Do NFL GMs Know What They're Doing? Ryen Russillo Answers | The QB Room
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ต.ค. 2023
- Ryen Russillo, host of the The Ryen Russillo podcast by The Ringer, joins us to dive deep into quarterback conversation. We discuss three main topics:
1. Why is the quarterback position so hard for NFL teams to figure out?
2. Success rate of first round draft picks at their second stop (it's shockingly bad)
3. The trend of NFL teams adding a first or second year quarterback who could be great but we don’t really know vs. older quarterbacks who might not be flashy names but are proven and serviceable
Nobody knows more about ball, but assumes they know less. He’s spent nearly every fall Saturday and Sunday since 2008 taking notes in front of a TV - not because he wanted a take, but because he wanted to better understand. A lot of people can come up with the most outlandish thing to say. Ryen would never say it, but he often has the smartest thing to say.
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Tanahill looked good at times in Miami. Also, Goff is different than most retread QBs. He won 3 playoff games, won an NFC championship game on the road in the load Superdome, and played in a superbowl. Very different than a guy who gets 30+ starts and does nothing and goes somewhere else.
Tannehill played very well in Miami. He had Adam Gase as a coach, no weapons, and had to play against Patriots with Brady when they were good. He had Miami on the verge to the playoffs before he got hurt in one year and his numbers were never bad. I think with him you saw a good QB elevating his team but just had nothing to work with.
Of all positions in sports, QB is most dependent on coaching. Not just individual development but in scheme and play design that maximizes a QBs strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.
I just want to quickly say, the Catch-22 of drafting College players by trading up, giving away two, three first round picks along with players and supplementary picks, then you get Chase Young for a 3rd rd pick, Joshua Dobbs for a 6th? So yes, I think GMs are crazy and don't know what they are doing.
There are a reason those teams are picking number one...but expect the qb to come in and save everything..tough situations
Exactly
Great show. Enjoyed listening and looking forward to catching up. Keep it up
Great stuff!!!
I think Ryan's ending conclusion is so spot on.
Any time I want to be humbled about QB drafting I think back when I thought Joey Harrington was a risk free selection for franchise QB.
Thanks for watching! Fascinating conversation. This position is TOUGH to figure out...
Joey Harrington got ruined. That dude got sacked more than anyone in history to begin his career. They did him zero favors.
@@johnnyp5216 Sounds familiar somehow.
Poor Sam (Howell).
did the lins have the talent around joey for his success
@johnnyp5216 he had 17 sacks in his first 28 starts lol. That is just blatantly untrue. He had the lowest sack percentage in the league his first two seasons
I think it's too many GM's are trying to make a narrative reality: you NEED a "franchise" QB to win
I also think it really started when Aaron Rogers started playing really good midway through the season a couple of years ago. After that, the 'you need a franchise QB' narrative started. It wasn't long after that when Eli Manning said, 'you can't spell elite without Eli.'
However, the structure/habits of NFL organizations are, in my opinion, opposed to 'drafting' a franchise QB.
When a team gets a new coach, there's already a built in excuse for not winning: he doesn't have _his_ guy/QB. This also gives a rationalization for not working with/developing the young QB still on the roster who was drafted by the previous coach.
Therefore, the first year isn't really held against a head coach. The second year for the coach is the first year for the newly drafted QB (his guy). If the team isn't successful it's because of the young QB and fans look forward to the next season for progress.
The second year for the QB is the third year for the coach.
If the team isn't successful again, the blame is placed on the coach. It's the third year for the coach and it's been three consecutive years of 'bad' football - someone has to be blamed.
Too often the coach is fired around the 3rd/4th season which is the 2nd/3rd seasons for _his_ QB.
If/when the coach is fired the whole process starts over again.
A new coach says the 4th year QB drafted by the previous coach isn't 'his guy'...
