Oh Tom I can't even tell you how much I enjoy watching these analysis videos, I love all the reactions too but seeing this I know I gotta get a good coffee and just enjoy the magnets mhmmm
You know the ESC season has come under steam when Tom brings out the magnets ! On top of that lovely graphics, stats, what else do we need ? I'm happy Belgium and The Netherkands are again close to eachother for that friendly rivalry ! It's not going to be easy for Belgium to qualify, I'm already worried somehow.
‘Sorry, no’ above San Marino cracked me up. I’m still recovering from last year’s Una Voce per San Marino. Excited to listen to your reaction to songs from Pesma Evrovozije!
With Australia, you have to remember the bond with Denmark, as our queen is Australian. - She's the reason why Australia got invited to do a halftime show when Denmark hosted in '14 - which then led to them being invited as participants the next year. 🙂
For me, this draw couldn't have gone better, so I'm happy! Let me turn on the trivia machine: Greece and Finland are in the same semi final again after previously having an 11-year streak from 2010 - 2021. Albania's and Armenia's streak from 2017 - 2024 ended though. All Pot 2 countries are in the same semi final AND same half as last year 😲 Ukraine - SF 1 first half Poland - SF 1 first half Azerbaijan - SF 1 second half Armenia - SF 2 first half Georgia - SF 2 second half Israel - SF 2 second half Croatia has a 5 year streak in the first semi final, while Georgia has a 5 year streak in the second semi final. Iceland & Belgium join Finland in most SF 1 participations: 12 Denmark & Georgia also have 12 participations in the second semi final. Luxembourg is once again separated from the other Benelux countries. Will France vote for them? Azerbaijan & Armenia and Albania & Serbia have been avoided, but Serbia & Montenegro are together. All Baltics have been drawn into the first half. Also, Latvia is in their lucky semi final, they have all chances to qualify now 😄 Funny enough, Switzerland and Norway are also frequently together, and Switzerland was drawn to vote in Norway's semi final 😄 Also, Austria & Australia again... Please put them as far apart as possible in the running order to avoid confusion. 0:55 My guess is that you can't un-withdraw. 1:15 You've filmed Serbia, but not Slovenia? Serbia is only in a month! 3:35 Not as unlucky as Serbia with their 8 year streak (not counting 2020) 4:25 A song performing last not qualifying has happened in 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021. That's every four years, so this year again? 10:55 Slovenia has a 2-2-2-2 pattern, so if that continues, they're not qualifying this year. 11:55 And Anna was a televote qualifier, it's juries that eliminated her. 12:55 Ukraine could've lost it in 2012 if only televoters decided. 17:45 Georgia must be the luckiest when it comes to second half draws though. 18:00 If it was televote only, they'd have the longest streak besides Sweden & Ukraine (instead of Norway) 18:20 The release is scheduled for March. Definitely a good thing Czechia were drawn into the other semi final. 21:10 They might as well call themselves Rest of the World. 24:30 Were you meant to say second half? 27:15 I don't think it'll be in German, but of course you didn't know yet who was chosen. 27:30 This aged well! 30:55 I'm so sad, that was one of my favourite songs of the whole season 😭 I really wanted to see the performance 😔 31:45 Lithuania got SO lucky here. 34:55 Czechia didn't really fit into Pot 1, why were they there? They have nothing to do with the Baltics or Benelux. 36:50 Finland has actually never failed in the second semi final, but then again, they're hardly ever drawn into it. 39:35 Does this count though? 40:40 Malta & Serbia redemption arc for bad running order slots 41:45 Yeah, the second half color scheme is so satisfying 😍
haha i love the random trivia i have a lot of Serbian subs asking for PZE - ive filmed it but might edit others first 24:30 yes youre right, i missed that in editing
i think we should also look into televote qualifiers for the 2016-2024 years rather than them summed up with juries when we want to check the chances of qualification in 2025. SEMI1: Q: Sweden (100% attempts televote qualified); Ukraine (100%); Cyprus (100%); Norway (88%); Portugal (83%); Estonia (75%); Poland (75%); Netherlands (71%); Croatia (63%) Borderline: Azerbaijan (50%); Belgium (50%) NQ: Iceland (38%); Slovenia (38%); Albania (38%); San Marino (25%) SEMI2: Q: Luxembourg (100% (1/1, obviously)); Lithuania (88%); Serbia (88%); Greece (75%); Finland (75%); Armenia (71%); Israel (71%); Australia (63%); Austria (50%); Czechia (50%) NQ: Malta (38%); Ireland (25%); Latvia (25%); Denmark (25%); Georgia (13%); Montenegro (0%) I think this also shows that more fan favourites have fallen to the first semi final, including unbeatable Sweden and Ukraine
So this that will be the first time Serbia 🇷🇸 is drawn in the 2nd half of Semi 2 and Luxembourg 🇱🇺 meets Czechia 🇨🇿 and Montenegro 🇲🇪 in the same semi final for the first time, However another interesting fact I realised is Ukraine 🇺🇦 still hasn’t shared the same semi final with Czechia 🇨🇿 since 2008 when the 3 night format began !
I actually think Poland got one of the unluckiest draws this year, alongside Montenegro. We’re in the first half and most of our friendly and diaspora countries (UK, Ireland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia and maybe Australia) are all in sf2. In saying that, we have Ukraine, Iceland and Norway, and if we choose Justyna Steczkowska then I think an NQ is pretty unlikely. Also I think Luna would have qualified last year in almost any other position, but she ended up between probably the two biggest fan favourites of the year. That has to be the worst running order luck we’ve seen in years.
