Prices lag behind especially with rent. You can’t really change rent every month or day, same with grocery prices. Stuff happens usually at an annual rate. Deflation is a slow process of people buying less causing an individual dollar to have much more worth. This rescinding of money we spend makes it more hard to make money as companies or brands. Slowly this will force companies to pull back prices leading to deflation.
Both can be true sadly. The price of needs can go up a lot while high end goods can because 1/2 the price making everything look better for people in reality it isn’t the case. Just rich people got discounts on the toys they can buy.
You either participate in this corrupt illogical greedy circus or get completely thrown out of society, what are you gonna do, move to Ukraine or Thailand? One is no longer an option... Trust me I believed in being out of the system too, but that will get more difficult.
หลายเดือนก่อน
Have you considered becoming a candidate of choice.
I moved to the UK, that was expensive too, so then moved to Russia. Back in the UK at the moment, trying to sell one remaining apartment. Can't wait to get back to Russia.
@@MnemonicCarrierI got laid off last week, I returned everything what I bought last month in Amazon and started using food bank, as soon as I get my US passport I am going to return to Russia where my cost of living $500/month!!! Jerome Powell must be in a prison!
@@pedros1 Ah man, sorry to hear it! A couple of my close friends back in the States got laid off too - they were working in IT. One of them has applied for over 500 jobs, hasn't even got an interview yet. Its been 8 months now, he's gonna have to move back in with his parents as he burnt through his savings (mostly on rent). A friend in Germany told me things are pretty grim there too. Anyway, take care, hope you find a new job soon!
When the US only added 114K (revised down to 90K) permanent FT jobs in July and Australia added 58K, with 14x the population, you know you're in trouble.
We have not entered into deflation yet lmao lol. Lowering of interest rates means a recession and inflation. Government spending is too high to cause deflation lol. That's not how economic works lol. If they lessing the monetary surplus aka take liquidity out of circulation then yes. Dropping interest rates means they will going back to quantitative easing(printing money) meaning putting money into the economy to stimulate growth. Excess money supply is directly tied to inflation. The more money in circulation than less purchasing power you. Like if everyone has gold ,gold would be worthless. If everyone has dollars, then that means there are more dollars in circulation than people actually need. He is wrong We will entee into deflation with the assets bubbles pop like in China's housing market. China is experiencing deflation. When the housing bubble pops because no one meets the financial requirements to buy a house or car then we have deflation.
@@Trapped42 it's funny because it's very simplistic economic that's why it's 🤣🤣🤣. I don't understand how people slave over a job everyday for money and haven't woken up or taught themselves how money works lol. That why it's funny 🤣🤣🤣. Y'all have no clue the events about to unfold.
Considering the shaky economy, I'm keen to know best, how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and sometimes earn up to $160K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q4 2024.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Melissa Terri Swayne turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
This is a silly comment: deflation means high unemployment, which means high social unrest, which means rationing, means total misery. High prices do not cause so much misery, so no deflation with lower employment is a total.disaster, and the democrats are leading the US straight into it!
In my opinion we have 2 paths before us: Slowing *real* economy with *INflation* Knock-ons being lower employment & ever increasing prices [a.k.a. Stagflation] (only beneficial for wealthy asset holders) Slowing *real* economy with *DEflation* Knock-ons being lower employment but *DEcreasing* prices (bad for those with assets Good in the long run for the vast majority of the population) The latter seems overwhelmingly preferable to the vast majority of us Millenials & zoomers who can't afford to then think about the American dream thanks to this wildly overinflated economy
The problem in Japan for the second half of the century was inflation, not deflation. They experienced stagflation for decades, which has hurt Japanese consumers.
The problem with the later is you can only lower rates so much. Japan has had nearly zero interest rate for decades and struggled because of it. With inflation there are tools the fed has to control it somewhat
We have not entered into deflation yet lmao lol. Lowering of interest rates means a recession and inflation. Government spending is too high to cause deflation lol. That's not how economic works lol. If they lessing the monetary surplus aka take liquidity out of circulation then yes. Dropping interest rates means they will going back to quantitative easing(printing money) meaning putting money into the economy to stimulate growth. Excess money supply is directly tied to inflation. The more money in circulation than less purchasing power you. Like if everyone has gold ,gold would be worthless. If everyone has dollars, then that means there are more dollars in circulation than people actually need. He is wrong We will entee into deflation with the assets bubbles pop like in China's housing market. China is experiencing deflation. When the housing bubble pops because no one meets the financial requirements to buy a house or car then we have deflation.
A lot of people think inflation is high prices, not increase of prices, so you'll get a lot of complaints about "inflation" for ages after the major inflation ends.
@SashaYanshin food in my state is up minimum of 100% for everything from prices 3 years ago. And we've essentially had no job growth in the same period when you look at just citizens. The complaints will not stop for many years.
