The potential housing downturn is definitely concerning, especially with the broader economic uncertainty. I'm focusing on defensive stocks and companies with strong balance sheets, but I’m also considering real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a way to benefit from market corrections. Diversification feels key right now.
I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.
Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q3 2024.
More wealthy individuals have vacant extra houses than homeless people in the USA at least. Everyone could be housed, but that simply isn't profitable to capitalists.
When houses became an “investment” it was only a matter of time before greedy people and companies started buying them up. I know 4 people who own multiple houses in my area and I can see why there is a “housing shortage”. That’s just 4 people i personally know here in my local area. Now imagine how many more people are doing the same thing.
I’ve seen the same. Everyone and their brother wants to own 10 houses. There simply are not enough houses for that to be possible. Currently on the west coast a house can’t be rented for the mortgage cost without a 50% down payment and investors can find a lot better return on $250k elsewhere.
Homes only became a major investment because of ridiculous FED policy. Who wants a 10 year bond paying 0.55%? That's only $5,500 per year on a million dollars. Absurd. The longterm average for the 10 year is 5.84% or over $58,000 per year on 1M. The FED broke the bond market and investors found alternatives. Cheap money has consequences yet I heard little complaints from people as the FED hammered rates down to effectively zero.
If you want an answer to "should I buy a home right now" The answer is always, "you should buy when you can afford to buy" That's it. That is the only answer that anyone can or should give you. No one can predict the future. if you are trying to time the market, you are just gambling with your future. Sometimes you will be right, sometimes you will be wrong. And the same goes with the question "should I sell my home right now". Again, you should sell when it makes sense for you. Schiller is right to not want to answer those questions. Because even the best minds in history, have no idea what the future holds. Yes housing prices will eventually come down. Yes there will eventually be a crash. And yes there will eventually be a bubble if there isn't already one. But the real issue and the only one that matters, is that NO ONE can tell you when. If I had a crystal ball and told you with 100% certainty that housing prices are going to crash 50% in 2027, you would automatically assume that you should wait to buy until then. But what if between now and 2027, housing prices went up 300%? They would be 50% higher in 2027, than they are right now, even with a 50% crash. For the love of God, stop trying to time the market.
Yeah. I was told that in 2006🤣. Unfortunately buying a house is no longer that simple as it might have been for you when you were young….Now we know you can lose your shirt. You SHOULD time the market. It’s a heavy investment not to do your due diligence. Buying at the peak is DUMB.
Did you forget your link to "my Real estate business"? A bit of an overly simplistic view I'd say. Housing to salary ratios are more important than if it continues to go up. If you can't afford to buy your home now it's not going to get easier with maintenance, taxes and insurance going up.
The US Banking system certainly DID NOT learn in 2008 and changed NOTHING. After 2008 the European banking system changed drastically. In the UK, the banks stripped out their toxic assets. The result was - 80% of loss making branches closed. No more cheques or money orders. Everything is done digitally or by a phone App. What happens in Europe get transported across to the US. The US banking Sector are going to experience WORSE pain than we did in 2008. You guys changed NOTHING.
Of course it is…moofs got so gloriously wealthy from crashing the economy in 08, they just had to do again, this time with the ‘rona twist. This Jam ain’t never stopping.
In 1966 my father bought his first home for $15,500. He earned $7,500 a year as an autobody repairman. Last year the house across the street which is smaller and on a narrow lot sold for $989,000.
So theoretically the person today would have to be making $500,000 a year to afford that house. But today unlike in the 60s there is a dual income Plus a lot of parents give their kids the down payment I think this is why the prices have gone through the roof
I did the inflation calculation, your father made the equivalent of $73k a year, and the house cost $151k. That’s an increase of 654%! I think my calculations are correct….
People do not need a 5,000 square foot house, we did it to ourself. Lets go back to houses that are 1500 square feet, we dont need 4 bathrooms, a living room and a den, a library and a study, 3 car garage, and that so necessary 20 by 30 bedroom. Look for a home that meets your needs not your wants. I live in a 1300 sq ft home. When I visit my friends homes I come home with a sense of saddness. At that moment I want a big shiny palace. But on the other hand,we have money, no debt of any kind. We retired at 52 and we have never looked back.
Roger that me and my wife did the same thing have nothing to prove to anyone and I really don't care what other people besides my wife thinks about anything your so on point
@@talisikid1618 Tax square footage of homes not the acreage. That way farms. and ranches are not over taxed. Acreage does nit use resources such as public services. I own a small 55 goat farm in a remote area and pay five times in property taxes then the neighborhood does, totally unfair.
Now is a bad time to buy? I sold 8 years ago waiting for the prices to go down, they didn't but interest rates did, I jumped back in 3 1/2 years ago with a 2.9% and my house has now doubled in value. I am glad I stopped listening to all the naysayers telling me to wait, wait, wait. They want to price everyone out so their 2030 agenda of "You will own nothing and be happy" will come true. Even if you have to purchase a smaller house in another area/region do yourself a favor and purchase something and make sure it is affordable for your budget.
Whose agenda? When's the last time you *bought* a CD or Blu-Ray? How about a software suite? It's already happening, and the corporations are pushing it.
The problem with the housing market is that you just don't know how long its disassociation from reality can continue--look at Australia for example, the market has been totally removed from affordability for well over a decade.
The reality is that houses costs at this point are being limited by building costs in most places. I don't really see how, given the lack of housing inventory, we're going to see a serious price decline.
@@addmix Immigration is a factor, but not the central cause. The U.S. housing crisis at least is more due to zoning laws, economic inequalities and incentives, and our subsequent lack of affordable housing development, especially post 2008.
My friend lives in Los Angeles. She purchased her home in 2020, and since has spent $3.00 for a new light switch plate. That's the extent of her home improvements. Her home has increased over $600,000 in value since buying.
Or the “value” of the dollar has decreased (thanks to printing trillions more of them). Thank the Pandemic for this, largest transfer of wealth in human history.
@@RandomRabbit007yeah most of that isn’t “from printing money” that stopped over 3 years ago. This is companies saying you’re going to pay more because you’ll still believe that line of printing money and blame someone else
@@Jebbis go look at the M3 money supply on the official Fed website (you can just google it) and look at 2020 .... Now compare that to the last 60 YEARS!!!! You act like they didnt print an INSANE amount of money, we never even SPOKE about a TRILLION dollars before 2020. That number was considered RIDICULOUS. Printed 6-7 TRILLION dollars bro .... and Inflation has been astronomical and is still high today!! Sure companies are also profiting massively.
@@Jebbisthat is objectively wrong. How would a "company" determine how much someone would pay for another person's house? It takes years for newly printed money to make its way through the economy.
Tough* to make a prediction in a fake environment. Imagine a boat, it can hold up to 10,000 gallons of water before it sinks. There's a hole leaking 500 gallons a minute into the hull, how long till it sinks? Hard to say, there's some Uncle Sam dude down there w/ a pump and he refuses to tell us the specs.
I am currently in my 50s and This is no time to taper retirement savings. I want to max out my retirement contributions and I also have another $120k in a savings account that I want to invest in a non-retirement account. Where would you invest this as of now?
Look up, dividend aristocrats. Pick six to ten from that list. Those companies have a track record of 25+ years of paying dividends. Also, you should work with a financial advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
@@HopesKruses I agree. Based on personal experience working with a financial advisor, I currently have $800k in a well-diversified portfolìo that has experienced exponential growth from when I started. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
@@KarenDuncan-o5s Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My retirement portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with these banks is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
In my opinion, some of the banks was attempting to restructure their bond portfolio, which involved selling their low-yielding bonds despite the potential loss, and compensating for it by buying higher-interest-rate bonds on the open market.
Despite the economy's resilience thus far, the banks scenario cautions that the effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes persist. During such periods, investors must remain alert to anticipate what comes next. It is not necessary to act on every prediction, so I recommend seeking the guidance of a financial advisor, which has been my go-to advice for some time now.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelm” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
I live in the Dallas, TX area. I bought a house in June 2019. It gained about 80% of its value, then lost about 15% of the new value, and now in the last few months it's risen back to almost the highest total value it has had.
Nothing changed in terms of speculation from 2008. They just rebranded it. Imo, there is even more speculation this time. Especially with companies like Airbnb obfuscating the market and making money in arbitrage.
Good point about Airbnb. I'm a teacher also with an MA from Yale, but I've chosen a life and career abroad as a freelance language teacher which in a nutshell pays little annually. So I'll never be able to buy into any housing market regardless of the conditions at that time. However, Airbnb and other apps have made even renting basic decent accomodation inland here in Spain or elsewhere very difficult, forgetting about the coasts. Homeowners in tourist towns across Spain are raking in the dough.
@@jayclarke6671 it's like that all over Europe. Am from the Balkans, Croatia and many coastal countries have seen significant rise in prices where locals can't afford these prices.
