Correct, simplistic calculation is if you want to withdraw 10% and maintain capital, you need the inverse of the aggregate of the withdrawl rate and the inflation rate equalling your required growth rate, thus, say 13-14% in most cases.....which is a risk-rating that no one is likely to offer/accept, as a Monte Carlo analysis will giveth and take away and show examples of a -25% year destroying wealth. This is a fantastic presentation....the 1,000 simulation Monte Carlo is best analytical planning tool.
I know a lot of people that wanted to defer Social Security until the age of 67 and ended up dying well before that taking zero benefits. Working their entire life to receive nothing in return. 62 will be the magic number for me
@@drewyoung2102 Ha ha! Drew thinks he's a prophet and can see the future. Nobody knows what will happen to the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Crypto? Monitary banks can crush it if/when it threatens the dollar's hegemony. Think they can't? Well, Ray Dalio says they can and will...and he's a lot smarter than either of us. And which other country will replace the dollar? China? Not a chance as they approach demographic collapse and their population shrinks by 50% in the next 60 years. Plus, they can't make their currency convertible since they last time they did in 2018 $1T of capital LEFT China for the US and Canada in just 18 months. The rich in China want to get OUT. The Euro? Nope, not with their demographics. They will be lucky to keep the Euro alive. So...what's going to replace the US dollar? Please tell us O wise one.
@@drewyoung2102 If that's the case, even more reason to start taking it as soon as you can, before it runs out. Even so, I never hear anyone talk about how taking it at 62 vs 67 keeps your 401k/ira/savings ect. higher because you had 5 years of taking much less from them. Say your SS was 20k, that's 100k you didn't take from your retirement savings. That's easily 4K per year extra income from your 401k/ira plus the 100K principal that's left. Obviously if you just work the extra 5 years and take at 67 you'd have more, but that's kind of a no s____ situation.
One option for increasing your non-qualified bucket is to sell your home and buy something much cheaper, either by downsizing or moving to a cheaper area or both. You could get a sizable amount of cash back by doing this and live off of it for a few years without incurring income taxes. You could use this as an opportunity to do Roth conversions on your qualified bucket.
@@DavidEVogel Notice I used the word 'OR'. You can downsize and stay in your preferred city/town. If you can pull $80K out of your home equity, that might be enough to support you for two to three years. That might be long enough to get you to age 65 for Medicare coverage.
Assuming that they are 62 or older or will be & can qualitfy. (I think Troy mentioned that they were mortgage free)....Another idea is to do a HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (aka Reverse Mortgage). They should use the equity in their home and can continue living in it. This money is not taxed. On top of this they should consider getting an annuity which will provide income for life. Just my opinion.
@@voyagerprobe Yep a reverse mortgage works and should be part of a plan if youre light on non-deferred savings and dont plan on passing the home onto an heir, typically they give you access to about half of your equity - better if the house is paid off but they will pay it off for you, give you access to the money and you can set it up like a line of credit that expands as the house appreciates - assuming it appreciates.
Once I’m 60 I’ll hit the 1 million mark and plan to retire, however, I can’t imagine needing 70k-100k a year after that. Assuming my house is paid off I need about 30k-40k a year tops. Maybe my hobbies and goals are cheaper I don’t know.
Josh I’m over 60 and still working and have no mortgage for over 10 years. The Taxes and the Insurance on my newish home went up nearly 2,500 bucks last year over the previous year. Seems you never really get away from house expense! Pending on your age I’d plan on earning around $50,000. at minimum per year! If you’re near 50 but by your comment I guess you’re in your 30s? Good Luck on your Quest!
@@Islanddreams11 My wife and I are self Employed so we pay the freight on that cost! This year it runs $1,500. Per month! So I hope we make it Medicare before the dang rules are changed not in our favor. I do believe Retirement plans will be heavily taxed as well as a means test for Social Security! Meaning if you have in the Governments Opinion enough of your own money you won’t need theirs! I’m 60 plus so I may squeeze you but people in their low 50s and down I’m not to hopeful for them getting thru?🤷🏻♂️
I'm surprised that plan worked in 25% of the scenarios. Taking out enough to yield 100k for 10 years and only starting with 1 million seems crazy, especially considering the tax on that amount of money when most of it will need to be coming from a 401k.
Some great points in this video, even if the scenario does not remotely fit you. A bad market in the first years of retirement will kill your carefully drafted plans. So will a period of high inflation. A lot of people don't want to take the tax hit, so they put their money into tax deferred accounts. Yes, it does box you in. Finally, we really need to be able to get onto Medicare earlier. I have no desire to keep working past 60. None, even if I have to live very modestly. As long as I get to travel (and that can be done on the cheap if you're not picky).
There are reasonable options before you reach Medicare eligibility age. My wife and I are on ACA, and have affordable coverage, we’re in our mid fifties.
Not everyone is married going into retirement but it seems that all your case studies are of married couples. Also your case studies are of married couples wanting to retire early. We need to see more diverse case studies such as singles retiring at 67.
I have one million dollars when I retired, but i didn't need to dip into it. I basically left all of it untouched and lived off my pension and SS, which has been sufficient for the last 21 years and running . My beneficiaries should be happy.
My grandmother is 96 and still gardening, driving, water aerobics, and mowing... there are stats on if you have a centennial in your family you're something like 20x higher percentage to be a centennial yourself....so I'm planning on living until 100.
Growing up , whenever I heard someone was a millionaire, my eyebrows would peek curiosity, the pinnacle of success. Now it's 2021. 1 million dollars does not even seem like a lot of money. Given the way that inflation has really taken off, who knows what it will be worth 5 years from now, So personally I plan on working well past that benchmark.
$1M is a lot if you think about it. The median income after tax today in the US is $35k to $40k...it would take almost 25 years to make $1M...maybe 20-ish adjusting for inflation. But sadly many Americans will have to work pass their retirement.
@@kaym7704 Yep with the exception of people who take huge risk the majority will be spending 20-30 years to save 1 million cash. I really feel for those making less than 20K after taxes because I don't know how they will ever be able to retire.
You CAN buy insurance through ACA (Obamacare) even if you don't qualify for the subsidy. We live in Maryland and purchase medical and dental through the ACA Marketplace and pay under $1,000 per month for me and my wife. We don't qualify for a subsidy. So about 12K a year. Not cheap but not crazy.
Haha. Exactly. People often over analyze. My parents have a paid for home and ~$200K cash. Retired at 65. Live off $4K a month and happily in their early 70s. They sure don’t have $2M cash.
Just buy three rental properties ($300k each, single family homes in nice neighborhoods only) without a loan that are all in close proximity to your home, and have them managed by a property manager (10-15%/month fee). You should be able to make $1500-$2500 or more, per month in rents. Save as much of the rental income as you can for a few years to save up a fund to pay any future maintenance fees, or down time without a renter. You will have income for decades, your properties will appreciate in value, and rents will go up over time.
You obviously can’t do math, taxes on investments sold would be hundreds of thousands $ and renting isn’t easy, plus it doesn’t meet their goal of $100k a month
There has to be balance. A lot of these retirement gurus scare people into delaying retirement or avoiding any enjoyment out of life. I've known one or two folks who lived well into their 90s. I've known far more who didn't, but were scared to spend money and enjoy life because they worried about running out of money. They end up leaving a lot of money to their kids who have no problem spending it.
@@alansach8437 I think your main problem is to call them a "guru". It is some a-h***le with a laptop and a passord. Start from there when you talk to one of these fools.
The question is, can you live within those parameters you set or want to set. It's really that simple, regardless of how much money you have....or don't have.