Increase of prices is a result of diluted value. Meaning, increasing prices is a lagging indicator of inflation. Inflation itself is increasing money supply and credit availability. It's a whole macroeconomic thing and is nonsensical to go through pricing sectors and baskets and say inflation occurred in one and not in another. Inflation either occurred or didn't occur in the whole economy.
@@ExaltedDuckand it is STILL occurring. How this man can put in his thumbnail that the US has deflation is absolutely beyond me. Especially as we continue to pay for programs and the government continues to add to the debt
@@veejohn9681 These idiots really believe that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing. Their doing it by design. Their bringing in a new system. And the power to inflate is the Feds weapon of choice. The Fed is cutting rates in 5 days. And Both Presidential candidates are calling for a weaker dollar and lower rates, despite that rates are going down already anyway. And it's inflation that will decimate the middle class. This videos stats are so deceptive. Watch Gregory Mannarino videos. He tells it like it is.and his info is legit.
The deflation is a natural adjustment in the market. Prices are lowering to meet what is affordable for people. Prices rise too high. There's no point selling a widget for 2 units at a 50% margin when people can only afford 1 per unit. There's growth. Then there's greed.
@@wallace-bv4rl Yeah, but i wrote this message only a few seconds into watching the video. Time is a bugger. You weren't to know that i wrote this before he started talking. Thank you for your input. I am slightly more wiser after our interaction.
Lmao, I come here to laugh at Sasha believing the figures that are reported by the government. Gregory Mannarino for the US, and Maneco64 for UK. All the others are constantly repeating the nonsense that inflation has gone down or 'gone negative'. Remember, the numbers go up non stop, because someone somewhere is still creating debt. I laugh at Sasha saying that he doesn't know why the media doesn't report on it, and everyone can see the media is bought and paid for, they run damage control. Sasha is part of that.
All I know is this, stock market goes up I get fired to help boost a great quarter report into stellar. Stock market goes down and they immediatly cut me to massage a bad quarter report, but maybe house prices fall to a point I can buy or maybe things get cheaper as they chase customers to come back. I honestly barely care I get fired regardless
Deflation is a good thing here. It means that overinflated prices are being forced to drop. We were in a price bubble for a while. The bubble had to give at some point.
Great info! Next time when you record be sure to match the shutter with the flicker of the lights.Try changing the shutter form 1/50 to 1/60 and the flicker will dissapear.
Deflation isnt bad, it’s what the world needs. The cost of basic goods has increased >20% over 4 year period and we’re all feeling it. I understand the consequences of deflation too, but the impact of inflation is more severe.
its not price deflation hes referring to but demand deflation. that means the prices do not reflect demand, thats what deflation means. it never means that food will be priced lower. "but demand = price" sure if the currency you use isn't constantly debasing. "but you can lock up some of that money velocity" not really.
Federal government spending and the FEDs manipulation of the dollar and interest rates are hurting the average citizen. They're trying for a soft landing to help keep the banking, insurance, and huge business and medical sectors from suffering, but it's making the everyday joe suffer most.
@@_F8. inflationi s a stealth tax, to reply "whether they tax it back or not" just shows how completely inept and reliant people are on the system, they are agent Smith's of the system.
Only if they're spending beyond the productive capacity of the economy to absorb it. As the US has some level of unemployment, they are not at that point yet. Blaming inflation on public spending is neoliberal horseshit.
The issue is too much consolidation by corporations. They have near monopolies and are killing themselves by forcing higher prices instead of innovation
Salaries have not really increased, no wonder that people can't pay stuff any more. This is a pure effect of the offer and demand mechanics. Look at retailers like DG, they are getting slapped. Rather than playing on the rates, salaries should increase.
Dear Sasha, I appreciate your clear analysis with data. I remember somewhere around last year, you thought the US is actually getting better when every one was panicking. But now it's getting worse. What happened? Is it because that the FED has been doing things wrong (too late to act)? When did the turning point happen?
Egg-cellent video! You really cracked open the topic of deflation, and I’m scrambled thinking about all the impacts. Your analysis was no yolk - truly hard-boiled facts. Thanks for laying it all out so clearly! 😂
Deflation is bad because while thing may be cheaper, you could lose your job. Mate... Companies were already cutting people to maximize their profits. It's just going to be more of the same. It doesn't matter how the economy is doing. The best way to make short-term gains is to cut staff.
Except when prices go up, wages go up, albeit a lot less, but wages rarely go down in the opposite scenario. You just get fired, or (if you're lucky) your employer is optimistic, and you're asked to work fewer hours until things improve.
One of the reasons oil and gas is down is because the US has been producing massive quantities of it over recent years. I don't think falling prices in that sector is a bad thing because it means Americans get to take advantage of an abundance of energy, something we can only dream of in the UK.
@@connormcqueen3633@connormcqueen3633 i agree with solar being a waste of investment in the UK but wind is definitely not a waste. But the past few governments should have been investing into nuclear and wind at the same time. Electric units could be so cheap in the UK if the government wanted it to be. Same with tidal energy.
