‘It is likely that India will be at just 6.5% growth next year as well’, says Economist Ajit Ranade
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ม.ค. 2025
- A combination of sluggish private investment, slowing consumer demand, high interest rates and the unpredictable ‘Trump factor’ will all come together to mean that a strong economic revival will be unlikely next year, Economist Ajit Ranade tells Deputy Editor TCA Sharad Raghavan in #ThePrintUninterrupted.
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This growth rate refers to organised sector. If you consider deceleration of unorganised sector the total GDP growth will be near about 2%.
But u need to see a lot of growth in unorganized sector also gets unrecorded to the two things even out
@@atherzaidi5871 dont see that in sales data of cars, grocery etc
@msdadsfsx ola, Uber etc made cars redundant in conjested cities. I have friends earning 50 lakh per year and not owning a car. Paying 25000 per month to ola /Uber is preferable to them than owning a car. Also when you buy a car you risk getting a income tax notice. As of groceries, if you buy from a local vegetable shop where is the data recorded. The shop owner is under reporting it. However a slow down in organized sector is going to hurt unorganized sector too sooner or later. A salaried employee is a customer to dozens of undocumented business: barbers, house painters, maids, butchers, vegetable vendors, beauty parlors etc. If salaried employees start getting on money saving mode, say start shaving at home instead of going to saloon or start cooking food at home instead of eating out or delay furniture purchases etc, the unorganized sector is going to feel the heat soon.
When billionaires keep asking people to work more hours and they have stopped hiring new people for the past 5 years. The finance minister will keep raising taxes so how would the middle class spend? Hence the slowdown in economic growth. People are working 15 hours and they are living hand to mouth only. Billionaires are getting Rich, richer and richest day by day. Narayan Murthy's daughter received 100+crores in dividends only.😂
So basically poverty will grow overwhelmingly and stunt the development of India.
India's manufacturing sector is struggling, with a growth rate averaging lower than the targeted. The sector's share of GDP has decreased, and employment has fallen.
Fdi has decreased. Private investments peaked at 27.5 per cent of GDP in 2007-08 since the economic liberalisation of 1991. At present, India is attracting fewer investments. Investments are going to Vietnam & Mexico.
India's progress depends on it's ability to adapt & evolve. Rigid thinking about the past & violence will prevent economic growth. They should also concentrate on increasing demand & private consumption.
Govt should be improving business environment & ease, simplifying policies, reducing overregulation, & the industry has to invest & upgrade in skills & training in state educational institutes.
For manufacturing to improve in India, govt should focus on increasing demand, private consumption, and supporting medium & small businesses, which create many jobs.
Instead of union govt blaming farmers, for India's manufacturing, just because they are farmers & there are no job option except farming today.
Highest unemployment is in Bihar, Haryana & Rajasthan. In India, those with only Class 10 & 12 education, have high employment rates, but some receive no pay. Also India has the highest deleting in the world.
Once, FDI had peaked at $77 billion, but the official target has now been scaled down to just $26 billion. Meanwhile, Vietnam, with $22 billion in FDI, has set an ambitious target of $50 billion. This reflects the reality of a rapidly growing economy.
@@aquilahmed716what are u smok ing India's fdi rise to all time high to 43 billion in January to September period
@@aquilahmed716konsa shuk rha hai bhai india fdi increase to 43 billion in January to September almost 47% increase from py
Somebody came to power promising "minimum government maximum governance". 😂
If you look at different GST rates on popcorn, 2 wheelers & 4 wheelers, elimination of gold loan subsidy, educational loan subsidy, housing loan subsidy, highest GST slab charged on rent and 18% GST charged on health insurance, it is all clear where the priority is for this government. Crony capitalism at its peak.
Gross FDI seems like significant increase, however, Net FDI, which accounts for inflows minus outflows was actually low.
So wait you’re telling me just slogans like Make In India, Vishwaguru, India being a Developed nation by 2047, etc. alone is not enough to drive growth.
I’m shocked!
Don't get too excited with one quarter's results
Reforms are needed both farm and manufacturing
That’s your problem.
Nehru ki galati is from past.
Vishwaguru already.
Vikasit bharat by 2047.
Don’t ask questions about present.
Don’t be stupid. Any nation has to have a long term vision and move in a certain direction. In the process, it encounters ups and downs and neither of them is long lasting.
The ups and downs, and long process, are very reminiscent of typical congress Party.
Maintaining democracy is more important than GDP growth for India.
When China was growing, the economy of the whole world was growing. They were the growth makers. They found out unmet needs, increased manufacturing efficiencies, and created demand by reducing the prices to such low levels that everybody could start affording stuff. Moreover the technological revolutions of the Internet and mobile phones gave a further boost. Now, we Indians must find our own growth opportunities. We have to be growth makers and not growth takers.
I like your statement " We need to be growth maker and not growth taker"...
