Finding Amelia with Hard Facts and Sound Science - Ric Gillespie at NEAM
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- On Sunday, July 16, we were treated to a talk by Ric Gillespie, Executive Director of TIGHAR - The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery, on "Finding Amelia with Hard Facts and Sound Science." He debunked some of the recent theories on her fate and offered a very realistic picture of Earhart, her attempted world flight, the events surrounding her disappearance, and the U.S. government's failed attempt to find her.
As a former USAF navigator with a fair amount of celestial navigation experience I wouldn't want to make their trip with their equipment in poor weather. A publicly stunt gone awry.
Amelia was a couragous adventurer.
It makes sense if they were blown south and looking for Howland and decided after circling and not finding it to go south where there are more islands. Or even thinking they did find Howland and saying we can't see you meaning the ship.
I agree with radio signals and propagation. On 5.262 MHz my signals are weak and only just audible at Hack Green online receiving station 40 miles away but I am able to get to Mallaig almost 300 miles away to make a contact. This is with 2 Watts out. My contacts have been between 80 miles and 284. It's not a popular frequency so I don't know how much further my signal would go. It works this way for ground based stations but having never flown in a plane with radio I can't say about that propagation mode.
That donut is known as the dead zone or skip zone.
Beddie Clink and the New York City reference does sound interesting.
Bill, amateur radio call sign G4GHB.
This is the best factual information that I have ever seen, and much time spent dispelling myths and disinformation. The title of this video is not misleading, as they don't claim to have all the facts and the final answer. They sure do have a lot of facts. FINALLY, after so many BS videos on this subject, this one is credible and full of solid information.
Another thought of mine: if the aircraft lost one of its main gears then one engine would be in the water or muck all the time, while the other would be higher than normal. And that one engine is the generator for running electrical. Losing a main gear might have been a blessing at the time, to allow one engine to be run.
Ric Gillespspie goes over that in the question and answer session at the end of the presentation.
It would have been better if Ric had mentioned a few other very important facts. I have the complete Itasca radio log for reference. At 7:40 a.m. Earhart reported that she was running out of gas and had only 30 minutes left". That's not enough fuel to fly from the area of Howland to Gardner Island. You can do all the fuel remaining calculations you want, but those are her exact words as recorded by the Itasca radio log. At 07:58 she reported that she was circling but could not hear the Itasca. Her last recorded message to the Itasca was at 08:44 a.m. Nothing after that. Her estimated fuel remaining must have been correct and she went into the water probably within 100 miles of Howland. Other facts, there were men, women, and children living on the island from about 1940 to the early 1960s. There are lots of women artifacts on the island from the settlers. Another fact, the survivors from the Norwich City left behind plenty of food, water, shelter material, and even a lifeboat after they were rescued in 1929. In his report, H.E. Maude reported that the remnants of those supplies were still on the island in October 1937.
But I must give credit where credit is due. TIGHAR is the world's foremost authority on the Earhart mystery. That fact is not in doubt. But between the H.E. Maude expedition in 1937, the Nimanao expedition in 1941, and a multitude of expeditions by TIGHAR they have proven beyond a doubt that Earhart did not land on Gardner Island.
@@booniebuster4193 do you have an web address so the rest of us can read the Itasca log for ourselfs. A lot of people clam to have records but never shre them, I woiuld be intrusted in reading those. I believe Ric Gillespspie said once that Earhart said she was only "low on fuel" . and never said I have 30 minutes remaining. I would be very intrustred again in reading those records if you could provide them to everyone. Thank you.
Silly
@@booniebuster4193 If they were not near Howland as explained in this video they might have had enough fuel to get to Gardner. Then enough fuel to run the engines to power the transmitter for six days as there's no aircraft weight guzzling fuel.
The trouble with Ric he does not use science or even flight records of erarharts last flight.
There were a LOT of inaccuracies from that History Ch. Documentary. They even said the Electra was the first all-metal plane EVER built. Simply NOT true. That's just one example. But there were a LOT of mistakes in that show.
I believe in the gardner island theory good luck boys !!✌️✌️
the plane went down in the ocean north of Howland island.
th-cam.com/video/sKSCK0nB9yQ/w-d-xo.html
We hope her bones can be found!
If they maid it to a island why not make a sos sign or smoke signal
No one knows the inventory of her plane so we don't know if she had that capability. But if she had done, she almost definitely wouldn't have been seen anyways. It took the US Navy days to reach the island
Lack of hard facts.
airplane is there
She wouldn't have been held captive. Japan was famous for beheading
The thing that doesn't add up about the radio signals after flight ceased: Nobody heard exactly the same thing. If you had several independent reports all saying the same thing, then that would have something, but all can be dismissed, because they didn't hear the same thing.
not necessarily. The signals were modulating, they couldn't be heard as clearly as when she was in the air. Not everyone would hear the same message depending on the signal propergation throung and bouncing off the upper atmmosphere.
