The Global Everything Crisis | ft. Patrick Boyle
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 มิ.ย. 2024
- For access to econ community, consider / moneymacro or consider buying me a 'coffee' at ko-fi.com/moneymacro
LIKE CHATTING ECON WITH ME?
△ Follow me on Twitter: / joerischasfoort
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△ Capitalists server: / discord
MAIN CHANNEL:
/ moneymacro
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
1:13 - Patrick's TH-cam Career
6:25 - Finance Career
6:54 - Patrick Compared To Other YT Channels
10:42 - The Everything Crisis
16:00 - Irrational Markets
19:24 - Efficient Market Hypothesis
29:27 - Elliot Wave's Theory
31:53 - Central Bank Interventions
39:53 - Crypto as Money
48:26 - Is Crypto Useful?
53:51- Would Patrick Buy Crypto?
58:12 - Crypto Questions From The Audience
1:12:48 - Macro Trends
1:21:00 - China's Economy
1:26:42 - EM Investing
1:31:58 - The Energy Situation
1:34:48 - ESG
1:37:49 - EM and Climate Change
Guest: @PBoyle
Host: Dr. Joeri Schasfoort @Money & Macro
Patrick "It's an interesting thing" Boyle
It's important to consider...
Patrick is truly the goat. Extremely well spoken and knowledgeable about a wide range of issues
Do you have any idea how expensive it is to live under a rock in central London these days?
I do it's expensive af
Do you know how much is a room under a rock in zone 2?..
I have to share a rock with another person.
Comment!!
Come out in the sticks to zone 4. £600k for a two bed 👏
Patrick going above and beyond for his students "Ah it was a little thing I was doing to help my students"
And that is why I am such a fan - he's not just smart and does extraordinary research, he is also a really humble and kind person
WOW!...This is the first time I've seen Patrick actually smile! He's adorable.
Patricks channel is dedicated to rap and rapping.
Fantastic collab! I follow Patrick for his fantastic insight and humour. I find his depth on issues are an invaluable resource. I share his curiosity on matter through the lens of finance and appreciate his view points.
I follow Patrick for his take on the Rap scene
This is great! however, I would suggest including headings for separate sections of the podcast, this way people can skip to the parts most relevant to them. Thank you for the video :)
Yes :). I am working on them
Done
What an insane YT crossover event 🤩
So happy to watch you together, guys! Thank you!
Two of my favorite finance and economics channels together!
Great chat! Joeri was very good at letting Patrick talk, while also guiding the discussion to new and interesting topics. Thanks guys!
A great source for news about rap artists and wood nymphs.
patrick is my favorite money youtuber guy. really knows what he's talking about and genuinely wants to educate his viewers.
Seeing Patrick Boyle without.his humor was a trip. Great talk regardless
Still, it’s great to see him smiling throughout the video. He genuinely enjoyed this discussion.
@@Jorge-lh6px agreed. This was a very insightful talk.
Patrick did slip a few dry jokes in there 😉
really appreciate the editing on this as it is 1 hour 40 minutes but its still been condensed beautifully
This was a great listen! You definitely need to do this again.
Woowwww, two legends that I was following for so long!!!
OMG how did I not know this collab happened! So pumped to hear this.
Thank you so much for uploading the video!
It's my pleasure
My two favorite “economics” youtubers! Great collab, as always
you should be proud to be the target of trolls or state actors, it means you touched a raw nerve.
The best two financial TH-camrs I follow, hype hype hype
Thank you for this lovely talk
Great stuff, it's a pleasure to listen to you 👍
45:21 I believe they're called wampums
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wampum
Lovely conversion . love the fact that you explain complex idea into simple form
Amazing interview. Good questions and solid answers that helped me understand more about fiance and learn more about the charismatic TH-camr guest. I've seen his videos before but I found your channel through this interview. Again, Great work.
Awesome conversation!
Thanks!
Great vid guys
Great conversation. Keep it up!
Thanks, will do!
Excellent job dude
you guys rock
Now I'll be thinking all day about the concept of the Kim k of philately
Even the Plain Bagels pays respect 🫡
Wow. He nailed it. Def been saying the reason the Dow was not at 50k was because crypto took that extra froth that the stock market would have had 20ish yrs ago. Great insight
Finally crypto has a use, parting the fool from his money and moving that party elsewhere.
