The balance shifting also works on the strategic/ operational level as well. You can see Russians shifting pressure from Chasiv Yar to New York/ Toretsk, to Pokrovsk to Selidove to Kurakhove to Vuhlerar sector. When encountering too much resistance in one place they shift resources somewhere else. In fact the current offensive from Hyrnik Kurakhove sector to Bogoyavlenka shows a high level coordination. I’d be interested to see the analysis of that once that operation matures.
Well the Russians switched to Attritional Warfare doctrine by the book at the end of 2022 when they realized that this war is not Maneuver Warfare and cannot be fought by large maneuvers due to constant recon and intelligence capabilities up above (drones, sattelites). And according to the definition of Attritional fighting this is exactly what you should do - lots of shallow attacks to create chaos in the enemy defenses, when they try to plug a hole and start to stabilize the line switch your focus on another axis/point of attack somewhere else. They will create too much pressure on their logistics and waste so many resources by doing that, that the defenses will eventually start to collapse slowly but surely. We can see fruits of following this doctrine by the book on places like Kurakhove, Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar and Pischane (near Kupiansk). When UA started the Kursk offensive they put a large amount of strain to their resources and logistics even more and everything is starting to crumble
"the Russians aren't capable of organising offensive operations larger than a battalion" or maybe concentrating forces when the battlefield is transparent to a depth of 10 or 20km due to pervasive ISR and long range precision fires/strike drones are readily available (essentially piloted guided munitions) is a bad idea
Which actually proves the point that the Russians aren't capable of organizing and coordinating offensive ops, basically "movement to contact", of sufficient scale and depth to accommodate that reality. Of course, neither can the Ukrainians, except for where they catch the Russians off guard such as Kharkiv and Kursk. Thus, the static, WWI style of limited tactical scale of the character of the fighting such as shown in the video. This analysis looks like it was from 1914 not 2024...
@obsidianjane4413 I thought the artillery cover of both actors made large concentrations risky too. Rocket artillery has extended the area that can be threatened.
Contrary to your opening statement, Russia seems to be increasingly more capable and efficient in carrying out operations at a level above the battalion.
Exactly correct. I think it is a shame because there is some good info here but unforuntately many of these analysis channels fall to the same old talking points far too often.
The author is obviously very knowledgeable and experienced and his content deserves praise, however we are all slaves to our personal bias and he is no exception.
It's also Napoleon concept of dynamic pressure , which any general or judoka worth anything understand press where the opponent can be put off balance , then follow immediately by exerting pressure on the opening created it's less about one hit as a succession of linked moves creating a destructive dynamism
nah this video is bad advice, just generalizing and armchair historianism. he just says the word "tactical" and makes you think hes smart, also his slavic accent. in reality what they need on the ground are just drones, dirtbikes, and cheap chinese nightvision.
@@AckzaTV o7 General TH-cam! So we’ll win if we put drone operators on dirt bikes 🚴 and slap night vision googles on them? Genius, you should take over from Syrsky:) Honestly those things are surely good to have but the problem is 1. Where to put them 2. When to put them there 3. How will you put them there to name a few things. If you ever led just a squad you’d know how hard it is to manage just 10 guys in the field and in peacetime exercises. It only get harder with platoon, company, battalion et cetera. Very easy to get overwhelmed and with modern systems to be overdosed with information.
@@gostan2718 The video is far from garbage. What makes you think that the Kursk offensive was nothing more than an attempt to prevent a complete Russian breakthrough in the Vuhledar or the Pokrovsk direction by redirecting the Russian reserves? Hence the North Koreans arriving in the Kursk area?
bruh fr, they thought that russia will divert their troops into kursk, but what they did instead is just double the troops and stream rolled trough multiple fortress city
@@seanl7856 there is no evidence of North Koreans military formations in Kursk, all we have is South Korean intel spokesperson say so (i.e. source-washed CIA narrative), and some satellite images of a site not in Kursk
The Ukrainian high command refuse to send reinforcement in Tavria and Khurakove direction due to the also critical situation happening in Pokrovsk, they fear a Russian assault to the strategical city. Khurakove and Vuhledar are set to die when Kursk offensive started, as it draws the much needed reserves from all other direction hence the massive breakthrough happening in Selidove, Vuhledar and Terni atm where Ukraine brigades fall one by one. As for the 3 day breakout it was a disaster, minimal numbers of Ukrainian left the city as the Russian pummel the evacuation points 24/7 with artilleries, FABs, and even TOS flamethrower rockets. Meanwhile Russian actually receive minimal casualties at that time since they don't even move at all, it was just the drones flying over Vuhledar to call the shots, the elements of the 5th guard and 36MRB just sitting quietly at the flank while artillery work on Ukrainian position. I think around Vinik dismissal we started to hear news about massive amount of soldiers from the 72nd surrendering inside the city. As for the outside element of the 72nd, the Ukrainian command simply can't relief them due to the shortage of recruitable manpower and men at the frontline
Pokrovsk is strategic? If you zoom out, it's name doesn't appear, so I wouldn't call it strategic. Achieving strategic objectives lead to the furthering of geopolitical objectives, like the enemy surrendering and so on.
@@ArchOfficial Pokrovsk is literally the main supply hub for the region as all roads and train rails cross there, those who control it will have a massive edge in the region. It couldn't get more strategic even if you try, and the Ukrainians know this. That is why Syrsky hesitate to move troops to help Khurakove salient right now since the Selidove breakthrough that happen a few days ago threaten to half encircle Pokrovsk from the South. This is also the case on why Vuhledar fell, as well as ongoing massive breakthrough in Kupyansk, and with many other current breakthroughs from the Russian side
I love how you wrote a wall of text of unverified information, as i know for a fact the majority of 72nd was withdrawn in early october (and are now resting/reconstituting in Kherson region) But you do you, bud
The Russians are using 3 armies in one coordinated attack north of Ugledar and south and north of Kurahovo AS WE SPEAK. They used 4 brigades in the capture of Avdeevka. There were NO meat waves at Bakhmut
Great video, I whish though that you would highlight the things you are talking about so that it would be easier to find the place, unit or direction u are talking about. TY. Hope to see more of your videos
Interesting points from a new content creator. Good start, however maintaining a strict neutrality and constantly stating the actual facts devoid of propaganda is absolutely essential. Statements like 'Russian agreesion' is factual; however claiming it as 'unprovoked' is nonsensical propaganda...
@@joyholtzhausen8976 but he is right. Aggression being unprovoked is very arguable. Just because you are willing to handwave away opposing reasoning doesn't make it dissappear. Fairytale logic of demonizing ones enemies rarely leads to objective facts.
No lol it wasn’t provoked. It all started when Vladimir Putin lost his puppet president in Ukraine by a coup that was carried out by the Ukrainian people who wanted to divert from Russian culture and values. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the only way to control the ex Soviet republics were by placing puppets, go look at Chechnya, back in 1994 they tried their best to fight for their independence but now they’ve been turned into Russian dogs. Do you think Ukraine wants to end up like them? The Russian government and Vladmir Putin are liars, they lied about Russian troops in Crimea, they lied about Russian troops in Donbass. Wake up dude, I once used to believe their b.s propaganda songs
let me guess, they drone the shit out of what they want to attack for two weeks, then they shell defensive hard points for a couple more days and 2 hours before the attack they start a massive artillery barrage while they outflank the city from two sides while another assault group moves into the center? they have been doing this shit since Bakhmut
This is called preparing the battlefield. It's standard every semi professional military does it. The difference is how good is the rest prepared - combined Armes Air(drones), Infanterie, artillery, intelligence.
