I was incredibly impressed by this stream. I was expecting this to be about a particular Sonic the Hedgehog fetish, but instead learned about the slow death of the American Empire.
@@orangechicken2262 Eh, I'd give it half of that at best for being an actually important empire. For how massive and omnipresent the US is, the time it took to reach peak US was somewhat short, aka it's all downhill from here. Enjoy the good times while they last. They won't last forever.
@@LiveType The peak was '91 all the way through the noughties. Russia was still a collapsed mess for most of the early half, China wasn't relevant like it is now, and the EU hadn't deepened continental economic links to the same degree. Then again, US power disparity in the nineties wasn't exactly sustainable, so...
Legit such a helpful stream to have watched, love that Atrioc just talks about whatever is on his mind like this inflation and the dating problems of this generation from a while back. I learn so much.
If anybody reads this, Does this US talk also apply to other 1st world countries in EU? I know my country is having a hard time with inflation too at the moment, will this only worsen as time goes on?
@@Zuignap I don't really know what I'm talking about but I'm assuming yes. I don't know the specific situations going on in those countries but unless someone in power takes the responsibility to combat inflation it will only get worse. Like that one guy was saying in the video, inflation was able to take down Rome, there's no reason it couldn't do the same to countries today.
@@Zuignap any country that has their economy tied to the US dollar, yes. Anyone else, indirectly yes because a collapsing america will most likely start wars or worse to stimulate the economy or divert attention from homeland issues etc
@@Zuignap A lot of countries are connected and will be heavily affected if the US dollar falls, this is the reason the whole world felt the effects of the financial crisis in 2007.
In my Indonesia, inflation rose dramatically in 1997-1998, this caused mass rioting and the collapse of the Suharto dictatorship, inflation breaks government
@@bhadra3688 inflation was what broke it, the populace were willing to comply as long as the economy was on the up, when it went down there were no reason to have the old dictator
@@yeetyaga5543 In fairness to the IMF, the currency peg Indonesia had prior to '98 (fixed to USD) wasn't sustainable at all. They could have definitely done better, but the same could have been argued for the Indonesian state (who arguably bear a much bigger responsibility to their own people than the IMF).
Surprising to see this type of content from the same channel that brought glizzyhands clown memes but this is an important topic explained in a simple way. I wish more people were aware of the financial systems and economics we are inheriting. Talk about the federal reserve next!
Even when I personally have known this was inevitably going to happen since the early 2010's, I really appreciate Atrioc explaining it in such a way that it makes sense to even those who have not learned about inflation and economics. I never really had an easy way to explain this to my friends and family, now I finally have a video that really nails it home.
I mean, youre not that informed lol, as someone getting a degree in economics this video is an oversimplification of an oversimplification that gets a lot wrong. But it is a nice launch pad if youre interested in econ I guess.
@@hikikomori_3708 eh, looks grim but will probably be managed. My main 2 gripes w this vid/vod are the conclusions of a weigning America and some technical details. So the firdt thing some history, you have to take into account that the US came back from the great depression and became the dominant empire it is today, not to toot the already gigantic horn of American exceptionalism but the US is a pretty great country, if you look at debt to gdp weve seen these exact same numbers during the 2nd world war, wether another Roosevelt will come to bail us out is tough to say, but even if someone of his quality of leadership doesnt come the US is in a significantly better position than it was during the 2nd world war, and especially with rising tensions our allies dont seem to be losing faith. Like the US was in a cold war with the Soviets for 50 years before it eventually came out victorious, and even though it seems like the US is losing influence especially with the very shaky economy at the moment, its not like the US didnt have a lot of problems throughout the 1950s onwards, this is definitely the begining of a new cold war, but so far the US is 1-0 and China while a threat, doesnt have the track record nor influence to become the next hegemon. And on the 2nd technical side, the inflation we're seing is 95% supply chain and production issues, if "money printing" truly was the case, wed be seeing similar levels of inflation in countries like Russia and Japan, but Japan if anything has deflation, and Russia due to their system of Autorarky also isnt getting majorly hit by their monetary policies. Out of all the excess money in the banking system, a very low proportion is actually trickling out into the wider economy, the only reason the domestic economy is still growing is because consumption and investment spending has switched to different specific markets. QE is basically a tool to manipulate yield spreads, i.e mumbo jargon aside, it manipulates the types of liquidity within the system, qe contrary to popular belief doesnt cause inflation, and the stimulus money has probably had some effect but its been negligible compared to the supply side crisis as it’s mostly gone into the luxury consumption side from what I can see. Vast majority of the excess money has gone into assets like houses, stocks, crypto etc. Crypto (a worthless thing at the moment) is basically the money going to rich people, i.e a transfer of wealth/ funging the money away from the recipiants of stimulus. This isnt too problematic, but an increase in housing and the capital markets is, due to cash being cheap and already inflated company valuations this leads to a lot of zombie companies which would collapse without 1. this excess capital, and 2. Cheap money/low interest rates, so this being inflated is quite an issue which will be difficult to solve as absolving these zombie companies will lead to unemployment, which might lead to more stimulus, which again leads to zombie companies and market inefficiences. But it could potentially be managed with direct government involvement, and a shift in both collected taxes and also already collected taxes, in the form of FDR style government job programs, where even though these zombie companies close, the negative effects like unemployment and a new found lack of production of whatever product the now defunct company was producing. I.e if someone was making cake decorations, a product only viable because of the markets position due to the already mentioned reasons, this person could work and make something the market simply doesnt make due to the lack of a profit motive (not even lack but maybe even subsidization) i.e roads bridges hospitals HOUSES BUILDINGS etc. In any case its quite a tricky predicament, which if not handeled properly will definitely lead to a recession bigger than 08, but its not impossible to handle 1, and 2 even then it shouldnt be as bad as the great depression and more over due to obstructionism and the now more locked version of governance, radical changes both for the bad and worse will be tricky to implement. Tldr, its bad, its a 4/10 situation, or in other words a slightly less optimal position, but it isnt anything that'll end the economy and systems in place like the streamer got a lot of ppl believing.