The solution, I think, is to build up a solid _team_ and plug any half way decent QB in there. The Broncos had a _team_ good enough to win a playoff game with Tim Tebow and win a Super Bowl with an upgrade at the QB position...a better example, not using Peyton Manning, would be the Ray Lewis Ravens who were a consistent playoff team and won a Super Bowl with a QB they cut the next year.
What did the Ravens do when they finally got their 'franchise' QB?
As good as Andrew Luck was, his team wasn't and he paid the price physically which caused him to retire.
It just seems to make more sense to build a solid team on both sides of the ball and the QB should be the very last piece to the puzzle instead of the current model which tries to find a QB first.
Excellent analysis.. been suggesting this very thing or something similar for years.. always felt too much emphasis was made on quarterback which is quite possibly the most overpaid and overvalued position in sports.. quarterbacks, unless you're Peyton, do as little as any position.. everything is dictated..and this strategy of plugging in a clown like kyler murray or justin fields isn't viable or even smart
That's what the Falcons are doing but the placeholder QB is so bad it has exposed the weakness of the HC, the playcalling, and possibly even the scheme, thus he may get fired before selecting a first round prospect.
Caleb Williams is the ultimate shiny object that these guys swoon for every time. Saw him play. He never. Never. Never drops back and goes through his reads. If his first guy isn't open he takes off and uses incredible athleticism to make plays. That will not translate for very long in the NFL.
I like how Russillo said that Mark Sanchez failed yet he has been the most successful Jets QB since Namath.
Right lol didn’t me play in two afc championships?
Chad Pennington was WAY better than mark Sanchez.
Mark Sanchez was a passenger on a bus…. And the bus was Louis
Just found this channel. Fantastic content. I have said to my friends the same thing about Mahomes being drafted by K.C.. John Schneider loved him too. JS also loved Josh Allen, went to his Pro Day, and the Russell Wilson drama started (aided by his new wife at the time).
This whole notion that quarterbacks is the most important position has messed up the development process. Teams no longer focus on building an identity and adding players that fit it. The only thing they want to do is draft a good QB and hope he turns the franchise around. It’s so stupid.
And then have absolutely zero patience in doing so. Like these guys were saying, its by year 3 IF that, that these teams are deciding we picked the wrong guy. As opposed to trying to build a legit team around that quarterback & giving him the tools & confidence to succeed. If the guy is cycling thru OCs, HCs, bum offensive lines, no weapons etc how the hell is he going to be that guy you drafted him to be. Draft your guy and build a team around him while hes still on his rookie scale contract. By the time that contract is up you'll know if hes got it or not, because I think thats quite enough time to build a competent team around him for him succeed with. If you're not doing that, thats a problem with you as an owner/GM. Not saying these guys suck at their jobs and that im any better as an armchair coach, and like Ryen said the job is just that hard. But sports in general has completely lost the concept of patience. Teams, and even the fans as well. The fans are even worse honestly.
Give this man a contract! Seriously....watch all-22 and you'll get this opinion fast.
It’s so stupid to take dart throws at the position that determines probably at least 80% of a team’s success?
You can’t just develop anyone.
Welcome to pro sports 2023
It’s hard to judge QB play in college because the huge difference in talent levels on teams. The QBs on the Alabama and Georgia have all the oline talent and receiver talent to make them look good.
Backup QB conversation....#2. Cooper Rush #3. Jarrett Stidham
The fact that 1st string QBs are the only guys getting reps during the week of practice is the reason there is no development from the backups that aren't fortunate enough to have WR's that will stay late and put in extra work.
Even then, it's not a true simulation setting.
this is the kind of stuff i like awesome job guys
Glad you enjoyed it!
My first marker for drafting a QB is they have to have started at least 2 full seasons in college. Very few QBs who only started 1 season in college have panned out in the NFL.
The Lions went and got Teddy Two Gloves Bridgewater because they knew they had a squad and Nate Sudfeld wasn't good enough to not lose games if he had to start.
In OSU’s defense, nobody that was an Ohio state fan thought JT Barrett or Cardale Jones were NFL qb’s. Proven by the fact that Barrett wasn’t drafted or was drafted in like the 6 or 7th round. And Cardale was drafted because of Jamarcus Russell syndrome, he is big, strong, and can throw the ball an absolute country mile.