If the Russian army can not co ordinate above the level of a batallion how are they attacking across a 1100km front? Random? Sherlock Holmes: the simplest explanation is usually the correct one Deduction: the Russians can coordinate at army group / front level
@@IonBrad-d4c Except they did so in this War in the first 3 weeks capturing 1/5 of Ukraine. Ups... you haven't seen that did you? Yes, that's the point! Not to see
@@cristitanase6130 Surprise factor + previous presence of Russian army there. In Donetsk and Luhansk the Russia army is since 2014 (without insignia, without admitting). In Kiev, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Harkov they tried and got fried. If not for the huge natural barrier (Dniepr), Russians would have run further East in disorder ...
Thanks for sharing this analysis. What prevents RUS from conducting offensive operations above the Battalion level? Is it a command and control issue? Interesting stuff.
Thanks for providing an analysis of how the Russian military actually conducts attacks. It's very interesting. We've entered a new phase of warfare that reminds me of the later parts of WWI. Instead of trying for huge, sweeping attacks offensives are made up of smaller attacks with very clearly defined, local objectives. It's more of a crawling offensive rather than some mad dash.
Very well done and educational video. I have been looking for technical commentary like this. Hope to see more, and that you are able to cut through all the noice of propagandistic and shallow commentary. You were recommended on my feed, so seems the algorithm found you. Hope it spread the word. I will recommend to friends as well and post in appropriate forums
Back when the 2022 war started I assumed the russians would be working on their "deep battle" georgii isserson model, but they proved to have insufficient coordination above the battalion level to attempt such a thing. I am still wondering if thier use of battalion tactical groups, what with div and brig level assets pushed down to battalions, is a result or cause of their chronic leadership dysfunction and atrophy. In any case, as the war dragged on and ISR via drones and other things became ubiquitous, and better integrated with artillery and other support, even accumulating a company to stage an attack became extraordinarily risky, forcing attacks to be meat-wave trickles. The trend of large attacks this past year I believe was partly a result of Ukrainian artillery and ISR starvation, and increasing pressure for the russians to be in as best a position as possible before the US election and other potential countdowns. One practice they have retained at an operational level as you point out here, is the use rolling successive concentrated attacks across different points of the front, instead of such simultaneously. This is a core aspect of isserson's deep battle and was common practice during wwii even when the soviets were not yet capable of exploiting their successes. Good video, hope to hear more from you, subbed.
The reason for BTGs was that during peacetime the manpower of the Russian army was drastically reduced while still having a large proportion of artillery and heavy weapons. As such, BTGs made sense with smaller amount of infantry relying on a disproportionately large amount of firepower. However now that the manpower has been significantly increased, the Russians have switched to larger units.
@@communist754 I'm not talking about meatwaves as they are popularly conceived and misunderstood, Im talking about the actual ones in which squads were force-fed across no-mans-land to deal with obstacles and dig positions, forcing the ukrainians to respond and expose themselves to russian supporting assets.
@@gbabayan Yes, while they do have an advantage in providing an exceptional amount of firepower organically, they also have disadvantages in having enormous and complicated logistical footprints for their manpower, and it is clearly evident the problems that occurred with russian logistics in 2022. If they really wanted to save money in peacetime I feel like shoving div assets to batts, instead of just practicing some type of cooperation with attached units that can be tasked from higher levels is kinda silly. In any case, I am not questioning why they switched too and then from BTGs even if I think they were not a great idea even for russia's problems. I haven't seen any significant evidence either way, but I speculate that on top of the normal level of corruption and dysfunction, the BTG structure may have contributed to some insulatory practices among their officers, in which feeling that they had everything they needed organically, they would be less likely to cooperate with other units to their own detriment.
@stug41 isn't that the default modus operandi of both sides? I think meat wave is an egregious misnomer, because instead of a massive manpower concentration and WWI-style infantry wave attacks implied in the name you have individual groups of up to ten people dispersed as thinly as possible and relying on speed and maneuverability rather than mass and momentum. If anything, that's the polar opposite of human wave - it's a human trickle.
Excellent educational content. In future I'd love if you add precise time stamps for date and time, when each particular attack happened. I know it's more workload, but you are getting views now. Good Luck!
So to conclude, based on your high level estimation - what is the strength ratio at the beginning and what is the casualty ratio at the end of the battle?
Good question. Accordin to my rough estimates, the combined force ration was 7:1 to the Russians at the beginning of the battle (early Aug). Regarding casualties I have zero information. If I must give a rough estimate, I woudl say that the Ukrainians lost altogether one brigade worth of human losses while the Russians one and a half. But his is just a rough estimate.
@ thank you for your response... seeing as this opportunity to talk to an unbiased professional is preciously rare, i would ask one more question: Do you believe it true that there is nothing stopping Russians advancing to the Dneper once they break through these strongholds in southern Donbass? I keep hearing that they are only accelerating, but there's propaganda from both sides... Greetings from Qatar!
@@VersusAllOdds The fortifications get less and less as Russia pushes west. The battles in the Donbas area for the last 2 and a half years where essentially battling through the main fortified lines which are extensive and these were built up over a period of 8+ years.
@@VersusAllOdds There is the Ukrainian army, and fortifications are not very difficult to build if you actually want to. Strategic-level Breakthroughs are probably not possible unless one side completely collapses, but this is not likely to happen soon.
@ i also think so... i think the hype of "if Russians break through this line it's over" is mostly a myth. It's a grinding, attrition warfare at it's worst.
˝Russians didn´t launch Meat Wave Assault SINCE the Battle of Bakhmut...˝ , ok , thanks buddy, ALL I needed to know so I don´t waste my time watching a 40 min video. BTW, I am still waiting to see a SINGLE video of ˝FAMOUS˝ Russian mean wave assault in this war. Must be that they are forced to do this cuz they run our of shovels. And I am curious to find out YOUR definition of ˝meat wave assault˝. Just kidding, I am good. Sayonara!
@@MarkTakacs-u1w i think i heard that prisoner units were used as recon troopers / canon fodder to discover enemy positions in artyovmosk and were interpreted as "meat wave assaults.
@@TheGushroomThat's probably false. Prisoners had high rate of attrition, but there were not prisoners units. Prisoners served with volunteers and some old guards. Source: interview with former Russian soldier.
@@MarkTakacs-u1w You are claiming Russian have lost a battalion for capturing Konstantinovka. It's usually assumed that a military unit loses it's ability to fight after losing about 1/3 of it's strength. For a battalion it would be something around 100-150 men. Do you have any proof of Russians losing that much?
I belive it is important to note that russian units are one or two scale higher than their Ukr. counterparts on the frontline. Companies against regiments Battallions against brigades
This is normal, though. US doctrine also prefers the attacking unit to be at least one echelon larger than the defenders, and conversely that an attack can be held by a defending unit one echelon lower with adequate support. The problem for the Ukrainians is the lack of reserves (in the form of uncommitted units behind the frontline) to mount counterattacks.
i liked how you explained everything and i really apreciated the theory you show at the beggining of the video (i tried to compared it with HoI IV, not the best but i think it helps me to understand that)
Many of the POWs would be injured lads. 800 does not seem unreasonable to me if we are assuming a full battalion deployed to the town, that 100-200 guys getting out and that the Russians were working hard to cut the lines of supply and evacuation from the stronghold.
One of the best videos I have seen on the SMO. The battle level analysis is much superior to anything else out there. Please release more videos on the other battles such as Popasna, Artemivsk, Avdiivka, Mariupol & the 2023 ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
@@aquila3958and then he proceeds to exclusively name Russian wins or Ukrainian failures lol, bro's not even hiding it How about a video about the battle of Balaklyia? Or the 6th Tank Regiment being annihilated at Skybyn north of Kyiv?
