In two years, Mike Grier has moved multiple contracts that people called immovable, improved our prospect pool from #14 on The Athletic to #4, given the team the best looking jerseys since their inaugural ones, and has finally come out and called it what it is: a rebuild. The Hertl deal only truly hurt because he went to their most recent rival - but it was a much needed move and they technically got two firsts from it. They have three first round drafts in their current lineup (eklund, kunin, zadina), two of which fit the timeline of the rebuild, and a few more 1st round picks marinating in the AHL that look poised for promotion. They should draft top 3 this year, and with any luck it'll be Celebrini which would be huge, and they'll have 3 1st round picks in a deeper draft next year. If you really think GMMG is doing a shit job, you're not really paying attention. Great video Shannon, I hope this wins some of the lesser-informed fans over on Grier.
@@bklyntonw3187 I meant the Evolves, not the Cali Fin. I think its fun to use the Fin and all, but the Shark head logo will always be the best. I prefer the OG logo myself.
In Toronto, there was a Holt Renfru with Erik Karlsson ads throughout the store, and the one clerk saw my Sharks shirt and commented that EK was such a tremendous pickup. I refused to believe it then. Burns shot from the point, and Pavelski’s net front awareness and ability was key in my mind, and oh so frustrating that he couldn’t be signed later on because of that EK extension.
EK 65 was the beginning of the end for the sharks. I know he’s an amazing player, he was a lot of fun to watch last year… I never liked him on San Jose. I was always resentful that we couldn’t sign Pav’s
@SharksOregon And now he is the undertaker in Pittsburgh. It's just hilarious that Dubas saw the result of EK and Burns in SJ and said, "ooh, I want that!" and brought him to a team that already had Letang. I miss Pavs too. He just scored his 24th of the season as I type this.
@@SharksOregon They still would be fucked either way signing Pavs to a big contract wouldn't have changed much at all as they still would have had the same issue of a shit ton of massive contracts to aging players with no prospect pool.
@@wisewolftony Pav’s only wanted a 3 year contract, and then you have cap room for timo, and maybe you pick up Stutzle… I not saying Sharks are definitely in a good place without EK65, but it’s a real possibility too.
Thank you for the most levelheaded analysis of the Sharks situation and Mike Grier's moves so far. Content you are not going to find on the NHL Network. This is why your channel is the best.
@@jonah.donohue A Poverty franchise who had one of the better spans in the NHL for like 12yrs. Like what are teams no allowed to rebuild or ever struggle well if that's the case almost every single team in the NHL in a poverty franchise.
I would say that he went into the worst situation possible. There was no GM in the last 10 years who came into a worse team when it comes to contracts and assets.
@@djk679Yzerman might’ve been close because the prospect pool was absolutely barren, but he had some things to work with (Larkin, Athansiou, Mantha, and Hronek to name a few. He had some bad contracts to settle (Abdelkader), but most of the players with terrible contracts were on 1-2 year deals. San Jose had less developed players, similar quality of prospects, lack of picks, and their bad contracts were on players who had 4-8 years left. Meier was basically the only big trade chip that didn’t come attached with a contract so abysmal it killed the players value.
As a sharks fan since their inaugural season I will never say I'm not watching this team, but I'd be delusional to say to myself we're anywhere close. Just got to hope the prospects pan out and that we are smart with how we spend our cap space. Thanks for the well thought out break down on my team!
Mike Grier has been quietly doing gods work in San Jose. He inherited a Sharks team drowning in aging, overpaid, and underperforming stars on 8 year contracts (just like the current Penguins) No GM was in a tougher position than Grier when he first started. He took as season to assess the team, the talent, and created a plan. The Meier trade got the ball rolling. He has taken the emotion out, and is doing what needs to be done. A complete rebuild while selling off what needs to go. He hasn’t made exciting trades but it’s been good business while also doing right by the players by sending them to contenders. Players take notice of that. Burns, Meier, Karlsson, and now Hertl. The old guard is gone. Couture may never play again, and Vlasic has been checked out for years so we’re riding those out. In less than two years Grier has massively overhauled our prospect pool, traded Karlsson who we all thought would be impossible to move without serious retention. He’s had to pay some prices for getting rid of those contracts. Hertl would have fetched more two years ago on an expiring contract but he’s 30, had multiple knee surgeries, and the latter part of that contract won’t age well. He had to give up a little more draft capital and retain to do good on Hertl and the Sharks. Good move. Vegas is going too hard and I think they’re gonna be paying for it sooner than people think, and might not make the playoffs this year. That 1st next year could be higher than you think. Smart move. Meier trade - Good move. Muk looks good, Musty is destroying the OHL, and Zetterlund has been so good. Karlsson trade - good move. Granlund has been our MVP, and has been more valuable than Hertl this season..both as a pro example for the young players and on the Ice with the way he plays the game. Ruuta is a vet, and D has been bad this year but he’s a good mentor and still decent. Hoffman is trash but you gotta make that move. Don’t forget about that 1st that is currently top 10 protected with how bad the Pens are…they could choose to surrender the top 10 but that means the 2025 1st is unprotected and the Penguins could potentially be even worse next season. Don’t think Grier didn’t know what he was doing. The Klim Kostin trade was a sneaky good depth addition. I loved the Blackwood trade, and Kahk for Vanecek is also a quietly good trade as he has more proven upside. Zadina is having a strong second half of the season. Zetterlund has looked great. We just need some proper defense this draft, and a future goaltender in there somewhere. As hard as it has been watching a bad team us Sharks fans know it’s going to be darkest before the dawn. There is a LOT to be excited about and the future looks very bright for San Jose. Thank You Shannon for this video. People love crapping on Grier, but I don’t think they understand the depth of the workings of what he is doing. People love quick fixes, this man isn’t doing a remodel he’s stripping it down to its foundation and demolition is hard, ugly, painful work. In 5-10 years people will be talking about Mike Grier very differently.
It's worth mentioning Quentin Musty as a major piece of the Timo trade with how he's performed as a younger guy in his D+1 year, leading the OHL in points per game with 1.78 (35g, 49a, 84p in 47gp). That trade has aged into a major win for SJ and Grier.
Getting rid of the Karlsson contract with the decent return he got is something that should be celebrated. Everyone thought we would be stuck with that horrible contract for it's entirety. Thank god Pittsburgh was desperate enough, I like to think of it as our revenge for 2016.
I thought that was a off the wall deal considering his age. Wilson was win now at all costs and scrap the future. During his tenure, give him credit for landing many free agents.
This was a really good breakdown of why the wild criticism of Grier has been ridiculous. He came into a horrible situation and is doing his best to rectify it while rebuilding and doing right by the vets that didn’t sign up for this situation. That said, there are three key things I think it would have been good to consider that you didn’t mention: 1. Of all the brutal contracts that Wilson handed out in the three years before he left, low-key the worst was Evander Kane. Why? Because by re-signing Kane, the Sharks fulfilled the trade requirements to send their 2019 1st to Buffalo. That punted the 2020 1st, which ended up 3rd overall, to Ottawa in the Karlsson deal. If the Sharks hadn’t re-signed Kane, then the 2019 1st would have gone to Ottawa and then the Sharks have their 2020 1st and end up with Stutzle. 2. It’s looking like Logan Couture might sadly end up on the LITR. It’s not looking good for him coming back from his injury that’s kept him out all year, and he’s 34 years old. As a fan, I feel horrible for Logan and want him to get healthy again. But if he can’t, that’s a huge amount of cap space freed up. 3. For those criticizing the value that Grier has gotten back in his trades so far, I feel like there are two factors people are neglecting to mention. First, I think there’s a bit of a “new guy” tax for new GMs that are not part of the old boys club (Yzerman, for example). Secondly, Grier has really moved heaven and earth to get guys like Burns, Meier, Karlsson, and Hertl to destinations that they actually want to be in. The restrictive NTCs/NMCs that all those guys had meant that he couldn’t just open it up to 31 teams and say “best offer wins”. I think he’s putting in some effort to get a rep as a player’s GM, in that he’s all for giving guys fresh chances who want them and treating big names with respect. All in all, as a Sharks fan, I like Mike Grier and think the franchise is in good hands so far.