@@AlenAbdula yes homeowners are renting places weekly even daily where they can bring in 2000+ a month for normal places at the beach, even up to 5-10K a month for luxurious homes. That's a lot of dough.
Bingo. Most financial youtubers got their start at or around the start of the pandemic, when every noob convinced themselves they're now an investing genius. They're about to learn a VERY hard lesson. This will be 45% worse than 2008 because simply ALL the math is 45% worse than the 2007 peak bubble.
Sounds like a skeptical outlook on things then. With the rate cuts do you think it's best for us who are not conservative investors to focus on bonds or dividend stocks? I want to reallocate my 7-figure portfolio and I preferably want the assets with the best ROI.
Bonds are a safer bet. They offer good stable yields. But dividend stocks could make you a fortune if you know how to go about it. But it's always a good idea to work with a CFA. It streamline your strategy and help profit a lot.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds…At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case 80% stock crash, Thanks to my CFA
My CFA ’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Been hearing about a housing crash since 2020 and even before and all those predictions were wrong. We need a depression to knock home prices back to 2019 levels.
Supply is so low that there is no way it will crash. Expecting a crash is foolish. Everyone NEEDS a home to live in and Biden/Harris allowed 30,000,000 illegals to enter America too.
according to zillow, our house near raleigh, nc increased in "value" by 70% between jan '21 and jun '22 when nothing changed except the value of the dollar. yeah our networth looks healthier but our kids won't be able to afford anything worthwhile for a long time unless there's reversion to the mean/trend. gov't induced devaluation of currency should be criminal.
Interest rates need to rise. Purchasing power restored to purchasers, instead of stripped away by capitalist lending class who will see their assets rise in value with reduced rates. Rates must rise and September will see them cut here in the US. Awful times are enroute.
Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable , but others say it's risky. Any advice?
Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Just remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.
Your best option if you don't know much about the market is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Though it may seem easy, hiring a consultant has helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January. I think it's currently the best way to get started in the field.
Overpriced real estate, out of balance Price/Earnings ratio, inverted yield curve, and the promise of widespread tariffs to come in January. The adage "don't try to time the markets" applies, but it's hard to see anything good on the horizon.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed that of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data going back to 2014. Those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.
Keep in mind that Irrational Exuberance was published several years ahead of the housing crash. All of his factors got much more out of whack before the crash. In reference to the stock market it has been said that the markets can remain irrational much longer than most people can remain solvent. Same applies to all markets.
The crash he predicted was caused by subprime mortgages given to people who should never have gotten a loan . Today that’s rare and nothing he says has any relevance to today’s market . Today it’s overinflated house prices with high interest rates in an inflated economy .Credit card debt is over a trillion dollars and it’s an election year so the economy is being propped up when it’s really in shambles ..There will be a sizable downturn after the election continuing till mid next year but we won’t see another crash like it happened before
I don't even think we'll have a sizable downtown. I doubt it'll be more than 1-2% for maybe 2-3 more years. The supply side is simply too tight. Building is ridiculously expensive, and there is so much money floating around out there. Plus with airbnb, there's a whole additional source of housing demand. If tech employment picks up (which it probably will within 2 years), we will be right on back to growth.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 It’s already happening in states like Florida and Texas ..The housing markets are way overvalued . Unemployment is rising and despite lower interest rates people are still not buying . There is record number of people backing out of contracts . I don’t believe it will be another crash like the big one of 08 because the next one coming won’t be caused by subprime loans , it will be cause by increasing personal debt and unemployment as companies downsize and layoff people . And the biggest elephant in the room is AI that’s going to put many people out of work and nobody is even looking at that .
From my vantage point in Southern California, the biggest problem with using the usual income to price ratio to measure the market is because "single family" homes just aren't single family anymore. I've lived in my current home for 16 years and in the beginning it really was single families. Now at best there are a few homes that have multiple generations of the same family, but most are multiple families in the same home. So the same prices - or higher - that were completely unsustainable in 2008 are now not only affordable but are even more secure because any one job loss is a much smaller percentage of the income used to pay for it.
Owning a home today isn’t as feasible or desirable as it once was, and for many, it's no longer the "American Dream." Job security has changed; companies rarely show long-term loyalty to employees, and people often change jobs frequently. Renting offers flexibility, if a new opportunity arises, I can move within weeks without the hassle of selling a home or worrying about fluctuating real estate markets. For younger generations, homeownership is seen less as an investment and more as a liability. It comes with ongoing costs like property taxes, maintenance, and even the risk of eminent domain. Homes don’t truly increase in value; inflation erodes the dollar’s worth, which creates the illusion of price appreciation. In the end, homes are built with banks in mind, not people. The value lies in viewing a home as a temporary space, like a hospital, you get in, you get out, and you stay financially flexible.
A Yale professor might consider metro-Miami typical of the South but few who live in the South think that's true. Miami and Southern Florida in general are filled with retires from the NE. That inflates a housing market.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
I just copied and pasted Jennafer’s whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
What folks have to do is break up the value of the house into the value of the land and value of the improvements (the latter of which is somewhat commensurate with the cost to do new construction, depending on the condition/age/ageOfRenovation of the house). From there it's mostly a simple analysis of how much would it cost to produce a homesite at a new subdivision at the farthest interstate exit, and determine if it's so far away relative to the house in question to justify the difference. I look at markets that absolutely have no geographical impediment* to have those new subdivisions, but still have a high land-value component, and see red. The markets that this applies to are Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, Tampa, Orlando. These are places that had always had modest housing prices until recently, and which then exploded in value. (Denver has half of an impediment - the mountains! - but the East side is all open; Phoenix has the complication of running out of water, but why would anyone want to move to Phoenix if the housing prices are high?) The coastal cities are mainly hemmed in by the fact that someone looking for an inexpensive homesite would need to travel FAR to get into the central city (like Pike County, PA for NYC, or Modesto/Stockton for SF, or Lancaster/Victorville/Hemet for L.A., LOL), although once the jobs bubble bursts, those whole regions will deflate as folks take that attitude that if they are going to be unemployed, they might as well do so in cheap locale.
I would like Schilllers opinion regarding the effect of AirBnB and Institutional buyers on this housing market. The dynamics r now different than they were in 2008 as these two factors entered the market n took up the slack in inventory
Schiller opinions are always based on long term deviations from mean. He doesn’t have anything relevant to new tech or trends. He has/had an indicator for equities that has been comicly wrong for the four decades I have been investing because it completely neglects intelectual property. AirB&B can be implicated and convicted of contributing to housing shortages in the nearly all the least affordable markets. Just count the local ST listings and compare to the local shortage. "Institutional buyers” are no intrinsic problem as long as they don’t remove housing or reach local monopoly size. There is a new monopoly problem that doesn’t require the risk of concentrated ownership -“Rent Optimization” software services. With AI tracking of everything people do online they can get the maximum rent. Politicians like to blame “Wall Street” because they are big and unpopular.
@@skyak4493 You bring up a point that is seldom mentioned when people look back on recessions. We have lighting fast communication. Chances are that news will spread quickly, a crash could take place and people can rebound faster than ever once good news starts to circulate. Keep in mind...the world's most expensive cities are outside of the United states...so buying in the US is still a deal for foreigners parking money. Can I say foreigners or is there some fancier word that I'm supposed to use these days? Peoples who don't live here full time.
@@Dancing_Alone_wRentals The way I see it, home prices are not over replacement cost. The vast majority of the problem is near urban centers, and new “affordable” homes are not profitable to build. This only a “crisis” in political terms (in the US), and it is urban. The first and obvious thing to do is to tax/regulate things that raise price and take homes out of use -short term rentals, and any property held for investment or even not a primary residence. Tax/regulate these and use all proceeds to build only affordable housing in mass transit corridors.
@@skyak4493 I believe rentals are taxed at a higher rate everywhere. To me that would mean the taxes could be raised some but would it be worth it? The outcry of tenant groups would be harsh on politicians. All fees, taxes, and fines are paid by the tenants....add to this loan service and we would be hurting tenants again. The residential rental business is pretty hands on tough, I'm surprised that big investors are buying up rentals. When I research the numbers it turns out they really don't have many vs the mom & pops. I wish tenants were better educated, I think their voting with their feet would help. Interesting stuff. tHanks for your comments.
@@skyak4493 I do agree with some of your proposals, but how about building more housing? NIMBY-ism and overly strict zoning laws contribute greatly to the housing shortage especially in the coastal areas of the NE and West Coasts.
It's quite concerning to see the various challenges our economy is facing right now, from uncertainties to housing issues, bad weather conditions, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, all contributing to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions definitely require immediate attention from all sectors to bring back stability and promote growth. How do you think these issues can be effectively addressed?