Another idea would to take out a smaller amount from your qualified and adjust your lifestyle until 65 so you can still get a subsidy for Obamacare. That would mean entering into retirement with no debt and you should be able to do that. I personally don't live off $100K now and I'm 57 with over a million in my 401k with a paid off house. I can easily live off 50K.
That’s what I was thinking. 60k would be plenty. Can you live on 5K a month? A lot of the country lives on less. If you planned that well, the you may have house paid (or almost paid off). Biggest issue is always time. Fill it with stuff that makes you poor like going to casinos and shopping and you’re broke. Retire into a second life that keeps you just busy enough and you truly enjoy, and let the 60k subsidize your happiness.
@@adventurefuel5172 Absolutely!! I can live on less than that. I paid ioff my house years and ago and can basically adjust as far as what I need to live on. I have no debt and when I see what I will be getting at full retirement age from social security, I can live off that along, but I did make it to the millionaire mark in my 401k so luckily I won't have to. I'm 57 and still want to keep working.
@@stemikger You got it. Wouldn’t it be great to retire at 60 with enough passive income, then take a “fun job”. I’m hoping to sell my business in the next 3 years and move to Florida or Tennessee, and maybe teach archery or firearms training part time or something I love.
The problem with these scenarios is you are spending your capital. You should transition your capital into recurring income sources. Like instead of getting 100K per year out of your savings, take 200K to buy an investment property that you can make $30K per year on. Live off the $30K plus any other recurring income sources like social security or pension. The you still have the $200K in capital that will likely appreciate with inflation and housing increases. Any scenario where you spend your capital you run the risk of running out before you die. The important thing is to have recurring income sources, not just a big retirement account.
Planning to retire at 62, house paid off, zero debts, 1.3 m in IRA, cd's ladder 1-4 years. Would like to enjoy life while able to, will slowly quit my job from ft and slowly transition to part time, then by 62 complete retirement.
There is zero chance that given a million dollar principal and 100k withdrawals for 10 years you will have enough unless you are doing some risky investing when you can’t afford to.
they aren't withdrawing 100k per year, they are spending 100k per year. The scenario includes social security income which will bring that 100k down quite a bit. They are also only spending 100k for ten years, then it drops down to 75k, at which point social security will increase due to the cola adjustments.
travel as an older person can be very expensive, especially since they'll need extra comforts and conveniences. largely dependent on the locations too, of course. My retired parents went to Brazil and South Africa as trips, and they spent far far more than I'd ever imagined on each of them. mid 5 figures. remember these are older people having their last hurrahs, so they don't cheap out when they travel at all (presuming they have the money to begin with, of course). I nearly lost my mind when i found out how much their trips cost vs what they actually have saved, so I can imagine this kind of expenditure is much more common among older people who do have a million+ saved.
He reminds me of my boss - GET BACK TO WORK, YOU'RE NOT GOING ANYWHERE UNTIL 67!!!! Save yourself the half hour - in lieu of watching this video he basically says "You better work"
Great to hear. It’s where your heart and mind lives which is important not where you live and how big your house is. In your case you are clearly in the right place in your mind and heart. May God bless you always!
This is far by the best video on this subject that I have seen! Great job and great screen presence. I know first hand how hard these videos are to make. Bravo!
Investing in bonds is not a good idea since they yield less than the the cost of inflation -- thus they erode your principal. Better to invest in dividend-paying stocks in large companies in mature industries that pay dividends greater than the rate of inflation (e.g., utilities, energy, health care, medical real estate trusts, etc.). Since 1929 (including the great depression) the stock market has yielded about 11% growth average per year. The trick is to invest for the long term, collect the dividends (reinvesting some if able), and don't panic in market downturns. The market takes 2 steps forward and at times takes a step backwards. But overall, the trend line always rises.
@@robb7733 Eastern Europe, SE Asia, Central/South America. I've lived in Georgia, Bosnia, Serbia, Panama, Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia and never exceeded $2000 a month. Comfortable middle class lifestyle.
@@robb7733 Portugal is a frequent option; its tax structure is attractive for retirees and the cost of living is inexpensive, with a very high quality of life.
literally exactly what I'm planning to do, too. Starting in Thailand and looking at Viet, Philippines, Mexico and Costa Rica as future locales. Any standout locations on your list?
I like the bucket strategy. Of that 1 million having 3 years income in cash or equivalint will shield you from pulling out money on a down market. This will let one be still pretty aggressive in thier investing strategy. Another example could be they live off the taxable account the first 2 years/subbing a little from traditional, while doing roth conversions
Well I'm 53 and it would take me 30 years to make another million so considering I doubt I'll live past 80 with a million bucks today, darn right I would retire.
There are many, many ways to double your money over a long time frame. It shouldn't take more than a decade to double your initial investment, unless you're withdrawing too much per year to live off of... just sayin
If you’re only getting 5-6% on your investments you need to take another look at what index funds you can get because you should be averaging at least 10% but more like 12%. (10 after adjusted for inflation) And I would never recommend bonds because bonds hardly pay anything, the stock market has its ups and downs but if you’re that concerned on risk do good growth index funds 80% and 20% in dividend funds or real estate funds. I’ve averaged over 12% and don’t use any investment professional I just learned on my own.
Totally agree if you're in building years, but I'm not sure that makes sense in retirement. The swings could be detrimental. I'm just a guy on the internet so I'm no expert 😊
@@BlakeBake If you don’t have enough in retirement then that could be true but that’s why you should have more than you think you’ll need. The goal is to live off some of the interest the investments create. If you can live off 3-5% then you could never touch the principal and it should still grow another 5-7% on top of that giving you a bigger and bigger income every year which pretty much takes away the risk long term.
@@calebmelton5989 That’s not true, and I hope 7% is at least after inflation averages. 7% is low, a good mutual fund should gain at least 9-10% after inflation up to 12%. Biden’s inflation and terrible economic policies have changes this though in the short term at least.
Well of course you would rather have $1M with half in a ROTH account. That represents MUCH MORE savings when you committed it to the account; to the tune of 25% or more for every dollar you put in the ROTH account. Those aren't equal starting points for a comparison. The question is, "Would you prefer to have $1M in a 401K or about $750K in a ROTH?" The values would need to be adjusted to represent the actual person's tax brackets, but that then helps frame this as a fair starting point for a proper conparison. Not makeing that adjustment for the ROTH starting pioint penalty is disingenuous in my opinion.
100% agree! I hate that most financial planners hammer home the Roth but completely skip on the Roths marginal tax rate contributions while working with the effective tax rate while withdrawing from traditional. The odds are overwhelmingly high that your effective tax rate at retirement withdrawals will be lower if not significantly lower in retirement. It would take a much larger contribution every year to accumulate $1 million in a Roth especially if you are at or above the 22% marginal tax rate while working.
@@anonymousanonymous8932 Yes, exactly. It's even worse, though... There is also state taxes involved, so the ratios could be even higher than I mentioned... For example, if you currently work in a state with income tax, but you intend to move to a state without income tax after you retire, the ROTH may make absolutely no sense for you, even if you are in a lower tax bracket (for federal taxes) right now, because the state taxes will effectively negate the savings. I think this whole ROTH fund decision is being pushed by these financial advisors because it makes them money by consulting on all the conversions, etc. Not that it isn't beneficial to SOME people, but I think to most people it will not be beneficial.
Great tutorial. Obviously lots of moving parts to anyone's retirement plan and there is no one-size fits all plan. Troy does an excellent job walking us thru a few of the many what-if scenarios.
Troy, I really enjoyed this analysis. It made me understand the importance of building up that taxable account (and Roth IRA) accounts to better balance when/if I can retire early.
Your demo assumes a fixed spending goal of $100k through out and calculates the probability. In real life, people do adjust their budget in the down years in order to stretch the dollar. My question is: In order to maintain a X% of probability, how would their spending goal (the original $100k) fluctuates, given all considerations are the same as your demo. Thanks.