@@Firelove7k I watched the vod, he seems to not get a good bit of stuff about quantitive easing, more over in this very video he said some questionable things, check my other comment above this one for some clarification
The last time the US had a debt to GDP ratio this high was after WWII. It is very possible to recover from such a high debt as was done over the course of 30 years in the past, but doing so will require some sacrifices to the policy agendas of both parties.
@@yoqqen It's certainly possible to overcome it, but I believe that post-WWII politics were much less divided than they are today, meaning it is likely going to be very hard. Also, moving countries will likely not help in the microeconomic sense either because 1) the vast majority of developed countries have debt to GDP ratios similar to the US (106.70%) right now as well (Japan double the US at 237%) with only a few exceptions like Russia at 13.79%, Denmark at 33.61%, Norway at 36.75% and Sweden at 37.23%, and 2) If the US economy fails, the entire global economy fails everywhere as happened in 2008. Since the entire world has become so reliant upon the U.S. dollar and the U.S. financial system, a failure of the U.S. dollar and a significant downgrade in U.S. credit ratings as it defaults on foreign debt will unquestionably throw the entire world into a deep depression, including those countries with low debt to GDP ratios.
As someone who is the finance industry and studied it is that this is a way bigger issue than I think many people realize. Big A did a great job breaking it down my only criticism is he said interest rates are 0 making money easier to borrow with no penalties and this is true for big banks/ corporations not really the general population because banks are still making a big profit margin on this even with the 0% rates
5:45 What Atrioc forgot to mention here is that this drop in interest rates came after a massive increase in available resources after both the fall of the Soviet Union and the liberalization of a lot of the Chinese economy. This pushed down inflation rates to historic levels. This is the reason for the steady decrease in interest rates. Essentially, more and more resources and labour became available, which pushed down prices. This trend is now reversing itself with the Russian invasion of Ukraine knocking out 2 of the world's biggest raw resource exporters and China collapsing internally. This is causing a resource crunch and thus requiring a hike in interest rates to make up for it. Creating more money when there is an increase in available resources is no issue. It is only when available resources decrease that there is a problem. Supply and demand need to be seen together, not individually. Creating new money increases demand, but if there is enough supply to match it, then there isn't an issue.
Dude, came because of Hitman, admired because of inflation. Great talk, I guess we need more of this so newer people understand a bit of what is going on. Cheers from Brazil.
Isn't one of the reasons inflation was such a big deal for the Roman empire because the currency was represented by something tangible like gold? So each time you print money you effectively divide the value of what you printed since you aren't increasing the actual reserve. But we use Fiat currency now so what exactly does inflation mean? Does it only really mean anything on a global scale for exchange rates?
It means if the government does nothing for long enough they'll need a new fiat currency. For you, you better start making plans to make sure you don't hold fiat as your primary savings because that's going to become worthless over the next ~30 years. However, there is something to be said that the US also owns most of its own debt. It's a weird concept if you think about it but it effectively means the number attached to the debt means basically nothing which is a super interesting case study because japan adopted that practice first and they seem to be doing just fine. In fact, due to their declining population inflation is effectively zero or even negative and has been for the past 20 years. So the answer is: the current debt the US "owes" is effectively meaningless. Look at other indicators such as demand. Overall consumer demand shows no signs of slowing down. The moment it does is when real shit will start happening. This will likely be triggered by increased interest rates so again, look at demand as that's what determines pretty much everything.
TL;DR: Yes. Inflation can be bad for the domestic market as well as the international market. Inflation means a rise in the general price level (and therefore the decrease of the value of a unit of money). Suppose the supply of money doubled. Holding goods produced constant, all prices would double and you are left with the exact same result - you can purchase exactly as many goods as you could before the infusion of money happened. If this is the case, what is the big deal with inflation? As I see it, there are mainly two complications: 1) in doubling the money supply you often redistributed wealth. You do not "print" money and give it equally to everyone, and 2) prices are sticky - businesses cannot perfectly predict how an infusion of money will affect demand for their particular product. In effect this leaves periods where the markets no longer reflect supply and demand (remember that prices are decided by supply and demand). In other words there will be market inefficiencies (a cost to society). Typically, higher inflation gives longer periods of market inefficiencies. If inflation is "too high" (hard to put an exact number here, but some examples are Venezuela with inflation exceeding 1,000,000 % in 2018) then markets may be extremely inefficient or completely brake down. You could imagine that the rate at which markets adjust is perpetually slower than the rate at which prices change. In terms of inflation this is called hyperinflation. It should be stressed that moderate inflation is not a worry. Deflation is viewed as being much worse.
