How Accurate Is Garmin Race Predictor? Half Marathon Attempt
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Can I go faster than garmin?
Is the garmin race predictor accurate? Can I beat Garmin's half marathon race prediction, or is the garmin predictor unreliable?
In this video I look into how reliable the garmin race predictor is, by running a local half marathon race. I wanted to beat my garmin prediction! I have previously found the garmin vo2max predictor to be quite accurate, so naturally I wanted to explore this further. Was my garmin race predictor too slow ?
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Well, for me the Garmin predictions have been scarily good! In the last month, it gave me a 44:01 prediction for a 10k and I raced it in 44:03, while training for a HM. AND for that, Garmin predicted 1:40:11 that morning and I finished 1:40:04.
Ooh that's very close! Sounds like Garmin has got it right for you then. Have you found it accurate over other distances too?
I believe it's more accurate for novice/slower runners who tend to be much more 'one paced'. Elite/competitive runners it seems to be less accurate.
Garmin might be shaping your mindset and programming you to run those times and not quicker
Awesome video, dude! Really great content here -instant new sub! Yeah, my Garmin watch clearly doesn’t know I’m hitting a Boston qualifier this weekend! 😂 👏👍
Thanks man, great to hear! Haha, make sure you prove Garmin wrong 💪
really enjoyed this experiment and even more when you run locally, Love to do some track session, miss them alot since my move to Tewkesbury from the south East.
Thank you, that's great to hear. If you're into running as a single discipline, there are a couple of clubs in Cheltenham that use the track for their sessions.
We (chelt Tri club) also use it every week for a running session, so if you're interested in triathlon then get in touch with our membership team through our club website 🙂
Only interested in Running, and i have my own training schedule to stick to, why i have not joined a club up to now, but thank you for the info.
@@NutritionTriathlon
Great video. Great concept (I haven't seen anyone else do a Garmin Race Predictor video). Thanks for sharing!
@13:40. I'm in the minority; I think it's better for the VO2 Max to go up slowly and steady than to
directly train for it by forgoing endurance. Anyone can have a short, intense session and see steady Vo2 Max
increases but I'm also a believer in sustained endurance; and believe it's more important than short, hard bouts.
And yes, I too have gotten those V02 Max decreases. Frustrating.
Hey, thank you! 🙂 it was fun to make it.
Oh I completely agree with you in that endurance training should make up the biggest part of your training. But I still think vo2max training can form part of your training, depending on your goals. I think too many people focus on the top end hard training when they really shouldn't!
I think that race predictor work the best if you are doing mostly just running and doing it with chest strap and preferably using their workouts as training. Their suggested daily workouts put you on wide area of paces so that it can listen your heart rate and better predict your times.
Also it must be mentioned that if you run mostly short distances like 5k-10k, you cannot expect to get good estimation for marathon. That is why it would be good to set your races in calendar and even better if you could set your goal pace so that daily suggested workout can suggest you workouts that will prepare you for that race.
Yeah, I have been impressed by the daily workouts. A good variation of easy work and intervals. And absolutely, totally agree about needing to be trained for whatever distance you're considering.
Planning on testing the calendar function too!
Great video, thanks.
I feel like I should try smashing a half marathon
Ha, let me know how you get on! Thanks 😊
ive had my garmin about 10 months, managed to beat it by one minute doing a 10k in july, and then got within 20 seconds for my half marathon a couple of weeks ago, very cool feature god knows how they work it out very clever
Nice one, sounds like you've done well then. I think they base it off heart rate and pace, and use a pool of data to average it. Something along those lines anyway.
Great video mate. What do you think of the arm heart rate monitor is it as accurate as a chest strap?
Thank you! 🙂 I really like the arm HR monitor. Used a chest strap for years but didn't like it because of how restrictive it felt. No similar issues with the arm HR monitor.
Have found it to be accurate to what I expect it to show, and people like DC rainmaker have tested it and it seems to work brilliantly!
Overall, I'm a big fan!
I was interested in Garmin’s race predictor when I got my watch a little over a month ago. My race predictor said that I could complete a 5K in 19:59. I decided to run a 5K and did it in exactly 19:59. It was my first 5K under 20 minutes. Weirdly accurate.