@@UncleTerry A lot of attention has been paid to Betty's famous notebook in which she reported recorded Earhart's calls for help. But what Betty was listening to was probably a broadcast radio station and the program "The March Of Time". Google search for "The March Of Time". On one of the pages in the notebook, Betty wrote down the call letter "KGMB", which was the call sign for a Broadcast radio station in Honolulu Hawaii. Earhart's radio call sign was "KHAQQ". The Itasca's call sign was NRUI.
They assessed each report independently with various factors to gauge how credible it was. Most have been dismissed as false, the rest that remain are the most believable
Not everybody would be listening at the same time so various messages could have been heard.
Note..An importsant fact is where them sonar image was taken off Howland island. This was Earhart's last reported location. If it were some other airplane that rolled off a carrier what are the chances that it would have done that at Earharts last location. THERE IS NOT OTHER AIRCRAFT REPORTED MISSING IN THIS AREA. wAKE UP. That fact couped with the size of the image and the distinctive tale piece show clear evidance that Earharts plane has been found near Howland island , where she ran out of fuel, and not 400 miles away. Robart Ballad did and exhaustive 2 million dollar search in the waters around Gardiner island where you say the plane was washed over into the ocean and he found no trace of the place. A whole plane just does not dissolve like and alka seltzer. Get real Ric.
I bet the aircraft is sitting at about 6,000m on the ocean floor.
gee.. you think?
More likely she landed on a cloud
Like most A.E. documentaries, the last half tends to be vast amounts of copium.
Likely she did land on that reef
Tighar has been looking in the wrong spot for years. No way she had the fuel to reach Gardner. The Electra would float. It was carrying 1092 gallons of fuel and 0 gallons when she crashed. The tankage would displace at least 1092 gallons of water at 8 pounds/gallon or 8,736 pounds. The aircraft weighed around 7,000 pounds. 8,736 > 7,000 = floats.
Was looking at Tighar website and can’t find where they have located and recovered any historic aircraft?
They have not!
With all respect for Amelia, Fred and those who for decades relentlessly pursued the answers. Perhaps at this juncture it may be best to put search efforts to rest, considering the tremendous cost and possible health and safety risks to the searchers. I think most experts would agree on the most likely cause of the disappearance. Difficulties with navigation and radio communication led to the exhaustion of fuel. Even if it was discovered that they were captured by the Japanese, what would be done about it in today's political environment? Ask for an apology from allies who's parents weren't even alive when this incident occurred?
My theory they landed on a coral reef gave sos signals " then high tide and winds floated the plane into the night many kilometres away where it finally sank.with injured amelia and co pilot unable to move at all !
If she was out of fuel, how'd she run the engine to recharge the battery? Plot hole right there.
They believe she wasn't out of fuel when she landed. Did you even watch the full video
30 minutes left. Landing on Gardner saved fuel to run the radio and not lugging weight of the aircraft saved fuel.
A lot is being made of Betty's Notebook. But I find it very curious that Betty also wrote down on one of the pages in her notebook the letters "KGMB". KGMB happened to be the call sign for a broadcast radio station on the air at the time from Honolulu Hawaii broadcasting on a frequency of 1320. It was also carrying the radio program "The March Of Time". That program was a news and reenactment program of current events of the day. In it, actors would play the part of newsworthy characters. It so happens that one of those stories was about Amelia Earhart. Probably many times during the search efforts. I suspect that what Betty heard was the skip wave from that broadcast on radio station KGMB.
th-cam.com/video/08uYcvbTuF4/w-d-xo.html
A British officer and his survey crew indeed landed on Gardner Island in October of 1937. Their ship was tied up to the stern of the shipwreck. They spent 3 days searching and exploring the island. His name was H.E. Maude. He made a very detailed report of what was on the island and the feasibility of supporting a small population of Islanders from other islands. His report is more than 30 pages long. There is no mention in his report of aircraft wreckage found on the reef or anywhere on the island. Also, in January 1941 the schooner Nimanoa landed a party on Gardner and did not mention any airplane wreckage on the reef.
If it was in deeper water why would they see anything.
@@bill-2018 Remember, the hypothesis is that the castaways died on the island. That would mean that their remains would be lying around somewhere. No bodies were found. Not even any remains of the crew of the Norwich City who died as a result of the shipwreck. Some of them were buried on the island in 1929.
@@booniebuster4193 Eaten by crabs and bones crunched if they ever got there?
The found the aircraft 100 off howlands island near its last location.
Sixty miles.
I think she ditched in the ocean between Howland and Gardner island, and the radio messages that followed where trolls after they heard she was missing
Sandwiches are important. She was probably hangry abd over shot the island
has anything been said as to why she didn't say her name or name of the island when was on air ? every thing may of been over the heads of plane ole people on a radio back then , just seems i would say my name first off .
She might have said her name. If they didn't know the name of the island but can see the name on that ship so used that. Or they believed they were on Howland so no need to say any more just,"We can't see you" meaning the ship.