Due to the complex political nature of the many combatants and their professed levels of participation in this war it seems what in many cases might be poor military decisions are probably military commanders following standing orders that operate well politically but poorly militarily. This seems to afflict both sides. Of course these political orders, on the face of them ridiculous, are usually vital for grand strategic purposes.
Good insights, but I don't really get the point of exploring some specific tactic when RuAF offensive continues over a year, where they have a strong fire capabilities which UAF can not suppress (Guided bombs) and they willing to send nearly all of they reserves without a second thought about the future. If it was only in case of Vuhledar, I guess it worth to consider that specifically, but it continues since October 11 2023 in a whole frontline. UAF just don't have that much man- and firepower, trading territory for time is all they had left
interesting video, although the loss numbers are highly questionable. losing a battalion for a small town with that kind of superiority in firepower seems super unlikely.
Cool, Ukrainians no casualties, Russians destroyed 3 times, Kursk US PR offensive, good for weakening US lines. RF apparently has over million casualties while Ukr has those 30k. Those PR lines regarding fails, while giving seeming praise, oh by the way the ywere wiped 3 times yea lol. Things arent extra rosy for RF, but intentionally giving away political messages, like the whole thing was unprovoked by the US at all. Mr. Takács or Tkáč should return to weaving instead of giving US POV unless Mr. Weaver actually lives in the US, if so, that would make sense, but the pronunciation seems rather from the Downlands. While it is better that you have some understanding of things, which is quite a difference from most commentators, PR filler isnt interesting having to suffer it through and waste time on.
Carl von Clausewitz was an officer in the Russian Tsar's Army during the Napoleonic Wars, and Carl vonClausewitz was of East German (Prussian ethnicity) although he did get commissioned as an officer in the Russian Army by the Russian Tsar. The philosophy of Carl von Clausewitz leans heavily on Hegelian dialectics and Carl von Clausewitz's dialectical method of thinking was popular in many Marxist-Leninist countries including the USSR Soviet Union, the DDR East Germany, and Maoist China. Basically, it's all about "dialectical materialism" for Leninist countries and Carl von Clausewitz uses a Hegelian dialectical method of reasoning in his writings that is similar to the dialectical reasoning that was used by Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin.
The reason for Kursk offensive is for politic. Zelen knew Trump highly will win. At what he and everyone expect, on day one Trump would immediately force Ukraine to sign a peace treaty and that mean very likely they will have to give a way capturing territory. This position is very bad for him because there is no way Zelen couldn't refuse US demand. If US out, EU will out and they will fight alone. Because of that, he was stubborn to keep Kursk as long as he can until Trump get in the house. Then if US force Russia and Ukraine to sign a treaty, there will be a big No No from Putin because he himself also can't give away Russia territory. Hence, US will have to continue to Aid Ukraine because while it's very easy to force Ukraine to sign, it's not for Russia. In Zelen calculation, if US in Trump's hand, still support him, he will retreat force from Kursk and declare it's a tactical victory because they were able to draw Russia Troop from other fronts while obviously it was not. A military disaster but political victory.
Biggest issue of this war, is that Russia started as a pretty much sh**t tier army but quickly transformed and while lucking many things, it gained crucial experience about modern conflict. News that are not good for Europe.
The Ukrainians took a gamble in Kursk to relieve pressure in Donbas but it appears to have failed because Russia had deeper manpower and material reserves than Western analysts led the Ukranians to believe. Russia is now advancing in Donbas at a faster rate because of this failed gamble. In all honesty Kursk was only a PR victory for Ukraine and the territory captured holds little other strategic value hence was lightly defended. What is needed is more moderate expectations of either side and more cautious assessments of motives and intentions rather than these big grand announcements.
It would be interesting to see what would happen to that side of the internet when things went bad to Ukraine. They like to boast about how the entire NATO industrial might is going to outmatch Russia because it only had Soviet stocks which were depleting. But they didn't realise that Russia also had allies. Currently, Ukraine is dealing with Iranian drones, North Korean artillery shells, and Chinese technology. Worse still, unlike the European countries which could send most of its equipment to Ukraine, the main NATO power, the US couldn't afford to send too much equipment to Ukraine since it still had China to contend with on Asia. The situation became potentially unfavourable in the next year when you considered that perhaps Russia's stockpiles are depleting because they are forming new Brigades which needed equipment. With how many European nations had depleted their own stocks, I suppose that the situation could only get worse for Ukraine from this point.
NATO countries have free media which hold government failures and leaders to account! Russia has ONLY state controlled media, which simply parrots Kremlins narratives!
@@tadoshka5170 The EU alone has an economy of 20T USD compared to Russia 2 Trillion Germany per year makes 4 million cars while Russia makes 700k cars , the UK has the second largest aircraft industry in the world I mean Russia has committed 40% of it's federal budget to Ukraine while the west on average commits 0.8% of the budget so Europe has a lot more room to go up. If the EU spent 7% of GDP on protecting Ukraine that would equal around 1.5 Trillion USD or 75% of the Russian GDP , with that money Europe would quickly overtake Russia in military production.
@@sababugs1125 See Russia has 1 factory to make cars. It makes 700k cars. Germany has 10 car factories they make 4million cars. Good. Russia has 10 Factories making artillery Shells. They make over 3 million shells a year USA, EU, NATO have 5 factories for artillery Shells. They make around 1.2 million shells a year. See. Your GDP doesnt matter when it comes to millitary production. Also Russia spends around 32% of its "Federal Budget" on its military Fun Fact USA spends around 27.4% of its "Federal Budget" on military. So i dont see any big differences here. "If the EU spent 7% of GDP on protecting Ukraine that would equal around 1.5 Trillion USD", So why havent they dont this? What are they waiting for? We all know they are not ready for the inflation and price hikes that will come with that decision. There is difference between GDP nominal and GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) It costs US 1000$ to buy a bolt, and 90k for bushings. The same bolt costs 10$ in Russia. So if Russia and US got 1000$, US can buy 1 bolt, Russia can buy 100 bolts. This is accounted for in GDP PPP. Russia is ranked 4th with 7b$. Purchasing Power accounts for how much you can buy with same amount of money. So imagine you are in US and you buy items for 37T$. You go to China and you can buy the same items for 18T$. For Russia the 2T$ nominal for Russia might seem small, but that is actually equivalent to 7T$ in PPP. As for Germany 4.7T$ nominal and 6T$ in PPP.
Good beginig and poor ending. Could be a good tactical/educational video but nevertheless everything went down to "russian propoganda" and "unprovoked agression". Still, it is not a bad analyze and quite interesting lecture. Would like to see sometheing like this in the future
They focus on the center, they make pincer and encirclement, but the real main attack is from the center,,, remember the word,,, broken center is a broken army.
Sir I have maybe stupid question but I would be happy if you answer me - why was Vuhledar so important town for Russians to capture it, while at the same time was EXTREMELY small in area? That town was maybe home to more than 10K people, but area of that town is very small. But it was not at all easy to capture it for the Russians. That thing is not logical to me. Keep up good work, I like your style of videos.
Wide open fields of fire out front and anything that can be seen can be killed. The Russians had to work their way around the flanks. That took a looooong time.
