When houses became an “investment” it was only a matter of time before greedy people and companies started buying them up. I know 4 people who own multiple houses in my area and I can see why there is a “housing shortage”. That’s just 4 people i personally know here in my local area. Now imagine how many more people are doing the same thing.
I’ve seen the same. Everyone and their brother wants to own 10 houses. There simply are not enough houses for that to be possible. Currently on the west coast a house can’t be rented for the mortgage cost without a 50% down payment and investors can find a lot better return on $250k elsewhere.
Homes only became a major investment because of ridiculous FED policy. Who wants a 10 year bond paying 0.55%? That's only $5,500 per year on a million dollars. Absurd. The longterm average for the 10 year is 5.84% or over $58,000 per year on 1M. The FED broke the bond market and investors found alternatives. Cheap money has consequences yet I heard little complaints from people as the FED hammered rates down to effectively zero.
The US Banking system certainly DID NOT learn in 2008 and changed NOTHING. After 2008 the European banking system changed drastically. In the UK, the banks stripped out their toxic assets. The result was - 80% of loss making branches closed. No more cheques or money orders. Everything is done digitally or by a phone App. What happens in Europe get transported across to the US. The US banking Sector are going to experience WORSE pain than we did in 2008. You guys changed NOTHING.
Of course it is…moofs got so gloriously wealthy from crashing the economy in 08, they just had to do again, this time with the ‘rona twist. This Jam ain’t never stopping.
The problem with the housing market is that you just don't know how long its disassociation from reality can continue--look at Australia for example, the market has been totally removed from affordability for well over a decade.
The reality is that houses costs at this point are being limited by building costs in most places. I don't really see how, given the lack of housing inventory, we're going to see a serious price decline.
@@addmix Immigration is a factor, but not the central cause. The U.S. housing crisis at least is more due to zoning laws, economic inequalities and incentives, and our subsequent lack of affordable housing development, especially post 2008.
Amazing video, I noticed that most people work for 40yrs to have $1M in their retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k to $50k into trading from just few months ago and now they’re multimillionaires…
If you’re new to investing or don’t have much time, it’s best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I’ve learned this from my own experience.
Yes getting professional help is a smart move when it comes to building a strong financial portfolio that matches your long-term goals. It’s always wise to seek guidance from experts.
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can’t decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
If you want an answer to "should I buy a home right now" The answer is always, "you should buy when you can afford to buy" That's it. That is the only answer that anyone can or should give you. No one can predict the future. if you are trying to time the market, you are just gambling with your future. Sometimes you will be right, sometimes you will be wrong. And the same goes with the question "should I sell my home right now". Again, you should sell when it makes sense for you. Schiller is right to not want to answer those questions. Because even the best minds in history, have no idea what the future holds. Yes housing prices will eventually come down. Yes there will eventually be a crash. And yes there will eventually be a bubble if there isn't already one. But the real issue and the only one that matters, is that NO ONE can tell you when. If I had a crystal ball and told you with 100% certainty that housing prices are going to crash 50% in 2027, you would automatically assume that you should wait to buy until then. But what if between now and 2027, housing prices went up 300%? They would be 50% higher in 2027, than they are right now, even with a 50% crash. For the love of God, stop trying to time the market.
Yeah. I was told that in 2006🤣. Unfortunately buying a house is no longer that simple as it might have been for you when you were young….Now we know you can lose your shirt. You SHOULD time the market. It’s a heavy investment not to do your due diligence. Buying at the peak is DUMB.
Did you forget your link to "my Real estate business"? A bit of an overly simplistic view I'd say. Housing to salary ratios are more important than if it continues to go up. If you can't afford to buy your home now it's not going to get easier with maintenance, taxes and insurance going up.
Tough* to make a prediction in a fake environment. Imagine a boat, it can hold up to 10,000 gallons of water before it sinks. There's a hole leaking 500 gallons a minute into the hull, how long till it sinks? Hard to say, there's some Uncle Sam dude down there w/ a pump and he refuses to tell us the specs.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
Soon, cheap homes won't be cheap anymore because prices today will look like dips tomorrow. I think inflation will cause panic until the Fed tightens its grip even more. You can't just pull the band-aid Off half way. Booms and busts are the ups and downs of the economy, and they will affect any investments. If you are at a crossroads or need honest advice on the best steps to take right now, it is best to get counsel from a financial expert.
"Rebecca Nassar Dunne" is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
My friend lives in Los Angeles. She purchased her home in 2020, and since has spent $3.00 for a new light switch plate. That's the extent of her home improvements. Her home has increased over $600,000 in value since buying.
Or the “value” of the dollar has decreased (thanks to printing trillions more of them). Thank the Pandemic for this, largest transfer of wealth in human history.
@@RandomRabbit007yeah most of that isn’t “from printing money” that stopped over 3 years ago. This is companies saying you’re going to pay more because you’ll still believe that line of printing money and blame someone else
@@Jebbis go look at the M3 money supply on the official Fed website (you can just google it) and look at 2020 .... Now compare that to the last 60 YEARS!!!! You act like they didnt print an INSANE amount of money, we never even SPOKE about a TRILLION dollars before 2020. That number was considered RIDICULOUS. Printed 6-7 TRILLION dollars bro .... and Inflation has been astronomical and is still high today!! Sure companies are also profiting massively.
@@Jebbisthat is objectively wrong. How would a "company" determine how much someone would pay for another person's house? It takes years for newly printed money to make its way through the economy.
Been hearing about a housing crash since 2020 and even before and all those predictions were wrong. We need a depression to knock home prices back to 2019 levels.
Supply is so low that there is no way it will crash. Expecting a crash is foolish. Everyone NEEDS a home to live in and Biden/Harris allowed 30,000,000 illegals to enter America too.
I’m surprised the Florida market hasn’t already crashed with the insurance crisis as bad as it is. But selling a house isn’t as easy and quick as selling stock. People hold onto inventory if they can’t get their price.
Nothing changed in terms of speculation from 2008. They just rebranded it. Imo, there is even more speculation this time. Especially with companies like Airbnb obfuscating the market and making money in arbitrage.
Good point about Airbnb. I'm a teacher also with an MA from Yale, but I've chosen a life and career abroad as a freelance language teacher which in a nutshell pays little annually. So I'll never be able to buy into any housing market regardless of the conditions at that time. However, Airbnb and other apps have made even renting basic decent accomodation inland here in Spain or elsewhere very difficult, forgetting about the coasts. Homeowners in tourist towns across Spain are raking in the dough.
@@jayclarke6671 it's like that all over Europe. Am from the Balkans, Croatia and many coastal countries have seen significant rise in prices where locals can't afford these prices.
@@AlenAbdula yes homeowners are renting places weekly even daily where they can bring in 2000+ a month for normal places at the beach, even up to 5-10K a month for luxurious homes. That's a lot of dough.
Bingo. Most financial youtubers got their start at or around the start of the pandemic, when every noob convinced themselves they're now an investing genius. They're about to learn a VERY hard lesson. This will be 45% worse than 2008 because simply ALL the math is 45% worse than the 2007 peak bubble.
according to zillow, our house near raleigh, nc increased in "value" by 70% between jan '21 and jun '22 when nothing changed except the value of the dollar. yeah our networth looks healthier but our kids won't be able to afford anything worthwhile for a long time unless there's reversion to the mean/trend. gov't induced devaluation of currency should be criminal.
Interest rates need to rise. Purchasing power restored to purchasers, instead of stripped away by capitalist lending class who will see their assets rise in value with reduced rates. Rates must rise and September will see them cut here in the US. Awful times are enroute.
In 1966 my father bought his first home for $15,500. He earned $7,500 a year as an autobody repairman. Last year the house across the street which is smaller and on a narrow lot sold for $989,000.
The crash he predicted was caused by subprime mortgages given to people who should never have gotten a loan . Today that’s rare and nothing he says has any relevance to today’s market . Today it’s overinflated house prices with high interest rates in an inflated economy .Credit card debt is over a trillion dollars and it’s an election year so the economy is being propped up when it’s really in shambles ..There will be a sizable downturn after the election continuing till mid next year but we won’t see another crash like it happened before
There will be a dramatic shift in America but lower prices won’t be dramatic. There are billion and trillion $ corporations ready to buy up real estate. They will never let us little people get better.