@@LiveType I mean we probably shouldn't learn anything from Japan's economy. It's huge and all but their economy's been declining for the past 30 years
The modern equations for inflation unlike their predecesors takes into account money velocity, if I print a quadrillion dollars but never spend a dime of it on anything I havent actually increased the money supply, the majority of the money introduced through QE has gone into assets, thats why things like houses, crypto, stocks etc are seeing record inflation numbers. Besides that the majority of the US debt is owed to itself, and so a total collapse might not happen as if you for example cleaned my toilets and I promised to pay you back but never did, the work wouldve still been done, but a default would result in the US losing its AAA standards and foreign countries maybe trusting the US less, but even then without a real alternative if the US showed a change in policies that would stop debt from getting as high as it did Id predict trust being regained rather fast. In any case this video is gross oversimplification, maybe even missinformation, as it gets "money printing" and QE totally wrong, and leaves the impression of the US empire collapsing even though every fucking country on this planet is allied with the US.
@@greed864 love the analogies you've used! earnest. And forgive me for a basic reply.. but imo i think you missed an obvious detail. that the QE/inflation/global competition is entwined in beyond what i understand at least. I just dont think that was the point he was actually focusing on. The "fixing" that was focused on was a way that politicians should stop exponential inflation instead of the bandaid solution of printing more money
This is solid, but it's worth noting that there is not just demand pull inflation (higher demand due to an increase in the monetary supply) going on, but cost push inflation (higher costs due to supply chain issues). Arguably cost push inflation is a bigger factor right now (as evidenced by many other countries seeing similar inflation rates to the US - Canada, pretty much all of Europe, India, etc).
I love that you can essentially watch all educational Atrioc videos twice. The first time to take in the information, and the second time to watch chat LMAO
Loved this video! Very informative. However, there was post on the reddit critiquing/bringing more nuance to Atrioc's argument and it would be great if he gave his thoughts on it during the next reddit recap.
There are a couple of issues I have with this whole argument. The first is the purchasing power of the dollar (as in, what the dollar actually gets you). In traditional inflation, the cost of goods rises relative to the amount of "money being printed" (ie: paying $10,000 for a carton of eggs). However, if the cost of goods does not rise relative to inflation or even falls relative to inflation, then that mitigates the damages in a major way. (This tends to happen as a function of societal advancement - whether through technology, automation processes, etc.). The second thing is just... We have more people and more goods. That requires more money. If the money supply remained fixed, money itself would become scarcer, making it harder to acquire goods in the first place - which would tank the economy.
That is also linked to inflation with the cost of living increases being way above and salary increases or minimum wage increases. People are poorer now with more money than 10-20 years ago because of the cost of living increases. Power costs (gas and electric) are going through the roof here in the UK, but milk is going to remain stable. Doesn't change the fact people will have less money. During the pandemic, where the majority of the additional cash for printed, the top 5 companies gained a huge amount of wealth whilst everyone else suffered. Inflation and interest rates are going up and we are for sure going to hit a huge depression. It doesn't matter how much money is printed if it all sits in Billionaires bank accounts offshore, while they exploit a workforce who can barely afford essentials.
If you want another hilarious financial story about Munger, check out the munger dorm. This dude is promising to give a huge amount of money to a college to solve their student housing crisis… on the condition that they use the money to construct a giant 4500 student megadorm he designed himself. He doesn’t have any architectural training, multiple architects resigned out of shame, and more than 90% of the rooms will not have access to sunlight. Undergrad prison block.
Instead of giving the politicians the pleasure of voiding my entire net worth, I voided it all myself by investing in Shiba Inu. By learning to live on the streets before the masses join me, I will be able to establish myself as a head figure after the economic doomsday.
One thing that should be stressed is that inflation = rising prices, this is natural and almost necessary in small amounts to encourage spending, the problem is when it gets out of control. This is so important that regulating it is pretty much the sole aim of some central banks like the European Central Bank . The devaluation of currency is a natural side effect, but it's not a problem in and of itself. Another thing to keep in mind is that printing money also doesn't always necessarily equal inflation or currency devaluation, it all depends on growth and current market conditions, which is why it's okay sometimes to print more money during a depression, the problem is when you don't slow down after because it's almost impossible politically.
This is a very great ideal for you exactly making a video because I think you're the best to do this. And I'm glad you made this video. I might show this to my class one day
These serious deep dives into economy are honestly some of my favourite Atrioc content. Love hearing someone who's relatively informed explain these principles in easy to understand and entertaining ways. Props to big A!
Cool video! I Think Atrioc gets it wrong/backwards a couple of times here as pointed out by other commenters. What I haven't seen anyone comment on is the subject of the national debt, which Atrioc brings up. TL;DR: The national debt is not a problem. The national debt is simply a record of how much money the government has generated and infused into the economy. When Atrioc says "The best way to make this debt not a problem is to inflate the currency so much that it is not worth that much", he gets it backward. The government can always pay its debt because it is a currency issuer, and so paying down the debt is never a problem. This is fundamentally different than our private debt (we cannot pay it back in our own made currency like monopoly money). US States, however, are currency takers just like the rest of us. Paying down the national debt, or increasing the national debt could be problematic becaues it could cause inflation/deflation. Imagine that the government ran a budget surplus by having tax revenue exceed spending and buying back government debt (treasuries). Then, in effect, there would be less money in society (because either tax revenue has increased of government spending has decreased). This is deflationary and slows growth. If the Fed "printed money" to buy back treasuries / didnt issue any more treasuries and payed off the outstanding debt this could be inflationary. This isn't really a bad thing though, it only shows that the national debt is a useful instrument (or rather government treasuries are the instrument) in monetary policy.
Some of this is (quite) incorrect... for one, interest rates/'mopney printing/ are set by the Federal reserve which is *independent* from the government - meaning unlike South America (where many central banks are not independent), it ain't possible for people to vote themselves into money, nor is it the decision of the party in charge to keep interest rates low to stimulate growth. That's all on the Fed (which the President can ask to do things like raise interest rates, but not order).