Fantastic video and, as always to be expected, top info done with humour. Thanks for all the work you put into these. Great work and much appreciated! PS love the professional graphics. 🙂
MARK MY WORDS TOM, if Latvia sends Līgo we will have one of the most epic stageings! Imagine a dark stage with fire elements, with a huge sun that rises in the songs brakedown at the end, and backround vocalists with traditional flower crowns and traditional outfits. There are so many epic traditions we can include in this. (if we somehow mess this up we deserve to never qualify again)
I really hope that our neighbours Montenegro🇲🇪 won't be put on 2nd or 3rd slot. They really get a bad deal with this draw😭😭😭. Overall ,imo, my country 🇭🇷 could get a little better draw cause semi 1 has potential to be the stronger one (with favourites like 🇸🇪🇪🇪🇧🇪, than very good🇦🇱, also 🇵🇹 with very good NF this year plus powerhouses like 🇺🇦 and 🇳🇱 which I think will also bring something good), but yes, it would really be a pity not to qualify when Dora is so good this year. Fantastic analyse again, Tom.🔥🔥
Both semis are so stacked 0-0 Here are my super early predictions for both semis (just a shot in the dark and my gut feeling) Semi 1: Qualifiers: - Estonia 🇪🇪 - Iceland 🇮🇸 - Poland 🇵🇱 - Portugal 🇵🇹 - Sweden 🇸🇪 - Ukraine 🇺🇦 - Albania 🇦🇱 - Belgium 🇧🇪 - Cyprus 🇨🇾 - Netherlands 🇳🇱 Possible qualifiers: - Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 - Norway 🇳🇴 - San Marino 🇸🇲 Semi 2: Qualifiers: - Armenia 🇦🇲 - Australia 🇦🇺 - Austria 🇦🇹 - Greece 🇬🇷 - Ireland 🇮🇪 - Czechia 🇨🇿 - Finland 🇫🇮 - Israel 🇮🇱 - Luxembourg 🇱🇺 - Malta 🇲🇹 Possible qualifiers: - Lithuania 🇱🇹 - Georgia 🇬🇪 - Serbia 🇷🇸
My qualifying picks: Semi-final 1: - Estonia (Espresso Macchiato) - Poland (Gaja) - Portugal (Tristeza) - Sweden - Ukraine (No Time to Cry) - Albania - Belgium (Fille à Papa) - Croatia (Južina) - Cyprus? - Netherlands? Semi-final 2: - Greece - Latvia (Līgo) - Lithuania - Finland (ICH KOMME) - Israel (will likely qualify no matter what) - Luxembourg - Malta (Kant/Heaven Sent) - Serbia (Durum Durum) - Armenia/Australia/Austria/Czechia? Let's go!!! Thanks Tom for the great analysis 😊
I knew Serbia would be the unluckiest :/ literally jumped out of my seat when i found out them and Malta are 2nd half MALTA THIS IS YOUR CHANCE DONT MESS IT UP PLEASE
Semi Final 2 has a lot of potential for more underdog/comeback stories like with Dons last year. Ireland, Latvia and Georgia all broke their NQ streaks last year and there's a good chance they'll continue on their positive trajectory. The Ludvig would make a great opener to the semi. Malta, Denmark and Montenegro are on negative streaks, but could turn their luck around being in the weaker semi. Denmark and Malta getting second half draws boosts their chances and for Serbia to finally get a second half draw in the semi must feel like seeing the Sun after living in darkness for years. Semi 2 really seems to be the semi of opportunities for a lot of countries.
Agree with pretty much everything said here, the tiny exception being that Sweden would've been "consistently sending quality" - cookie-cutter, format pop songs are not quality 😉 But yeah, the semifinals seem pretty much equal for now (though semi 2 is personally the more interesting to me, my country being there, and such an interesting mix of countries in it with us this year!) 🙂
It’s so nice to not have to worry about my country qualifying for once. I just hope Switzerland will still send a high quality song. It would be sad to end up last in the final.
Just a note if you haven't noticed it yet: UMK Instagram just teased that one of the interval songs might be "Shanghain Valot", which is from 2006 and is possibly the best song in Finnish national selection history that was not selected (all the best songs are concentrated always in the same year 🤣🥲) and at that time stagings were not such a big thing so can't wait to see that song in big stage. That song could be in Top 10 even in modern Eurovision years. If that song gets to be interval act, then im hoping that the next song to get "payback" would be Circle of Light from 2017, possibly the second best song ever that was not selected, because of totally failure staging.
Serbia has a chance to so really well this year. They have few songs that are so unique and fun. They also have Montenegro, Austria, Germany Australia, Greece that give them televote points
I think it's not about qualification based on previous contest, instead current song selection eg. Norway hasn't enough good songs and now could be danger for NQ? Iceland however could be back in the game based on NF song selection.
I loved the bit about the advantage of 2nd half, however you gloss over the fact that slots 10 and 11 are almost equally as unlucky as 2 and 3. anyway, was glued to this for the 48 minutes.
If JOSH or HENKA are selected in Portugal, you bet, we pass the ESC25 semi-final.. !!! 😍 HENKA may even be top 5 overall, while JOSH, if he does it right.. may even win the whole thing! 😉
The jury from Australia last year was in at least part voyager and well they loved ireland last year in a reaction video before last eurovsion. So no suprices.
Quick tip- at 39:43 you've got "Le Poupée Monte Le Son" but it's "La Poupée Monte Le Son"- just in case that's a graphic that you have saved and can edit (I only noticed because I keep making that mistake especially out loud).
Since you haven't filmed the video for Polish pre-selections yet I just wanted to mention that today Sw@da and Niczos released a revamped version of their song "Lusterka". (The title of that video is just: "Lusterka (Eurovision Version)" on their own channel. But it's easier to find by searching the title.) I feel like it might be relevant, because the version they've submitted before (including the live performance with most views) is significantly shorter and has a different ending. As far as I know the revamp is the one they'll perform during the NF. The live is fun to watch too, though - it shows their energy and style pretty well.