Yes they should have cut much earlier but credit will pick up even with limited expectations of Fed movement as the bond market is noting, even with an old and slow Fed there won't be enough unemployment to stop pent up demand pushing a new housing bubble and euphoric market in 2025.
My car insurance up 20 percent HOA up 10 percent Electricity up 10 percent Gasoline up 10 percent Perhaps we have some deflation. But we have inflation in other areas taking the rest of our money
That’s how deflation works. It’s a lack of ability to partake in discretionary spending because requirements for living take up the entirety of the population’s money. This is like arguing that global warming is fake because it shows in some places still.
People are forgetting the inflation already happened. This is now future inflation. We're talking about the prices are already high. If they keep raising the prices, no one will be able to pay for anything.
From a fundamental perspective there are reasons for concern. Mortgage payments missed has just slightly increased over the last month, as has unemployment recently, and credit card usage and defaults. Consumer sentiment is down and manufacturing and purchasing data indexes have come in soft. all of that and earnings came in only okay last quarter. The US consumer isn’t spending as they have been and it seems like disposable cash is drying up a bit. There are definite signs of weakness/slowing down in the economy. In my opinion Q3 earnings will move markets significantly to the downside if they come in under expectations.
It'd be interesting to see what producer costs/inflation is in the food sector because I expect grocers to fully take advantage of a widening profit margin until someone blinks and offers a lower shelf edge to win wallets. On food sub, this is absolutely observable in my local supermarket, wrong time and the chicken has been absolutely raided while the beef and lamb aisle is still well stocked.
It comes back to the same old question: who do they expect to buy all of this stuff if they've lobbied to create an economy where you can't pay rent? It's almost like the system is structurally unsound. I wonder who could have predicted this.
One of your best Sasha and I love the description of the car with the oil light on. I would just like to add that Electric vehicles are deflationary as well because they Take less energy to go further and have little maintenance. There are huge numbers of second hand EV's on the market Dragging all prices down for second hand cars.
broooo you are awesome!!! also look out for the18th everyone! If they cut rates drastically, all the indicators will be in place to favor a drop in the markets within the next 6 month.
Deflation? Nope. I am from Canada and our consumers are much more overleveraged because we have a massive housing bubble, and mortgages renew every 5 years. We haven't even seen deflation yet, instead we have seen a massive decline of living standards instead. The high house prices are a huge drag on the economy here, even though consumers are pulling back spending, it's government spending that is keeping inflation afloat. The government debt situation is in unsustainable and the massive government spending will continue at the expense of lower living standards. So in effect by cutting rates now, you help keep asset prices stubbornly high. Who does this benefit, banks. Who does it hurt? The middle class. You may be shocked at how resilient people are, the US can handle a lot more.
For all I care food and such can go into a serious deflation. They told the prices went up due to high energy and fertilizer cost (these are linked as well). Now as the energy cost comes down prices should go down as well without harming anything right? I mean if they just took the cost increase and passed it to the consumer a cost decreased should be passed to the consumer aswell without harming any job right....RIGHT?
I'm in the Philippines also , but it seems inflation lagged here and has not seemed to stop , although maybe it's topping out. Our electric has more than doubled in the last couple years. Food up alot also.
The feds target rate of 2% is actually supposed to be 2% overtime meaning that they aren’t trying to actually just keep it pegged to 2% but that it can drop below somewhat or go above somewhat. Given the recent acceleration of inflation, it’s going to take quite a while below 2% to get us back on track to that, floating 2% target rate averaged over time.
Deflation is fantastic if you have savings. It makes almost everything cheap, not that things magically become cheaper but because of the massive Unemployment that causes the deflation. 65% of the American people have been Surviving on credit and they have reached a level where they are starting to panic sell everything that they can live without . It is a great time to buy a used car or truck or boat or motorcycle. When people get desperate you can make money at an unbelievable rate by becoming a middle man in Business transactions on sights like Facebook Marketplace. It takes money and knowledge. If you used discipline and saved money or better yet made good investments life is about to get really good. Get out of the market hold cash and use it to take advantage of the ignorance of the masses.
Any real sign of deflation and the central banks will PRINT, PRINT, PRINT. This will stoke inflation, and because they'll completely over-react, they could well bring on hyperinflation. They're already itching to print more as it is and the first to do so this time is likely to be China
i think the fed is conservative about rate cuts because we are following the 70s path of inflation and back then we got the reflation exactly at this point and it was worse than before.
"i think" the fed is not a real organization with people that should work unobserved and unfettered and is a criminal organization instead and "i think" they should be all jailed and thats "conservative".
Prices going down are not the only effect sadly. The business get squeezed, so they lower wages/sack people, which means more people are unable to buy things, so you get more deflation. It's a spiral that's probably worse than large inflation.
@@wallace-bv4rl That's the way it works. During expansions prises rise as people buy more. The Fed has engineered a recession when typically, prices decline because there is an oversupply. In the US gas prices are declining. That is actually great. It is really dizzying for people to be so frightened of declines or rises in price levels which are part of the capitalist system.