The last three are different. I have to say that Justin Firlds falls into the team messed it up category. How much more dysfunctional/weapons-needy could a pro team be? Chicago is a young qb’s nightmare right now. Someone is gonna get a quality player next year if the bears keep losing.
The narrative that OSU doesn't produce good qb show how ignorant some of these critics are. They haven't been producing pro ready qb's until Justin Fields. No idea why would Washington draft Haskins that high, the dude only played 1 season. I'm guessing the only reason they didn't throw USC's qb history under the bus because the guy's Carson's brother, but USC have absolutely produced some duds at the qb position, and now everybody is hyping up Caleb William, when the guy can't find ways to beat Utah or Notre Dame.
Let's goo🔥🔥🔥
The value of a great OL coach is important, to a rookie QB success. An OC can design the best plays to create “open” receivers but the OL has to have the knowledge to execute the pass pro (or run scheme, when called).
Also, the NFL game is played more “between the ears” than it is “athleticism.” Can you execute the fundamentals of the position at a high consistency rate.
Slurp more drinks, that's good video
Backups I would take Cooper Rush
Looks more teams are now allocating players now more than theyre actually free for all drafting.
Young stud wr access is going to young qb to the point vet qb are now chasing them to trail in behind a struggling young qb to play with those weapons
A few mid round QBs who came out this year I think have the tools to develop into starters. I really liked Hooker, DTR n University of Houston QB Clayton Tune coming out. Tune is an athletic accurate mobile QB with a plus arm perfect for a WCO, he has a ton to like about his game but playing behind one of the best QBs in football in Kyler Murray he likely won’t see many snaps. I 100% agree snaps is the biggest issue to developing mid/late round QBs in the NFL as most of these guys never play.
Arizonas new OC Drew Petzing looks to be a really bright creative offensive mind though I can’t wait to see what he does with Murray and Tune. I could see AZ ending up trading Tune in a few years for a pick if things go right for n he shows the ability to start.
Unfortunately, despite what GMs and coaches say, the NFL is not a developmental league.
You build a program by building an O-line and D-line. Then you get the toys.
Goff and Geno
Don't forget the retread god Jim Plunkett
Jim McMahon got the Vikings to the playoffs in 93
Jordan's older brother had a couple lives, terrible injury luck but he was good.
Goff and Geno as well is what I meant
Minshew is the best backup
Maybe, jusy maybe, going to a good organization gives them a better shot to succeed. But bad teams drafting good QBs doesn't always put a bandaid over the bigger issue.
As a GB fan, ours doesn’t
I'm surprised the unforced errors GMs seem to make. For example, if the draft is hit or miss, then try to amass more picks and you'll on average end up with more good players. Every GM knows today not to overpay for the RB on their second or third contract, but many were really slow to realize that over the ladt 15 years. Defense is about having a huge rush, you need multiple world class pass rushers. Some GMs will grossly overpay for ILB eventhough the data shows being good at these positions don't mean much.
I think you’re leaning to far into pff for defenses. If the nfl was a moneyball league it would work. You need play makers on defense no matter where they are. Pass rushers happen to be where a lot of play makers are.
@JJ-zr6fu nope, there is a hyarchy to positions. The NFL is very analytics driven. Every team suscripes to PFF and has a large analytics deparment. But, the supremacy of the pass rush goes beyond even analytics. In the early 2000s the Gians beat the patriots twice in SBs with teams who shouldn't even have been there. The main reason was a huge pass rush. They even played backup wide receivers as DBs at times they were so thin at the position.... and everybody who really knows football knows ILB aren't worth anything.... just like giving a 1000 carry rb a big second conteact.... if you don't understand this... you should just stick to drinking beer and watch the games.
They also go for need way too much. For example a team picking in the early to late 20's might have a pretty good defensive backfield and a potentially elite CB will fall to them in the draft and instead of reinforcing the strength they'll take a "need" who is noticeably less talented.
