Monday: Storm Chances return to Northwest Texas & Big Country

Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer has a special Sunday update on the possibility of scattered severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in Northwest Texas, the Big Country, western Texoma, western North Texas, and parts of the Concho Valley.
Unlike last Monday and Tuesday, we're not expecting a repeat of a multi-day severe weather event in Texas. A few days ago, it looked like we may - but that higher threat of severe weather has shifted north toward the Central Plains of the United States.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop after 4 PM Monday east of a dryline located in Northwest Texas south into the Big Country. The risk of storms has shifted back east (mostly) out of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. We'll have to monitor the eastward progression of the dryline tomorrow in case it holds up further west. If that occurs, the risk for a few storms may also begin further west.
A strong capping inversion, or lid on the atmosphere, will work to prevent thunderstorm development tomorrow. That 'lid' and a lack of stronger upper-level lift tomorrow afternoon will work to limit the number of storms we deal with tomorrow. Likewise, we'll see that 'lid' become stronger as storms move east toward Interstate 35 in Texoma and North Texas tomorrow evening. Storms that do develop tomorrow afternoon and evening will weaken as they move east into those regions.
Large to very large hail, along with localized damaging wind gusts, will be the primary hazards of tomorrow's thunderstorms. If we have intense, sustained supercells in Northwest Texas, a low tornado threat may materialize between 6PM and 10PM. Storms will weaken as they move east/northeast during the mid- to late evening hours.
As the more substantial upper-level lift arrives late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a Pacific cool front will push east/southeast. Those two ingredients may be enough to fire off thunderstorms in Northwest Texas, Texoma, and North Texas. This is a lower-probability scenario that may result in strong storm potential. We'll refine this possibility in tomorrow morning's Texas Weather Roundup.
Our current forecast keeps a vast majority of Texas severe-thunderstorm-free tomorrow and Tuesday, with only isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorms. As the Pacific cool front moves east on Tuesday, we may see a few strong thunderstorms fire up in the afternoon hours across the Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, and East Texas with gusty winds and hail.
Our current forecast keeps severe thunderstorm potential
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[@TexasWeatherCenter]

Just to be clear, Tomorrow and Tuesday are not expected to emulate last week's severe weather event. We're talking about much smaller regions of Texas, generally well away from the Interstate 35 urban corridor (minus parts of North Texas, where weakening storms may approach tomorrow night). Tomorrow may be a tamer day in Texas, with the 'action' being up in Kansas and Nebraska. However, we could also have our own isolated issues to deal with.

[@darleneerwin4964]

Thanks David for letting us know what our weather is going to be the first part of this week...STAY BLESSED!!!

[@necronomitron9826]

David and the team are no doubt the GOATS of Tx forecasting

[@TexasWeatherCenter]

Thank ya!!

[@tugboat2739]

Thanks for update Mr baldy n chief

[@jillclegg526]

Thanks David for the updates, as well 👍

[@donnaleighjenkins4952]

Again, Thank so much David! You the best!

[@therealebolaboy]

Thanks for all the updates!

[@birdehh4503]

This forecast means nothing to me, as I’m up in southern Ontario Canada but I just like watching them you get the idea of where these places are when you watch chasers all the time, including you guys ❤ fantastic job of keeping the people informed!

[@josephwagner3224]

Welcome to the craziness that is Texas weather.

[@birdehh4503]

@@josephwagner3224 believe me we get our fair share up here too. Sometimes we get all four seasons in one day 😂

[@tomchidwick]

Thanks for the update David!

[@laurabell48]

Thank you David

[@suefink7292]

good evening David, not use to seeing you this time of night. thank you for the weather update as always you do throw some snarkiness in there too,lol. enjoy your evening, hope you can get some rest

[@Gayla.Aucoin]

thank God for conversion cap✝️🛐

[@cosmogirl8713]

Hi David 👋 good evening..surprise update thanks!

[@user-dp1es6ef6v]

Going to be going to Arkansas Tuesday hopefully we can get there before all the rain and storms start there

[@minkademko2335]

Greetings from Panola County ❤

[@jillclegg526]

Howdy there David ❤😊hopefully you're having a great Sunday! Greetings from Virginia & gb

[@amsohn1]

Thanks David! Blessings ❤

[@nannernose3133]

Thanks, David!

[@sheliajennings3402]

Thanks for the updates!

[@janetwhite2039]

Glad to hear a out the rain..my plants need natural water instead of hose.

[@EK--ry3lr]

Thanks for taking time on Sunday

[@lomagibson664]

Thanks so much! ❤ God bless

[@cindygu2175]

Thank you from Abilene!

[@WhimsyWits1]

Thank you.

[@ridgerunner9072]

YEOWZAH!!! The B.I.C. is in tha house!!!
Yippppeee yall.

[@CATownsend777]

Id say Monday 3pm to 4pm in the WF area, if anything. .

[@cks57youto53]

North Central Texas looks like out of the higher threats ..
Thank goodness !!!!!!!!

[@garyphillips9768]

Dark clouds windy but no rain north east Texas

[@egarci9783]

All these clouds and humidity and no rain wow makes sense

[@victorrutledge257]

Since it's impossible, according to the computer model, Temple will have a Tornado about 2 PM tomorrow.

[@mirandalopez2640]

😭 I just want rain! The allergies need to stop!

[@danacomstock7598]

No parking lot?❤

[@jasonclendennen9731]

The caps strong in north texas. where not going to have storms.

[@candacerose5811]

Have you heard or covered what the heck formed off of Antarctica after the eclipse affecting all of the Atlantic Ocean this week 😮

[@candacerose5811]

In2thinair did a great video 3 days ago about it..

[@sophiadespana8084]

I wish there were a way of marking on your map all the geographical places in the highways. I can't always tell if you're talking about my area or not because I don't know where all those places are. I try to look them up as you go but what part of texoma, how is North Texas different from North Central Texas different from the panhandle? Where is the Edwards plateau in the concho basin. And the highways! I know where 45 is 🙂

[@Sheryl777]

@sophia I always just try to look up places on google...usually we can find a map of some sort to help figure things out. That really is the easiest way for me, but it might be different for different folks though. 👍

[@sarah-stars]

travelnotes.org/ustravel/texas/images/texas.gif

[@Sheryl777]

@@sarah-stars That's a very helpful map...thanks Sarah!

[@alexiscodd6059]

second comment👍👍

[@straightshootskeet]

Awesome