It's a bit unsettling to see the US dollar losing value due to inflation while other currencies are gaining momentum, creating a sense of uncertainty. Despite this, there's still a level of trust in the perceived safety of the dollar. I understand your concern about your $420,000 retirement savings potentially losing value. Exploring alternative options for securing your money sounds like a wise move. Have you considered any specific alternatives or strategies to safeguard your retirement savings?
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I'm grateful for your help. After looking up her name online and checking out her credentials, I must say, I'm really impressed. I reached out to her because I could really use all the help I can get. We've set up a call for further discussion.
I think everyone has heard about Case-Schiller and their economic mastery. But I never heard Schiller talk, and he rambles on and on just like Buffet. For a Yale Prof Schiller cannot get his ideas and message across very well. Obviously he is on some spectrum, but a lecturer or educator he is most definitely NOT. But he has created a nice graph.
look at the areas with the huge price increases. They are not California. These huge increases in home prices are in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and other states. I live in California and our home prices have been stagnant for over 2 or 3 years. It is the southern states where many have moved since 2008. The huge crash will be in other places outside California.
BINGO …. The new “hype” places will either need to create high-paying jobs (a very difficult thing to do) or else there will need to be a major correction. California will be fine because we already have high paying jobs and we didnt over-build (actually we’re still massively under-built if anything). California prices are CHEAP right now believe it or not lol. Other states have had 15-20% gains the past 2 years while we have stayed basically flat but starting to grow now too. Watch what happens to SF prices in the coming years. Gonna be insane. ALWAYS look for the discount deals, NEVER the hype places.
@@TrevForPresidentCalifornia okly lost population between 2020-2022. By the end of 2023 the population is back to GAINING again lol. In total something like 600,000 people left (NET) …. That’s nothing when we have 40,000,000 and could INSTANTLY add more by lowering regulation on home-building (which we dont want). We wanna keep our state less dense and difficult to move to.
@@jeffrobodine8579 I know some people that were low income/low education that went to Texas, I dont know anyone wealthy that left. I know VERY FEW people young that left, lots of older/elderly people left for an easier retirement. Young people wanting to make it BIG in their career are staying in Cali.
We built a 3 bedroom 2 bath house in a planned neighborhood with a large backyard. We knew HOA fees were coming within a year. The building and selling of houses has slowed down significantly. We sold our house in another state so we were able to pay cash. I wish the market was more stable for my oldest daughter who is married with preschool age children.
People are using Thier homes to pay the bills by taking the equity out. Once the credit shifts and can no longer be obtained this stops. 17trillion in debt in the residential housing market alone , a moratorium on refinancing in the commercial realestate sector have them until March of 2025 to get Thier 💩 together unless they choose to extend it forever March is it .
I bought a home in August 2007 in an Iowa exurb. $116k, taxed at $112k. Now taxed at $158k and judging by recent sales on this street could be sold between $180k and $205k.Yes, I've done some improvements and kept up with maintenance, but even with inflation I did not expect this. This home is 780 square feet, four rooms with a full basement, brick construction on a half acre.
Depending on your location, that high valuation for such a small home could be driven by the half-acre of land. The buyer (or developer) would be someone wanting to demolish it and build something larger. I saw that in my NE Seattle neighborhood in the 1980s. Because of the location, little homes built long before were selling at high prices. They were demolished and replaced with multi-story ones that barely fit onto the lot.
@@Inkling777 There's undeveloped land still in town. This house is 1/4 mile from the school yard, 1/2 mile from a nationally recognized bike path. New construction is going for over 300k Price is driven by 1) it's vicinity and distance (25-351, about half of that agricultural land) miles to a midwest metro that is thriving and did pretty well during and after the covid shutdowns 2) The school system is consistently in the top ten in the state 3) crime is low, church attendance is high. There's even a boy scout troop in town still. Nice little town. In 4 years or so since retiring I've walked nearly 3,700 miles in town and not been molested or abused.
@@JohnJohnCrusher Medicare parts whatever, 200/month. car insurance two vehicles, 1400/year, home insurance, 700/year, internet, 50/month, electric and natural gas together, 160/month, real estate tax 2500/year, water, sewage, trash and yard waste 100/month. All insurance, all utilities, under a grand a month. Please, if you come here, don't destroy our peaceful towns.
Consumers must consume less as more of their resources must go towards covering the mortgage. What happens to a consumer driven economy when less consumption is taking place? When flagrant shoplifting becomes the norm?
The high numbers of homes being flipped compared to new homes is not alarming. Why? Well there are only so many new homes built each year, but the inventory of existing homes is huge. Some Midwest homes over 100 years old. Old homes are not like old cars. The land is still there, verses an old car that is crushed out of existence. Homes last, they just need a refresher to be put back into service, thus a lot of flipped homes.
I don’t know about the price to income ratio thing being a “check” right now. Yes it’s true that based on US standards, the ratio has gone up significantly, but what a lot of people don’t realize is that still even at the current level, the USA price to income ratio is one of the absolute LOWEST in the entire world, like last I checked we were third from the absolute bottom. Most people probably think we are at the top, but it’s the total opposite, so this tells me two things - 1. Is we probably still have room to grow when it comes to that ratio, meaning we can still go up a bit and be fine, and 2. If all these other countries can be so much higher on the list without it leading to a rapid decline in their housing prices, then why would the US be any different? Maybe because of a combination of factors, sure, but the point is it doesn’t seem to have the same impact on prices in other countries, so I’m skeptical that it would here too.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
‘’Marisa Breton Dollard’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
We're not witnessing an increase in price, and haven't been for a year. We ARE witnessing .01% of homes valued at above $600,000 still selling in indescribably small numbers. Why does that push numbers up on paper? Because the other 99.99% of homes under $600,000 have had multiple 10%+ price reductions and STILL aren't selling. You have to have a transaction for those homes to affect the median home price SOLD, and plain and simply, we're witnessing the lowest demand for homes in literally all of world history at these prices. In reality, the US housing market is down 20% year over year total in terms of price and in complete freefall until we find out what people are willing to pay for typical homes again. It'll likely be a year from now at 40+% down from 2023 prices and continue to fall, as we watch unemployment rocket past 15%. Can't ignore math, and ALL the math is worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude. Literally 45% worse than 2007 peak bubble.
The 3 points given by Shiller, I believe they are mis-ordered. The root cause of rapidly increasing prices and increased price to income ration is speculative buying. The demand caused by speculative buyers only causes more speculative buyers, which causes the prices to skyrocket, thereby increasing the price to income ratio to unattainable levels.
Yep, it always makes me laugh when people say 2007 was different because of ARMs and subprime loans. Those 2 things added artificial demand which created unaffordable homes, otherwise known as a bubble. The market crashed due to sheerly unaffordable homes relative to the median income. Those loans weren't HALF as bad as the 10 million loans from 2021-2023 where people with good credit financed a $350,000 home with 2% down while taking home only $65,000. What people don't see is that half of those people are going to lose their income entirely over the next year or 2, causing a race to low prices that make 2008 look like a warmup. Largest bubble in world history according to literally all the math. What should really scare people is that in 2007-2008, NONE of our other bills like insurance, groceries and utilities went up 50% simultaneously like they did this time, compounding the bubble and overall debt to income issue we see right now.
@@enthused7591 half of people will lose their income entirely? That seems like a bit of a stretch. But your point about all the other household bills going up at the same time is on point.
Except for inflation which is an unavoidable mathematical phenomenon. Just because that has worked for a while doesn't mean that will work forever. Eventually all that printing catches up to the economy.
@@derek4412 You have to read bud. I said there are 10 million bad loans from 2021-2023 and half of THOSE people will lose everything they own, making it a worse foreclosure crisis and crash than 2008, and it will be. It's purely math, and not a single piece of math points to the contrary.
One of the interesting facts about the housing market in the sunbelt is that many people are moving from other areas and not taking out loans. They are using equity in the homes they are selling to buy at the same price or less. These, of course, are the boomers. That said, I wonder if the price to income measure is really as valid in this type of market, which is unique.
Nothing since 2008 has changed and that's the way the industry likes it. They always win regardless of how many people lose because they've got hedged bets on basically every conceivable scenario. Everyday people? Not so much... Just because Miami is the NEW New York doesn't mean everyone should rush to buy in now.. I have a feeling this fall will see another real estate/economic shake down that will really hit the region like the video says... How could it not? I mean the pace on the treadmill is unsustainable now much less before you factor in the wall of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next quarter or two...
I’m surprised the Florida market hasn’t already crashed with the insurance crisis as bad as it is. But selling a house isn’t as easy and quick as selling stock. People hold onto inventory if they can’t get their price.
How do you get an accurate measure of flipping subtracted from normal home sales? And how do you subtract the effect of Airbnb and institutional investing from individuals and carve of the pie so you see the differences of the effects attribution?