Great point! I agree some of this information is incorrect, but what can you expect from a streamer trying to explain something like inflation to a crowd that probably doesn't know a lot about it. It would have been nice if he was correct about everything, but I think he did a good job of just hitting a few points so you can generally understand a certain topic
@@Noah-lj2sg right independent just means they aren’t controlled top down by the president, congress can pass policy to change their objectives but they will always be roughly ‘make economy/finance be good’
Just wanted to say that these turned a of videos are very scary and real for someone who is 21 and looking to make my life better, thanks Atroic for the informative video that is way scarier than a horror film :)
Federal funds rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from other banks btw. Discount rate is what the fed charges for loans, although this doesnt happen frequently as they are considered aa lender of last resort. Besides that great video!
So basically, everyone should vote Trump so that he can just keep printing money, and then it'll also be his fault when the economy collapses. Wow thanks again Big A, this is why he's the marketing guy.
Hey uhh, editors. He means no win, not no lose, situations. He even corrected himself in the vod, but it didn't make it here. It was like that on the other video, too. Just making sure you don't misrepresent gun.
yo big A, i got timed out in your chat but i get it cause i was sus af cause of how drunk i was, Fire content. Youte poggers> if im being honest i aint watching this video till the morning cause im too drunk rn tooo appriecaate it but when im sober ill prob laugh my ass off caus e youre always fucking fire with the content keep it up king. P.S. If any chatters in unban forum say "uhhhh sorry i was drunk" it aint ruee cause they aint have the typos i doo. Anyways fucking fire content dude watch it properly when im sober in the morning gn famaammmm
When countries collapse from inflation the increase is usually in the 100s of thousands. For example, Hungry had trillions% inflation and didn't completely collapse in the 40s. Countries usually will collapse due to inflation when there's an outside force encouraging it, like with the Romans inflation was a very very small contributor to their downfall.
![HIWWHEE | OHM [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/OJJLtTLqLag/mqdefault.jpg)
I was incredibly impressed by this stream. I was expecting this to be about a particular Sonic the Hedgehog fetish, but instead learned about the slow death of the American Empire.
Yo it's shindigs!
An average empire lasts 250 years America is like 246 years old
@@orangechicken2262 Eh, I'd give it half of that at best for being an actually important empire. For how massive and omnipresent the US is, the time it took to reach peak US was somewhat short, aka it's all downhill from here.
Enjoy the good times while they last. They won't last forever.
@@LiveType Of course the fall of anything isn't instant and you get a short while to just sit their and watch
@@LiveType The peak was '91 all the way through the noughties. Russia was still a collapsed mess for most of the early half, China wasn't relevant like it is now, and the EU hadn't deepened continental economic links to the same degree. Then again, US power disparity in the nineties wasn't exactly sustainable, so...
Not the kind of inflation I was looking for. Great vid as always big A
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
@@moto2442 this
Nahhhhhhh
LOL
😧
This brings a whole new meaning to Atrioc Inflation
I wish I had died of a stroke before reading this
dude.
Nobody share this video with links, only by telling others to google "Atrioc Inflation"
@@Noah-lj2sg Exactly! And the fart part of it was just a typo of “fark”, which everyone knows is short for “farketing friday”.
Bruh
Had some questions after the video so I'm going to explore #inflation to get more information. Thanks big A
I heard that some site called Rule34 and DeviantArt has a lot of information on inflation
I hear twitter has some pretty interesting arguments about it sometimes
I can’t believe it, atrioc is finally famous enough to get spambots in his comment section
Just wanted to say that these types of videos are really fun and informative. Keep up the good work :)
If you liked the video I really recommend the vod, it’s on atrioc’s vod channel and it’s about 2 hours long
Legit such a helpful stream to have watched, love that Atrioc just talks about whatever is on his mind like this inflation and the dating problems of this generation from a while back. I learn so much.
If anybody reads this,
Does this US talk also apply to other 1st world countries in EU? I know my country is having a hard time with inflation too at the moment, will this only worsen as time goes on?
@@Zuignap I don't really know what I'm talking about but I'm assuming yes. I don't know the specific situations going on in those countries but unless someone in power takes the responsibility to combat inflation it will only get worse. Like that one guy was saying in the video, inflation was able to take down Rome, there's no reason it couldn't do the same to countries today.
@@Zuignap any country that has their economy tied to the US dollar, yes. Anyone else, indirectly yes because a collapsing america will most likely start wars or worse to stimulate the economy or divert attention from homeland issues etc
@@Fluffybunny242 i really hope you are wrong but it sounds plausible. What countries have their economy tied to US dollars?
@@Zuignap A lot of countries are connected and will be heavily affected if the US dollar falls, this is the reason the whole world felt the effects of the financial crisis in 2007.
Finally know how my government and economy will fall before me, thank you Inflatrioc!
it does not happen if do not see it
Wish the video was a bit longer this time around, the stream was incredibly informative
Yeah was one of those streams that kept my attention the full time
“This sounds bad for the McDonald’s dollar menu” 8:37
In my Indonesia, inflation rose dramatically in 1997-1998, this caused mass rioting and the collapse of the Suharto dictatorship, inflation breaks government
True but i think it was also massively affected by the fact that suharto has been president for way too long
@@bhadra3688 It was an IMF job too. Absolutely appalling work by them.