Grier has done well, dude had an impossible job and has done a good job getting us out of the majority of bad contracts and improving our prospect pool. He also has acquired a lot of 1st and 2nd round draft picks.
@@mannyoliveira776 Couture's most likely going to spend the rest of his career on LTIR (once the Sharks are spending enough to actually need to use LTIR). Edstrom's going to be a center, not a winger. The Athletic had an article around last year's draft called "The 2023 NHL Draft center crop: Who has the attributes to play the middle?" where they were judging which of the players would most likely stay as a center at the NHL level. They had Edstrom as number 3 in the top group (The “likely NHL centers” group) behind Fantilli and Nate Danielson with the next 6 as "projected NHL centers" followed by "maybe NHL centers." The Okhotiuk trade makes a bit of sense if he was looking ahead...Okhotiuk is best suited to be playing in the AHL right now but he's waivers eligible and would've been claimed. He was preventing stronger guys who are waivers exempt from getting a call up. Vanecek was essentially kicking the can down the road, historically he's been better than Kahkonen (though Kahkonen's definitely been better this year) and if he can rebound next year he can probably get a comparable return to what Kahkonen could've gotten. Assuming Kahkonen had told them he wouldn't re-sign with the team it makes sense. Studnicka absolutely made sense...at the time Sturm, Couture, and Granlund were injured, Eklund hadn't moved back to center yet, and Bordeleau had moved to the wing because even at the AHL level he wasn't having enough success at center. They needed someone for the interim to play 4C and the cost was pretty negligible (a 6th in a few years and a prospect in Raska who was more likely included due to the contract limit). Kostin I understand the idea, trade a 31 year old who isn't re-signing who is playing in the AHL for a 24 year old who was previously a 1st round pick. Sure, he's a bit overpaid, but he's just under contract next year and if it doesn't work out it only cost a 7th round pick.
Definitely agreed. It is gonna be down to the scouting and who gets picked now. I'll miss hertl, but retention of only 17%, getting a first from last year and a first this year. It definitely gets us a better deal. The karlsson trade was far better in hindsight given what we see now.
@@ColonizerChan I think we all knew (except Dubas), that EK was being showcased. Dubas really overvalues puck moving defenceman, and Mikey took full advantage. Solid move for SJ for sure.
I am huge Miami Dolphins fan, Mike's brother Chris is the GM, and if Mike is just as a good a GM as his brother the Sharks will be fine. The on thing I think the Griers do well is getting good contracts for players that give the team excellent exit options at the right time.
WTF how as a fan of both teams did I never know they were brothers lol pretty obvious now as they look like brothers. I just always thought it was ironic that both teams had a black GM named Grier and never looked into anything past that. Might seem like that means I'm a casual fan but I live and die with the Dolphins have since 2001 when I became a fan meaning I have yet to see them win a playoff game. And have been a Sharks fan since around the same time and I'm such a fan that despite how fucking dreadful they have been especially this season I have watched pretty much every game save for a couple where I decided to watch the Toronto raptors game instead.
@@wisewolftony Its even crazier when you realize their dad was also a scout, coach, and exec for the Phins! I think there was an interview he was taking one kid to football practice and the other to hockey practice!
U do know that Grier in Miami hasn't won a playoff game in his 8 yrs, and u think he's done a good job, ??it's thinking like that, why the dolphins haven't won a playoff gm since 2000,
Hey Hockey Guy, I am so glad I found your channel. Most fans tend to be very emotional and knee jerkish-ish when they react to their teams and I am not saying that you don't get upset over moves from your team from time to time. Your a fan. That said, really agree with you. Fans are often quick to criticize without considering the bigger picture. It's somewhat like politics in that often times we are reacting to situations without full information. All we have regarding the Sharks is the result of the trades made by Grier and the players acquired. We don't know what teams were offering in any given trade or how many teams were even willing to entertain a given trade. Given that lack of information from behind the curtain it is pretty foolish to second guess the Wizard of Oz behind his curtain pulling levers! I also completely agree that former GM Doug Wilson was totally committed to the core he built even when it was reaching the point of it being not a great idea long term. That was probably the hall mark of DW's tenure. He was always willing to make a deal to help the Sharks push for another run to the detriment of our prospects pool. Personally, (I made this point during the trade talks rumored between Pittsburgh and the Sharks in the off season) if you believe in your core then make whatever trades you can to give those guys the best shot to win a cup for you. If you don't believe in your core anymore than start breaking it up and begin the arduous process of rebuilding a new core. It sounds simple but, those of us who have been watching hockey for a bit have witnessed how tough it is to tear your hockey club down to the foundation and start rebuilding everything from the ground up. I also agree about how attached we become to certain players. It's tough to be a fan because at the end of the day it is still a business and moves will be made that are upsetting. while I was excited to get Joe Thornton I was crushed by the loss of Marco Sturm and Brad Stuart. It's a business and you can't get something for nothing usually. If you make mostly good moves it will be a great decision for the franchise. If you make about as many bad moves as you do good ones...well that process will cost several people their jobs and probably turn into a bit of a nightmare for the franchise before you finally realize enough quality players to rebuild a new core (Edmonton comes to mind). Its a tough world professional sports. It's performance based/outcomes based so if you fail to perform well...there are a lot of scalps hanging up around the league in ownership offices of front office personnel, coaching staffs and players who couldn't make a franchise go. Still as somebody recently remarked on the Sharks (I think it was Vlassic) the worst day in the NHL is still better than doing something else for a living. Thanks again Hockey Guy and I hope this finds you well man. Cheers, Peter St. John Clovis, CA
And it also did right by a long term beloved player - like Burns, he's been sent to a contender that he had the final vote on. I think that will come into play later down the road with players understanding that Grier respects them.
The Pavelski situation is point on. I remember there was a lot talk from sharks fans not resigning him and he is to old. What a disaster this decision was. He brought us to the finals as the captain. He is a real leader
I was admittedly on the EK train at the time. Boy was I wrong. Now he's Pittsburghs problem. I would love for Pavs to sign on a farewell tour when hes ready and teach some of the young guys how to overachieve.
Great post, Shannon. Thank you for the deep dive. I totally agree with you about the trade perceptions. You hear that all the time on sports radio..."We ought to trade Player X to Team Y and get blah, blah, blah." Yeah, okay...what makes you think anybody is going to take that trade? That kind of thinking always presents unrealistic perceptions of what other COMPETING GMs are willing to accept. And being a long-time Sharks fan, I think the current team is even less talented than this team was in its first year. It's just bleak. I like what the team is doing: accepting the reality that a total tear-down is impossible to avoid if the team is to have ANY future at all. Your analysis is spot-on and fair. Well done.
I feel for Mike Grier in terms of the mess that he has to clean up, but I'm actually also sympathetic to Doug Wilson, the decaying contracts that he handed out, and what happened to his Sharks. It's a dumpster fire that was directly caused by nearly-psychotic levels of ambition. So many damned years where San Jose would be one of the best teams in the league, only to fall just short of the hardware for over a decade, must've ate into his rational state of mind. I think it would've for just about anyone, including myself.
@@85blutch And what use exactly would those aging good players be to the Sharks right now? Spend the remaining years of their contracts helping the Sharks be 29th in the league rather than 31st? The returns are entirely dictated by what teams are offering, and nobody is going to offer much more for players who are a) injury prone, b) overpaid with years left in their contracts and c) over 30. Take Karlsson for example. How much would you think a team would pay for him right now? Absolutely nothing. You'd probably have to pay a team to take him, and his regression was entirely predictable and will only get worse. So by being able to ship his contract off, AND getting something in return, was a massive W for the Sharks.
@@matthias893 Plus doesn't he just have one season left on that deal. So not really any point in even trading him as not like his contract is gonna hurt the team for years to come like EK and Hertl contracts were. In fact the Sharks would probably have to give a team something just to take Vlasic so why give up some asset just to get out of a contract that your gonna be out of the following season. At best maybe Vlasic can help the younger defensemen on the team learn some things. Yea he's washed now but doesn't change the fact that for almost a decade he was one of the best in the league so not like he can't pass on his knowledge to the younger guys.
