Another excellent interview, Jonathan. While watching I was struck by the quality and lucidness of discourse within western and Ukrainian media, as exemplified by Mr. Shekhovtsov, and the unhinged irrationality I see coming out of Russia. Thank you for promoting and amplifying the former.
and that Ru unhinged talk u see out of Ru, is based on their way of thinking and practice of information-manipulation that is the Ru way of life and statism. Most in the west don't grasp what russians have been like for many many decades, which is that everything they say is a lie. Their shallow way of being is something they're infamous for and we see the ultimate conclusion of it now, i.e indiffernce to atrocities for their own meaningless purposes, in this case, to get a bit of industrial lands including coal mines and a sea port area that has resorts as well. But Ru had other ports nearby, so it's pure avaristic greed. The best experts Fink has had on here have pointed out that Putin is only motivated probably by a very simplistic greed and desire for personal power, with just a sub facade of rebuilding a greater russia in mystical b.s. terms. I've studied history all my long life including at the best international affairs school in the USa and one of the best in the world. I've also studied a lot about behavior. I agree that Putin and his pals are simple and that means there's only a few ways to handle them, and it involves the demonstration/threat of violence. We have the upper hand by far and away and it's time to get going.
I'm completely at a loss. To know thousands of Ukrainian children are in Russian re-education camps is distressing. Give me a moment. I'm talking myself down
It’s a heartbreaking tragedy. So many of these children will be traumatised. All will be abused mentally with Russian Z propaganda. Some will be abused physically. This issue above all have led me to reassess everything I thought I knew about Russia.
I asked Konstantin if he and his fellow Russians against the war on Ukraine would look for these children and report any information to Ukraine government. Konstantin actually visited an Orphanage for Ukrainian children in Rostov a year ago. He and his wife bought supplies and took them to the Orphanage. He did a video if it and posted on his yt channel, INSIDE RUSSIA. That's how I found out. I told Ukraine govt about the video. We don't talk about it for obvious reasons so what happened after that, I know nothing. Konstantin has left Russia with his family as many sane, humane Russians have. They might be working on stuff they won't talk about. Just speaking out about what is happening in Russia puts Konstantin in constant danger. His live stream is about to start. He presents very good, researched information about inside russia current events.
Excellent content....Excellent speaker, confirming our justified hatred of Putin and his regime; and I have come to respect his insight and tradecraft through this interview....Here is just a little bit of his significant contribution: "and I think we should know that every person in Russia who is successful, economically, financially successful, politically successful, those people they know that without the Putin regime they would be nothing - so their stakes, yeah, they put their stakes on the survival of the Putin regime no matter what mistakes it does because without it, you know, they owe Putin what they have. So they would need to go along". "I believe that there are no true oligarchs in Russia because the term itself presupposes that you have power....you may have wealth, you may be rich, but you will never have power". "You can either do politics or you can be rich....you have to follow the line". Ukraine developed quite differently between the 90's ....like a proto-democracy in a way, because those were also interest groups who would also have their own political interests.... because between oligarchs you would have competition you would also have political competition....it was a natural process...having those oligarchs... in Ukraine.......OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA, OUTSIDE OF THE CRUMBLED USSR. IMO, it is prima fascia evidence that Ukraine was ALWAYS different from RUS. It was always itself, it was always a "nation", it was always a SPEAKING GROUP of unique people, as you have shown quite powerfully Jonathan from the MANY AND VARIOUS SPEAKER you have had on your show. Bravo again, well done. And thank you ANTON SHEKHOVTSOV - valuable academian.
I appreciate very much your selection of knowledgable people and the intelligent way you interview them. You represent one of the most interesting and informative media on the cataclysmic changes involved by the terrible Russian agression against the Ukrainian people and national state.
I think the major problem with the argumentation is not if Ukrainians look like Russians, smell like Russians or even speak russian language but only if the conviction of the Ukrainians is not to be Russians it has to be enough to accept that the`re not Russians. It`s their will. There is plenty simmilar countrys speaking same language. Else all english speaking countries would have to be considered to be England. Same with other Languages spoken within different countries. It`s a choice and a fight between autoritarism and free will.
16:14 Asking why the Russians don’t have their our protests (Maidan) to get rid of their dictator does not mean that Ukrainians think that they are the same or similar to Russians. We expect and hope for people all over the world to get rid of oppressive dictators. Especially when hundreds of thousands of people are dying. You can be different people and still have massive protests to force dictators out.
Excellent conversation! The discussion towards the end regarding Putin's conceptualizing of 'traitors' was particularly informative. Thanks for bringing us these expert guests, they repeatedly enlarge my understanding of this terrible war and Russian culture.
Okay, I have heard this argument before, in 1945, how much guilt to assign to the German people collectively for the crimes of the Nazi Party. The answer is a lot. How much the Germans were punished and how much they deserved that punishment is a philosophical question. I strongly suspect that the Russian people will be punished for the war and have only themselves to blame.