I thought so about crypto and real estate but forgot about the possible effect on financial markets; kudos Patrick. Incidentally the crypto capital appears to have emigrated (lol); it must have gone back somewhere in addition to RE.
Great stuff. Thanks Joeri and Patrick!
I really enjoyed Patrick's point on that pain should be felt by investors. It is highly destructive to take away pain signals, because this is how we learn and develop robust strategies for life. That holds for investing too for certain. It's therefore highly important that pain _is_ felt by those involved in mismanagement / misinvestments, but obviously, this shouldn't go as far as crippling an economy altogether.
Also greatly appreciated both your insights on some global trends. It does really seem like a bit of a perfect storm is brewing. We still have quite some stock overvaluations, bubblicious housing market, extreme debt levels, still too exuberant crypto markets, combined with these very radical moves made to manage the pandemic that propagated like shockwaves throughout the global economy. These seem to still bounce around, and waves echo back, sometimes amplifying each other. I'm using the analogy because it makes me think of that at some point, we became aware that armies shouldn't do their typical rhythmic march across a bridge, as the resonance was found to collapse some bridges unexpectedly. I hope we can learn the lesson that the resilience our economies have also has limits and that global responses may have to be a bit more moderate.
I also wonder what will happens next to markets. Emerging markets are simply the least resilient to downswings and go under first, because naturally, they always have some s**t going on; but our increasing interconnectedness makes that the developed world may eventually experience real backlash too. Especially if a country like China starts to crack under its pressured housing market, financial market (and seemingly increasing civil unrest with its own set of consequences), which will be harder to cover by the CCP if their emerging market bonds are being defaulted upon.
Whatever may happen, let's hope that (1) it won't hurt too badly, and (2) that we can continue to properly identify cause and effect in this interconnected world, so that we can at least draw some valuable lessons from it all. I'm looking forward to both your analyses the coming years :)
The poor are always the ones who "feel" economic swings, even without bailouts. The rich always come out richer while the poor come out poorer, obviously, this is why they(company's) will never learn and haven't in 100 years.
Excellent video
I hope there will be a yearly follow-up to this conversation of reviewing the global financial year
"It would be a lot of work to churn out 10000 images of monkeys" Generative AI would be like "hold my pixels"
I'm fan of Patrick! And he's got great humor... I also like he's suits, he kind of dress like a hitman sometimes
True. Not that you mention it. Maybe it was for the best that the interview was done digitally.
@@MoneyMacroTalks Patrick never shows the back of his head because that's where the barcode tattoo is
At some point Patrick says he doesn't get the value attributed to rare stamps or pokemon cards, and I generally agree, but I would like to point out a key difference between the two.
The stamp is purely a collectible, like a piece of art, but the pokemon card is a collectible and a functional game with active communities and tournaments. If you enjoy the game and want to participate in these tournaments, you need to own cards. Some cards are more powerful than others, and these cards tend to hold the highest value. So the price of a pokemon card is a combination of it's perceived power in tournaments combined with the collectors' preferences. There are pure collectors and pure players, but many owners of pokemon cards are some combination of the two.
When a pure collector purchases pokemon cards they are (often unknowingly) making a bet that the game designers will continue to attract and retain new players, because if they fail to do so the prices will largely collapse.
this was great, maybe this can be done on a regular basis 🍻
You mean with Patrick?
@@MoneyMacroTalks yeah you guys create great material! Maybe a review of world finance each quarter or something like that✌🏽
Great fan of Boyle!
It was Joe Kennedy got the stock pick advice from the shoe shine
I read a good amount of your thesis. Great stuff! Any hypotheses on long-term implications of using a central bank as a buyer or seller of last resort? Also, how long did it take to write?
I bought Market Sense and Nonsense by Jack Schwager. Thanks for the recommendation. I have a commodity book by Jack Schwager that I bought decades ago. Will look forward to reading this one.
Hell ye it's the man
45:14 Wampum,
Recognized as a currency by Massuchetts Bay Colony 1650
Regarding 1:05:54:
My first (and usually last) quick test for Web3 proposals is to question how they make use of the special properties of blockchain technology. Those are A) decentralisation*, B) immutability, C) trustlessness and D) a model of ownership in which holding cryptographic key is equivalent to ownership and not just the authentication of a person who owns something.