Haha wow, that is accurate! Funnily enough I did 19:59 the first time I ran under 20 too! Congrats on that
My Garmin has so high predictions - it predicted 1:35:30 for my half and I run 1:41:21 (which I was very happy about!), this weekend I am going to make a debut on the marathon, my goal is 3:45:00, but Garmin says "yeah, 3:29:49 is possible man"
It obviously thinks highly of you 😉 interesting to hear the difference though!
Good luck with the marathon this weekend, hope it goes well 💪
Try to push those last 5-3 kms, it might be right but really hard mentally
@@stamatisvragas7720 I will try! 3 days to go
Oh it was such a pleasant race! 3:44:00, maybe couuld have done a little better, but I'm happy and proud!
@@giro5875 it is indeed a great time. Your time will be my 3 year goal
During my training for this weekend’s Amsterdam 1/2 Marathon I ran the London 10,000 10km race on 24th September - I ran 47:23, which as a 70 year-old runner gave my a AGP score of 75.45 - the equivalent time for this score over the 1/2 Marathon distance is 1:44:24, and the predicted time per Garmin Connect is 1:44:09.
I ran 1:45:16 at Cambridge earlier in the year, and have always considered my best race distances were 10 miles and 1/2 Marathon (my PB for the latter is 76:25), so, having recently knocked 70 seconds off my 10km time from this year’s London Winter Run, I would be looking to run under 1:44 on Sunday - I plan to run in the range 7:50 to 8:00 per mile which would give me a finish time of between 1:42:45 and 1:44:59 - I’ll let you know how I get on!
Hey, thanks for sharing all those insights! Massive kudos to you for running so well into your 70s, that's amazing to hear 🙂 please do let us know how you get on, fingers crossed you beat Garmin 😉
@@NutritionTriathlon - afraid the Amsterdam 1/2 didn't go to plan - I was in pen 3 and pen 2 had an assortment of corporate guests etc - lost 30 seconds in the first 5km weaving and dodging slower (some much slower) runners and never managed to get it back - every time there was a construction in the course I would have to slow to a jog and then pick the pace up again when it opened out again - in the end reasonably happy with 1:45:15 for what was effectively an extended fartlek session!
Oh bummer, sorry to hear that! Sounds like it was out of your hands for the most part then - that sort of thing really is so hard to come back from. But kudos for a great time and positive attitude anyway 🙂
@@NutritionTriathlon - yes, more than a bit annoying to put all of the TCS employees and guests plus Le Champion members in pen 2 irrespective of what time they were likely to do - some were walking in the first 5km.
Unless you can get in wave 1 by running sub 1:40 I wouldn’t recommend this one to anyone looking to run a PB!
It took wearing my Garmin watch for 10 months before it started predicting a 10k time as fast as I did a 10k right after I got the watch. It's currently predicting a 5k time that might be faster than I can do. I don't do a lot of running - mostly cycling - so I very rarely put the race predictions to the test.
Sounds like a similar position to me then! Also cycle more than I run, especially at the moment. Funny how different it is for everyone
That's scarily good to see everyone mentioning how accurate it is, considering my case it completely deviate from the predictor. My recent FM is 3:48:57, while Garmin predicts it 3:00:10.
Yeah that's quite different!! Maybe you can catch it soon 😉
@@NutritionTriathlon Yeah haha thanks. It would be my dream to qualify for Boston.
Great content btw.
Is it the polar verity sense optical sensor you use? And in that case, does it update your auto detected lthr on your garmin?
Thanks!
Yep, it's the polar verity sense. Garmin does use it to updated my LTHR, as long as I've done what Garmin thinks is an appropriate workout!
Hello. I discover your channel 😊 . Great one and really interesting. I subscriebe. Hello from Switzerland 😊
Hey there! Thank you for coming along, I hope you continue enjoying my vids! 😊
Very interesting. Don't know what Garmin calculates with. Our 'scores' are very much alike. My VO2 max is also 58 and my current LTH is 4:04 / 165 BPM. But my predictions are very different. 5K: 17:43 / 10K: 36:45 / HM: 1:21:15 / M: 2:49:43. Since I do not race I do not know if the predictions are close to what I can do. But I'm planning to do a parkrun in the nearby future. I'm using a Fenix 5X Plus and I'm 49 years old.
