesting.
Certainly is going to be interesting 👍
An interesting point and question would be, how much of this inventory has sold previous to now-and within the last 4 years?! Folks in TX are NOT wanting to hold the bag….if you know u know!
Fantastic discussion Jason
Excellent analysis, appreciate you as always
Thank you Sir
I always love listening to you
Thank you for tuning in, Matt!
Thank you Jason!
Excellent presentation as usual.
Congratulations!
Glad you liked it!
As inventory climbs won't prices come down eventually?
High regulations/permit fees leads to less building, less inventory and higher prices. No mystery.
The California and Canadian stories.
Unfortunately, that’s not the story in the US. These homes are going up rapidly and the quality of construction is on the major decline.
@aprilgentile5438 Where do you live? Obviously not in CA!
@@aprilgentile5438 Where? I need a house asap. Please let us know where you are seeing the overbuilding.
Come on down to Florida the Port St. Lucie area my friend works for the building department and permits are being issued . There’s new developments being approved going up everywhere.
Thank you Jason!!!
In these inventory update videos comparing now to prepandemic, would you be able to weave in a comparison of demand between now and then on a regional basis using a basket of proxy metrics such as building permits data, contracts signed, or other representations of transactional volume or new mortgage issuance?
That context would be extremely useful in interpreting the data.
Do you think you will see a rise in new listing soon with the Intel campus closing down in sacto? facebook just announced today more layoffs in the bay area
I don't expect that to impact the housing market here at all given the current level of layoffs (a few hundred in Nov and 549 earlier this year). Intel has plans to sell the campus but lease back space it needs. It's not closing down their Folsom campus.
Great update thanks Jason.
Thank you Jasson!
#1 and happy Tuesday Jason😊
#RealEstateIsLocal
#LetsGetNerdy😀
Happy Tuesday, Steve!
Good morning everyone!
Lets get nerdy...
Good morning!
In any desirable location, all over the world, it is the same story. Up, up, up over the long term.
It is very difficult to build up supply in any desirable location. And even then, it doesn’t matter over the long term. NYC is the most built up location in the USA, is it the cheapest?
Developers could easily build small, basic, cheap homes on cheap land, but people are too entitled today compared to 50-100 years ago.
Everyone wants to live in the best locations, hence high prices.
Maybe I missed it but this data does not include new homes? There are multiple new communities near me with 50+ new homes and lots sitting vacant. If this data does not include new home builds then we need to apply another multiplier because many builders have homes sitting vacant.
Excludes new builds
They are two different sub markets so they have their own datasets.
Every market might be different, but eventually they are all connected. 08 housing crashed everywhere, 2021 housing skyrocketed everywhere. 2024....a bubble pops everywhere?
08 didn't crash everywhere actually.
And prices did NOT skyrocket everywhere either. Be truthful with your statements please.
@@nitroneonicmanEven San Jose, CA crashed.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1just bc San Jose crashed doesn't really mean anything, it's not like San Jose is magically impervious to any economic factors. That's like saying "Wal Mart even closed it's stores in San Jose". North Dakota and Oklahoma didn't drop at all.
@@nitroneonicmantrue! The Midwest saw “mostly” level growth. They didn’t crash, but they also didn’t bubble! That’s what is so alarming this time. You have areas where zero migration happened and yet sellers are coat-tailing price increases. Heck, the middle of nowhere WV is up for zero reason lol.
If your market’s average wage growth kept up with 2x and 3x prices you might be fine. Migration of money could keep other areas up, and/or looser (more risk) lending ex: CA where lenders allow more backend dti. 😮
And tents are the new norm .
Many CA markets are seeing inventory declnes.
#EveryHousingMarketIsDifferent😊
Yep!
Where Cali goes.
There goes the U.S housing market.
I found it interesting how CA and Sacramento have fewer homes for sale than 5yrs ago but other pandemic boom towns are seeing much higher inventory levels.
@JasonWalter1
Very interesting indeed.
You have a fabulous mind for this.
It's time-consuming indeed, but very much appreciated. Thank you
@renelopez2244 Thank you very much 😀
Except for California (40 million people)
Northeast 😮
What a difference compared to the Sunbelt, right?
I’m literally trying to buy my first home here in Connecticut… I always time markets wrong 😂
@@gregorydearmond6817 😆
@ Definitely, 2 different worlds.