D) is imho a complete non-starter for mass adoption, at least with self-hosted keys/without banks/middle men. A cryptocoin wallet is like a copyable debit card that can't be disabled when stolen, can't be reissued when the last copy is lost and has no transaction limits or fraud protection. I don't think this is something boomers (because you mention them around 57:42) want or should want. And if mass adoption is only feasible through intermediaries, it defeats much of the decentralisation/anti-bank rhetoric. It's also pointless for any use-case in which the customer must be known to the service provider (e.g. loyalty schemes, rentals, etc.).
A) and C) are incompatible with any use-case in which tokens grant access to services from a single party because we don't need A) or C) if only the copy of the blockchain that this single party recognises is relevant. E.g. property deeds are only meaningful when recognised by the state, NFTs for access to media are only meaningful when recognised by the publisher and so on for loyalty systems etc.
B) is actively harmful in any system in which we want to correct mistakes, protect privacy by allowing users to delete older records, reverse fraudulent transactions, etc.
The combination of A), B), C) and D) seems to be good for one thing and that's unseizable* money with unblockable* transactions and pseudonymous account holders, i.e. the original use case of bitcoin. Interesting for outlaws but of very limited use to anybody else.
* Of cause these systems are not really decentralized in practice. Economics of scale and division of labour are still a thing, especially with complicated technologies, so while e.g. Bitcoin or Ethereum (and anything built on these protocols) are decentralized in theory, in practice they are controlled by a couple of big mining pools, which is expected because mining is only viable with access to large amounts of specialised hardware and cheap electricity at scale. Similar to DAOs in which the founders have enough of the government tokens to control decision making.
So the coins/tokens are not really unseizable, unblockable, it's just that the large mining pools don't care about blocking e.g. tranasactions from ransomware proceeds. But they do care about blocking or even reversing transactions and seizing coins when their own interests are threatened, see e.g. the Ethereum fork because of the The DAO or the farce of Solend's SLND1 proposal vote.
@@anon_9221 i agree with you, but just a note that for bitcoin the network is held up both by miners and by nodes. You need to control a majority of nodes to be able to control the blockchain, and nodes are far more decentralised than btc mining. So in practice i don't think that's a big risk to bitcoin.
Other cryptocurrencies are a different story though.
Falsifiability? Patrick is my hero...
Patrick has a very believable Irish accent!
wow for an economist this is like superheroes in the Marvel Universe teaming up!
What is the definition of "emerging market"? I live in Taiwan (a wonderful independent country by the way) and I experience the country as emerged/developed. I might have a misapprehension about the definition of the word, though.
I would say, low and middle income economies that should be growing (emerging). Taiwan is a high income economy. So, I wouldn't classify it as emerging.
If you guys thought you were getting nasty comments from simply mentioning the financial problems China is facing, you will definitely get it ratchet up to 11 by mentioning the fact that Taiwan is a country. =)
I would recommend you interviewed Richard Duncan
NFT originally got there value from gambling in video games. You made more for buying a rare NFT but you never cashed out because you needed to buy better NFT
To those interested in energy and the topics of 1:33:00, I recommend books by Vaclav Smil.
there was a little software I used with crypto that collected donation address and spread a weekly donation among all the place I visited.
I thought that was genius way to male donation far more effiecient, cheaper and decentralised than patreon.
This is so goood 🤤
1:10:47 Information wants to be free, but people want to get paid.
Would be great if you could turn these talks into a podcast! 👍
Yes. That is on my to-do list :)
Ive never clicked on a video so fast.
That point Patrick makes at 48:00 where he mentions the cost of regulation in currency spreads is worrying for the future of crypto.
Especially with MiCA and other regulation coming. If this does increase fees and spreads it could be a death blow. I hope not.
I am the Kim Kardashian of Stamp Collecting
Do you think many of the regulatory processes that Crypto side steps can be automated and appended to the public blockchain?
Bots attacking ideas probably means you have found where the body's are hidden.
15:44 Is there an accepted figure for the “Crazy Money” pool?
Is there a recognized authority which reports on how Crazy Money is being allocated?
