Is Hyperinflation Coming?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 มิ.ย. 2024
- ➡️ economicsexplained.substack.com
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Inflation is something we more or less take for granted these days. The idea that 5 dollars today is not going to be able to buy 5 dollars worth of stuff in the future, and the fact that you used to be able to buy a family home for 10 grand, are all the result of inflation.
The idea that over time money becomes worthless and less influences a lot of decisions in out lives. Everything from retirement planning to salary negotiations take this relatively benign and constant force into account.
But it is something that should be feared.
Hyperinflation is where this slow but steady force explodes and renders money all but useless.
Since the money printers fired up in early 2020 the US has added over three trillion dollars to is m2 money supply. That’s more than a 20% increase in the total amount of money washing around in the economy in the space of around 6 months.
What’s more is that 3 trillion dollars is coming close to doubling the amount of cash in active circulation, that is the pool of cash which is actively out there been spent on good and services rather than sitting dormant in bank accounts or term deposits.
When you consider that hyperinflation is classed as a 50% increase in general prices per month it is reasonable to expect that this printing bonanza may be starting to push into dangerous territories.
Or is it?
Is hyperinflation actually something to be concerned about, in a developed nation like the USA? Or are all of these cautionary tales simply a ploy to try and get people to buy gold coins at 50% over their base value.
Well to answer this we of course as always need to loot at a few key details and answer a few key questions.
What actually is inflation? It’s weirder than you might think
Is inflation actually good or bad for the economy?
Is the money printer causing inflation right now?
And what are the best ways to protect against this harsh reality?
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Inflation bad fire good
Chrome and Firefox are giving me certificate errors when I try to go to the link for the newsletter.
Video request: overall which has helped overall economy better? Laws enacted by conservative parties, or the liberals?
IS YOUR MAILING LIST SERVER OKAY? I just tried signing up for your newsletter, and I was getting SSL problems. I tried twice. It could be something innocuous, but I can see why email addresses for your viewers would be a lucrative target for hackers-it doesn't take a lot to think of email scams that could trick people interested in finance in these interesting times, even if only 1% of people fall for them. So please check that your mailing list server is secure.
ok, so two things that I think are failed to mention in this video
1. what if we are able to produce more goods with the same amount of money? We have seen are productivity skyrocket, so one dollar should by more goods rights?
2. we have more things competing for our dollar, we had access to a more variety of goods and services, we have smartphones, TV, exotic foods, and trinkets from around the world
these are both massive deflationary forces that should be driving drown prices like crazy or causing an increase in wages, neither of those things is happening, so why? the easy anwser - consumer debt. instead of lowering prices or increasing wages, to buy more and more stuff and the same prices, people have opted for buying things through consumer debt, they buy their cars with debt, their homes, their furniture, their phones, and increasingly their groceries. consumer debt is so high because it's holding back the wave of deflation. a lot of the stimulus is not causing inflation because of this, any extra cash that goes to the consumer is going not to increasing standards of living, savings, or buying more stuff - it's going to pay off loans.
High school me would never have imagined I’d one day be listening to lectures about economics for fun.
well my economy teacher was not an ozzy
Jokes on you I am still in High School
Ditto..
Same here. It's actually quite interesting and affects us through out our entire lives so it pays to understand it
@@aayushagarwal4138 Joke's on you actually. You'll be leaving high school and entering one of the toughest economies ever
As a Zimbabwean who has seen inflation, hyperinflation, deflation and then hyperinflation all in the last 12 years , this video is emotionally triggering! Lol
Is your country one of the ones being neo-colonized by China?
Do not privatize your resources. Don't do it.
MMT = Mugabe’s Monetary Theory
God bless you. I hope you and yours receive the blessings of Christ in your life.
@Mutant Pig but do you have any filler?
If reading “money printers go brrr” is funny in memes, hearing you actually say it is hysterical
If its backed by gold then the $$$ value will go up!
the Ethiopian currency is "Birr" so its funnier to me
18:04 I keep it looped on replay
Aussie version of burrr sound so good
Kinda cringe
The stock video of the dude wondering why he is being filmed at 1:26 was hilarious!
Had not noticed, so funny lol
Last time I was this early housing was affordable
Inflation bad
1980?
😂😂😂😂
@@alexander-mauricemillamlae4567 you mean housing bubble started right. Because if the bubble has already burst the prices have dropped and became affordable
Good old boomer humor
_How to know when it's just inflation and when it's a hyperinflation?_
Take some money, put it in the bag, leave the bag out there in the street.
*Just inflation:* somebody picks up the bag, takes the money, then throws the bag away
*Hyperinflation:* somebody picks up the bag, takes the bag, then throws the money away
Great tip!