I don't even think we'll have a sizable downtown. I doubt it'll be more than 1-2% for maybe 2-3 more years. The supply side is simply too tight. Building is ridiculously expensive, and there is so much money floating around out there. Plus with airbnb, there's a whole additional source of housing demand. If tech employment picks up (which it probably will within 2 years), we will be right on back to growth.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 It’s already happening in states like Florida and Texas ..The housing markets are way overvalued . Unemployment is rising and despite lower interest rates people are still not buying . There is record number of people backing out of contracts . I don’t believe it will be another crash like the big one of 08 because the next one coming won’t be caused by subprime loans , it will be cause by increasing personal debt and unemployment as companies downsize and layoff people . And the biggest elephant in the room is AI that’s going to put many people out of work and nobody is even looking at that .
I would like Schilllers opinion regarding the effect of AirBnB and Institutional buyers on this housing market. The dynamics r now different than they were in 2008 as these two factors entered the market n took up the slack in inventory
Schiller opinions are always based on long term deviations from mean. He doesn’t have anything relevant to new tech or trends. He has/had an indicator for equities that has been comicly wrong for the four decades I have been investing because it completely neglects intelectual property. AirB&B can be implicated and convicted of contributing to housing shortages in the nearly all the least affordable markets. Just count the local ST listings and compare to the local shortage. "Institutional buyers” are no intrinsic problem as long as they don’t remove housing or reach local monopoly size. There is a new monopoly problem that doesn’t require the risk of concentrated ownership -“Rent Optimization” software services. With AI tracking of everything people do online they can get the maximum rent. Politicians like to blame “Wall Street” because they are big and unpopular.
@@skyak4493 You bring up a point that is seldom mentioned when people look back on recessions. We have lighting fast communication. Chances are that news will spread quickly, a crash could take place and people can rebound faster than ever once good news starts to circulate. Keep in mind...the world's most expensive cities are outside of the United states...so buying in the US is still a deal for foreigners parking money. Can I say foreigners or is there some fancier word that I'm supposed to use these days? Peoples who don't live here full time.
@@Dancing_Alone_wRentals The way I see it, home prices are not over replacement cost. The vast majority of the problem is near urban centers, and new “affordable” homes are not profitable to build. This only a “crisis” in political terms (in the US), and it is urban. The first and obvious thing to do is to tax/regulate things that raise price and take homes out of use -short term rentals, and any property held for investment or even not a primary residence. Tax/regulate these and use all proceeds to build only affordable housing in mass transit corridors.
@@skyak4493 I believe rentals are taxed at a higher rate everywhere. To me that would mean the taxes could be raised some but would it be worth it? The outcry of tenant groups would be harsh on politicians. All fees, taxes, and fines are paid by the tenants....add to this loan service and we would be hurting tenants again. The residential rental business is pretty hands on tough, I'm surprised that big investors are buying up rentals. When I research the numbers it turns out they really don't have many vs the mom & pops. I wish tenants were better educated, I think their voting with their feet would help. Interesting stuff. tHanks for your comments.
@@skyak4493 I do agree with some of your proposals, but how about building more housing? NIMBY-ism and overly strict zoning laws contribute greatly to the housing shortage especially in the coastal areas of the NE and West Coasts.
Keep in mind that Irrational Exuberance was published several years ahead of the housing crash. All of his factors got much more out of whack before the crash. In reference to the stock market it has been said that the markets can remain irrational much longer than most people can remain solvent. Same applies to all markets.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed that of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data going back to 2014. Those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.
Don't forget that Trudeau has been importing millions of immigrants and gives them all welfare and housing assistance! All the affordable housing is being used to house new Trudeau voters.
Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable , but others say it's risky. Any advice?
Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Just remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.
You're right! With the help of an experienced coach, I made some changes in my investments. I started with $321k, and now I have more than $750k by investing in stocks, ETFs, and bonds. I think housing prices won't go down much until there are more houses available.
You're right! With the help of an experienced coach, I made some changes in my investments. I started with $321k, and now I have more than $750k by investing in stocks, ETFs, and bonds. I think housing prices won't go down much until there are more houses available.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
It's quite concerning to see the various challenges our economy is facing right now, from uncertainties to housing issues, bad weather conditions, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, all contributing to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions definitely require immediate attention from all sectors to bring back stability and promote growth. How do you think these issues can be effectively addressed?
It's a bit unsettling to see the US dollar losing value due to inflation while other currencies are gaining momentum, creating a sense of uncertainty. Despite this, there's still a level of trust in the perceived safety of the dollar. I understand your concern about your $420,000 retirement savings potentially losing value. Exploring alternative options for securing your money sounds like a wise move. Have you considered any specific alternatives or strategies to safeguard your retirement savings?
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I'm grateful for your help. After looking up her name online and checking out her credentials, I must say, I'm really impressed. I reached out to her because I could really use all the help I can get. We've set up a call for further discussion.
I think everyone has heard about Case-Schiller and their economic mastery. But I never heard Schiller talk, and he rambles on and on just like Buffet. For a Yale Prof Schiller cannot get his ideas and message across very well. Obviously he is on some spectrum, but a lecturer or educator he is most definitely NOT. But he has created a nice graph.
Now is a bad time to buy? I sold 8 years ago waiting for the prices to go down, they didn't but interest rates did, I jumped back in 3 1/2 years ago with a 2.9% and my house has now doubled in value. I am glad I stopped listening to all the naysayers telling me to wait, wait, wait. They want to price everyone out so their 2030 agenda of "You will own nothing and be happy" will come true. Even if you have to purchase a smaller house in another area/region do yourself a favor and purchase something and make sure it is affordable for your budget.
I'm impressed with the professor taking into consideration the fact that people need homes for themselves and families. However, at the end of the day, the value of homes is determined by what they can be sold for, and NOTHING else. All we hear is that "no one can afford a home anymore". Obviously they can afford it, or prices would drop.
GDP's already negative, the housing market's already crashing (see all-time high number of price reductions without any sales still), all-time consumer credit card debt, unemployment is skyrocketing and will surpass 2009's 10% peak. Homes and stocks will crash 60%. It's literally 3rd grade math. It was always inevitable. Already seeing it in every single asset class other than the Crypto market ....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
Yep, it always makes me laugh when people say 2007 was different because of ARMs and subprime loans. Those 2 things added artificial demand which created unaffordable homes, otherwise known as a bubble. The market crashed due to sheerly unaffordable homes relative to the median income. Those loans weren't HALF as bad as the 10 million loans from 2021-2023 where people with good credit financed a $350,000 home with 2% down while taking home only $65,000. What people don't see is that half of those people are going to lose their income entirely over the next year or 2, causing a race to low prices that make 2008 look like a warmup. Largest bubble in world history according to literally all the math. What should really scare people is that in 2007-2008, NONE of our other bills like insurance, groceries and utilities went up 50% simultaneously like they did this time, compounding the bubble and overall debt to income issue we see right now.
@@enthused7591 half of people will lose their income entirely? That seems like a bit of a stretch. But your point about all the other household bills going up at the same time is on point.
Except for inflation which is an unavoidable mathematical phenomenon. Just because that has worked for a while doesn't mean that will work forever. Eventually all that printing catches up to the economy.
@@derek4412 You have to read bud. I said there are 10 million bad loans from 2021-2023 and half of THOSE people will lose everything they own, making it a worse foreclosure crisis and crash than 2008, and it will be. It's purely math, and not a single piece of math points to the contrary.
People are using Thier homes to pay the bills by taking the equity out. Once the credit shifts and can no longer be obtained this stops. 17trillion in debt in the residential housing market alone , a moratorium on refinancing in the commercial realestate sector have them until March of 2025 to get Thier 💩 together unless they choose to extend it forever March is it .
A Yale professor might consider metro-Miami typical of the South but few who live in the South think that's true. Miami and Southern Florida in general are filled with retires from the NE. That inflates a housing market.