Those predictions are very different, aren't they? Let me know if you end up doing any timed events like parkrun, would love to know how you get on and how close the predictions are!
My vo2 max is 51. My pb of 10km is only 52mins. The race predictor is 44:36 😅
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Using garmin FR965. Started training in this sport 6 months ago. My vo2max is 50 on garmin. Surprise it is 50 on lab also. 🎉😊
Ooooh nice, good estimation for you then! How's the FR965?
@@NutritionTriathlon i love it. It's part of me now :). Been lucky , no bugs, no freezes, no errors until now. Been using it for the last 6 months with HRM pro+.
I'm doing Garmin's DSW for about 4 months. I had the first race of this season yesterday, a 10k, intermediate training until next HM. Garmin predicted a pace of 4:28/km. Real race pace 4:18/km (43min 08 sec PB) ...so pretty close. I could put the difference on race shoes..vaporfly nex % :). ended with some Stamina in tank according to garmin, but I didn't dare to push the pace lower, last km I ran at 4:05/km...180HR (46 years old ;)
Sounds like you had a great race then, congrats on that! And also like there's room for more 😃
My garmin predictions are pretty good! It says 5k 19:40 did it in 19:33 and yesterday i ran an half marathon prediction was 1:31:47 and i did it in 1:29:51. So i can really depend on it when i start a raceday!
Sounds like it is super dialled in for you then, interesting to hear. Do you use the workout functions, and do they fit your target pace too?
My Garmin has me much slower: Garmin predicts 39:43 10km, 1:27 half. Last weekend I ran 36:23, and July I ran 1:19
Nice, defo beating Garmin then! 💪
I use Lactate Zones for training and my Garmin also estimates my race times 99% correctly, even the marathon time is only 5seconds off which is crazy. VO2max stuck at 62 all year tho 😅
Oooh that is very close then! Seems like it's pretty bang on for you! Do you do much true VO2 max work?
twice a week, wednesday intervals and saturday tempo @LT2. Also worth mentioning my VO2max estimate from watch is completely spot-on from what i've got from lab test @@NutritionTriathlon
I ran my first marathon a couple days ago. My Garmin said I would run a 3:07:21 and I ran a 3:07:38. 17 seconds difference over a distance of 42k is insane, especially considering I only got the watch a couple weeks before the race.
Wow, absolutely bang on! Did you look at your Garmin prediction just before you raced, or have that number in your head as the time to best? I'm always curious how much impact our brain has on our ability to run to time!
@@NutritionTriathlon When I woke up, it said „it‘s race day- race prediction 3:07:21“. I assume it also considered the course, weather and wind conditions.
I wasn‘t really bothered by that prediction, as I would have also been happy with a 3:14h finish. Started with a 1:36 on the first half and finished strong with a 1:31 just giving it my all. Wouldn‘t have thought that I could run such a quick second half (quick for me personally).
All in all very happy with my garmin forerunner 265.
@bj5834 sounds awesome! I haven't used the calendar function yet but will at some point
I feel like the efficacy of the estimates becomes a bit washy when you get towards the extremes. As an example, I am not particularly fit for a runner (obese in fact with a VO2max around 40) and for a 10k last year it predicted around 1:07. I managed 1:00:30 and was quite pleased with the result, but it was at the cost of some insane stats and pushing way harder than garmin would probably expect any sane person to push (average HR over 190 with peak around 208)
You averaged 190 for an hour? That sounds rather off for someone obese with a VO2 Max of 40
@@ln5747 I go hard and have a history of distance running and wrestling from highschool so I know how to push myself as hard as humanly possible, but I agree. If I hadn't had a chart afterwards I wouldn't have believed it either (the mild chest pain at one point 9k in also did some convincing)
Yep quite possibly right! I think they also base it off metrics from the general populations, so if physiology is significantly different then it'll struggle
Garmin gives me 18m 21s for the 5k. Reality? About a minute more. But at the longer distances, it gave me 3h 35m for the marathon. I ran it in 3h 30m. Now im not doing long runs, but its giving me a 3h 27 marathon. The reality: i couldnt run a marathon tomorrow! If i did, it would involve walkies. Id be lucky to break 4.