This is so ridiculous. Any guy savvy enough to save $1 M by 60 would know that he doesn’t need $100,000 a year to live in retirement and that nor can he afford to.
Depends on how U want to live. I retired at 42 with usd3.9million….it’s working out quite well and can have everything I would like…. I do have passive income too though. I am now 49 and comfortable. I just live within my means as I always have.
Hi Chloe, thanks for watching! There are always different possible outcomes for each scenario and this was just one of the ways we chose to talk about it. We always recommend having a financial planner regularly checking into your portfolio yearly so that you can readjust as life shifts and things change to continue to stay on track.
Golden rule: When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. This is 96% correct. About 4% of the time it will come up short and you’ll need to adjust. From the book The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life.
you can retire on 50k, folks, if you know what to do with it. it takes 2-3 years to get set up to do so,, but then you can do whatever you wish. Everyone cant do this, there's room only for a few thousand to do it my way, but anyone can be one of those few thousand.
Exactly. $100k/yr?! My annual expenses are $35000 and that’s with putting an extra $12000/yr in mortgage. So cutting out all “extras” my spending is $20k/yr. At retirement I know I’ll need to pay healthcare costs, so there’s that, but I would NEVER need to spend $100k/yr to live. Move to the Midwest where cost of living is cheap!
@@Michael-jc8nq Yes, but then you would have to live in the midwest... ugh. The armpit of America. I wouldn't suggest that to anyone unless they wanted that lifestyle. There's a reason those places are inexpensive to live.
not unless you know how to make a reliable 30% return on your investment. Youd have to risk it ALL. 30% return on a million is 300k per year, but you'd lose 120k to taxes and SS and 100k to inflation., the way things are in 2021. investing your entire next egg would be a stupid risk to take and nobody can offer you even 10%, much less 30%. What you CAN do, however, is use a vet's VA loan to buy a cheap, big old house, 20k or so, divide it into a dozen small rooms, rent them out ONLY to active duty, single military personnel, $150 a week each After you learn the ropes, start as many such boarding houses as needed for your income to be what you want it to be. This works only near big military bases, but you soon can have live in tenant managers in each place and you can live wherever you want.
No one lives to 90??? My father is 87-1/2, mother-in-law 91, father-in-law passed at 90, my mother, unfortunately, had a bad fall and passed just just shy of 84. All four would have benefitted by waiting to collect at 70. So, taking S.S. at 62 is a gamble too. I'm not taking S.S. until 70. It's no guarantee but, I watch what I eat, don't smoke, have one or two drinks/day, work out, and don't take any prescriptions. Should I be unfortunate, my wife can switch and claim mine. Think I'll care if I'm dead?!!! I know I'll be a lot happier at 70, collecting over $4k.
Can we pay a fee to either access the software you use in these videos, or can we pay a fee to have you run through the scenarios for us. I enjoy managing my own money ($2M portfolio and ages 49 and 46 for wife and I), but would love to run through some of these scenarios.
@@angelasoWA I'm retiring no later than 59 (10 years from now). My wife is retiring at 59 as well (13 years from now). Quick reasons... she'll be fully vested in her pension (govt. employee) in 13 years, so the guaranteed pension money will be nice. As well, she can provide medical benefits for us for a bit after I retire. I realize we'll have to go to the private market for medical benefits for a bit before we hit 65 (medicare), but such is life.
Not really. He glosses over the fact that you can NEVER have the same amount in a ROTH (or just in a savings account or other after-tax investment account) as you would in a tax-deferred account because most people start with a fixed amount available to save (assuming they both earn similar returns after that point). If you are able to save $20K a year from your paycheck (before taxes) and you put it into a 401K or similar, it starts off life in the account as $20K. If you take that same amount and put it into a ROTH, you first need to pay taxes on it. So instead of it being $20K, it might be more like $15K (unless you are really not earning much money, in which case, yo may not be able to put that much money away per year). So, when you retire, you might have $1M in a 401K account, but with the exact same amount of savings that producd that, you might only have about $750K in a ROTH. You can never have the same amount without increasing the savings committment for the after-tax approaches.
finally people are talking about capturing the obama care subsidy, This seems like a critical factor in the 60-65 yr period. A more indepth analysis of the AGI thresholds for pahse out of Obama care would be great. Also an explanation of how capital gains from non-qualified plans affect the AGI.. If you propose to keep a lot of money in non-qualified plans, you can still be hit by capital gains, say from mutual fund distributions.. makes the planning very complicated..
I learned from a fromer SSA employee and is considered masterful about the subject, even without your spouse activating his SS benefits, if he or she is 62 and above, the other spouse CAN start collecting spousal benefits if he os she files? Thank you for your reply.
What about people who retire earlier, maybe have thier own business or realestate rentals. People who retire at 35 or 40. I would like to see difrent scenarios married vs unmarried vs kids and no kids
Hey Troy, I’d rather have the problem of having say $2m-$3m in my retirement accounts than not having enough money to retire comfortable. With $3m and a spouse still working one could still probably retire at 58 or 59 an have no real financial issue here.
Leisure and vacation expenses in your 60's and 70's will be replaced by Unpredictable and escalating medical expenses in your late 80's and early 90's, it's not easy to set a figure each year going forward in retirement.
@@MrSuhas888 70 isn’t that old. My parents are approaching 80, healthy and traveling the world. Currently en-route to Portugal. Avoiding drugs, smoking and alcohol + exercise obviously makes a big difference.
There is a big difference if the couple rents or owns their own home and whether there is still a large mortgage. If they own there own home with no mortgage then spending 100k per year is really too lavish for most people. If they rent I would recommend buying a home even if they need to get a fixed rate mortgage. Downsizing is another issue but that could be a video topic my itself.
Hmm… very complex and brilliant- but couldn’t a simple person buy real estate 100% (if you like Dave Ramsey) or 50% LTV (2 million, 1 million down) if you’re more active. At 5% cap rate the minimum would be 50,000 (likely near zero net taxable). Or real estate averse people could buy the S & P 500 and live on the dividends (ok, they might need to spend less or work a few more years given current dividends). But, the power is worth it. How many Monte Carlo simulations do you need to calculate the probability of money lasting if the following conditions are met? 1. Buy the S&P 500 2. Spend dividends only 3. Never sell principal I got 99.99% (maybe a communist take over eliminates all of the public companies in the US?) Why not train people to build passive income and NOT spend it down? So much simpler. 6th grade math is sufficient.
I have my mortgage paid off (12 years ago) and am less than one year from retirement. I will receive a pension and social security as well as wife's 401K and social security. I need to know how aggressive I should be with my 401K stock/bond ratio given the other sources of income. Am planning to split 50/50 Vanguard Wellesley/Wellington. Not aggressive enough? Too aggressive?
You have got a good system setup. But one assumption is the kind of statistic distribution you use for the market performance, that’s a big what if. I’m approaching retirement and would like to run some scenarios
It is hard because of unknown variables. The American economy is a Ponzi scheme based on ever increasing government deficit spending. If the spending slows, you have to taper down GDP, profits, and stock market returns. When interest rates go up, the bond portion will take an exponential negative hit in market value. Also, you need to subtract fees from estimated annual income from investments. A 6% return minus 2% fees, means only a 4% gain. Fees are how brokers and pension fund managers become billionaires.
Hi Elisa, thanks for your question! It's tough to answer this in a comment, but we've added this topic to our content idea list for Troy so keep an eye out!
I like a more realistic scenario like this: obviously with only a million saved a couple can't retire early and take out 100 grand a year. On the other hand times have changed, a 60/40 portfolio doesn't make sense anymore. Even some commodities don't make sense, look what happened to Gold since Crypto have played such a large roll in investments. Gold has done nothing during the last 8 or 9 months.