We're not witnessing an increase in price, and haven't been for a year. We ARE witnessing .01% of homes valued at above $600,000 still selling in indescribably small numbers. Why does that push numbers up on paper? Because the other 99.99% of homes under $600,000 have had multiple 10%+ price reductions and STILL aren't selling. You have to have a transaction for those homes to affect the median home price SOLD, and plain and simply, we're witnessing the lowest demand for homes in literally all of world history at these prices. In reality, the US housing market is down 20% year over year total in terms of price and in complete freefall until we find out what people are willing to pay for typical homes again. It'll likely be a year from now at 40+% down from 2023 prices and continue to fall, as we watch unemployment rocket past 15%. Can't ignore math, and ALL the math is worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude. Literally 45% worse than 2007 peak bubble.
Consumers must consume less as more of their resources must go towards covering the mortgage. What happens to a consumer driven economy when less consumption is taking place? When flagrant shoplifting becomes the norm?
I bought a home in August 2007 in an Iowa exurb. $116k, taxed at $112k. Now taxed at $158k and judging by recent sales on this street could be sold between $180k and $205k.Yes, I've done some improvements and kept up with maintenance, but even with inflation I did not expect this. This home is 780 square feet, four rooms with a full basement, brick construction on a half acre.
Depending on your location, that high valuation for such a small home could be driven by the half-acre of land. The buyer (or developer) would be someone wanting to demolish it and build something larger. I saw that in my NE Seattle neighborhood in the 1980s. Because of the location, little homes built long before were selling at high prices. They were demolished and replaced with multi-story ones that barely fit onto the lot.
@@Inkling777 There's undeveloped land still in town. This house is 1/4 mile from the school yard, 1/2 mile from a nationally recognized bike path. New construction is going for over 300k Price is driven by 1) it's vicinity and distance (25-351, about half of that agricultural land) miles to a midwest metro that is thriving and did pretty well during and after the covid shutdowns 2) The school system is consistently in the top ten in the state 3) crime is low, church attendance is high. There's even a boy scout troop in town still. Nice little town. In 4 years or so since retiring I've walked nearly 3,700 miles in town and not been molested or abused.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
‘’Marisa Breton Dollard’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
The problem with Schiller's predictions is that he predicts crashes years if not decades before they happen. It brings to mind the old expression, "even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
People do not need a 5,000 square foot house, we did it to ourself. Lets go back to houses that are 1500 square feet, we dont need 4 bathrooms, a living room and a den, a library and a study, 3 car garage, and that so necessary 20 by 30 bedroom. Look for a home that meets your needs not your wants. I live in a 1300 sq ft home. When I visit my friends homes I come home with a sense of saddness. At that moment I want a big shiny palace. But on the other hand,we have money, no debt of any kind. We retired at 52 and we have never looked back.
With the advent of QE, all past indicators, i.e. bond yield inversion, etc. are now meaningless. $9 trillion of QE went to the mega rich and they are buying. Prices are now the new normal. When interest rates go down, there will too many buyers for the supply. High homes prices won't collapse.
look at the areas with the huge price increases. They are not California. These huge increases in home prices are in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and other states. I live in California and our home prices have been stagnant for over 2 or 3 years. It is the southern states where many have moved since 2008. The huge crash will be in other places outside California.
BINGO …. The new “hype” places will either need to create high-paying jobs (a very difficult thing to do) or else there will need to be a major correction. California will be fine because we already have high paying jobs and we didnt over-build (actually we’re still massively under-built if anything). California prices are CHEAP right now believe it or not lol. Other states have had 15-20% gains the past 2 years while we have stayed basically flat but starting to grow now too. Watch what happens to SF prices in the coming years. Gonna be insane. ALWAYS look for the discount deals, NEVER the hype places.
@@TrevForPresidentCalifornia okly lost population between 2020-2022. By the end of 2023 the population is back to GAINING again lol. In total something like 600,000 people left (NET) …. That’s nothing when we have 40,000,000 and could INSTANTLY add more by lowering regulation on home-building (which we dont want). We wanna keep our state less dense and difficult to move to.
@@jeffrobodine8579 I know some people that were low income/low education that went to Texas, I dont know anyone wealthy that left. I know VERY FEW people young that left, lots of older/elderly people left for an easier retirement. Young people wanting to make it BIG in their career are staying in Cali.
The 3 points given by Shiller, I believe they are mis-ordered. The root cause of rapidly increasing prices and increased price to income ration is speculative buying. The demand caused by speculative buyers only causes more speculative buyers, which causes the prices to skyrocket, thereby increasing the price to income ratio to unattainable levels.
How do you get an accurate measure of flipping subtracted from normal home sales? And how do you subtract the effect of Airbnb and institutional investing from individuals and carve of the pie so you see the differences of the effects attribution?
A housing depression? Nobody in the video ever mentions this or explains how we'll get to a "housing depression." You can't get the type of conditions in the housing market talked about in this video with the current state of ultra-low employment. We're also heading to a decrease in interest rates for the remainder of the year and all next year. At most what we'll see is a plateau in housing prices.
It only looks like a price increase, because the value of the dollar has dropped so much. Imagine if the dollar was worth, one cent. How many would you need to buy a home today.
I built a concrete structure (shed with stucco walls and concrete floor) for under $5k. Why can’t I just build my own house? Why can’t I just have some land? Foreigners have more promising bank accounts
@@mikethefenceguy You can! Go to any of the many countries that don’t have or enforce building code. Your problem is that you expect to get for free what others paid and continue to pay dearly for.
His analysis predates, institutional investment on individual houses so the price the income ratio Misses the Mark definitely need a broader framework to do justice You have to first and address the assumptions at time of original publications and figure out if anyone revisited incorrect assumptions in the present date
Where I am, during 2008, housing prices continued to rise. The line just went from 10 prospective cash offers to about 6 or 7. It's really about how many people want to live in the same place. From a regional perspective, recessions have no effect when demand is combined with incomes that can afford the downturn and occupations that don't really experience layoffs.
That was a lot of words to say nothing. Quick Recap: Housing prices will continue to rise as there is a scarcity of inventory in preferred locations. Housing prices will peak when reach or exceed 45% of gross income. That's time to sell high and chase the empty houses vacated by those moving on up by buying a house like yours. The housing market has figured out how to maintain unaffordable high prices and speculator company excess profits. In short, like so many industries they have consolidated the players with mergers and takeovers to the point they don't compete on price anymore. A flooded market of excess inventory will not drive down housing prices because maintaining high prices offsets much of the cost of holding unsold homes. "W" showed the impact of interest rates. Even at rates less than 1%, people were not buying because there was no excess wealth to move up in the World. This was due in large part to the dimwitted Republican Economic Policy. That is, the more wealth you squirrel away in the top 5%, the less wealth for the 95% to drive the economy. This is why Republican Administrations always end in recession, and Democratic Administrations always rebuild to a growth economy.
I dont care if the value of my property crashes, cause it would mean the property tax would decrease and that would make me super happy. Since we own outright and dont plan on leaving it would only save us more money. Its a win win scenario for me. 😂 in fact we would welcome the value of our property dropping. Owning our own home has saved us 50,000 in two years 74000 in three years.
Nothing since 2008 has changed and that's the way the industry likes it. They always win regardless of how many people lose because they've got hedged bets on basically every conceivable scenario. Everyday people? Not so much... Just because Miami is the NEW New York doesn't mean everyone should rush to buy in now.. I have a feeling this fall will see another real estate/economic shake down that will really hit the region like the video says... How could it not? I mean the pace on the treadmill is unsustainable now much less before you factor in the wall of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next quarter or two...
Hahahaha...the only thing crashing is condo's within 3 miles of the coast over 3 stories high and 30 years old...my little 1900 sq ft ranch is up 300% in 4 years...a 2% or even 30% drop ( that would be worse than the great depression BTW) still pursuing me up...and prices are still rising
Florida's collapse is driven entirely by the new laws that require retrofitting of large condos. But that's because those homes are now being forced to price in risk that has always been there. Homes that don't have those issues aren't really declining in any meaningful way.
Define High Interest rates? The rates before you are higher than they have been in past years, however....back in....1980...Were they not 18%? ....somewhere in the 1990s they were at 9%..... I imagine people are still buying because they look back at the last 50 years then make their decisions.