You summed up the madness of hyperinflation very well.
in hyperinflation money is still wortg lol you can buy things
william super well spotted. Good thing this was trying to make an entirely different point. Very smart sir. Your are a true Einstein:P
@@OopsFailedArt XD people complain about "to much money in circulation"
just give me those milions dude and see how i buy a house a car nice garden and "settle" myself for life, because i am smart enough to not waste milions in a lifetime lol..
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain
To be fair, he was pretty bad at math
He had some stupid quotes at times... and he changed his name to Mark Twain to evade taxes
@@brandonvillatuya9539 lol
Statistics don’t lie, but people do. I know this from experience
Thumbs up from me just because if Twain said it, it's probably so;)
My economics teacher in high school used to keep saying "The government doesn't print money! It's a recipe for disaster!" But here we are.
"teacher"
More like “ TEACH HER”
Countries are weaponizing thier currency for trade once china has amassed trillions doing it. Your teacher was teaching on old economic warfare strategies.
Leroyyyyyyy jenkinssss
Technically the gov doesn't. It just let's a private org do it and distribute it to private banks
To rephrase your question in the words of legends:
"Money printer go brrr....?"
Yes, Money printer go brrr....!
@@EconomicsExplained Money printer go *brrr* ..... &
@@EconomicsExplained Money printer go brrrrr
@@EconomicsExplained Haha Money printer go brrrrrrr
I thought BER. Beyond Economical Repair
“A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.”
― Mark Twain
I think i've seen this posted on every single ee vid..
"The earth belongs to the people. I believe in the gospel of the single tax."
Also Mark Twain, smart and witty fellow.
An umbrella is also a good thing to have on a hot sunny day.
Well....the sun can cause cancer so the umbrella is pretty useful
That isn't his umbrella though...Deposits are liabilities.
When I was a little boy in the 90's my grandpa acted like if I saved a dime then I'd be a millionaire now... LOL!!!
I’m pretty sure he was trying to teach you the fundamentals of saving
I mean with compound interest you’d probably have a couple dollars 😂
If you'd put that dime into assets like Bitcoin, he was right!
yes, but a dime every day in form of bitcoin in 2009, ...the coin is so trash that the price is basically 0
@@Freshman24727
Unfortunately his fundamentals were based on a system that makes sense.
“We have this crazy global economy that is based on debt and inflation.”
Also, “There are these crazy people that want to balance budgets and have a balanced monetary policy in a world of runaway inflation.”
Damm fiscal conservatives wanting to ruin people's good times with restrictive monetary policy 🤣
**Hyperinflation is coming**
Me: "And my teacher said I'd never be a millionaire! Suck on it!"
Peter Schiff said there will be a 35% decrease in the value of the dollar throughout the year 2021.
lol
@USA 2 MEXICO the value of the dollar has fallen that amount since 2000. it's not unthinkable.
A friend of mine said, "One day we're gonna drive $100,000 cars and live in $1m homes, trouble is they're gonna look just like the cars and homes we have now."
@USA 2 MEXICOOK then, I'll go into detail of how it has already been happening for the last 250 years. A bimetallic monetary standard was formalized in 1792 with the Mint Act. It set the gold to silver price ratio at 15:1, deeming gold to be valued at $19.39/oz. The price of gold was $19.39 for 1 ounce in 1792. Today, gold is $1915/oz. That means that since the dollar was created on April 2, 1792, it has now lost 99% of it's purchasing power in comparison to gold, which is what the US dollar used to be back by when it was originally created. Anything else?
Sorry the video is a little bit late tonight guys. Hopefully it is worth the wait :)
It’s actually pretty early for Friday
Its worth the wait till 12 am no worries mate
Bit late = decent time in US
na mate ; thanks a lot
This was a careful and nice explanation!
10/10 would worth again
Inflation is the expansion of the money supply, and prices going up is the result of more money chasing few goods and drives up the price. So inflation is NOT prices going up, that is just the result.
Thank you for taking the time to explain this, so that I don't have to.
Yes, this video is taking people on the journey through the eyes of central banks and their twisted definitions of facts.
@Ksenzu No, exactly the opposite, it's important to get that right.
@Ksenzu Well my friend, you need to go a little deeper and beyond Britannica, they have it wrong too. Too many revisionists and Keynesians are running around spreading this misinformation. Many times purposely to further their way of thinking about monetary issues and policies.
@Ksenzu NO Sir, you just need to ignore the new changed definition of governments to serve their purpose and look at the original classic definition.
schiffgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/inflation-def-768x445.png
I feel bad for saying this but I never come away from an EE video feeling like I actually understand anything more than I did before I watched it.