It's always been my opinion that the draft was for taking elite talent no matter where it is on the field (within being reasonable, having 3 elite RB's doesn't do much for a team) but then you use FA to fill in the gaps. Of course there are considerations like elite LTs and CBs don't make it to free agency often so that needs to be taken into account.
I truly believe that most GMs have absolutely no idea what they are doing
The secret sauce to the eagles isnt just howie roseman it is player development. An underreported part of Doug Petersons dismissal was a lack of player development same for chip. Reid and Sirianni is all about development its why Stoutland is the highest paid assistant coach.
Jordan be honest is Dave Raggone a good qb coach cause I feel he isn't helping Ridder much. I mean he failed Trubiskey even though I didn't think Trubiskey was that good coming out of college.
Well, the reason teams aren’t trading their quarterbacks to contenders is simple: if the team needed a quarterback, they wouldn’t be a contender…except in the rare injury cases.
Lions did Stafford a solid
Lost the plot when you started talking about Stidham 😭 tier list of QB’s that will depress your fanbase on route to a 4 win season. Bruce Gradkowski award
What the hell does he mean Deshaun Watson wasn't a starter for the Texans until they benched Nathan Peterman at halftime? You must be getting your players and teams mixed up. 😂
Kyle hand-picked Hoyer, Beathard, and Lance (TOP 5 DRAFT BUST EVER), and none played well under him. What is Ryen talking about?
I feel Ridder got screwed having to back up Marriota who sucks and he quit on the team when he got benched and Ridder didn't have a quality pro QB to learn from.
Wasn't Purdy a 3?
That about QB context stands true with fans. I'm a Bears fan and they are what they are blah blah, we do have a pretty good ability to know what a bad QB looks like lol. They always came off as a team that doesn't know what it's looking for, but it usually knows it when they do see it, they just never use it right.
As good as Andrew Luck was, the colts was not good spot for him, they were never all that good with arguably the best QB prospect of all time. That should tell you something
If QB is the most important position and Andrew Luck was an elite prospect that should have guaranteed a super bowl. But It didn’t.
So now we see Bryce Young struggling and wonder why?
The Texans offense was decent with David Mills last year. You could say he was about as good as Alex Smith was before Mahomes. Good but just not good enough.
It’s makes scouting easier when you actually see what works and what doesn’t vs guessing and hoping for the best. CJ Stroud is balling because he can do everything Davis Mills can but better. The Texans knew what they needed because they knew what they had.
Now look at the panthers last year, they had Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfeild which were both 1st round picks. To think those two first round picks can’t play so let’s get another one is pure insanity.
The panthers have no identity. No receivers, defense is ok but needs more playmakers, o-line is average at best. There were other needs on this team. If the panthers keep simply just keep Moore, draft Jalen carter, and just went with Andy Dalton this would be best team in the division. I understand hindsight is 20/20 but those moves I just stated would have been less work than what they actually did. Bryce Young is not that bad. Just like baker was not that bad and Sam Darnold is not that bad. The Panthers are that bad for not having any sense of direction and hoping another Superman comes to save the day.
The NBA has guaranteed contracts so owners have to be patient. Except for rare cases the NFL just moves on with no concern and no financial liability.
Its where you get drafted
The success of Josh Allen has really made me rethink my criticism of NFL GMs. That pick just seemed so ridiculous at the time but he is now one of the best players in the league. As I remember that pick was mocked by many members of the media.
No it didn't. You just drink the hivemind goo. Allen was CLEARLY the best qb prospect in his class to anyone with a trained eye.
@@FantasySportsZen stop it lol no one said that. The best minds in the league didn’t think that. The best GMS didn’t think that. Scouts didn’t think that. When the bills drafted him I was furious too. Noone understood why. Beane and Sean saw something we didn’t.
@@phil-f716They saw something YOU didn't... I was ecstatic. Don't tell me, you must've been the "We drafted the wrong Josh" guys?