Hasn't Putin's popularity increased since his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine? I heard that 80 percent of Russians support his regime. If that's the case then it's difficult to feel bad for the average Russian as there are complicit the the crimes of the regime
Maybe 🤔 you need to consider the thinking of some of the Germans that influenced concepts such as “collective responsibility”. When Thomas Mann published “Germany and the Germans” most Americans did initially not understand what he was talking about, in particular as he was considered a “Good German” and example of great German culture. How about the Frankfurt School, a group of German social scientists that had to flee Nazi Germany but quite a few of them returned and continued their work after war? You need to look at your society when something like this happens… Antisemitism did not get invented by the Nazis, it existed in German society for centuries (even prior to the German state itself). How about German “hippie/ left wing/ student movement” of the 1960 and 1970 confronting the generation of their parents? Those German students picked up the work from Thomas Mann and the Frankfurt School when considering their parents and countries history. Germans have made active choices how to interpret and deal with their history. A vast majority of Germans agree with their countries “collective responsibility & absolute honesty/ no whitewashing” approach to their countries history, in particular when it comes to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Gerasimov said, "We will never be humiliated again." That sense of humiliation is central to Russia's thinking. It explains why Putin was so needled by Obama's description of Russia as a "regional power". What we are seeing is the rage of the underdog. To us, that is absurd, but to Russians it is a running sore, and it suppurated on 24th February.
Some Russians, anyway. Don't make John Mearsheimer's mistake of referring to "the Russians," as if Russia were monolithic. Of course, there is some self-selection at work, as many of those who've read the writing on the wall and and have the means and desire to leave Russia have done so.
I agree with you both. But these grievances are manufactured by state-controlled media, or in the case of the U.S., Murdoch-controlled FOX News, et al. World leaders and corporations have learned how to manipulate public opinion, even incite hatred and terrorism, and support for war-even cults of personality and idolatry that are evils for this Christian. As one originally trained in Slavic Studies myself, and who went on to study cultural anthropology and nationalism, I know that Ukrainians and Russians could in theory unite peacefully. But only one side has claimed its human right to self-determination, while the other is still trapped in submission to the Imperial Project.
@@markdouglas8073 Thx for the reminders of the role of all the authoritarian 'enablers' like Murdoch, the Koch bros., the former "p*ssy grabber-in-chief", et al.... and why not, when it's obvious that 'Grievance & Victimhood' _sells._
It is not the rage of the 'underdog', it's the rage of the sociopathic adolescent. The only country responsible for 'humiliating' Russia is Russia itself.
WIth the "Oligarch" situation between Russia & Ukraine, you are spot on, Oligarchy by the text book definition, implies roughly equal power between the oligarchs, this is what we have here in Ukraine and as Anton pointed out, Russia does not, Russia is not an Oligarchy, becasue the top dog is the only one with power, that is what is called a Kleptocracy, Putin and his ilk are all Kleptocrats not Oligarchs. Anyway, great stuff John, your work is top shelf!
@@markdouglas8073 oh yea, for sure he has his own power basewith his his wagner fiefdom, but he along with Kadyrov occupy a very special niche, these guys are true "warlords" and are a cut way above the average kleptocrat but they still can't come nywhere near challenging the top dog, but anywauy getting to your point, for sure they are culpable and responsible for what goes on on within their fiefdoms. no arguments there!
Excellent question about culpability of economists who maintain Russian machine. I think anyone, soldiers, nurses, propagandists, who helps the invasion, is responsible.
The big question is why had there been no real campaign of resistance to the war… no videos of protest like those that emerged in Iran… no general strike… its shameful really… a stain on Russia’s history…
after this war is over the political situation in Russia will be like the 90s on steroids the worse political situation since the 1917 revolution. noting many factors such as : 1. economic collapse, 2. Thousands of soldiers not paid going back to a economically collapsed Russia. 3. massive anger at the Russian gov. 4. Russian oligarchs forming their own PMCs(when political factions have their own private armies and the strong leader is gone, well this does not end well). 5. foreign meddling in the Russian political situation post Putin. 6. No strong leader after Putin is gone. 6. Secessionists. I dont think the Russian Fed will collapse and break up however I do think the Russian fed will lose territory to seccesionists.
Loss of tax and oil/mineral revenues is having a big impact. The printing presses for roubles will start soon. This means the soldiers will be paid but the money will possibly be more than a little worthless. It looks like the Russian people are very lethargic and they do love to suffer so I would not expect any action from them. As for PMCs I suspect there is an open window with Yevgeny Prigozhin's name on it. Upstaging Putin is not a good strategy. All in all I would expect widespread poverty moving forward. No action but criminal groups in the west doing black market deals with criminal groups in Russia. Less profitable for the Russians but the 90 year old Politburo members (was it really ever scrapped?) will be very happy.
Not necessarily. The war could have the effect of tightening authoritarianism and the Russian people could come out more strongly in support of Putin with a heightened sense of grievance underpinned by fear of facing up to their own complicity if they acknowledge the reality of what the leader they gave licence to has done.
FSB will create different marionettes, but generals with troops will say BS. Regional minorities will coalesce. Oil and gas exports will fall off to nothing. Petersburg and Moscow will have their revolutions.
I tend to agree. More authoritarian? Maybe an attempt in that direction, but in SiCu's recent discussion, Vasilina _("that name does not mean what you think it means")_ Orlova observed that Russians are not total pushovers in terms of rights. Rather, typical Russian citizens have a different set of native rights than citizens of democracies. The Russians won't turn into compliant Chinese overnight, nor will the country spontaneously break out in democracy. I do think the country will start fragmenting from it's federated condition.