Pretty complex stuff, you have to take notes and break it down like you're in a class.
I'm not an economist, but: When I buy something, the money goes from me to the store, and the item goes from the store to me. The goods move in the opposite direction of the money. All of the discussions I've heard about inflation seem to treat inflation as happening uniformly across the entire economy. But, the freshly printed money usually isn't distributed uniformly across the economy, but is instead dumped into specific sectors. It will eventually spread out until it's uniform across the economy. But, since goods and money move in the opposite directions, that means the goods get concentrated as the money spreads out. The end result is both a debased currency and an increased concentration of society's real wealth among those who were lucky enough to be the recipients of the new money (analogous to executives who get extra stock to make sure that their ownership isn't diluted). Inflation doesn't just devalue the currency, it also redistributes the real wealth of society to those who are favored by the man with the money printer. This is a knock-on effect that I don't think is generally discussed enough in the public conversation about inflation.
You talking about black people?
@@susanmcallister4912 ?????? what
@@AnEnderNon I apologize. * Afro-Americans
@@susanmcallister4912 no he's talking about JPM WF and BOA and thier share holders
The Bureau of Labor Statistics be like: "Dont skew the CPI, spend your money like nobody's watching."
Heart goes out to the man sitting sadly on the curb at 17:32. I hope he is alright.
Whats weird is that we are always talking about this mental construct of what inflation is supposed to be and how to measure it etc. But when we talk about it we rarly talk about the reality that most people experience. Who here can say that their wage has increased each year according to the rate of inflation? What do I care how you call it, or what a few economists are debating about if the reality is that a large percent of the population is working at maximum capacity (working hours) but can afford less and less with each year?
@False I like to work tough...
Inflation is a tax on savings that allow the government to spend more money. That is all it is.
... he just said that low unemployment was bad... I don't care if I am paying more for labor because I will be making more, and raw resources would be dropping in value. Besides that it would just make imported goods cheaper, which is what the free trade was supposed to help with. The average people everywhere wins.
@False Eh..yes, it does, when you wrote "Nowadays the wife has to enter the workforce for the family to survive, not out of being a "free independent woman"… but out of necessity." and I just stated I do like to work. But dont worry that I got clear your position regarding taxes.
@False Ah...Ok. Fair point.; just thought you were the typical "boomer" that complains how things were better in the past -in this case how women dont actually want to work and the majority would rather be housewives but due to the current economy.
Still, I dont understand why you came with such annoyed tone. at the end of your comment. Did that touch your feelings somehow?
You know, it could had just been a misunderstanding from me as in this case was...
Invest into inflation, it always goes up.
Those Zimbabweans know what's up
Stonks
jokes aside, you may be onto something. if you can plan for it you can make money off inflation.
*George Soros hyperventilating*
@Steven Moore Mansa Musa was living proof of that.
Reminder that most economists have no idea what they're talking about.
Yeah they brought us neoliberalism and look where that's gotten us
As opposed to... who?
@@screenarts what has it gotten us
@@frederickdoofman5020 The last 40 years. You do know what neoliberalism is right?
None of the kainzean economists anyway
"hyperinflation = game over for the economy"
Argentina: ha! i can do this forever.
*introduces a new currency for the 4th time in like 50 years.
AH YES
it is all coming together
Kronk intensifies
EE: Is hyperinflation coming?
Me, who lives in Argentina: Always has been.
Is it still bad over there bro? I hope not
@@BennieVredestein it's about to get worse . Because the currency is controlled by the central bank .The dolar net reserves are negative.And to solve that problem they convert all the dollars that get into Argentina to pesos at a range of 80 to 1 ,much lower than the real value of 150 pesos per dólar. So after the conversion they use your dollars to supply the increasing demand.
@vertex2100 well, we have a burble in the dollar value, so the people buy it because "it will never go down"
@vertex2100 We buy foreign currency, because it can only go up. It's also not advisable to deposit big quantities of USD in banks because our country has a history of using money from deposits in order to finance the central bank's deficit. In 2002 bank savings were forcibly converted to government bonds denominated in Pesos (regardless of the original currency), which was devaluating rapidly.
As a result, most USD in Argentina is saved in cash today, wether in safes in banks or at homes. We don't trust the government, basically.
Cars tend to go up in price, as well, so they're a good way to save value. In other words, a new car depreciates at a slower rate than the peso does. Mainly because car prices are set in USD and then converted to peso when selling.
@@saniks5070 Net liquid dolar reserves are negative, net reserves are still over 3000 mill, albeit perhaps not for long
i randomly stumbled upon this channel but i love the delivery, great job!