I think currency inherent values lies on its ability to facilitate trade: if something has certain properties to be a good store of value, can be used as medium of exchange, then automatically, its inherent value as a currency is not zero. In a way, you can think of it as a service of providing transaction processing, and if the service has utility, then it has value. Of course there are certain things that are better at that job than other (we have moved from seashells, to gold, to paper money). The US dollars for example is quite useful in the way that the government promises to be the ultimate arbiter that determines who owns what for anyone to appeal to. It turns out that when someone knock on your door with an armored SWAT team telling you what you own and owe, you tend to listen.
Therefore the question is: does crypto characteristics enable it to better facilitate trade than current methods (or is better at certain markets than current methods)? This would involve sub-questions like whether people value a figure that can redistribute asset or backtrack transactions against fraud or they want to ditch that figure to prevent anyone holding too much power; which ecosystem do people want to trade in more?
In this way, I would disagree with Joeri on cryptocurrency being like collectibles (like NFTs for that matter) and values going up because people say it is going up. If cryptocurrency does offer benefits as a way to process transaction over current methods, people would like to use the system to process transaction, which means they would need crypto to engage in the system, which would mean they would offer something (asset, labor, ...) and exchange it into crypto, and the crypto is then backed by real world economic activity.
Given that crypto has taken in so much of the froth will that mean that the upcoming recession wont be as deep as some previous ones?
I'm a potter and on the subject of value i find it amusing that if you put a handle on something it is instantly worth less money depsite it being a lot more involved to make..
Woah that's weird, why is that?
@@VanguardArmament I suppose it's as it is more clearly 'useful'.. potters always moan that they can't get Fine Art prices for their work and I suspect it's generally as it's all more useful..
What's the importance of running a trade surplus (e.g. in emerging vs developed economies)? Because if we realise it's vital, then some might say it's time to dust off the old mercantilist playbooks
In emerging economies, I think you can see it clearly for Russia and e.g. Sri-Lanka. Running CA-surpluses gives you more independence.
If the word economy was a purely rational place, I don't think it should have mattered. Balance is more important.
What about Benjamin Grahan vs EMH?
I like seeing Patrick as a human more. But I enjoy his jokes and their delivery.
Did I miss this stream today?
It was last week.
@@MoneyMacroTalks Sad that I missed the livestream. I think I didn’t get notified
@@johndove2835 sorry about that. YT notifications can be very inconsistent.
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jsyk the capitalists server link no longer works,
Crypto has no cash flows? what about security fees like eth uncle rewards
The discussion on intrinsic value of crypto got me thinking, what intrinsic value does gold have? It’s used in electronics now so one can maybe argue for some definite value, but for a long time the only reason it was so valuable was because it’s scarce and shiny and pretty. Am I missing something?
It is industrial and commercial uses but also in jewellery (shiny and pretty). It has a deep cultural value, especially in places like India and Pakistan.
Gold has lots of utility even 10k years ago, but a few is that it can't be replicated and it can't expire(go bad). Cryptos weakness is that it NEEDS electricity and computers to even exist.
All value is subjective. Diamonds are worthless in day to day life. I need water but not gold. If crypto is useful it will be used and become valuable. Intrinsic value is a fallacy.
I always have some objections when I hear people compare NFTs and Crypto to trading cards. Well in a way to validate NFTs. They are pretty similar, but that's because the trading card market is also manipulated to high heaven and should in no way ever be treated as something to be taken seriously. I've played yugioh for decades, and there's two very different communities around it.
There's the players, who tend to be late teens to early 20's who spend 2 to 3 days a week going to local tournaments, probably spend 2 to 3 grand a year just on cards, might go to a big tournament when they are near by, probably spends upwards of 20 hours on the game in some way or the other. Even if they aren't physically playing the game they might be following set spoilers on social media, or thinking about combos with new cards, its basically their lives.
Then there's the shop owners and other people who interact with the game entirely based on market speculation. They tend to be older, at least in their 30's, most of them made their hobby their business and no longer even like the current game, though they do interact with newer players a good amount. The super high prices for cards you see are usually a result of old cards being held by a small section of the community with only a small portion of them being traded around at any one time. Very few people, if any, actually pay the price that the price tags have for the cards, most people either picked them up years ago when they were still affordable, or you have large investors do discounted rates and rarely pay above 60% on the listed prices for these things.
