Probabilistic Forecasts & Sequential Decision-Making (with Warren Powell) - Ep 163

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ธ.ค. 2024
  • Full transcript available: www.lokad.com/...
    Summary
    In a recent LokadTV interview, Conor Doherty, Joannes Vermorel, and guest Warren Powell discussed probabilistic forecasts and decision making in supply chains. Warren Powell, a retired Princeton professor and Chief Innovation Officer at Optimal Dynamics, shared his career journey and insights on planning under uncertainty. Joannes Vermorel, Lokad's CEO, discussed his transition from deterministic methods to probabilistic forecasting, criticizing academia's lack of real-world application. Both agreed on the superiority of probabilistic forecasting, despite its complexity and businesses' struggle to apply it. The conversation highlighted the need for a broader perspective and a unified approach to dealing with uncertainty in decision-making.
    00:00:00: Introduction of guests
    00:01:27: Warren's role at Optimal Dynamics and book
    00:03:06: Challenges and forecasting in truckload trucking
    00:04:31: Warren's paper and understanding of uncertainty
    00:06:41: Joannes' journey and success in software
    00:08:12: Embracing uncertainty and academic perspective on supply chain
    00:09:39: Sequential decisions and difficulty of industry collaboration
    00:11:13: Probabilistic vs deterministic forecasting
    00:13:27: Metrics for probabilistic forecasts and understanding difficulties
    00:15:28: Importance of forecast coverage and sharp forecasts
    00:17:09: Lokad's journey with probabilistic forecasts and challenges
    00:19:15: Difficulty of uncertainty problems and lack of unified community
    00:21:05: Decisions and uncertainty in math programming
    00:23:03: Diverse lab experiences and ADP book applications
    00:25:07: Need for toolbox in supply chain and transition to new approach
    00:27:35: Deterministic optimization and cost function approximation
    00:29:57: Google Maps as a look ahead example
    00:31:51: Stochastic look ahead and value function approximations
    00:33:21: Joannes' perspective on decision-making and problem statement
    00:35:29: Importance of correct state, transition function, and cost function
    00:37:28: Considering problem dimensionality and large-scale problems
    00:39:15: Fragility of solutions and network of supermarkets comparison
    00:41:16: Approach to problem-solving and writing a supply chain analytics book
    00:43:44: Simplicity in model design and different types of uncertainty
    00:45:13: Importance of swift iteration and real-world constraints
    00:47:51: Importance of computational tractability and development of Graphics tool
    00:50:27: Role of instrumentation in optimization and industry challenges
    00:53:11: Working with carriers and critique of academic approach
    00:55:23: Joannes' journey from forecasting to decision-making
    00:58:28: Difficulty of data access and dealing with future forecasting
    01:00:32: Importance of considering major disruptions and accepting pessimistic models
    01:02:45: Variability in supply chain and fashion industry
    01:04:43: Renewing products annually and forecasting new products
    01:06:27: Importance of modeling uncertainty and critique of corporate rules
    01:08:16: Warren's approach to stochastic optimization and managing inventory
    01:09:56: Planning for contingencies and decision-making under uncertainty
    01:11:39: Importance of real-time dispatching in trucking and right load selection
    01:13:27: Challenges in decision making under uncertainty and issues with educated individuals
    01:15:45: Excel's limitations in dealing with uncertainty and CEOs' understanding
    01:19:30: Limitations of supply chain books and importance of user-friendly tools
    01:21:46: Lokad's educational initiatives and creating relevant data sets
    01:25:01: Three essential questions for problem-solving and developing decision categories
    01:27:48: Non-quantitative MBA's challenge and companies burying decisions under workflows
    01:30:26: Price of simplicity and sequential learning as a decision-making tool
    01:32:33: Teaching the concept of aiming higher and challenges of rigid policies
    01:34:34: Difficulty of comprehending exploration concept and importance of active learning
    01:37:41: Differences between trucking and supply chain and size of truckload business
    01:40:04: Book's title, purpose, teaching style, and five elements of modeling
    01:42:39: Praise for Optimal Dynamics, Lokad, and sharing academic ideas
    01:43:22: Closing remarks and thanks
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    Check out our website: www.lokad.com/
    Follow us on LinkedIn: / lokad
    Read our blog: blog.lokad.com/
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ความคิดเห็น • 4

  • @bluebabboon
    @bluebabboon 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    An absolute marvel of discussion. Looking forward to more with powell and Joannes

    • @Lokad
      @Lokad  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Glad you liked it! Appreciate the feedback :)

  • @joshuabradshaw1647
    @joshuabradshaw1647 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Wow, inspiring, I cannot wait to read some of his books now (I’ll start with the tiny URL) and see how I can apply it to my company’s problems.

    • @Lokad
      @Lokad  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Hey Josh! Glad you enjoyed it.
      Conor