@Economics Explained, you have just picked up a new subscriber due to your excellent explanation of inflation, hyper-inflation, and some of its variants. I thank you and look forward to viewing your other videos. "Two opposable fingers up"!
I find it amusing how professional the "Is the money printer causing inflation" card looks at 2:47
Lol
I wish I lived during a time when buying a house was something normal people could do.
Edit: Some of you should grow an empathy bone.
@@_patrickst actually wages have stagnated while productivity has increased increased
@@_patrickst If you compare average housing cost to average income, that just isn't true, at least in major Australian and US cities, especially Sydney and San Francisco. For my parents, an average house cost slightly less than an average annual salary. Now it's several times an average annual salary. Nationally, it's still over twice as much, so moving to a cheaper state doesn't really solve the problem, either. This is similarly true in the majority of the US… Seattle, Austin, New York, Portland, LA, etc. www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-australian-wages-house-prices-2018-3
and why would buying a house; if you could do it; not benefit the economy; more than permanent austerity ; service cuts and low wages ; for the lower waged anyway.
But taxes were exponentially lower back then. In 1966 my taxes were covered by 1 week of wages. Today they exceed my annual ss income.
basspig May I inquire were you lived to get such low taxes?
9:20 You know the system is fucked when a reduction of consumption is seen as a bad thing. The foundation of the entire world economic system is based on debt financing. A sad tale.
I mean if you buy stuff with money you dont have thats a more cultural problem, and I agree Im more for small government
Are you taking about consumption, or the rate of consumption? If the former, you are wrong, unless you want society to return to a pre-industrial time.
@@nowhereman6540 yeah... i assume he means rate of consumption.
All economies are based on debt. Money is debt.
@@letobabel4519What I mean is the economy is based on _debts growing indefinitely._ I.e., keep borrowing _more_ to generate growth.
Awesome!!! Thanks for sharing!!
(In a near 100% employment situation): "People only leave jobs for a pay rise" - not even close to being true in the real world. People move jobs for a whole host of reasons, of which pay is only but one variable. Shitty bosses, badly ran companies, change of address, change of industry, new qualifications, new job role, better non-salary perks, the list is endless....
Also no mention of the effect of population changes to inflation either...
I only move jobs when the new employer offers better working conditions. I work from home 2 days a week permanently and can cycle to all my site meetings. Money isnt worth anything unless it can buy you a better life.
yeah that part didn't make sense to me, it also ignored the fact that people retire and graduate every year, so there is always a supply of new graduates, it's not a closed system
Try to change job in a 30% unemployment economy because of a "shitty boss" then we'll talk...
Was it a generalization? Yes. But it still holds true and half of your other reasons also have a hidden or open monetary perks. These "change of industry, new qualifications, new job role, better non-salary perks." all have some upward salary trend. Salary will also be the most important reason to move jobs but certainly not the only reason. None of which changes his argument.
It's weird that so many of the "bad for the economy arguments" really only seem to map out to "good for employees and bad for businesses." Like unemployment being low. In demand employees leave/join companies for a lot more reasons than money.
Yeah, it's just what hurts the elite and rich, not what actually hurts the population.
Nice video and something I was searching.
2 years later, it would be a great time for a new video on this topic...
*sees video posted a second ago* Me: oh yeah time to procrastinate
We understand you have many options for your prcrastination and we would like to thank you for choosing to procrastinate with Economics Explained! We hope to see you again soon.
One of my favorite ways to pass the day while I learn!
Great, now we all can become trillionaires and weave baskets out of money! Always wanted a Benjamin Franklin backpack!
Always look on the brightside right?
The assumption that you can only hire away employees with a raise in their salary is completely wrong, and is why companies struggle with turnover - they lack understanding of motivational theory and why people work. The idea that full employment (typically about 3.5% unemployment) is bad is a myth propagated by business interests that see any unemployment figures below 7-8% as bad - it gives too much power to labour.
Good luck trying to convince people otherwise. The cult of work is worst than the cult of religion.
Finally proud to see someone from Australia ❤️ love this video so easy to understand.
“Don't think money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.”
― Voltaire
I hope I live to see the day when people stop counting the value of things in money and start counting value in terms of *calories.*
Economics predates our current models of thermodynamics - there's no such thing as perpetual motion, ergo there's no such thing as perpetual growth.
The key to a stable and prosperous economy is meeting everyone's needs while also reducing costs and eliminating overproduction.
It's what every living thing on the planet already does.
Voltaire never said that
Haha 😂🤣
@@capitainebonhomme1609 He probably didn't.