A lot of TH-camrs are sales personals. The information they provided a lot of time have business sponsor behind it. Do you research before believing in any information on TH-cam.
I'm a boomer and I don't know many people planning to move south for retirement. I personally moved to DE and got a good price on a home in a beautiful neighborhood. I am reasonably close to the beaches and still enjoy 4 seasons. But when I ask about why people aren't moving south, the crazy, racist politics of the south always pops up. Can't really blame them.
Bottom line: will I be able to buy that $950,000.00 house in myrtle beach for $575,000.00 when the housing crashes? I am not that lucky. Prices will only go up from here.
I just terminated my listing this morning. Troy, Ohio. Was on the market for 60 days with not one serious offer. Cut the price $45k over that time down to $165k. Nobody wants affordable renovated homes. Listed for rent instead. Before everyone comes in here and mogs me, listen, I renovated this house myself. I put $80k into it AND 22 MONTHS OF MY LIFE. I did all the work myself. I did not do this for free. I'm not giving this property away. You don't want affordable housing. You don't want to make the necessary compromises required to have an affordable life. You just don't. If you did, my house would have sold in a day.
If it’s a general upgrade such as a remodeled kitchen, bathroom, etc it should help. Certain upgrades such as a pool will sell for more in certain neighborhoods while in others it won’t. You usually won’t get all of your money back on work done by remodeling a property. Like the previous comment stated I think most people are tapped out and we may already be at a peak in the housing market. Rates already have been adjusted for the upcoming rate cut and as of today the chances for two cuts decreased to 25 percent. We are heading into the slower time of the year for home sales, best of luck to you.
So what, the message is clear. What makes you think the timeline is important. The message is important. It does illustrate the guy is ahead of his time and peers. Try to analyse information better instead of your diatribe.
Everywhere I turn, in Central West Florida, huge subdivisions of expensive, single family homes are being constructed. I think this is a future glut being created. Many may be left vacant of not completed, I think. Nobody knows when it all breaks. If Trump gets back in, thats when the truth will drag everything down to reality. Until then, stimulation may keep it going. My 2 cent best guess, now costs a nickel due to inflation.
Are home and stock prices really that high? Everything should cost 50-100% more, they printed 50-100% more money than was in existence in last 4 years,
I heard nothing in this video that's particularly surprising but disagree with this video that we are the leader to a national recession and in particular a housing bubble popping. Unmentioned in this video is that FL is a special problem because in the past year alone new construction went absolutely crazy and built so many homes at once that it's total housing inventory increased 30%. That's absolutely nuts, and combined that with the inability to insure homes and of course you're going to see massive numbers of unsold and vacant homes and a crash. Another factor are all the poorly managed red states below your "poverty" line. Lousy economics and lousy job prospects mean lousy home sales Compare all that to California for example. Particularly in the high tech communities of Silicon Valley, Orange and LA counties and San Diego, I don't think you'll find anyone predicting even a pause in skyrocketing housing prices As always, there's more to the situation than just numbers. When you look more closely at the state and local governments and their history of Conservative NIMBYism vs Progressive support for business activity, you'll start to fin reasons for the economic divide.
@Tonysul You are mistaken in that Texas' job prospects and economy have been outgrowing California. The exception is CaliAustin. It's had crazy home prices since the 1990's.
Seems that many companies that you rely on for CA's job stability are running for the exit door. SpaceX, X, Tesla to name a few.... investment firms in SFO.... drop in tourism due to crime.... movie production is off.... Disney tourism is down.... If you also look objectively, the number of homes on the market in the areas that you called out have increased and the sales are stagnant for many, with only the best of the best being sold. There are some good deals in Palos Verdes Estates.....
You should be looking at how the Fed's MBS to Treasury Ratio - Fed Balance sheet is around 7.1 trillion now - I expect Fed would like to reduce it to around 6.85-6.9 trillion by end of 2024. There is no case for a meaningful comparison between 2008 subprime lending crisis and today, given rising wages, interest rates, inflation, and inventory. Home ownership demographics are changing especially among Latinos and minorities, and given wage increases prices are actually on the lower side. No homeowner will be distress selling in this market, since they will struggle to buy another home given the market and lack of (quality) inventory.
When houses became an “investment” it was only a matter of time before greedy people and companies started buying them up. I know 4 people who own multiple houses in my area and I can see why there is a “housing shortage”. That’s just 4 people i personally know here in my local area. Now imagine how many more people are doing the same thing.
Thats the thing people forget too. Yes it easy to blame big coprs like blackrock, but its still bad if half the houses are owned by provate landlords.
I’ve seen the same. Everyone and their brother wants to own 10 houses. There simply are not enough houses for that to be possible. Currently on the west coast a house can’t be rented for the mortgage cost without a 50% down payment and investors can find a lot better return on $250k elsewhere.
Homes only became a major investment because of ridiculous FED policy. Who wants a 10 year bond paying 0.55%? That's only $5,500 per year on a million dollars. Absurd. The longterm average for the 10 year is 5.84% or over $58,000 per year on 1M. The FED broke the bond market and investors found alternatives. Cheap money has consequences yet I heard little complaints from people as the FED hammered rates down to effectively zero.
Things people need will always become an investment, except for consumables.
Lenders in private hoas are not part of the “unavailable”. Market. The data is skewed. To keep prices high. A game
Because all the major players were BAILED OUT in 2008...
No lesson was learned. It's worse now. 👈
💯
This! 💯
The US Banking system certainly DID NOT learn in 2008 and changed NOTHING.
After 2008 the European banking system changed drastically. In the UK, the banks stripped out their toxic assets.
The result was - 80% of loss making branches closed. No more cheques or money orders. Everything is done digitally or by a phone App.
What happens in Europe get transported across to the US.
The US banking Sector are going to experience WORSE pain than we did in 2008. You guys changed NOTHING.
Inflation
Of course it is…moofs got so gloriously wealthy from crashing the economy in 08, they just had to do again, this time with the ‘rona twist.
This Jam ain’t never stopping.
He lost me at "Janet Yellen I admire"
I think he had been drinking….
Yellen is the drunken grandmother who always has bad news
Saved me 10 mins ty
Your personal bias is your loss.
@@IrvineTruth Nothing personal just look at her policies and what she says.
The problem with the housing market is that you just don't know how long its disassociation from reality can continue--look at Australia for example, the market has been totally removed from affordability for well over a decade.
Inflation
Bankers cause this to happen. Are they using their own capital or leveraging the daylights out of someone else’s money to nefarious effect?
The reality is that houses costs at this point are being limited by building costs in most places. I don't really see how, given the lack of housing inventory, we're going to see a serious price decline.
It's odd, I've only ever seen housing crisis in countries that have mass-immigration policies.
@@addmix Immigration is a factor, but not the central cause. The U.S. housing crisis at least is more due to zoning laws, economic inequalities and incentives, and our subsequent lack of affordable housing development, especially post 2008.
Amazing video, I noticed that most people work for 40yrs to have $1M in their retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k to $50k into trading from just few months ago and now they’re multimillionaires…
Investing can be complex, so it’s smart to get professional guidance when building your financial portfolio.
If you’re new to investing or don’t have much time, it’s best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I’ve learned this from my own experience.
Yes getting professional help is a smart move when it comes to building a strong financial portfolio that matches your long-term goals.
It’s always wise to seek guidance from experts.
Waking up every 10th of each month to $64,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Jaspreet Singh🙌
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can’t decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
If you want an answer to "should I buy a home right now" The answer is always, "you should buy when you can afford to buy" That's it. That is the only answer that anyone can or should give you. No one can predict the future. if you are trying to time the market, you are just gambling with your future. Sometimes you will be right, sometimes you will be wrong. And the same goes with the question "should I sell my home right now". Again, you should sell when it makes sense for you. Schiller is right to not want to answer those questions. Because even the best minds in history, have no idea what the future holds. Yes housing prices will eventually come down. Yes there will eventually be a crash. And yes there will eventually be a bubble if there isn't already one. But the real issue and the only one that matters, is that NO ONE can tell you when. If I had a crystal ball and told you with 100% certainty that housing prices are going to crash 50% in 2027, you would automatically assume that you should wait to buy until then. But what if between now and 2027, housing prices went up 300%? They would be 50% higher in 2027, than they are right now, even with a 50% crash. For the love of God, stop trying to time the market.