@Peksisarvinen Karlsson deal was OK for SJS; the Hertl one, however, is absolutely dreadful: mediocre return for a star player signed long term (going to be REALLY bad if Edstom doesn't make it and becomes another Erik Brannstrom...); trading with a rival team; no retention spots left to trade Barabanov and Granlund next year - which makes it waaaay harder to move them.
You actually missed how Grier flipped Lorentz to Florida for Duclair after acquiring the former player in the Brent Burns trade. After flipping Duclair this TDL, the man basically flipped Burns and a 2026 7th for a 2023 3rd, 2024 3rd and Makiniemi.
Teardown isn't truly done yet, but may not be fully possible. Sadly, Couture may never play again. Vlasic is truly untradable. I don't see him having a 100 point season and suddenly getting tins of league interest.
Awesome Video! Still miss Pavs and will cheer for Dallas as my second team so I can see him win!! I was not on the "Grier is terrible" bandwagon and this makes me like him more. I wish Hertl could have gone out of the conference but, as you say, that might have been the best offer. Here is hoping 5 years from now, that first round pick we got from Vegas scores the game winning goal against them in the conference finals.
For the Brent Burns trade there are some interesting additional details: The Sharks received a 3rd round pick from Carolina (#94) but ended up trading them back the pick and a 4th rounder (#100) for an earlier 3rd rounder. They used that pick on Brandon Svoboda (#71). The Sharks also traded Lorentz and a 5th round pick to Florida for Anthony Duclair, who they flipped at the deadline for a 2024 3rd and Jack Thompson. So the Sharks end up trading: Brent Burns ($2.72M retained over 3 years) Lane Pedersen 4th round pick 2023 (#100) 5th round pick 2025 And they received: Eetu Makiniemi Jack Thompson Brandon Svoboda 3rd round pick 2023 (#71) 3rd round pick 2024
Great video, Shannon! Thank you. I followed the Sharks from 1991-2019. You filled in a lot of holes since then. Perhaps the Sharks can turn it around soon.
I think Granlund been strongest and most consist SJ player this year. Zetterlund been good too, but i think Granlund been bit stronger. Ofc as Granlund fan i am bit biased. I hope Granlund and Kunin can stay in SJ long and be one of your leaders when SJ return to playoffs. Was so happy to see SJ giving them Alternate Captains jobs.
On the Hill trade we gave a second rounder for him 6 months earlier then trade him for a 4th. As a Sharks fan we had some faith in Grier until the Hertle Trade.
The set up Wilson put in place with Karl, Goose etc. was genius however too many key players injured sunk that ship. Boughner was a 3 season chemistry killer. Pavs said he had many boxes to tick along with money/time and Dallas ticked those boxes. I loved Hertl but the trade makes sense. He wanted it and on paper he is a 30 year old, reoccurring knee issues, underscoring lately, this season and last heavy minus and the $contract. I have been on this Sharks rollercoaster since the early 90s I am really looking forward to who over the seasons will be my next favorite players
Sharks fan here. THANK YOU! Very accurate reporting. One minor note: Joe Will (interim GM) was the one who signed Hertl to a long term deal while DW was on medical leave. Joe Will is still with the org as an Assistant GM. And Mike Grier has never said the Sharks don’t need a rebuild, he’s always suggested that the timeline is adjusting. DW used to say they weren’t rebuilding, they just need a retooling.
Your points are well made, and I feel similar in most regards. My concern with the Hertl trade is largely that I feel you do want some 'glue' guys to help build the culture, connect with the fans, and help the young kids develop and Hertl ticked all these boxes. Also, by taking a 2025 pick, that indicates to me this rebuild is going to be longer - not 3 yrs, but more like 5+. My other concern is the Sharks development program. In the last 10 years, the sharks have developed exactly 8 players with careers longer than 100 games (Ferraro, Gregor, Gambrell, Meier, Balcers, Goldobin, Lebanc, Mueller). They've also missed on several first round picks (Wiesblatt, Merkley, Roy). Now that's something that Grier might already be remedying, but until I see evidence of change, I'm skeptical and concerned. Keep up the good videos, and it was great to see you on the sharks broadcast too!
With regards to the Sharks lack of development, a big part of that is where the Sharks were selecting. You're excluding Norris (I'm assuming since he was traded during the development process), but all of the top 20 picks in that span have reached that mark or will most likely (Eklund the team chose to be patient with but, barring catastrophic injury, he'll reach that point and Smith almost definitely gets there too but the Sharks haven't played 100 games since he was drafted). Aside from them, Merkley at 21 was a bust but he was always considered a high-risk, high-reward player and they were selecting him because they so rarely got the chance to draft high end talent with where they were selecting/trading their picks away so it was worth taking the gamble. Roy was a 2nd rounder at 31st and he might have been successful but he dealt with a ton of injuries, and Weisblatt was a bit of a stretch where he was drafted and was the final pick of the 1st round. Bordeleau at 38th in 2020 is currently playing NHL games and they've been patient with him, he likely stays up now that the TDL is over and hopefully remains up next season, but he's shown promise of reaching the 100 game threshold. There are several other young guys in the system who look promising right now but it's too soon to tell (Gushchin, Musty, Havelid, Cagnoni, Furlong, etc). As it is now, the Sharks are drafting much earlier. They're all but guaranteed a top 4 pick this year (doubtful they catch Anaheim who are 10 points ahead of them and have 5 more regulation wins and 7 more regulation/overtime wins), Pittsburgh's pick will either be right around 10 this year or it gets pushed to next year where I doubt it'll be much different. The more and earlier selections you have the likelier you are to develop them well.
Great video! Everything really started to snowball after the 2016 Cup loss. Bad, long-term contracts started. Moves just to hold on to being relevant in the post season. Wilson tanked the Sharks. Grier has done a phenomenal job grabbing the shovel and start the process of digging San Jose out. Wilson had 20 years to mold the Sharks into "his" team, how about we give Mike Grier some time to clean house and show us the team he wants to put on the ice. Still a few years to go.
Great video. I think you should've added a 1 min talk track about the effect of EK65's contract on the Sharks too. Not only did Vlasic, Thornton age poorly, Burns showing decline in SJ before going to CAR and rebooting, we also lost Pavs, Nyqvist, and Dillon, who all continue to be good producers. It was a tough decision at the time so I dont fault Doug Wilson per se, especially anyone here is nuts if they said "I knew for sure that Pavelski would continue to be a top NHL player as he nears 40". The decision was made though, didn't work out, and thus the painful two years of being bad but not admitting we are in a rebuild until we traded Meier, commenced.
i dont hate the moves hes made, but the EA franchise mode GM in me hates the idea of paying retention for multiple years, i understand sometimes it needs to be done tho
Great analysis. Grier has done what had to be done. For this to work and build a quality team they need to draft and develop better. Have been poor at this the last 5 years. It’s been brutal at times but have enjoyed the season.
Loved Hertl and Meier, but it made since to trade them. Probably will have to eat the Vlasic and Couture contracts, but once those are up hopefully (big hope) they will be pushing for playoffs again
Hertl underperformed because the team around him is wildly different than it was when he re-signed. Looking at that extension in hindsight isn't exactly fair
GMMG has been doing amazing for us. So glad he became our GM and the future he’s building for us in SJ. DW was amazing for over 20 years but he definitely made some rough decisions towards the end in the hope to stay a contender forever
I would think another benefit of the cap space the have is if a young good player or one who has the potential to be is on the market they can get them and help speed up the rebuild.
Thanks for a great analysis on the state of the Sharks. Although the rebuild will continue to be painful, at least they have a clear direction moving forward. I just wish they would have won at least one Cup during the glory years.
Thank you for doing this. I agree with you on most part. SJ was not very attractive for free agents in the past. Thats a problem. I think we a have to built our team mostly through the draft. The addition of the 1st rounders will help. Now Grier has to hit on those.