Sasha, could you please explain why it wouldn't be good for the economy that oil prices have dropped? (I understand that the drop is in itself an indication of a poor economy, but doesn't the drop help to make things that rely on fuel or energy cheaper, this making it easier to do business?)
My food bill nearly doubled in last year.
Rent up $200.
I don’t see anything deflating.
Your wallet
Groceries only up 25% since 2 months ago. Sweet cooling economy.
it's only just starting, there's 17 months of M2 reduction to be priced into the market.
Prices lag behind especially with rent. You can’t really change rent every month or day, same with grocery prices. Stuff happens usually at an annual rate. Deflation is a slow process of people buying less causing an individual dollar to have much more worth. This rescinding of money we spend makes it more hard to make money as companies or brands. Slowly this will force companies to pull back prices leading to deflation.
Both can be true sadly. The price of needs can go up a lot while high end goods can because 1/2 the price making everything look better for people in reality it isn’t the case. Just rich people got discounts on the toys they can buy.
Anyone who actually lives in the US will tell you this is BS
Prices aren't really up compared to three weeks ago. This is data comparing August to July, not August to January.
Both points can be true at the same time, who would notice an average decline of 0.1% on anything?
Wages haven't risen, that's why it still feels like inflation is still a big problem.
@@lambda653 In the sense that inflation is the reduction of all dollars' value, it's not really inflation if your wages don't go up.
It's a bull whip effect investors feel it now consumers will feel it later 5x worse
Already lost my job. Not really interested in participating in propping up this system anymore.
Me too.
But how can you survive then?
You either participate in this corrupt illogical greedy circus or get completely thrown out of society, what are you gonna do, move to Ukraine or Thailand? One is no longer an option...
Trust me I believed in being out of the system too, but that will get more difficult.
Have you considered becoming a candidate of choice.
@@bangdobrichWhy did you pick Ukraine and Thailand of all places
It needs to go into deflation. It's so expensive to live in the US, I moved to the Philippines.
I moved to the UK, that was expensive too, so then moved to Russia. Back in the UK at the moment, trying to sell one remaining apartment. Can't wait to get back to Russia.
What do you do for living in Phili?
@@MnemonicCarrierI got laid off last week, I returned everything what I bought last month in Amazon and started using food bank, as soon as I get my US passport I am going to return to Russia where my cost of living $500/month!!! Jerome Powell must be in a prison!
@@pedros1 Ah man, sorry to hear it! A couple of my close friends back in the States got laid off too - they were working in IT. One of them has applied for over 500 jobs, hasn't even got an interview yet. Its been 8 months now, he's gonna have to move back in with his parents as he burnt through his savings (mostly on rent). A friend in Germany told me things are pretty grim there too. Anyway, take care, hope you find a new job soon!
@@MnemonicCarrier Russia ? You cant wait to go back to Russia..
I hope you do a deep look into the UK. The jokes would be amazing and give the USA a bit of hope.
He doesnt care about uk, he just wants drama, the uk was already totally fucked by the conservatives
When the US only added 114K (revised down to 90K) permanent FT jobs in July and Australia added 58K, with 14x the population, you know you're in trouble.
Bezos promised humanoids would save Americans! UBI for everybody! Free housing, free food, free healthcare in 2025!
@@pedros1 TANSTAAFL
@@pedros1 Humanoids make as much sense as five legged dogs.
Australia does not have 14X the population of the US.
@@DanielBerkness Around 10x last time I checked. EDIT: Just verified...it's now ~12.5x.
Sasha, thank you for providing vital and real information that us plebs have no way of learning through listening to MSM propoganda.
except the market recovered from the crash mid morning and is now ripping higher.
@@renaissanceman5847stop sir
We have not entered into deflation yet lmao lol. Lowering of interest rates means a recession and inflation. Government spending is too high to cause deflation lol. That's not how economic works lol. If they lessing the monetary surplus aka take liquidity out of circulation then yes. Dropping interest rates means they will going back to quantitative easing(printing money) meaning putting money into the economy to stimulate growth. Excess money supply is directly tied to inflation. The more money in circulation than less purchasing power you. Like if everyone has gold ,gold would be worthless. If everyone has dollars, then that means there are more dollars in circulation than people actually need.
He is wrong
We will entee into deflation with the assets bubbles pop like in China's housing market. China is experiencing deflation. When the housing bubble pops because no one meets the financial requirements to buy a house or car then we have deflation.
Yo I don't think we have enough "lol's" in that pinky out posh ass explanation there guy
@@Trapped42 it's funny because it's very simplistic economic that's why it's 🤣🤣🤣. I don't understand how people slave over a job everyday for money and haven't woken up or taught themselves how money works lol. That why it's funny 🤣🤣🤣. Y'all have no clue the events about to unfold.