Yeah. I was told that in 2006🤣. Unfortunately buying a house is no longer that simple as it might have been for you when you were young….Now we know you can lose your shirt. You SHOULD time the market. It’s a heavy investment not to do your due diligence. Buying at the peak is DUMB.
Eggactly! (However that logic makes for horribly short and few
YT videos….)
Did you forget your link to "my Real estate business"? A bit of an overly simplistic view I'd say. Housing to salary ratios are more important than if it continues to go up.
If you can't afford to buy your home now it's not going to get easier with maintenance, taxes and insurance going up.
@@resnonverba3351 - buying has always been about 3 things. FICO, savings and employment.....
Which part are you missing?
This is a bot comment. I've seen this exact comment on a dozen other videos.
Tough* to make a prediction in a fake environment.
Imagine a boat, it can hold up to 10,000 gallons of water before it sinks. There's a hole leaking 500 gallons a minute into the hull, how long till it sinks? Hard to say, there's some Uncle Sam dude down there w/ a pump and he refuses to tell us the specs.
You forgot the shark and the battery!
20 minutes
No. More like 35 minutes. As the boat fills with water, the pressure difference is less and water ingress slows down.
A pump? I think he's down there with a drill trying to drill holes in the hull. To drain the water out.
😹😹😹Love the analogy!!! 😹💙🫶🏻✌🏻
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
Soon, cheap homes won't be cheap anymore because prices today will look like dips tomorrow. I think inflation will cause panic until the Fed tightens its grip even more. You can't just pull the band-aid Off half way. Booms and busts are the ups and downs of the economy, and they will affect any investments. If you are at a crossroads or need honest advice on the best steps to take right now, it is best to get counsel from a financial expert.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
"Rebecca Nassar Dunne" is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
My friend lives in Los Angeles. She purchased her home in 2020, and since has spent $3.00 for a new light switch plate. That's the extent of her home improvements. Her home has increased over $600,000 in value since buying.
Or the “value” of the dollar has decreased (thanks to printing trillions more of them). Thank the Pandemic for this, largest transfer of wealth in human history.
Her house is only worth what she gets when she sells it.
@@RandomRabbit007yeah most of that isn’t “from printing money” that stopped over 3 years ago. This is companies saying you’re going to pay more because you’ll still believe that line of printing money and blame someone else
@@Jebbis go look at the M3 money supply on the official Fed website (you can just google it) and look at 2020 .... Now compare that to the last 60 YEARS!!!! You act like they didnt print an INSANE amount of money, we never even SPOKE about a TRILLION dollars before 2020. That number was considered RIDICULOUS. Printed 6-7 TRILLION dollars bro .... and Inflation has been astronomical and is still high today!! Sure companies are also profiting massively.
@@Jebbisthat is objectively wrong. How would a "company" determine how much someone would pay for another person's house? It takes years for newly printed money to make its way through the economy.
Been hearing about a housing crash since 2020 and even before and all those predictions were wrong. We need a depression to knock home prices back to 2019 levels.
Great point...
....second only to the preppers who have been promising mass chaos for over thirty years and nothing.
Supply is so low that there is no way it will crash. Expecting a crash is foolish. Everyone NEEDS a home to live in and Biden/Harris allowed 30,000,000 illegals to enter America too.
@@RandomRabbit007wonderful. What strong leaders
National debt is five times what it was in 2008. When do the GSEs get audited? Never.
@@RandomRabbit007BS
GM lays off over 1,000 salaried software, services employees today…
good
In the long run, it's better to be one of the first. They've got a few hundred thousand to go until the inevitable bankruptcy runs its course.
Hopefully the new dev team can make an infotainment system that doesn't crash.
cisco computer systems also... john deere...
depression 2008 v2, just peaked... the data doesnt lie
I’m surprised the Florida market hasn’t already crashed with the insurance crisis as bad as it is. But selling a house isn’t as easy and quick as selling stock. People hold onto inventory if they can’t get their price.
Because he said "there are smart people at the FED & he admires Janet Yellin" nothing he says is worth listening tk!
Aaaand you KNOW better than a Yale Professor? RLY?? You should apply for the next position at Yale
@bricktop7803 As Thurston H. III recognized in disdain: "obviously, a Yale man "
@@bricktop7803Was inflation transitory? 🤣🤣🤣
Nothing changed in terms of speculation from 2008. They just rebranded it. Imo, there is even more speculation this time. Especially with companies like Airbnb obfuscating the market and making money in arbitrage.
yup
Good point about Airbnb. I'm a teacher also with an MA from Yale, but I've chosen a life and career abroad as a freelance language teacher which in a nutshell pays little annually. So I'll never be able to buy into any housing market regardless of the conditions at that time. However, Airbnb and other apps have made even renting basic decent accomodation inland here in Spain or elsewhere very difficult, forgetting about the coasts.
Homeowners in tourist towns across Spain are raking in the dough.
@@jayclarke6671 it's like that all over Europe. Am from the Balkans, Croatia and many coastal countries have seen significant rise in prices where locals can't afford these prices.
@@AlenAbdula yes homeowners are renting places weekly even daily where they can bring in 2000+ a month for normal places at the beach, even up to 5-10K a month for luxurious homes. That's a lot of dough.
Bingo. Most financial youtubers got their start at or around the start of the pandemic, when every noob convinced themselves they're now an investing genius. They're about to learn a VERY hard lesson. This will be 45% worse than 2008 because simply ALL the math is 45% worse than the 2007 peak bubble.
Arizona inventory is up 55% over last year.
But how are prices
@@Distress.still greedy af
They’re still over valued but dropping. I’m a realtor, we have clients that bought in 2022 taking a loss to sell their properties
Not in Phoenix, unless you mean apartments.
@@shamrock5725 lol. You need to look at the data. Inventory is up 55% according to the arizona realtors (MLS). Investigate and see for yourself.
The problem with predictions its hard to predict anything when the numbers are fake.
according to zillow, our house near raleigh, nc increased in "value" by 70% between jan '21 and jun '22 when nothing changed except the value of the dollar. yeah our networth looks healthier but our kids won't be able to afford anything worthwhile for a long time unless there's reversion to the mean/trend. gov't induced devaluation of currency should be criminal.
Interest rates need to rise. Purchasing power restored to purchasers, instead of stripped away by capitalist lending class who will see their assets rise in value with reduced rates. Rates must rise and September will see them cut here in the US. Awful times are enroute.
In 1966 my father bought his first home for $15,500. He earned $7,500 a year as an autobody repairman. Last year the house across the street which is smaller and on a narrow lot sold for $989,000.
Home is a place to live not a stock. Forced divestment is required
💯
The crash he predicted was caused by subprime mortgages given to people who should never have gotten a loan . Today that’s rare and nothing he says has any relevance to today’s market . Today it’s overinflated house prices with high interest rates in an inflated economy .Credit card debt is over a trillion dollars and it’s an election year so the economy is being propped up when it’s really in shambles ..There will be a sizable downturn after the election continuing till mid next year but we won’t see another crash like it happened before
There will be a dramatic shift in America but lower prices won’t be dramatic. There are billion and trillion $ corporations ready to buy up real estate. They will never let us little people get better.
I don't even think we'll have a sizable downtown. I doubt it'll be more than 1-2% for maybe 2-3 more years. The supply side is simply too tight. Building is ridiculously expensive, and there is so much money floating around out there. Plus with airbnb, there's a whole additional source of housing demand. If tech employment picks up (which it probably will within 2 years), we will be right on back to growth.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 It’s already happening in states like Florida and Texas ..The housing markets are way overvalued . Unemployment is rising and despite lower interest rates people are still not buying . There is record number of people backing out of contracts . I don’t believe it will be another crash like the big one of 08 because the next one coming won’t be caused by subprime loans , it will be cause by increasing personal debt and unemployment as companies downsize and layoff people . And the biggest elephant in the room is AI that’s going to put many people out of work and nobody is even looking at that .