@@bhadra3688 inflation was what broke it, the populace were willing to comply as long as the economy was on the up, when it went down there were no reason to have the old dictator
@@yeetyaga5543 In fairness to the IMF, the currency peg Indonesia had prior to '98 (fixed to USD) wasn't sustainable at all. They could have definitely done better, but the same could have been argued for the Indonesian state (who arguably bear a much bigger responsibility to their own people than the IMF).
@@awijaya2116 yes.
Surprising to see this type of content from the same channel that brought glizzyhands clown memes but this is an important topic explained in a simple way. I wish more people were aware of the financial systems and economics we are inheriting. Talk about the federal reserve next!
Damn I didn’t think he’s was gonna explain THAT kind of inflation 😳😳
Even when I personally have known this was inevitably going to happen since the early 2010's, I really appreciate Atrioc explaining it in such a way that it makes sense to even those who have not learned about inflation and economics.
I never really had an easy way to explain this to my friends and family, now I finally have a video that really nails it home.
I feel actually worried, but at least I am a bit informed, so thank you.
I mean, youre not that informed lol, as someone getting a degree in economics this video is an oversimplification of an oversimplification that gets a lot wrong. But it is a nice launch pad if youre interested in econ I guess.
@@greed864 Just give it to me straight doc, how bad is it really?
@@hikikomori_3708 eh, looks grim but will probably be managed. My main 2 gripes w this vid/vod are the conclusions of a weigning America and some technical details. So the firdt thing some history, you have to take into account that the US came back from the great depression and became the dominant empire it is today, not to toot the already gigantic horn of American exceptionalism but the US is a pretty great country, if you look at debt to gdp weve seen these exact same numbers during the 2nd world war, wether another Roosevelt will come to bail us out is tough to say, but even if someone of his quality of leadership doesnt come the US is in a significantly better position than it was during the 2nd world war, and especially with rising tensions our allies dont seem to be losing faith. Like the US was in a cold war with the Soviets for 50 years before it eventually came out victorious, and even though it seems like the US is losing influence especially with the very shaky economy at the moment, its not like the US didnt have a lot of problems throughout the 1950s onwards, this is definitely the begining of a new cold war, but so far the US is 1-0 and China while a threat, doesnt have the track record nor influence to become the next hegemon.
And on the 2nd technical side, the inflation we're seing is 95% supply chain and production issues, if "money printing" truly was the case, wed be seeing similar levels of inflation in countries like Russia and Japan, but Japan if anything has deflation, and Russia due to their system of Autorarky also isnt getting majorly hit by their monetary policies. Out of all the excess money in the banking system, a very low proportion is actually trickling out into the wider economy, the only reason the domestic economy is still growing is because consumption and investment spending has switched to different specific markets. QE is basically a tool to manipulate yield spreads, i.e mumbo jargon aside, it manipulates the types of liquidity within the system, qe contrary to popular belief doesnt cause inflation, and the stimulus money has probably had some effect but its been negligible compared to the supply side crisis as it’s mostly gone into the luxury consumption side from what I can see. Vast majority of the excess money has gone into assets like houses, stocks, crypto etc. Crypto (a worthless thing at the moment) is basically the money going to rich people, i.e a transfer of wealth/ funging the money away from the recipiants of stimulus. This isnt too problematic, but an increase in housing and the capital markets is, due to cash being cheap and already inflated company valuations this leads to a lot of zombie companies which would collapse without 1. this excess capital, and 2. Cheap money/low interest rates, so this being inflated is quite an issue which will be difficult to solve as absolving these zombie companies will lead to unemployment, which might lead to more stimulus, which again leads to zombie companies and market inefficiences. But it could potentially be managed with direct government involvement, and a shift in both collected taxes and also already collected taxes, in the form of FDR style government job programs, where even though these zombie companies close, the negative effects like unemployment and a new found lack of production of whatever product the now defunct company was producing. I.e if someone was making cake decorations, a product only viable because of the markets position due to the already mentioned reasons, this person could work and make something the market simply doesnt make due to the lack of a profit motive (not even lack but maybe even subsidization) i.e roads bridges hospitals HOUSES BUILDINGS etc. In any case its quite a tricky predicament, which if not handeled properly will definitely lead to a recession bigger than 08, but its not impossible to handle 1, and 2 even then it shouldnt be as bad as the great depression and more over due to obstructionism and the now more locked version of governance, radical changes both for the bad and worse will be tricky to implement.
Tldr, its bad, its a 4/10 situation, or in other words a slightly less optimal position, but it isnt anything that'll end the economy and systems in place like the streamer got a lot of ppl believing.
@@Firelove7k I watched the vod, he seems to not get a good bit of stuff about quantitive easing, more over in this very video he said some questionable things, check my other comment above this one for some clarification
@@greed864 thats actually a really good explanation
Fun fact: the concept of inflation was conceptualized in feudal Japan by Miyazaki Futanari. Look up futanari inflation to learn more
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The last time the US had a debt to GDP ratio this high was after WWII. It is very possible to recover from such a high debt as was done over the course of 30 years in the past, but doing so will require some sacrifices to the policy agendas of both parties.
You saying we got a chance or is it time to move countries
@@yoqqen It's certainly possible to overcome it, but I believe that post-WWII politics were much less divided than they are today, meaning it is likely going to be very hard. Also, moving countries will likely not help in the microeconomic sense either because 1) the vast majority of developed countries have debt to GDP ratios similar to the US (106.70%) right now as well (Japan double the US at 237%) with only a few exceptions like Russia at 13.79%, Denmark at 33.61%, Norway at 36.75% and Sweden at 37.23%, and 2) If the US economy fails, the entire global economy fails everywhere as happened in 2008. Since the entire world has become so reliant upon the U.S. dollar and the U.S. financial system, a failure of the U.S. dollar and a significant downgrade in U.S. credit ratings as it defaults on foreign debt will unquestionably throw the entire world into a deep depression, including those countries with low debt to GDP ratios.