Considering the shaky economy, I'm keen to know best, how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and sometimes earn up to $160K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
thats personal, you should connect with an advisor for proper financial/investment planning, never can tell what the future holds
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q4 2024.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Melissa Terri Swayne turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
Have a look at the richest man in Babylon it tells the % to put on each
Honestly, about 15-20% deflation wouldn't hurt right now. Even if it means my real estate goes down a bit in value.
This is a silly comment: deflation means high unemployment, which means high social unrest, which means rationing, means total misery. High prices do not cause so much misery, so no deflation with lower employment is a total.disaster, and the democrats are leading the US straight into it!
I'm only disappointed that I can give you only one like.
15-20% deflation would be a lot further house drops than that.
literally two minutes ago I checked for a new video and here it is!!
😎
In my opinion we have 2 paths before us:
Slowing *real* economy with *INflation*
Knock-ons being lower employment & ever increasing prices [a.k.a. Stagflation]
(only beneficial for wealthy asset holders)
Slowing *real* economy with *DEflation*
Knock-ons being lower employment but *DEcreasing* prices
(bad for those with assets
Good in the long run for the vast majority of the population)
The latter seems overwhelmingly preferable to the vast majority of us Millenials & zoomers who can't afford to then think about the American dream thanks to this wildly overinflated economy
Guess who makes policy decisions? Hint, its not the majority of the population. The decision makers dont give a shit about you or I.
The problem in Japan for the second half of the century was inflation, not deflation. They experienced stagflation for decades, which has hurt Japanese consumers.
The problem with the later is you can only lower rates so much. Japan has had nearly zero interest rate for decades and struggled because of it. With inflation there are tools the fed has to control it somewhat
We have not entered into deflation yet lmao lol. Lowering of interest rates means a recession and inflation. Government spending is too high to cause deflation lol. That's not how economic works lol. If they lessing the monetary surplus aka take liquidity out of circulation then yes. Dropping interest rates means they will going back to quantitative easing(printing money) meaning putting money into the economy to stimulate growth. Excess money supply is directly tied to inflation. The more money in circulation than less purchasing power you. Like if everyone has gold ,gold would be worthless. If everyone has dollars, then that means there are more dollars in circulation than people actually need.
He is wrong
We will entee into deflation with the assets bubbles pop like in China's housing market. China is experiencing deflation. When the housing bubble pops because no one meets the financial requirements to buy a house or car then we have deflation.
Its not just "lower employment" in your second path. It's absolute Great Depression style bedlam
A lot of people think inflation is high prices, not increase of prices, so you'll get a lot of complaints about "inflation" for ages after the major inflation ends.
Yep - happens every time I cover this topic! 👍
@SashaYanshin food in my state is up minimum of 100% for everything from prices 3 years ago. And we've essentially had no job growth in the same period when you look at just citizens. The complaints will not stop for many years.
Increase of prices is a result of diluted value. Meaning, increasing prices is a lagging indicator of inflation. Inflation itself is increasing money supply and credit availability. It's a whole macroeconomic thing and is nonsensical to go through pricing sectors and baskets and say inflation occurred in one and not in another. Inflation either occurred or didn't occur in the whole economy.
@@ExaltedDuckand it is STILL occurring. How this man can put in his thumbnail that the US has deflation is absolutely beyond me. Especially as we continue to pay for programs and the government continues to add to the debt
@danielc-s8056 well complaining is useless. Set up your tent cities outside your politicians house. Make them fear
The Fed are not that incompetent. This is by design.
Design to do what? Collapse the economy for no particular reason?
You know they want to change the financial system to bring in CBDC's and digital ID's.
We're at another Bretton Woods moment.
To be replaced with something more powerful and controlling...start the fear, divide the people and introduce it. @@SashaYanshin
@@veejohn9681 These idiots really believe that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing. Their doing it by design. Their bringing in a new system. And the power to inflate is the Feds weapon of choice. The Fed is cutting rates in 5 days. And Both Presidential candidates are calling for a weaker dollar and lower rates, despite that rates are going down already anyway. And it's inflation that will decimate the middle class. This videos stats are so deceptive. Watch Gregory Mannarino videos. He tells it like it is.and his info is legit.
@@veejohn9681 i dont see how this is all "controlled" when there are so many random variables
The deflation is a natural adjustment in the market. Prices are lowering to meet what is affordable for people. Prices rise too high.
There's no point selling a widget for 2 units at a 50% margin when people can only afford 1 per unit.
There's growth. Then there's greed.
A rather reductive argument when you’ve presumably listened to Sasha for quite a few minutes. That is to say he addressed this
@@wallace-bv4rl Yeah, but i wrote this message only a few seconds into watching the video.
Time is a bugger. You weren't to know that i wrote this before he started talking.
Thank you for your input. I am slightly more wiser after our interaction.
This is risking becoming stagflation. The working class has been forced for decades. The correction isn't going to be quick or simple.
