Rising Oil Prices, US Treasuries & The Arab Oil Embargo | What Is The "PetroDollar Agreement"?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2024
- Remember when you had to wait in long lines for gas as a kid/teenager? Ever wonder why? Watch on as we talk about rising oil prices, US Treasuries & the Arab oil embargo & take a walk down memory lane to explain the "petrodollar agreement" that really exists.
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Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
1. Bond Basics
What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
Inflation Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
Wrap-Up
3. US Treasuries Overview
What Are US Treasuries
Why Invest In Treasuries
Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
Wrap-Up
4. Treasury Bills
What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
Where Should You Buy At Auction
Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
Where To Find Recent Auction Results
High Rate vs Investment Rate
Reopening Auctions
Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
Wrap-Up
5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
When Do Auctions Happen
Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
Wrap-Up
6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
What Are TIPS
When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
Nominal vs Real Yields
Negative Yields
How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
Taxes On Phantom Income
Secondary Market Liquidity
Wrap-Up
7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
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Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
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SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO:
Our Video On The Dominance Of The USD: th-cam.com/video/fOkrJfqM9kI/w-d-xo.html
Daniel Yergin's The Prize
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis#/media/File:Crude_oil_prices_since_1861.png
www.jstor.org/stable/4325256
www.nytimes.com/1974/06/09/archives/milestone-pact-is-signed-by-us-and-saudi-arabia-acclaimed-by.html
www.energyintel.com/00000184-15bf-df66-a797-ddffc2380000
www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/dollar-dominance-monitor/#
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-us-dollar-post-covid-edition-20230623.html#:
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-us-dollar-post-covid-edition-20230623.html#
finance.yahoo.com/
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The structure of your videos has me clicking every time I get a notification. Keep up the great work.
I remember the gas rationing as others noted but honestly never really knew why.
The real story on the petrodollar was great and you made it very clear.
Thanks for your continued work educating people in financial planning.
I find it hard to believe you don’t have more followers. There are lots of people missing out.
I remember waiting on long lines to get gas for my car back then…thanks for the explanation!
Amazingly thorough Jennifer, thanks for all the in depth research and sharing, you are exceptional 👏👏👏!
Thank you for your excellent explanation! I feel better now because I saw some of those fake videos.
Fantastic educational video, Jen. I clearly remember the 1973 oil embargo and to this day, it is in my mind whenever I gas up. Fake news is very, very dangerous. We need people like you to keep us educated.
Incredibly informative.. I clearly remember the oil embargo of 1973 and the odd and even license plate number of days for gasoline with lines 3 miles long..
I really like your videos because you always start with the conclusion.
Excellent job! Intellectually clear and morally brave: most on economic youtube do doom and gloom videos with zero logic. Please post more!!
Thank you so much for this video.
So clear and useful. Thank you!
Brilliant analysis. Too many TH-cam channels fall very short of any real digging to find the true facts and details, but just go with sensationalism. You are the true exception and this is why I have subscribed, long ago to your channel. Well done.
Jennifer, you are the best. The. Best. Your stable sanity, lack of hype, and absence of fearmongering are so refreshing.
Excellent video and information Jennifer. Very helpful. Thank you!
Outstanding presentation! Great job.
Excellent video. Thank you for your integrity
Dynamic post. Great economic and history lessons. thanks.
Thank you someone finally said it
That was a GREAT "Real News" video!
I remember as a child during the Arab oil embargo having to wait inline for only 5$ worth of gas!
Great info...problem is what you said at the end Jennifer. Unfortunately no politician wants to tell the public what they need to hear...NO MORE FREEBIES!
Great video! Thank you!
Thank you Jennifer for the history lesson and trip down memory lane. I was 22 in 1973 and remember gas rationing and "no gas" signs in some stations. However, I don't recall it being catastrophic. I was always able to get enough gas to drive to work, etc. I do remember, however, that implementation of the 55 mph speed limit made the drive from Miami to Detroit seem much longer!
Great in-depth explanation! Thank you for debunking those fakers.
Have Israel and Ukraine buy some US debt
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS!!
Thank you for this excellent video…it should be shown in American high school history classes! I remember, as a very little kid, waiting in long lines for gas and only being able to go when our license plate ended in an even number.
Ahh, this was great! I really liked how you put this story together by tying together the Yom Kippur war, Nixon's troubles with Watergate, and Saudi Arabia putting the squeeze on oil exports to the US. The disruption in oil sent shock waves through the US economy and played a part in America's economic stagnation during this time. High cost of energy translates to higher cost of manufacturing and higher cost of goods. All of this translated to higher inflation. I'm not saying this was the sole cause of inflation but it certainly didn't help!
All of this started to set up the move toward globalization. The world, and America, needed an advantaged country where the cost of labor and energy was lower than before. This country would receive a massive influx of foreign investment to set up factories filled with low cost labor pumping out commodity materials from steel to tube socks to toys. Can we guess the name of the country?
China.
