ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ย. 2024
- Do you think Jagex are hiding this?
Giveaway of the full loot! / discord
I stream at / rhys
Music from www.epidemicso...
Twitch: / rhys
Twitter: / rhysosrs
Discord: / discord
TH-cam Main: / @rhysosrs
TH-cam Shorts: / @rhysshorts217
Next video - YOU WON'T BELIEVE HOW MUCH THESE REV PVMERS RISK :DDDD!!
LOOOL ffs, I always put a cheeky disclaimer
Making max cash from rev pk'ing. Just a 10 sec video of you deleting him and showing the loot key.
💪🏾💯
LOOOL
Learnt from the best
Now do 2500 kills with barely any risk, and let's compare numbers
🎉
Exactly, funny that he didn't like or reply to your comment. He's a blah blah guy.
@@Westsidegangnation You okay? Need a hug? Or a glass or milk? Little man child... lmao
@@TheSkidds Chill kid
@@Westsidegangnation Oof... So scared you deleted your comments. What a puss.
You are right on drop rate for the bracelets. The expected value for 2500 kc would be 377 bracelets, and you have 372. That being said perhaps there is only an increased drop rate (due to high risk) for the high value/totem/emblem drops. In order to analyze that I would calculate the probability of getting ANY totem/emblem, and from that calculate the expected number of any type of totem/emblem you’d get. I’ve done that for you (when you want to know probability of “A or B”, you calculate by doing P(A)+P(B)=P(A or B). Then to calculate expected value you multiply probability by kc), roughly, here it is: 2500((1/1333)+(1/2000)+(1/4000)+3(1/8000))=4.68, i.e. you expect about 5 totems/emblems of some sort at the end of 2500 kc. You got 8, which is 3 more than the expectation, is that significant? I don’t know for sure.
It’s not
The wiki says a rev dragon is worth 41k per kill skulled, so you'd expect to get around 100m in drops if you killed 2500. Seems more likely that this isn't a thing based on that.
Also lines up with his other 3k rev kill video, with only a 1.2b risk
You didn't take into account drop rates at all, He got a chainmace, multiple emblems etc all super rare, sure could be coincidence etc and probably is, but if he did a recap showing what he actually got according to drop rate it would be very interesting. a lot of 1/4k's despite only 2.5k kills is weird
@@fujster just because it's rare dont mean its gonna take that long lol
@@RsChrisG exactly. Something could be 1/1,000,000,000 chance and you could literally get it on the first kill.
Do people remember when you had “earned potential” by standing in the Wiley for a certain amount of time with “X” amount of risk? The higher your EP the better chance you had for getting better loot
omg core memory
Pepperidge farm remembers
Bro, you teleported me back to 2010, stop
Yeah that was just after the bounty hunter volcano was removed, you had to risk atleast 75k this was also when “sparc mac ninja turtled a green dragon bot for a dragon full helm”
wasnt this heavily abused in "hotspots" and people would farm dfull helms etc?
You should have calculated your drop rate of emblems/wildy weapons and compared it to the stated drop rates. Can't really tell how lucky you got on the drops. But your theory does sound pretty probable.
They should legit add that to the game, risk more, better loots
A lot of people are talking about drop rate but don't seem to understand how it works. Every single drop you have the exact same chance to get any of the drops on the table. Just because you get something more often doesn't mean it's more of a chance to get it. They just added more of that item to the table then the higher valued ones. ( You have 100 chances of basic loot each, but only 1 chance of the high end loot) it's all still 1 chance
Pretty conclusive proof that p n m is using that bot. Should send it to jagex tipoff
Yea they won’t do shit generally, maybe if Rhys sent it in id be different. But normally they legit wont do a thing.
3:03 "the ol dds aint hitting that" lmao
WARNING: STATISTICS
Tl;dr: Statistically, your loot is *NOT DISTINGUISHABLE at the 95% level* from the expected revenant dragon loot. The data *does not support* the drop table being different because of your risk.