The hate is unreal for Grier. Our prospect pool is greatly improved under him and we needed to tear it down. Im hoping were good in 3 years. Unfortunately its just gonna take some time.
As a Sharks fan, I know there is light at the end of the tunnel. But it is a long tunnel and right now that light is looking pretty dim. I know we had to trade Hertl to get that contract off the books but I think a better deal could have been made in the offseason/ before the draft. Also anyone else but Vegas. It's going to be rough seeing him in that ugly gold helmet for the first time back at the Shark Tank.
San Jose has acquired a lot of prospects under Grier that have filled in a lot of what we didn't have from the 2017, 2018 and 2020 drafts. Maybe we didn't draft Ty Emberson or Jack Thompson, but they're here now. Not elite talent, but its filling out the depth for the future nicely.
Grier's dominating. Reading Sharks fans' takes after the Timo trade was scary though. Some takes so bad they could only really be explained by pretty extreme... biases... 😓Then after two months of Zetterlund/Okhotiuk/Mukhamadullin they'd forgotten all about it.
Love this vid. Grier has been exceeding my expectations considering the mess hes had to work with. Everything started to fall apart when DW decided Karlsson was more important than Pavs (who will always be my captain) but Grier has embraced what he has and made the best of it. Super stoked on Musty too
MG has done a decent job. 2022-23. 29th NHL team and bottom 5 prospect pool. 2023-24. 32th NHL team and pool is now top 5. The cap can be used as a weapon and that is under valued. At least next year the bad contracts are for serviceable players (Vlasic, Rutta, and Granlund). Hoffman and Lebanc were a waste of $10m.
at 1:15 ... the interim GM that signed the Hertl deal, Joe Will, wasn't fired. He's still with the organization. Doug Wilson wasn't fired either. Usually, you're spot on, Shannon, but you were way off here.
the vocal fans on social media are often very out of touch with reality when they dogpile on a player/team/gm. Glad THG is here to ad some sanity and balance to the conversation.
In my opinion mike Grier has done a tremendous job so far rebuilding this team by getting rid of a lot of our horrendous contract and also drafting really well. A lot of these young guys have really bright future and I see the sharks making the playoff in 3-4 years and being in contention for awhile if we keep that young core
Jayden Perron is not a sharks prospect, that pick was traded back to Carolina funny enough, and Carolina selected Jayden Perron. San Jose traded up to get Brandon Svoboda
The issue with Adin Hill at the time was also that they had three goalies under contract between him, Reimer, and Kahkonen. Considering the volatility of the position, there's no guarantee anyone wanted the other two guys at the time. Reimer was wildly inconsistent from one year to the next and getting older and Kahkonen was seemingly unlikely to be moved so soon after being acquired and performing well enough. As for Vlasic, he's likely a buyout candidate if they want to get rid of him. I don't think he had trade value even at 50%. They also have a logjam on defense where they need to move guys to open up spots to allow guys like Mukhamadullin and Thrun to get into the lineup and develop more consistently. Couture is at this point untradeable. Until and if he can actually heal from his injury, he's not going anywhere so they will be eating his contract. The absolute best case scenario is that he heals up this offseason (not a guarantee because he had this injury last offseason and it bled into this season, got aggravated, and is now causing him to miss the rest of it), plays all of next season and then becomes tradeable with a retention slot freeing up and Couture then only having two years to go. Those are very long odds so expect him to be here and probably injured for the rest of his deal. His injury is pretty gnarly.
A couple of corrections. You were talking about not knowing how Perron would work out, the Sharks actually traded that pick back to Carolina along with pick 100 to move up to 71 and take Brandon Svoboda. Also the Hertl contract was signed by an interim GM who is still in the organization - Doug Wilson was on medical leave for several months prior to the signing so Joe Will was the one who actually signed it. Whether or not Wilson would've offered the same deal is another question, but that deal wasn't signed by him (regardless of what capfriendly says). We can also quibble over this, but Wilson wasn't fired. Several months after stepping away temporarily for medical reasons he decided to permanently step down. It's possible the team allowed him to save a bit of face by saying it was mutual (though I really don't understand the need to do so) or that they would've fired him had he been healthy, but I don't think he was technically fired.
Also you were talking about the Namestnikov trade implying it wasn't a great move because he's been good on the Jets. The Sharks traded Eyssimont who they'd gotten off waivers for free for Namestnikov who was on an expiring contract and got a 4th for him 2 days later. Namestnikov had no ties to San Jose in the 2 days and 0 games played, it wasn't particularly likely he was going to develop enough to want to re-sign by staying in San Jose for the last 20 games or so. They essentially got a 4th round pick for nothing. Admittedly that 4th round pick likely won't end up reaching the NHL since most of them don't, but we won't know that for probably around 4-5 years at least (it's a 2025 4th).
Your comment that rebuilding teams should have lots of cap space made me think of Montreal, which does not. How did they get to a situation where they still have the questionable contracts of a team on the way down, while also having the extra draft picks and prospects of a team on the way up? What was Marc Bergevin doing?
They said to Grier at his hiring "Take the team to the top, here's a shovel"
As a sharks Fan, i think he is doing a great job drafting and cleaning up Doug Wilsons mess.
In two years, Mike Grier has moved multiple contracts that people called immovable, improved our prospect pool from #14 on The Athletic to #4, given the team the best looking jerseys since their inaugural ones, and has finally come out and called it what it is: a rebuild. The Hertl deal only truly hurt because he went to their most recent rival - but it was a much needed move and they technically got two firsts from it. They have three first round drafts in their current lineup (eklund, kunin, zadina), two of which fit the timeline of the rebuild, and a few more 1st round picks marinating in the AHL that look poised for promotion. They should draft top 3 this year, and with any luck it'll be Celebrini which would be huge, and they'll have 3 1st round picks in a deeper draft next year. If you really think GMMG is doing a shit job, you're not really paying attention. Great video Shannon, I hope this wins some of the lesser-informed fans over on Grier.
I miss the Shark biting the stick:(
@@bklyntonw3187 I meant the Evolves, not the Cali Fin. I think its fun to use the Fin and all, but the Shark head logo will always be the best. I prefer the OG logo myself.
@@bklyntonw3187 That's just the third jersey being used for two months of consecutive home games. After March 31st they go back to their mains.
San Jose has never drafted 1st overall. It’s about time it happened, but one caveat: Anaheim has never drafted 1st overall, either. 🤔
@@GizmoBeach true.. but the ducks have a cup and we do not. Tie breaker: we get Celebrini
"Pavelski doesn't age"
And to this day as a Sharks fan, I miss Pav's.
In Toronto, there was a Holt Renfru with Erik Karlsson ads throughout the store, and the one clerk saw my Sharks shirt and commented that EK was such a tremendous pickup. I refused to believe it then. Burns shot from the point, and Pavelski’s net front awareness and ability was key in my mind, and oh so frustrating that he couldn’t be signed later on because of that EK extension.
EK 65 was the beginning of the end for the sharks. I know he’s an amazing player, he was a lot of fun to watch last year… I never liked him on San Jose. I was always resentful that we couldn’t sign Pav’s
@SharksOregon And now he is the undertaker in Pittsburgh. It's just hilarious that Dubas saw the result of EK and Burns in SJ and said, "ooh, I want that!" and brought him to a team that already had Letang.
I miss Pavs too. He just scored his 24th of the season as I type this.
@@SharksOregon They still would be fucked either way signing Pavs to a big contract wouldn't have changed much at all as they still would have had the same issue of a shit ton of massive contracts to aging players with no prospect pool.
@@wisewolftony Pav’s only wanted a 3 year contract, and then you have cap room for timo, and maybe you pick up Stutzle… I not saying Sharks are definitely in a good place without EK65, but it’s a real possibility too.
I love these types of videos, just analyzing past trades and gm histories
Okay cool
@@tyrous1743get a life bro all your comments are douchey youre a d1 hater
Thank you for the most levelheaded analysis of the Sharks situation and Mike Grier's moves so far. Content you are not going to find on the NHL Network. This is why your channel is the best.
