I have bought ASML 10% of my portfolio. My goal ist 30%, if it drops more which I hope a lot. ASML is one of the very few company I am really really bullish on! Thank you Victor as always :-) ...
@@TheIntelligentInvestor I noticed that you have $41.12 billion for 2025 - the company guided to $30-$35 billion in 2025 - do you think this is currently priced in at $670/share? Thank you!
@SebaTarth Good question, ASML guided down their 2025 revenue guidance to between $30 and $35 billion EUR after I made this video, because Intel/Samsung fabs are delayed and because of more export restrictions to China. I double checked my video, my mid-point revenue is actually around $36 billion for 2025 (this should be slightly lower). The important thing is that ASML is still reaffirming its 2030’s “annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin of between approximately 56% and 60%.” ASML is a long term hold for me, so I’m not worried about it missing guidance in the short term. As long as it’s meeting the long term 2030 revenue guidance, it’s fine.
Thanks for the great video! Just did extensive researchon ASML and I agree with you. The financials and growth rates are truly amazing. The company is performing and growing so consistent in an inconsistent and cyclical industry. ASML has an almost Monopoly on the photolithography market owning a 90% market share. One of their only weaknesses is that they cannot keep up with demand and it takes 2-3 years to expand their capabilities to produce more machines. Luckily they started expanding heavily in 2022 so should see that effect real soon. They also have a new CEO, so it will be interesing to see how he will do. Biggest challenge is geopolitical tension between the US, EU and China. On every level this company is truly truly magnificent to own. Only question is indeed valuation. I've seen so many different valuations coming at about 1000 USD so that is the number I am going with. Will now buy slowly.
Thank you, Victor. Wonderful analysis and detail, as always. I recently started an ASML position as I think the current fears are overblown in the long term. Have you ever looked at ACMR stock? It’s in the same industry and has incredible growth rates. It also has even more significant geopolitical fears baked into the pricing - with PE of 12 and 35-45% plus growth rates consistently
Great video, own both ASML and TSMC myself. I would love an updated video on Amazon. I only own Microsoft for now talking about cloud providers but i am looking at Amazon, seems keep but also a lot of areas in the company are not growing too well atm
Same, I own both ASML and TSMC, as well as Nvidia, AMD, etc. I made several videos about Amazon before when it was much more undervalued. Typically, I make videos when the company is undervalued. For Amazon, the biggest growth and profit drivers will be its advertising business and its AWS business. Amazon will need to continue investing in AI infrastructures like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud to stay competitive. I'll probably make a video about Amazon next month.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thx for reply! Thanks! Looking forward to it. Heavy capex-investing for Amazong for many years before and years to come. interestering to see when they can start harvesting the fruits fully! :D Interesting business non-the-less! Cloud-business globally expected to grow with a high CAGR coming 5 years which is positive.
-40% from peak, -20% since this video. China represents 15% of it's revenue. ASML average revenue growth is about 15%. The ban on selling advanced EUV and certain DUV systems to China would subtract 5-10% from ASML's revenue. I bought a very small amount today to keep an eye on stock. But I wouldn't invest a lot personally. Let me know your thoughts, in case I missed something.
I think we have to look forward and not backward when we analyze ASML. Going forward, ASML’s revenue growth should be in the low teens in most years instead of mid-teens because ASML is restricted from selling the high-end DUV lithography machines to China. China should contribute about 20% of ASML’s revenue in the long run. The US and Netherlands won’t block ASML from selling low-end DUV lithography to China because they need China to continue manufacturing the older-gen chips, just not the leading-edge chips. Once the overall semiconductor market (outside of AI) recovers and once the new fabs start to come online, I expect ASML’s bookings and revenue growth will accelerate again (probably around 10% to 12% each year over the longer term). EPS should grow faster than revenue growth. We have to look at ASML from a business perspective. Its EUV and DUV lithography machines are mission-critical. All the new fabs will eventually need to buy more advanced DUV and EUV machines from ASML going forward especially when our chips will need to move from current 5nm/3nm to 2nm and Angstrom nodes A16 and below.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thanks for taking time to reply to me. I'll certainly keep ASML stock for the moment an may increase my position in the future.
I don't really like Micron's memory and storage business. There is no moat. Memories and storage products are essentially commodities. But Micron (like Samsung & SK Hynix)'s HBM sales should continue to grow the most over the next 2 to 3 years because all the AI chips need HBM. I'll try to see if I have time to analyze Micron this month.
Synopsys is still in the process of acquiring Ansys, but it’s hard to know whether this acquisition will go through because of antitrust issues/regulatory approval. I’ll wait until this acquisition goes through first before making a new video about Synopsys. But I will add more to Synopsys if it dips more below my intrinsic value.
Thoughts on potentially analyzing OXY, BABA, or JD? Buffet increased position and even though BABA and JD are Chinese stocks, I wanted to get your insight on their buyback plans. Always appreciate the videos!