China was extremely advantaged when it came to energy and labor costs. The resulting lower cost of goods basically sucked inflation out of the US and around the world. Yes, Paul Volcker did his bit with interest rates but without China the world would not have seen the immense growth it has had over the past 40 years. We would have come out of a high inflationary setting dazed and confused, like from a really bad hang over, not knowing what to do. In this case, it wouldn't be a stretch to say China saved the world.
And to think that China's unexpected rise all began with a war far away from its borders!
Just like Saudi Arabia is in the "dollar game" with oil, so too is China in the same "dollar game" when it comes to imports/exports. The network effect you mentioned that was solidified with the Saudis in the 1970s took hold of China in the 80s and 90s. If anyone wants to play with America then the game will be played in US dollars, whether its for oil, commodities, or high tech goodies like GPU chips, software services, or advanced chip manufacturing equipment.
The network effect doesn't stop there. Think of all the countries in South America and Africa that have "dollarized". Knock yourself out with this list!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_substitution#United_States_dollar
The dollar is huge!
This has got to be one of the best video in international finance. Excellent content and delivery. Would love to see you discuss the network effect of US$ in depth. That would certainly put an end to the rumors about the death of US$.
I never saw any of those fake videos. Thank you for the history lesson and your in-depth analysis on this subject.
I guess you're watching the right channels then Petra :-)
@@DiamondNestEgg I give it my best shot !
Very well done. Thanks
Wow what a powerful and enlightening video of the dollar;
can u pls do a video on why the US went against the GOLD standard
Excellent!
I’m old enough to remember gas rationing.
I always thought it had something to do with going off the gold standard. I did learn something new.
Thank you for more in depth investigation into the spreading of bs
I questioned this in my mind 2 weeks ago, and had lengthy discussion with a 12 year younger former colleague this week while working on a side job this week
Thank you for confirming
You are far more trusted than stupid influencers or cnbc
Thanks!
This happened in the final 2 years of my high school time. You can not even imagine the mortal hit to the US economy politics and culture. Gas was rationed on alternating days, by odd and even last numbers on license plates, and still, cars lined up for the rationed amount for blocks leading to gas pumps. Heat was turned off in moth balled buildings on college campuses until spring of 1975. Stagflation was cemented into the decade as aresult. It is referred to as The Arab Oil Shock, the first of 2.
Thanks for sharing
Over hyped memory of 45 years ago
This lasted about 10 - 14 days
My dads regular fill up station filled us up whenever we wanted , odd or even didn’t matter , “I take care of my regular customers, not government rules”
The way it should be
@@g.t.richardson6311 Did you even watch the video? The first oil embargo occured in 1973 and lasted several months. Prices doubled and tripled almost immediately and supplies were very limited. Rationing was the national norm and caused a lot of social disruption everywhere.
I remember, @ptioxon. The gas stations that were open often limited purchases to 2-3 gallons. I remember traveling with my family and never knowing if there would be gasoline enough to get home.😮 It definitely affected my world view.
🥲
Ah I was a newer driver in 1978-1979 and also remember taking vacations those summers 6-8 hours to the beach ,,, never had that worry or saw it to that extreme
That was 45 years ago and peoples memories are over inflating this
I remember some stations limiting purchases but never as low as you mentioned
Maybe 10 gallons
I remember my dads amico station guy telling him “my regular customers can always fill up”
It was a very brief inconvenience
@@g.t.richardson6311 do you mean 73-74? Because there really wasn’t a disruption in oil supply in 78-79.
I have clear memories of what I describe in 73-74. Maybe there was regional variation. Although I too remember gas stations limiting sales to just their regular customers. I have wondered how such an arrangement would work today. My guess is that it wouldn’t.
@@sampetrie340 maybe I’m wrong and I’m 5 years off ?
But quite frankly I dont remember any great disruption where i lived
My dad took public transportation to work, so that wasn’t an issue .. I can assure you there was NO crisis driving from pgh to Erie borough pgh to va beach in 1973-1974
Wow! Great job!
this was particularly fun and educational
So tired of this narrative there was an agreement! Did anyone not read Henry Kissingers books!
I would not believe anything Henry Kissinger said relating to the Saudi Arabia oil “agreements”.
Super informative! As always, thanks Jen for your insight and analysis!! ❤
Nicely done!
What if the rating agencies downgraded the dollar so that none rated it AAA?
Do you mean US Treasury Bonds? Who cares what rating they give them. Our government can't default by law.
@@brianglas7768 As I understand, T-Bills, Notes and Bonds are rated as follows…
Moody's: Aaa rating with a negative outlook
Fitch: Aa+ rating with a stable outlook
Standard & Poor's: Aa+ rating with a stable outlook
Many funds, pension, etc can only hold AAA rated debt. Moodys is the only agency which still rates US Treasuries at AAA. If they downgrade it, there would likely be massive selling of Treasuries. People who need not worry are this who plan to hold the debt to maturity.
Absolutely correct Jennifer. Our debt is the #1 problem we have.
Who tends to spread fake news on this topic - previous metals fans?
Good tutorial
So professional video
Interesting. This sucked in a lot of people. Good to know it was false.