@@fairlyfactual451 thank you for the enlightenment, I’ve just learned I know nothing
true but after WW2 Europe was pretty much your bitch. I'm not aware how things are atm
As someone who is the finance industry and studied it is that this is a way bigger issue than I think many people realize. Big A did a great job breaking it down my only criticism is he said interest rates are 0 making money easier to borrow with no penalties and this is true for big banks/ corporations not really the general population because banks are still making a big profit margin on this even with the 0% rates
This has genuinely made more knowledge about this stuff thank you. Watching the stream segment for this is also great so I recommend to watch it to
5:45 What Atrioc forgot to mention here is that this drop in interest rates came after a massive increase in available resources after both the fall of the Soviet Union and the liberalization of a lot of the Chinese economy. This pushed down inflation rates to historic levels. This is the reason for the steady decrease in interest rates. Essentially, more and more resources and labour became available, which pushed down prices.
This trend is now reversing itself with the Russian invasion of Ukraine knocking out 2 of the world's biggest raw resource exporters and China collapsing internally. This is causing a resource crunch and thus requiring a hike in interest rates to make up for it. Creating more money when there is an increase in available resources is no issue. It is only when available resources decrease that there is a problem. Supply and demand need to be seen together, not individually. Creating new money increases demand, but if there is enough supply to match it, then there isn't an issue.
I enjoy how you are adding economics into your conversations in such an approachable way that talks about important topics. Keep it up Atrioc!
There's only one kind of inflation i'm interested in, Yes Atrioc! ;)
I came for inflation, but I stayed for inflation
GOATED comment
this is some real heat
This stream was an absolute banger, hope for more Prof G.H.
If you loose all your life savings in crypto you don't have to worry about inflation though 5Head
@@Noah-lj2sg I don’t think you read the comment
@@hhdddd4282 almost got me
@@Noah-lj2sg room temperature iq
@@Noah-lj2sg sowwy for being stupid
Clutch or kick generation is actually a banger
Exactly 10 mins for the ad revenue? This is a certified Brandon “The Glizzard Wizard” “Not piano fingers” Ewing
In my AP US history class kids could not understand why we couldn’t use dirt as money. And why we couldn’t print more money to make everyone rich.
but it would work tho
Only 30 years until they can become president and put those amazing strategies in action. Can't wait to be rich!
@@anthonyianmonday printing money to make everyone rich just makes money worthless, it's how you get Zimbabwe
@@anthonyianmonday it would work for about a month until the money becomes worthless and the economy is permanently fucked
@@mattp0576 no, just use the money?
So glad you actually made this into a youtube video, I know you were hesitant at first
Dude, came because of Hitman, admired because of inflation. Great talk, I guess we need more of this so newer people understand a bit of what is going on. Cheers from Brazil.
Isn't one of the reasons inflation was such a big deal for the Roman empire because the currency was represented by something tangible like gold? So each time you print money you effectively divide the value of what you printed since you aren't increasing the actual reserve. But we use Fiat currency now so what exactly does inflation mean? Does it only really mean anything on a global scale for exchange rates?
It means if the government does nothing for long enough they'll need a new fiat currency. For you, you better start making plans to make sure you don't hold fiat as your primary savings because that's going to become worthless over the next ~30 years.
However, there is something to be said that the US also owns most of its own debt. It's a weird concept if you think about it but it effectively means the number attached to the debt means basically nothing which is a super interesting case study because japan adopted that practice first and they seem to be doing just fine. In fact, due to their declining population inflation is effectively zero or even negative and has been for the past 20 years.
So the answer is: the current debt the US "owes" is effectively meaningless. Look at other indicators such as demand. Overall consumer demand shows no signs of slowing down. The moment it does is when real shit will start happening. This will likely be triggered by increased interest rates so again, look at demand as that's what determines pretty much everything.
TL;DR: Yes. Inflation can be bad for the domestic market as well as the international market.
Inflation means a rise in the general price level (and therefore the decrease of the value of a unit of money). Suppose the supply of money doubled. Holding goods produced constant, all prices would double and you are left with the exact same result - you can purchase exactly as many goods as you could before the infusion of money happened. If this is the case, what is the big deal with inflation?
As I see it, there are mainly two complications: 1) in doubling the money supply you often redistributed wealth. You do not "print" money and give it equally to everyone, and 2) prices are sticky - businesses cannot perfectly predict how an infusion of money will affect demand for their particular product. In effect this leaves periods where the markets no longer reflect supply and demand (remember that prices are decided by supply and demand). In other words there will be market inefficiencies (a cost to society). Typically, higher inflation gives longer periods of market inefficiencies. If inflation is "too high" (hard to put an exact number here, but some examples are Venezuela with inflation exceeding 1,000,000 % in 2018) then markets may be extremely inefficient or completely brake down. You could imagine that the rate at which markets adjust is perpetually slower than the rate at which prices change. In terms of inflation this is called hyperinflation.
It should be stressed that moderate inflation is not a worry. Deflation is viewed as being much worse.