I got frozen for few seconds when Croatia and Serbia remained only 2 countries in our pot in draw for SF1, so when that girl opened envelope and sent Croatia in bloodbath SF1 instead of us, I was very, very happy. I doubt we could pass in GF from SF1, but chances are much better to do it from SF2. Anyway, very decent analysis. Keep it good work Tom. 👍👍👍
The old HoD of MGP chose the songs, but the new HoD had to work with them. So Stig Karlsen kinda screwed us over in Norway😓 I still think we will qualify, though
Great video as always Tom. I just wanted to answer your question at 17:53 if Italy tends to give Croatia points and the answer is YES. There is indeed a big croatian diaspora in Italy and also a italian one in Croatia, a lot of ppl somehow dont know of. I mean italian is also the second regional language of Istria in Croatia And speaking on diaspora ingeneral, it suprises me how ppl always forget we had a war not even 30 years ago where A LOT of croatians flew the country mainly to Italy(60.000), Austria(90.000), Switerzland(80.000), Germany (400.000) and Sweden (35.000) in Europe. We have a big diaspora in those countries and with Switerzland, Italy and Sweden three of them are voting in the semi. And not to forget to mention that Canada (400.000) and the states (600.000) have alone a diaspora of one MILLIONE croatians and another 400.000 in south America (mainly Argentina and Chile), 100.000 in New Seeland and anotehr 400.000 in Australia. The croatian diaspora all around the world is today bigger than Croatias population and that says a lot. Thats why Croatia did so well in the ROTW voting the last two years and as we know ROTW is also voting in the semi 😅
REMEMBER Everyone to root for Denmark this year like u did to Georgia last year. So we can break the curse. Im personally as a dane scared what we bring cause i know DR. Dont care about it / is not serious as much as we people in Denmark do.
Glad Norway got help with 2nd half draw. I think people saying we're a def NQ are jumping the gun. Wait and see what the artists give us on stage. I was more worried last year, and with good reason. Hoping we can keep that qualification streak!
As much as I rate Guy Sebastian, he has already had a turn for Australia. Sheppard (who has applied for ESC several times) is doing a European tour leading up to Eurovision.
Still too early to tell, but I bet there will be 1 or 2 shocking non qualifiers in the 1st semi : Estonia (even if it's Tommy Cash) and Norway. I'm not too confident about these two. I live in France so I'm glad to vote in the 2nd semi which is more-open ended and exciting. I'm on the same boat as you and hoping for Denmark coming through !
You asked about who usually gives points to Czechia 🇨🇿, I’ve noticed that Finland and Czechia have a tendency to swap points - not entirely out of charity though, but whenever either has had an okay song that hasn’t done super well, they tend to be among the few countries that gave some points and in 2023 Finland gave Czechia the most points. So I think that if Czechia sends at least decently nice song, they are guaranteed to receive some love from Finland - especially now that all of Finland’s closest allies are on SF1.
@@ESCTom Yep, even though those two countries aren’t the most obvious friends, both do share Germany, Poland and Russia as major influences at some point of their respective histories and that is nowadays somewhat reflected on musical culture and taste as well. And off course there is a historical sympathetic fondness between smaller countries that narrowly escaped being entirely swallowed by the iron curtain, but had to sacrifice a huge chunk of their autonomy for the Soviet Union and then convince the Western allies that they definitely didn’t do that by choice.
I'm Polish/German and devastated I won't be able to vote for Poland from Germany when they finally have a good selection for once 😂Didn't really care much for Luna's song last year but now that there's a really good chance they're gonna send a song I love I won't be able to vote for them
@@vixwza8553 hopefully if Poland can choose the right song, it may be strong enough to qualify from semifinal one if everything goes well. You can’t just rely on diaspora voting.
My worry is that if "Gaja" goes to ESC there's a pretty high chance it will open the show. This is exactly the type of song they'd pick as an opener. Loud, fun, anthemic, accessible etc. And going first is not ideal. (Unless it somehow becomes a huge fan favourite between March and May and EBU wouldn't want Justyna to be too early.)
I think for the most part (there are absolutely exceptions to this LMAO), I trust a country loving a song or nf over eurofans not from that country (also for me I'm not even European so I'm still from the outside looking in no matter how many things I know atp). But Ukraine would have to send an absolute abomination to not qualify for the forseeable future. Their worst case scenario is placing outside of the top 10 of the final. Based on the current state of the national finals, I wouldn't put it past Denmark to have one of the stronger group of songs.
@@ESCTom you’re welcome. In fact, I have a document called Eurovision statistics with different prompts. I would love to create my own Eurovision stats website to share my unique findings.
I think going forward the Q rate should be analysed through just 100% televote seeing as that's how the semi's are now. Also Denmark Q'd in 2019 due to the vote counting hiccup. so really 1/6 Q rate. Making Lithuania a 6/6 and Poland a 3/6. Never not gobsmacking that it happened.
i disagree, qualification is also about a delegation being able to strategise, and managing your act on a 50/50 system is just as relevant for how a delegation performs
We just NEED Nini Iris from Georgia and there will be our 2nd qualification in a row,but because of shitty politics it might be Mariam Shengelia and it HURTS so BAD, WE NEED NINI PLEASE!!!!!!!
Correct me if I’m wrong but has San Marino 🇸🇲 not been allocated to perform in the 1st half of the 1st semi final since they began participating all the way back in 2008 ?
I don’t know about that, but there’s an almost 50-50 break between San Marino being sorted in the first and second semifinal. In fact, this is the first time since 2019 they’ve been sorted in the first semifinal. San Marino: 7/8 (2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2025)/(2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)
Brilliant commentary and analysis. You would seem to have a degree in statistics. Is this your main source of income? If not it should be. If I get an invite for EUROSONG, (which I applied for) I would love to say hi.
banger of a video as always, we're really into eurovision season now 🔥 so nervous for the uk entry to be revealed but i'm v excited for adonxs to release his song a banger is pending 🔥 excited for melfest as well hoping to watch it in full this year, only watched the final last year but loved it
Semi Final 1 looks the strongest I am impressed with Belgium and Portugal national selections they have great songs the countries who I think is in danger of not qualifying are Iceland Slovenia and maybe Norway I am also not very impressed with there songs maybe Lighter is the best option idk and do not count out San Marino out yet yes they don't have friends in this Semi Final but if they choose Grisana Kohoney I think they can qualify with her since there is Ukraine also in the same semi final and now onto Semi Final 2 the country who I think is in danger is Montenegro unfortunately I hope they don't get the death slot yes there is Serbia same Semi Final but I don't think it will be enough and this is a great opportunity for Malta and I hope they do the correct choice and select Kantera I can definitely see this get top 10 televote points since there is UK Armenia Ireland and even Australia because they usually always give points to Malta
Another thing with Anna Berghandall is with the new voting system she would’ve qualified over Ireland , based on the fact your Irish I suppose your happy that didn’t happen
Wait...Greta withdrew from Supernova?!?!? *looks for Eurovision news n it* Dammit...get well soon...I want you to come back and win Supernova!!! Monsters was a fire song!!!