I think as long as loans and mortgages are available people will buy 490k homes that were 290kin 2018 and trucks that are 105k that were 55k in 2018. We all know that everyone’s salaries have doubled too😂. In general people won’t hesitate to buy, absolutely no regard for price as long as debt is available.
I'm impressed with the professor taking into consideration the fact that people need homes for themselves and families. However, at the end of the day, the value of homes is determined by what they can be sold for, and NOTHING else. All we hear is that "no one can afford a home anymore". Obviously they can afford it, or prices would drop.
When the selling prices go down, how does this affect the community? We’re thinking of moving theThe Villages in the next few years. We’re in the northeast now. It’s not the highest sellers market as during COVID, but it;s above your “depression” line.
I wonder why he included Las Vegas instead of another southern city? I guess that Vegas could be an early indicator impacted by changes in the excessive spending that drives their economy.
If wages haven't increased, that means the bubble will burst to 2009 levels. When millions of people go from a $400,000 house to a $200,000 house, it's going to be Way worse than 2008! This sounds a lot like the way my great grandparents told me the great depression started.
I'm in the Chicago northwest suburbs. Idk what to do I missed out since 2020. I can still afford the massive payment but the payment is literally double as in 2020 and with 3x more down payment... Idk if I should wait or still buy seems like the longer I wait the higher it goes literally this sends me in a depression
I'm eagerly anticipating a potential housing crisis to make affordable purchases after selling some properties in 2025. I'm also thinking about investing in stocks as a backup plan. Any advice on the best timing for these investments? I've seen substantial trading profits, but there are worries about the market's instability and the possibility of a dead cat bounce. Can you explain why this market phenomenon happens?
You're not making mistakes; you just don't have the know-how to profit in a tough market. In such challenging times, only highly experienced individuals who went through the 2008 financial crisis can anticipate making significant profits.
Speculation with real estate is an alternative to speculation with stocks. Add to that the fact that taxes are lesser if you borrow money for homes bought for business purposes.
Mean of income divided by mean of housing price assumes both are symmetrical normal populations. for instanxe, if you were to hypothetically import millions of low income people would housing suddenly become overpriced because the ratio changes?
A housing depression? Nobody in the video ever mentions this or explains how we'll get to a "housing depression." You can't get the type of conditions in the housing market talked about in this video with the current state of ultra-low employment. We're also heading to a decrease in interest rates for the remainder of the year and all next year. At most what we'll see is a plateau in housing prices.
The title of this video cites “The line” on a map which will “Explain the coming housing depression.” But then we get nothing about any line in the video, only vague references to the south and Florida, along with some data about Miami. Please be careful with misrepresentative click bait titles.
You aren't taking on thing into account, the 6 trillion the gov. printed causing significant inflation. Home values didn't go up that much the value of the dollar went down significantly. At best with inflation taken into account home values increased by 20-30%. The M1 doubled since 2019.
With the advent of QE, all past indicators, i.e. bond yield inversion, etc. are now meaningless. $9 trillion of QE went to the mega rich and they are buying. Prices are now the new normal. When interest rates go down, there will too many buyers for the supply. High homes prices won't collapse.
I built a concrete structure (shed with stucco walls and concrete floor) for under $5k. Why can’t I just build my own house? Why can’t I just have some land? Foreigners have more promising bank accounts
@@mikethefenceguy You can! Go to any of the many countries that don’t have or enforce building code. Your problem is that you expect to get for free what others paid and continue to pay dearly for.
The problem with Schiller's predictions is that he predicts crashes years if not decades before they happen. It brings to mind the old expression, "even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
Real estate prices relative to M2 are actually down around 40% over the past 16 years or so. Crypto is about the only asset class that has elements which have risen faster than the growth in M2. How are declining prices relative to the total money supply a bubble?
Home prices being high depends greatly upon where you are buying. These is utter nonsense. I own condos in Florida. They are super cheap when you compare payment to rent. The inflation of Covid has not yet been fully felt in the market.
His analysis predates, institutional investment on individual houses so the price the income ratio Misses the Mark definitely need a broader framework to do justice You have to first and address the assumptions at time of original publications and figure out if anyone revisited incorrect assumptions in the present date
I'm going to be brutally honest here. All of this analysis done by experts that I hear shell out are flawed for one simple reason. They are ignoring the impact that institutional investors, hedge funds, boomers becoming rent lords in retirement, and flippers are having on the single-family detached home real estate market. Hat tip to MHFIN mentioning it at the end of the video, even if for a moment. Historically those people were not engaged at nearly the degree they are today. This is not a matter of simply 'build more homes', or 'lower insurance and interest rates'. Retail buyers, IE FAMILIES (the people we want in homes), cannot compete with those people, and it's destroying family formation, and the ability of younger generations to build wealth.
You can't have a housing crash when there are more buyers than sellers. Interest rates are dropping and within a year they will be back to where they were two years ago. Housing prices will continue to rise across America. Even in the toilet that is Austin, TX. price drops have stabilized and will soon be moving up.
Shiller doesn't want to influence the market and cause a panic as well. He is contradicting himself if you assess the whole interview. Regardless if he causes a panic or not, market dynamics will dictate the inevitable.
The potential housing downturn is definitely concerning, especially with the broader economic uncertainty. I'm focusing on defensive stocks and companies with strong balance sheets, but I’m also considering real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a way to benefit from market corrections. Diversification feels key right now.
I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.
Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q3 2024.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve my financial goals.
Her name is “CATERINA MARY CIARLANTE”. You can research her name to find the necessary details and set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I searched for her name and found her website. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before contacting her. Thanks again.
We are in a weird manipulated real estate bubble.
There are abandoned houses and working homeless people everywhere.
More wealthy individuals have vacant extra houses than homeless people in the USA at least. Everyone could be housed, but that simply isn't profitable to capitalists.
When houses became an “investment” it was only a matter of time before greedy people and companies started buying them up. I know 4 people who own multiple houses in my area and I can see why there is a “housing shortage”. That’s just 4 people i personally know here in my local area. Now imagine how many more people are doing the same thing.
Thats the thing people forget too. Yes it easy to blame big coprs like blackrock, but its still bad if half the houses are owned by provate landlords.
I’ve seen the same. Everyone and their brother wants to own 10 houses. There simply are not enough houses for that to be possible. Currently on the west coast a house can’t be rented for the mortgage cost without a 50% down payment and investors can find a lot better return on $250k elsewhere.
Homes only became a major investment because of ridiculous FED policy. Who wants a 10 year bond paying 0.55%? That's only $5,500 per year on a million dollars. Absurd. The longterm average for the 10 year is 5.84% or over $58,000 per year on 1M. The FED broke the bond market and investors found alternatives. Cheap money has consequences yet I heard little complaints from people as the FED hammered rates down to effectively zero.
Things people need will always become an investment, except for consumables.
Lenders in private hoas are not part of the “unavailable”. Market. The data is skewed. To keep prices high. A game
If you want an answer to "should I buy a home right now" The answer is always, "you should buy when you can afford to buy" That's it. That is the only answer that anyone can or should give you. No one can predict the future. if you are trying to time the market, you are just gambling with your future. Sometimes you will be right, sometimes you will be wrong. And the same goes with the question "should I sell my home right now". Again, you should sell when it makes sense for you. Schiller is right to not want to answer those questions. Because even the best minds in history, have no idea what the future holds. Yes housing prices will eventually come down. Yes there will eventually be a crash. And yes there will eventually be a bubble if there isn't already one. But the real issue and the only one that matters, is that NO ONE can tell you when. If I had a crystal ball and told you with 100% certainty that housing prices are going to crash 50% in 2027, you would automatically assume that you should wait to buy until then. But what if between now and 2027, housing prices went up 300%? They would be 50% higher in 2027, than they are right now, even with a 50% crash. For the love of God, stop trying to time the market.
Yeah. I was told that in 2006🤣. Unfortunately buying a house is no longer that simple as it might have been for you when you were young….Now we know you can lose your shirt. You SHOULD time the market. It’s a heavy investment not to do your due diligence. Buying at the peak is DUMB.
Eggactly! (However that logic makes for horribly short and few
YT videos….)
Did you forget your link to "my Real estate business"? A bit of an overly simplistic view I'd say. Housing to salary ratios are more important than if it continues to go up.
If you can't afford to buy your home now it's not going to get easier with maintenance, taxes and insurance going up.
@@resnonverba3351 - buying has always been about 3 things. FICO, savings and employment.....
Which part are you missing?
This is a bot comment. I've seen this exact comment on a dozen other videos.
Because all the major players were BAILED OUT in 2008...
No lesson was learned. It's worse now. 👈
💯
This! 💯
The US Banking system certainly DID NOT learn in 2008 and changed NOTHING.
After 2008 the European banking system changed drastically. In the UK, the banks stripped out their toxic assets.
The result was - 80% of loss making branches closed. No more cheques or money orders. Everything is done digitally or by a phone App.