Just going to sit back, cross my fingers, and hope the Sharks will be respectable in 3-5 years...
I call that false hope. San Jose not going to be around in the next 10 years. Poverty franchise
Are you from Valencia ?!...
@@jonah.donohue A Poverty franchise who had one of the better spans in the NHL for like 12yrs. Like what are teams no allowed to rebuild or ever struggle well if that's the case almost every single team in the NHL in a poverty franchise.
@@wisewolftonyThey had a massive 15 year window and didn't win the cup once, biggest chokers in the league
@@wisewolftonyIf SJ is a poverty franchise then so are 25 others lol. Not every team is Toronto, NY, Boston, Vegas, etc
I would say that he went into the worst situation possible. There was no GM in the last 10 years who came into a worse team when it comes to contracts and assets.
The flip side is he gets to build a team the way he wants to, if they give him the time and authority, with minimal expectations.
Steve Yzerman is probably close in Detroit
@@djk679Yzerman might’ve been close because the prospect pool was absolutely barren, but he had some things to work with (Larkin, Athansiou, Mantha, and Hronek to name a few. He had some bad contracts to settle (Abdelkader), but most of the players with terrible contracts were on 1-2 year deals. San Jose had less developed players, similar quality of prospects, lack of picks, and their bad contracts were on players who had 4-8 years left. Meier was basically the only big trade chip that didn’t come attached with a contract so abysmal it killed the players value.
As a sharks fan since their inaugural season I will never say I'm not watching this team, but I'd be delusional to say to myself we're anywhere close. Just got to hope the prospects pan out and that we are smart with how we spend our cap space. Thanks for the well thought out break down on my team!
Mike Grier has been quietly doing gods work in San Jose. He inherited a Sharks team drowning in aging, overpaid, and underperforming stars on 8 year contracts (just like the current Penguins) No GM was in a tougher position than Grier when he first started. He took as season to assess the team, the talent, and created a plan. The Meier trade got the ball rolling. He has taken the emotion out, and is doing what needs to be done. A complete rebuild while selling off what needs to go. He hasn’t made exciting trades but it’s been good business while also doing right by the players by sending them to contenders. Players take notice of that. Burns, Meier, Karlsson, and now Hertl. The old guard is gone. Couture may never play again, and Vlasic has been checked out for years so we’re riding those out. In less than two years Grier has massively overhauled our prospect pool, traded Karlsson who we all thought would be impossible to move without serious retention. He’s had to pay some prices for getting rid of those contracts. Hertl would have fetched more two years ago on an expiring contract but he’s 30, had multiple knee surgeries, and the latter part of that contract won’t age well. He had to give up a little more draft capital and retain to do good on Hertl and the Sharks. Good move. Vegas is going too hard and I think they’re gonna be paying for it sooner than people think, and might not make the playoffs this year. That 1st next year could be higher than you think. Smart move. Meier trade - Good move. Muk looks good, Musty is destroying the OHL, and Zetterlund has been so good. Karlsson trade - good move. Granlund has been our MVP, and has been more valuable than Hertl this season..both as a pro example for the young players and on the Ice with the way he plays the game. Ruuta is a vet, and D has been bad this year but he’s a good mentor and still decent. Hoffman is trash but you gotta make that move. Don’t forget about that 1st that is currently top 10 protected with how bad the Pens are…they could choose to surrender the top 10 but that means the 2025 1st is unprotected and the Penguins could potentially be even worse next season. Don’t think Grier didn’t know what he was doing. The Klim Kostin trade was a sneaky good depth addition. I loved the Blackwood trade, and Kahk for Vanecek is also a quietly good trade as he has more proven upside. Zadina is having a strong second half of the season. Zetterlund has looked great. We just need some proper defense this draft, and a future goaltender in there somewhere. As hard as it has been watching a bad team us Sharks fans know it’s going to be darkest before the dawn. There is a LOT to be excited about and the future looks very bright for San Jose.
Thank You Shannon for this video. People love crapping on Grier, but I don’t think they understand the depth of the workings of what he is doing. People love quick fixes, this man isn’t doing a remodel he’s stripping it down to its foundation and demolition is hard, ugly, painful work. In 5-10 years people will be talking about Mike Grier very differently.
It's worth mentioning Quentin Musty as a major piece of the Timo trade with how he's performed as a younger guy in his D+1 year, leading the OHL in points per game with 1.78 (35g, 49a, 84p in 47gp). That trade has aged into a major win for SJ and Grier.
Moving that 11.5 million Karlsson contract was a huge win and some of those albatross deals off the books.
Getting rid of the Karlsson contract with the decent return he got is something that should be celebrated. Everyone thought we would be stuck with that horrible contract for it's entirety. Thank god Pittsburgh was desperate enough, I like to think of it as our revenge for 2016.
I thought that was a off the wall deal considering his age. Wilson was win now at all costs and scrap the future. During his tenure, give him credit for landing many free agents.
@@operasinger2126 Wilson is the biggest reason why GM's add protection on their draft picks so much.
The problem with Grier is that he stepped into a tough situation. San Jose needs a complete rebuild, similar to Detroit.
Awesome work as always! Thanks for showing love to the Sharks, it’s these types of videos that keep us entertained through the rebuild. Take care!
This was a really good breakdown of why the wild criticism of Grier has been ridiculous. He came into a horrible situation and is doing his best to rectify it while rebuilding and doing right by the vets that didn’t sign up for this situation. That said, there are three key things I think it would have been good to consider that you didn’t mention:
1. Of all the brutal contracts that Wilson handed out in the three years before he left, low-key the worst was Evander Kane. Why? Because by re-signing Kane, the Sharks fulfilled the trade requirements to send their 2019 1st to Buffalo. That punted the 2020 1st, which ended up 3rd overall, to Ottawa in the Karlsson deal. If the Sharks hadn’t re-signed Kane, then the 2019 1st would have gone to Ottawa and then the Sharks have their 2020 1st and end up with Stutzle.
2. It’s looking like Logan Couture might sadly end up on the LITR. It’s not looking good for him coming back from his injury that’s kept him out all year, and he’s 34 years old. As a fan, I feel horrible for Logan and want him to get healthy again. But if he can’t, that’s a huge amount of cap space freed up.
3. For those criticizing the value that Grier has gotten back in his trades so far, I feel like there are two factors people are neglecting to mention. First, I think there’s a bit of a “new guy” tax for new GMs that are not part of the old boys club (Yzerman, for example). Secondly, Grier has really moved heaven and earth to get guys like Burns, Meier, Karlsson, and Hertl to destinations that they actually want to be in. The restrictive NTCs/NMCs that all those guys had meant that he couldn’t just open it up to 31 teams and say “best offer wins”. I think he’s putting in some effort to get a rep as a player’s GM, in that he’s all for giving guys fresh chances who want them and treating big names with respect.
All in all, as a Sharks fan, I like Mike Grier and think the franchise is in good hands so far.
Grier has done well, dude had an impossible job and has done a good job getting us out of the majority of bad contracts and improving our prospect pool. He also has acquired a lot of 1st and 2nd round draft picks.
@@mannyoliveira776 Couture's most likely going to spend the rest of his career on LTIR (once the Sharks are spending enough to actually need to use LTIR).
Edstrom's going to be a center, not a winger. The Athletic had an article around last year's draft called "The 2023 NHL Draft center crop: Who has the attributes to play the middle?" where they were judging which of the players would most likely stay as a center at the NHL level. They had Edstrom as number 3 in the top group (The “likely NHL centers” group) behind Fantilli and Nate Danielson with the next 6 as "projected NHL centers" followed by "maybe NHL centers."
The Okhotiuk trade makes a bit of sense if he was looking ahead...Okhotiuk is best suited to be playing in the AHL right now but he's waivers eligible and would've been claimed. He was preventing stronger guys who are waivers exempt from getting a call up.
Vanecek was essentially kicking the can down the road, historically he's been better than Kahkonen (though Kahkonen's definitely been better this year) and if he can rebound next year he can probably get a comparable return to what Kahkonen could've gotten. Assuming Kahkonen had told them he wouldn't re-sign with the team it makes sense.