Oh Tom I can't even tell you how much I enjoy watching these analysis videos, I love all the reactions too but seeing this I know I gotta get a good coffee and just enjoy the magnets mhmmm
🫶🏻
what is my life when im so excited about magnets😭😄💙
God the graphics you use are so much better than the horrific eyesores on the official Eurovision channels
the graphic design they're using reminds me so much of that unpleasant gradient meme
Apparently I'm the only one who likes the Basel graphics
@@willardprenfrew4303No, I like them too. Has a retro feel to it 😍
@@Phaios95 I mean yeah I like them but the colour choices are a little questionable in some places
@@willardprenfrew4303 I like them too, bright colours are fine, i just want them to stop doing stuff like putting magenta on red
You know the ESC season has come under steam when Tom brings out the magnets ! On top of that lovely graphics, stats, what else do we need ? I'm happy Belgium and The Netherkands are again close to eachother for that friendly rivalry ! It's not going to be easy for Belgium to qualify, I'm already worried somehow.
Worried about belgium? lol if they choosr the right song this saturday the will Q easy
THE MAGNETS ARE BACK YALLL
Can we buy the magnets?? Ideas for the fridge 😂
This means ESC season has officially begun lmao
The way I have been refreshing your page since the draw waiting for this video
😂
Tom you are the best ESC vid maker 👍
Thank you Pete 💙
I believe the 'leak' of Måns' song was probably the edit going around where it was actually In the Middle by Natalia Barbu 😭😭😭
stooooooop 😭
i cant listen to leaks, so i didnt know that
Thank you ESC Tom for all the work and professionalism you put into making your videos!!!!
❤️
46:40 when you said it, my heart broke again for Aijā
😭
‘Sorry, no’ above San Marino cracked me up.
I’m still recovering from last year’s Una Voce per San Marino.
Excited to listen to your reaction to songs from Pesma Evrovozije!
Thank you for all this effort, my favorite ESC channel
I'm happy we (Serbia) aren't going to be put in a death slot for a 4 year in a row. 😂
With Australia, you have to remember the bond with Denmark, as our queen is Australian. - She's the reason why Australia got invited to do a halftime show when Denmark hosted in '14 - which then led to them being invited as participants the next year. 🙂
For me, this draw couldn't have gone better, so I'm happy!
Let me turn on the trivia machine:
Greece and Finland are in the same semi final again after previously having an 11-year streak from 2010 - 2021.
Albania's and Armenia's streak from 2017 - 2024 ended though.
All Pot 2 countries are in the same semi final AND same half as last year 😲
Ukraine - SF 1 first half
Poland - SF 1 first half
Azerbaijan - SF 1 second half
Armenia - SF 2 first half
Georgia - SF 2 second half
Israel - SF 2 second half
Croatia has a 5 year streak in the first semi final, while Georgia has a 5 year streak in the second semi final.
Iceland & Belgium join Finland in most SF 1 participations: 12
Denmark & Georgia also have 12 participations in the second semi final.
Luxembourg is once again separated from the other Benelux countries. Will France vote for them?
Azerbaijan & Armenia and Albania & Serbia have been avoided, but Serbia & Montenegro are together.
All Baltics have been drawn into the first half. Also, Latvia is in their lucky semi final, they have all chances to qualify now 😄
Funny enough, Switzerland and Norway are also frequently together, and Switzerland was drawn to vote in Norway's semi final 😄
Also, Austria & Australia again... Please put them as far apart as possible in the running order to avoid confusion.
0:55 My guess is that you can't un-withdraw.
1:15 You've filmed Serbia, but not Slovenia? Serbia is only in a month!
3:35 Not as unlucky as Serbia with their 8 year streak (not counting 2020)
4:25 A song performing last not qualifying has happened in 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021. That's every four years, so this year again?
10:55 Slovenia has a 2-2-2-2 pattern, so if that continues, they're not qualifying this year.
11:55 And Anna was a televote qualifier, it's juries that eliminated her.
12:55 Ukraine could've lost it in 2012 if only televoters decided.
17:45 Georgia must be the luckiest when it comes to second half draws though.
18:00 If it was televote only, they'd have the longest streak besides Sweden & Ukraine (instead of Norway)
18:20 The release is scheduled for March.
Definitely a good thing Czechia were drawn into the other semi final.
21:10 They might as well call themselves Rest of the World.
24:30 Were you meant to say second half?
27:15 I don't think it'll be in German, but of course you didn't know yet who was chosen.
27:30 This aged well!
30:55 I'm so sad, that was one of my favourite songs of the whole season 😭 I really wanted to see the performance 😔
31:45 Lithuania got SO lucky here.
34:55 Czechia didn't really fit into Pot 1, why were they there? They have nothing to do with the Baltics or Benelux.
36:50 Finland has actually never failed in the second semi final, but then again, they're hardly ever drawn into it.
39:35 Does this count though?
40:40 Malta & Serbia redemption arc for bad running order slots
41:45 Yeah, the second half color scheme is so satisfying 😍
haha i love the random trivia
i have a lot of Serbian subs asking for PZE - ive filmed it but might edit others first
24:30 yes youre right, i missed that in editing
i think we should also look into televote qualifiers for the 2016-2024 years rather than them summed up with juries when we want to check the chances of qualification in 2025.