@@oldernu1250 Yep the upcoming Russian civl war will be a MESS, multi faction civil war similiar to the 1917 to 1922 civil war, with various oligarch private armies or coalitions of them vs. secessionists, vs. nationalists, vs. warlord/bandits vs. liberal democrats etc. When you have Russian oligarchs forming their own PMCs, like wagner, Patriot, Gazoprom(yes they just formed their own PMC) etc. and Putin is gone and no strong leader to replace him what happens next in a battle for succession, and in the political chaos secessionists like Chechens will take advantage.
Just ran across your channel... currently bingeing... has instantly become a go to for info during this current war...thanks for your hard work and time bringing together great interviews.
@Jonathan, At times I'm late to the show. There's one point Mr Shekhovtsov doesn't fully get right: you don't have to be the same people, a single nation to influence another country and thus to form an inspirational risk. Therefore, there's no contradiction in Ukrainians claiming to be a separate nation with their own national project and at the same time asking Russians why they don't do their own Euro-Maidan. Agreed, for Putin they're a single people and thus form the same existential threat to his regime as the German Federal Republic (West-Germany) was to the German (un-)Democratic Republic (East-Germany) was: both considered themselves to be Germans and those from the East saw the differences in living standards, freedom and life style on a daily basis by watching West-German television. It led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and as a result of the GDR and the entire Russian empire in its Soviet guise at a time Putin was there as a KGB agent who wasn't permitted to act against it. Putin's hatred of traitors must have been fueled by what he views as his inept or cowardly or weak bosses, up to Gorbachev. They destroyed his sense of safety and greatness, forcing him to start all over again. But this phenomenon is not restricted to countries who consider themselves as a single people or even nation. An example: the highly nationalistic Hungarians revolted against communism in 1956, just one year after the Soviets (and the Americans, British and French) had ended the partitioning of Austria by moving their armies out of it and agreeing to it having a neutral status. The Hungarians don't consider themselves to be Austrians, but they share a common history, and are neighbours of a similar size. Hungarians were inspired to demand a similar treatment. Another example, since WW2 the Chinese hate the Japanese for the atrocities committed during the Japanese occupation of parts of China (the rape of Nanjing for instance). Yet, it was Japan's economic miracle after WW2 (thanks to its newfound relationship with the US) that inspired Deng Xiaoping to copy this approach (seemingly), especially after that he saw how South-Korea and Taiwan were already following along that path. This is what professor Stephen Kotkin calls a "sphere of influence". I find this term unlucky, because that term already has a 19th century imperialistic meaning: not (yet) our colony, but you as a major power, you stay out of this (part of that) weaker country, or you're in for a war: Russia in Iran's part of Azerbaijan, Great-Britain in Iran's part of Baluchistan. The same two empires had their zones of influence in China: Outer Mongolia and Xinjian for Russia and Tibet for Great-Britain. It's this 19th century concept that is being applied by Putin and Dr Mearsheimer as still being perfectly valid. What Dr Stephen Kotkin describes, is rather how (geo-)political innovations diffuse: as with any innovation you're more inclined to adopt them when those you deem to be most like you and with whom you have frequent contact, have adopted them seemingly successfully, because then the move appears to become less risky than if a totally incomparable party or comparable party with whom you don't have much interaction, does it: as a social mammal we are inclined to copy those who are closest to us. See Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, 5th edition. (One of the most cited books in sociology.) Whatever Putin does, Russians will always see Ukrainians as rather quite like them,. Regardless the amount of propaganda fed to them, the Russians will never look to the Turks, the Stans or China for inspiration. Russia may not be a Western country (in Kotkin's definition: a democracy under the rule of law where the primacy of the individual prevails), but it will always remain a European country. And thus an independent and democratic Ukraine will always remain a threat to Russian autocratic rule and imperial fantasies, but the opposite is gone. One doesn't look at Mordor for inspiration. Conclusion: unlike what Mr Shekhovtsov states, there is no contradiction: the Ukrainians are right to claim simultaneously that they are a separate nation and that Russians should do their own Euro-Maidan. Thank you for another great interview, and for the pace at which you are publishing them.
Lot of really heavy subjects in there when it comes to the insanely blinkered means of high level decision making, the culture of fear and the apparent lack of foresight in both the decisions made and the complete lack of perspective on external forces. A lot of people might dismiss it as being too far fetched, but in reality you only have to look at certain other institutions that operate within a silo-environment when they are forced to interact with someone else outside. So this is sort of the extreme end of the wedge when it comes to what is essentially a mix of bureaucracy, politics and money that it becomes even more exaggerated by the time you get to Putin + cronies. I guess if there's an upside to any of that behaviour is that eventually the mistakes they make will be so horrendous that they end up in some irretrievable situation that they can't throw someone under the bus or out of a window to take the fall for the mistake. Until then, well its still going to suck quite a bit for a while yet and while I would dearly love to see justice through some kind of prosecution for the crimes I'm not really holding out hope a lot of these rats will ever see themselves defending their actions.
Allowing free speech to those we disagree with is not a 'weakness'. On the contrary, it is our greatest strength. Dissent is the life-blood of democracy.