Long version: The question to answer is whether the distribution of your loot is _statistically different_ from what you could expect if the drop table on the OSRS Wiki is correct. If the frequency or quality of your drops truly does scale with risk, we should be able to show, using statistics, that the OSRS Wiki drop table _doesn't line up_ with your drops beyond what could be expected from chance. The correct test to use in this case is the chi-squared test, which compares expected frequencies to observed frequencies. That is, given 2500 kills and the OSRS Wiki drop table, we can calculate what drops you should've expected to get (the expected frequencies), and compare that to the drops you DID get (the observed frequencies), and use the chi-squared test to detect if you're abnormally lucky, or if your drops could've realistically come from the reported drop rates.
To perform the test, I went through the OSRS drop table and tabulated how many times, on average, you should have expected to get each individual drop. I included every possible drop besides those listed in the Secondary table (these are separate from normal drops; you can get both a normal drop and a secondary drop, so leaving them out gives a more accurate comparison on whether your normal drops were more or less lucky). I then tabulated your drops, shown around 10:15 in the video, and attempted to calculate how many times you received each drop. Some items drop in a range (assumed to be uniformly distributed), so I can't know exactly how many times you got each drop based on the total count of items such as Law Runes, but I can get an approximation. And, it's worth noting, I need the *number of drops*, not the total number of items you received. E.g., if you got a drop of 100 blood runes, that counts as a single blood rune drop. If I count it as 100 drops of 1 blood rune, that would invalidate the test.
So, to be clear, I'm counting the frequency of you receiving each individual drop, NOT the number of each item you received. This is important because the chi-squared test requires the totals in each category to be the same, or the test is invalid. You got 2500 kills, so you should have received 2500 individual drops. By my count, you received the equivalent of 2503.1 "average" drops (i.e., on drops where there is a range of possible quantities, you received slightly more than the average value, overall). This difference is tiny, and is likely too small to be statistically significant (i.e., it's more likely due to randomness rather than this being "lucky"). Since the "actual" and "expected" frequencies must be the same, I scaled up the expected drops to be for 2503.1 kills (or, roughly equivalently since the difference is so small, your drops could be scaled down to an even 2500).
What I have now is two lists. The first is the drops you should've expected to get from 2500 kills if the drop table is accurate. The second is the drops you _did_ get with 6.6B risk. The chi-squared test gives us a p-value, which in this case can be taken to mean, "the likelihood that the drop table is, actually, correct (regardless of your risk), and it was by complete chance that you got the drops you got (or a drop frequency distribution further from the drop table's values)."
The chi-squared test returns a p-value of (0.063). This means that if the OSRS Wiki drop table is correct, you could expect those drops or "worse" (i.e., "further drop the drop table") about 6.3% of the time. This p-value is higher than 0.05, which is a commonly accepted standard for statistical significance, meaning *we cannot rule out that the OSRS Wiki drop table is, indeed, correct* based on this data.
"Aha, but what about the number of ancient statuettes and uniques! Surely _that_ was higher than average!" Yes, you did receive slightly more of these drops than average. But, by the same analysis as above (but only including uniques and ancient statuettes), I get a p-value of (0.111). Again, not enough evidence to reject the OSRS Wiki drop table. This data alone doesn't rule out the OSRS Wiki drop table still being correct, regardless of your risk.
"What about just uniques, then?" Still above average thanks to the Chainmace, still not statistically significant (p=0.118).
Long story short, based on the drops you showed, there's not enough evidence to rule out the drop table being correct, even for 6.6B risk.
Amazing, don't know much about statistics, but this does seem to make sense. Not a conspiracy theorist myself, but based on my unique luck in previous high-risk revenant videos I though I'd test it myself (As I don't think anybody else would have done). Where I was going with it was mentioning about the unique drops being increases (totems, weapons, etc) not connected to the normal drops (like how the skull works), but you did cover that too. Thank you very much for the detailed comment!