Yeah I think there's got to be an element of being trained for the distance. Mine suggests 3:37 for a marathon and i would not be able to do it in that time because I haven't trained for it
Beaten garmin!!! Garmin said 3:57, i finished the marathon at 3:49 🎉❤
Woohoo! Brilliant time, well done, and good job on beating Garmin 😉
For 5Ks and 10Ks my Garmin is usually right on point, to the second even, quite amazing. For longer distances, it's been ways off sometimes.
My watch predicted me to run a 20:25 5k but I run an 18:18. I’m just confused because I ran this with the watch on so it should know I can go that fast
That depends as well long long you trained for it or how much load u had those days when u run 5k.
For example my 5k pr is 17.38 and now im 4 weeks away from marathon(im in 90-95% since i have to taper as well). And my watch says 17:33 for 5k and 37:15 for 10k.( i run 10k pr 38.10 untrained,meaning i didnt train for specific run). So ye 5-10k are accurate coz watch KNOWS ur speed.
But for 21k-42k its all about nutrition muscular endurance mental power perfect conditions. Lot of factors.
Im aiming for 3.15 marathon.
Aerobicaly i think i can run close to 3h marathon. My watch says 3:03.
BUT my legs and my endurance lacks to pull of ~3h marathon.
My heartrate will be not too high. But my body will suffer after 30km. So
Thata whu its innacurate in longer diatances😊
That is impressive! Out of curiosity, do you normally look at your prediction before you do a 5 or 10km? I just ask because I know I find it easy to work to a number, and I wonder how much harder I could push if I wasn't limited
@@NutritionTriathlon sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I also use the Stryd which gives me predictions that are quite similar to Garmin
I ran a 1:25:52 half marathon while Garmin predicted a 1:28:xx, even after my race it still predicts a 1:28:57. Pretty much useless if you ask me. I have tested Stryd for around 6 months, and it was much more accurate.
Sounds pretty similar to my results then. I've not used Stryd but have heard good things about it. Do you use it to help with your training intensities?
With my old garmin (935) the predicted times would always be way too fast. Now with the 965 i've got the opposite problem. Ran a 10k pb this summer in 36.36. After the race the prediction was 40.11. Same thing after running a hm pb. That time the watch gave me an estimation 2 min slower than what i just ran.
My take is that these are just estimations and you should think what is reasonable based on what paces you've managed on intervals and long runs.
Yes, great point. You really have to consider what training you've done and how that relates to your predictions times. I couldn't get anywhere near my marathon time that it predicts me, because I haven't trained for it.
Based on your training runs, maybe it thought you took EPO for the race and refused to accept it.
I find it to be way off. Started running 5 months ago & have been quite consistent. My first 5K was 35min and it predicted to be 28min. Second 5K was 25min & it predicted 27min. My last 5K was 21:25 and it predicted 23:30. My 10k is currently predicted at 53min but ran 49min during my threshold training & I was not 100% pushing.
Yeah sounds like it's not super accurate for you. But sounds like you've improved a lot and that's probably made it harder. Way to go with your 5k time - 35 to 21 is brilliant!
@@NutritionTriathlon just did Manchester half marathon today it predictions were closer. Predicted 1:46:04 -> actual 1:44:43. Probably needs more data to be accurate.
To be honest I kinda feel intimidated by wy race predictions. It says I could run a 5k in around 25mins, but my current threshold is around the 5:40/km mark. Don't know how I would sustain an even faster pace for 25 minutes. Halfamarathon prediction is at 2:01, which would be 9min faster than my current pb. Feels kinda hard to believe that, even if i'm very active and know what I'm capable of.
Maybe you're not giving yourself enough credit 🙂 but I know what you mean. I've had that races before. When you break it down to what pace you have to sustain to hit a certain goal it seems way too difficult - but then I've done it with some spare too!
@@NutritionTriathlon yeah maybe. Maybe it's also hard for me to do this performance out of my regular training since I'm not racing 5ks. To not come close to my halfmarathon prediction after 1.9km swim and 90k bike was pretty logic to me. Maybe I should just attend a 5k race someday :)
In college my garmin always predicted my 5k to be like 17:30 even though in my XC 8k’s I would split low 16’s and then run 3k more. I was even wearing my watch lol
How weird, sounds like something really wasn't adding up then! Spicy times!