You see market manipulation all the time with the newer cards too. A new pack comes out and there's a meta relevant card and I've seen it go from $40 to $60 in just a few days before dropping down as too many sellers forces the price back down. I'd say expensive cards get expensive because there isn't really that downward pressure so things end up inflated. At some point people are going to be forced to sell, and there won't be people to buy them. Its just like the fine arts scam, only market manipulation can create such high prices for trading cards.
I can imagine that with trading cards (just as with many other asset classes) there are very different communities. One of them being pure speculators. You see this with watches as well for example.
I also agree with your analysis of downward pressure being difficult. I don't fully see though how the market is actually manipulated? Maybe by pushing rumours?
@@MoneyMacroTalks they buy every available listing of a card on the online market places and since those are what everyone use for determining the value of a card, cards are suddenly worth a lot more.
As for spreading rumors, tcgs are a lot like crypto in that it's very much hype driven. The big things that affects the price of a card day to day is how playable it is in the current game and how soon a reprint will happen for it.
I'm not sure if this is market manipulation, but I know there are a few big players that buy the high end stuff to maintain a floor on it. A while back the big shops had a problem where they had to stop their buy list for some of the real high end Magic the gathering cards.
A buy list for a shop means that if you show up with a card they will buy it at that price, no questions asked. They are usually pretty crappy since it's not unusual for the price to be %50 to %60 of market value.
The shops were flooded with so many people selling cards that they didn't have the liquidity to keep up and stopped taking them for a short period of time. Their solution was to lower the buy list price, by about a half if my memory is correct, while keeping the listed price of the cards on the marketplaces the same.
How prescient about the money laundering, it's just in the news.
Of course debt is at an all time high. The boomers are retiring, where do you think the boomers put their money ? Certainly not under the bed !
As value appears to be a subconscious assessment, wouldn't all values be non intrinsic? Majority of the values we seem to hold (as a species) are based on either rarity (the modern version is novelty), or our socially programmed brain ( "fairness" to maintain social integrity); considering both of those concepts can easily be subverted by changes to the brain structure or neural pathways, those base concepts are non intrinsic.
American banking system is way more expensive then the European system. Strangely enough Europe is moving towards the American creditcard system more and more. Only reason is profit. Maestro is way cheaper then Mastercard or Visa.
But, this is mostly with debit cards that look like credit cards, right?
@@MoneyMacroTalks yes and no, there is broad acceptance of Debit Visa, Credit Visa and debit Maestro. Some supermarkets don’t even accept Mastercard or Visa (debit or credit) in the Netherlands because it hurts the margin.
Would it be too short sighted to just explain away record levels of private and cooporate debt by a long time of very low interest rates?
Not sure if it can explain it fully. But yeah, that probably contributed and makes it less dangerous... Unless rates start rising
Bubbles crashing gets rid of liquidity from inefficient actors and forces them to be more efficient. It's like anything else in nature, there are ebbs and flows, but the deflation is when things get better again. That's why governments borrowing excessive amounts against fiat currency always leads to issues.
Oh... Someone dares to talk about moral hazard
37:35 who of you heard somebody fart 💨😄
Hehe, that was an audio glitch ;)
@49:45 Isn't the Eurodollar system outside of all the government's regulations? The Eurodollar grew because it offered higher interest rates.
At the time, absolutely, Eurodollars were much less regulated.
These days, not so much. Eurodollars is just foreign bank issuing dollar liabilities. These foreign banks are still regulated by their own governments. And U.S. has lots of influence over them as well (see e.g. Russia sanctions).
@@MoneyMacroTalks Is there any good papers on Russia and Eurodollar?
Bitcoin is money in which you can store your savings. Yes its currently volatile, but long term, it stores your energy reliably.
"Does an increase in market participation increase efficiency or impare price discovery?" - wtf? A market is just an aggregate of all trading activity. Increasing activity won't make it more or less efficient because it has changed, it's bigger now. Will it impare price discovery? What? It will change it but price is just what's determined by the aggregate of activity. There is no golden 'true price'. It is what it is. Gamestop: the market price might be ridiculous but it is the market price. Currently deemed most efficient by all current participants. Will this change? Likely yes but that will be a different market with new participants. A market is not like a filter through which you establish the truth. It's a lot of buggering about, the record of which is what happened, the truth.
bitcoin 60-70k to 20k or less...going up now. from 20k.
