2024 predictions based on 2023 reflections

Penny Townsend and Oliver recap 2023 in 20 minutes, covering a range of topics (naturally including AI one prediction we definitely got right!), but also data, working patterns, sustainability and more.
We look at what we got right and wrong (also using some assistance from Claude.ai) from our previous predictions for 2023 video which you can find here • AI and Tech prediction...
So what do transformation leaders and technology architects need to be thinking about as we move into 2024? What can be planned for / pre-empted? What trends do we see continuing? What will change? Less uncertainty than before? More coming in the next episode that will land in early January but this gives you a starting point.
Here are the longer summaries that I mentioned on the call but didn't talk through all of:
So as I said amusingly (given how much we talked about the impact of GenAI in 2023!) I’ve got the pro version of Claude to create a summary of what we covered last year (and also to recap some wikipedia content about 2023 as well:
The key technology predictions made by the panellists included:
A continued focus on large language models like GPT-3 and the need to address issues around intellectual property, education, and ethics related to AI.
Increased consideration of sustainability in technology decisions, but a lack of concrete data and standardised metrics to truly measure impact. Risk of superficial "greenwashing" without these.
Potential refocusing on some technology basics like open source software, data management, and integration amid the hype around concepts like the metaverse and web3.
Legacy systems presenting growing costs and security risks that may finally drive some modernization in 2023 after years of deferral.
An explosion of APIs requiring more API management discipline and event-driven architectural approaches to rationalise and integrate APIs.
Greater constraints on resources (financial, labour, geopolitical) forcing a ruthlessness and focus on efficiency in technology spending and making companies show their "true colours".
So in summary, a mix of revisiting some technology fundamentals while also addressing emerging issues like sustainability and the responsible use of AI.
AI and Large Language Models
Discussion around intellectual property, education, and ethical considerations with the rise of models like GPT-3.
Potential need to rethink IP laws, fair use, and what skills should be focused on in education.
Sustainability
Growing consideration of sustainability in technology, but gaps remain around concrete data and measurement.
Risk of "greenwashing" without standardized ESG metrics.
Climate change driving very real business impacts that may spur change.
People and Culture
The "great resignation" and its effect on the workforce.
Concerns around inequality, mental health, purpose and trust in public institutions.
Predictions around increased constraints financially and on resources in 2023.
Technology
Hype around concepts like metaverse and web3 vs refocusing on technology basics like open source, data, integration.
Legacy system costs and security risks driving some modernization.
API explosion requiring more API management and event driven approaches.
Technology
Advances in AI lead to major international summit at Bletchley Park on managing risks. But deepfake audio and imagery also starts being used in harassment and scams.
NHS COVID tracing app is discontinued. Vaccines become available commercially with age limits raised.
Business
Multiple retailers like Wilko go into administration leading to store closures and job losses. But some brands get rescued or reopen.
Strikes heavily impact sectors like rail, leading to deal between RMT union and train companies.
Banking giant HSBC plans to leave Canary Wharf offices. Salmon Scotland steelworks gets government funds.
Ollie’s Tech list:
OpenAI saga - was this just PR all along or were there concerns about Q* - we’ll come on to that in next episode.
Elon swearing about his advertising customers of X
Andressen H of A16Z going somewhat off the rails on ESG and GRC/ Governance