Everything is about money, except money.
Money is about power.
-Gina Reignhart
Oh but I wish I had a real garden to tend sometimes
Last time I was this early, a dollar saved in the mattress was indeed a dollar saved.
Today it's not about return ON capital. Today it is about return OF capital.
What does this mean?
incredible, one of the best material
It kinda sucks how things are getting more expensive but we aren't earning more
Who’s “we”? I am. My employees are. Our vendors are.
@@codycast most people cant afford things
Invest in things that will become more expensive over time
@@OwenPrescott -- That's like telling a drowning man to "swim harder". In order to invest, you have to be able to accumulate an initial nest egg of capiital. More than 15% of workers in the U.S. are stuck working part-time jobs. About 10% of the work force were working 2 jobs before the pandemic.
It's really, really _hard_ to work on your investment portfolio when you're working 60+ hours per week just to keep a roof over your head and food on the table.
And before you start - if there's not enough captial to make inveatments, there's not enough capital to buy a house or go to college. It's not about skill or work ethic - it's about capable people not having inherited family wealth.
If you want a system that rewards merit, make health care, housing and education human rights - life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
william super I wouldn’t say “most”. Our biggest company challenge is still finding good people who will work. We don’t even require any special skills. Just work hard. Honest. Able to communicate. $60k to start. And can’t find people.
I saw my name as one of the Patrons! Awesome! Thanks again Economics Explained! You are doing good work!
I love your videos man. They're as clear as such subjects can be (LOL)... and they're rather fun !
You have a gift for explaining economic concepts in a way that people can grasp.
I just finished watching a meme of the inflation of Venezuela seconds ago and I get recommended this
Enjoy your stay here!
The Google Gods are onto you!
The invisible hand of The Algorithm at work.
I live in lebanon, hyperinflation is a thing since January.
I hope you're doing okay. I'm sure the big boom that happened there didn't help the situation
@@scratchsoft2347 wrong
How much dollar today?
kint 3am fakker inno we should ask EE for a lebanon video
Don’t worry. Only America can give you justice.
'inflation is something take for granted these days' laughs in greek
'deflation is worse than inflation' cries in greek
Great video and love hearing the home twang on the www.
However, noticed it on myself when I moved OS, that I didn't pronounce "properly" properly. You're in the same boat ;)
So me being unemployed is helping my country 😀
Yessssss
@@McRemmyBaby sadly I am not helping my country anymore 🥲😂
@@tariqueanwarmulla 😢
Love the vids keep up the work
Thanks mate will be sure you :)
Great update Andy
Thk for this video liked n subd
9:35: "Why buy a Toyota Camry this year if that same money could buy a BMW next year?"
**Scotty Kilmer has entered the chat.**
Scotty: "don't ever buy a BMW they are endless money pits"
In that example it would be better to buy the Camry and invest the difference.
Lol
Scotty is awesome
" This videoes sponsor is you" meanwhile i get four commercials in this video 🤣
The problem is when prices increase faster than wages
Look at the poor bastards on centrelink, even disability pension is insufficient to pay the rent outside of government housing, now imagine living in private rental on less than $300 per week (for all household expenses)
If inflation is bad but deflation is worse, why not keep inflation at 0?
When will we see "Economics of Economics Explained"?
he made it already
@@vilimcvenk1323 where?
Reminds me of the Good Place: of course, the opposite is also true, and precedes to make a whole new argument.
Haha well the good place was certainly entertaining.
Knocking off a zero hurts more but keeps everyone in sight of what's going on.
I'm a new sub to your channel so I'm still looking to see if this was already answered in a different video of yours, but I'm really curious to know how economics are impacted if consumer staples like basic food, water, housing and clothing were no longer scarce and everyone had enough somehow (hypothetically, just for the sake of thinking about this.) Would the consumption of above-basic goods and luxury goods keep things stable? Would there be a net benefit from eliminating scarcity of these things in regards to the economy? Anyway, keep up the great work on this channel!!
Can you do a video "What if there was no inflation or deflation"
What kind of benefits and disadvantages would such an economy have.
Uhh is that even possible, like wouldnt the economy just break? Il not an economist so i could be wrong but the economy would just grind to a halt
any precise value like 10 or 3 or 0 is impossible to achieve in the first place
even in full command economy it will be a "paper value" that only exists in reports
It would be incredibly difficult to get 0% inflation, but the consistancy might make life simpler, definitely an interesting concept.
Stability. And far less government power.