I have oposite problem..Garmin thinks I can run all distances much faster than I can for 5k predicts 18:09,but my best time is 20:08 and for 10k predicts 38:24, but in reality I have 42:00..the same with longer distances. So I have to somehow unlock my real potencial I gues :D
Sounds like a great challenge 😉
I run today half marathon 2.02, garmin predicted 1.58. I tried to run with pace 5.40(even slower than predicton) , but last kilometers where hard for me. Weather was perfect...
Well, sounds like it was still quite close! How was your nutrition? 🙂
My 5k-10k times are pretty accurate.
My 21k and 42k little optimistic.
Im fast but lack endurance for 21k 42k.
(5k 17:38 and 42k 3:23)
With my 5k time i should be able to run sub 3 marathon but i lack endurance.
Thats why garmins are wrong for either 5k or 42k.
Nice 5k time! Yeah, as others have mentioned, the predictions definitely have to be taken with a pinch of salt and you have to make sure you're trained for that distance for them to be accurate!
My Garmin race predictor has gone from 19:50 5k to a 20:36 5k in 3 weeks without any massive changes in my training
Interesting! What sort of training do you do?a mix of intensities?
Not. My watch says I would run a 5K in 26 minutes, but I ran an easy 22 min a few weeks back and have only been training better since.
Yeah pretty far out for you then. That's a big gap for a 5k
My Garmin predicted a 3:02:08 marathon when I ran 2:53:10. Then after I ran 2:53:10 it adjusted my prediction to 3:01:46...
🤦C'mon Garmin, you can do better!
All my race predictions are about 5% too optimistic than my actual race performance.
I just run 5k PB in August for 19:40, garmin thinks I can run 18:33. Garmin says I can run 3:10 Marathon, I finished my first marathon last Sunday in 3:19.
And it’s not like I run too fast at the beginning, my marathon is perfectly executed, I run the entire race almost even pace, pass the halfway point in 1:39:01. The last 2k I did slowed by 10s per K, I didn’t push hard since I know I made my goal of 320 already.
Congrats on the marathon time, that's awesome. I know that feeling well of hitting your goal so then mentally checking out a bit.
@@NutritionTriathlon I mentally checked out during the marathon race and stumble and fell just 9K in, thankfully just little cut on the knee, nothing serious. The fall did wake me up for sure.
how to get the lactate threshold pace my fr 255 doesnt have it
Not sure I'm afraid. From what I can tell online it should have it. Have you had it for long?
@@NutritionTriathlon i have had it for couple of months already, look it up seems it requires me to use a chest hrm, do you use one regularly? if so is it one from the garmin?
I use the Polar Verity for HR. Optical heart rate, but seems very accurate and far nicer to use (IMO) than a chest strap.
amzn.to/3s1beuM (amazon affiliate link) to the one I use
@@dhalsimtate the FR 255 does have it, you have to use the chest hrm and in the run app just before you start it, hold the up button, then choose training and the the lactate test. i use a H10 from polar, so the brand doesn't matter. hartrate is also quite a bit lower using a chest hrm.
Considering all other metrics that i read on my Garmin, I can only see: Garmin has no idea of whats going on.
Hahah, fair enough. You sound very sure about that! 😆
Ya Garmin predicts i run a 20:25 5k but I run a 18:18 so it’s just way off
on the fr965 it takes rest/recovery into account aswell as training readyness wich actualy tends to be pretty accurate. not sure if othe wathes have all these features but after training you need to bring your trainning readyness up and then check your metrics and they will change more than just sfter a training session
@@qiyo2812mine has said I can run a 17:16 for the longest time but I’ve ran about a minute faster multiple times
@@qiyo2812why would it predict slower if you have ran a 18:18
my garmin prediction is a lot faster than i actually run, my fastest 5k so far has been 21:06 but garmin tells me i can do it in around 17:50. i haven't raced the other distances but in the marathon it predicted a 3:04:00 while i actually ran a 3:55:40. i only started running again after a few years off in july 2023 so maybe i'm still learning how to push myself with maximal effort (i always seem to have a
You run a 21:06 5k yet have a
Honestly, I have something similar and I'm 31! I have some friends who can push themselves to the absolute max the whole time, but I have a hard time getting there. I'm also similar with having a burst of speed left in a 5k at the end and even something similar at the end of a half marathon. I think we're all wired to work differently! But it sounds like you're going the right way 💪
@@dli960 a 2:55/km pace is 17.5s/100m or 70s/400m, is that really a remarkable speed for a 10 second sprint? there are plenty of unremarkable people at or going for the whole 5k at a second or two from that pace, i personally know at least 3. i don't know if you see everybody over 21 mins like the people from wall E but calling a gps error here just tells everyone that you've never been to an athletics track.