Don’t listen to the media. Allen was an easy choice.
That’s why he went first overall, oh wait
Why aren’t they doing pods every week ? This show would kill, if they did
Because Kyle is an active NFL player I would assume
We've put out an episode every week since August 23rd this season and every week throughout last season! Give some of the past ones a look. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield were awesome!
I swear Kyle resembles and EVEN SOUNDS LIKE JOSH… I’m not convinced that they are not related… lol it’s really so close when he talks if you aren’t looking it sounds like Josh!! Identical. Mind blown over here
😂
LOL. Greg Ogden, Greg Ogden is a guy that like that he's going to be INJURED on the day that he was drafted. Apparently there something wrong with his legs anf if teams did not do their due diligence, they'll draft him #1. It is the Sam Bowie situation all over again.
The lifespan/patience is just not there in NFL….luck also factors in a lot….u basically have to succeed right away and then there is Danny Dimes who makes tons of money for no real reason….tell me it’s not luck related haha
Yahhh players just have to have so much perseverance … because you just literally have to “wait your turn”
The reason it's not luck related is it's actually based on the literal person, johnny Manziel will burn out a locker room because there's no work ethic there's no commitment, no sacrifice, no accountability. contrast it with Daniel jones who has no ego, full effort, deals with crap all the time from his teammates mistakes and never complains, listen to josh Allen, every shortcoming, every week any struggles, mistakes, he takes the bullet immediately, contrast that with what got Zach Wilson benched two years in. the press conference where he's a mechanical doofus for 10 seconds. contrast that to why do we love Jalen hurts so much, and why do NFL players swear by him? full buy in. but none of these guys are perfect, Tom brady didn't start for 3 years, Aaron Rodgers didn't start for 4 years, Jamarcus Russell didn't last in the league for 3 years. Peyton manning, Eli manning, Alex smith, Trevor Lawrence have terrible rookie years, end up with great 10 year careers, does it tell you anything? ur personality and work ethic buy you time to develop.
It’s not just lifespan/patience about players. A guy gets a 3 year shot but during that time has 2 head coaches, 3 OCs, and 3 QB coaches. How the fuck is he supposed to develop?
@@the_real_ch3 Big facts
Your situation .. outside of EXTREME talent dictates all
At least that’s what it seems
Russillo speculated on why Sanchez failed... how is several playoff wins and 2 AFC championahip games a failure?
He was a huge failure. If he went into next years draft as the 22 year old version of himself he'd be picked on the 3rd day.
@Aaron-kj8dv no he wouldn't have been picked in the late rnds. Maybe he falls to the third pick.
He started for several years. He was on the jets that weren't very good, and he got them to the AFC championship 2 times. That's not a bust... not even close. He just wasn't as good as the crazy high expectations... very different than a bust.
Perhaps trade for some backup qbs who have a few years of watching a starter. Have 6 qb on the roster and alll season try then out. In addition to first round qb picks within a year or two you should be able to 'fight' the bad odds and find someone u can build around. I would be fine if my team, GB, was doing this. The games are shit anyways.
Patrick Mahomes sat for a year. Aaron Rodgers sat for 3 yrs. In regards to reps...
Mahomes also has Andy Reid, who is probably the best NFL coach of the last 25 years when it comes to getting the most out of his QB. He’s won with everyone from Mahomes and McNabb to Vick and Garcia.
drafting qbs is about team situations
Stroud was always the pick at 1. Young is too small.
The better question is does Ryen know how to trim facial hair?
Its crazy that these owners built their wealth from being good business men but the second you involve sports into the business a majority of them act completely clueless its insane 😂
Owners and GMs are not the same
When it comes to selecting QB's, obviously not.
The only way they are going to get better at it is to come up with some way of accurately testing the skills required to be an NFL QB. They've got some of them like size and arm strength and a college track record to go on. But those are clearly not enough.
To be a success in the NFL these days, there is no time to have the youngster develop. The young QB pretty much has to be ready made. No sitting on the bench trying to drink it all in for a few years or no getting thrown out there and having a few years to figure it out on the fly.