What happens in Europe get transported across to the US.
The US banking Sector are going to experience WORSE pain than we did in 2008. You guys changed NOTHING.
Inflation
Of course it is…moofs got so gloriously wealthy from crashing the economy in 08, they just had to do again, this time with the ‘rona twist.
This Jam ain’t never stopping.
In 1966 my father bought his first home for $15,500. He earned $7,500 a year as an autobody repairman. Last year the house across the street which is smaller and on a narrow lot sold for $989,000.
So theoretically the person today would have to be making $500,000 a year to afford that house. But today unlike in the 60s there is a dual income Plus a lot of parents give their kids the down payment I think this is why the prices have gone through the roof
In 800 B.C. a simple rock farmer could buy a hut for two sticks, and the average salary for rock farming was like 4 sticks a DAY.
I did the inflation calculation, your father made the equivalent of $73k a year, and the house cost $151k. That’s an increase of 654%! I think my calculations are correct….
So he lived in California?
What area is this?
People do not need a 5,000 square foot house, we did it to ourself. Lets go back to houses that are 1500 square feet, we dont need 4 bathrooms, a living room and a den, a library and a study, 3 car garage, and that so necessary 20 by 30 bedroom. Look for a home that meets your needs not your wants. I live in a 1300 sq ft home. When I visit my friends homes I come home with a sense of saddness. At that moment I want a big shiny palace. But on the other hand,we have money, no debt of any kind. We retired at 52 and we have never looked back.
Roger that me and my wife did the same thing have nothing to prove to anyone and I really don't care what other people besides my wife thinks about anything your so on point
Amen. I know a multi millionaire who sold down to a 1200sf house. Now he just travels etc.
Time to tax homes by value, land used and sq footage.
Snap! 1300 square foot house, plenty big enough but not too big. Mortgage paid off, happy days.
@@talisikid1618 Tax square footage of homes not the acreage. That way farms. and ranches are not over taxed. Acreage does nit use resources such as public services. I own a small 55 goat farm in a remote area and pay five times in property taxes then the neighborhood does, totally unfair.
Now is a bad time to buy?
I sold 8 years ago waiting for the prices to go down, they didn't but interest rates did, I jumped back in 3 1/2 years ago with a 2.9% and my house has now doubled in value. I am glad I stopped listening to all the naysayers telling me to wait, wait, wait.
They want to price everyone out so their 2030 agenda of "You will own nothing and be happy" will come true.
Even if you have to purchase a smaller house in another area/region do yourself a favor and purchase something and make sure it is affordable for your budget.
Whose agenda? When's the last time you *bought* a CD or Blu-Ray? How about a software suite? It's already happening, and the corporations are pushing it.
@@throckwoddle It's just another dumbass conspiracy theory. Literally NO ONE is actually intending for people to "own nothing".
The problem with the housing market is that you just don't know how long its disassociation from reality can continue--look at Australia for example, the market has been totally removed from affordability for well over a decade.
Inflation
Bankers cause this to happen. Are they using their own capital or leveraging the daylights out of someone else’s money to nefarious effect?
The reality is that houses costs at this point are being limited by building costs in most places. I don't really see how, given the lack of housing inventory, we're going to see a serious price decline.
It's odd, I've only ever seen housing crisis in countries that have mass-immigration policies.
@@addmix Immigration is a factor, but not the central cause. The U.S. housing crisis at least is more due to zoning laws, economic inequalities and incentives, and our subsequent lack of affordable housing development, especially post 2008.
My friend lives in Los Angeles. She purchased her home in 2020, and since has spent $3.00 for a new light switch plate. That's the extent of her home improvements. Her home has increased over $600,000 in value since buying.
Or the “value” of the dollar has decreased (thanks to printing trillions more of them). Thank the Pandemic for this, largest transfer of wealth in human history.
Her house is only worth what she gets when she sells it.
@@RandomRabbit007yeah most of that isn’t “from printing money” that stopped over 3 years ago. This is companies saying you’re going to pay more because you’ll still believe that line of printing money and blame someone else
@@Jebbis go look at the M3 money supply on the official Fed website (you can just google it) and look at 2020 .... Now compare that to the last 60 YEARS!!!! You act like they didnt print an INSANE amount of money, we never even SPOKE about a TRILLION dollars before 2020. That number was considered RIDICULOUS. Printed 6-7 TRILLION dollars bro .... and Inflation has been astronomical and is still high today!! Sure companies are also profiting massively.
@@Jebbisthat is objectively wrong. How would a "company" determine how much someone would pay for another person's house? It takes years for newly printed money to make its way through the economy.
Tough* to make a prediction in a fake environment.
Imagine a boat, it can hold up to 10,000 gallons of water before it sinks. There's a hole leaking 500 gallons a minute into the hull, how long till it sinks? Hard to say, there's some Uncle Sam dude down there w/ a pump and he refuses to tell us the specs.
You forgot the shark and the battery!
20 minutes
No. More like 35 minutes. As the boat fills with water, the pressure difference is less and water ingress slows down.
A pump? I think he's down there with a drill trying to drill holes in the hull. To drain the water out.
😹😹😹Love the analogy!!! 😹💙🫶🏻✌🏻
I am currently in my 50s and This is no time to taper retirement savings. I want to max out my retirement contributions and I also have another $120k in a savings account that I want to invest in a non-retirement account. Where would you invest this as of now?
Look up, dividend aristocrats. Pick six to ten from that list. Those companies have a track record of 25+ years of paying dividends. Also, you should work with a financial advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
@@HopesKruses I agree. Based on personal experience working with a financial advisor, I currently have $800k in a well-diversified portfolìo that has experienced exponential growth from when I started. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
@@KarenDuncan-o5s Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My retirement portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
@@KarenDuncan-o5s I will give this a look, thanks a bunch for sharing.
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with these banks is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
In my opinion, some of the banks was attempting to restructure their bond portfolio, which involved selling their low-yielding bonds despite the potential loss, and compensating for it by buying higher-interest-rate bonds on the open market.
Despite the economy's resilience thus far, the banks scenario cautions that the effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes persist. During such periods, investors must remain alert to anticipate what comes next. It is not necessary to act on every prediction, so I recommend seeking the guidance of a financial advisor, which has been my go-to advice for some time now.
Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My retirement portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Vivian Jean Wilhelm” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
GM lays off over 1,000 salaried software, services employees today…
good
In the long run, it's better to be one of the first. They've got a few hundred thousand to go until the inevitable bankruptcy runs its course.
Hopefully the new dev team can make an infotainment system that doesn't crash.
cisco computer systems also... john deere...
depression 2008 v2, just peaked... the data doesnt lie
Home is a place to live not a stock. Forced divestment is required
💯
you still have to pay full price even ifit is worse half next week
I live in the Dallas, TX area. I bought a house in June 2019. It gained about 80% of its value, then lost about 15% of the new value, and now in the last few months it's risen back to almost the highest total value it has had.
Arizona inventory is up 55% over last year.
But how are prices
@@Distress.still greedy af
They’re still over valued but dropping. I’m a realtor, we have clients that bought in 2022 taking a loss to sell their properties
Not in Phoenix, unless you mean apartments.
@@shamrock5725 lol. You need to look at the data. Inventory is up 55% according to the arizona realtors (MLS). Investigate and see for yourself.
Nothing changed in terms of speculation from 2008. They just rebranded it. Imo, there is even more speculation this time. Especially with companies like Airbnb obfuscating the market and making money in arbitrage.
yup
Good point about Airbnb. I'm a teacher also with an MA from Yale, but I've chosen a life and career abroad as a freelance language teacher which in a nutshell pays little annually. So I'll never be able to buy into any housing market regardless of the conditions at that time. However, Airbnb and other apps have made even renting basic decent accomodation inland here in Spain or elsewhere very difficult, forgetting about the coasts.
Homeowners in tourist towns across Spain are raking in the dough.
@@jayclarke6671 it's like that all over Europe. Am from the Balkans, Croatia and many coastal countries have seen significant rise in prices where locals can't afford these prices.
@@AlenAbdula yes homeowners are renting places weekly even daily where they can bring in 2000+ a month for normal places at the beach, even up to 5-10K a month for luxurious homes. That's a lot of dough.
Bingo. Most financial youtubers got their start at or around the start of the pandemic, when every noob convinced themselves they're now an investing genius. They're about to learn a VERY hard lesson. This will be 45% worse than 2008 because simply ALL the math is 45% worse than the 2007 peak bubble.
Sounds like a skeptical outlook on things then. With the rate cuts do you think it's best for us who are not conservative investors to focus on bonds or dividend stocks? I want to reallocate my 7-figure portfolio and I preferably want the assets with the best ROI.