Dissent yes. But collusion with enemy regimes - that’s not covered by freedom of expression… if it’s shown someone is expressing views that have been bought by foreign power intent on destroying democracy, then a different approach is required…
Sweden and Finland was one country for 700 years, until the war with Russia in 1809, when Russia annexed Finland. It became an independent country in 1917. Five % of the finns have swedish as their mother tongue. Sweden would never invade Finland because of their Swedish speaking part of the population!
If I compare Iranians protesting with Russians not protesting, it doesn’t mean that I think they’re the same..saying that Ukrainians think they are the same as Russians because they don’t understand why Russians don’t have a Maidan is total bs
Compared to the verbal diarrhea and toxic rhetoric of populists and Putin propagandists this was a breath of fresh air. However, if Putin's popularity increased since his illegal invasion and has the support of 80 percent of the population then it gets hard to feel sympathetic to the average Russian
As I understand it, Russia has commited many genocides. All the Crimean Tartars, for example, had been killed or deported by 1979. Putin, Ukraine & Belarus are not exceptional.
One man cannot wage war, Putin requires armies of enablers who will be held accountable for their actions or lack of, what is overlooked in this interview is the complete lack of a civil society in Russia if they are not there they cannot rise up and rebel against Putin.
We’ve covered this in lots of detail in other interviews. I agree absolutely, the scale and vigour of Ukrainian civil society is what distinguishes it from Russian. This is address quite well in the interview with Andrei Soldatov…
Important to note that Putin and his regime were created, nurtured and continue to be supported by Russian general society (save for a very few notable exceptions). This follows a historic pattern in that society that is well understood by scholars. Therefore we shouldn’t fool ourselves that regime change is the answer.
Very interesting conversation. I am deeply disappointed with all the various intelligence services, that they couldn't provide this level of advice with all the resources they had. Pathetic in the extreme. We have ceded too much trust and power to our decision makers. They are totality unfit for purpose. Absolute donkeys the lot of them! God help the future generations that have to live with the consequences. 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄
@Jonathan, Re: your plans to expand one day to cover other threats to our democracies, like the Chinese social credit system. Check once the following interview by the Spectator journalist Cindy Yu for her program "Chinese Whispers": "Myth-busting China's social credit system". Very informative and two interesting interviewee candidates if you would like to dig further into the matter. Best wishes
"There is always an element of truth behind my novels" - Ian Fleming... Could Putin be a 'Bond' villain. 'The World is not Enough.' A 'Black Hole' that even consumes any ray of light.
If ever there was an event that could be summed up by the meme of the guy putting a stick in his own front wheel and then blaming others, it would be putin in Ukraine
Shekhovesky sounded fine, but there is something wrong with your mic, your settings, or perhaps you're simply sitting too close to the mic. Too much difference in volume between the voices also. Please get the sound right.
This definition of Putin’s personal goals in his War On Ukraine make the assassination of Putin a key Objective. Killing him personally removes his personal Objective. The leader coming after Putin may be equal in brutality. Nevertheless, the risk model via this analysis means gives 90% to less brutal. The success of a Putin assassination would very risky. However, the payoff for success would be extraordinarily great. This analysis therefore, almost green lights an assassination attempt. How? Maybe a Stinger shot at his helicopter. The attempt would have to make sure it was on him and not a body double imposter. The Chinese discussion is not well founded. The Uighur minority are Muslims. There is zero support for this group in any part of the Muslim world. They are never mentioned by any moderate Muslims during economic talks with China. The radical Muslims ignore the Uighur. No Asian Muslim country such as Indonesia has ever offered sanctuary for Uighurs the way Israel offered sanctuary to Ethiopian Jews. Therefore, the West pushing the Uighur cause is a bit far fetch.
We in the West don't want Uighur suffering to end for any other reason than that we don't like people suffering. Just because the second-world has too many problems of their own to worry about others doesn't mean the first-world shouldn't worry either. By trading with China we prop up a nasty, anti-democratic regime.
@@toi_techno There are many reasons to cut some trade ties to China. Uighur suffering only be an afterthought if anything is actually done. The West will not and often cannot fix every perceived wrong in the world. Some Uighurs fought US troops in Afghanistan. These are not the 1ST group the US would help.
There's really no need for an assassination attempt on Putin at this time. Putin has enormous personal assets in the West, something he really cares about. Is anyone is even trying to use this for leverage?
@@mikefallwell1301 Create an international RICO law and go after Putin’s daughters and their assets as part of an ongoing criminal conspiracy to steal from the Russian people.
Our belief about Ukraine's similarity to or difference from Russia is irrelevant, if the Russians view the two countries as culturally similar (they do) they may see them as a guide or inspiration.
Not sure I understand the point? Russia is committing a genocidal war, because it views Ukrainians as a kind of untermenschen… what are they ‘learning’? They’re just annihilating as far as I can tell…
@@SiliconCurtain The argument was made that Putin fears a democratic Ukraine b/c he knows Russians view Ukrainians as culturally similar, and hence might be inspired to push for more democracy in Russia. The rebuttal was that this was not a real concern for Putin b/c it was now obvious to us in the West that there is little actual cultural similarity between Russia and Ukraine. My point is that this observation is irrelevant, since OUR opinion about Ukraine isn’t what worries Putin. He is worried that Russians think they are culturally similar, and no one suggested that Russians have updated their priors.