Fully agree...
India has to..has to innovate new products and services to sell to the world...
Wage growth will be low for quite some time because of hour huge population because there is plenty of labour supply at this point. So the only way to increase wages is for government massively increase the investment so that it absorbs a lot of labour and makes way for wage growth.
20 million vacancies in central and state Govt... really....i really doubt that...
If we exclude the top 2 % of Indians, the remaining 98% earn less than that of African countries like Somalia and Sudan. What use is this " FASTEST GROWING LARGE ECONOMY " to a Bulk of Indians?
Exactly, these types of headlines are only for that 1-2% Indians and foreign western predatory investors. The remaining 98% of the population has nothing to fell good about it.
African countries also have a top 2%
Why would we remove the 2%? Doesn’t make sense
@@Bruh-og8rbdoes make sense! Don’t talk like a foolish person. If the lower income levels of a country don’t grow, there won’t be any improvement in quality of life of the poorer sections of the society! What is the definition of a developed country on a whole? Is it only to be a 30 trillion dollar economy, and third largest in the world, or also have a proportional income in all classes of the society
I fear it will be below 6.5%
For the current Government to perform like MMS era CPI inflation must go above 12% annually,
It is well in excess of that already 😂😂
in my lifetime, all economists have been more wrong than right, be it 2008 crisis or indian economy from 1950s till 1990. that applies to media as well. there is 70% chance that this prediction is wrong
How much is the role of two wars going on globally on slowing down?
What about minimum wage
How many way 'the print' can try to defend the govt
6.5 is very good if true...
Freebies kill us......😢
Results of good work come in 10 years but elections come in 5 years . This is a big constraint which China doesn't have to worry. This is a problem democracies have to solve. I think the only way to solve it is by producing high quality goods and export them in a big way but is a risky endevour because success of this strategy working depends on so many factors.
There is no way to solve lol.
Remember randus it is because Modiji gave you a 9.6, 8.2 and 7 percentage growths that 6.4 look bad to you (Modi-ji has pampered you). Now don't start a Bharat Jodo yatra to complain about 6.4%
9.6 after gdp fell by 23 percent
Lower base to start
Lol jhandu, by that logic modi also gave -5.6% growth. And we have had upto 8-9% growth in UPA and atal govt also.
@@adityabanerjee7145 huge negative growth during covid, made the growth or next two years look good on paper. In reality after 9.6 and 8.2 GDP was just at the same level as before covid. Even if one agrees with you 9 to 8 to 7 to 6 is a clear slowdown in fact in last quarter it was 5 point something. So the trend is clearly downward.
@@balajisridhar1116 Not quite the yearly fall was 6.6 percent annual...23% was the fall for only one quarter after lockdown
Ayodha will add one lakh crore to economy ,Kumbh mela will add 2lakh crore to economy...where does this money goes??Should India build more temple and organise more mela to achieve 8% growth??
It's just money of Indians changing hands. These things don't get much foreign tourists.
@@SuperCanonX2 But it is domestic demand and consumption that drives most growth in India. If Americans can go to Disneyland, Indians can go to Kumbh
Just watch godi media and some jokers. Then you will see growth cross 10%
US domestic tourism is enough since they already have & use US dollars in their country.
In trade, only the US dollar is accepted international, making it necessary to get dollars when countries need to purchase things from others.
The global economy relies totally on the US dollar. Countries have to import oil, which are priced in US dollars.
Countries peg their currencies to the dollar, which means central banks needs to buy US dollars to stabilize their own currencies.
Attracting international tourists is one way for other countries to earn US dollars.
While local customers spend in rupees, these are not useful. Because what you need more US dollars.
Intellectuals
Excellent analysis. Why are most people not watching these type of videos. Mainstream media attracts lot of entertainment and junk.
Jai shreeram
So finally librandus believe the growth rate last year was 8.2% - every randu kept ranting the figure was bogus and bloated. Suddenly 8.2% has become the true gold standard.
Ajit, why are you so against Oligarchic economy. These here are just excuses, it is obvious that your target are the super rich who are makkng a killing in partnership. Why are you so jealous?
The only thing one can say for sure that someone has admitted that he is at war against the Indian State!!!! Will this media carry an episode on this, honestly???????
For that media will have to show the full address and that talks about many other things which may be a but inconvenient for those with weak digestion
Ajit Ranade not impressed if you quote company CEOs... about economic issues ..
It should be Nestle CEO quoting Ajit Ranade about current economic situation to explain what his company is going through..
It is as clear as daylight that the Anchor and the Interviewee are in great delights to call for doomsday in India!!!! It’s quite another thing that if that happens, the Anchor will be shown the doors first!!!!!!! That he is not yet, means the economy is rightly working!!!!!!
Remember these faces people, These are the ones who are responsible for where we are! So called educated Folks getting info from WhatsApp University and when exposed to the truth they think everyones lying!