I only know Buffett has been buying more OXY, not BABA and JD. I think it’s best not to follow Buffett’s trades because many of his trades don’t make sense and won’t work for retail investors (eg selling half of Apple even though Apple’s overall business is much better than the entire Berkshire, buying HP before and selling at a huge loss, selling TSMC because he didn’t understand tech and the business, etc). Chinese stocks are (eg BABA JD PDD) are generally uninvestable *no matter how cheap they are vs US stocks because of the politics there which I have mentioned many times in my previous videos.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor And to clarify, I was only talking about Buffett increasing his position in OXY. I mentioned BABA and JD, simply because BABA has been extremely aggressive in share buybacks despite high stock based comp and how unjust and involved the CCP tends to be in the market
Well think about this, without ASML, we won’t have iPhones, high-performance CPUs and GPUs, Nvidia GPUs, Nvidia H100/H200/Blackwell AI supercomputers that are used for making LLMs. Semiconductor is essentially the new oil. And ASML is one of the most important mission-critical companies in the semiconductor sector. ASML will be around for decades as long as the world needs high-performance chips for all our devices.
Bro, they are in the same semiconductor industry and same sector. Of course, we can compare ASML to other semiconductor companies like Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, etc. The point is to show that ASML is still much smaller than the largest semiconductor companies in terms of market cap. But Within more specific sectors like semiconductor equipment manufacturers, we can also compare ASML to Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLAC.
lol I disagree, it ages well:) The best time to invest is when the market is very fearful, not the other way around. As long as it’s a great business with increasing earnings over time, the stock will eventually follow.
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I just discovered this channel from researching about the ASML dip. This content is pure gold so much value. :)
Thanks watching I appreciate your kind words!
Thanks for making such detailed analytical videos, has been very helpful to a rookie like me with my portfolio. Thank you.
Great Video. Thank you.
I have bought ASML 10% of my portfolio. My goal ist 30%, if it drops more which I hope a lot. ASML is one of the very few company I am really really bullish on! Thank you Victor as always :-) ...
Yup I’m holding mine. I think I have about 5% in ASML, I ain’t selling mine despite the short-term headwinds. It’s meant for long-term holding.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thank you for replying. Love your Videos. Keeps up your work. I am learning a lot from you. :)
Amazing work like in the last AMD video. Still one of the very best value channels out there.
Thanks! I appreciate that!
Great analysis. Has your outlook changed on ASML since this video? Thank you, love the channel!
Nope the same, long-term fundamentals have not changed despite the short-term headwinds. I actually bought the dip recently:)
@@TheIntelligentInvestor I noticed that you have $41.12 billion for 2025 - the company guided to $30-$35 billion in 2025 - do you think this is currently priced in at $670/share? Thank you!
@SebaTarth Good question, ASML guided down their 2025 revenue guidance to between $30 and $35 billion EUR after I made this video, because Intel/Samsung fabs are delayed and because of more export restrictions to China. I double checked my video, my mid-point revenue is actually around $36 billion for 2025 (this should be slightly lower). The important thing is that ASML is still reaffirming its 2030’s “annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin of between approximately 56% and 60%.” ASML is a long term hold for me, so I’m not worried about it missing guidance in the short term. As long as it’s meeting the long term 2030 revenue guidance, it’s fine.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thank you for this detailed response. IMHO you've got the best investing channel on YT.
@SebaTarth Thanks I really appreciate it!
Thanks for the great video!
Just did extensive researchon ASML and I agree with you. The financials and growth rates are truly amazing. The company is performing and growing so consistent in an inconsistent and cyclical industry.
ASML has an almost Monopoly on the photolithography market owning a 90% market share. One of their only weaknesses is that they cannot keep up with demand and it takes 2-3 years to expand their capabilities to produce more machines. Luckily they started expanding heavily in 2022 so should see that effect real soon.
They also have a new CEO, so it will be interesing to see how he will do.
Biggest challenge is geopolitical tension between the US, EU and China.
On every level this company is truly truly magnificent to own. Only question is indeed valuation. I've seen so many different valuations coming at about 1000 USD so that is the number I am going with. Will now buy slowly.
Thanks for your thorough analysis
Thanks for watching!
Thank you, Victor. Wonderful analysis and detail, as always. I recently started an ASML position as I think the current fears are overblown in the long term.
Have you ever looked at ACMR stock? It’s in the same industry and has incredible growth rates. It also has even more significant geopolitical fears baked into the pricing - with PE of 12 and 35-45% plus growth rates consistently
Great video, own both ASML and TSMC myself. I would love an updated video on Amazon. I only own Microsoft for now talking about cloud providers but i am looking at Amazon, seems keep but also a lot of areas in the company are not growing too well atm
Same, I own both ASML and TSMC, as well as Nvidia, AMD, etc. I made several videos about Amazon before when it was much more undervalued. Typically, I make videos when the company is undervalued. For Amazon, the biggest growth and profit drivers will be its advertising business and its AWS business. Amazon will need to continue investing in AI infrastructures like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud to stay competitive. I'll probably make a video about Amazon next month.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thx for reply! Thanks! Looking forward to it. Heavy capex-investing for Amazong for many years before and years to come. interestering to see when they can start harvesting the fruits fully! :D Interesting business non-the-less! Cloud-business globally expected to grow with a high CAGR coming 5 years which is positive.