It’s more accurate in my experience the More you run with it and at different lengths and intensities. Some predictions are considering taper I believe as well
@@BiDiNFitness oh that's interesting i feel i've never really done a taper properly, maybe i could reach these predictions with a taper. i feel like i do have a lot of variety in my efforts but mostly i am just really a beginner, i ran a 20:12 parkrun (strava said 19:56 5k but i'm not counting it yet) like 2 days after my original comment so i do feel like the lack of experience with finding those higher gears before the finish is my biggest limiting factor atm.
Garmin says marathon is 3:47 but i did a marathon 3:22... As more as zone 1 and zone 2 you do as much Garmin is of.
Agreed, low intensity work seems to blindside Garmin a little bit and it doesn't add it into calculations
What Garmin watch model is this?
Forerunner 955
I got my Garmin 1 week ago, it thinks I can run a 5k in 25 mins when my PB is 21 mins 🤷🏾♂️
You need to spend more time together ;)
my garmin is really really optimistic , is it trying to tell me i should dig deeper :')
Haha perhaps so! You know what to do then :)
Mine is shocking, predicted 10km is 35:54, ran a 10km in 31:53 not long ago.
Also predicted 5km is 16:46 which I break on a weekly basis in thresholds😂😂
Don’t get me started on the predicted half marathon pace…
Haha, gonna guess it's a little out? Nice running!
@@NutritionTriathlon just a little ahaha 🤣
Garmin is doing the adult equivalent of what Lego does, when they put ‘Age 12+’ - guys obviously wanna attempt it when we’re only 6/7 yrs old.
And when sat nav says ‘45 minutes to destination’ we wanna get there quicker.
They’re helping you compete with yourself and get more endorphins 😅
Haha, I like your thinking!
Similar experience? No. I just checked and my HM prediction is over 12 minutes faster than my PB... which I ran last month.
Oh wow, that's quite a difference! What's the bulk of your training? Intervals? Slow endurance work? And is it close for your other events like 5k or 10k?
@@NutritionTriathlon Predictions are PBs across the board, but the gap gets bigger with distance. (5k probably around 30 seconds, marathon I've never run, but I'd guess about 30 minutes). Once I figured out how to read them though, they're still useful, and I can still see the numbers go up and down. I have the same thing with online calculators. Maybe I've not been running for long enough and they'll get more accurate over time? My training is pretty much a mixed bag as I'm still getting faster at everything regardless of what I do... as long as I keep running :)
@marcusgrainger3329 so that's actually the thing with most of these metrics to be honest. Vo2 max, lactate threshold pace and lactate threshold HR, heart rate zones. They aren't going to be 100% accurate because you need lab testing for that, but the trends should be more useful because the measurement method will stay the same and specific for you.
And yep, definitely - keep running! 😀
ive run half marathon 2 weeks ago in amsterdam my race predictin was 2:27:45 and i ran 2:27:15 haha pretty accurate one for me
Oooh that is pretty close! Nice one 🙂
Yeh garmin is a good guide but 2 weeks ago I looked at my marathon prediction and it gave me a 3:11, I then ran 2:54 so I don’t know what garmins looking at really 😂
Nice one on the great marathon time and beating Garmin!!
My Garmin predicts that I can do a 5k in just over 19 minutes, and I have never in my life broken the 20 minute barrier! It's kinda frustrating! ^_^
How close do you think you are to getting under 20?
@@NutritionTriathlon so close, and yet so far. My pb is sitting at 20:27 at the moment
Keep going, you'll get there!
6 month ago my garmin fenix 5 predicted my marathon 3:01 and I run 2:54 . meanwhile I run less and now the predictor says 3:08 ,my next marathon is in 2 months. I will update this comment 😅
I want to add that I run a lot on hill course so maybe the watch can't calculate well
Look forward to seeing your update 😀 it seems like you can definitely beat Garmin!
I beat my garmin prediction by something like 10 minutes and my predicted time still didn't change.