There are actually a lot of reasons. First as the main one is Ugledar is a goddamn pain in the ass. It's a town on the slightly higher bank of the river than has high rise building, is surrounded by wide open fields and was heavily fortified since 2014 I believe. It's a very strong fortified position. The second reason follows from the first one - it's location. It wedges right between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. It's troublesome, because the town could serve as a spring board for Ukrainian offensive operations to cut southern supply lines. There's also a little discussed fact that I believe 10 or 15 km south-east of it there's an important railway that can't be used, because thanks to Ugledar it's squarely within range of ukrainian artillery. This two things are the reasons why until recently that railroad was blocked by a giant 10 km long armoured train and another section south of it was constructed. Now it can be used properly and greatly ease logistics in Novorossia. And the third reason that we're seeing right now - it allowed to move south of Kurahovo Inbetween ukrainian lines and exploit the fact that they were meant to stop attacks from the south, not from the east. Generally land size and population talk are all for propaganda. What's really important are strategic points. Ugledar was one such point.
Opne a map. Check where Vulhedar is. When it fell, the Ukranian positions behind it fell quickly and now Kurakhove (The headquarters of Donbass front is in a couldroun. It was a city which provided vantage point. It had high rises which saw Russian movement from far away and they were prepared for attacks. But when Vulhedar fell to Russians. Now they had the vantage point and can see far into Ukrainian positions and use that to their advantage while moving troops/attacking. etc.
The People disliking the videe are those who don't like truth and want to be feed with lies, thanks for your analysis mate. Russia is learning and is becoming one of the most capable military out there with modern warfare experience
@@ffffuchs A vatnik is a quilted warrior's clothing worn under armor. Yes, Russians are warriors, and Ukrainians are peasants and have no chances and vatniks.
I think its hard to attack more than battalion cause its easy to be discovered. Its hard to concentrate big ammount of units. Russians are struggle with all satelites of NATO,and intelligence of NATO. Maybe they use brigade or division in attack but on all wide of front. Then this division divide on brigade,than on battalion than on company and im the end na small units ... In the end on 4 soldiers squads.
Start bad, stop watching it after "does not do meat assaults since Bakhmut".... What part of Wagner is not Russian Army you still don't get to this day? Also "it cannot organize offensive operations larger than a battalion".... except it conquered 1/5 of Ukraine in the first week of the War, but you somehow missed that part too. Also missed everything strategically ever since, because, why the hell you should understand Russia is not in an offensive but a positional push. Ups, that too you missed. Everything else are made up suppositions not worth watching.
How so that the 55th Artillery Brigade wasn't able to suppress enemy advances? If they didn't have enough shells, why? What about the artillery elements of other brigades? Also, since when they have lack of drones? I thought on that part of front Ukrainians had multiple drone units operating day/night.
Well, perhaps it had something to do with the fact that the brigade defending Vuhledar, and possibly also the nearby ones, had a terrible battle attrition. They had been stationed there for 2 years, and considering that Vuhledar is a strategic place which had been under major assault a few times, those artillery units must've suffered losses too. Perhaps it was no coincidence that the attack took place after the Kursk offensive. The Russian must've known about the Ukraine's reserve situation, which made them confident that Ukraine wouldn't have the ability to deploy another force in time. But for Drones, I think no one knew what happened. But the flank assaults were carried by soldiers riding motorcycles which would be an easy target for drones. The fact that there were minimum amount of drones harassing them perhaps suggest either those units suffered shortages or attrition, or there was a heavy Russian jamming activities.
Russians were moving in this sector for over a year the assault started even before avdiivka fell , the surprise Russian breakthrough near pokrovsk made the high command to shift all resources in that area as they Russians can't be allowed to reach pokrovsk as it is the backbone of defense in Donbass , many brigades which were supposed to fight in the area weren't manned in favour of brigades fighting near pokrovsk thus culminating the defence of southern donbass . Even now Ukrainian highcommand is try to relieve pokrovsk with counter attacks while Khurakove the epicenter of defence in southern sector is being flanked .
The balance shifting also works on the strategic/ operational level as well. You can see Russians shifting pressure from Chasiv Yar to New York/ Toretsk, to Pokrovsk to Selidove to Kurakhove to Vuhlerar sector. When encountering too much resistance in one place they shift resources somewhere else.
In fact the current offensive from Hyrnik Kurakhove sector to Bogoyavlenka shows a high level coordination. I’d be interested to see the analysis of that once that operation matures.
Indeed, this is a widely used method of the Russians. That's why the Ukrainians should have been better prepared to counter it.
@@MarkTakacs-u1w it's actually good the Ukrainians weren't prepared for it. This allows the conflict to end faster.
Well the Russians switched to Attritional Warfare doctrine by the book at the end of 2022 when they realized that this war is not Maneuver Warfare and cannot be fought by large maneuvers due to constant recon and intelligence capabilities up above (drones, sattelites). And according to the definition of Attritional fighting this is exactly what you should do - lots of shallow attacks to create chaos in the enemy defenses, when they try to plug a hole and start to stabilize the line switch your focus on another axis/point of attack somewhere else. They will create too much pressure on their logistics and waste so many resources by doing that, that the defenses will eventually start to collapse slowly but surely. We can see fruits of following this doctrine by the book on places like Kurakhove, Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar and Pischane (near Kupiansk). When UA started the Kursk offensive they put a large amount of strain to their resources and logistics even more and everything is starting to crumble
@@HrosoSK excellent analysis
isn't it obvious that if you can't break through in one place you refocus to somewhere you can?
"the Russians aren't capable of organising offensive operations larger than a battalion" or maybe concentrating forces when the battlefield is transparent to a depth of 10 or 20km due to pervasive ISR and long range precision fires/strike drones are readily available (essentially piloted guided munitions) is a bad idea
100%
I also thought so. Concentration of force, and moving force into the range of artillery/rockets/drones is riskier.
It shows why his retirement rank is in dispute...
Which actually proves the point that the Russians aren't capable of organizing and coordinating offensive ops, basically "movement to contact", of sufficient scale and depth to accommodate that reality. Of course, neither can the Ukrainians, except for where they catch the Russians off guard such as Kharkiv and Kursk. Thus, the static, WWI style of limited tactical scale of the character of the fighting such as shown in the video. This analysis looks like it was from 1914 not 2024...
@obsidianjane4413 I thought the artillery cover of both actors made large concentrations risky too. Rocket artillery has extended the area that can be threatened.
Contrary to your opening statement, Russia seems to be increasingly more capable and efficient in carrying out operations at a level above the battalion.
Exactly correct. I think it is a shame because there is some good info here but unforuntately many of these analysis channels fall to the same old talking points far too often.
The author is obviously very knowledgeable and experienced and his content deserves praise, however we are all slaves to our personal bias and he is no exception.
Ι don't know the guy, first time I land on his channel by chance.
Indeed, see the next video ;) However single operations were carried out with units not greatere than a battalion. At least in this actual battle.
@@MarkTakacs-u1wIt's because most brigades only use one battalion at a time
It's also Napoleon concept of dynamic pressure , which any general or judoka worth anything understand
press where the opponent can be put off balance , then follow immediately by exerting pressure on the opening created
it's less about one hit as a succession of linked moves creating a destructive dynamism
Ones in a while youtube algorithm throws something that is not a clickbate, but a gem. You got a follow and hope to see more. :)
nah this video is bad advice, just generalizing and armchair historianism. he just says the word "tactical" and makes you think hes smart, also his slavic accent. in reality what they need on the ground are just drones, dirtbikes, and cheap chinese nightvision.
@@AckzaTV o7 General TH-cam!
So we’ll win if we put drone operators on dirt bikes 🚴 and slap night vision googles on them?
Genius, you should take over from Syrsky:)
Honestly those things are surely good to have but the problem is 1. Where to put them 2. When to put them there 3. How will you put them there to name a few things.
If you ever led just a squad you’d know how hard it is to manage just 10 guys in the field and in peacetime exercises.
It only get harder with platoon, company, battalion et cetera. Very easy to get overwhelmed and with modern systems to be overdosed with information.