This guy gets it.
this is why i come here, fed mockery through metaphors and actual in depth facts.
i come back once a week to hear this fed mockery this channel is gold
Lmao, I come here to laugh at Sasha believing the figures that are reported by the government. Gregory Mannarino for the US, and Maneco64 for UK. All the others are constantly repeating the nonsense that inflation has gone down or 'gone negative'. Remember, the numbers go up non stop, because someone somewhere is still creating debt. I laugh at Sasha saying that he doesn't know why the media doesn't report on it, and everyone can see the media is bought and paid for, they run damage control. Sasha is part of that.
Nice analogy
I love your analogies. Engine oil, traffic lights braking distances… keep them coming 😂
All I know is this, stock market goes up I get fired to help boost a great quarter report into stellar. Stock market goes down and they immediatly cut me to massage a bad quarter report, but maybe house prices fall to a point I can buy or maybe things get cheaper as they chase customers to come back. I honestly barely care I get fired regardless
I want a tshirt with. Shelter is a lagging indicator😂
That’s exciting news, I’ve never experienced deflation, sounds wildly fun!
Trust me. It isn't. If you're penniless already, maybe no big deal.
Deflation is a good thing here. It means that overinflated prices are being forced to drop. We were in a price bubble for a while. The bubble had to give at some point.
Great info! Next time when you record be sure to match the shutter with the flicker of the lights.Try changing the shutter form 1/50 to 1/60 and the flicker will dissapear.
Valuable review, straightforward and to the point, thanks!
As always, a great in depth analysis into the real world. Thanks for your valued input!
👍🙏
Always a valuable persepective. Kudos.
🙏🙏
Markets back up
And?
People are going to lose even more money.
Probably because probabilities of a rate cut are going up, plus the thought that they might actually throw *two* thimbles of water on the burning car.
@@Micfri300What do you think, within the next 6 months 📉?
@@Micfri300 those struggling to buy food and pay for gas are better off in a deflationary environment, which is 90% of the people.
@chrisk7812 my 5 trades open are currently selling the canadian dollar v the yen, selling nikkei and selling euro v yen brought gold and silver.
They're not idiots. They know
Deflation isnt bad, it’s what the world needs. The cost of basic goods has increased >20% over 4 year period and we’re all feeling it. I understand the consequences of deflation too, but the impact of inflation is more severe.
its not price deflation hes referring to but demand deflation. that means the prices do not reflect demand, thats what deflation means. it never means that food will be priced lower. "but demand = price" sure if the currency you use isn't constantly debasing. "but you can lock up some of that money velocity" not really.
banging day thanks to Jensen Interceptor at nvidia. Sasha better than any economist as usual. Thanks Dude, appreciate you bothering.
Always appreciate the layman terms explanation.
Thank you!
Gas prices just dropped massively. They were $3.50 per gallon where I live last month and now its down to $2.60, almost a whole dollar cheaper.
Agree!
👍
You forgot to talk about federal government spending. All this spending by the government cause inflation too.
Federal government spending and the FEDs manipulation of the dollar and interest rates are hurting the average citizen. They're trying for a soft landing to help keep the banking, insurance, and huge business and medical sectors from suffering, but it's making the everyday joe suffer most.
Depends whether they tax it back or not.
@@_F8. inflationi s a stealth tax, to reply "whether they tax it back or not" just shows how completely inept and reliant people are on the system, they are agent Smith's of the system.
Only if they're spending beyond the productive capacity of the economy to absorb it. As the US has some level of unemployment, they are not at that point yet.
Blaming inflation on public spending is neoliberal horseshit.
The issue is too much consolidation by corporations. They have near monopolies and are killing themselves by forcing higher prices instead of innovation
Loved it! Need you to explain all of life's problems for us using those same engine oil analogies!! Most appreciated.
Salaries have not really increased, no wonder that people can't pay stuff any more. This is a pure effect of the offer and demand mechanics. Look at retailers like DG, they are getting slapped. Rather than playing on the rates, salaries should increase.
Dear Sasha, I appreciate your clear analysis with data. I remember somewhere around last year, you thought the US is actually getting better when every one was panicking. But now it's getting worse. What happened? Is it because that the FED has been doing things wrong (too late to act)? When did the turning point happen?
Thanks for the eggcelent breakdown.
Had to scramble to get it done fast.
@@SashaYanshin You didn’t crack under the pressure
Well said Sasha
👍
Egg-cellent video! You really cracked open the topic of deflation, and I’m scrambled thinking about all the impacts. Your analysis was no yolk - truly hard-boiled facts. Thanks for laying it all out so clearly! 😂
😂😂😂😂
This is eggxactly what I needed. 😅
Deflation is bad because while thing may be cheaper, you could lose your job.
Mate... Companies were already cutting people to maximize their profits. It's just going to be more of the same. It doesn't matter how the economy is doing. The best way to make short-term gains is to cut staff.
Great video, thank you Sasha
Prices go down 0.01 percent after going up almost %25 last two years so we have another 24 per cent for deflation before pushing the panic button.