SEMI1:
Q: Sweden (100% attempts televote qualified); Ukraine (100%); Cyprus (100%); Norway (88%); Portugal (83%); Estonia (75%); Poland (75%); Netherlands (71%); Croatia (63%)
Borderline: Azerbaijan (50%); Belgium (50%)
NQ: Iceland (38%); Slovenia (38%); Albania (38%); San Marino (25%)
SEMI2:
Q: Luxembourg (100% (1/1, obviously)); Lithuania (88%); Serbia (88%); Greece (75%); Finland (75%); Armenia (71%); Israel (71%); Australia (63%); Austria (50%); Czechia (50%)
NQ: Malta (38%); Ireland (25%); Latvia (25%); Denmark (25%); Georgia (13%); Montenegro (0%)
I think this also shows that more fan favourites have fallen to the first semi final, including unbeatable Sweden and Ukraine
i addressed why i didnt do this in another comment
Goodness the data you bring up all the time is amazing. My analysis brain is loving all your videos 😭💖
So this that will be the first time Serbia 🇷🇸 is drawn in the 2nd half of Semi 2 and Luxembourg 🇱🇺 meets Czechia 🇨🇿 and Montenegro 🇲🇪 in the same semi final for the first time,
However another interesting fact I realised is Ukraine 🇺🇦 still hasn’t shared the same semi final with Czechia 🇨🇿 since 2008 when the 3 night format began !
I’ve been waiting for this video since the draw great work Tom
SERBIA AND ALBANIA NOT IN THE FIRST HALF!!!
finally 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Tom you're always a joy to watch. Thanks for all the efforts you're putting in every Eurovision
YES! Was waiting for this one🎉 Keep up the great work Tom.
Thank you!
Had a total nightmare with this file cos of all the effects 😭
Tom, you're fabolous! Second year watching your stats. Waiting for your MGP analays. I think we have a couple. Love from 🇧🇻
I actually think Poland got one of the unluckiest draws this year, alongside Montenegro. We’re in the first half and most of our friendly and diaspora countries (UK, Ireland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia and maybe Australia) are all in sf2. In saying that, we have Ukraine, Iceland and Norway, and if we choose Justyna Steczkowska then I think an NQ is pretty unlikely. Also I think Luna would have qualified last year in almost any other position, but she ended up between probably the two biggest fan favourites of the year. That has to be the worst running order luck we’ve seen in years.
I really hope Montenegro gets some love from the running order.
You keep up with the high standard on your videos. Great analysis!
Fantastic video and, as always to be expected, top info done with humour. Thanks for all the work you put into these. Great work and much appreciated! PS love the professional graphics. 🙂
thanks Jen
Can't wait to welcome all these artists at my home in Basel 🫶
MARK MY WORDS TOM, if Latvia sends Līgo we will have one of the most epic stageings! Imagine a dark stage with fire elements, with a huge sun that rises in the songs brakedown at the end, and backround vocalists with traditional flower crowns and traditional outfits. There are so many epic traditions we can include in this. (if we somehow mess this up we deserve to never qualify again)
I’ll be watching him in supernova
Thank you for your analysis! I think the semis are pretty equal this year with the information we have now!
I'm really crossing my fingers for Denmark. Give us at least 1 strong song that could qualify ❤
As an Irishman I’m pretty confident if we send Bobbi or Emmy we should go through
Ah amazing ! ESC season has officially begun ✨ Thanks for all the work you put into these videos Tom 🎵
❤️
I really hope that our neighbours Montenegro🇲🇪 won't be put on 2nd or 3rd slot. They really get a bad deal with this draw😭😭😭. Overall ,imo, my country 🇭🇷 could get a little better draw cause semi 1 has potential to be the stronger one (with favourites like 🇸🇪🇪🇪🇧🇪, than very good🇦🇱, also 🇵🇹 with very good NF this year plus powerhouses like 🇺🇦 and 🇳🇱 which I think will also bring something good), but yes, it would really be a pity not to qualify when Dora is so good this year.
Fantastic analyse again, Tom.🔥🔥
Both semis are so stacked 0-0
Here are my super early predictions for both semis (just a shot in the dark and my gut feeling)
Semi 1:
Qualifiers:
- Estonia 🇪🇪
- Iceland 🇮🇸
- Poland 🇵🇱
- Portugal 🇵🇹
- Sweden 🇸🇪
- Ukraine 🇺🇦
- Albania 🇦🇱
- Belgium 🇧🇪
- Cyprus 🇨🇾
- Netherlands 🇳🇱
Possible qualifiers:
- Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
- Norway 🇳🇴
- San Marino 🇸🇲
Semi 2:
Qualifiers:
- Armenia 🇦🇲
- Australia 🇦🇺
- Austria 🇦🇹
- Greece 🇬🇷
- Ireland 🇮🇪
- Czechia 🇨🇿
- Finland 🇫🇮
- Israel 🇮🇱
- Luxembourg 🇱🇺
- Malta 🇲🇹
Possible qualifiers:
- Lithuania 🇱🇹
- Georgia 🇬🇪
- Serbia 🇷🇸
My qualifying picks:
Semi-final 1:
- Estonia (Espresso Macchiato)
- Poland (Gaja)
- Portugal (Tristeza)
- Sweden
- Ukraine (No Time to Cry)
- Albania
- Belgium (Fille à Papa)
- Croatia (Južina)
- Cyprus?
- Netherlands?
Semi-final 2:
- Greece
- Latvia (Līgo)
- Lithuania
- Finland (ICH KOMME)
- Israel (will likely qualify no matter what)
- Luxembourg
- Malta (Kant/Heaven Sent)
- Serbia (Durum Durum)
- Armenia/Australia/Austria/Czechia?
Let's go!!! Thanks Tom for the great analysis 😊
❤️
I’m so happy for Albania , second half , Italy , Switzerland and a few Balkan countries
Even without all of that Albania would be a 100% safe qualifier imo
@ idk about 100% chanc but definitely a likely qualifier
I knew Serbia would be the unluckiest :/ literally jumped out of my seat when i found out them and Malta are 2nd half MALTA THIS IS YOUR CHANCE DONT MESS IT UP PLEASE
Semi Final 2 has a lot of potential for more underdog/comeback stories like with Dons last year.