I'd think about adjusting that life expectancy out to 140 or so, also upon NESARA et al... financial worries will become something that's only read about in the past. Financial advice and services are really kind of silly at this point as well. So for everyone out there laughing, just remember that you were told early. The "proof" is practically everywhere at this point.
Maybe a bit unpopular comment 😅 feel it is super hard to follow along. What is showing on the big screen is not very clear. Only the graph section is actually visible. Second half of the lecture is much better. It is wise words, but very wordy explanations, so end up being lost. Especially the explanation of social security at 62. I think current is good for like a live course where you can ask questions live. But think for TH-cam it could be cut down to much more digestible content.
Of course you can live on $100K and year for 10 years and $75K a year there after. If you have near full social security each (so over $70K right there), and/or one of you has a pension... But you most definitely can't take that much out of your $1M retirement savings account. Not even close.
Have to ask what diseases were killing people 5 years ago and not today? He needs to find cheaper hobbies and be debt free before retiring. The rest isn’t that hard to figure out.
I get why you don't like using an Average Rate of Return when projecting forward, but why do you use an Average Rate for inflation every year? Just like returns, inflation can fluctuate. Plus, just like technology is allowing us to live longer, technology is also reducing costs, so there are many items that are getting cheaper every year. Also, doesn't Social Security have a cost of living adjustment every year?
Monte Carlo inflation, excellent suggeation Eric. The interesting thing here is many central banks around the world have two deliverables within their charter 1 maintain underlying inflation within the 2-3% band 2 maintain full employment little known to most is the monetary policy settings DRIVE THE EMPLOYMENT, not the inflation; the inflation is a lagging indicator of full employment Thus, whilst I also support variable inflation analysis, central policy (nowadays) has far superior visibility and power to maintain within the 2-3% band. However, sensitivity analysis would be better to model at 3%, rather than 2.25%, then also at 3.5%, to see affect of a 0.5% rise. GREAT FEEDBACK Eric, 100% correct.
Thank you for the information. I am age 62. I enjoy my work. But looking at retirement to be between 67 and 70. My wife (age 61) and I have a portfolio bouncing with the stock market just under $1 million. IRA. 130. ROTH 35, 401K 760 target fund.. Inherited IRA 85. What is a general suggestion for a distribution retirement portfolio?
My Dad lived to 97, and all his financial planners used 90 as his life expectancy. This caused big problems for us, and it never should have happened. His advisors let him down bigtime.
Perhaps it's because I live withing my income but how the H E double hockey sticks could someone not live off $100k/yr at age 60? At what level of debt would one need to reach at life to have bills that large at that age. Granted I'm 43 and will have no mortgage by age 46 but holy moly my wife and I can manage on $120k combined a year with a mortgage, while saving for retirement and paying off our mortgage 8 years early.
The only thing that I'm surprised about that smart people here really think 1 million dollars will be worth more than a 'grocery cart worth' in a few years.
As long as the million is invested in an way that keeps up with inflation, it really doesn’t matter what a grocery cart worth is, because you will have more than a million. The issue isn’t a million, it is the fact that at 5% growth the should only be drawing out 25k if they expect it to keep up with inflation and not draw it down 5-2.5=2.5. In fact it’s hard to believe they are planning on 100k a year expenses unless they are in debt or have a high cost of living, in which case they probably haven’t saved enough to retire at 60.
If you can figure a way to make enough money with that money. Problem is that safe investments don't generally pay much. And in retirement you need safe investments.
I'm 62 and last week I went over to my parents house and found my dad doing push ups in the living room.
And you joined him?
dementia???
Jack Lallaine?
Great question. Short answer is NO. Taking 10% PA is not sustainable. You’ll have far less left after these grifters gouge you for their fees.
Correct, simplistic calculation is if you want to withdraw 10% and maintain capital, you need the inverse of the aggregate of the withdrawl rate and the inflation rate equalling your required growth rate, thus, say 13-14% in most cases.....which is a risk-rating that no one is likely to offer/accept, as a Monte Carlo analysis will giveth and take away and show examples of a -25% year destroying wealth.
This is a fantastic presentation....the 1,000 simulation Monte Carlo is best analytical planning tool.
I disagree. Look into high dividend CEF's.
@@tyronejackson2235 way too risky
@@calebmelton5989 Hopefully they have bottomed. I learned the hard way.
@@tyronejackson2235 thanks, I would like to learn more. Can you recommend how to start. MJ
I know a lot of people that wanted to defer Social Security until the age of 67 and ended up dying well before that taking zero benefits. Working their entire life to receive nothing in return. 62 will be the magic number for me
I gave up at 45, this way if I die at 75 I still had 30 years without work. life is short
@@drewyoung2102 Ha ha! Drew thinks he's a prophet and can see the future. Nobody knows what will happen to the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Crypto? Monitary banks can crush it if/when it threatens the dollar's hegemony. Think they can't? Well, Ray Dalio says they can and will...and he's a lot smarter than either of us.
And which other country will replace the dollar? China? Not a chance as they approach demographic collapse and their population shrinks by 50% in the next 60 years. Plus, they can't make their currency convertible since they last time they did in 2018 $1T of capital LEFT China for the US and Canada in just 18 months. The rich in China want to get OUT. The Euro? Nope, not with their demographics. They will be lucky to keep the Euro alive.
So...what's going to replace the US dollar? Please tell us O wise one.
@@drewyoung2102 If that's the case, even more reason to start taking it as soon as you can, before it runs out. Even so, I never hear anyone talk about how taking it at 62 vs 67 keeps your 401k/ira/savings ect. higher because you had 5 years of taking much less from them. Say your SS was 20k, that's 100k you didn't take from your retirement savings. That's easily 4K per year extra income from your 401k/ira plus the 100K principal that's left. Obviously if you just work the extra 5 years and take at 67 you'd have more, but that's kind of a no s____ situation.
I'm not waiting past 62.
They don’t care. They are dead.
One option for increasing your non-qualified bucket is to sell your home and buy something much cheaper, either by downsizing or moving to a cheaper area or both. You could get a sizable amount of cash back by doing this and live off of it for a few years without incurring income taxes. You could use this as an opportunity to do Roth conversions on your qualified bucket.
Sell your house and move to East Jockstrap, Mississippi to save money. Good plan.
@@DavidEVogel Notice I used the word 'OR'. You can downsize and stay in your preferred city/town. If you can pull $80K out of your home equity, that might be enough to support you for two to three years. That might be long enough to get you to age 65 for Medicare coverage.
Assuming that they are 62 or older or will be & can qualitfy. (I think Troy mentioned that they were mortgage free)....Another idea is to do a HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (aka Reverse Mortgage). They should use the equity in their home and can continue living in it. This money is not taxed. On top of this they should consider getting an annuity which will provide income for life. Just my opinion.
@@voyagerprobe Yep a reverse mortgage works and should be part of a plan if youre light on non-deferred savings and dont plan on passing the home onto an heir, typically they give you access to about half of your equity - better if the house is paid off but they will pay it off for you, give you access to the money and you can set it up like a line of credit that expands as the house appreciates - assuming it appreciates.
Once I’m 60 I’ll hit the 1 million mark and plan to retire, however, I can’t imagine needing 70k-100k a year after that. Assuming my house is paid off I need about 30k-40k a year tops.
Maybe my hobbies and goals are cheaper I don’t know.