If there were a minor league that a lot of these guys could play in, you would see a lot of those guys who are NFL busts become NFL successes as they learn what to look for and to overcome whatever shortcomings they have. But, there isn't.
Some of the qualities that a youngster needs now when he comes into the NFL;
The ability to process info spatially is important.
The ability to process info quickly is important.
The ability to pick up and identify visual cues quickly is important
The ability to make quick accurate decisions is important
Excellent hand eye coordination is important
The ability to set your body up quickly in order to throw accurately is important
The ability to throw accurately, to anticipate where to throw to a moving target and peripheral vision is important.
The ability for your brain to process at a faster rate than normal human brains.
And then you wonder why GMs get it so wrong.
The NFL needs a minor league and it's embarrassing that they haven't already recognized this.
What embarassing is your comment. The most violent American sport with the shortest career life span - should have a minor league? The sport where guys pretty much cool their brains for cash should have a minor league? Smh
People think the NFL is a good business because they male so much money but they're actually a VERY poorly run business with a product that people can't get enough of.
They need a minor league and an international presence but all they do is fly to England or Mexico. I lived in Brazil and everyone knew Tom Brady because of Giselle. The NFL had such a golden opportunity to grow business there and never did anything.
Also the owners are so hyper conservative they won't invest in anything if they don't have to. That's why they implemented a salary cap floor where teams have to spend a certain amount or be fined.
They have one. It's called college.
Palmer trains QBs. Can't stop talking about the poor play around them and the situation. What else would u assume he would blame lol. He gets PAID to promote these QBs
Youd think there'd be a giant crop of QBs with how many "QB gurus" like this guy are out there. Its funny going back and looking at elite 11 lists. 99.9% of those kids ended up fizzling out. None of these football scouting services have a clue what they're looking at.
Completion % on tough throws and 3rd down conversion rate. All the other stuff is secondary.
A bunch of peripheral vision tests too. If your peripheral sucks you aint gonna make it
Why is a former NFL QB asking Russilo about QB’s
Hey let's keep drafting qbs & not build an oline.. oh dang another bust
The NFL is not a developmental league.
Get Palmer to name a single bust that he worked with. What is the point of these conversations? Used car salesman vibes.
Holy shit certainly a take saying patrick is the greatest thrower hes ever seen... Maybe im high but iv seen josh and Justin in person and the pure throwing ability is better. Great discussion though. Ps kyle get your rushing average up😜
Yea this drives me insane, they act like Mahomes is Nolan Ryan. He can be the best quarterback in the league without having the biggest arm
LEVIS
1 game against Atlanta. Come on.
"Do NFL GMs Know What They're Doing? "
They do know what they are doing. but they are not geniuses (like most workers in any given job).
The fact that NFL GMs are drafting QBs and paying them before they win a Super Bowl shows me that they are not as smart as some people may think them to be.
When you look at the numbers for the past 23 years, Peyton Manning was the ONLY QB who needed 5 years or more, as the starter for the team that drafted him, to win a Super Bowl.
All the other QBs who won where (1) drafted and started for less than 5 years before they won or (2) free agent QBs who came in to a "Super Bowl or bust" situation.
If you know these numbers, then why are you paying QBs who haven't won anything?
LOL
Shannahan is so successful with QBs that he's in year 7 he doesn't have a solid starting QB....
Purdy was their first Pro-bowl QB since Jeff Garcia and was top 3 in most QB stats.
People wouldn’t believe the political b.s. that goes on in these front offices. Most of these guys are terrible at their jobs and spend their time being political so that when they get fired they can find a new job easily with another team. It’s pathetic.
Because any football above high school level is entertainment, not sport. Talent is only as relevant as it would be in a Harlem globetrotters game. You played in the league, you know it’s scripted.
Josh Allen and Quenton Nelson were right there and Cleveland took Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward instead. Now ask yourself if NFL GM’s know what they’re doing.