I'm studying economics so this is actually something I know instead of the wild speculation I have been seeing in this comment section. No inflation or deflation would mean the economy itself is in completely steady state. To achieve this, the amount of people operating within the economic system would have to remain constant, as would the currency in circulation, as would the amount of producers operating within the system. Even something as simple as population growth can entirely destabilize this equation, meaning it's never realistically possible to achieve in the real world unless human immortality becomes a thing.
An economy is "alive" in a way, it is always in a constant state of flux because it involves the exchange of goods and currency... well across the entire globe at this point. There are far too many actors involved for it to ever remain truly stable.
- Everyone: Money printer go brrrr
- Me in Venezuela: Isn't that the default state?
Since this situation seems to persist, I'm guessing that little of the economy is actually carried out in Bolivars. It doesn't seem like Venezuela is going through the uninterrupted exponential growth that Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany went through. I'm curious, fill me in!
How do you store cash in Venezuela?
@@richdobbs6595 Actually I don't know how much of the economy goes in actual Dollars I'm guessing a lot, but even if the majority of us still use Bolivars its just to facilitate the trade but prices are set in Dollars, we have the government's official exchange rate and the not so official varius exchange rates of the black market, the saddest part of it all is that much of the economy it's "Dolarized" but the vast majority of the people don't have access to Dollars or even some meaningful equivalent in Bolivars, there are the cryptocurrencies and services like airtm, paypal or payoneer too they facilitate trade and for those who can enables some sort of savings anything is better than have mountains of Bolivars
@@wigglebot2368 if you're lucky enough to keep some of the Dollars in circulation that's a way but that's a little minority, usually via cryptocurrencies o services like paypal, payoneer or airtm, but most people just barely make enough to get by so there isn't much going to savings any way
@@wigglebot2368 Dump trucks?...
great video, thanks for putting the information in a clear and enjoyable video 👍👍 I see a lot of taxation coming, also I think inflation numbers are skewed however I dont want to come off as some major conspiracy person.
Really good, TY
When your ADHD kicks in and you're just staring endlessly at b roll footage
😂
YES
I hate that.. I dont think I have ADHD though lol
@@megapet777 Google "ADHD test" and find out, it's quick and free.
I just watched your video on the history of global banking, and I’m in shock. Please talk more about the 2nd half of that video and about Dr. Richard Werner!
So interesting, thank you...
Thank you for this video
hyperinflation is already her-
money printer go *brrrrrrr*
Ten years ago, Arby's used to have special offers of five sandwiches for five dollars. Today, the equivalent special deal is two sandwiches for six dollars. That sounds like prices have tripled. But if you look at the official measure of inflation, which in the US is not based on consumer purchases, you'll see that it comes nowhere near the actual increase in price. My grocery spending has roughly doubled in the last three years. Not reflected in the official inflation rate. I say, bring on the inflation - inflation is good for debtors and bad for creditors. In the current circumstances, almost anything that is bad for creditors is good for the economy.
Also, what increase in unemployment payments? Not many people actually got that extra money, and a lot of people were even denied the ordinary level of unemployment. I know three people who lost their jobs, all qualified for unemployment and the extra money, only one actually got unemployment at all and he didn't get the extra amount. The "stimulus" was just another big corporate welfare program, designed to cripple the economy. It's looking like starvation will break into the top ten causes of death in the US this year, and maybe top three next year. It was 44th in 2017, according to the CDC (it's called malnutrition there).
I'm curious how automation will effect these systems and if traditional responses to the fluctuation of indicators will keep the system in balance.
stock has a relatively high short interest. there recent earnings report was way better than expected. I think they may also see high short term gains.
How do you reposition your stocks to be more profitable, do you manually pick them?
11:10 Would you perhaps make video on the minimum wage? Seeing as economists are usually against price controls, and a minimum wage is basically a price control on labor, I would be interested in your take. Milton Friedman had a lot to say about that, too ;)
Milton Friedman was an evil little dwarf who perpetuated an economic scam.
Mixed economies work better than traditional capitalism, you just need to compare us to Scandinavia, funny thing is that Scandinavian countries apply restrictions to everything except the minimum wage
Thanks for another intersting video. However, I feel you missed two important points related to inflation. First, the issue of sticky wages. The second, how inflation benefits those that that have access to credit or assets which increase in value as the money supply increases. Both tend to increase wealth inequality..
The stock market has suffered the impact of the virus and electoral debates and has affected major holding companies. However, market analyst see a new favorable shift coming in the market. Taking advantage of the situation and buying shares of global brands at minimum prices would be best.
The stock market is appreciating with various stocks like, gold, , bentoil, AMZN, SHLL, NVR, PLNHF13. I've gotten a 120% increase this year. Actually great thanks to Paul my fund manager and analyst.