Bonds are a safer bet. They offer good stable yields. But dividend stocks could make you a fortune if you know how to go about it. But it's always a good idea to work with a CFA. It streamline your strategy and help profit a lot.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds…At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case 80% stock crash, Thanks to my CFA
Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?
My CFA ’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Been hearing about a housing crash since 2020 and even before and all those predictions were wrong. We need a depression to knock home prices back to 2019 levels.
Great point...
....second only to the preppers who have been promising mass chaos for over thirty years and nothing.
Supply is so low that there is no way it will crash. Expecting a crash is foolish. Everyone NEEDS a home to live in and Biden/Harris allowed 30,000,000 illegals to enter America too.
@@RandomRabbit007wonderful. What strong leaders
National debt is five times what it was in 2008. When do the GSEs get audited? Never.
@@RandomRabbit007BS
according to zillow, our house near raleigh, nc increased in "value" by 70% between jan '21 and jun '22 when nothing changed except the value of the dollar. yeah our networth looks healthier but our kids won't be able to afford anything worthwhile for a long time unless there's reversion to the mean/trend. gov't induced devaluation of currency should be criminal.
Interest rates need to rise. Purchasing power restored to purchasers, instead of stripped away by capitalist lending class who will see their assets rise in value with reduced rates. Rates must rise and September will see them cut here in the US. Awful times are enroute.
Housing prices are unlikely to significantly decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply. I'm considering purchasing affordable houses in 2024 and possibly venturing into stock investments. When is the best time to enter the stock market? Some people say it is profitable , but others say it's risky. Any advice?
Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Just remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.
Your best option if you don't know much about the market is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Though it may seem easy, hiring a consultant has helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January. I think it's currently the best way to get started in the field.
Do you know how many million existing homes exist in undesirable areas? The problems are in the cities where the good jobs are
In many places like Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Tampa, Orlando, etc., inventory is high, many websites showing that and many articles...facts!!
Overpriced real estate, out of balance Price/Earnings ratio, inverted yield curve, and the promise of widespread tariffs to come in January. The adage "don't try to time the markets" applies, but it's hard to see anything good on the horizon.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed that of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data going back to 2014.
Those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.
Inject trillions into the economy...buckle up.
Have you considered insurance availability in your assessment.
He lost me at "Janet Yellen I admire"
I think he had been drinking….
Yellen is the drunken grandmother who always has bad news
Saved me 10 mins ty
Your personal bias is your loss.
@@IrvineTruth Nothing personal just look at her policies and what she says.
Keep in mind that Irrational Exuberance was published several years ahead of the housing crash. All of his factors got much more out of whack before the crash. In reference to the stock market it has been said that the markets can remain irrational much longer than most people can remain solvent. Same applies to all markets.
The crash he predicted was caused by subprime mortgages given to people who should never have gotten a loan . Today that’s rare and nothing he says has any relevance to today’s market . Today it’s overinflated house prices with high interest rates in an inflated economy .Credit card debt is over a trillion dollars and it’s an election year so the economy is being propped up when it’s really in shambles ..There will be a sizable downturn after the election continuing till mid next year but we won’t see another crash like it happened before
I don't even think we'll have a sizable downtown. I doubt it'll be more than 1-2% for maybe 2-3 more years. The supply side is simply too tight. Building is ridiculously expensive, and there is so much money floating around out there. Plus with airbnb, there's a whole additional source of housing demand. If tech employment picks up (which it probably will within 2 years), we will be right on back to growth.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 It’s already happening in states like Florida and Texas ..The housing markets are way overvalued . Unemployment is rising and despite lower interest rates people are still not buying . There is record number of people backing out of contracts . I don’t believe it will be another crash like the big one of 08 because the next one coming won’t be caused by subprime loans , it will be cause by increasing personal debt and unemployment as companies downsize and layoff people . And the biggest elephant in the room is AI that’s going to put many people out of work and nobody is even looking at that .
From my vantage point in Southern California, the biggest problem with using the usual income to price ratio to measure the market is because "single family" homes just aren't single family anymore. I've lived in my current home for 16 years and in the beginning it really was single families. Now at best there are a few homes that have multiple generations of the same family, but most are multiple families in the same home. So the same prices - or higher - that were completely unsustainable in 2008 are now not only affordable but are even more secure because any one job loss is a much smaller percentage of the income used to pay for it.
Owning a home today isn’t as feasible or desirable as it once was, and for many, it's no longer the "American Dream." Job security has changed; companies rarely show long-term loyalty to employees, and people often change jobs frequently. Renting offers flexibility, if a new opportunity arises, I can move within weeks without the hassle of selling a home or worrying about fluctuating real estate markets.
For younger generations, homeownership is seen less as an investment and more as a liability. It comes with ongoing costs like property taxes, maintenance, and even the risk of eminent domain. Homes don’t truly increase in value; inflation erodes the dollar’s worth, which creates the illusion of price appreciation. In the end, homes are built with banks in mind, not people. The value lies in viewing a home as a temporary space, like a hospital, you get in, you get out, and you stay financially flexible.
A Yale professor might consider metro-Miami typical of the South but few who live in the South think that's true. Miami and Southern Florida in general are filled with retires from the NE. That inflates a housing market.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
Jennafer Beaver Turner is the licensed advisor I use.
Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
I just copied and pasted Jennafer’s whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
Wall Street should never have been allowed to buy up all the residential housing. Make them sell and things will go back to normal.
What folks have to do is break up the value of the house into the value of the land and value of the improvements (the latter of which is somewhat commensurate with the cost to do new construction, depending on the condition/age/ageOfRenovation of the house). From there it's mostly a simple analysis of how much would it cost to produce a homesite at a new subdivision at the farthest interstate exit, and determine if it's so far away relative to the house in question to justify the difference.
I look at markets that absolutely have no geographical impediment* to have those new subdivisions, but still have a high land-value component, and see red. The markets that this applies to are Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, Tampa, Orlando. These are places that had always had modest housing prices until recently, and which then exploded in value. (Denver has half of an impediment - the mountains! - but the East side is all open; Phoenix has the complication of running out of water, but why would anyone want to move to Phoenix if the housing prices are high?) The coastal cities are mainly hemmed in by the fact that someone looking for an inexpensive homesite would need to travel FAR to get into the central city (like Pike County, PA for NYC, or Modesto/Stockton for SF, or Lancaster/Victorville/Hemet for L.A., LOL), although once the jobs bubble bursts, those whole regions will deflate as folks take that attitude that if they are going to be unemployed, they might as well do so in cheap locale.
I would like Schilllers opinion regarding the effect of AirBnB and Institutional buyers on this housing market. The dynamics r now different than they were in 2008 as these two factors entered the market n took up the slack in inventory
Schiller opinions are always based on long term deviations from mean. He doesn’t have anything relevant to new tech or trends. He has/had an indicator for equities that has been comicly wrong for the four decades I have been investing because it completely neglects intelectual property.
AirB&B can be implicated and convicted of contributing to housing shortages in the nearly all the least affordable markets. Just count the local ST listings and compare to the local shortage. "Institutional buyers” are no intrinsic problem as long as they don’t remove housing or reach local monopoly size. There is a new monopoly problem that doesn’t require the risk of concentrated ownership -“Rent Optimization” software services. With AI tracking of everything people do online they can get the maximum rent. Politicians like to blame “Wall Street” because they are big and unpopular.
@@skyak4493 You bring up a point that is seldom mentioned when people look back on recessions. We have lighting fast communication. Chances are that news will spread quickly, a crash could take place and people can rebound faster than ever once good news starts to circulate.
Keep in mind...the world's most expensive cities are outside of the United states...so buying in the US is still a deal for foreigners parking money.
Can I say foreigners or is there some fancier word that I'm supposed to use these days? Peoples who don't live here full time.
@@Dancing_Alone_wRentals The way I see it, home prices are not over replacement cost. The vast majority of the problem is near urban centers, and new “affordable” homes are not profitable to build.
This only a “crisis” in political terms (in the US), and it is urban. The first and obvious thing to do is to tax/regulate things that raise price and take homes out of use -short term rentals, and any property held for investment or even not a primary residence. Tax/regulate these and use all proceeds to build only affordable housing in mass transit corridors.
@@skyak4493 I believe rentals are taxed at a higher rate everywhere. To me that would mean the taxes could be raised some but would it be worth it? The outcry of tenant groups would be harsh on politicians.
All fees, taxes, and fines are paid by the tenants....add to this loan service and we would be hurting tenants again.
The residential rental business is pretty hands on tough, I'm surprised that big investors are buying up rentals. When I research the numbers it turns out they really don't have many vs the mom & pops.
I wish tenants were better educated, I think their voting with their feet would help.
Interesting stuff. tHanks for your comments.
@@skyak4493 I do agree with some of your proposals, but how about building more housing? NIMBY-ism and overly strict zoning laws contribute greatly to the housing shortage especially in the coastal areas of the NE and West Coasts.