Ireland, Latvia and Georgia all broke their NQ streaks last year and there's a good chance they'll continue on their positive trajectory. The Ludvig would make a great opener to the semi.
Malta, Denmark and Montenegro are on negative streaks, but could turn their luck around being in the weaker semi. Denmark and Malta getting second half draws boosts their chances and for Serbia to finally get a second half draw in the semi must feel like seeing the Sun after living in darkness for years.
Semi 2 really seems to be the semi of opportunities for a lot of countries.
Hello from ARMENIA 🇦🇲☑️
👋🏻
I was waiting for this one, always a highlight of the season
What a duo that would be red and guy sebastian
Agree with pretty much everything said here, the tiny exception being that Sweden would've been "consistently sending quality" - cookie-cutter, format pop songs are not quality 😉 But yeah, the semifinals seem pretty much equal for now (though semi 2 is personally the more interesting to me, my country being there, and such an interesting mix of countries in it with us this year!) 🙂
It’s so nice to not have to worry about my country qualifying for once. I just hope Switzerland will still send a high quality song. It would be sad to end up last in the final.
Serbia has been dealt such a bad hand lately as well in terms of semifinal running order, they had better not do them dirty and have them perform 9th
Charts, stats AND magnets?! 😍 Tom knows the way to Gimlo's heart 💚
Just a note if you haven't noticed it yet: UMK Instagram just teased that one of the interval songs might be "Shanghain Valot", which is from 2006 and is possibly the best song in Finnish national selection history that was not selected (all the best songs are concentrated always in the same year 🤣🥲) and at that time stagings were not such a big thing so can't wait to see that song in big stage. That song could be in Top 10 even in modern Eurovision years.
If that song gets to be interval act, then im hoping that the next song to get "payback" would be Circle of Light from 2017, possibly the second best song ever that was not selected, because of totally failure staging.
Serbia has a chance to so really well this year. They have few songs that are so unique and fun. They also have Montenegro, Austria, Germany Australia, Greece that give them televote points
wait for pze!!
Mello has a tendcy to slot the favorite in the last spot, and this year it is scarlet in that slot.
I think it's not about qualification based on previous contest, instead current song selection eg. Norway hasn't enough good songs and now could be danger for NQ? Iceland however could be back in the game based on NF song selection.
I loved the bit about the advantage of 2nd half, however you gloss over the fact that slots 10 and 11 are almost equally as unlucky as 2 and 3. anyway, was glued to this for the 48 minutes.
ill touch on that when the running order comes out ❤️
If JOSH or HENKA are selected in Portugal, you bet, we pass the ESC25 semi-final.. !!! 😍
HENKA may even be top 5 overall, while JOSH, if he does it right.. may even win the whole thing! 😉
Amazing analysis as always Tom, I really sorry to see Moldova withdrawal, I love them on esc
Such a good video!
🙏🏻
💙🇮🇱🤍🇮🇱💙🇮🇱🤍🇮🇱💙🇮🇱🤍🇮🇱💙🇮🇱🤍🇮🇱💙🇮🇱🤍
The jury from Australia last year was in at least part voyager and well they loved ireland last year in a reaction video before last eurovsion. So no suprices.
I laughed so much about the ikea knodd recycling bin
Quick tip- at 39:43 you've got "Le Poupée Monte Le Son" but it's "La Poupée Monte Le Son"- just in case that's a graphic that you have saved and can edit (I only noticed because I keep making that mistake especially out loud).
ah thank you, will change it now
@@ESCTom you're welcome. Happy to help!
Since you haven't filmed the video for Polish pre-selections yet I just wanted to mention that today Sw@da and Niczos released a revamped version of their song "Lusterka". (The title of that video is just: "Lusterka (Eurovision Version)" on their own channel. But it's easier to find by searching the title.)
I feel like it might be relevant, because the version they've submitted before (including the live performance with most views) is significantly shorter and has a different ending. As far as I know the revamp is the one they'll perform during the NF. The live is fun to watch too, though - it shows their energy and style pretty well.
ah ok, thank you for that 🙏🏻
I got frozen for few seconds when Croatia and Serbia remained only 2 countries in our pot in draw for SF1, so when that girl opened envelope and sent Croatia in bloodbath SF1 instead of us, I was very, very happy. I doubt we could pass in GF from SF1, but chances are much better to do it from SF2. Anyway, very decent analysis. Keep it good work Tom. 👍👍👍
The old HoD of MGP chose the songs, but the new HoD had to work with them. So Stig Karlsen kinda screwed us over in Norway😓 I still think we will qualify, though
Great video as always Tom. I just wanted to answer your question at 17:53 if Italy tends to give Croatia points and the answer is YES. There is indeed a big croatian diaspora in Italy and also a italian one in Croatia, a lot of ppl somehow dont know of. I mean italian is also the second regional language of Istria in Croatia
And speaking on diaspora ingeneral, it suprises me how ppl always forget we had a war not even 30 years ago where A LOT of croatians flew the country mainly to Italy(60.000), Austria(90.000), Switerzland(80.000), Germany (400.000) and Sweden (35.000) in Europe. We have a big diaspora in those countries and with Switerzland, Italy and Sweden three of them are voting in the semi. And not to forget to mention that Canada (400.000) and the states (600.000) have alone a diaspora of one MILLIONE croatians and another 400.000 in south America (mainly Argentina and Chile), 100.000 in New Seeland and anotehr 400.000 in Australia. The croatian diaspora all around the world is today bigger than Croatias population and that says a lot. Thats why Croatia did so well in the ROTW voting the last two years and as we know ROTW is also voting in the semi 😅
ah thank you for this info 🫶🏻
@@ESCTom You're welcome
REMEMBER Everyone to root for Denmark this year like u did to Georgia last year. So we can break the curse. Im personally as a dane scared what we bring cause i know DR. Dont care about it / is not serious as much as we people in Denmark do.
Portugal ❤❤❤
Glad Norway got help with 2nd half draw. I think people saying we're a def NQ are jumping the gun. Wait and see what the artists give us on stage. I was more worried last year, and with good reason. Hoping we can keep that qualification streak!