It is absolute B. S. to say nobody is going to leave their work unless they get a pay increase . People leave employement for a variety of reasons including wanting reduced working hours or more suitable work hours, wanting to relocate for family reasons , relocating for health reasons, relocating for lifestyle reasons and many more factors.
If there is hyperinflation then they better start bartering again, who wants a goat?
I will give you 2 pounds of nutmeg for yer goat.
Who do u think I am, the Dutch?
@@jaydonly2336 I got a hardy nephew who can work in a mine, he's your for the goat if you throw in travel expenses
For your goat, I offer a magical bean.
5 cases of toilet paper for your goat.
The thing with inflation; it is a form of entropy. If going from inflationary to deflationary will cause problems, so will going from high inflation to low inflation. The rate of inflation is a ratchet which does not naturally decrease. For this reason, I am concerned that once inflation does catch up (and it must; the money pool is increased and the amount of goods and services produced are down) that the inflation rate will never be able to return to a healthy level.
50% inflation per month? Probably not beyond one month, anyway. But we could wind up trapped in the 10% per year range, and that would likely force stagflation.
Ultimately, I do not find the arguments against deflationary policies convincing. Sure, going from inflation to deflation causes problems, but fundamentally it just encourages different behavior. An inflationary economy encourages borrowing, deflationary encourages saving. I prefer deflationary because saving is a fundamentally healthier norm behavior than borrowing, but either of them will have problems if you exceed the 5% per year range.
surely governments will increase taxes when things get back to normal to remove excess money from circulation?
@@hadynharris494 Yeah, but you can't expect them to increase taxes in the right places so it will still disproportionatly affect the poor in a big way.
It's funny because none of the money is backed by anything, just slave notes. Sounds smart though. I hope you were well educated on the scam.
Life is a circus, the rich are the carnies, and you rubes are the suckers born every minute.
It's true but deflation and increased savings severely slows down the economy. Look at Japan. The Japanese Government have had to spend huge amounts to prop up the economy due to the fall in domestic demand
Wow. Almost all of that was treacherously wrong.
Phenomenal channel!
Thank you!
The original definition of Inflation is the expansion of money supply, while the increase of price levels are its result. The definition has been changed to benefit the government, as the expansion of the money supply is the government falt, the overall increase of price levels are the capitalism fault.
Socialize the losses, privatize the gains, how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
How did you come to these conclusions?
Some study, look for the old definition of inflation, you will be able to find on old dictionaries if you access to those. From that point on you will need some research, if I'm not mistaken Rothbard wrote something about it, but the objective behind changing the definition was never explicit, nor could it be, with some common sense you will reach it.
@@brunorohden7413 wow, I didn't know anything about it. We are getting played by the system.
@@brunorohden7413 That's not an old definition. That is the definition of inflation.
But people often confuse lower value of money with higher prices of products, since they tend to be inversely proportional to each other.
Was going to say that the inflation over the last while seems to be more in the capital markets than the ground level economy.
Deflation has always been said to be bad because it is very bad if you own money, but it's very positive if you have money.
Now ask yourselve who has the more debt in a country and who has the more savings.
Yep, the goverment has the more debt and the ordinary people has the more savings so, why do you think inflation is said to be good? and deflation is said to be bad?
Thanks!
I still don't understand why "wage inflation" is so bad (15:31) according to conventional wisdom. Worker productivity rose over the past several decades, so shouldn't we expect/promote a proportional amount of wage inflation?
Maybe I'm just a center-left armchair economist, but it seems like the fiscal policies which "defend against" wage inflation exacerbate income and wealth inequality.
Stock price inflation is good. House asset inflation is good. Education inflation is acceptable, because we need an educated workforce. Healthcare inflation can't be argued against or you want to people to die. Wage inflation is apparently "real inflation".
I woud also prefer more in deph explanation or real world example. More money (to a point) might lead to less workhours, less burnout, greater satisfaction, better productivity and more spending (simmilar to german or french economy) building a fundation for strong middle class that coud afford paying a little more for produced goods.
It’s all about comparisons if you inflate all wages costs equally you haven’t actually payed people more value you just increased the number
@@richardallen1555 Not necessarily! As the video discusses, the "Consumer Price Index" is the main metric used to measure the harmful effects of inflation.
As far as I know, there's no law which says that CPI and wage inflation MUST be highly correlated. Most goods are price-sensitive, they won't get more expensive just because consumers have more money.
If I understand correctly, the typical argument goes: "Well if wages rise then companies will have to spend more on labor, so they will be FORCED to raise prices." But large companies have saved record amounts of liquid assets and spent record amounts on unnecessary buybacks in recent years. So I don't think this is a legitimate argument either.