Doesn’t it all come down to Russian revenues from oil, gas and commodities. Fight your customers and lose your markets. Rise of Putin parallels rise in oil prices. Russian oil still in the market but net backs much lower for Russia.
A 'catalyst' is always needed. Maybe if Putin's 'wings' were clipped 20 years ago, these terrible historical events may have been avoided... PBS Frontline Documentary: 'The Putin Files: Former CIA director John Brennan.'
The thing I’m struggling to understand is the reason why 🇷🇺 resort to violence throughout history. Why they, even intellectuals and oppositionists are absolutely ok with their shameful, lowest acts as human beings in this day and age?
It's interesting how many of the old Russian writers and scholars speak of this cruelty and lack of humanity within Russians. Is it a kill or be killed, thrive or die situation they have had to navigate for centuries?
I think it would be really interesting to have some discussion, or even better some real factual information about the "background" of this conflict, basically removing the propaganda (of either side), as a lot of "pundits" seem to at the very least cherry-pick the facts if not indulge in total fiction. The issues I would like to be addressed are: 1) When the USSR dissolved was there a referendum in Ukraine to decide for independence or not, what was the result not just nationally but specifically in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. 2) Prior to 2014 was any of the alleged discrimination against "ethnic Russians" for real? 3) When the independists in the Donbas started to occupy local seats of power was the majority of the local population in agreement with them? 4) The two Minsk agreements, what do they entail? 5) Who committed the most violations to the agreements in the following months and years?
Most of these are easy to answer with a simple google search. Most of my interviews are at the next stage once people have ascertained these answers. The desire for dependence was overwhelming in every part of the country. And Ukraine was attacked - it did not ‘cause’ or ‘provoke’ the Russian invasion of 2014…
Another excellent interview, Jonathan. While watching I was struck by the quality and lucidness of discourse within western and Ukrainian media, as exemplified by Mr. Shekhovtsov, and the unhinged irrationality I see coming out of Russia. Thank you for promoting and amplifying the former.
and that Ru unhinged talk u see out of Ru, is based on their way of thinking and practice of information-manipulation that is the Ru way of life and statism. Most in the west don't grasp what russians have been like for many many decades, which is that everything they say is a lie. Their shallow way of being is something they're infamous for and we see the ultimate conclusion of it now, i.e indiffernce to atrocities for their own meaningless purposes, in this case, to get a bit of industrial lands including coal mines and a sea port area that has resorts as well. But Ru had other ports nearby, so it's pure avaristic greed. The best experts Fink has had on here have pointed out that Putin is only motivated probably by a very simplistic greed and desire for personal power, with just a sub facade of rebuilding a greater russia in mystical b.s. terms. I've studied history all my long life including at the best international affairs school in the USa and one of the best in the world. I've also studied a lot about behavior. I agree that Putin and his pals are simple and that means there's only a few ways to handle them, and it involves the demonstration/threat of violence. We have the upper hand by far and away and it's time to get going.
FULLY AGREED 👍👍👍
I'm completely at a loss. To know thousands of Ukrainian children are in Russian re-education camps is distressing. Give me a moment. I'm talking myself down
It’s a heartbreaking tragedy. So many of these children will be traumatised. All will be abused mentally with Russian Z propaganda. Some will be abused physically. This issue above all have led me to reassess everything I thought I knew about Russia.
Sounds like Stalin or Mao.
I asked Konstantin if he and his fellow Russians against the war on Ukraine would look for these children and report any information to Ukraine government. Konstantin actually visited an Orphanage for Ukrainian children in Rostov a year ago. He and his wife bought supplies and took them to the Orphanage. He did a video if it and posted on his yt channel, INSIDE RUSSIA. That's how I found out. I told Ukraine govt about the video. We don't talk about it for obvious reasons so what happened after that, I know nothing. Konstantin has left Russia with his family as many sane, humane Russians have. They might be working on stuff they won't talk about. Just speaking out about what is happening in Russia puts Konstantin in constant danger. His live stream is about to start. He presents very good, researched information about inside russia current events.
Im here again. RussianZ are bombing Ukraine 😕 i have no words
Another really high quality interview/conversation, many thanks.
Excellent content....Excellent speaker, confirming our justified hatred of Putin and his regime; and I have come to respect his insight and tradecraft through this interview....Here is just a little bit of his significant contribution: "and I think we should know that every person in Russia who is successful, economically, financially successful, politically successful, those people they know that without the Putin regime they would be nothing - so their stakes, yeah, they put their stakes on the survival of the Putin regime no matter what mistakes it does because without it, you know, they owe Putin what they have. So they would need to go along". "I believe that there are no true oligarchs in Russia because the term itself presupposes that you have power....you may have wealth, you may be rich, but you will never have power". "You can either do politics or you can be rich....you have to follow the line". Ukraine developed quite differently between the 90's ....like a proto-democracy in a way, because those were also interest groups who would also have their own political interests.... because between oligarchs you would have competition you would also have political competition....it was a natural process...having those oligarchs... in Ukraine.......OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA, OUTSIDE OF THE CRUMBLED USSR. IMO, it is prima fascia evidence that Ukraine was ALWAYS different from RUS. It was always itself, it was always a "nation", it was always a SPEAKING GROUP of unique people, as you have shown quite powerfully Jonathan from the MANY AND VARIOUS SPEAKER you have had on your show. Bravo again, well done. And thank you ANTON SHEKHOVTSOV - valuable academian.