And thank you for collecting all the data! OSRS is a great place for data analysis and statistics, but we can't test conspiracy theories like this unless someone actually goes out and gets a big, consistent dataset. Tracking all the kills like you did, all with such high risk, is exactly the kind of thing we need if we want to prove (or disqualify) big claims like this.
@@Avogadro6023x1023 Holy shit can you do my fiancial derivatives class for me ill throw you $$
Could be totally wrong about this, in no way am I a stats kinda guy I learned this in genetics lab, and I could be wrong about this but in this instance i do believe it would be possible to use the fisher combined method to combine the p-values you gained to make create a single probability p-value to account for all three categories. If that’s the case and that can apply here you get a p-value of 0.0275 which would make it statistically significant and the probability of getting the drops is not due to chance but something else
Those are still some pretty low p values. I appreciate you actually sorting out the p values. Either way, his RNG is lucky AF. That's only a ~11% chance that it was just good RNG.
I always enjoy these videos thanks for taking the time to risk that much but put out this type of content cause not many people do
Do this with 20b risk to see if you get 4x the drops and bring in Dino and Solo as body guards to hit you in case someone logs in
"The ol dds aint hittin that" 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The mission is simple, skull, bring a 2b+ item. 3a pic etc, bring trash gear with no food only ppots to prevent you from getting smited. Prot item off unless ur being attacked by players.
dino saying "fuck" was so damn funny
Rhys is literally the definition of “never let them know you’re next move”. 🤣
you are next move
Are you next move?
loooool
M8 a bit nerve racking is the biggest underestimate I've heard so far in 2023. If that were me my computer chair would have chunks out of the seat just from the pucker factor
ive noticed this a while ago, when i do wilderness slayer in rag i get shit loot, if i bring a good +1, it rains larrans keys
Yeah I reckon you should do a 0gp -1b or even 10b from rev loot alone. Or a 100,000 rev kc series
I think it’s definitely possible. There’s also all of the clips of pkers killing the imps and getting emblems/rev weapons. The drop rate of emblems is 1/12k to 1/24k, and the drop rate for a weapon is 1/121k. Yet I know multiple people who have gotten it. The pkers would be risking 100m+ at the time. Very good chance you’re right about this.
Side note, Back in bounty hunter days risk was determined without accounting for protect item so I don’t think that would matter
Confirmation bias. You ever see 10 000 clips of people killing imps and not getting anything?
Or people you know complaining they went tens of thousands dry for no weapon?
even if this theory is actually true, i imagine there is some sort of cap to how much you can improve your chances with risk. probably anything above 1B risk would not add anything, though this is just my guess.
Yeah no clue what these figures would be if it was true
New drinking game: take a shot every time Rhys gets an emblem. We’d be waking up with quite the headache the next day
I was in Dino’s stream when you traded him that makes it even more hilarious 😂
nice vid ur insanely confident lol i feel like that mod wouldnt have held out on mechanics when he told ROT about the skulled revs thing.
you should kill 2.5k drags in venny gear now to compare.
As if risking FULL MAX in rev caves wasn't enough, Rhys finds a way to risk even more lmao
Actual gigachad, you're actually insanely underrated brother
I’ve got Sceptre and Mace from Goblins unskulled on my iron in 7k kills naked with D scim I doubt risk is involved.
Bro you last vid in the wildy when you was killing it the thought went through my head loool
If it were a secret mechanic it might not work above max value risk of 2.1b
Rhys: "1 thing I did want to mention is I probably won't be doing this for a long time". Inbefore the next vid titled: My theory is correct: Rev caves PvM with 20B risk!
hypothesis testing from statistics can be used to answer this question
Fully expecting someone to die for their whole banks after watching this lol
Hope not, disclaimers n dat
How haven't I seen this RS YT account before? You're videos make afk training so enjoyable. Thank you!
I can smell a venny's mouth watering from here.