As much as I rate Guy Sebastian, he has already had a turn for Australia. Sheppard (who has applied for ESC several times) is doing a European tour leading up to Eurovision.
Montenegro really got the worst draw that they could get :(
yea, the only plus for them is IF semi final 1 ends up being a lot stronger
The EMA format is criminal 🙄
It's not crazy that Poland hasn't won yet and I doubt that we will ever will lool. Miracle would be needed,
I think Ukraine will vote for Poland, especially if they send a song in Polish, so minus 1 available spot 😅
Still too early to tell, but I bet there will be 1 or 2 shocking non qualifiers in the 1st semi : Estonia (even if it's Tommy Cash) and Norway. I'm not too confident about these two.
I live in France so I'm glad to vote in the 2nd semi which is more-open ended and exciting. I'm on the same boat as you and hoping for Denmark coming through !
You asked about who usually gives points to Czechia 🇨🇿, I’ve noticed that Finland and Czechia have a tendency to swap points - not entirely out of charity though, but whenever either has had an okay song that hasn’t done super well, they tend to be among the few countries that gave some points and in 2023 Finland gave Czechia the most points. So I think that if Czechia sends at least decently nice song, they are guaranteed to receive some love from Finland - especially now that all of Finland’s closest allies are on SF1.
yes good point about Finland, it kind of makes sense as well musically
@@ESCTom Yep, even though those two countries aren’t the most obvious friends, both do share Germany, Poland and Russia as major influences at some point of their respective histories and that is nowadays somewhat reflected on musical culture and taste as well. And off course there is a historical sympathetic fondness between smaller countries that narrowly escaped being entirely swallowed by the iron curtain, but had to sacrifice a huge chunk of their autonomy for the Soviet Union and then convince the Western allies that they definitely didn’t do that by choice.
Could You react to polish preselection? ❤😊
its coming soon
I'm Polish/German and devastated I won't be able to vote for Poland from Germany when they finally have a good selection for once 😂Didn't really care much for Luna's song last year but now that there's a really good chance they're gonna send a song I love I won't be able to vote for them
I can't vote from UK either 😢
@@vixwza8553 hopefully if Poland can choose the right song, it may be strong enough to qualify from semifinal one if everything goes well. You can’t just rely on diaspora voting.
Being honest, Poland has 4 great songs this year and I would be shocked if they NQed, especially with Gaja or Lusterka
My worry is that if "Gaja" goes to ESC there's a pretty high chance it will open the show. This is exactly the type of song they'd pick as an opener. Loud, fun, anthemic, accessible etc. And going first is not ideal.
(Unless it somehow becomes a huge fan favourite between March and May and EBU wouldn't want Justyna to be too early.)
I think for the most part (there are absolutely exceptions to this LMAO), I trust a country loving a song or nf over eurofans not from that country (also for me I'm not even European so I'm still from the outside looking in no matter how many things I know atp). But Ukraine would have to send an absolute abomination to not qualify for the forseeable future. Their worst case scenario is placing outside of the top 10 of the final.
Based on the current state of the national finals, I wouldn't put it past Denmark to have one of the stronger group of songs.
Serbia 😍😎🎉
i hope Montenegro Denmark Latvia and Georgia qualify
Serbia guaranted Qualified😊🎉
They have got to do something to compensate for the disadvantage of performing in the first half
well thats what theyre trying with voting opening immediately
@@ESCTomtrue!
The hosts did a great job 😊
yep, they were really good
I think you're gonna be disappointed with Norway unfortunately.
🇷🇸🇷🇸🇷🇸🇷🇸🇷🇸❤️❤️❤️❤️🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present to you the semi final allocation statistics current as of 2025.
Excluding Moldova, Montenegro and former/current hosts Sweden and Switzerland, out of the 29 competing countries in the semi finals,
17 have remained the same semi final as last year:
Semi Final 1:
Azerbaijan (2023, 2024, 2025)
Croatia (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Cyprus (2024, 2025)
Iceland (2024, 2025)
Poland (2024, 2025)
Portugal (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Slovenia (2024, 2025)
Ukraine ((2022, 2024, 2025)
Semi FInal 2:
Armenia (2023, 2024, 2025)
Austria (2023, 2024, 2025)
Czechia (2024, 2025)
Denmark (2023, 2024, 2025)
Georgia (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Greece (2023, 2024, 2025)
Israel (2024, 2025)
Latvia (2024, 2025)
Malta (2024, 2025)
2 (2024, 2025): Cyprus, Czechia, Iceland, Israel, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Slovenia
3 (2023, 2024, 2025): Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Greece, Ukraine
4 (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025): Portugal
5 (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025): Croatia, Georgia
Croatia and Georgia has the longest streak of remaining in the same semi finals for five years (six since they were first allocated in 2020)
Former host Sweden has returned to the first semi final after last being allocated to it in 2023
As in 2022, Montenegro has been assigned to the second semifinal.
12 countries have switched semi finals with the year of the last time they had been allocated to semi final 1 or 2:
Semi FInal 1:
Albania (2022)
Belgium (2021)
Estonia (2019)
Netherlands (2023)
Norway (2023)
San Marino (2019)
Semi final 2:
Australia (2023)
Finland (2022)
Ireland (2022)
Lithuania (2023)
Luxembourg (first time)
Serbia (2022)
Luxembourg has switched to the second semifinal for its second reappearance, so it’s a 50/50 balance.
1: Luxembourg (2025)
2:Netherlands, Norway, Australia, Lithuania (2023)
3:Albania, Finland, Ireland, Serbia (2022)
4: Belgium (2021)
6: Estonia, San Marino (2019)
Estonia and San Marino have the longest semi final switch by six years.
And now the detailed results, Montenegro and Sweden are back in, but I have removed Moldova and Switzerland due their their withdrawal and hosting respectively.