Great, thanks so much for setting this interview up, very illuminating.
NO POLITICIAN should hold office long enough to start worrying about their Legacy...
I appreciate very much your selection of knowledgable people and the intelligent way you interview them. You represent one of the most interesting and informative media on the cataclysmic changes involved by the terrible Russian agression against the Ukrainian people and national state.
👍
I think the major problem with the argumentation is not if Ukrainians look like Russians, smell like Russians or even speak russian language but only if the conviction of the Ukrainians is not to be Russians it has to be enough to accept that the`re not Russians. It`s their will. There is plenty simmilar countrys speaking same language. Else all english speaking countries would have to be considered to be England. Same with other Languages spoken within different countries. It`s a choice and a fight between autoritarism and free will.
Absolutely right.
Great interview again. Highly informative. Thank you so much, Jonathan. I always look forward to your podcasts. 🇺🇦
Another excellent episode. The speaker challenges lazy thinking seen in the West - and reminds everyone that the real world is very complicated.
Wonderful conversation!
16:14 Asking why the Russians don’t have their our protests (Maidan) to get rid of their dictator does not mean that Ukrainians think that they are the same or similar to Russians. We expect and hope for people all over the world to get rid of oppressive dictators. Especially when hundreds of thousands of people are dying. You can be different people and still have massive protests to force dictators out.
One of the most interesting interviews on the war in Ukraine
Very good conversation. Thank you!
Excellent conversation! The discussion towards the end regarding Putin's conceptualizing of 'traitors' was particularly informative. Thanks for bringing us these expert guests, they repeatedly enlarge my understanding of this terrible war and Russian culture.
👍 I’ll keep doing this, for as long as Russia is a threat, and will start to cover other threats to democracy too.
Okay, I have heard this argument before, in 1945, how much guilt to assign to the German people collectively for the crimes of the Nazi Party. The answer is a lot. How much the Germans were punished and how much they deserved that punishment is a philosophical question. I strongly suspect that the Russian people will be punished for the war and have only themselves to blame.
I'm conflicted over the whole thing about culpability and blame. The system under which those considered "culpable" must be factored in.
Hasn't Putin's popularity increased since his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine? I heard that 80 percent of Russians support his regime. If that's the case then it's difficult to feel bad for the average Russian as there are complicit the the crimes of the regime
Vlad vexler did a piece on this exact problem
Maybe 🤔 you need to consider the thinking of some of the Germans that influenced concepts such as “collective responsibility”. When Thomas Mann published “Germany and the Germans” most Americans did initially not understand what he was talking about, in particular as he was considered a “Good German” and example of great German culture. How about the Frankfurt School, a group of German social scientists that had to flee Nazi Germany but quite a few of them returned and continued their work after war? You need to look at your society when something like this happens… Antisemitism did not get invented by the Nazis, it existed in German society for centuries (even prior to the German state itself). How about German “hippie/ left wing/ student movement” of the 1960 and 1970 confronting the generation of their parents? Those German students picked up the work from Thomas Mann and the Frankfurt School when considering their parents and countries history. Germans have made active choices how to interpret and deal with their history. A vast majority of Germans agree with their countries “collective responsibility & absolute honesty/ no whitewashing” approach to their countries history, in particular when it comes to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Gerasimov said, "We will never be humiliated again." That sense of humiliation is central to Russia's thinking. It explains why Putin was so needled by Obama's description of Russia as a "regional power". What we are seeing is the rage of the underdog. To us, that is absurd, but to Russians it is a running sore, and it suppurated on 24th February.
Some Russians, anyway. Don't make John Mearsheimer's mistake of referring to "the Russians," as if Russia were monolithic.
Of course, there is some self-selection at work, as many of those who've read the writing on the wall and and have the means and desire to leave Russia have done so.
I agree with you both. But these grievances are manufactured by state-controlled media, or in the case of the U.S., Murdoch-controlled FOX News, et al. World leaders and corporations have learned how to manipulate public opinion, even incite hatred and terrorism, and support for war-even cults of personality and idolatry that are evils for this Christian. As one originally trained in Slavic Studies myself, and who went on to study cultural anthropology and nationalism, I know that Ukrainians and Russians could in theory unite peacefully. But only one side has claimed its human right to self-determination, while the other is still trapped in submission to the Imperial Project.
I couldn't help but think of China and their long-standing feelings of being humiliated by the west.
@@markdouglas8073 Thx for the reminders of the role of all the authoritarian 'enablers' like Murdoch, the Koch bros., the former "p*ssy grabber-in-chief", et al.... and why not, when it's obvious that 'Grievance & Victimhood' _sells._
It is not the rage of the 'underdog', it's the rage of the sociopathic adolescent. The only country responsible for 'humiliating' Russia is Russia itself.
Bravo!
