SHOULD YOU BUNT? Run Expectancy Matrix
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ต.ค. 2024
- Today we cover a widely discussed topic: the bunt. It's been a part of the game for forever, but in an age driven by data does it still belong? To answer this question we turn to the Run Expectancy Matrix. Statistically when is it practical to bunt and when is it not?
Subscribe, it's free! bit.ly/2H0rbsm
Check Out The Blog -
www.simplesabermetrics.com
Further Reading:
Run Expectancy Example (MUST READ!) - batflipsandner...
RE24 - towardsdatasci...
More Bombs Less Bunts - www.offthebenc....
Base Hit Bunts - www.espn.com/m...
Other Videos:
Pitch Design Tutorial - • IN-DEPTH PITCH DESIGN ...
Pitching Technology - • PLAYER DEVELOPMENT TOO...
Intro to Tunneling - • PITCH TUNNELING: Why H...
Spin Axis Explained - • SPIN AXIS EXPLAINED: A...
What is Gyrospin? - • EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO...
Why do Pitches Move? - • PITCH MOVEMENT EXPLAIN...
Socials:
Twitter: @SimpleSaberBSB
Instagram: @jstone30113
![[ TEASER ] เงาะป่า - วงL.กฮ. | TMG RECORD](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/M4ObdFfcPww/mqdefault.jpg)
Just because a sacrifice bunt lowers the average runs expected, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not a good idea. If the batter is extremely below average at getting on base, but good at sacrifice bunts, it could be the correct move even if it lowers the expected runs simply because going for a hit would be even more damaging
Great video. Bunting and stealing bases are probably the 2 areas in baseball that have been used less frequently in today's game.
They sure are, but that doesn’t mean there are situations in which they can still be valuable! Expect a video on SB’s sometime soon 😎
Awesome Video. I recently looked into this and added probability of each outcome of plate appearances and sac bunts can increase run expectancy sometimes. It mostly happened with guys with like 85 wRC+ if 130 guys were on deck. It would be beneficial there. I also took into account the prob of sac bunting, errors, out at the new base etc..
That’s an excellent point! Love hearing how some of the ideas shared in the videos can be taken a step further. Thanks for the extra perspective!
Excellent video but, as I've seen in most other bunt analysts, it doesn't address the reality that not every bunt achieves its purpose. You may pop up or bunt straight to the fielder, or even put yourself in an unfavorable count by fouling. When you add this to the already low effectiveness of the bunt, it makes it an even worst strategy.
Actually your “bad bunt” scenario gets canceled out by the chance that the defense makes an error, which is more likely to happen on a bunt than a normal ground or fly ball. There’s also a chance that the hitter reaches safely on a drag type play.
There is another variable - bunting skill. That is, who is bunting?
It is one thing to take the expectation table at face value. It is another recognize that if the batter can't get down a good bunt a high percentage of the time, you may end up too often with one of the undesirable outcomes: one of the two kinds of double plays that can happen, the lead runner getting forced out, or the batter ending up with 2 strikes on him.
Unless you seen, for example, some of the old Brooklyn-NY World Series games - you would have no idea that anyone could bunt as well as Phil Rizzuto or Jackie Robinson. I saw a game in which they combined for the 3 bunt base hits.
Absolutely! That’s something I’ve discussed a ton with other coaches on this topic.
Say the pitcher is up with a runner on 1st with no outs - he typically gets out so a strikeout is more detrimental to the team than a sacrifice since he’s expected to get out. However, if you have the 4 hitter up you probably don’t want to take the bat out of his hands in this situation…
Thanks for another awesome comment!
@@SimpleSabermetrics I only see AL games, so I forgot that pitchers bat.
FWIW, I seem to remember a game where Billy Martin gave the bunt sign to Reggie Jackson (batting 4th). Nothing good happened after that for quite a while.
This is baseballs problem. no creativity. imagine if you fielded a line up of really fast, great bunters. And they squared up every at bat. And swinging away was the exception instead of the rule. making contact on every at bat is going to change everything. By the later innings those infielders would be exhausted and stressed out of their mind.
Coach Kent Murphy taught me well. NEVER BUNT!
Partially why it took me so long to put up a video on the topic, could’ve just been a 1 second video of me saying “No.” haha!
Thanks for the comment!
Great content, great channel. Just got to find out about you, I'm subbed. Keep them coming and thank you from Argentina.
Glad to have you onboard all the way from Argentina! Thanks for the kind words and I'm pumped you enjoy the content!
with increasing use of field shift-defense, isn't the zone available to the bunt enlarged? doesn't that bode ill on a stat based on pre-shift era defense?
Can you do one on stolen bases
Absolutely! Expect that video sometime soon 👊🏻
Thanks for the comment!
Great video! I'm curious, how is the "chances of a run being scored" figure calculated?
Great question, Bryan! The percent chance of a run being scored I referenced here is calculated off of the historical run scoring performances at the MLB level from 2010-2015 (the same calculations I’m referencing can be found here batflipsandnerds.com/2018/10/06/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-bunt/)
Hopefully this helps answer your question! Thanks for the comment 👍🏻
I'm curious, do you know if it is common practice for teams to use a run expectancy matrix that has been tailored to their team, instead of using one that samples from all MLB games? I would also imagine it's possible to construct an RE24 for the specific match-up and opposing SP.
There’s a great product called SEQNZR that I did a video on in the past that has recently upgraded their model to include RE for each of your individual players, and even a prediction of how those players would fair against a certain pitcher.
Definitely would recommend checking it out!
Hey jake! Can you please check your PSU email??? I'm sorry for bugging you, but I would really like you to answer the questions that I sent. PLEASE!!?
Do you even use the jws... Email? Nice video by the way.
Just sent you a response Matthew. Thanks for the comment!