Except when prices go up, wages go up, albeit a lot less, but wages rarely go down in the opposite scenario. You just get fired, or (if you're lucky) your employer is optimistic, and you're asked to work fewer hours until things improve.
That’s not really how it works. Deflation, even at a small rate, can still have significant effects on the economy.
@@chrisnuk Wages never go up at the same pace as prices. The cumulative effect over 2-3 years is devastating, and equivalent to taking a pay cut.
@oldskoolmusicnostalgia I agree my point is deflation is worse. Employers know the psychology of a pay cut is such that people completely lose morale.
Not enough kids are asking, "Where is my land?"
Eggscellent video Sasha!!
One of the reasons oil and gas is down is because the US has been producing massive quantities of it over recent years. I don't think falling prices in that sector is a bad thing because it means Americans get to take advantage of an abundance of energy, something we can only dream of in the UK.
The US is producing very little under the Biden Administration. If Trump gets in office, the US will produce FAR more oil.
If only the Tories built all those Nuclear power plants they promised when borrowing was the lowest in the BoE history lol.
@@Loundsify Indeed. Underinvestment in nuclear energy while we subsidize windmills and solar panels (in the UK lmao) is an utter disgrace.
@@connormcqueen3633@connormcqueen3633 i agree with solar being a waste of investment in the UK but wind is definitely not a waste. But the past few governments should have been investing into nuclear and wind at the same time. Electric units could be so cheap in the UK if the government wanted it to be. Same with tidal energy.
if we ignore it, it might go away...
Good evening all 🙋♂️
Love the oil analogy
Yes they should have cut much earlier but credit will pick up even with limited expectations of Fed movement as the bond market is noting, even with an old and slow Fed there won't be enough unemployment to stop pent up demand pushing a new housing bubble and euphoric market in 2025.
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Good video mate. Sound analysis with occasional, highly appropriate use of blue language.
Maybe AI is starting to bite on employment and the next figures will be the start of an exponential move..
Yes, if AI means all Indians, 100% true
Sounds great. Let me know when deflation actually happens. I won't hold my breath. Prices continue to rise.
Food inflation is going up all the time and it's not just eggs. Butter, cheese, meat, and milk are all going up too.
My car insurance up 20 percent
HOA up 10 percent
Electricity up 10 percent
Gasoline up 10 percent
Perhaps we have some deflation. But we have inflation in other areas taking the rest of our money
That’s how deflation works. It’s a lack of ability to partake in discretionary spending because requirements for living take up the entirety of the population’s money.
This is like arguing that global warming is fake because it shows in some places still.
Gas prices just dropped massively
People are forgetting the inflation already happened. This is now future inflation. We're talking about the prices are already high. If they keep raising the prices, no one will be able to pay for anything.
He's one smart cookie ... I am in total agreement ... Subscribed....
Mortgage rates in US are fixed so mortgage rates for landlords are not going up…
From a fundamental perspective there are reasons for concern. Mortgage payments missed has just slightly increased over the last month, as has unemployment recently, and credit card usage and defaults. Consumer sentiment is down and manufacturing and purchasing data indexes have come in soft. all of that and earnings came in only okay last quarter. The US consumer isn’t spending as they have been and it seems like disposable cash is drying up a bit. There are definite signs of weakness/slowing down in the economy. In my opinion Q3 earnings will move markets significantly to the downside if they come in under expectations.
Eggcellent analysis ... 👍🥚
6:05 Cash cattle prices mooo-ving lower as consumer demand soars
Hahah… I love this analogy with oil and car and Fed 👏👏
Buying power will be down for a long time still. Maybe correct steps towards fixing this.
Egg-cellent analysis
🤣
It'd be interesting to see what producer costs/inflation is in the food sector because I expect grocers to fully take advantage of a widening profit margin until someone blinks and offers a lower shelf edge to win wallets.
On food sub, this is absolutely observable in my local supermarket, wrong time and the chicken has been absolutely raided while the beef and lamb aisle is still well stocked.
eggcellent 👩🍳
It comes back to the same old question: who do they expect to buy all of this stuff if they've lobbied to create an economy where you can't pay rent? It's almost like the system is structurally unsound. I wonder who could have predicted this.
Good content
One of your best Sasha and I love the description of the car with the oil light on. I would just like to add that Electric vehicles are deflationary as well because they Take less energy to go further and have little maintenance. There are huge numbers of second hand EV's on the market Dragging all prices down for second hand cars.
broooo you are awesome!!! also look out for the18th everyone! If they cut rates drastically, all the indicators will be in place to favor a drop in the markets within the next 6 month.
Very good….and very funny 👍👍
Thank you!
Food prices will stagnate now with cats and dogs as substitutes
😂😂😂😂
Get it brotha
lol…. Ok.
Gold just hit an all time high and everything is more expensive than ever. We could use some deflation.
Please do a video on the UK economy.