Sir, your content is superior, when compared to many other ex-military tubers. This God’s work, keep it coming. Wishing all the best from Estonia.
no it isnt
The West abandoned God at the council of Lyons in 1274 at the latest. Whatever "god" you worship is not the living God but som humanist construct.
@@henrik_worst_of_sinners Wow, most unexpected comments of the day.
@@MrBlackMarvel He’s quite on point on most things.
Kursk had a slowing effect on the Donbass? Seriously? It had a disastrous effect and the territorial losses in the Donbass were accelerated
Glad I saw your comment first now I know this video is garbage and I won't waste time watching it
@@gostan2718 The video is far from garbage. What makes you think that the Kursk offensive was nothing more than an attempt to prevent a complete Russian breakthrough in the Vuhledar or the Pokrovsk direction by redirecting the Russian reserves? Hence the North Koreans arriving in the Kursk area?
bruh fr, they thought that russia will divert their troops into kursk, but what they did instead is just double the troops and stream rolled trough multiple fortress city
@@seanl7856 there is no evidence of North Koreans military formations in Kursk, all we have is South Korean intel spokesperson say so (i.e. source-washed CIA narrative), and some satellite images of a site not in Kursk
I think he pretty accurately described what he meant by slowing effect
Very informative, never seen anyone go in-depth
The Ukrainian high command refuse to send reinforcement in Tavria and Khurakove direction due to the also critical situation happening in Pokrovsk, they fear a Russian assault to the strategical city. Khurakove and Vuhledar are set to die when Kursk offensive started, as it draws the much needed reserves from all other direction hence the massive breakthrough happening in Selidove, Vuhledar and Terni atm where Ukraine brigades fall one by one.
As for the 3 day breakout it was a disaster, minimal numbers of Ukrainian left the city as the Russian pummel the evacuation points 24/7 with artilleries, FABs, and even TOS flamethrower rockets. Meanwhile Russian actually receive minimal casualties at that time since they don't even move at all, it was just the drones flying over Vuhledar to call the shots, the elements of the 5th guard and 36MRB just sitting quietly at the flank while artillery work on Ukrainian position. I think around Vinik dismissal we started to hear news about massive amount of soldiers from the 72nd surrendering inside the city. As for the outside element of the 72nd, the Ukrainian command simply can't relief them due to the shortage of recruitable manpower and men at the frontline
🤫🤫🤫
Pokrovsk is strategic? If you zoom out, it's name doesn't appear, so I wouldn't call it strategic. Achieving strategic objectives lead to the furthering of geopolitical objectives, like the enemy surrendering and so on.
@@ArchOfficial Pokrovsk is literally the main supply hub for the region as all roads and train rails cross there, those who control it will have a massive edge in the region. It couldn't get more strategic even if you try, and the Ukrainians know this. That is why Syrsky hesitate to move troops to help Khurakove salient right now since the Selidove breakthrough that happen a few days ago threaten to half encircle Pokrovsk from the South. This is also the case on why Vuhledar fell, as well as ongoing massive breakthrough in Kupyansk, and with many other current breakthroughs from the Russian side
@@EzraelVio So capturing Pokrovsk will cause Ukraine to surrender and concede to Russia?
I love how you wrote a wall of text of unverified information, as i know for a fact the majority of 72nd was withdrawn in early october (and are now resting/reconstituting in Kherson region)
But you do you, bud
The Russians are using 3 armies in one coordinated attack north of Ugledar and south and north of Kurahovo AS WE SPEAK. They used 4 brigades in the capture of Avdeevka. There were NO meat waves at Bakhmut
Let him believe in Ghost of Kiev, that's all he got left.
Bahkmut broke the back of the Ukrainian AFU
The tactics Russia uses is called "Snails offensive", developed in 1942 by General Raus.
Snail 🐌 is faster than the bells and whistles Cheetah 🐆 on the battlefield 😅😅
Is called Attrition and is old as warfare itself.
The Westoid ADHD minds of the western officer corps cannot grasp this .
Too much gulf war and COIN war porn has fizzled their dopamine receptors
Great video, I whish though that you would highlight the things you are talking about so that it would be easier to find the place, unit or direction u are talking about. TY. Hope to see more of your videos
Noted!
Interesting points from a new content creator. Good start, however maintaining a strict neutrality and constantly stating the actual facts devoid of propaganda is absolutely essential. Statements like 'Russian agreesion' is factual; however claiming it as 'unprovoked' is nonsensical propaganda...
A lie repeated enough times...
Welcome to your own opinion
@@joyholtzhausen8976 but he is right. Aggression being unprovoked is very arguable. Just because you are willing to handwave away opposing reasoning doesn't make it dissappear.
Fairytale logic of demonizing ones enemies rarely leads to objective facts.
No lol it wasn’t provoked. It all started when Vladimir Putin lost his puppet president in Ukraine by a coup that was carried out by the Ukrainian people who wanted to divert from Russian culture and values. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the only way to control the ex Soviet republics were by placing puppets, go look at Chechnya, back in 1994 they tried their best to fight for their independence but now they’ve been turned into Russian dogs. Do you think Ukraine wants to end up like them?
The Russian government and Vladmir Putin are liars, they lied about Russian troops in Crimea, they lied about Russian troops in Donbass. Wake up dude, I once used to believe their b.s propaganda songs
@@arsic094Стоит ли напоминать на чьи деньги организовывался майдан и как Нуланд раздавала печеньки на нем?
let me guess, they drone the shit out of what they want to attack for two weeks, then they shell defensive hard points for a couple more days and 2 hours before the attack they start a massive artillery barrage while they outflank the city from two sides while another assault group moves into the center? they have been doing this shit since Bakhmut
This is called preparing the battlefield. It's standard every semi professional military does it. The difference is how good is the rest prepared - combined Armes Air(drones), Infanterie, artillery, intelligence.
Modern doctrine and operational strategy is so undercovered this was refreshing.
If the Russian army can not co ordinate above the level of a batallion how are they attacking across a 1100km front? Random?
Sherlock Holmes: the simplest explanation is usually the correct one
Deduction: the Russians can coordinate at army group / front level
They are not actively attacking on the 1100 km front. Thay are uncapable of WW2-like maneuvers. They tried and got fried.
@@IonBrad-d4c
Except they did so in this War in the first 3 weeks capturing 1/5 of Ukraine.
Ups... you haven't seen that did you? Yes, that's the point! Not to see
@@cristitanase6130 Surprise factor + previous presence of Russian army there. In Donetsk and Luhansk the Russia army is since 2014 (without insignia, without admitting).
In Kiev, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Harkov they tried and got fried. If not for the huge natural barrier (Dniepr), Russians would have run further East in disorder ...
@@IonBrad-d4c Ukrainians have been expecting this for 8 years
@@hahaper2037 A large scale invasion? No. Even in the day before, they were still not believing American warnings.
Thanks for sharing this analysis. What prevents RUS from conducting offensive operations above the Battalion level? Is it a command and control issue? Interesting stuff.
Thanks for providing an analysis of how the Russian military actually conducts attacks. It's very interesting. We've entered a new phase of warfare that reminds me of the later parts of WWI. Instead of trying for huge, sweeping attacks offensives are made up of smaller attacks with very clearly defined, local objectives. It's more of a crawling offensive rather than some mad dash.
Very well done and educational video. I have been looking for technical commentary like this. Hope to see more, and that you are able to cut through all the noice of propagandistic and shallow commentary. You were recommended on my feed, so seems the algorithm found you. Hope it spread the word. I will recommend to friends as well and post in appropriate forums
Much appreciated! I'll try to meet with the expectations of the professional audience.