WIth the "Oligarch" situation between Russia & Ukraine, you are spot on, Oligarchy by the text book definition, implies roughly equal power between the oligarchs, this is what we have here in Ukraine and as Anton pointed out, Russia does not, Russia is not an Oligarchy, becasue the top dog is the only one with power, that is what is called a Kleptocracy, Putin and his ilk are all Kleptocrats not Oligarchs. Anyway, great stuff John, your work is top shelf!
I think you are correct. But that doesn’t mean others like Prigozhin should not be held culpable.
@@markdouglas8073 oh yea, for sure he has his own power basewith his his wagner fiefdom, but he along with Kadyrov occupy a very special niche, these guys are true "warlords" and are a cut way above the average kleptocrat but they still can't come nywhere near challenging the top dog, but anywauy getting to your point, for sure they are culpable and responsible for what goes on on within their fiefdoms. no arguments there!
Excellent question about culpability of economists who maintain Russian machine. I think anyone, soldiers, nurses, propagandists, who helps the invasion, is responsible.
The big question is why had there been no real campaign of resistance to the war… no videos of protest like those that emerged in Iran… no general strike… its shameful really… a stain on Russia’s history…
I'm not so sure I would go so far as to include the likes of nurses? There is a line to be drawn somewhere.
Superb interview, thank you, extremely insightful.
Great channel! Regards from 🇦🇷
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after this war is over the political situation in Russia will be like the 90s on steroids the worse political situation since the 1917 revolution. noting many factors such as : 1. economic collapse, 2. Thousands of soldiers not paid going back to a economically collapsed Russia. 3. massive anger at the Russian gov. 4. Russian oligarchs forming their own PMCs(when political factions have their own private armies and the strong leader is gone, well this does not end well). 5. foreign meddling in the Russian political situation post Putin. 6. No strong leader after Putin is gone. 6. Secessionists. I dont think the Russian Fed will collapse and break up however I do think the Russian fed will lose territory to seccesionists.
Loss of tax and oil/mineral revenues is having a big impact. The printing presses for roubles will start soon. This means the soldiers will be paid but the money will possibly be more than a little worthless. It looks like the Russian people are very lethargic and they do love to suffer so I would not expect any action from them. As for PMCs I suspect there is an open window with Yevgeny Prigozhin's name on it. Upstaging Putin is not a good strategy. All in all I would expect widespread poverty moving forward. No action but criminal groups in the west doing black market deals with criminal groups in Russia. Less profitable for the Russians but the 90 year old Politburo members (was it really ever scrapped?) will be very happy.
Not necessarily. The war could have the effect of tightening authoritarianism and the Russian people could come out more strongly in support of Putin with a heightened sense of grievance underpinned by fear of facing up to their own complicity if they acknowledge the reality of what the leader they gave licence to has done.
FSB will create different marionettes, but generals with troops will say BS. Regional minorities will coalesce. Oil and gas exports will fall off to nothing. Petersburg and Moscow will have their revolutions.
I tend to agree. More authoritarian? Maybe an attempt in that direction, but in SiCu's recent discussion, Vasilina _("that name does not mean what you think it means")_ Orlova observed that Russians are not total pushovers in terms of rights. Rather, typical Russian citizens have a different set of native rights than citizens of democracies. The Russians won't turn into compliant Chinese overnight, nor will the country spontaneously break out in democracy.
I do think the country will start fragmenting from it's federated condition.
@@oldernu1250 Yep the upcoming Russian civl war will be a MESS, multi faction civil war similiar to the 1917 to 1922 civil war, with various oligarch private armies or coalitions of them vs. secessionists, vs. nationalists, vs. warlord/bandits vs. liberal democrats etc. When you have Russian oligarchs forming their own PMCs, like wagner, Patriot, Gazoprom(yes they just formed their own PMC) etc. and Putin is gone and no strong leader to replace him what happens next in a battle for succession, and in the political chaos secessionists like Chechens will take advantage.
Just ran across your channel... currently bingeing... has instantly become a go to for info during this current war...thanks for your hard work and time bringing together great interviews.
👍 glad you found it! It’s a challenge to stand out against all the noise on TH-cam!
Gratuitous comment fort channel stats. Outstanding as usual, Mr Curtain!
I appreciate your thoughtful approach.
Slava Ukraïni
Yes, it's long overdue. It started in '91 now this attempt will not move the clock backwards but forward and speed it up !
Excellent work, as always.
👍
@Jonathan,
At times I'm late to the show.
There's one point Mr Shekhovtsov doesn't fully get right: you don't have to be the same people, a single nation to influence another country and thus to form an inspirational risk.
Therefore, there's no contradiction in Ukrainians claiming to be a separate nation with their own national project and at the same time asking Russians why they don't do their own Euro-Maidan.
Agreed, for Putin they're a single people and thus form the same existential threat to his regime as the German Federal Republic (West-Germany) was to the German (un-)Democratic Republic (East-Germany) was: both considered themselves to be Germans and those from the East saw the differences in living standards, freedom and life style on a daily basis by watching West-German television.
It led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and as a result of the GDR and the entire Russian empire in its Soviet guise at a time Putin was there as a KGB agent who wasn't permitted to act against it. Putin's hatred of traitors must have been fueled by what he views as his inept or cowardly or weak bosses, up to Gorbachev. They destroyed his sense of safety and greatness, forcing him to start all over again.