We need more deflation to bring food prices down to pre-pandemic level.
Deflation? Nope. I am from Canada and our consumers are much more overleveraged because we have a massive housing bubble, and mortgages renew every 5 years. We haven't even seen deflation yet, instead we have seen a massive decline of living standards instead. The high house prices are a huge drag on the economy here, even though consumers are pulling back spending, it's government spending that is keeping inflation afloat. The government debt situation is in unsustainable and the massive government spending will continue at the expense of lower living standards. So in effect by cutting rates now, you help keep asset prices stubbornly high. Who does this benefit, banks. Who does it hurt? The middle class. You may be shocked at how resilient people are, the US can handle a lot more.
For all I care food and such can go into a serious deflation.
They told the prices went up due to high energy and fertilizer cost (these are linked as well).
Now as the energy cost comes down prices should go down as well without harming anything right?
I mean if they just took the cost increase and passed it to the consumer a cost decreased should be passed to the consumer aswell without harming any job right....RIGHT?
So the question is, who is pumping up the stock market after the plunge?
Sasha, my man, I agree, there is deflation risk. Out right deflation? I'm not so sure yet.
Sasha, truly excellent mate, kindly requesting your sage [investment] strategic "hints" re how to make/preserve wealth during all this deflation?
I'm in the Philippines also , but it seems inflation lagged here and has not seemed to stop , although maybe it's topping out. Our electric has more than doubled in the last couple years. Food up alot also.
Hi Sasha, can you make an opinion video on the German economy, or the whole of the EU? Thanks.
The feds target rate of 2% is actually supposed to be 2% overtime meaning that they aren’t trying to actually just keep it pegged to 2% but that it can drop below somewhat or go above somewhat. Given the recent acceleration of inflation, it’s going to take quite a while below 2% to get us back on track to that, floating 2% target rate averaged over time.
Eggcellent video. Thanks
Thank you.
Considering how much things went up recently, I wouldn’t call it deflation. More like stabilizing.
I remember you warned us of this months ago!
This is a good thing
Deflation is fantastic if you have savings. It makes almost everything cheap, not that things magically become cheaper but because of the massive Unemployment that causes the deflation. 65% of the American people have been Surviving on credit and they have reached a level where they are starting to panic sell everything that they can live without . It is a great time to buy a used car or truck or boat or motorcycle. When people get desperate you can make money at an unbelievable rate by becoming a middle man in Business transactions on sights like Facebook Marketplace. It takes money and knowledge. If you used discipline and saved money or better yet made good investments life is about to get really good. Get out of the market hold cash and use it to take advantage of the ignorance of the masses.
Any real sign of deflation and the central banks will PRINT, PRINT, PRINT. This will stoke inflation, and because they'll completely over-react, they could well bring on hyperinflation. They're already itching to print more as it is and the first to do so this time is likely to be China
i dont make the IRS money if i can help it. that includes precluding myself from making money but fuck the fed.
Got it ready. I'm hoping I'll be mortgage free before I'm 40.
What I found interesting is that people are selling pre bought burial plots.
Don’t worry Sasha. Deflation is just transitory, nothing to see here.
J. Powell.
Sasha is the man 🫡🙌🏽💪🏽😁
i think the fed is conservative about rate cuts because we are following the 70s path of inflation and back then we got the reflation exactly at this point and it was worse than before.
"i think" the fed is not a real organization with people that should work unobserved and unfettered and is a criminal organization instead and "i think" they should be all jailed and thats "conservative".
Do not be afraid. Deflation will make up for the inflation we endured since the corporate profiteering began after the pandemic.
Oh dear another one. Do you understand anything he’s saying or do you actively disagree. If you do disagree that’s👍 but give us something please
That’s not how it works…
Prices going down are not the only effect sadly. The business get squeezed, so they lower wages/sack people, which means more people are unable to buy things, so you get more deflation. It's a spiral that's probably worse than large inflation.
@@wallace-bv4rl That's the way it works. During expansions prises rise as people buy more. The Fed has engineered a recession when typically, prices decline because there is an oversupply. In the US gas prices are declining. That is actually great.
It is really dizzying for people to be so frightened of declines or rises in price levels which are part of the capitalist system.
Love your description of the fed's management lol
😁
Put your mattress under your money now😂or is that money under your mattress? No, the first!
Both the mattress and the money will be worthless before long
Sasha, could you please explain why it wouldn't be good for the economy that oil prices have dropped? (I understand that the drop is in itself an indication of a poor economy, but doesn't the drop help to make things that rely on fuel or energy cheaper, this making it easier to do business?)
The video you did not
know you needed
eggcellent video
OFC it went! :))
DEFLATION IS AWESOME. If any of this topic is based on Government data, then add 5%-10% on top of the numbers used.
It's not awesome if you have assets. Doesn't bother broke people too much until they lose their job and are penniless.
@@rubicon3416 If most of your assets are cash, your cash is gaining purchasing power.