Back when the 2022 war started I assumed the russians would be working on their "deep battle" georgii isserson model, but they proved to have insufficient coordination above the battalion level to attempt such a thing. I am still wondering if thier use of battalion tactical groups, what with div and brig level assets pushed down to battalions, is a result or cause of their chronic leadership dysfunction and atrophy. In any case, as the war dragged on and ISR via drones and other things became ubiquitous, and better integrated with artillery and other support, even accumulating a company to stage an attack became extraordinarily risky, forcing attacks to be meat-wave trickles. The trend of large attacks this past year I believe was partly a result of Ukrainian artillery and ISR starvation, and increasing pressure for the russians to be in as best a position as possible before the US election and other potential countdowns.
One practice they have retained at an operational level as you point out here, is the use rolling successive concentrated attacks across different points of the front, instead of such simultaneously. This is a core aspect of isserson's deep battle and was common practice during wwii even when the soviets were not yet capable of exploiting their successes.
Good video, hope to hear more from you, subbed.
The reason for BTGs was that during peacetime the manpower of the Russian army was drastically reduced while still having a large proportion of artillery and heavy weapons. As such, BTGs made sense with smaller amount of infantry relying on a disproportionately large amount of firepower.
However now that the manpower has been significantly increased, the Russians have switched to larger units.
Meat wave attacks were never a thing, it’s a propaganda trope. It was either small infantry squads supported by arty, or armored columns.
@@communist754 I'm not talking about meatwaves as they are popularly conceived and misunderstood, Im talking about the actual ones in which squads were force-fed across no-mans-land to deal with obstacles and dig positions, forcing the ukrainians to respond and expose themselves to russian supporting assets.
@@gbabayan Yes, while they do have an advantage in providing an exceptional amount of firepower organically, they also have disadvantages in having enormous and complicated logistical footprints for their manpower, and it is clearly evident the problems that occurred with russian logistics in 2022. If they really wanted to save money in peacetime I feel like shoving div assets to batts, instead of just practicing some type of cooperation with attached units that can be tasked from higher levels is kinda silly. In any case, I am not questioning why they switched too and then from BTGs even if I think they were not a great idea even for russia's problems.
I haven't seen any significant evidence either way, but I speculate that on top of the normal level of corruption and dysfunction, the BTG structure may have contributed to some insulatory practices among their officers, in which feeling that they had everything they needed organically, they would be less likely to cooperate with other units to their own detriment.
@stug41 isn't that the default modus operandi of both sides? I think meat wave is an egregious misnomer, because instead of a massive manpower concentration and WWI-style infantry wave attacks implied in the name you have individual groups of up to ten people dispersed as thinly as possible and relying on speed and maneuverability rather than mass and momentum. If anything, that's the polar opposite of human wave - it's a human trickle.
Interesting observations and a testable hypothesis. Thank you for your contribution.
Excellent educational content. In future I'd love if you add precise time stamps for date and time, when each particular attack happened. I know it's more workload, but you are getting views now. Good Luck!
So to conclude, based on your high level estimation - what is the strength ratio at the beginning and what is the casualty ratio at the end of the battle?
Good question. Accordin to my rough estimates, the combined force ration was 7:1 to the Russians at the beginning of the battle (early Aug). Regarding casualties I have zero information. If I must give a rough estimate, I woudl say that the Ukrainians lost altogether one brigade worth of human losses while the Russians one and a half. But his is just a rough estimate.
@ thank you for your response... seeing as this opportunity to talk to an unbiased professional is preciously rare, i would ask one more question:
Do you believe it true that there is nothing stopping Russians advancing to the Dneper once they break through these strongholds in southern Donbass? I keep hearing that they are only accelerating, but there's propaganda from both sides... Greetings from Qatar!
@@VersusAllOdds The fortifications get less and less as Russia pushes west. The battles in the Donbas area for the last 2 and a half years where essentially battling through the main fortified lines which are extensive and these were built up over a period of 8+ years.
@@VersusAllOdds There is the Ukrainian army, and fortifications are not very difficult to build if you actually want to. Strategic-level Breakthroughs are probably not possible unless one side completely collapses, but this is not likely to happen soon.
@ i also think so... i think the hype of "if Russians break through this line it's over" is mostly a myth. It's a grinding, attrition warfare at it's worst.
Thanks for the good content. Finally some good stuff compared to all youtube crap we hear
Nice video! Hope to see more
Thanks! Will do!
˝Russians didn´t launch Meat Wave Assault SINCE the Battle of Bakhmut...˝ , ok , thanks buddy, ALL I needed to know so I don´t waste my time watching a 40 min video. BTW, I am still waiting to see a SINGLE video of ˝FAMOUS˝ Russian mean wave assault in this war. Must be that they are forced to do this cuz they run our of shovels. And I am curious to find out YOUR definition of ˝meat wave assault˝. Just kidding, I am good. Sayonara!
That is why I said in the video "so-called". Bw You gave me a good idea, to make a debunking video of these infantry assaults.
@@MarkTakacs-u1w i think i heard that prisoner units were used as recon troopers / canon fodder to discover enemy positions in artyovmosk and were interpreted as "meat wave assaults.
@@TheGushroomThat's probably false. Prisoners had high rate of attrition, but there were not prisoners units. Prisoners served with volunteers and some old guards. Source: interview with former Russian soldier.
@@MarkTakacs-u1w You are claiming Russian have lost a battalion for capturing Konstantinovka. It's usually assumed that a military unit loses it's ability to fight after losing about 1/3 of it's strength. For a battalion it would be something around 100-150 men. Do you have any proof of Russians losing that much?
There's absolutely footage of a "mule" assault phase in Bakhmut. Men not carrying rifles holding ammo cases and wearing vests with their pouches full.
Clausewitz mentioned? Subbed. All my homies use war as an extension of political intercourse
Political intercourse? I thought it was an extension of sexual congress, but maybe I grabbed Kama Sutra off the shelf by mistake.
It would be interesting to see a comparison between this engagement, and the recent engagements in the Sivers'k area.
Superb video!!! Subbed. By the way, which army were you an officer in?
He said in the introduction that he was an officer in the Hungarian army.
@pewmandelt5745 damn. Must've missed it.
I belive it is important to note that russian units are one or two scale higher than their Ukr. counterparts on the frontline.
Companies against regiments
Battallions against brigades
This is normal, though. US doctrine also prefers the attacking unit to be at least one echelon larger than the defenders, and conversely that an attack can be held by a defending unit one echelon lower with adequate support. The problem for the Ukrainians is the lack of reserves (in the form of uncommitted units behind the frontline) to mount counterattacks.
@@LafayetteCCurtis Fun fact: Ukrainians tend to use NATO tactics, but over the last 3 years Russian tactics have become much more like NATO tactics
do you have a video of a human wave attack? never seen one but heard/read many times..
really well done analysis! looking forward to see more in the future!
Incredible, please continue making such videos
i liked how you explained everything and i really apreciated the theory you show at the beggining of the video (i tried to compared it with HoI IV, not the best but i think it helps me to understand that)
Many of the POWs would be injured lads. 800 does not seem unreasonable to me if we are assuming a full battalion deployed to the town, that 100-200 guys getting out and that the Russians were working hard to cut the lines of supply and evacuation from the stronghold.
One of the best videos I have seen on the SMO. The battle level analysis is much superior to anything else out there. Please release more videos on the other battles such as Popasna, Artemivsk, Avdiivka, Mariupol & the 2023 ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
SMO? You mean genocidal invasion war?
SMO? You mean the war inside Ukraine?
@@aquila3958and then he proceeds to exclusively name Russian wins or Ukrainian failures lol, bro's not even hiding it
How about a video about the battle of Balaklyia? Or the 6th Tank Regiment being annihilated at Skybyn north of Kyiv?