Now 40k
Look, if pretty looking women on Tinder say in their profile "talk to me about blockchain", there is a bubble. You can't get evidence more solid than that.
It would be a good idea to cut full screen to your guest when you don't appear to be paying attention and are reading questions maybe. It's a terrible look seeing you do something else when your guest is talking.
Thanks for the tip. In the future, I probably need to find someone to help with the live chat.
I think there are fairly simple switching boxes you can get so you can just use buttons similar to a TV studio. Still watching the vid. Very high quality discussion 👍
@@MoneyMacroTalks i am no expert but do you use tools like OBS? You can setup hotkeys to switch between guest, host and guest+host feeds. And if it's anything like twitch, you may be able to embed the comment feed in the video stream. And yes chat mods will help a lot :)
@@manishm9478 yes OBS. Thanks for the tip. I'm still learning about this live interview format. So, these tips are very valuable :)
John Oliver recently said that Afghanistan is having a problem with not enough paper currency to go around for people to buy the otherwise full inventories of food in stores th-cam.com/video/x2hw_ghPcQs/w-d-xo.html. If this is true, I wonder why the Afghani don't do like the Irish did in the 70s. Maybe in the current unstable situation they don't trust that promissory notes will have any value in the future, but then why would they think their paper currency will...
That doesn't surprise me. They had outsourced printing and then lost access due to sanctions.
th-cam.com/video/jPoihz--ZBQ/w-d-xo.html
This was interesting, but there were a lot of points which Patrick made which I would push back on.
For example: he suggests that crypto has very little inherent benefit over tradfi systems as a mean of exchange, and the reason that we don’t see that obviously yet is that the kinds of actors who would actually use it that way aren’t able to yet because the regulatory framework hasn’t really encapsulated the kinds of activities in crypto which they might potentially engage in, so that the only current efficiency advantage crypto has over tradfi is that the regulations which present obstacles to banks and other regulated tradfi systems are simply being ignored in crypto. This might be true now, but in a few years’ time, things like algorithmic adherence to regulatory standards will be possible, and when things like this are more broadly available; they’ll represent a HUGE cost reduction for regulated industries, actors, and sectors.
Crypto offers some very unique and extremely useful value adds, most of which have not even been ideated yet.
57:25 "when will your mom own Bitcoin". Isn't that the exact same argument we had with the internet 25 to 30 years ago? Back then very few could imagine to do online banking, order online or do anything. TH-cam, Apps, social media and so much more were a decade away.
Partially. But, after a few years of widespread adoption, I do think that the internet already had many more real world use cases.
I disagree with the comparison, the internet has utility and always was made to be one, bitcoin is a commodity and barely that.
@@douglaslarsen162 Then take web3 or crypto as a whole. Bitcoin will be flipped soon anyway.
@@FutureGuy47 both those ideas intrinsic values are dependent on transaction or micro pay walls to be valuable. Totally different from utilities like electrical or the internet infrastructure. Bitcoin NEEDS utility just to exist, it's barely a commodity, like I said, because if an emp takes out the computer doing the useless blockchain algorithms all at once, bitcoin then ceases to exist at all or at best will restart.
@@MoneyMacroTalks Not true. The early Internet in the 1980th had basically no usecase and a horribly usability with dialup modems. The s-curve of adoption of crypto is also steeper than the internet.
Usecases: Stablecoins are huge for billions of people in poorer or unstable countries. As a US citizen you are used to a quite stable and strong currency. But if you have constant high inflation or capital controls crypto is basically the only way. NFTs are also a use case for artist to make money or in-game items and in future off chain assets. Or take borrow&lend on Aave, DEX like uniswap.
The smartest people go into the space and the development of the apps follow these people. Outsiders point to the problems, but for them these are great opportunities.
Bitcoin is sadly defining what crypto means for people, but all has so many problems and limited usecases.
State actors are teh worst actors.
This is edited very strangely...
Sometimes i find Patrick watchable and sometimes not, largely because he thinks inside of the US/Western thought bias without realising it....his Maoist comment being typical. A few China watchers have latched on to comments from Xi and now run with it as though China was embarking on a new cultural revolution.....which assumes Xi is a foolish zealot and is ridiculous.
First 11 minutes is blah blah blah. Your welcome