Studnicka absolutely made sense...at the time Sturm, Couture, and Granlund were injured, Eklund hadn't moved back to center yet, and Bordeleau had moved to the wing because even at the AHL level he wasn't having enough success at center. They needed someone for the interim to play 4C and the cost was pretty negligible (a 6th in a few years and a prospect in Raska who was more likely included due to the contract limit).
Kostin I understand the idea, trade a 31 year old who isn't re-signing who is playing in the AHL for a 24 year old who was previously a 1st round pick. Sure, he's a bit overpaid, but he's just under contract next year and if it doesn't work out it only cost a 7th round pick.
@@mannyoliveira776deserves an A at least for nothing more than only havin to retain 13% of karlsson's contract
@@mannyoliveira776Did anybody actually think Hill would be a possible Vezina winner at the time? I sure didn't.
Definitely agreed. It is gonna be down to the scouting and who gets picked now.
I'll miss hertl, but retention of only 17%, getting a first from last year and a first this year. It definitely gets us a better deal.
The karlsson trade was far better in hindsight given what we see now.
@@ColonizerChan I think we all knew (except Dubas), that EK was being showcased.
Dubas really overvalues puck moving defenceman, and Mikey took full advantage. Solid move for SJ for sure.
I am huge Miami Dolphins fan, Mike's brother Chris is the GM, and if Mike is just as a good a GM as his brother the Sharks will be fine. The on thing I think the Griers do well is getting good contracts for players that give the team excellent exit options at the right time.
WTF how as a fan of both teams did I never know they were brothers lol pretty obvious now as they look like brothers. I just always thought it was ironic that both teams had a black GM named Grier and never looked into anything past that. Might seem like that means I'm a casual fan but I live and die with the Dolphins have since 2001 when I became a fan meaning I have yet to see them win a playoff game. And have been a Sharks fan since around the same time and I'm such a fan that despite how fucking dreadful they have been especially this season I have watched pretty much every game save for a couple where I decided to watch the Toronto raptors game instead.
@@wisewolftony Its even crazier when you realize their dad was also a scout, coach, and exec for the Phins! I think there was an interview he was taking one kid to football practice and the other to hockey practice!
U do know that Grier in Miami hasn't won a playoff game in his 8 yrs, and u think he's done a good job, ??it's thinking like that, why the dolphins haven't won a playoff gm since 2000,
Hey Hockey Guy,
I am so glad I found your channel. Most fans tend to be very emotional and knee jerkish-ish when they react to their teams and I am not saying that you don't get upset over moves from your team from time to time. Your a fan. That said, really agree with you. Fans are often quick to criticize without considering the bigger picture. It's somewhat like politics in that often times we are reacting to situations without full information. All we have regarding the Sharks is the result of the trades made by Grier and the players acquired. We don't know what teams were offering in any given trade or how many teams were even willing to entertain a given trade. Given that lack of information from behind the curtain it is pretty foolish to second guess the Wizard of Oz behind his curtain pulling levers!
I also completely agree that former GM Doug Wilson was totally committed to the core he built even when it was reaching the point of it being not a great idea long term. That was probably the hall mark of DW's tenure. He was always willing to make a deal to help the Sharks push for another run to the detriment of our prospects pool. Personally, (I made this point during the trade talks rumored between Pittsburgh and the Sharks in the off season) if you believe in your core then make whatever trades you can to give those guys the best shot to win a cup for you. If you don't believe in your core anymore than start breaking it up and begin the arduous process of rebuilding a new core. It sounds simple but, those of us who have been watching hockey for a bit have witnessed how tough it is to tear your hockey club down to the foundation and start rebuilding everything from the ground up.
I also agree about how attached we become to certain players. It's tough to be a fan because at the end of the day it is still a business and moves will be made that are upsetting. while I was excited to get Joe Thornton I was crushed by the loss of Marco Sturm and Brad Stuart. It's a business and you can't get something for nothing usually.
If you make mostly good moves it will be a great decision for the franchise. If you make about as many bad moves as you do good ones...well that process will cost several people their jobs and probably turn into a bit of a nightmare for the franchise before you finally realize enough quality players to rebuild a new core (Edmonton comes to mind). Its a tough world professional sports. It's performance based/outcomes based so if you fail to perform well...there are a lot of scalps hanging up around the league in ownership offices of front office personnel, coaching staffs and players who couldn't make a franchise go.
Still as somebody recently remarked on the Sharks (I think it was Vlassic) the worst day in the NHL is still better than doing something else for a living. Thanks again Hockey Guy and I hope this finds you well man.
Cheers,
Peter St. John
Clovis, CA
Great Video. I saw a post today describing the Hertl deal as a cheaper buy out that the got assets for.
And it also did right by a long term beloved player - like Burns, he's been sent to a contender that he had the final vote on. I think that will come into play later down the road with players understanding that Grier respects them.
Amazing insight! Always love your videos. Keep up the good work!
Thanks dude! Life long sharks fan, this has helped me process my suffering and trauma 💙
The Pavelski situation is point on. I remember there was a lot talk from sharks fans not resigning him and he is to old. What a disaster this decision was. He brought us to the finals as the captain. He is a real leader
They accidentally did him a huge favor.
I was admittedly on the EK train at the time. Boy was I wrong. Now he's Pittsburghs problem. I would love for Pavs to sign on a farewell tour when hes ready and teach some of the young guys how to overachieve.
@@progsharkek would’ve been fine if his Contract wasn’t 11.5 million I love EK65 but that was overpay! I can’t blame him for taking the offer though!
Excellent analysis. Top notch research. Thank you for your hard work! Love your channel.
Great post, Shannon. Thank you for the deep dive. I totally agree with you about the trade perceptions. You hear that all the time on sports radio..."We ought to trade Player X to Team Y and get blah, blah, blah." Yeah, okay...what makes you think anybody is going to take that trade? That kind of thinking always presents unrealistic perceptions of what other COMPETING GMs are willing to accept. And being a long-time Sharks fan, I think the current team is even less talented than this team was in its first year. It's just bleak. I like what the team is doing: accepting the reality that a total tear-down is impossible to avoid if the team is to have ANY future at all. Your analysis is spot-on and fair. Well done.
I feel for Mike Grier in terms of the mess that he has to clean up, but I'm actually also sympathetic to Doug Wilson, the decaying contracts that he handed out, and what happened to his Sharks. It's a dumpster fire that was directly caused by nearly-psychotic levels of ambition. So many damned years where San Jose would be one of the best teams in the league, only to fall just short of the hardware for over a decade, must've ate into his rational state of mind. I think it would've for just about anyone, including myself.
It certainly did a number on us Sharks fans
as a sharks fan thank you for this video:) i don’t feel it’s the sharks get coverage toooo often
Excellent summary of the Sharks' rebuild, THG!
My fav type of videos
Being able to move out Burns, Karlsson, and Hertl is almost magic. If they manage to move out Vlasic somehow, that would be true magic.
Honestly, we're going to need him so we can hit the Salary floor....
Ah yes, getting rid of good players for bad returns, so much magic.
@@85blutch And what use exactly would those aging good players be to the Sharks right now? Spend the remaining years of their contracts helping the Sharks be 29th in the league rather than 31st? The returns are entirely dictated by what teams are offering, and nobody is going to offer much more for players who are a) injury prone, b) overpaid with years left in their contracts and c) over 30.
Take Karlsson for example. How much would you think a team would pay for him right now? Absolutely nothing. You'd probably have to pay a team to take him, and his regression was entirely predictable and will only get worse. So by being able to ship his contract off, AND getting something in return, was a massive W for the Sharks.
@@matthias893 Plus doesn't he just have one season left on that deal. So not really any point in even trading him as not like his contract is gonna hurt the team for years to come like EK and Hertl contracts were. In fact the Sharks would probably have to give a team something just to take Vlasic so why give up some asset just to get out of a contract that your gonna be out of the following season. At best maybe Vlasic can help the younger defensemen on the team learn some things. Yea he's washed now but doesn't change the fact that for almost a decade he was one of the best in the league so not like he can't pass on his knowledge to the younger guys.