I agree good lord wth are they buying worth 100k a year with no debt
Josh I’m over 60 and still working and have no mortgage for over 10 years. The Taxes and the Insurance on my newish home went up nearly 2,500 bucks last year over the previous year. Seems you never really get away from house expense! Pending on your age I’d plan on earning around $50,000. at minimum per year! If you’re near 50 but by your comment I guess you’re in your 30s? Good Luck on your Quest!
How much is your healthcare budget?
@@Islanddreams11 personally my wife works, and plans to retire from her government job. In turn giving us a great healthcare rate.
@@Islanddreams11 My wife and I are self Employed so we pay the freight on that cost!
This year it runs $1,500. Per month! So I hope we make it Medicare before the dang rules are changed not in our favor. I do believe Retirement plans will be heavily taxed as well as a means test for Social Security! Meaning if you have in the Governments Opinion enough of your own money you won’t need theirs! I’m 60 plus so I may squeeze you but people in their low 50s and down I’m not to hopeful for them getting thru?🤷🏻♂️
I'm surprised that plan worked in 25% of the scenarios. Taking out enough to yield 100k for 10 years and only starting with 1 million seems crazy, especially considering the tax on that amount of money when most of it will need to be coming from a 401k.
Short answer: NO to the scenario that was used for the attention getter.
Some great points in this video, even if the scenario does not remotely fit you. A bad market in the first years of retirement will kill your carefully drafted plans. So will a period of high inflation. A lot of people don't want to take the tax hit, so they put their money into tax deferred accounts. Yes, it does box you in. Finally, we really need to be able to get onto Medicare earlier. I have no desire to keep working past 60. None, even if I have to live very modestly. As long as I get to travel (and that can be done on the cheap if you're not picky).
There are reasonable options before you reach Medicare eligibility age. My wife and I are on ACA, and have affordable coverage, we’re in our mid fifties.
Not everyone is married going into retirement but it seems that all your case studies are of married couples. Also your case studies are of married couples wanting to retire early. We need to see more diverse case studies such as singles retiring at 67.
Would also like to see a non-married scenario!
Amen ! Yep 65, 67, and 70 for some people!
How about 60 and 62, unmarried?
Me too!!
67 is old, so you can live on anything.
I have one million dollars when I retired, but i didn't need to dip into it. I basically left all of it untouched and lived off my pension and SS, which has been sufficient for the last 21 years and running . My beneficiaries should be happy.
Want to adopt me? lol. Either way, you did a good job saving and should be proud.
My grandmother is 96 and still gardening, driving, water aerobics, and mowing... there are stats on if you have a centennial in your family you're something like 20x higher percentage to be a centennial yourself....so I'm planning on living until 100.
Growing up , whenever I heard someone was a millionaire, my eyebrows would peek curiosity, the pinnacle of success. Now it's 2021. 1 million dollars does not even seem like a lot of money. Given the way that inflation has really taken off, who knows what it will be worth 5 years from now, So personally I plan on working well past that benchmark.
$1M is a lot if you think about it. The median income after tax today in the US is $35k to $40k...it would take almost 25 years to make $1M...maybe 20-ish adjusting for inflation. But sadly many Americans will have to work pass their retirement.
Pique your curiosity.
I worked past 1 million too, to be safe. My investments are earning far more than I ever made while I was working.
@@kaym7704 Yep with the exception of people who take huge risk the majority will be spending 20-30 years to save 1 million cash. I really feel for those making less than 20K after taxes because I don't know how they will ever be able to retire.
@@donaldlyons17 who are these people please 20 K after taxes is someone not trying or entry level.
You CAN buy insurance through ACA (Obamacare) even if you don't qualify for the subsidy. We live in Maryland and purchase medical and dental through the ACA Marketplace and pay under $1,000 per month for me and my wife. We don't qualify for a subsidy. So about 12K a year. Not cheap but not crazy.
I'm 71 retired don't need anything like that amount .I'm enjoying retirement.
Everyone is different
How much money does one need.At retirement age should me more worried about your golf swing.
I have a million dollars at age 60. I think I'll go on TH-cam to figure out how to spend it in retirement.
Haha. Exactly. People often over analyze. My parents have a paid for home and ~$200K cash. Retired at 65. Live off $4K a month and happily in their early 70s. They sure don’t have $2M cash.
@@jml9550 Do your parents have pension income. That can make a big difference. Many people coming up to retirement don’t.
Lol. That’s funny. It may be a hit
@@daveh6402 nope. No pension income, but 2 rental properties, all paid off. Bought it 25 years ago at dirt cheap price.
Do what you want. I DONT CARE. Just stay out of my stash.
.
Find a country where the government doesnt draft policies for insurance and pharmaceutical companies. Basically, anywhere but the USA.
Just buy three rental properties ($300k each, single family homes in nice neighborhoods only) without a loan that are all in close proximity to your home, and have them managed by a property manager (10-15%/month fee). You should be able to make $1500-$2500 or more, per month in rents. Save as much of the rental income as you can for a few years to save up a fund to pay any future maintenance fees, or down time without a renter. You will have income for decades, your properties will appreciate in value, and rents will go up over time.
You obviously can’t do math, taxes on investments sold would be hundreds of thousands $ and renting isn’t easy, plus it doesn’t meet their goal of $100k a month
Why is it that I feel like a hand is reaching for my wallet while I am watching this vid...
My parents were outliers. My father lived to age 95, and my mother will be 96 this year. While this is not the norm, plan for it just in case.
There has to be balance. A lot of these retirement gurus scare people into delaying retirement or avoiding any enjoyment out of life. I've known one or two folks who lived well into their 90s. I've known far more who didn't, but were scared to spend money and enjoy life because they worried about running out of money. They end up leaving a lot of money to their kids who have no problem spending it.
@@alansach8437 Agree.
@@alansach8437 I think your main problem is to call them a "guru". It is some a-h***le with a laptop and a passord. Start from there when you talk to one of these fools.
The question is, can you live within those parameters you set or want to set. It's really that simple, regardless of how much money you have....or don't have.
Thanks there, captain obvious.
@@thomasallen6980 I'm Captain Obvious if you are Captain Doofus!
Another idea would to take out a smaller amount from your qualified and adjust your lifestyle until 65 so you can still get a subsidy for Obamacare. That would mean entering into retirement with no debt and you should be able to do that. I personally don't live off $100K now and I'm 57 with over a million in my 401k with a paid off house. I can easily live off 50K.
That’s what I was thinking. 60k would be plenty. Can you live on 5K a month? A lot of the country lives on less. If you planned that well, the you may have house paid (or almost paid off). Biggest issue is always time. Fill it with stuff that makes you poor like going to casinos and shopping and you’re broke. Retire into a second life that keeps you just busy enough and you truly enjoy, and let the 60k subsidize your happiness.
@@adventurefuel5172 Absolutely!! I can live on less than that. I paid ioff my house years and ago and can basically adjust as far as what I need to live on. I have no debt and when I see what I will be getting at full retirement age from social security, I can live off that along, but I did make it to the millionaire mark in my 401k so luckily I won't have to. I'm 57 and still want to keep working.
@@stemikger You got it. Wouldn’t it be great to retire at 60 with enough passive income, then take a “fun job”. I’m hoping to sell my business in the next 3 years and move to Florida or Tennessee, and maybe teach archery or firearms training part time or something I love.
@@stemikger Your Monte Carlo score will be very high. Congrats!
@@stemikger , good for you. I am thinking we should be able to live happily at 50K that is the median salary for US.
I would add that fees erode purchasing power over time as well....
The problem with these scenarios is you are spending your capital. You should transition your capital into recurring income sources. Like instead of getting 100K per year out of your savings, take 200K to buy an investment property that you can make $30K per year on. Live off the $30K plus any other recurring income sources like social security or pension. The you still have the $200K in capital that will likely appreciate with inflation and housing increases. Any scenario where you spend your capital you run the risk of running out before you die. The important thing is to have recurring income sources, not just a big retirement account.