@@hweigel528 "Most goods are price sensitive, they won't get more expensive just because consumers have more money". That's where you may be wrong. Most goods are price sensitive, and that's why they get more expensive as consumers have more money.
If consumers have more money, then the value of the money vs their time and comfort decreases. They would want more goods since they have better value to price ratio now( essentially like buying an item on sale). And since most productions have very little flexibility in volume of goods produced, the output of goods remains almost constant ( unless there is a technology breakthrough that enables better production). This drives the demand up driving the prices up.
It definitely won't cancel out the effect of increase in wages if the goods output remains constant or increasing, but if output is decreasing like now, it may.
It feels like there are 3 main take aways:
1: In an ideal world, the relative value of currency would be constant, but since this is realistically impossible, having it trend slightly so that currency is worthless is easier to handle than the inverse.
2: A 100% competitive employment rate is unsustainable as it creates a feedback loop of having to outbid everyone else. (Possible solution? Have a non competitive base line, IE Government sponsored construction that feeds everything else)
3: As long as money keeps moving, the printer can keep going. If everyone was given a million dollars, and goods/services supply was able to satisfy the consumption of that million dollars, no harm done, but if the supply of goods and services can not meet the new demand, costs go up and the value of that million goes down.
1. Maybe not. Constant money sounds like the gold standard. Most economists think leaving the gold standard was a good move. Here's a video trying to be balanced in showing both sides of the argument: th-cam.com/video/FbDZ0ObRXfE/w-d-xo.html
3. This has nothing to do with your comment, but here's a good video on the money printer (and its effect on stock prices) if you can think deeply enough to understand it. I wasn't able to, but maybe you'll do better: th-cam.com/video/K3lP3BhvnSo/w-d-xo.html. Ben Felix has the best investment TH-cam channel I know of, BTW.
Nice video, but I would have mentioned how house prices (the main cost for households) isn’t included in the CPI, also how the substitution of good works in estimating inflation and how this can downplay inflation, and finally how technological forces, especially going forward, can easily contribute to price deflation. Thoughts? Cheers.
"All we can do in the meantime is hope that this future is managed carefully, and make sure that we plan around this new reality"
In other words, we're doomed
Trekonomics. No money is the future. We don't need it.
I thought it said 4 months ago, then I realised it was 4 minutes lol
As somebody with a bit of exposure to Austrian economics, I do not endorse this message. I like the AE definition of inflation better: Inflation is a general increase in the money supply. CPI is a kludgy estimate of the effect of inflation for a particular part of society. In particular, it is subject to Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." For those folks that will eventually retire, it is idiotic to ignore the increase of share prices that is driven by increasing the money supply. For somebody actually paying for things, it is pretty clear that CPI is a poor government joke. Food, healthcare, education, housing... They're all gamed in the CPI.
That said, since the purpose of the current inflation is to prevent the collapse of stock prices, it seems unlikely that it will be lead to lead to hyperinflation. Instead, it will be managed to lead to a controlled increase of prices in the stock market, for the benefit of a shrinking number of folks that meaningfully participate in the stock market, with the net effect of collecting in assets from victims to the beneficiaries. Hyperinflation won't happen in the USA as long as the system keeps at least 10 carrier groups functional.
"Inflation is an increase in the money supply" is a useless definition. We have a term for an increase in the money supply. It's called an increase in the money supply. It doesn't need another name.
I’m here, 21 months in the future, to answer that last question:
INFLATION! Inflation won out. We defs did not increase taxes.
And, what a super prescient video. It was a little uncanny to listen to you describe what was going to happen in the future (lots of job openings putting an upward pressure on wages; stagflation; it would have to be inflation or tax increases…) You were spot-freakin’-on. 😳
Fascinating!
5:34 I think you meant "Heisenberg's" consumer price index haha
"Money printer go BURRRRR!"
😁🤭😂
I also wish you had addressed the problem of reserve currency dumps that come along with a lack of faith in a currency.
When there's deflation people are still going to buy what they need like food, utilities, gas. They're not going to wait to buy those things they need.
Exactly. And nowadays (with inflation), people don't hoard food, utilities and gas fearing they will be more expensive the next year. Small inflation and deflation doesn't make people care about that.
That thing about deflation being so terrible is bullshit, we have seen no country dying of deflation, on the opposite there are plenty of inflation catastrophic exemples.
@Chaotikmind bc deflation is less likely to happen
@@bonbi16 That's kind of a moot argument, since gov always push for an inflationary system...
@@bonbi16 And btw a lot of economist disagree with that