Dino just wheeze laughing in disbelief was hilarious
I just pulled a volatile orb on FSW. Wondered if you wanted to buy? I’m sure it would be quite entertaining pking with The only one on fsw. Especially with the wilderness update next week!!
Hey mate, congrats, but sadly i've quit FSW a long time ago.
You’re so close to completing that collection log!! Keep going!
Awesome vid man, you'll have to retry this if they make wildy weapons more common
"shitbag made me pause gielinor games" lmfao
I thought you were gonna do this AND not bank like last vid lol, that'd be truly insane
“Risk” as in catch a freeze and log.
After watching your rev vids I started gearing up in 40m risk to kill rev dragons. It a pretty fun way to make some gp while risking and practicing pvp
Remember to only risk what you're willing to lose though! Glad you're having fun in the wilderness though.
@@RhysOSRS For sure. I mainly just enjoy the challenge of escaping, but I also want to lower the risk and get better at anti pking
These vids are why I'm glad I Subbed. I'd like to say deeper wildy lv = more loot but I already asked Mod Ash and he said no :(
Now to really assess if the drop rate is altered with risk.... risk 6.6b and kill nothing but rev imps.
I went into the rev caves for the first time the other day and I was having a heart attack trying to fend off a pker when I was only risking 200k
I think I would have died of a brain aneurysm if I was risking that much money.
haha keep going you'll keep improving and get used to the rush you get!
@@RhysOSRS It was definitely a rush mate hahahahaha
the true king of the caves revenant
I love seeing maxed out RS content
I did hear if you drop 500m in front of a guy called “nobrainer” in the revenant cave you get insane luck
Best conspiracy theory on the internet.
Well put together.👏
I wasn't pking but 2 weeks ago I entered the rev caves, and I got an ancient relic after my 14th Demon kill....I was SHOOK. Literaly 5 minutes turned into 15.5 mil lol
Your confidence in these rev vids astounds me. Top tier content as always bro. Love these rev vids
That should be enough evidence to ban that P n M guy for botting.
I will say I was killing revs on my lvl 79 maxed g maul pure with bowfa unskulled risking probably a glory and d hide chaps and in 8 kills at lvl 98 demons I got a ancient relic and chainmace
I actually have pretty insane luck at revs and I risk a decent amount with an insane log. However, I'm not risking Torva haha. I have like all 3 rev weapons in 2k rev dragons. Just missing the top 3 ancient totems.
I don’t think having more than max cash/risk would make the drop table any better. If the code doesn’t/can’t distinguish between values at max cash and those that are greater, the random number generator in the code or the formula, wouldn’t be affected.
This isn’t a Bubble gum little league RSPS. These are actual developers.
enjoyed it rhys hopin you cover the reworked wildy boss stuff next week
Yeah I'm massively looking forward to it!
Makes sense cause all the bots are in low risk shitty gear and they cant get control of them
Awesome video! Do you think using a divine rune pouch with blood and ice spells would be better than just ice sacks?
Yeah i'd say so if you don't mind risking the parchment, I don't have the thread though haha
Not too tough to get, even running entry modes.. Just thought it might be added food/health in case of any emergencies
@@bammillerr yeah honestly might be a shout to just do some entry modes to grab one
@@RhysOSRS I will carry you through toa for free
@@RhysOSRS come on Rhys even dino has been ToA 🤣
Mate your mad, loving the content :D think i needa practice escaping pk'rs as i always seem to die before i get to chaos altar 😂
I love a good conspiracy theory, nice vid giga chad, chadius maximus
you heard em boys! make sure to bring your bank to revs.
Absolutely nutty... but I do love a good conspiracy theory
Wiki numbers have always been wrong in my opinion.
You could actually prove something with statistics here. Crowdsource some data form rev killers. Something like #kills, #emblems within those kills and the risk they had while killing. Then fit a regression to see if you just got lucky or if there really is something there.
Like I said in the intro I can only go off anecdotal evidence, there isn't really anybody to get statistics from as people don't risk big amounts killing revenants.