@Peksisarvinen
Karlsson deal was OK for SJS; the Hertl one, however, is absolutely dreadful: mediocre return for a star player signed long term (going to be REALLY bad if Edstom doesn't make it and becomes another Erik Brannstrom...); trading with a rival team; no retention spots left to trade Barabanov and Granlund next year - which makes it waaaay harder to move them.
You actually missed how Grier flipped Lorentz to Florida for Duclair after acquiring the former player in the Brent Burns trade. After flipping Duclair this TDL, the man basically flipped Burns and a 2026 7th for a 2023 3rd, 2024 3rd and Makiniemi.
and Jack Thompson, who projects as a top 4 D
What a call. I forgot about that move. Well done.
Very good analysis. Thanks, THG!!!
I miss Pavs in San Jose. Glad he’s doing well in Dallas.
it’s like when you grow up and mom makes you throw away some toys. i’m gonna hate it but to grow i need to do it
Yay my team is mentioned in a video!
You nailed it. Wilson saddled the Sharks with huge contracts.
Wow loving the sharks content from the hockey guy.
Be careful people might start thinking you’re a Sharks fan Shannon.
He did a good job with the teardown, lets see the rebuild.
Teardown isn't truly done yet, but may not be fully possible. Sadly, Couture may never play again. Vlasic is truly untradable. I don't see him having a 100 point season and suddenly getting tins of league interest.
We need an update on this video after we won the draft lottery!!
Awesome Video! Still miss Pavs and will cheer for Dallas as my second team so I can see him win!! I was not on the "Grier is terrible" bandwagon and this makes me like him more. I wish Hertl could have gone out of the conference but, as you say, that might have been the best offer. Here is hoping 5 years from now, that first round pick we got from Vegas scores the game winning goal against them in the conference finals.
For the Brent Burns trade there are some interesting additional details:
The Sharks received a 3rd round pick from Carolina (#94) but ended up trading them back the pick and a 4th rounder (#100) for an earlier 3rd rounder. They used that pick on Brandon Svoboda (#71).
The Sharks also traded Lorentz and a 5th round pick to Florida for Anthony Duclair, who they flipped at the deadline for a 2024 3rd and Jack Thompson.
So the Sharks end up trading:
Brent Burns ($2.72M retained over 3 years)
Lane Pedersen
4th round pick 2023 (#100)
5th round pick 2025
And they received:
Eetu Makiniemi
Jack Thompson
Brandon Svoboda 3rd round pick 2023 (#71)
3rd round pick 2024
Trading up to get Svoboda was bad at the time and he looks even more like a bust this year. I wish we had Perron.
Musty is looking like a hell of a pick.
Great analysis and explanation as always, Shannon. Thanks!
Most of the people giving him a hard time have zero understanding of the management and financial side of the NHL.
Great video, Shannon! Thank you. I followed the Sharks from 1991-2019. You filled in a lot of holes since then. Perhaps the Sharks can turn it around soon.
I think Granlund been strongest and most consist SJ player this year. Zetterlund been good too, but i think Granlund been bit stronger. Ofc as Granlund fan i am bit biased. I hope Granlund and Kunin can stay in SJ long and be one of your leaders when SJ return to playoffs. Was so happy to see SJ giving them Alternate Captains jobs.
Thanks for the break down , this is a lot of info !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
give it time, good outlook
Very insightful video, well done
Grier is doing what must be done.
On the Hill trade we gave a second rounder for him 6 months earlier then trade him for a 4th. As a Sharks fan we had some faith in Grier until the Hertle Trade.
I can see this turning in to a series through every team. A review of their latest trades.
The set up Wilson put in place with Karl, Goose etc. was genius however too many key players injured sunk that ship. Boughner was a 3 season chemistry killer. Pavs said he had many boxes to tick along with money/time and Dallas ticked those boxes. I loved Hertl but the trade makes sense. He wanted it and on paper he is a 30 year old, reoccurring knee issues, underscoring lately, this season and last heavy minus and the $contract. I have been on this Sharks rollercoaster since the early 90s I am really looking forward to who over the seasons will be my next favorite players
Sharks fan here. THANK YOU! Very accurate reporting. One minor note: Joe Will (interim GM) was the one who signed Hertl to a long term deal while DW was on medical leave. Joe Will is still with the org as an Assistant GM. And Mike Grier has never said the Sharks don’t need a rebuild, he’s always suggested that the timeline is adjusting. DW used to say they weren’t rebuilding, they just need a retooling.
Your points are well made, and I feel similar in most regards. My concern with the Hertl trade is largely that I feel you do want some 'glue' guys to help build the culture, connect with the fans, and help the young kids develop and Hertl ticked all these boxes. Also, by taking a 2025 pick, that indicates to me this rebuild is going to be longer - not 3 yrs, but more like 5+. My other concern is the Sharks development program. In the last 10 years, the sharks have developed exactly 8 players with careers longer than 100 games (Ferraro, Gregor, Gambrell, Meier, Balcers, Goldobin, Lebanc, Mueller). They've also missed on several first round picks (Wiesblatt, Merkley, Roy). Now that's something that Grier might already be remedying, but until I see evidence of change, I'm skeptical and concerned. Keep up the good videos, and it was great to see you on the sharks broadcast too!
With regards to the Sharks lack of development, a big part of that is where the Sharks were selecting. You're excluding Norris (I'm assuming since he was traded during the development process), but all of the top 20 picks in that span have reached that mark or will most likely (Eklund the team chose to be patient with but, barring catastrophic injury, he'll reach that point and Smith almost definitely gets there too but the Sharks haven't played 100 games since he was drafted). Aside from them, Merkley at 21 was a bust but he was always considered a high-risk, high-reward player and they were selecting him because they so rarely got the chance to draft high end talent with where they were selecting/trading their picks away so it was worth taking the gamble. Roy was a 2nd rounder at 31st and he might have been successful but he dealt with a ton of injuries, and Weisblatt was a bit of a stretch where he was drafted and was the final pick of the 1st round. Bordeleau at 38th in 2020 is currently playing NHL games and they've been patient with him, he likely stays up now that the TDL is over and hopefully remains up next season, but he's shown promise of reaching the 100 game threshold. There are several other young guys in the system who look promising right now but it's too soon to tell (Gushchin, Musty, Havelid, Cagnoni, Furlong, etc).
As it is now, the Sharks are drafting much earlier. They're all but guaranteed a top 4 pick this year (doubtful they catch Anaheim who are 10 points ahead of them and have 5 more regulation wins and 7 more regulation/overtime wins), Pittsburgh's pick will either be right around 10 this year or it gets pushed to next year where I doubt it'll be much different. The more and earlier selections you have the likelier you are to develop them well.
Great video! Everything really started to snowball after the 2016 Cup loss. Bad, long-term contracts started. Moves just to hold on to being relevant in the post season. Wilson tanked the Sharks. Grier has done a phenomenal job grabbing the shovel and start the process of digging San Jose out. Wilson had 20 years to mold the Sharks into "his" team, how about we give Mike Grier some time to clean house and show us the team he wants to put on the ice. Still a few years to go.
like youve said in past videos, its easy to tear things down but its hard to build them back up again
Great video. I think you should've added a 1 min talk track about the effect of EK65's contract on the Sharks too. Not only did Vlasic, Thornton age poorly, Burns showing decline in SJ before going to CAR and rebooting, we also lost Pavs, Nyqvist, and Dillon, who all continue to be good producers. It was a tough decision at the time so I dont fault Doug Wilson per se, especially anyone here is nuts if they said "I knew for sure that Pavelski would continue to be a top NHL player as he nears 40". The decision was made though, didn't work out, and thus the painful two years of being bad but not admitting we are in a rebuild until we traded Meier, commenced.