I would like Schilllers opinion regarding the effect of AirBnB and Institutional buyers on this housing market. The dynamics r now different than they were in 2008 as these two factors entered the market n took up the slack in inventory
Schiller opinions are always based on long term deviations from mean. He doesn’t have anything relevant to new tech or trends. He has/had an indicator for equities that has been comicly wrong for the four decades I have been investing because it completely neglects intelectual property.
AirB&B can be implicated and convicted of contributing to housing shortages in the nearly all the least affordable markets. Just count the local ST listings and compare to the local shortage. "Institutional buyers” are no intrinsic problem as long as they don’t remove housing or reach local monopoly size. There is a new monopoly problem that doesn’t require the risk of concentrated ownership -“Rent Optimization” software services. With AI tracking of everything people do online they can get the maximum rent. Politicians like to blame “Wall Street” because they are big and unpopular.
@@skyak4493 You bring up a point that is seldom mentioned when people look back on recessions. We have lighting fast communication. Chances are that news will spread quickly, a crash could take place and people can rebound faster than ever once good news starts to circulate.
Keep in mind...the world's most expensive cities are outside of the United states...so buying in the US is still a deal for foreigners parking money.
Can I say foreigners or is there some fancier word that I'm supposed to use these days? Peoples who don't live here full time.
@@Dancing_Alone_wRentals The way I see it, home prices are not over replacement cost. The vast majority of the problem is near urban centers, and new “affordable” homes are not profitable to build.
This only a “crisis” in political terms (in the US), and it is urban. The first and obvious thing to do is to tax/regulate things that raise price and take homes out of use -short term rentals, and any property held for investment or even not a primary residence. Tax/regulate these and use all proceeds to build only affordable housing in mass transit corridors.
@@skyak4493 I believe rentals are taxed at a higher rate everywhere. To me that would mean the taxes could be raised some but would it be worth it? The outcry of tenant groups would be harsh on politicians.
All fees, taxes, and fines are paid by the tenants....add to this loan service and we would be hurting tenants again.
The residential rental business is pretty hands on tough, I'm surprised that big investors are buying up rentals. When I research the numbers it turns out they really don't have many vs the mom & pops.
I wish tenants were better educated, I think their voting with their feet would help.
Interesting stuff. tHanks for your comments.
@@skyak4493 I do agree with some of your proposals, but how about building more housing? NIMBY-ism and overly strict zoning laws contribute greatly to the housing shortage especially in the coastal areas of the NE and West Coasts.
Keep in mind that Irrational Exuberance was published several years ahead of the housing crash. All of his factors got much more out of whack before the crash. In reference to the stock market it has been said that the markets can remain irrational much longer than most people can remain solvent. Same applies to all markets.
He lost all credence with me when he said he admired Janet Yellen.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed that of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data going back to 2014.
Those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.
Inject trillions into the economy...buckle up.
House hoarding in Canada is a major problem. Canadian prices are about 50% higher than USA for similar properties.
Don't forget that Trudeau has been importing millions of immigrants and gives them all welfare and housing assistance! All the affordable housing is being used to house new Trudeau voters.
Have you considered insurance availability in your assessment.
Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable , but others say it's risky. Any advice?
Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Just remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.
You're right! With the help of an experienced coach, I made some changes in my investments. I started with $321k, and now I have more than $750k by investing in stocks, ETFs, and bonds. I think housing prices won't go down much until there are more houses available.
You're right! With the help of an experienced coach, I made some changes in my investments. I started with $321k, and now I have more than $750k by investing in stocks, ETFs, and bonds. I think housing prices won't go down much until there are more houses available.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
It's quite concerning to see the various challenges our economy is facing right now, from uncertainties to housing issues, bad weather conditions, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, all contributing to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions definitely require immediate attention from all sectors to bring back stability and promote growth. How do you think these issues can be effectively addressed?
It's a bit unsettling to see the US dollar losing value due to inflation while other currencies are gaining momentum, creating a sense of uncertainty. Despite this, there's still a level of trust in the perceived safety of the dollar. I understand your concern about your $420,000 retirement savings potentially losing value. Exploring alternative options for securing your money sounds like a wise move. Have you considered any specific alternatives or strategies to safeguard your retirement savings?
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Just research the name Jessica Lee Horst. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I'm grateful for your help. After looking up her name online and checking out her credentials, I must say, I'm really impressed. I reached out to her because I could really use all the help I can get. We've set up a call for further discussion.
I think everyone has heard about Case-Schiller and their economic mastery.
But I never heard Schiller talk, and he rambles on and on just like Buffet.
For a Yale Prof Schiller cannot get his ideas and message across very well.
Obviously he is on some spectrum, but a lecturer or educator he is most definitely NOT.
But he has created a nice graph.
Now is a bad time to buy?
I sold 8 years ago waiting for the prices to go down, they didn't but interest rates did, I jumped back in 3 1/2 years ago with a 2.9% and my house has now doubled in value. I am glad I stopped listening to all the naysayers telling me to wait, wait, wait.
They want to price everyone out so their 2030 agenda of "You will own nothing and be happy" will come true.
Even if you have to purchase a smaller house in another area/region do yourself a favor and purchase something and make sure it is affordable for your budget.
I'm impressed with the professor taking into consideration the fact that people need homes for themselves and families. However, at the end of the day, the value of homes is determined by what they can be sold for, and NOTHING else. All we hear is that "no one can afford a home anymore". Obviously they can afford it, or prices would drop.
GDP's already negative, the housing market's already crashing (see all-time high number of price reductions without any sales still), all-time consumer credit card debt, unemployment is skyrocketing and will surpass 2009's 10% peak. Homes and stocks will crash 60%. It's literally 3rd grade math. It was always inevitable. Already seeing it in every single asset class other than the Crypto market ....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine duguay program is widely available online..
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
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Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
I think the crash already started in places like Austin and Phoenix.
Manhattan rents annd Mississippi wages.
All bubbles are delt with by printing trillions and lower the prime rate. Since we are in a bubble burst economic system this is always the cure.
Yep, it always makes me laugh when people say 2007 was different because of ARMs and subprime loans. Those 2 things added artificial demand which created unaffordable homes, otherwise known as a bubble. The market crashed due to sheerly unaffordable homes relative to the median income. Those loans weren't HALF as bad as the 10 million loans from 2021-2023 where people with good credit financed a $350,000 home with 2% down while taking home only $65,000. What people don't see is that half of those people are going to lose their income entirely over the next year or 2, causing a race to low prices that make 2008 look like a warmup. Largest bubble in world history according to literally all the math. What should really scare people is that in 2007-2008, NONE of our other bills like insurance, groceries and utilities went up 50% simultaneously like they did this time, compounding the bubble and overall debt to income issue we see right now.
@@enthused7591 half of people will lose their income entirely? That seems like a bit of a stretch. But your point about all the other household bills going up at the same time is on point.
Except for inflation which is an unavoidable mathematical phenomenon. Just because that has worked for a while doesn't mean that will work forever. Eventually all that printing catches up to the economy.
@@derek4412 You have to read bud. I said there are 10 million bad loans from 2021-2023 and half of THOSE people will lose everything they own, making it a worse foreclosure crisis and crash than 2008, and it will be. It's purely math, and not a single piece of math points to the contrary.
@@jonathantaylor6926 Printing can go on forever ,until we all need wheel barrels to carry 5 cents worth of cash.
People are using Thier homes to pay the bills by taking the equity out. Once the credit shifts and can no longer be obtained this stops. 17trillion in debt in the residential housing market alone , a moratorium on refinancing in the commercial realestate sector have them until March of 2025 to get Thier 💩 together unless they choose to extend it forever March is it .
A Yale professor might consider metro-Miami typical of the South but few who live in the South think that's true. Miami and Southern Florida in general are filled with retires from the NE. That inflates a housing market.