Planning to retire at 62, house paid off, zero debts, 1.3 m in IRA, cd's ladder 1-4 years. Would like to enjoy life while able to, will slowly quit my job from ft and slowly transition to part time, then by 62 complete retirement.
There is zero chance that given a million dollar principal and 100k withdrawals for 10 years you will have enough unless you are doing some risky investing when you can’t afford to.
they aren't withdrawing 100k per year, they are spending 100k per year. The scenario includes social security income which will bring that 100k down quite a bit. They are also only spending 100k for ten years, then it drops down to 75k, at which point social security will increase due to the cola adjustments.
If you need 100,000 a year your not retired or your sportfishing everyday. Everything should be paid off when you retire.
travel as an older person can be very expensive, especially since they'll need extra comforts and conveniences. largely dependent on the locations too, of course. My retired parents went to Brazil and South Africa as trips, and they spent far far more than I'd ever imagined on each of them. mid 5 figures. remember these are older people having their last hurrahs, so they don't cheap out when they travel at all (presuming they have the money to begin with, of course).
I nearly lost my mind when i found out how much their trips cost vs what they actually have saved, so I can imagine this kind of expenditure is much more common among older people who do have a million+ saved.
He reminds me of my boss - GET BACK TO WORK, YOU'RE NOT GOING ANYWHERE UNTIL 67!!!! Save yourself the half hour - in lieu of watching this video he basically says "You better work"
Assuming your house is paid off and you have no other debt and don’t live an extravagant lifestyle, who needs to live off 100k per year?
Haha people who this guy targets to HELP lmao. I mean bleed.
Is this for real a million dollars good lord if I have 30k/yr for retirement I'll be happy and I'm 63 work at a job that pays 17/hr. Lifes great
Entirely depends where you live. Notth East property taxes above 15k aren't uncommon
Great to hear. It’s where your heart and mind lives which is important not where you live and how big your house is. In your case you are clearly in the right place in your mind and heart. May God bless you always!
@@bryanreilly4117 Funny that's where I live. it's so incredibly beautiful here I couldn't leave the Atlantic ocean is home
@@bryanreilly4117 Time to move...not paying $1,200 property tax per month.
This is far by the best video on this subject that I have seen! Great job and great screen presence. I know first hand how hard these videos are to make. Bravo!
Investing in bonds is not a good idea since they yield less than the the cost of inflation -- thus they erode your principal. Better to invest in dividend-paying stocks in large companies in mature industries that pay dividends greater than the rate of inflation (e.g., utilities, energy, health care, medical real estate trusts, etc.). Since 1929 (including the great depression) the stock market has yielded about 11% growth average per year. The trick is to invest for the long term, collect the dividends (reinvesting some if able), and don't panic in market downturns. The market takes 2 steps forward and at times takes a step backwards. But overall, the trend line always rises.
Jane plans to party big time after Tim departs. LOL. Cruise lines, spas, exotic locations, etc. Tim looks at the screen and calls the divorce lawyer.
Too Funny 🤣
Yes - Jane’s second husband is going to LOVE Tim’s a$$…….😂
The divorce will cost more!
@@ddellwo Funny. Poor Tim worked his ass off for years and scraped and saved and ate baked bean sandwiches to save for retirement.
It's foolish to plan retirement in the US/Western Europe/Australia. Spend your golden years where you are treated best!
And where is that? I'm totally game to go.
@@robb7733 Eastern Europe, SE Asia, Central/South America. I've lived in Georgia, Bosnia, Serbia, Panama, Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia and never exceeded $2000 a month. Comfortable middle class lifestyle.
Excellent. Thank you! I’m starting my research as 62 nears:)
@@robb7733 Portugal is a frequent option; its tax structure is attractive for retirees and the cost of living is inexpensive, with a very high quality of life.
literally exactly what I'm planning to do, too. Starting in Thailand and looking at Viet, Philippines, Mexico and Costa Rica as future locales. Any standout locations on your list?
I like the bucket strategy. Of that 1 million having 3 years income in cash or equivalint will shield you from pulling out money on a down market. This will let one be still pretty aggressive in thier investing strategy. Another example could be they live off the taxable account the first 2 years/subbing a little from traditional, while doing roth conversions
Well I'm 53 and it would take me 30 years to make another million so considering I doubt I'll live past 80 with a million bucks today, darn right I would retire.
There are many, many ways to double your money over a long time frame. It shouldn't take more than a decade to double your initial investment, unless you're withdrawing too much per year to live off of... just sayin
If you’re only getting 5-6% on your investments you need to take another look at what index funds you can get because you should be averaging at least 10% but more like 12%. (10 after adjusted for inflation) And I would never recommend bonds because bonds hardly pay anything, the stock market has its ups and downs but if you’re that concerned on risk do good growth index funds 80% and 20% in dividend funds or real estate funds. I’ve averaged over 12% and don’t use any investment professional I just learned on my own.
Totally agree if you're in building years, but I'm not sure that makes sense in retirement. The swings could be detrimental. I'm just a guy on the internet so I'm no expert 😊
@@BlakeBake If you don’t have enough in retirement then that could be true but that’s why you should have more than you think you’ll need. The goal is to live off some of the interest the investments create. If you can live off 3-5% then you could never touch the principal and it should still grow another 5-7% on top of that giving you a bigger and bigger income every year which pretty much takes away the risk long term.
7 percent. Anything g higher is either too risky or expensive like that crap Dave ramsey pedals.
@@calebmelton5989 That’s not true, and I hope 7% is at least after inflation averages. 7% is low, a good mutual fund should gain at least 9-10% after inflation up to 12%. Biden’s inflation and terrible economic policies have changes this though in the short term at least.
Well of course you would rather have $1M with half in a ROTH account. That represents MUCH MORE savings when you committed it to the account; to the tune of 25% or more for every dollar you put in the ROTH account. Those aren't equal starting points for a comparison.
The question is, "Would you prefer to have $1M in a 401K or about $750K in a ROTH?" The values would need to be adjusted to represent the actual person's tax brackets, but that then helps frame this as a fair starting point for a proper conparison. Not makeing that adjustment for the ROTH starting pioint penalty is disingenuous in my opinion.
100% agree! I hate that most financial planners hammer home the Roth but completely skip on the Roths marginal tax rate contributions while working with the effective tax rate while withdrawing from traditional. The odds are overwhelmingly high that your effective tax rate at retirement withdrawals will be lower if not significantly lower in retirement. It would take a much larger contribution every year to accumulate $1 million in a Roth especially if you are at or above the 22% marginal tax rate while working.
@@anonymousanonymous8932 Yes, exactly.
It's even worse, though... There is also state taxes involved, so the ratios could be even higher than I mentioned...
For example, if you currently work in a state with income tax, but you intend to move to a state without income tax after you retire, the ROTH may make absolutely no sense for you, even if you are in a lower tax bracket (for federal taxes) right now, because the state taxes will effectively negate the savings.
I think this whole ROTH fund decision is being pushed by these financial advisors because it makes them money by consulting on all the conversions, etc. Not that it isn't beneficial to SOME people, but I think to most people it will not be beneficial.
Great tutorial. Obviously lots of moving parts to anyone's retirement plan and there is no one-size fits all plan. Troy does an excellent job walking us thru a few of the many what-if scenarios.
Troy, I really enjoyed this analysis. It made me understand the importance of building up that taxable account (and Roth IRA) accounts to better balance when/if I can retire early.
Your demo assumes a fixed spending goal of $100k through out and calculates the probability. In real life, people do adjust their budget in the down years in order to stretch the dollar. My question is: In order to maintain a X% of probability, how would their spending goal (the original $100k) fluctuates, given all considerations are the same as your demo. Thanks.