Supply is almost there, but demand is so pent up that I think the market will remain balanced for awhile unless we see some real economic distress. At least maybe 2025 will only be up 1-3% vs the 5-7% we keep seeing 😂
I agree with you. Some metros will see larger gains whereas others will see declines. Nationally speaking I think we'll see small gains unless something breaks or if rates move greatly in either direction.
This pent up demand is being tracked how? Surveys? Denied loans? Guys, the Fed doesn’t cut rates in a booming economy, or do they? Nobody seems to know. I wouldn’t hold my breath on all this shadow demand.
Where do you see the Phoenix market going for new home sales in 2025 ?
Are you related to Catherine Gregory?
Nope. Who is she?
@@JasonWalter1 She has a TH-cam channel - travel, hiking, camping. You’re both so similar in the way you talk. You could pass for siblings 😁
Also with rates coming down next year could mean more demand next year
Economists are predicting rates will remain in 6-6.8 range for the next 2 years!
Yeah, rates aren’t moving until near 2030
@@LockedUpLarryWhen the hell economists actually get it right,
lol?
@ tell the home price index guys that, not me. I do know that rates follow a 20 year cycle. Roughly. 10 year biz cycle, etc. Historically. I’m also not one to wait on rates. Total price matters. Rates are for suckering people into monthly payments they truly cannot afford.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 and that’s my point with these guys! They tout economists averages on national list pricing but not the same folks talking rates. They are trolls! I’m here for it all.
Builders are greedy in California where they don't build a home unless buyer signs contract and gives down so inventory never stacks so they purposely keep the price high similar to car industry real disgusting the design
Greedy? They’ve learned from 2008…
Why would they build a home for a buyer that isn't there only to have to cut prices on a leveraged asset? That would be stupid...
@nonexistent5030 my point is the design benefits the corporation not the buyer that's why it's the most unaffordable time to buy in history and that's why people are tired of and dems then they wonder why they lost in a landslide and are crying all day, people want change and want it to just be able to afford life
@@JoeGarcia-cg1pp49% to 48% isn't a landslide ding dong. Stop listening to Faux news.
Trump, the first US President to demonstrate a blow job on a microphone stand at a rally, for the World to see.
Trump, the first US President to talk at length about Arnold Palmer's genitals at a rally, for the World to hear.
Trump loves the gullible, the uneducated, the racists and the billionaires. Are U a billionaire?
For the #Algorithm😊
Good morning and Thank you!
Useless video. New listings are still too high.
Oh please. Jason says inventory was down just a little while ago,now he says its up 200%,GET YOUR STORY STRAIGHT BEFORE posting lies on your channel.
Let me guess: you didn't watch the video, right?
@JasonWalter1 get your story straight.
Anyone surprised by the direction the market is heading is either living in denial or just plain dumb. Did you really think home prices would go up forever? lol
Inventory is rising rapidly. Days on market is growing with each listing. Price reductions are everywhere. Foreclosures are rising rapidly.
Who really believes that this is going to end well for the homeowners out there? Especially those who are already spread thin with sticky inflation only getting worse. 😅
The trillion dollar homes crowd is really entertaining to watch as their perceived equity evaporates before their eyes. Have fun chasing this crash to the bottom
Home prices have been going up. Look at figures going back 100 years and you'll find a couple dips...but overall homes are more expensive today. That is called inflation.
@@tour80these “dips” you speak of are exactly what we are talking about. If you look at the data as you yourself suggests….you’ll notice we are in 3x dip potential. We’ve never had a pandemic like this-not in the last 100 years-and NEVER with total economic shut down!
@@LockedUpLarry Take a look at the Median home price in 2014 ($275,000) and add 4% each year through 2025. You get a Median price of about $420k. You're down from the highs in 2022 so this is the dip you want. Look around the world though, US has some of the most affordable real estate around and when you factor in Jobs, it's not even close.
@ I’m good! I live in the south, brother! Our median was way lower than that. Google says 110k. And to my main point…. this complete spread is unprecedented. Even in the 08’ “crash” there were areas not affected by the bubble and then pop.
@ even if you adjust for inflation….we are in uncharted waters throughout so many areas of our economy: debt (obvious one), unrealized bank losses, personal consumer debt (not to be confused with national debt), home price to wage gap, MBS holdings since 2008’s Fannie and Freddie conservatorship laws…. I could go on. No point though.
💎🤛Diamond hands!💎👊
🦍🦾Apes Strong!🦍🦾
HODL! Inventory only go up! 🏡🚀🌕