We're not witnessing an increase in price, and haven't been for a year. We ARE witnessing .01% of homes valued at above $600,000 still selling in indescribably small numbers. Why does that push numbers up on paper? Because the other 99.99% of homes under $600,000 have had multiple 10%+ price reductions and STILL aren't selling. You have to have a transaction for those homes to affect the median home price SOLD, and plain and simply, we're witnessing the lowest demand for homes in literally all of world history at these prices. In reality, the US housing market is down 20% year over year total in terms of price and in complete freefall until we find out what people are willing to pay for typical homes again. It'll likely be a year from now at 40+% down from 2023 prices and continue to fall, as we watch unemployment rocket past 15%. Can't ignore math, and ALL the math is worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude. Literally 45% worse than 2007 peak bubble.
My god did you just tell ChatGPT to write the most factually incorrect statement on the housing economy in the US? Your numbers are garbage😊
No one can afford a house and insurance companys can't afford to cover them. Whats coming will make 2008 look like a boom.
No one? That's clearly not true because there are houses selling and closing everyday.
@@Singlesix6 you say that so confidently!
Consumers must consume less as more of their resources must go towards covering the mortgage. What happens to a consumer driven economy when less consumption is taking place? When flagrant shoplifting becomes the norm?
@@skipstalforce65 percent of Americans are home owners. That’s the majority of people.
I bought a home in August 2007 in an Iowa exurb. $116k, taxed at $112k. Now taxed at $158k and judging by recent sales on this street could be sold between $180k and $205k.Yes, I've done some improvements and kept up with maintenance, but even with inflation I did not expect this. This home is 780 square feet, four rooms with a full basement, brick construction on a half acre.
Depending on your location, that high valuation for such a small home could be driven by the half-acre of land. The buyer (or developer) would be someone wanting to demolish it and build something larger. I saw that in my NE Seattle neighborhood in the 1980s. Because of the location, little homes built long before were selling at high prices. They were demolished and replaced with multi-story ones that barely fit onto the lot.
@@Inkling777 There's undeveloped land still in town. This house is 1/4 mile from the school yard, 1/2 mile from a nationally recognized bike path.
New construction is going for over 300k Price is driven by
1) it's vicinity and distance (25-351, about half of that agricultural land) miles to a midwest metro that is thriving and did pretty well during and after the covid shutdowns
2) The school system is consistently in the top ten in the state
3) crime is low, church attendance is high. There's even a boy scout troop in town still.
Nice little town. In 4 years or so since retiring I've walked nearly 3,700 miles in town and not been molested or abused.
Schiller admires Janet Yellen...that gives me pause about either his intelligence or morals.
Of course Mr Dunning-Kruger! Once gain you are correct!
@@bricktop7803 Awww. did you get your little feelings hurt? Do you need a hug? LOL!
Janet “Inflation is transitory” Yellen is hardly a praise worthy economist.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
‘’Marisa Breton Dollard’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
The problem with Schiller's predictions is that he predicts crashes years if not decades before they happen. It brings to mind the old expression, "even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
" No one can predict the realesate market. " Waren Buffet
People do not need a 5,000 square foot house, we did it to ourself. Lets go back to houses that are 1500 square feet, we dont need 4 bathrooms, a living room and a den, a library and a study, 3 car garage, and that so necessary 20 by 30 bedroom. Look for a home that meets your needs not your wants. I live in a 1300 sq ft home. When I visit my friends homes I come home with a sense of saddness. At that moment I want a big shiny palace. But on the other hand,we have money, no debt of any kind. We retired at 52 and we have never looked back.
Hurricane alley? Uninsurable? Corruption in state and local governments?
when people say our powerful people should be trusted because they are smart, watch your wallet
With the advent of QE, all past indicators, i.e. bond yield inversion, etc. are now meaningless. $9 trillion of QE went to the mega rich and they are buying. Prices are now the new normal. When interest rates go down, there will too many buyers for the supply. High homes prices won't collapse.
The rich will own all the houses, all the farms, all the stocks and bonds, all the governments.
look at the areas with the huge price increases. They are not California. These huge increases in home prices are in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and other states. I live in California and our home prices have been stagnant for over 2 or 3 years.
It is the southern states where many have moved since 2008.
The huge crash will be in other places outside California.
You also have to look at population trends
BINGO …. The new “hype” places will either need to create high-paying jobs (a very difficult thing to do) or else there will need to be a major correction. California will be fine because we already have high paying jobs and we didnt over-build (actually we’re still massively under-built if anything). California prices are CHEAP right now believe it or not lol. Other states have had 15-20% gains the past 2 years while we have stayed basically flat but starting to grow now too. Watch what happens to SF prices in the coming years. Gonna be insane. ALWAYS look for the discount deals, NEVER the hype places.
@@TrevForPresidentCalifornia okly lost population between 2020-2022. By the end of 2023 the population is back to GAINING again lol. In total something like 600,000 people left (NET) …. That’s nothing when we have 40,000,000 and could INSTANTLY add more by lowering regulation on home-building (which we dont want). We wanna keep our state less dense and difficult to move to.
@@RandomRabbit007The population increases in California are mostly low wage migrants. People with money seem to be going to Texas.
@@jeffrobodine8579 I know some people that were low income/low education that went to Texas, I dont know anyone wealthy that left. I know VERY FEW people young that left, lots of older/elderly people left for an easier retirement. Young people wanting to make it BIG in their career are staying in Cali.
The 3 points given by Shiller, I believe they are mis-ordered. The root cause of rapidly increasing prices and increased price to income ration is speculative buying. The demand caused by speculative buyers only causes more speculative buyers, which causes the prices to skyrocket, thereby increasing the price to income ratio to unattainable levels.
How do you get an accurate measure of flipping subtracted from normal home sales? And how do you subtract the effect of Airbnb and institutional investing from individuals and carve of the pie so you see the differences of the effects attribution?
A housing depression? Nobody in the video ever mentions this or explains how we'll get to a "housing depression." You can't get the type of conditions in the housing market talked about in this video with the current state of ultra-low employment. We're also heading to a decrease in interest rates for the remainder of the year and all next year. At most what we'll see is a plateau in housing prices.
In many places like Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Tampa, Orlando, etc., inventory is high, many websites showing that and many articles...facts!!
Those people blabbing about stats are interrupting the stats on TH-cam. If you refuse to believe is then it’s your fault if you didn’t prepare.
It only looks like a price increase, because the value of the dollar has dropped so much.
Imagine if the dollar was worth, one cent. How many would you need to buy a home today.
Yet other currencies have dropped against the US$.
Last year our house in Dallas was worth 340,today we just accepted a offer for 255
Doesn't matter. It's been impossible to purchase property in America for years and this will never change. It's all by design.
I built a concrete structure (shed with stucco walls and concrete floor) for under $5k. Why can’t I just build my own house? Why can’t I just have some land? Foreigners have more promising bank accounts
@@mikethefenceguy You can! Go to any of the many countries that don’t have or enforce building code. Your problem is that you expect to get for free what others paid and continue to pay dearly for.
It was very possible from 2012-2019
It must have taken the narrator some time to put this video together. Miami is collapsing already.
Really ? Remove 3 story condos and rerun your numbers..I think you will be surprized
Based on the stock index prices in the Schiller interview, this is at least a couple of years old.
Houses in Murfreesboro tn are going up about 15 percent the last 5 years! My home has jumped from $235,000 To around $525,000 since 2013!
His analysis predates, institutional investment on individual houses so the price the income ratio Misses the Mark definitely need a broader framework to do justice
You have to first and address the assumptions at time of original publications and figure out if anyone revisited incorrect assumptions in the present date
Where I am, during 2008, housing prices continued to rise. The line just went from 10 prospective cash offers to about 6 or 7. It's really about how many people want to live in the same place. From a regional perspective, recessions have no effect when demand is combined with incomes that can afford the downturn and occupations that don't really experience layoffs.
Why is the S&P at 3977.53 @ 7:05
Then add foreclosures, job loss numbers which are up, aka The Ression marker, and its a perfect storm to pop a bubble. ❤
This video title is not adequately supported by the video content.
That was a lot of words to say nothing.
Quick Recap:
Housing prices will continue to rise as there is a scarcity of inventory in preferred locations.
Housing prices will peak when reach or exceed 45% of gross income. That's time to sell high and chase the empty houses vacated by those moving on up by buying a house like yours.
The housing market has figured out how to maintain unaffordable high prices and speculator company excess profits.
