History Says These Wide Recievers Have No Hope
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.พ. 2024
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Dude, you are funny with your gloom and doom takes about historical and potential busts. But I will subscribe to your channel anyway, because you make gloom sound funny!😂
Jsn year 2 will be one for the books
Rooting for it!
I believe that too
on that boring ass offense? When pigs fly
The hype this time last year was insane and now JSN is doomed? He’s a buy low for sure
He's just looking at historical numbers man.., Tough pill to swallow, but I bet if you were inclined to sell JSN, you could still get something really nice for him.@@jefftej
Id prefer to see this in year 3 which traditionally was the breakout year prior to 2019.
"I just need him to do anything"😂😂 man
Hey Mason, very helpful video man. Appreciate it!
The analytics say JSN is more likely to be a bust; however, if you just look at the situation and talent on tape you can see how he could be an outlier
Yup rooting for him
Josh Doctson, Jalen Ragor, Quentin Johnston. All went to TCU. All picked in the nearly identical spot in round one. And all spectacular busts.
there’s no connection . Different coaches
I should not have worded "expected hit rate" the way I did based of the thresholds used.
The more important # to look at will be the raw amount of hits, not the %
BUYING JSN for my 1.12 non SF? Good deal for me?
Hell yeah JSN > 1.12
I'm concerned that the percentages you are showing are not statistically correct. This is because I think you're including only a few players above Johnston or JSN's stat line (your juicing), yet you're including all players below their stat line. So if a player had 0 receptions, you're including that player in your calculation even though that player did not have a similar season to Quentin Johnston or JSN. This will artificially increase your pool of failed players and make Johnston and JSN look worse. To calculate an accurate percentage, we need to include only players with similar statistics - basically take Johnston or JSN's stats and apply an error margin in either direction. I realize that this might reduce the sample size of WRs down to a tiny pool, making it difficult to infer anything, but at least the numbers will represent what we intended them to.
Yup not intended to just look at %s, rather the raw number of hits
This is cool content brother
Steve Smith explains it best and no one notices it before the season. Q can’t extend his arms and catch on the run in coverage. Everything he catches is body catches. Hardly ever can make a hands catch up top over a defender or contested. BUST. Plus Chargers drafting wr 2023 when 2024 class is loaded is insane.
Dont forget he said u can easily take him out of a game. He has no dog in him.
Very insightful video, although 2nd year hit rate doesn't seem doesn't really capture the whole picture when taking into consideration dynasty. I'd be curious to see something like "based off these low rookie numbers, how many times did a WR reach WR1 numbers throughout their career? How many seasons did they cross into WR2 numbers?" Similar format to your video, but over a career lifespan, and only evaluating for 1st rounders like you did toward the end of your video. Thanks Mason!
You're 100% right in wanting to see data like that. I'm just worried that if they aren't top 24 this next year their dynasty value will go to the gutter
12 team dynasty SF league, I traded Russell Wilson And Tank Dell for Jordan Love, thoughts?
12 tm sf: 1.05 or JSN and a 25 1st (currently looking like it will be a mid future first)
Flock Nation. Let’s get it!!!!!
Let's go!
What do you think about Dontayvion Wicks? He'll be available in my dynasty draft next season. Can he ascend the Packers depth chart?
Moved Johnston in a package for Tyjae Spears. Very glad I did
Where my Jalin Hyatt and Tyler Scott dynasty managers at?
🦗
Jsn is a stud this historical data leaves out so much context
I think QJ is going to take a couple years to develop. He has the tools but is super raw. We’ll see, as a charger fan I’m not too hopeful
I think JSN will be great. When he got the ball, he looked great. He just didn't get the ball much and we expected the limited production due to Lockett and Metcalf getting most of the targets. But we knew that going into this season, so I'm not sure why people dropped him way down their rankings.
QJ is a totally different story and deserved to drop majorly in rankings because he had all the opportunity in the world and didn't do anything with it, like Mason says in the video.
Most of his targets until that 49ers Catch, were screen targets. It shows how he felt about his usage with his remark against his former OC yesterday.
Because you had limited QB play and he’s already playing with an Alpha receiver in Metcalf. Unless there’s a consolidation of targets in seattle(AKA Lockett gets demoted or traded) JSN is going to continue to struggle because the passing offense is already limited
Yes however Lockett only has another year left at most. Dude is turning 32 in September@@silverknight876
still a Quentin Johnston believer !
Do I trade Johnston, 2.07 and 2.08 for 2.02 and 2.03 2024
Does qj being considered a “developmental prospect” before last years draft give you any more hope at all for his future?