I think the radio signals on a harmonic are at best unlikely. A contemporary navigator worked the numbers on this and put her final radio call at around 0 deg 10 min N 175 deg 55 min W. That's around 58nm SE of Howland and several hundred miles from Nukimoro. He also stated that assuming she was in the vicinity of Howland (which seems likely given the signal strength being strong, then faded.) there is no way she would have had the fuel to reach it. The presentation is some years old, but it's on YT here... th-cam.com/video/T7dg9sqnppA/w-d-xo.html
You are correct. At 7:30 a.m. she reported to Itasca and stated that "gas is running low, only 30 minutes left. She also stated "We must be on you, but can not see you. She also stated that she was "circling" at a location where she thought Howland Island should be. But obviously, it wasn't! This information was taken directly from the Itasca radio log recorded that morning. I have the full transcript.
@@booniebuster4193 I think you mean Howland island.
Were they circling Gardner island thinking it was Howland and her saying we can not see you mean they could not see the ship.
@@bill-2018 There is no radio language in her last messages that would indicate she ever saw any island or ship.
@@booniebuster4193 Did she report seeing any ships?
Why no backup frequency to use?
It seems badly organised.
What of the supposed bearings from PanAm radio ops. at Gardner island?
@@bill-2018 I have a copy of the actual authentic radio log recorded by the Itasca on that morning. It is a microfilm copy of the original. So it is not open to speculation as to what was or was not, said. The only time she mentioned seeing a ship was when she was only about 700 miles from Lae and some 1,300 miles from Howland. At that time she reported that she saw lights from a ship. I think that ship was the "Myrtalbank" (sp?). But that radio call is not in the Itasca log because they did not hear it. She was too far away at that point. According to the Itasca log, at no time did she mention seeing any ships or any island.
As for the Pan Am radio bearings. These radio calls were likely authentic. But not from the Electra! Several ships in that part of the Pacific were aware of and were in some cases searching for the Electra. The airwaves were full of radio calls trying to contact the Electra. Some were originating from the area around that island chain. Of course, some of the radio bearings were pointing to that area. Even if some bearing did point to Gardner Island, the Navy would have gone there immediately and searched for the Electra. One Navy search plane did fly over the island early on but did not see any distress signals or airplane wreckage. There were likely some private citizens in the U.S. who were also making calls in the blind trying to establish contact with Amelia.
Let's say for the sake of argument that she did actually land on Gardner Island and was making radio calls. According to the TIGHAR hypothesis, she landed directly in front of the shipwreck S.S. Norwich City which was pretty much fully intact at that time. The shipwreck was noted on navigational maps for that area of the Pacific. All she, or Fred, would have had to do was look at the map and see which island the S.S. Norwich City was wrecked on. That would give her the name of the island, which she could then transmit that name over the radio.
Over 2,000 miles in a loud prop plane no thanks. My head would explode
How did Earhart know that ship wreck was the SS Norwich City? any names must have been eroded off.
The ship's marking were still visable.
There was also a cache of survival supplies with a sign left on the island by the shipwreck rescuers. There was even a lifeboat from the Norwich City included in that cache. Generally, the name of the ship is also put on their lifeboats.
She flew past Howland Island
Im listening to this video and all i see is Kermit the Frog talking
the airplane is there
You nailed it!! So funny!! 😂
Tom Devine = Gomer Pyle. Somebody was pulling his leg in classic US military style and he was still falling for it 50 years later.
the airplane is there
Mr Gillespie, you stopped short very much planned to not say why Noonan and Earhart are in a book from 1935. I smell a conspiracy to say the photo was 1935 instead of when they disappeared. What is Noonan and Earhart doing in Jaluit with a Japanese ship in the background towing an aircraft that resembles the Lockheed Electra. Please do us a gigantic favor and stop pretending to solidify your theory of Gardner Island and answer why Noonan, Earhart and the plane are in a photo in Japanese waters in 1935 which show hands down that they are the ones in the picture. I am waiting for your response that you side tracked. hmmmmmmm
I think that's actually Hillary Swank who time traveled to be in the photo. unless it's a another random person photographed from 50 + yards away. 😂
The flight happen in 1937! enough said
lol!
Photos been debunked. Earhearts plane has been found by sonar ~3 miles down near Howland island.
The hypothesis is that she landed on the reef near the wreckage of the Norwich City. Then according to the TIGHAR theory, she left the Electra and all of their survival gear except for some odd things like a Freckle Cream bottle and hiked 3.5 miles to the far side of the island and died at the "7 site". That is about as far as you can get away from the Norwich City. Is that logical?
Not to mention all of the supplies left on the island by the Norwich City rescuers. Odd! What were they thinking?
Fascinating report. You appear to have covered absolutely everything and I wish you well into the future. I do wonder what survival gear they may have carried for such a trip in those days. Rgds from Australia.
On one video a guy who had been a pilot and navigator said there was no life raft visible in the plane looking at photo's so maybe not much else.