@@RhysOSRS Well you are! If you send me the data, I can do the stats
I green logged revs @ 3k kc with 90% of the kills being dragons. The dragon is cracked for sure
I too have a theory about rng. But mines a bit more dramatic. I think if you die quickly in LMS enough, you’ll eventually get better rng for your hits, because the noobs in LMS hit through pray so often
Ah see. His theory has basis and probable cause etc, yours sounds like "Noobs hit me through prayer all the time sadge" it's a psychological thing, you are simply not looking at all the times they don't hit you through prayer, and your brain is seeing the times they do hit you as more notable so it seems like it's more often than it is
@@fujster well we know Jagex is tweaking game code behind the curtains. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a discreet system in place to lower the ceiling and raise the floor, as many game companies do.
Surprised you couldn't have tried this in a beta server
Now try with 13.2b risk and see if you get twice as much loot
wildy risking NEVER gets old, especially with good pkers lol
You've gotta include the time spent & gp/hour in max gear b/c no one else does this xD Also do a comparison to the avg loot from last vid where you used max gear minus the plats ;) good video though.
The Dino clip ahahaha
Your luck is based off loss. If you die to a player for risk you will have better luck across the board.
Dino is actually so hilarious
Its just rng, I did 2k ork kills on my pure with craws and skulled, made 75m ( no bosses killed )
Pretty sure if the game had such a mechanic it wouldnt count risk over the max cash stack but nice vid ty
Someone needs to point this out: to get somewhat accurate results to test statistical averages, your sample size should be at least 10x the "droprate", in this case - to test it properly you should do at least 22-25k kills with risk and same without to compare the results. Otherwise - insane risk and good vid brother!
'#
how much was expected to be made?
based on expected and actual, how likely was it that the claimed drop rates are untrue?
Lol nice job outing the scout nooble
I heard th Starr and though easy just take 2 inv slots and fill with max cash and noted items.
your mad mate ,that is a huge risk
definitely doesn't matter how much you're risking
Would never trust my internet connection trying this 🤣
The problem with more risk more reward is it's just a big buff to the rich and will make the gap even bigger between players.
My conspiracy is that revs get boosted defense at low health.
you now need to do 2500 dragon kills with a cheap setup and see how the loot compares.
What if it is only the skull and not using protect item? I feel like u might should try a followup with that and no 5b cash
If you have a look at the previous high risk rev videos a lot of the time I don't have protect item on as it's a waste of prayer. In quite literally every video I do get good luck, which made me go closer to this conclusion
You actually got unlucky on drops.
Average money from rev dragon is 41k 2.500 x 41,000 is about 100m
Subbed. Rhys content starting to get very good.
100% agree, my log is insane too but i go in like 100k risk lol.
if i remember correctly when revs were multi, being skulled had a better drop rate nevertheless sick video
yeah, but for a long time it wasn't public and only made public after Jed leaked it to his mates for a while.
Seems like they were right about skull
Extremely entertaining to watch! Keep up the good work man :)
I don't get how using scout bots isn't bannable.
This is a crazy video! Keep up the great work!
I’m at 10k kc but I’ve received 3 of the relics, one avarice and no weapons. Have received every other statuette though so I’m not sure. I just enjoy watching you risk my bank x10
I have 11k kc, managed to get 3 of the staffs lol.. I want a craws drop. I’ve had a bunch of emblems to and multiple ancient relics.
Is the rev cave drops active? They said the were going to update the drop table and make it more common. Is it implemented yet? Does anyone know?
Yeah it's been implemented and revs is the most active place in the wilderness. Granted it isn't insanely active though
@@RhysOSRS I know it, like 5 months ago I got 11k kc between the demons & dragons.. I haven’t touched it since. When did they buff the drops?
@@trippplecup1563 last 2 months or so I believe
Best video intro I’ve ever seen
U got more stats in 2k mills then I did in 8k