How many on this list were "developmental prospects"? I have way more hope for JSN
If Tyler Lockett gets cut (cap casualty) do we reassess JSN ???
Outside Jamal Adams, he seems most likely for either a restructure or to get cut in Sea
how about how many become a WR3? those are at least sellable, you cant sell at least QJ right now
Another banger Mason but let me be your barber my boy
In my dynasty year draft day pick 5 i traded away. He took QJ. Wound up being pick 1.1! What a trade huh? QJ for MHJ
Thing about QJ is he's uber athletic but raw, might have needed developmental time. Keenan allen is getting old, and it's still to be seen how Jim Harbaugh will use QJ. I think he gets one more year under this new regime to see what he can be, but if he fails in 2024 he's a bust.
JSN was severely underutilized by Shane Waldron in Seattle. I am a Seahawk fan and it pissed me off how they basically only used him on screens for the first 10-12 games of the season.
DT had Tim Tebow throwing him the ball. 😂
DT was him. rip
Just pick up QJ for 2.09
8:23 so what you’re saying is that there is a chance
A 2nd for QJ is still too much. He would have to take a huge step forward just to rosterable. He can't separate and can't even win contested catches. He succeeded in TCU by getting schemed open and YACing his way to yards. Thats if he doesnt drop the ball in the first place. If we set his line to finish in the top 64 of WRs next year, I don't think he hits that.
JSN has at least looked ok as a WR. He can get open when hes on the field. Seattle did run a lot of 2 TE formations this year, or subbed in Jake Bobo a lot for his run blocking. Geno Smith also took a step back this year. I dont think JSN will ever be an NFL 1, but I think he will be a reliable 2. I think we can at least set his fantasy floor to top 36 moving forward
I honestly wouldn’t even trade my 3.02 that I have this year for Quentin Johnson. Really I wouldn’t, and this a 12 team SF start 9 full ppr lineup league.
Quinton Johnston, runs at least a low 4.4, he was a better YAC threat at TCU than receiver. Where on earth are you getting a 4.54 40 time?
Tank dell is gonna have the league on roller skates 🛼 again nxt year
Seems odd to say "reset" on a guy like JSN who already showed flashes in the NFL for a totally unproven 1.7 or 1.8. I could see taking Bowers in a TEP over JSN, but Rome or BTJ doesn't offer any more confidence over what JSN has already done.
1QB I had the 1.05 and 1.06 took qj and jsn im praying you’re wrong
I wouldnt eben want to burn a roster spot on Johnston at this point.
flock fantasy shitting on JSN? ya that man gonna be a star now
Should I trade the 1.03 and 1.05 for AR, Pittman, and Aiyuk?
What’s the format? Start how many players, how many teams, and SF or 1QB? All make a huge difference in the pick values and player values
@@Dude_im_Frying 10 team superflex
Nico had 446 his rookie season and 481 in year two
Team sucked and qb play was horrible.
Yup completely possible to turn it around
Expanding on my comment on the WR ranking video that I think you are referencing, I think JSN slots in above Deebo and Flowers.
Thank you for letting me know my guy. Appreciate you
Egg scramble, i see what you did there
😂😂😂😂
Traded JSN and 2.08 for Anthony Richardson. Thoughts?
EZ dubs in SF. Not a dub in 1QB
Love it in superflex
JSN is a round 4/5 startup pick from what I've seen. Without knowing for sure if Lockett is coming back or not, it's not worth the risk to me. JSN should be a great WR when it's all said and done, but it's not gonna happen with Geno Smith and/or Tyler Lockett on the squad.
DK and Lockett were both able to finish with over 1000 yards in 2022 with Geno Smith under center. JSN could easily get 90 receptions for 1000+ yards with Geno at QB if Lockett is not in the way.
@@evanvargas3170 Have you seen Geno play? I don't want to be a hater towards QB1 for the Seahawks as I'm a huge Seahawks fan, but he holds the ball way too long and doesn't trust his quick decision making at times. With their coaching staff I wouldn't be surprised if they lean into the running game a lot more at least at the start of the season. I'm intrigued as to what the offense will look like, and I really hope that I'm wrong about Geno, but I just don't see it.
Would y’all trade Cee Dee lamb and a 2025 late 2nd for
Tee Higgs , zay flowers and Jalen waddle ?
Format 12 team ,super flex , half ppr .
1 QB
2 rb
2 wr
1 te
2 flex
1 super flex . Thank Flock!