This is so ridiculous. Any guy savvy enough to save $1 M by 60 would know that he doesn’t need $100,000 a year to live in retirement and that nor can he afford to.
Depends on how U want to live.
I retired at 42 with usd3.9million….it’s working out quite well and can have everything I would like…. I do have passive income too though.
I am now 49 and comfortable. I just live within my means as I always have.
So you are lying or your granny left you some of her money. Good for you. Now stop bragging about it and get spending.
The probability of success often goes down if you have one person dying early because you lose a lot of SS in that scenario.
Hi Chloe, thanks for watching! There are always different possible outcomes for each scenario and this was just one of the ways we chose to talk about it. We always recommend having a financial planner regularly checking into your portfolio yearly so that you can readjust as life shifts and things change to continue to stay on track.
The key....is there someone who will pay you more than you can retire on? When you retire your wants and needs change.
If Capital=1,000,000
10 Year Expenses=500,000
Insurance:
Premium=500,000 Yield=12% Year=10
Payout(10 Year)=500,000*1.12^10
Payout(10 Year)=1,552,000++.
Payout(10 Year)=1,500,000
Premium=? Yield=12% Year=10
Premium=1,500,000/1.12^10
Premium=482,960(Cash=17,040)
Thank you.
Thanks Ibrahim!
Anyway your scenarios are priceless and make so much sense.
Well it is nice that they are packaged into a multi media event. Real nice. Main thing, are they correct and do they work?
Golden rule: When you can live on 4% of your investments per year, you are financially independent. This is 96% correct. About 4% of the time it will come up short and you’ll need to adjust. From the book The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life.
Hi @zhendizhou1821, thanks for watching and sharing your perspective!
you can retire on 50k, folks, if you know what to do with it. it takes 2-3 years to get set up to do so,, but then you can do whatever you wish. Everyone cant do this, there's room only for a few thousand to do it my way, but anyone can be one of those few thousand.
Exactly. $100k/yr?! My annual expenses are $35000 and that’s with putting an extra $12000/yr in mortgage. So cutting out all “extras” my spending is $20k/yr. At retirement I know I’ll need to pay healthcare costs, so there’s that, but I would NEVER need to spend $100k/yr to live. Move to the Midwest where cost of living is cheap!
@@Michael-jc8nq Yes, but then you would have to live in the midwest... ugh. The armpit of America. I wouldn't suggest that to anyone unless they wanted that lifestyle. There's a reason those places are inexpensive to live.
not unless you know how to make a reliable 30% return on your investment. Youd have to risk it ALL. 30% return on a million is 300k per year, but you'd lose 120k to taxes and SS and 100k to inflation., the way things are in 2021. investing your entire next egg would be a stupid risk to take and nobody can offer you even 10%, much less 30%. What you CAN do, however, is use a vet's VA loan to buy a cheap, big old house, 20k or so, divide it into a dozen small rooms, rent them out ONLY to active duty, single military personnel, $150 a week each After you learn the ropes, start as many such boarding houses as needed for your income to be what you want it to be. This works only near big military bases, but you soon can have live in tenant managers in each place and you can live wherever you want.
Yes. Buy $900k of physical silver, $100k physical gold both in your possession and sit back and watch
No one lives to 90??? My father is 87-1/2, mother-in-law 91, father-in-law passed at 90, my mother, unfortunately, had a bad fall and passed just just shy of 84. All four would have benefitted by waiting to collect at 70. So, taking S.S. at 62 is a gamble too. I'm not taking S.S. until 70. It's no guarantee but, I watch what I eat, don't smoke, have one or two drinks/day, work out, and don't take any prescriptions. Should I be unfortunate, my wife can switch and claim mine. Think I'll care if I'm dead?!!! I know I'll be a lot happier at 70, collecting over $4k.
Thank You Troy. Facts & data matter weather you choose to use or ignore them. Start planning today!
Can we pay a fee to either access the software you use in these videos, or can we pay a fee to have you run through the scenarios for us. I enjoy managing my own money ($2M portfolio and ages 49 and 46 for wife and I), but would love to run through some of these scenarios.
When do you want to retire? I’m 43 and in the same spot, but Fidelity tells me I need to retire at 65. Must because we live in a very expensive city.
@@angelasoWA I'm retiring no later than 59 (10 years from now). My wife is retiring at 59 as well (13 years from now). Quick reasons... she'll be fully vested in her pension (govt. employee) in 13 years, so the guaranteed pension money will be nice. As well, she can provide medical benefits for us for a bit after I retire. I realize we'll have to go to the private market for medical benefits for a bit before we hit 65 (medicare), but such is life.
4% dividend is 40k+30k SSN
So Retire in Mexico or Thailand
Currently there is no Obamacare Cliff of $69,500. It is an 8% cost of MAGI…..so at 100,000 obamacare cost would be $8000 per year or $667/mo
Great point on the qualified vs non-qualified bucket and having a good balance between these.
Not really. He glosses over the fact that you can NEVER have the same amount in a ROTH (or just in a savings account or other after-tax investment account) as you would in a tax-deferred account because most people start with a fixed amount available to save (assuming they both earn similar returns after that point).
If you are able to save $20K a year from your paycheck (before taxes) and you put it into a 401K or similar, it starts off life in the account as $20K. If you take that same amount and put it into a ROTH, you first need to pay taxes on it. So instead of it being $20K, it might be more like $15K (unless you are really not earning much money, in which case, yo may not be able to put that much money away per year).
So, when you retire, you might have $1M in a 401K account, but with the exact same amount of savings that producd that, you might only have about $750K in a ROTH. You can never have the same amount without increasing the savings committment for the after-tax approaches.
finally people are talking about capturing the obama care subsidy, This seems like a critical factor in the 60-65 yr period. A more indepth analysis of the AGI thresholds for pahse out of Obama care would be great. Also an explanation of how capital gains from non-qualified plans affect the AGI.. If you propose to keep a lot of money in non-qualified plans, you can still be hit by capital gains, say from mutual fund distributions.. makes the planning very complicated..
I learned from a fromer SSA employee and is considered masterful about the subject, even without your spouse activating his SS benefits, if he or she is 62 and above, the other spouse CAN start collecting spousal benefits if he os she files? Thank you for your reply.
My great grandfather drank whiskey and smoked cigars everyday. It finally caught up with him at 99. My great aunt was 100 when she passed.
Great to hear of your longevity in your family. Basically you’re screwed.
What about people who retire earlier, maybe have thier own business or realestate rentals. People who retire at 35 or 40. I would like to see difrent scenarios married vs unmarried vs kids and no kids
I retired 9 years ago at 50 and I live off my rentals. I live in Tahoe in the winter and Maui during the summer.
Excellent presentation.
Hey Troy, I’d rather have the problem of having say $2m-$3m in my retirement accounts than not having enough money to retire comfortable. With $3m and a spouse still working one could still probably retire at 58 or 59 an have no real financial issue here.
It all depends on your spending.
Or Never Work at all !!!!!
I have not decided if people want a round of applause and a pat on the back because they saved so much or if they really have a question..............
Some people need 5-10% the first few years while paying things off then can drop down to 3-4%. Just nees those first few years to be really up years.
Thank you!
Leisure and vacation expenses in your 60's and 70's will be replaced by Unpredictable and escalating medical expenses in your late 80's and early 90's, it's not easy to set a figure each year going forward in retirement.
But after 65 you'll have Medicare to cover medical expenses so....
Do you really care how you live after 70? I would let the any infection or disease take over me.
@@MrSuhas888 70 isn’t that old. My parents are approaching 80, healthy and traveling the world. Currently en-route to Portugal. Avoiding drugs, smoking and alcohol + exercise obviously makes a big difference.