Very interesting video. Yes, it would be nice to see such analysis of other battlefield events as well. Thanks for your explanation.
Fantasztikus videó Köszönjük!!!! Fantastic video Thank You!!!
Great input on what is happening on the front and very helpful for us armchair generals.
Can I have a source list? Would love more reading about this stuff
Due to the complex political nature of the many combatants and their professed levels of participation in this war it seems what in many cases might be poor military decisions are probably military commanders following standing orders that operate well politically but poorly militarily. This seems to afflict both sides. Of course these political orders, on the face of them ridiculous, are usually vital for grand strategic purposes.
Great video,,,
and also, I think human waves are pretty scary if used correctly, with proper planning, ofcourse.
Extremely interesting, good video, thank you so much for your work.
Impressive analysis. Subscribed!
Good insights, but I don't really get the point of exploring some specific tactic when RuAF offensive continues over a year, where they have a strong fire capabilities which UAF can not suppress (Guided bombs) and they willing to send nearly all of they reserves without a second thought about the future. If it was only in case of Vuhledar, I guess it worth to consider that specifically, but it continues since October 11 2023 in a whole frontline. UAF just don't have that much man- and firepower, trading territory for time is all they had left
For "Schwerpunkt" I prefer the translation "pressure point".
Szia! Magyarul vagy magyar felirattal nem lesznek videóid?
Szia! Nem tervezem.
Outstanding analysis.
interesting video, although the loss numbers are highly questionable. losing a battalion for a small town with that kind of superiority in firepower seems super unlikely.
I didn't think they were incapable of adaptation, but acceptance of losses is still at a level much different from the USA and others NATO nations.
Köszi Márk nagyon jo Video! :)
This is brilliant - thank you! 🙏
this guy talks like he knows what Russia's losses were in any given operation. He doesn't.
It would be interesting to see what you think of the videos made by a channel called the operational art of war about the Ukraine war.
Хотел бы я поставить лайк, но в глаз попало предвзятое отношение автора
I don't think this is a "tactic" that anybody should note. It is just a standard attack pattern, especially when you have overwhelming force.
Amazing how the russians can use the 'balance shifting method' when all of NATO ISR works for Ukraine. Amazing right. How can the Russians do this?
Cool, Ukrainians no casualties, Russians destroyed 3 times, Kursk US PR offensive, good for weakening US lines. RF apparently has over million casualties while Ukr has those 30k. Those PR lines regarding fails, while giving seeming praise, oh by the way the ywere wiped 3 times yea lol. Things arent extra rosy for RF, but intentionally giving away political messages, like the whole thing was unprovoked by the US at all. Mr. Takács or Tkáč should return to weaving instead of giving US POV unless Mr. Weaver actually lives in the US, if so, that would make sense, but the pronunciation seems rather from the Downlands. While it is better that you have some understanding of things, which is quite a difference from most commentators, PR filler isnt interesting having to suffer it through and waste time on.
Wouldn’t Russians be offended with linking their military science to Clausewitz, which is more the western anchor point?
Carl von Clausewitz was an officer in the Russian Tsar's Army during the Napoleonic Wars, and Carl vonClausewitz was of East German (Prussian ethnicity) although he did get commissioned as an officer in the Russian Army by the Russian Tsar. The philosophy of Carl von Clausewitz leans heavily on Hegelian dialectics and Carl von Clausewitz's dialectical method of thinking was popular in many Marxist-Leninist countries including the USSR Soviet Union, the DDR East Germany, and Maoist China. Basically, it's all about "dialectical materialism" for Leninist countries and Carl von Clausewitz uses a Hegelian dialectical method of reasoning in his writings that is similar to the dialectical reasoning that was used by Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin.
The reason for Kursk offensive is for politic. Zelen knew Trump highly will win. At what he and everyone expect, on day one Trump would immediately force Ukraine to sign a peace treaty and that mean very likely they will have to give a way capturing territory. This position is very bad for him because there is no way Zelen couldn't refuse US demand. If US out, EU will out and they will fight alone. Because of that, he was stubborn to keep Kursk as long as he can until Trump get in the house. Then if US force Russia and Ukraine to sign a treaty, there will be a big No No from Putin because he himself also can't give away Russia territory. Hence, US will have to continue to Aid Ukraine because while it's very easy to force Ukraine to sign, it's not for Russia.
In Zelen calculation, if US in Trump's hand, still support him, he will retreat force from Kursk and declare it's a tactical victory because they were able to draw Russia Troop from other fronts while obviously it was not. A military disaster but political victory.
Amazing analysis!
I am not pleased with your evident political bias but your military analysis has good substance
Biggest issue of this war, is that Russia started as a pretty much sh**t tier army but quickly transformed and while lucking many things, it gained crucial experience about modern conflict. News that are not good for Europe.
Thanks again for your input
instant sub, great breakdown
The Ukrainians took a gamble in Kursk to relieve pressure in Donbas but it appears to have failed because Russia had deeper manpower and material reserves than Western analysts led the Ukranians to believe. Russia is now advancing in Donbas at a faster rate because of this failed gamble. In all honesty Kursk was only a PR victory for Ukraine and the territory captured holds little other strategic value hence was lightly defended. What is needed is more moderate expectations of either side and more cautious assessments of motives and intentions rather than these big grand announcements.
what did he say Russia is incapable of?? Really? Prove it!
Üdv! Tetszenek az írásai is! :)
Csak angol nyelven lesznek videok?
Very interesting. Thank you
Subbed, hope you maintain a neutrality here.
The Russians has a big advantage in military production, men, equipment quality, moral and overall strategy.
NATO has propaganda.
It would be interesting to see what would happen to that side of the internet when things went bad to Ukraine. They like to boast about how the entire NATO industrial might is going to outmatch Russia because it only had Soviet stocks which were depleting.
But they didn't realise that Russia also had allies. Currently, Ukraine is dealing with Iranian drones, North Korean artillery shells, and Chinese technology. Worse still, unlike the European countries which could send most of its equipment to Ukraine, the main NATO power, the US couldn't afford to send too much equipment to Ukraine since it still had China to contend with on Asia.
The situation became potentially unfavourable in the next year when you considered that perhaps Russia's stockpiles are depleting because they are forming new Brigades which needed equipment. With how many European nations had depleted their own stocks, I suppose that the situation could only get worse for Ukraine from this point.
NATO countries have free media which hold government failures and leaders to account! Russia has ONLY state controlled media, which simply parrots Kremlins narratives!
yeah but how did he make his NO name?
@@tadoshka5170 The EU alone has an economy of 20T USD compared to Russia 2 Trillion
Germany per year makes 4 million cars while Russia makes 700k cars , the UK has the second largest aircraft industry in the world
I mean Russia has committed 40% of it's federal budget to Ukraine while the west on average commits 0.8% of the budget so Europe has a lot more room to go up. If the EU spent 7% of GDP on protecting Ukraine that would equal around 1.5 Trillion USD or 75% of the Russian GDP , with that money Europe would quickly overtake Russia in military production.
@@sababugs1125 See Russia has 1 factory to make cars. It makes 700k cars. Germany has 10 car factories they make 4million cars. Good.
Russia has 10 Factories making artillery Shells. They make over 3 million shells a year
USA, EU, NATO have 5 factories for artillery Shells. They make around 1.2 million shells a year.
See. Your GDP doesnt matter when it comes to millitary production.
Also Russia spends around 32% of its "Federal Budget" on its military
Fun Fact USA spends around 27.4% of its "Federal Budget" on military.
So i dont see any big differences here.