It's quite concerning to see the various challenges our economy is facing right now, from uncertainties to housing issues, bad weather conditions, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, all contributing to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions definitely require immediate attention from all sectors to bring back stability and promote growth. How do you think these issues can be effectively addressed?
It's a bit unsettling to see the US dollar losing value due to inflation while other currencies are gaining momentum, creating a sense of uncertainty. Despite this, there's still a level of trust in the perceived safety of the dollar. I understand your concern about your $420,000 retirement savings potentially losing value. Exploring alternative options for securing your money sounds like a wise move. Have you considered any specific alternatives or strategies to safeguard your retirement savings?
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Just research the name Jessica Lee Horst. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I'm grateful for your help. After looking up her name online and checking out her credentials, I must say, I'm really impressed. I reached out to her because I could really use all the help I can get. We've set up a call for further discussion.
Manhattan rents annd Mississippi wages.
I think everyone has heard about Case-Schiller and their economic mastery.
But I never heard Schiller talk, and he rambles on and on just like Buffet.
For a Yale Prof Schiller cannot get his ideas and message across very well.
Obviously he is on some spectrum, but a lecturer or educator he is most definitely NOT.
But he has created a nice graph.
The problem with predictions its hard to predict anything when the numbers are fake.
look at the areas with the huge price increases. They are not California. These huge increases in home prices are in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and other states. I live in California and our home prices have been stagnant for over 2 or 3 years.
It is the southern states where many have moved since 2008.
The huge crash will be in other places outside California.
You also have to look at population trends
BINGO …. The new “hype” places will either need to create high-paying jobs (a very difficult thing to do) or else there will need to be a major correction. California will be fine because we already have high paying jobs and we didnt over-build (actually we’re still massively under-built if anything). California prices are CHEAP right now believe it or not lol. Other states have had 15-20% gains the past 2 years while we have stayed basically flat but starting to grow now too. Watch what happens to SF prices in the coming years. Gonna be insane. ALWAYS look for the discount deals, NEVER the hype places.
@@TrevForPresidentCalifornia okly lost population between 2020-2022. By the end of 2023 the population is back to GAINING again lol. In total something like 600,000 people left (NET) …. That’s nothing when we have 40,000,000 and could INSTANTLY add more by lowering regulation on home-building (which we dont want). We wanna keep our state less dense and difficult to move to.
@@RandomRabbit007The population increases in California are mostly low wage migrants. People with money seem to be going to Texas.
@@jeffrobodine8579 I know some people that were low income/low education that went to Texas, I dont know anyone wealthy that left. I know VERY FEW people young that left, lots of older/elderly people left for an easier retirement. Young people wanting to make it BIG in their career are staying in Cali.
We built a 3 bedroom 2 bath house in a planned neighborhood with a large backyard. We knew HOA fees were coming within a year. The building and selling of houses has slowed down significantly. We sold our house in another state so we were able to pay cash. I wish the market was more stable for my oldest daughter who is married with preschool age children.
People are using Thier homes to pay the bills by taking the equity out. Once the credit shifts and can no longer be obtained this stops. 17trillion in debt in the residential housing market alone , a moratorium on refinancing in the commercial realestate sector have them until March of 2025 to get Thier 💩 together unless they choose to extend it forever March is it .
I bought a home in August 2007 in an Iowa exurb. $116k, taxed at $112k. Now taxed at $158k and judging by recent sales on this street could be sold between $180k and $205k.Yes, I've done some improvements and kept up with maintenance, but even with inflation I did not expect this. This home is 780 square feet, four rooms with a full basement, brick construction on a half acre.
Depending on your location, that high valuation for such a small home could be driven by the half-acre of land. The buyer (or developer) would be someone wanting to demolish it and build something larger. I saw that in my NE Seattle neighborhood in the 1980s. Because of the location, little homes built long before were selling at high prices. They were demolished and replaced with multi-story ones that barely fit onto the lot.
@@Inkling777 There's undeveloped land still in town. This house is 1/4 mile from the school yard, 1/2 mile from a nationally recognized bike path.
New construction is going for over 300k Price is driven by
1) it's vicinity and distance (25-351, about half of that agricultural land) miles to a midwest metro that is thriving and did pretty well during and after the covid shutdowns
2) The school system is consistently in the top ten in the state
3) crime is low, church attendance is high. There's even a boy scout troop in town still.
Nice little town. In 4 years or so since retiring I've walked nearly 3,700 miles in town and not been molested or abused.
Wow money goes far there.
@@JohnJohnCrusher Medicare parts whatever, 200/month. car insurance two vehicles, 1400/year, home insurance, 700/year, internet, 50/month, electric and natural gas together, 160/month, real estate tax 2500/year, water, sewage, trash and yard waste 100/month. All insurance, all utilities, under a grand a month. Please, if you come here, don't destroy our peaceful towns.
No one can afford a house and insurance companys can't afford to cover them. Whats coming will make 2008 look like a boom.
No one? That's clearly not true because there are houses selling and closing everyday.
@@Singlesix6 you say that so confidently!
Consumers must consume less as more of their resources must go towards covering the mortgage. What happens to a consumer driven economy when less consumption is taking place? When flagrant shoplifting becomes the norm?
@@skipstalforce65 percent of Americans are home owners. That’s the majority of people.
@Arginne my parents are "home owners" and still owe 100k on their house. You only own the home if you can continue to make minimum payments.
I think the crash already started in places like Austin and Phoenix.
The high numbers of homes being flipped compared to new homes is not alarming. Why? Well there are only so many new homes built each year, but the inventory of existing homes is huge. Some Midwest homes over 100 years old. Old homes are not like old cars. The land is still there, verses an old car that is crushed out of existence. Homes last, they just need a refresher to be put back into service, thus a lot of flipped homes.
I don’t know about the price to income ratio thing being a “check” right now. Yes it’s true that based on US standards, the ratio has gone up significantly, but what a lot of people don’t realize is that still even at the current level, the USA price to income ratio is one of the absolute LOWEST in the entire world, like last I checked we were third from the absolute bottom. Most people probably think we are at the top, but it’s the total opposite, so this tells me two things - 1. Is we probably still have room to grow when it comes to that ratio, meaning we can still go up a bit and be fine, and 2. If all these other countries can be so much higher on the list without it leading to a rapid decline in their housing prices, then why would the US be any different? Maybe because of a combination of factors, sure, but the point is it doesn’t seem to have the same impact on prices in other countries, so I’m skeptical that it would here too.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
‘’Marisa Breton Dollard’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Because he said "there are smart people at the FED & he admires Janet Yellin" nothing he says is worth listening tk!
Aaaand you KNOW better than a Yale Professor? RLY?? You should apply for the next position at Yale
@bricktop7803 As Thurston H. III recognized in disdain: "obviously, a Yale man "
@@bricktop7803Was inflation transitory? 🤣🤣🤣
" No one can predict the realesate market. " Waren Buffet
you can but not 10 years in advanced
On the chart at around 3:45 the title and label are wrong: According to the subtitle, it plots the value to wage ratio... not the wage to value ratio.
We're not witnessing an increase in price, and haven't been for a year. We ARE witnessing .01% of homes valued at above $600,000 still selling in indescribably small numbers. Why does that push numbers up on paper? Because the other 99.99% of homes under $600,000 have had multiple 10%+ price reductions and STILL aren't selling. You have to have a transaction for those homes to affect the median home price SOLD, and plain and simply, we're witnessing the lowest demand for homes in literally all of world history at these prices. In reality, the US housing market is down 20% year over year total in terms of price and in complete freefall until we find out what people are willing to pay for typical homes again. It'll likely be a year from now at 40+% down from 2023 prices and continue to fall, as we watch unemployment rocket past 15%. Can't ignore math, and ALL the math is worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude. Literally 45% worse than 2007 peak bubble.
My god did you just tell ChatGPT to write the most factually incorrect statement on the housing economy in the US? Your numbers are garbage😊
The 3 points given by Shiller, I believe they are mis-ordered. The root cause of rapidly increasing prices and increased price to income ration is speculative buying. The demand caused by speculative buyers only causes more speculative buyers, which causes the prices to skyrocket, thereby increasing the price to income ratio to unattainable levels.
I look forward to housing prices going down because then I can appeal my property tax assessment. My property taxes went up like 40% this year.
When housing prices go up, property taxes go up. Govt is incentivized to push for property inflation
All bubbles are delt with by printing trillions and lower the prime rate. Since we are in a bubble burst economic system this is always the cure.