@@MrSuhas888 you will feel differently when you are 65
There is a big difference if the couple rents or owns their own home and whether there is still a large mortgage. If they own there own home with no mortgage then spending 100k per year is really too lavish for most people. If they rent I would recommend buying a home even if they need to get a fixed rate mortgage. Downsizing is another issue but that could be a video topic my itself.
Hmm… very complex and brilliant- but couldn’t a simple person buy real estate 100% (if you like Dave Ramsey) or 50% LTV (2 million, 1 million down) if you’re more active. At 5% cap rate the minimum would be 50,000 (likely near zero net taxable). Or real estate averse people could buy the S & P 500 and live on the dividends (ok, they might need to spend less or work a few more years given current dividends). But, the power is worth it.
How many Monte Carlo simulations do you need to calculate the probability of money lasting if the following conditions are met?
1. Buy the S&P 500
2. Spend dividends only
3. Never sell principal
I got 99.99% (maybe a communist take over eliminates all of the public companies in the US?)
Why not train people to build passive income and NOT spend it down? So much simpler.
6th grade math is sufficient.
Goofy video I retired quite a few years ago with not a whole lot of money still going strong just about your lifestyle
I have my mortgage paid off (12 years ago) and am less than one year from retirement. I will receive a pension and social security as well as wife's 401K and social security. I need to know how aggressive I should be with my 401K stock/bond ratio given the other sources of income. Am planning to split 50/50 Vanguard Wellesley/Wellington. Not aggressive enough? Too aggressive?
You have got a good system setup. But one assumption is the kind of statistic distribution you use for the market performance, that’s a big what if. I’m approaching retirement and would like to run some scenarios
It is hard because of unknown variables. The American economy is a Ponzi scheme based on ever increasing government deficit spending. If the spending slows, you have to taper down GDP, profits, and stock market returns. When interest rates go up, the bond portion will take an exponential negative hit in market value. Also, you need to subtract fees from estimated annual income from investments. A 6% return minus 2% fees, means only a 4% gain. Fees are how brokers and pension fund managers become billionaires.
That's a "Go-go, Oh-oh plan!
Thanks for watching, @hogroamer260!
How do you figure rental real estate income? I've got 90% money in rental and 150k in Roth. Single have small pension.
Hi Elisa, thanks for your question! It's tough to answer this in a comment, but we've added this topic to our content idea list for Troy so keep an eye out!
Congratulations! Welcome to the new middle class where a million dollars isn't rich anymore.
I like a more realistic scenario like this: obviously with only a million saved a couple can't retire early and take out 100 grand a year. On the other hand times have changed, a 60/40 portfolio doesn't make sense anymore. Even some commodities don't make sense, look what happened to Gold since Crypto have played such a large roll in investments. Gold has done nothing during the last 8 or 9 months.
Which financial planning software do you use?
Good stuff. 👍
Better have 2 million as a minimum for retirement.
@W. Ha ha! 2 million won't even get you a small house with a carport in Beverly Hills.
16 % inflation plus stock market meltdown how's that million doing?
Use that million to buy several rental properties and earn a monthly income forever.
I'd think about adjusting that life expectancy out to 140 or so, also upon NESARA et al... financial worries will become something that's only read about in the past.
Financial advice and services are really kind of silly at this point as well. So for everyone out there laughing, just remember that you were told early. The "proof" is practically everywhere at this point.
Great tutorial.
Thank you!
Why yes, yes you can retire on one million dollars. Buy yourself a million dollar house and live there until your utilities are cut off.
Maybe a bit unpopular comment 😅 feel it is super hard to follow along. What is showing on the big screen is not very clear. Only the graph section is actually visible. Second half of the lecture is much better.
It is wise words, but very wordy explanations, so end up being lost.
Especially the explanation of social security at 62.
I think current is good for like a live course where you can ask questions live. But think for TH-cam it could be cut down to much more digestible content.
Of course you can live on $100K and year for 10 years and $75K a year there after.
If you have near full social security each (so over $70K right there), and/or one of you has a pension...
But you most definitely can't take that much out of your $1M retirement savings account. Not even close.
Do people really have such wild misunderstandings of basic math?
Have to ask what diseases were killing people 5 years ago and not today? He needs to find cheaper hobbies and be debt free before retiring. The rest isn’t that hard to figure out.
No. Also not that 75k is not going to be worth much when you are 80. 1 million $ is not really very much these days.
I get why you don't like using an Average Rate of Return when projecting forward, but why do you use an Average Rate for inflation every year? Just like returns, inflation can fluctuate. Plus, just like technology is allowing us to live longer, technology is also reducing costs, so there are many items that are getting cheaper every year. Also, doesn't Social Security have a cost of living adjustment every year?
Monte Carlo inflation, excellent suggeation Eric. The interesting thing here is many central banks around the world have two deliverables within their charter
1 maintain underlying inflation within the 2-3% band
2 maintain full employment
little known to most is the monetary policy settings DRIVE THE EMPLOYMENT, not the inflation; the inflation is a lagging indicator of full employment
Thus, whilst I also support variable inflation analysis, central policy (nowadays) has far superior visibility and power to maintain within the 2-3% band. However, sensitivity analysis would be better to model at 3%, rather than 2.25%, then also at 3.5%, to see affect of a 0.5% rise.
GREAT FEEDBACK Eric, 100% correct.
Can you help me plan retirement please ?
Yes. You can do it.
Thank you for the information. I am age 62. I enjoy my work. But looking at retirement to be between 67 and 70. My wife (age 61) and I have a portfolio bouncing with the stock market just under $1 million. IRA. 130. ROTH 35, 401K 760 target fund.. Inherited IRA 85. What is a general suggestion for a distribution retirement portfolio?
Pay them and they will help you figure out something...
My Dad lived to 97, and all his financial planners used 90 as his life expectancy. This caused big problems for us, and it never should have happened. His advisors let him down bigtime.
Sorry to hear that, but no one can predict when a person’s time is going to run out.
Perhaps it's because I live withing my income but how the H E double hockey sticks could someone not live off $100k/yr at age 60?
At what level of debt would one need to reach at life to have bills that large at that age. Granted I'm 43 and will have no mortgage by age 46 but holy moly my wife and I can manage on $120k combined a year with a mortgage, while saving for retirement and paying off our mortgage 8 years early.
Nice on Troy.
Thanks!
The only thing that I'm surprised about that smart people here really think 1 million dollars will be worth more than a 'grocery cart worth' in a few years.
As long as the million is invested in an way that keeps up with inflation, it really doesn’t matter what a grocery cart worth is, because you will have more than a million.
The issue isn’t a million, it is the fact that at 5% growth the should only be drawing out 25k if they expect it to keep up with inflation and not draw it down 5-2.5=2.5.
In fact it’s hard to believe they are planning on 100k a year expenses unless they are in debt or have a high cost of living, in which case they probably haven’t saved enough to retire at 60.
If you can figure a way to make enough money with that money. Problem is that safe investments don't generally pay much. And in retirement you need safe investments.
You keep enough in safe investments to cover your needs for 5-7 years. The rest you can invest in riskier assets.
Agreed Buck. Still no guarantees, but that's how you do it.
It’s uncommon people live to 90. It’s the exception.
My mother, her sister and two brothers are all over 90 years old. Just saying. Four out of five in their family.
It may be the "exception"...but there are still plenty of people in that age range.
Wonder if the example couple has a mortgage? Maybe that's why they want to take more in first 10 years.
they more likely would want to travel during those years. and old people need more security, comfort and convenience than the younger traveler.
hell yes, but its a totally different lifestyle and a lot of hard work