It's a fair trade
It’s about even. How are you depth wise? If you don’t have anyone else but CD, then take the package. If you have solid starters throughout your lineup then keep CD
Honestly i want out of JSN and Christian Watson so badly
Traded JSN and the 1.04 for Jamar Chase 12 team PPR SF . Thoughts?
Win!
10 team superflex start 9. 104 and Diggs for Kyler and 1.10
I’m buying all the JSN I can
Some of these guy here are like; (rounding up) “7% of the time it works every time”
How can you take London over JSn when London hasn’t even progressed in his sophomore year and has finished in the low 30s twice ?
Currently have both of them on my taxi squad in my dynasty league🥲 hope they can turn it around this next year
E before I, except after Y
I would buy JSN if I can get him and w/o hurting my team if he doesn’t succeed. But with a 2024 class like this I would rather wait and pursue someone else.
Give me Rome over him at this point
Would you trade the 1.05 for breece hall?
12T super flex
all day
Hall has more value right now
Absolutely!
without even thinking i’m trading the 1.05 for breece.
JSN to the Moon!
Seems weird to bring up that JSN outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in college (even though they both played less games than JSN) and that being a plus, but then hand waving away JSN not producing with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as teammates.
Wow if outlook on JSN is this low buy buy buy. He’s gonna be great and it was always known he is going into a crowded wr room making his breakout delayed
You want him over 1.07? Over Rome?
QJ had the opportunity and still flopped. Not a good sign.
Who will be a bigger bust, QJ or Jonathan Mingo? 🤔
Rango
I drafted JSN last year in multiple leagues expecting less in year 1, he also had a hand injury for about a month that we know of too. If anything hes an injury concern. Plus they used him out of his strengths when he was targeted.
Still think its weird to not see DK on your list...
Look at the last time he was a top 15 WR from a PPG basis
I get your POV, I do. But when you look at the season he had, wasn't he ranked #16 in .5PPR formats? I thought he was top 20 at least across the board, but maybe I'm off a bit. I find it hard to believe he's not in the same tier with Tee Higgins or Drake London. He's even ranked ahead of London on your website. So just confused, that's all. Love your work.@@Dynastyflock
thinking of trading my odunze pick for JSN+. I am in a league where ppl don't sell low on guys like this.
i would do that. but i already have JSN so take that what it is.
fomo is everything. I drafted JSN and now I want him back hahah@@Thayu.fields
Traded JSN for Bryce Young.
Superflex?
@@Dynastyflock oh yeah. No doubt. Would never do that in 1 QB haha
I'm taking JSN over every single player/pick you named at the end. 😂😂
1.07? You want JSN over Rome?
@Dynastyflock I'd prob take Rome over him, depending on landing spot. I'd take JSN over 1.07 though, assuming non-TEP...I still love JSN, and the talent. Not ready to move off of him for another unproven asset who is potentially less talented. 🤞🤞 Lockets hits the 🚪🚪.
Why does he have no hair
Gabe "Greg" Davis is way too high in the flock rankings
You're right, will update
Basing all this off historical data is crazy. How about the eye test? Did you watch JSN play this season? Kid has a LOT of potential
Yup which I talk about at the very end. Just a baseline my friend
Thanks for the info now go get yourself a shapeup lmao
QJ is a bust! JSN will be a high end WR2 this year or next.
Yall my dynasty league is trash if anyone need an extra person let me know!
Your method of calculating "hit rate" isn't very meaningful because there's no minimum thresholds. Players with QJ-tier stats shouldn't count against JSN's hit rate. You could do the same thing with JJ/Chase and the hit rate number would also be surprisingly low if you count ALL players beneath the thresholds. There should be minimum thresholds so you're comparing JSN to guys who got between 4.5-6.5 targets, 8.1-10.1 fantasy points, etc.
Yup like I said the % isn't the exact number to be looking at, however the number of players that actually hit
Oh, I just commented something similar to this, but looks like you beat me to it!
How are we confidently taking Drake London over JSN??? Come on
The bar is set so low for click bait.
You are so bad at this
This guy never fails to hustle extremely hard and work his ass off only to bring us horrendous content haha. Love the work ethic but this video was really really bad in regards to JSN takes hahaha Jesus a trash dumpster fire
Click bait garbage is all your serving on JSN here. Congrats you got my last click smh
If you came here to be pissed at Mason then leave and don't come back😐👉
@@cg26368 already hit the door thanks
@@cg26368 if he can’t take the comment he is in the wrong line of work also.
@@camcurtis9219 and if you come here to spread negativity you're simply a jackass.
@@cg26368😂😂😂😂😂Ok Karen! 😂😂😂😂😂😂