Sounds like mine!
my garmin's predictions have been consistently too optimistic, by 10-15% :)
That's how mine used to be, but it's the other way now!
You’re too kind - 3 minutes off on a HM time (especially one in the 1:30s) strikes me as being pretty far off. That’s about a 0:10/km difference in pace, which is not trivial. And the “I just ran it faster than you’re saying I can” is classic.
I stopped paying attention to the Garmin numbers. They can sap morale when they tell you you’re “maintaining fitness” or your performance condition is “baseline” when you’re clearly getting fitter. One issue I see is that there is a massive lag in the numbers. So if you start training for a race, the numbers actually reflect where you were a few weeks ago. I think Garmin over-corrected vs. a few years ago, when their predictions were famously way too optimistic.
Haha, maybe you're right there. Especially if I think if it wasn't as hot I would have ran it quicker, and none of my training (which Garmin would have been basing my times off) was in the heat. Most people's times for this race was about 3 minutes slower than last year, so I should have been sub 1:30. So potentially far off.
Totally agree with you about the rest. It's so easy to get sidetracked by the numbers when they aren't reflective of your true fitness!
Interesting point about them flipping their approach to race predictions. My 5k prediction used to be way too quick for what I was capable of!
The only thing more off than race predictor is pacepro
Hah, not a fan then?
Which Garmin is that?
Forerunner 955
My race predictors are shit, it says 17:33 for a 5k, while I have run a 15:20 5k
Bit different 😂
This is the shittiest functionality of garmin. It litterally doesn’t work. Currently my 5k is 16’47 and my 10k is 34’13 (updated last week and 2 weeks ago) but for garmin it was like 17’30 for 5k and like 38’ for 10k so yes that’s not accurate
Yeah really not close for you then. Some users in the comments have had very accurate predictions though!
Omg Cheltenham harriers track
🙂
I can't get within 20 minutes of my half prediction in garmin
Interesting, so yours is predicting a much faster time than you can do? A big variation here in the comments then
@@NutritionTriathlon It is pretty well bang on what my half pb is. I did this on a track 3 years ago but haven't done anything fast since. I am trying to get through some injuries that have been holding me back but running reasonably slow every day.
My predicted marathon is 9 minutes faster than my pb. The 5 and 10k are predicted better than my pb's but close to what I could have potentially run at my absolute fittest or around the time I ran the track time trial half.
I'm not too sure how it factors in running history into these predictions. I probably need to do the threshold testing because it may be using an old measurement as a big factor in its algorithm
Yeah, I think there is an element of that, and I'm pretty sure you have to run a specific amount of time at threshold during a workout for it to auto update. So I guess your slower runs haven't affected that part of it
Garmin predict is wrong hahah
I ran 10k in 32'35 5k in 15'41
And the watch says
10k in 35'46 and 5k in 16'45 😂😂
Slightly different then 😃 Great running!
‘So I think for beginners this is a reasonable thing to consider‘. Dude you just ran a 1:32 half marathon - you are a beginner?
Ah, probably not the best explanation of things then! What I meant was that in using my results, it seemed like my Garmin was somewhat close to the prediction. So if you had no idea at all about what sort of pace you should run, then it might be reasonable to use your Garmin's suggested pace as that might be close to correct. Hope that makes sense!
I just ran a half in 1:21:30 and my Garmin still predicts a 1:31:58 (it was predicting 1:36:XX at times).
Very wrong then 😁 congrats on a great time!
Very wrong then 😁 congrats on a great time!
@@NutritionTriathlonThanks, its a 3 mins PB. The predictor is hopeless in my case.
Yeah not great is it? 😅
my garmin thinks i can run an half in 1:36 after i just ran one in 1:51🤣
😅 A little bit out then
My garmin think i can run a 17:30 5k while i’m running a 19:20😂
Sounds like what it used to be for me! Now my 5k is just getting slower 😂
I was 25 Minutes faster in a Marathon as my garmin 🤣
Nice! 😀 Far quicker then!
Garmin seems to be a little dumb here🤣
😅
These are rookie numbers! my estimated times all are better. By LT tempo and vo2max are lower tho :D
Haha, alright showoff 😉 yeah it's interesting to see how the times change in comparison to the values!
you chew very fast, LOLOL
😉 a skill developed over years