Excellent analysis. You only get that here @ THG!
i dont hate the moves hes made, but the EA franchise mode GM in me hates the idea of paying retention for multiple years, i understand sometimes it needs to be done tho
Great analysis. Grier has done what had to be done. For this to work and build a quality team they need to draft and develop better. Have been poor at this the last 5 years. It’s been brutal at times but have enjoyed the season.
I thought the same thing about the seat lights when they showed up after the lock-down.
Really well done
Jayden Perron is struggling as a freshman at North Dakota, but still has high upside.
Worth noting the Sharks traded that pick back to Carolina along with pick 100 which to select Brandon Svoboda, the Sharks have no rights to Perron.
Quinton Musty is looking like he could be a stud prospect as well.
When you put it like this, maybe Grier isn’t so bad.
Best move the team has made, Wilson out - Grier in. Now this summer he finally has some chips to play his cards, let the man cook
Great job
Loved Hertl and Meier, but it made since to trade them.
Probably will have to eat the Vlasic and Couture contracts, but once those are up hopefully (big hope) they will be pushing for playoffs again
Great vid bud
Hertl underperformed because the team around him is wildly different than it was when he re-signed. Looking at that extension in hindsight isn't exactly fair
GMMG has been doing amazing for us. So glad he became our GM and the future he’s building for us in SJ.
DW was amazing for over 20 years but he definitely made some rough decisions towards the end in the hope to stay a contender forever
I would think another benefit of the cap space the have is if a young good player or one who has the potential to be is on the market they can get them and help speed up the rebuild.
Thanks for a great analysis on the state of the Sharks. Although the rebuild will continue to be painful, at least they have a clear direction moving forward. I just wish they would have won at least one Cup during the glory years.
Thank you for doing this. I agree with you on most part. SJ was not very attractive for free agents in the past. Thats a problem. I think we a have to built our team mostly through the draft. The addition of the 1st rounders will help. Now Grier has to hit on those.
Given the circumstances, I think Grier is doing as well as he can. The team had few assets and a lot of bad contracts, and he’s turning that around.
Not just EK, also Evander Kane,s contract (7 million per year),signed by DW, affected Pavs ability to resign later.
The hate is unreal for Grier. Our prospect pool is greatly improved under him and we needed to tear it down. Im hoping were good in 3 years. Unfortunately its just gonna take some time.
As a Sharks fan, I know there is light at the end of the tunnel. But it is a long tunnel and right now that light is looking pretty dim. I know we had to trade Hertl to get that contract off the books but I think a better deal could have been made in the offseason/ before the draft. Also anyone else but Vegas. It's going to be rough seeing him in that ugly gold helmet for the first time back at the Shark Tank.
San Jose has acquired a lot of prospects under Grier that have filled in a lot of what we didn't have from the 2017, 2018 and 2020 drafts. Maybe we didn't draft Ty Emberson or Jack Thompson, but they're here now. Not elite talent, but its filling out the depth for the future nicely.
Removed aging and expensive players ✅️
Draft solid prospects ✅️
So he's doing a solid job to rebuild the team but he's not done yet
Grier's dominating. Reading Sharks fans' takes after the Timo trade was scary though. Some takes so bad they could only really be explained by pretty extreme... biases... 😓Then after two months of Zetterlund/Okhotiuk/Mukhamadullin they'd forgotten all about it.
Love this vid. Grier has been exceeding my expectations considering the mess hes had to work with. Everything started to fall apart when DW decided Karlsson was more important than Pavs (who will always be my captain) but Grier has embraced what he has and made the best of it. Super stoked on Musty too
3 more years of Vlasic is BRUTAL
Grier is definitely doing the best he can. Doug Wilson sunk this franchise with horrible contracts.
So it’ll be fun to see how this rebuild plays out
MG has done a decent job.
2022-23. 29th NHL team and bottom 5 prospect pool.
2023-24. 32th NHL team and pool is now top 5.
The cap can be used as a weapon and that is under valued. At least next year the bad contracts are for serviceable players (Vlasic, Rutta, and Granlund).
Hoffman and Lebanc were a waste of $10m.
Who gave lebanc 5 mill a yr? I think it was Grier, horrific contract, for a fourth line guy,
@@brando7266 that was Doug Wilson.
@@stuartwilliams1598 horrific contract,
at 1:15 ... the interim GM that signed the Hertl deal, Joe Will, wasn't fired. He's still with the organization. Doug Wilson wasn't fired either.
Usually, you're spot on, Shannon, but you were way off here.
the vocal fans on social media are often very out of touch with reality when they dogpile on a player/team/gm. Glad THG is here to ad some sanity and balance to the conversation.
In my opinion mike Grier has done a tremendous job so far rebuilding this team by getting rid of a lot of our horrendous contract and also drafting really well. A lot of these young guys have really bright future and I see the sharks making the playoff in 3-4 years and being in contention for awhile if we keep that young core
would love for a review of brad treliving in Calgary in this style
I’ve been looking for a reason to cheer for the Sharks again, so maybe a rebuild will do.
Pavelski leaving ripped the heart out of that team
Jayden Perron is not a sharks prospect, that pick was traded back to Carolina funny enough, and Carolina selected Jayden Perron. San Jose traded up to get Brandon Svoboda
The issue with Adin Hill at the time was also that they had three goalies under contract between him, Reimer, and Kahkonen. Considering the volatility of the position, there's no guarantee anyone wanted the other two guys at the time. Reimer was wildly inconsistent from one year to the next and getting older and Kahkonen was seemingly unlikely to be moved so soon after being acquired and performing well enough.
As for Vlasic, he's likely a buyout candidate if they want to get rid of him. I don't think he had trade value even at 50%. They also have a logjam on defense where they need to move guys to open up spots to allow guys like Mukhamadullin and Thrun to get into the lineup and develop more consistently. Couture is at this point untradeable. Until and if he can actually heal from his injury, he's not going anywhere so they will be eating his contract. The absolute best case scenario is that he heals up this offseason (not a guarantee because he had this injury last offseason and it bled into this season, got aggravated, and is now causing him to miss the rest of it), plays all of next season and then becomes tradeable with a retention slot freeing up and Couture then only having two years to go. Those are very long odds so expect him to be here and probably injured for the rest of his deal. His injury is pretty gnarly.
Did the Sharks get Jayden Perron in the Burns trade? I thought it was Svoboda.
I think Grier has done a good job so far and should be able to see this thing through
A couple of corrections. You were talking about not knowing how Perron would work out, the Sharks actually traded that pick back to Carolina along with pick 100 to move up to 71 and take Brandon Svoboda. Also the Hertl contract was signed by an interim GM who is still in the organization - Doug Wilson was on medical leave for several months prior to the signing so Joe Will was the one who actually signed it. Whether or not Wilson would've offered the same deal is another question, but that deal wasn't signed by him (regardless of what capfriendly says). We can also quibble over this, but Wilson wasn't fired. Several months after stepping away temporarily for medical reasons he decided to permanently step down. It's possible the team allowed him to save a bit of face by saying it was mutual (though I really don't understand the need to do so) or that they would've fired him had he been healthy, but I don't think he was technically fired.
Also you were talking about the Namestnikov trade implying it wasn't a great move because he's been good on the Jets. The Sharks traded Eyssimont who they'd gotten off waivers for free for Namestnikov who was on an expiring contract and got a 4th for him 2 days later. Namestnikov had no ties to San Jose in the 2 days and 0 games played, it wasn't particularly likely he was going to develop enough to want to re-sign by staying in San Jose for the last 20 games or so. They essentially got a 4th round pick for nothing. Admittedly that 4th round pick likely won't end up reaching the NHL since most of them don't, but we won't know that for probably around 4-5 years at least (it's a 2025 4th).
Your comment that rebuilding teams should have lots of cap space made me think of Montreal, which does not. How did they get to a situation where they still have the questionable contracts of a team on the way down, while also having the extra draft picks and prospects of a team on the way up? What was Marc Bergevin doing?
Mike grier for GM of the year 🤷♂️
Thank you for this. We're in a dark place but there's light at the end of the tunnel thanks to Grier. We made our own bed, time to lay in it.
Sharks don’t have retention slots until the end of next season. Will be interesting how that plays out