Yep, it always makes me laugh when people say 2007 was different because of ARMs and subprime loans. Those 2 things added artificial demand which created unaffordable homes, otherwise known as a bubble. The market crashed due to sheerly unaffordable homes relative to the median income. Those loans weren't HALF as bad as the 10 million loans from 2021-2023 where people with good credit financed a $350,000 home with 2% down while taking home only $65,000. What people don't see is that half of those people are going to lose their income entirely over the next year or 2, causing a race to low prices that make 2008 look like a warmup. Largest bubble in world history according to literally all the math. What should really scare people is that in 2007-2008, NONE of our other bills like insurance, groceries and utilities went up 50% simultaneously like they did this time, compounding the bubble and overall debt to income issue we see right now.
@@enthused7591 half of people will lose their income entirely? That seems like a bit of a stretch. But your point about all the other household bills going up at the same time is on point.
Except for inflation which is an unavoidable mathematical phenomenon. Just because that has worked for a while doesn't mean that will work forever. Eventually all that printing catches up to the economy.
@@derek4412 You have to read bud. I said there are 10 million bad loans from 2021-2023 and half of THOSE people will lose everything they own, making it a worse foreclosure crisis and crash than 2008, and it will be. It's purely math, and not a single piece of math points to the contrary.
@@jonathantaylor6926 Printing can go on forever ,until we all need wheel barrels to carry 5 cents worth of cash.
One of the interesting facts about the housing market in the sunbelt is that many people are moving from other areas and not taking out loans. They are using equity in the homes they are selling to buy at the same price or less. These, of course, are the boomers.
That said, I wonder if the price to income measure is really as valid in this type of market, which is unique.
Nothing since 2008 has changed and that's the way the industry likes it. They always win regardless of how many people lose because they've got hedged bets on basically every conceivable scenario. Everyday people? Not so much... Just because Miami is the NEW New York doesn't mean everyone should rush to buy in now.. I have a feeling this fall will see another real estate/economic shake down that will really hit the region like the video says... How could it not? I mean the pace on the treadmill is unsustainable now much less before you factor in the wall of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next quarter or two...
Why is the S&P at 3977.53 @ 7:05
I’m surprised the Florida market hasn’t already crashed with the insurance crisis as bad as it is. But selling a house isn’t as easy and quick as selling stock. People hold onto inventory if they can’t get their price.
How do you get an accurate measure of flipping subtracted from normal home sales? And how do you subtract the effect of Airbnb and institutional investing from individuals and carve of the pie so you see the differences of the effects attribution?
Houses in Murfreesboro tn are going up about 15 percent the last 5 years! My home has jumped from $235,000 To around $525,000 since 2013!
I think as long as loans and mortgages are available people will buy 490k homes that were 290kin 2018 and trucks that are 105k that were 55k in 2018. We all know that everyone’s salaries have doubled too😂.
In general people won’t hesitate to buy, absolutely no regard for price as long as debt is available.
Last year our house in Dallas was worth 340,today we just accepted a offer for 255
What about land prices, is it a good time sell land?
How come there’s no information about MHFIN? Would be interesting to know about his education and his motivations
I'm impressed with the professor taking into consideration the fact that people need homes for themselves and families. However, at the end of the day, the value of homes is determined by what they can be sold for, and NOTHING else. All we hear is that "no one can afford a home anymore". Obviously they can afford it, or prices would drop.
When the selling prices go down, how does this affect the community? We’re thinking of moving theThe Villages in the next few years. We’re in the northeast now. It’s not the highest sellers market as during COVID, but it;s above your “depression” line.
The Villages? Better look into that
what do you think will happen to housing prices in Austin with Tesla space X and X moving in?
I wonder why he included Las Vegas instead of another southern city? I guess that Vegas could be an early indicator impacted by changes in the excessive spending that drives their economy.
If wages haven't increased, that means the bubble will burst to 2009 levels. When millions of people go from a $400,000 house to a $200,000 house, it's going to be Way worse than 2008! This sounds a lot like the way my great grandparents told me the great depression started.
I'm in the Chicago northwest suburbs. Idk what to do I missed out since 2020. I can still afford the massive payment but the payment is literally double as in 2020 and with 3x more down payment... Idk if I should wait or still buy seems like the longer I wait the higher it goes literally this sends me in a depression
Those people blabbing about stats are interrupting the stats on TH-cam. If you refuse to believe is then it’s your fault if you didn’t prepare.
Love your Channel❤
I'm eagerly anticipating a potential housing crisis to make affordable purchases after selling some properties in 2025. I'm also thinking about investing in stocks as a backup plan. Any advice on the best timing for these investments? I've seen substantial trading profits, but there are worries about the market's instability and the possibility of a dead cat bounce. Can you explain why this market phenomenon happens?
You're not making mistakes; you just don't have the know-how to profit in a tough market. In such challenging times, only highly experienced individuals who went through the 2008 financial crisis can anticipate making significant profits.
Speculation with real estate is an alternative to speculation with stocks.
Add to that the fact that taxes are lesser if you borrow money for homes bought for business purposes.
Hurricane alley? Uninsurable? Corruption in state and local governments?
Mean of income divided by mean of housing price assumes both are symmetrical normal populations. for instanxe, if you were to hypothetically import millions of low income people would housing suddenly become overpriced because the ratio changes?
A housing depression? Nobody in the video ever mentions this or explains how we'll get to a "housing depression." You can't get the type of conditions in the housing market talked about in this video with the current state of ultra-low employment. We're also heading to a decrease in interest rates for the remainder of the year and all next year. At most what we'll see is a plateau in housing prices.
The title of this video cites “The line” on a map which will “Explain the coming housing depression.” But then we get nothing about any line in the video, only vague references to the south and Florida, along with some data about Miami.
Please be careful with misrepresentative click bait titles.
Are housing inventories based on dollars (valuation of homes) or units?
It is the big investors dumping houses that will trigger the panic.
You aren't taking on thing into account, the 6 trillion the gov. printed causing significant inflation. Home values didn't go up that much the value of the dollar went down significantly. At best with inflation taken into account home values increased by 20-30%. The M1 doubled since 2019.
With the advent of QE, all past indicators, i.e. bond yield inversion, etc. are now meaningless. $9 trillion of QE went to the mega rich and they are buying. Prices are now the new normal. When interest rates go down, there will too many buyers for the supply. High homes prices won't collapse.
The rich will own all the houses, all the farms, all the stocks and bonds, all the governments.
You can never time the "top" unfortunately.
Shiller's book was written before Air BnB and more importantly.. before corporations began collecting residential real estate.
Doesn't matter. It's been impossible to purchase property in America for years and this will never change. It's all by design.
I built a concrete structure (shed with stucco walls and concrete floor) for under $5k. Why can’t I just build my own house? Why can’t I just have some land? Foreigners have more promising bank accounts
@@mikethefenceguy You can! Go to any of the many countries that don’t have or enforce building code. Your problem is that you expect to get for free what others paid and continue to pay dearly for.
It was very possible from 2012-2019
"Impossible" is a bold statement. Bought my first duplex as a 28 year old in 2018, bought a triplex in 2020 and then another duplex in 2022.
The problem with Schiller's predictions is that he predicts crashes years if not decades before they happen. It brings to mind the old expression, "even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
Shiller has successfully predicted 17 of the last 3 crashes
Based on the stock index prices in the Schiller interview, this is at least a couple of years old.
Real estate prices relative to M2 are actually down around 40% over the past 16 years or so. Crypto is about the only asset class that has elements which have risen faster than the growth in M2. How are declining prices relative to the total money supply a bubble?
As a non-home owner, I’m unconcerned. I’ll wait.
Home prices being high depends greatly upon where you are buying. These is utter nonsense. I own condos in Florida. They are super cheap when you compare payment to rent. The inflation of Covid has not yet been fully felt in the market.
His analysis predates, institutional investment on individual houses so the price the income ratio Misses the Mark definitely need a broader framework to do justice
You have to first and address the assumptions at time of original publications and figure out if anyone revisited incorrect assumptions in the present date
I'm going to be brutally honest here. All of this analysis done by experts that I hear shell out are flawed for one simple reason. They are ignoring the impact that institutional investors, hedge funds, boomers becoming rent lords in retirement, and flippers are having on the single-family detached home real estate market. Hat tip to MHFIN mentioning it at the end of the video, even if for a moment. Historically those people were not engaged at nearly the degree they are today. This is not a matter of simply 'build more homes', or 'lower insurance and interest rates'. Retail buyers, IE FAMILIES (the people we want in homes), cannot compete with those people, and it's destroying family formation, and the ability of younger generations to build wealth.
Why is greed and fraud so rampant, and why is it allowed by those that can stop it?
So is MHFIN thinking there WILL be a housing correction?!?
You can't have a housing crash when there are more buyers than sellers. Interest rates are dropping and within a year they will be back to where they were two years ago. Housing prices will continue to rise across America. Even in the toilet that is Austin, TX. price drops have stabilized and will soon be moving up.
Shiller doesn't want to influence the market and cause a panic as well. He is contradicting himself if you assess the whole interview. Regardless if he causes a panic or not, market dynamics will dictate the inevitable.