"If the EU spent 7% of GDP on protecting Ukraine that would equal around 1.5 Trillion USD",
So why havent they dont this? What are they waiting for? We all know they are not ready for the inflation and price hikes that will come with that decision.
There is difference between GDP nominal and GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)
It costs US 1000$ to buy a bolt, and 90k for bushings. The same bolt costs 10$ in Russia.
So if Russia and US got 1000$, US can buy 1 bolt, Russia can buy 100 bolts. This is accounted for in GDP PPP.
Russia is ranked 4th with 7b$.
Purchasing Power accounts for how much you can buy with same amount of money. So imagine you are in US and you buy items for 37T$. You go to China and you can buy the same items for 18T$.
For Russia the 2T$ nominal for Russia might seem small, but that is actually equivalent to 7T$ in PPP.
As for Germany 4.7T$ nominal and 6T$ in PPP.
Well, with 5 to 1 ratio, it would be a shame if Ru can't move forward 🙄
Good beginig and poor ending. Could be a good tactical/educational video but nevertheless everything went down to "russian propoganda" and "unprovoked agression". Still, it is not a bad analyze and quite interesting lecture. Would like to see sometheing like this in the future
reality is hard to swallow for vatniks
I'm seeing repeated pincers and encirclements now.
They focus on the center, they make pincer and encirclement, but the real main attack is from the center,,, remember the word,,, broken center is a broken army.
Sir I have maybe stupid question but I would be happy if you answer me - why was Vuhledar so important town for Russians to capture it, while at the same time was EXTREMELY small in area? That town was maybe home to more than 10K people, but area of that town is very small. But it was not at all easy to capture it for the Russians. That thing is not logical to me. Keep up good work, I like your style of videos.
Wide open fields of fire out front and anything that can be seen can be killed. The Russians had to work their way around the flanks. That took a looooong time.
It was a very well fortified highly defensible position overlooking T0509.
There are actually a lot of reasons.
First as the main one is Ugledar is a goddamn pain in the ass. It's a town on the slightly higher bank of the river than has high rise building, is surrounded by wide open fields and was heavily fortified since 2014 I believe. It's a very strong fortified position.
The second reason follows from the first one - it's location. It wedges right between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. It's troublesome, because the town could serve as a spring board for Ukrainian offensive operations to cut southern supply lines. There's also a little discussed fact that I believe 10 or 15 km south-east of it there's an important railway that can't be used, because thanks to Ugledar it's squarely within range of ukrainian artillery. This two things are the reasons why until recently that railroad was blocked by a giant 10 km long armoured train and another section south of it was constructed. Now it can be used properly and greatly ease logistics in Novorossia.
And the third reason that we're seeing right now - it allowed to move south of Kurahovo Inbetween ukrainian lines and exploit the fact that they were meant to stop attacks from the south, not from the east.
Generally land size and population talk are all for propaganda. What's really important are strategic points. Ugledar was one such point.
Opne a map. Check where Vulhedar is. When it fell, the Ukranian positions behind it fell quickly and now Kurakhove (The headquarters of Donbass front is in a couldroun.
It was a city which provided vantage point. It had high rises which saw Russian movement from far away and they were prepared for attacks. But when Vulhedar fell to Russians. Now they had the vantage point and can see far into Ukrainian positions and use that to their advantage while moving troops/attacking. etc.
Üdv! Mint régi blogolvasója kérdezem, csak angolul lesznek videók? Értem, meg minden, de azért magyarul mégiscsak jobb lenne.
A TH-cam "Auto Translate" mukodik magyarra is, Settings (Fogaskerek) alatt lehet beallitani...
@@ZsozsoBorkai Ön Takács Márk? És mi köze ennek a kérdésemhez?
Üdv! Köszönöm szépen. Nem lesznek, ez a csatorna angol nyelvű.
@@imresalydr.485 the man tried to assist/help you. Even if its his fault, why so toxic?
Köszönöm válaszát! Rendben! 👍
Great content
The People disliking the videe are those who don't like truth and want to be feed with lies, thanks for your analysis mate. Russia is learning and is becoming one of the most capable military out there with modern warfare experience
The units were forced to hold Vuhledar till Zelensky was in USA presenting his fantasy victory plan.
Waiting for more videos. Russians are on roll.
ok vatnik
@@ffffuchs truth is a dangerous thing is it?
This is sad but truth, ukr military operations almost all about for Zelensky pr
@@ffffuchs A vatnik is a quilted warrior's clothing worn under armor. Yes, Russians are warriors, and Ukrainians are peasants and have no chances and vatniks.
any citations ?
Mark you should get a better microphone.
Can barely see the gains on the map
They killed more war tourist and fanatics right? Since TDs are managed by ATO, and Foreign concentrations of soldiers.
combat strength of a brigade is 800? Wow
Where do you served sir?
Nice and informative video! 🫡
I think its hard to attack more than battalion cause its easy to be discovered. Its hard to concentrate big ammount of units. Russians are struggle with all satelites of NATO,and intelligence of NATO.
Maybe they use brigade or division in attack but on all wide of front. Then this division divide on brigade,than on battalion than on company and im the end na small units ... In the end on 4 soldiers squads.
Really intelligent and insightful analysis. I recommend viewers read or listen to The Russian Art of War by Jaques Baud. Subbed! 👍
This was tight
Start bad, stop watching it after "does not do meat assaults since Bakhmut"....
What part of Wagner is not Russian Army you still don't get to this day?
Also "it cannot organize offensive operations larger than a battalion".... except it conquered 1/5 of Ukraine in the first week of the War, but you somehow missed that part too. Also missed everything strategically ever since, because, why the hell you should understand Russia is not in an offensive but a positional push. Ups, that too you missed.
Everything else are made up suppositions not worth watching.
That's a lot of micromanaging at corps level
Russians dramatically increased their pace after this video lol. Good work on this very good watch
Russian army is amazing
Tell, please, about Ukr tactic.
I subscribed
one word-methodical.
1min 02 sec "full scale invasion" ok i am out....
Russian advances are still slower than a snail's pace
Merci à vous!
How so that the 55th Artillery Brigade wasn't able to suppress enemy advances? If they didn't have enough shells, why? What about the artillery elements of other brigades?
Also, since when they have lack of drones? I thought on that part of front Ukrainians had multiple drone units operating day/night.
Well, perhaps it had something to do with the fact that the brigade defending Vuhledar, and possibly also the nearby ones, had a terrible battle attrition. They had been stationed there for 2 years, and considering that Vuhledar is a strategic place which had been under major assault a few times, those artillery units must've suffered losses too.
Perhaps it was no coincidence that the attack took place after the Kursk offensive. The Russian must've known about the Ukraine's reserve situation, which made them confident that Ukraine wouldn't have the ability to deploy another force in time.
But for Drones, I think no one knew what happened. But the flank assaults were carried by soldiers riding motorcycles which would be an easy target for drones. The fact that there were minimum amount of drones harassing them perhaps suggest either those units suffered shortages or attrition, or there was a heavy Russian jamming activities.
Russians were moving in this sector for over a year the assault started even before avdiivka fell , the surprise Russian breakthrough near pokrovsk made the high command to shift all resources in that area as they Russians can't be allowed to reach pokrovsk as it is the backbone of defense in Donbass , many brigades which were supposed to fight in the area weren't manned in favour of brigades fighting near pokrovsk thus culminating the defence of southern donbass . Even now Ukrainian highcommand is try to relieve pokrovsk with counter attacks while Khurakove the epicenter of defence in southern sector is being flanked .
@@tadoshka5170 Soldiers driving motorcycles are NOT an easy target for drones and it takes more drones to make casualties.
no advice for the russian side?