Country: #/# (Semi final 1 years)/(Semi final 2 years)
Albania: 9/8 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022, 2025)/(2008, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Armenia: 9/6 (2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022)/(2010, 2013, 2019, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Australia: 4/5 (2017, 2019, 2021, 2024)/(2016, 2018, 2022, 2023, 2025)
Austria: 5/8 (2012, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2022)/(2011, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Azerbaijan: 10/6 (2008, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025)/(2009, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2019, 2022)
Belgium: 12/5 (2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2025)/(2011, 2016, 2022, 2023, 2024)
Croatia: 9/6 (2011, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)/(2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017, 2019)
Cyprus: 9/7 (2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2024, 2025)/(2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2022, 2023)
Czech Republic: 6/6 (2009, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023)/(2008, 2015, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025)
Denmark: 4/12 (2012, 2013, 2015, 2022)/(2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Estonia: 9/8 (2008, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2025)/(2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)
Finland: 12/5 (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2024)/(2013, 2014, 2021, 2022, 2025)
Georgia: 4/12 (2011, 2015, 2017, 2019)/(2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Greece: 10/6 (2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022)/(2009, 2013, 2014, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025)
Iceland: 12/5 (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2024, 2025)/(2008, 2013, 2015, 2021, 2023)
Ireland: 7/10 (2008, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2021, 2023, 2024)/(2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2025)
Israel: 6/10 (2008, 2009, 2012, 2018, 2021, 2023)/(2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2022, 2024, 2025)
Latvia: 6/11 (2010, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2022, 2023)/(2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2024, 2025)
Lithuania: 6/11 (2011, 2013, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024)/(2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2023, 2025)
Luxembourg: 1/1 (2024/2025)
Malta: 6/11 (2009, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2023)/(2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2024, 2025)
Montenegro: 8/4 (2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019)/(2015, 2018, 2022, 2025)
Netherlands: 8/8 (2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2022, 2023, 2025)/(2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024)
Norway: 6/10 (2008, 2011, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025)/(2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024)
Poland: 7/8 (2008, 2010, 2011, 2017, 2019, 2024, 2025)/(2009, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023)
Portugal: 10/4 (2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)/(2008, 2012, 2015, 2021)
San Marino: 7/8 (2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2025)/(2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)
Serbia: 7/8 (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2024)/(2009, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2025)
Slovenia: 8/9 (2008, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025)/(2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2023)
Sweden: 6/8 (2009, 2014, 2017, 2021, 2023, 2025)/(2008,2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2019, 2022)
Ukraine: 6/7 (2013, 2014, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025)/(2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2018)
haha i love it, id say you have some awesome spreadsheets. thank you for taking the time to write that ❤️
@@ESCTom you’re welcome. In fact, I have a document called Eurovision statistics with different prompts. I would love to create my own Eurovision stats website to share my unique findings.
I think going forward the Q rate should be analysed through just 100% televote seeing as that's how the semi's are now. Also Denmark Q'd in 2019 due to the vote counting hiccup. so really 1/6 Q rate. Making Lithuania a 6/6 and Poland a 3/6. Never not gobsmacking that it happened.
i disagree, qualification is also about a delegation being able to strategise, and managing your act on a 50/50 system is just as relevant for how a delegation performs
Where is the uk?
They automatically qualify for the final
We just NEED Nini Iris from Georgia and there will be our 2nd qualification in a row,but because of shitty politics it might be Mariam Shengelia and it HURTS so BAD, WE NEED NINI PLEASE!!!!!!!
Correct me if I’m wrong but has San Marino 🇸🇲 not been allocated to perform in the 1st half of the 1st semi final since they began participating all the way back in 2008 ?
I don’t know about that, but there’s an almost 50-50 break between San Marino being sorted in the first and second semifinal. In fact, this is the first time since 2019 they’ve been sorted in the first semifinal.
San Marino: 7/8 (2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2025)/(2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)
LOUANE WILL REPRESENT FRANCE 🇫🇷
Brilliant commentary and analysis. You would seem to have a degree in statistics. Is this your main source of income? If not it should be. If I get an invite for EUROSONG, (which I applied for) I would love to say hi.
yea currently content creation is my main source of income
im not in ireland so wont be at eurosong unfortunately
banger of a video as always, we're really into eurovision season now 🔥 so nervous for the uk entry to be revealed but i'm v excited for adonxs to release his song a banger is pending 🔥 excited for melfest as well hoping to watch it in full this year, only watched the final last year but loved it
You didn't say who is the luckiest country to get 2nd half
Yes i did - Luxembourg
do poland after slovenia
im not doing slovenia as im not able to lift the audio from their website
Montenegro was robbed, I hope she qualifies, maybe if she opens the show
they dont usually open with ballads, hopefully she gets drawn 8th
@ESCTom she should have been in semi 1 at this point
Semi Final 1 looks the strongest I am impressed with Belgium and Portugal national selections they have great songs the countries who I think is in danger of not qualifying are Iceland Slovenia and maybe Norway I am also not very impressed with there songs maybe Lighter is the best option idk and do not count out San Marino out yet yes they don't have friends in this Semi Final but if they choose Grisana Kohoney I think they can qualify with her since there is Ukraine also in the same semi final and now onto Semi Final 2 the country who I think is in danger is Montenegro unfortunately I hope they don't get the death slot yes there is Serbia same Semi Final but I don't think it will be enough and this is a great opportunity for Malta and I hope they do the correct choice and select Kantera I can definitely see this get top 10 televote points since there is UK Armenia Ireland and even Australia because they usually always give points to Malta
1st semi final is so much more predictable
Another thing with Anna Berghandall is with the new voting system she would’ve qualified over Ireland , based on the fact your Irish I suppose your happy that didn’t happen
honestly i think swedens song was better that year
@@ESCTom I loved Sweden that year , a shame they didn’t make it
Put it here first we will lose AT LEAST Ukraine or Sweden in the semis maybe even both
thats worth betting on - you could buy a new house 😂
Wait...Greta withdrew from Supernova?!?!?
*looks for Eurovision news n it*
Dammit...get well soon...I want you to come back and win Supernova!!! Monsters was a fire song!!!