@@LiveType I mean we probably shouldn't learn anything from Japan's economy. It's huge and all but their economy's been declining for the past 30 years
The modern equations for inflation unlike their predecesors takes into account money velocity, if I print a quadrillion dollars but never spend a dime of it on anything I havent actually increased the money supply, the majority of the money introduced through QE has gone into assets, thats why things like houses, crypto, stocks etc are seeing record inflation numbers. Besides that the majority of the US debt is owed to itself, and so a total collapse might not happen as if you for example cleaned my toilets and I promised to pay you back but never did, the work wouldve still been done, but a default would result in the US losing its AAA standards and foreign countries maybe trusting the US less, but even then without a real alternative if the US showed a change in policies that would stop debt from getting as high as it did Id predict trust being regained rather fast. In any case this video is gross oversimplification, maybe even missinformation, as it gets "money printing" and QE totally wrong, and leaves the impression of the US empire collapsing even though every fucking country on this planet is allied with the US.
@@greed864 love the analogies you've used! earnest. And forgive me for a basic reply.. but imo i think you missed an obvious detail. that the QE/inflation/global competition is entwined in beyond what i understand at least.
I just dont think that was the point he was actually focusing on. The "fixing" that was focused on was a way that politicians should stop exponential inflation instead of the bandaid solution of printing more money
This is solid, but it's worth noting that there is not just demand pull inflation (higher demand due to an increase in the monetary supply) going on, but cost push inflation (higher costs due to supply chain issues). Arguably cost push inflation is a bigger factor right now (as evidenced by many other countries seeing similar inflation rates to the US - Canada, pretty much all of Europe, India, etc).
Good point
I love that you can essentially watch all educational Atrioc videos twice. The first time to take in the information, and the second time to watch chat LMAO
Charles Munger is a interesting fellow. He thinks in decades in a industry that thinks in months.
Loved this video! Very informative. However, there was post on the reddit critiquing/bringing more nuance to Atrioc's argument and it would be great if he gave his thoughts on it during the next reddit recap.
This is pretty interesting, i found this video called sonic inflation, I’m gonna see if that has more info
Calling it right now this is going to be a million-view video for Big A
feels like this needed to be longer, unless existential dread was what you wanted us to leave with I guess
There are a couple of issues I have with this whole argument. The first is the purchasing power of the dollar (as in, what the dollar actually gets you). In traditional inflation, the cost of goods rises relative to the amount of "money being printed" (ie: paying $10,000 for a carton of eggs). However, if the cost of goods does not rise relative to inflation or even falls relative to inflation, then that mitigates the damages in a major way. (This tends to happen as a function of societal advancement - whether through technology, automation processes, etc.). The second thing is just... We have more people and more goods. That requires more money. If the money supply remained fixed, money itself would become scarcer, making it harder to acquire goods in the first place - which would tank the economy.
That is also linked to inflation with the cost of living increases being way above and salary increases or minimum wage increases. People are poorer now with more money than 10-20 years ago because of the cost of living increases. Power costs (gas and electric) are going through the roof here in the UK, but milk is going to remain stable. Doesn't change the fact people will have less money. During the pandemic, where the majority of the additional cash for printed, the top 5 companies gained a huge amount of wealth whilst everyone else suffered. Inflation and interest rates are going up and we are for sure going to hit a huge depression.
It doesn't matter how much money is printed if it all sits in Billionaires bank accounts offshore, while they exploit a workforce who can barely afford essentials.
My favorite vid yet. Thank you for the topic!
Great thumbnail and title, I feel like this is the kind of video that blows up
If you want another hilarious financial story about Munger, check out the munger dorm. This dude is promising to give a huge amount of money to a college to solve their student housing crisis… on the condition that they use the money to construct a giant 4500 student megadorm he designed himself. He doesn’t have any architectural training, multiple architects resigned out of shame, and more than 90% of the rooms will not have access to sunlight. Undergrad prison block.
New opinion by billionaire investor "building with no windows actually good!!!!1!!!"
Title yoinked from the vods channel
Instead of giving the politicians the pleasure of voiding my entire net worth, I voided it all myself by investing in Shiba Inu. By learning to live on the streets before the masses join me, I will be able to establish myself as a head figure after the economic doomsday.
The guy asking Atrioc if crypto is the best option during a depression… bless your heart
I was there for the stream and I feel like the "what does this mean for you and me?" Would've been pretty important to include. Still, good video!
Print one 32 trillion dollar bill, keep the change. Work smarter, not harder.
Very succinct. Killin it man
Inflation is when gas price is a whole dollar more than it was per gallon when I started driving 2 years ago
Great video, everything you said made sense to me and my amature finance nerd brain.
One thing that should be stressed is that inflation = rising prices, this is natural and almost necessary in small amounts to encourage spending, the problem is when it gets out of control. This is so important that regulating it is pretty much the sole aim of some central banks like the European Central Bank . The devaluation of currency is a natural side effect, but it's not a problem in and of itself. Another thing to keep in mind is that printing money also doesn't always necessarily equal inflation or currency devaluation, it all depends on growth and current market conditions, which is why it's okay sometimes to print more money during a depression, the problem is when you don't slow down after because it's almost impossible politically.
So Important!! Thanks man
YES ATRIOC YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
This is a very great ideal for you exactly making a video because I think you're the best to do this. And I'm glad you made this video. I might show this to my class one day
"...picture bugs bunny, now imagine the goverment prints a trillion carrots, now he is Big Cgungus"
1:55 I'm pretty confident this said populist, maybe populace, but not population.