Thank you. You are very good
-40% from peak, -20% since this video. China represents 15% of it's revenue. ASML average revenue growth is about 15%. The ban on selling advanced EUV and certain DUV systems to China would subtract 5-10% from ASML's revenue. I bought a very small amount today to keep an eye on stock. But I wouldn't invest a lot personally. Let me know your thoughts, in case I missed something.
I think we have to look forward and not backward when we analyze ASML. Going forward, ASML’s revenue growth should be in the low teens in most years instead of mid-teens because ASML is restricted from selling the high-end DUV lithography machines to China. China should contribute about 20% of ASML’s revenue in the long run. The US and Netherlands won’t block ASML from selling low-end DUV lithography to China because they need China to continue manufacturing the older-gen chips, just not the leading-edge chips. Once the overall semiconductor market (outside of AI) recovers and once the new fabs start to come online, I expect ASML’s bookings and revenue growth will accelerate again (probably around 10% to 12% each year over the longer term). EPS should grow faster than revenue growth. We have to look at ASML from a business perspective. Its EUV and DUV lithography machines are mission-critical. All the new fabs will eventually need to buy more advanced DUV and EUV machines from ASML going forward especially when our chips will need to move from current 5nm/3nm to 2nm and Angstrom nodes A16 and below.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thanks for taking time to reply to me. I'll certainly keep ASML stock for the moment an may increase my position in the future.
Victor would love to hear your take on Micron Technology. Down 60% from the high. Thanks.
I don't really like Micron's memory and storage business. There is no moat. Memories and storage products are essentially commodities. But Micron (like Samsung & SK Hynix)'s HBM sales should continue to grow the most over the next 2 to 3 years because all the AI chips need HBM. I'll try to see if I have time to analyze Micron this month.
Highly appreciate you Victor for replying. And thanks for the honest comment. Let's see if we get to see MU stock analysis or not. Thanks again mate.
Excellent overview as always! Looking to add to my position. Any plans for an update on synopsys?
Synopsys is still in the process of acquiring Ansys, but it’s hard to know whether this acquisition will go through because of antitrust issues/regulatory approval. I’ll wait until this acquisition goes through first before making a new video about Synopsys. But I will add more to Synopsys if it dips more below my intrinsic value.
Long $ASML
Same:) I like near-monopoly businesses.
-30% for the moment
Thoughts on potentially analyzing OXY, BABA, or JD? Buffet increased position and even though BABA and JD are Chinese stocks, I wanted to get your insight on their buyback plans. Always appreciate the videos!
I only know Buffett has been buying more OXY, not BABA and JD. I think it’s best not to follow Buffett’s trades because many of his trades don’t make sense and won’t work for retail investors (eg selling half of Apple even though Apple’s overall business is much better than the entire Berkshire, buying HP before and selling at a huge loss, selling TSMC because he didn’t understand tech and the business, etc). Chinese stocks are (eg BABA JD PDD) are generally uninvestable *no matter how cheap they are vs US stocks because of the politics there which I have mentioned many times in my previous videos.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Do you see yourself doing an analysis on the Japanese trading houses like Itochu, Mitsui, Marubeni, etc.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor And to clarify, I was only talking about Buffett increasing his position in OXY. I mentioned BABA and JD, simply because BABA has been extremely aggressive in share buybacks despite high stock based comp and how unjust and involved the CCP tends to be in the market
Where can I find your intrinsic value calculator?
Patron only. The links in the video description.
From the whole semiconductor sector only choose ASML & TSM ❤
Yup I own both:) I like chip stocks:)
Just bought my 1st ASML Stock, under $800 USD, Do you think this stock will split in 2025?
No one knows, it’s up to the management.
Sure it's almost a monopoly, but I simply can't put my trust in a company whose whole business could disappear if the USA decided so...
Well think about this, without ASML, we won’t have iPhones, high-performance CPUs and GPUs, Nvidia GPUs, Nvidia H100/H200/Blackwell AI supercomputers that are used for making LLMs. Semiconductor is essentially the new oil. And ASML is one of the most important mission-critical companies in the semiconductor sector. ASML will be around for decades as long as the world needs high-performance chips for all our devices.
Stocks dropped drastically to 700 dolars yesterday. What say you????
I bought the dip:)
@@TheIntelligentInvestorI did as well, ❤
You can't compare the market cap of ASML to NVDA or TSM. That is like comparing a sewing machine company to Nike, or beef farmers to McDonald's.
Bro, they are in the same semiconductor industry and same sector. Of course, we can compare ASML to other semiconductor companies like Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, etc. The point is to show that ASML is still much smaller than the largest semiconductor companies in terms of market cap. But Within more specific sectors like semiconductor equipment manufacturers, we can also compare ASML to Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLAC.
this didnot age well, lol
lol I disagree, it ages well:) The best time to invest is when the market is very fearful, not the other way around. As long as it’s a great business with increasing earnings over time, the stock will eventually follow.