In short, like so many industries they have consolidated the players with mergers and takeovers to the point they don't compete on price anymore. A flooded market of excess inventory will not drive down housing prices because maintaining high prices offsets much of the cost of holding unsold homes.
"W" showed the impact of interest rates. Even at rates less than 1%, people were not buying because there was no excess wealth to move up in the World. This was due in large part to the dimwitted Republican Economic Policy.
That is, the more wealth you squirrel away in the top 5%, the less wealth for the 95% to drive the economy. This is why Republican Administrations always end in recession, and Democratic Administrations always rebuild to a growth economy.
I dont care if the value of my property crashes, cause it would mean the property tax would decrease and that would make me super happy. Since we own outright and dont plan on leaving it would only save us more money. Its a win win scenario for me. 😂 in fact we would welcome the value of our property dropping. Owning our own home has saved us 50,000 in two years 74000 in three years.
Nothing since 2008 has changed and that's the way the industry likes it. They always win regardless of how many people lose because they've got hedged bets on basically every conceivable scenario. Everyday people? Not so much... Just because Miami is the NEW New York doesn't mean everyone should rush to buy in now.. I have a feeling this fall will see another real estate/economic shake down that will really hit the region like the video says... How could it not? I mean the pace on the treadmill is unsustainable now much less before you factor in the wall of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next quarter or two...
Lol. Florida is already collapsing. Look at inventory growth and sale volume.
Hahahaha...the only thing crashing is condo's within 3 miles of the coast over 3 stories high and 30 years old...my little 1900 sq ft ranch is up 300% in 4 years...a 2% or even 30% drop ( that would be worse than the great depression BTW) still pursuing me up...and prices are still rising
Sure bud... I believe you....
Florida's collapse is driven entirely by the new laws that require retrofitting of large condos. But that's because those homes are now being forced to price in risk that has always been there. Homes that don't have those issues aren't really declining in any meaningful way.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 winner winner chicken dinner
@@AUniqueHandleName444 keep believing that if it makes you feel better...
How the hell do you make an American real estate index with almost not datapoints on the South!?
the crash will be worse in 2008, so many cracks forming...
Define High Interest rates? The rates before you are higher than they have been in past years, however....back in....1980...Were they not 18%?
....somewhere in the 1990s they were at 9%.....
I imagine people are still buying because they look back at the last 50 years then make their decisions.
A lot of TH-camrs are sales personals. The information they provided a lot of time have business sponsor behind it. Do you research before believing in any information on TH-cam.
You can never time the "top" unfortunately.
I'm a boomer and I don't know many people planning to move south for retirement. I personally moved to DE and got a good price on a home in a beautiful neighborhood. I am reasonably close to the beaches and still enjoy 4 seasons. But when I ask about why people aren't moving south, the crazy, racist politics of the south always pops up. Can't really blame them.
This feels less like the housing depression line and more like the Mason-Dixon line
So is MHFIN thinking there WILL be a housing correction?!?
“Smart people on the Fed,” No thank you Henry Paulson
Bottom line: will I be able to buy that $950,000.00 house in myrtle beach for $575,000.00 when the housing crashes? I am not that lucky. Prices will only go up from here.
LOL. Prices will drop after you buy.
@@MB-xe8bb I feel like I'm all dressed up with nowhere to go.
Shoot, are you serious? There is an incredible bubble and you’d be an idiot to buy a house today. I’m a housekeeper and I know that.
I just terminated my listing this morning. Troy, Ohio. Was on the market for 60 days with not one serious offer. Cut the price $45k over that time down to $165k. Nobody wants affordable renovated homes. Listed for rent instead.
Before everyone comes in here and mogs me, listen, I renovated this house myself. I put $80k into it AND 22 MONTHS OF MY LIFE. I did all the work myself. I did not do this for free. I'm not giving this property away. You don't want affordable housing. You don't want to make the necessary compromises required to have an affordable life. You just don't. If you did, my house would have sold in a day.
Folks could be tapped out though.
No. Body. cares that you put in time to do all the work.
If it’s a general upgrade such as a remodeled kitchen, bathroom, etc it should help. Certain upgrades such as a pool will sell for more in certain neighborhoods while in others it won’t. You usually won’t get all of your money back on work done by remodeling a property. Like the previous comment stated I think most people are tapped out and we may already be at a peak in the housing market. Rates already have been adjusted for the upcoming rate cut and as of today the chances for two cuts decreased to 25 percent. We are heading into the slower time of the year for home sales, best of luck to you.
@@Ja56780 it’s a down to the studs renovation
@@AlenAbdula okay allah akbar
That line looks targeted
why did you show a video of Shiller from a year and a half ago? Doesn't really support your point that well.
Well a year and a half ago is the problem. 18 months of activity changes things.
So what, the message is clear. What makes you think the timeline is important. The message is important. It does illustrate the guy is ahead of his time and peers.
Try to analyse information better instead of your diatribe.
@@bricktop7803 yes sir sorry sir
There's a big difference between owner and the house and owner house.If you have a mortgage you don't own the house
This is so simple: it’s inflation. Housing prices ARE NOT going down.
Money that you Own. Money that cannot be double spent
Everywhere I turn, in Central West Florida, huge subdivisions of expensive, single family homes are being constructed. I think this is a future glut being created. Many may be left vacant of not completed, I think. Nobody knows when it all breaks. If Trump gets back in, thats when the truth will drag everything down to reality. Until then, stimulation may keep it going. My 2 cent best guess, now costs a nickel due to inflation.
Are home and stock prices really that high?
Everything should cost 50-100% more,
they printed 50-100% more money than was in existence in last 4 years,
Another BS video
10 minutes to say the experts say "I don't know"? We all know the market will cool off (correct) sometime in the future. The question is when?
@@chumps7974
Tell me when Fannie Mae gets audited and I’ll tell you when the housing bubble will burst.
I heard nothing in this video that's particularly surprising but disagree with this video that we are the leader to a national recession and in particular a housing bubble popping.
Unmentioned in this video is that FL is a special problem because in the past year alone new construction went absolutely crazy and built so many homes at once that it's total housing inventory increased 30%. That's absolutely nuts, and combined that with the inability to insure homes and of course you're going to see massive numbers of unsold and vacant homes and a crash.
Another factor are all the poorly managed red states below your "poverty" line. Lousy economics and lousy job prospects mean lousy home sales
Compare all that to California for example. Particularly in the high tech communities of Silicon Valley, Orange and LA counties and San Diego, I don't think you'll find anyone predicting even a pause in skyrocketing housing prices
As always, there's more to the situation than just numbers.
When you look more closely at the state and local governments and their history of Conservative NIMBYism vs Progressive support for business activity, you'll start to fin reasons for the economic divide.
@Tonysul
You are mistaken in that Texas' job prospects and economy have been outgrowing California. The exception is CaliAustin. It's had crazy home prices since the 1990's.
Seems that many companies that you rely on for CA's job stability are running for the exit door. SpaceX, X, Tesla to name a few.... investment firms in SFO.... drop in tourism due to crime.... movie production is off.... Disney tourism is down.... If you also look objectively, the number of homes on the market in the areas that you called out have increased and the sales are stagnant for many, with only the best of the best being sold. There are some good deals in Palos Verdes Estates.....
Even Appalachia has high rents.
Thank you.
My house is worth a mint the one I want is worth a mint and a half.
My house is small but in a great location. I am blessed. I have no mortgage and I am three feet off of the ground.
He admires Yellen? Ok my respect for him plummeted.
Sure glad I own my home and don’t owe a Penny 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Decentralized Protocol that does not have a Single Point of Failure.
You should be looking at how the Fed's MBS to Treasury Ratio - Fed Balance sheet is around 7.1 trillion now - I expect Fed would like to reduce it to around 6.85-6.9 trillion by end of 2024. There is no case for a meaningful comparison between 2008 subprime lending crisis and today, given rising wages, interest rates, inflation, and inventory. Home ownership demographics are changing especially among Latinos and minorities, and given wage increases prices are actually on the lower side. No homeowner will be distress selling in this market, since they will struggle to buy another home given the market and lack of (quality) inventory.
Longer videos please.
Shorter video please.