Been a while since i was bummed a video wasn’t longer. Great video big a :)
If you want more info about fast inflation rates search up Sonic inflation. it helps alot
i’m glad everyone’s on exactly the same incorrect page here
These serious deep dives into economy are honestly some of my favourite Atrioc content. Love hearing someone who's relatively informed explain these principles in easy to understand and entertaining ways. Props to big A!
Cool video! I Think Atrioc gets it wrong/backwards a couple of times here as pointed out by other commenters. What I haven't seen anyone comment on is the subject of the national debt, which Atrioc brings up. TL;DR: The national debt is not a problem.
The national debt is simply a record of how much money the government has generated and infused into the economy. When Atrioc says "The best way to make this debt not a problem is to inflate the currency so much that it is not worth that much", he gets it backward. The government can always pay its debt because it is a currency issuer, and so paying down the debt is never a problem. This is fundamentally different than our private debt (we cannot pay it back in our own made currency like monopoly money). US States, however, are currency takers just like the rest of us.
Paying down the national debt, or increasing the national debt could be problematic becaues it could cause inflation/deflation. Imagine that the government ran a budget surplus by having tax revenue exceed spending and buying back government debt (treasuries). Then, in effect, there would be less money in society (because either tax revenue has increased of government spending has decreased). This is deflationary and slows growth. If the Fed "printed money" to buy back treasuries / didnt issue any more treasuries and payed off the outstanding debt this could be inflationary. This isn't really a bad thing though, it only shows that the national debt is a useful instrument (or rather government treasuries are the instrument) in monetary policy.
mispells is just the atrioc signature at this point
This is really cool. you should make this a series of explaining complicated things
9:59 video time. Atrioc the goat.
Some of this is (quite) incorrect... for one, interest rates/'mopney printing/ are set by the Federal reserve which is *independent* from the government - meaning unlike South America (where many central banks are not independent), it ain't possible for people to vote themselves into money, nor is it the decision of the party in charge to keep interest rates low to stimulate growth. That's all on the Fed (which the President can ask to do things like raise interest rates, but not order).
Great point! I agree some of this information is incorrect, but what can you expect from a streamer trying to explain something like inflation to a crowd that probably doesn't know a lot about it. It would have been nice if he was correct about everything, but I think he did a good job of just hitting a few points so you can generally understand a certain topic
@@Noah-lj2sg right independent just means they aren’t controlled top down by the president, congress can pass policy to change their objectives but they will always be roughly ‘make economy/finance be good’
Probably my favorite video of yours, keep up the good work big A
6:20 lmao no shot you kept this in haha
6:18 We need to fix inflation, New York can’t stand to lose two towers again
This video genuinely scared the fuck out of me
Ive been super anxious about entering the job market but this video has motivated me ngl
Might want to spellcheck those highlighted phrases and quotes Kaage
I know about inflation porn just enough without big A
This economy Sunday is really depressing
one of the best explanations of inflation oat
"president Jake Paul" Please do not make this into an actual prophecy, we're already doomed enough as it is.
7:43 alex oh buddy
The shitty part is that even if you're not American, this will still affect you. When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold.
0:13 this man really thinks we don't know what Canada is
Just wanted to say that these turned a of videos are very scary and real for someone who is 21 and looking to make my life better, thanks Atroic for the informative video that is way scarier than a horror film :)
6:18 *Bro* I had to do a double take on that one
clutch or kick generation is proof that no chat is funnier than atriocs
If Munger thinks we're doomed, probably right
Wow, finally someone as old as Atrioc.
I want more of this
TLDR: we are fucked
shoutout to that one guy in the chat who wants to become a dentist and not a zookeeper
This video fills me with despair
Seriously though, we probably shouldn't kick the can again, maybe? No? Let's kick it.
Yikes, the same shit that happened with the depression and the recession. Hope it all goes to shit and recovers before I get out of college.
Hasan watching this video was a frustrating experience
Welp, my existential dread for the future as a young adult has only grown. Fuck.
"if we let president jake paul fix it" made me lose it
God I fucking love your content so much, literally all of it, HOLY FAKIN SHITE
Love you Atrioc ❤️
Federal funds rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from other banks btw. Discount rate is what the fed charges for loans, although this doesnt happen frequently as they are considered aa lender of last resort. Besides that great video!
So basically, everyone should vote Trump so that he can just keep printing money, and then it'll also be his fault when the economy collapses. Wow thanks again Big A, this is why he's the marketing guy.
yoo atrioc that's a fire shirt you're dripped out for real 🥶
Hey uhh, editors. He means no win, not no lose, situations. He even corrected himself in the vod, but it didn't make it here. It was like that on the other video, too. Just making sure you don't misrepresent gun.
yo big A, i got timed out in your chat but i get it cause i was sus af cause of how drunk i was, Fire content. Youte poggers> if im being honest i aint watching this video till the morning cause im too drunk rn tooo appriecaate it but when im sober ill prob laugh my ass off caus e youre always fucking fire with the content keep it up king.
P.S. If any chatters in unban forum say "uhhhh sorry i was drunk" it aint ruee cause they aint have the typos i doo. Anyways fucking fire content dude watch it properly when im sober in the morning gn famaammmm
That's great and all but my balloon is still deflated, bad tutorial
This reminds me of honika at Steven mckenzies house, also she took the Pontiac in the divorce
When countries collapse from inflation the increase is usually in the 100s of thousands. For example, Hungry had trillions% inflation and didn't completely collapse in the 40s. Countries usually will collapse due to inflation when there's an outside force encouraging it, like with the Romans inflation was a very very small contributor to their downfall.