But this phenomenon is not restricted to countries who consider themselves as a single people or even nation.
An example: the highly nationalistic Hungarians revolted against communism in 1956, just one year after the Soviets (and the Americans, British and French) had ended the partitioning of Austria by moving their armies out of it and agreeing to it having a neutral status.
The Hungarians don't consider themselves to be Austrians, but they share a common history, and are neighbours of a similar size. Hungarians were inspired to demand a similar treatment.
Another example, since WW2 the Chinese hate the Japanese for the atrocities committed during the Japanese occupation of parts of China (the rape of Nanjing for instance).
Yet, it was Japan's economic miracle after WW2 (thanks to its newfound relationship with the US) that inspired Deng Xiaoping to copy this approach (seemingly), especially after that he saw how South-Korea and Taiwan were already following along that path.
This is what professor Stephen Kotkin calls a "sphere of influence".
I find this term unlucky, because that term already has a 19th century imperialistic meaning: not (yet) our colony, but you as a major power, you stay out of this (part of that) weaker country, or you're in for a war: Russia in Iran's part of Azerbaijan, Great-Britain in Iran's part of Baluchistan. The same two empires had their zones of influence in China: Outer Mongolia and Xinjian for Russia and Tibet for Great-Britain.
It's this 19th century concept that is being applied by Putin and Dr Mearsheimer as still being perfectly valid.
What Dr Stephen Kotkin describes, is rather how (geo-)political innovations diffuse: as with any innovation you're more inclined to adopt them when those you deem to be most like you and with whom you have frequent contact, have adopted them seemingly successfully, because then the move appears to become less risky than if a totally incomparable party or comparable party with whom you don't have much interaction, does it: as a social mammal we are inclined to copy those who are closest to us.
See Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, 5th edition. (One of the most cited books in sociology.)
Whatever Putin does, Russians will always see Ukrainians as rather quite like them,. Regardless the amount of propaganda fed to them, the Russians will never look to the Turks, the Stans or China for inspiration. Russia may not be a Western country (in Kotkin's definition: a democracy under the rule of law where the primacy of the individual prevails), but it will always remain a European country.
And thus an independent and democratic Ukraine will always remain a threat to Russian autocratic rule and imperial fantasies, but the opposite is gone. One doesn't look at Mordor for inspiration.
Conclusion: unlike what Mr Shekhovtsov states, there is no contradiction: the Ukrainians are right to claim simultaneously that they are a separate nation and that Russians should do their own Euro-Maidan.
Thank you for another great interview, and for the pace at which you are publishing them.
Lot of really heavy subjects in there when it comes to the insanely blinkered means of high level decision making, the culture of fear and the apparent lack of foresight in both the decisions made and the complete lack of perspective on external forces. A lot of people might dismiss it as being too far fetched, but in reality you only have to look at certain other institutions that operate within a silo-environment when they are forced to interact with someone else outside. So this is sort of the extreme end of the wedge when it comes to what is essentially a mix of bureaucracy, politics and money that it becomes even more exaggerated by the time you get to Putin + cronies.
I guess if there's an upside to any of that behaviour is that eventually the mistakes they make will be so horrendous that they end up in some irretrievable situation that they can't throw someone under the bus or out of a window to take the fall for the mistake. Until then, well its still going to suck quite a bit for a while yet and while I would dearly love to see justice through some kind of prosecution for the crimes I'm not really holding out hope a lot of these rats will ever see themselves defending their actions.
Thank you!
Another great interview Jonathan. Some very thought-provoking topics in there, I'm going to go on the hunt for his books.
Joe Blogs TH-cam channel just published a review of figures posted by Russian authorities on Kremlin Budgeting for huge 2023 deficients.
Cannot disagree with anything. Thank you.
Allowing free speech to those we disagree with is not a 'weakness'. On the contrary, it is our greatest strength. Dissent is the life-blood of democracy.
Dissent yes. But collusion with enemy regimes - that’s not covered by freedom of expression… if it’s shown someone is expressing views that have been bought by foreign power intent on destroying democracy, then a different approach is required…
at 30 min in he blew my mind with things usually un said
Sweden and Finland was one country for 700 years, until the war with Russia in 1809, when Russia annexed Finland. It became an independent country in 1917. Five % of the finns have swedish as their mother tongue. Sweden would never invade Finland because of their Swedish speaking part of the population!
Good point.
Great video!
If I compare Iranians protesting with Russians not protesting, it doesn’t mean that I think they’re the same..saying that Ukrainians think they are the same as Russians because they don’t understand why Russians don’t have a Maidan is total bs
Compared to the verbal diarrhea and toxic rhetoric of populists and Putin propagandists this was a breath of fresh air.
However, if Putin's popularity increased since his illegal invasion and has the support of 80 percent of the population then it gets hard to feel sympathetic to the average Russian
How did Germany and Japan become democratized? They lost WWII. They learned from that.
Gotta make a correction: Russia is not "Europe's last empire", France is also.
Still?
@@SiliconCurtain Yeah. Because of them the EU is on every continent. Even the Arctic, if I remember correctly.
As I understand it, Russia has commited many genocides. All the Crimean Tartars, for example, had been killed or deported by 1979. Putin, Ukraine & Belarus are not exceptional.
Stealing and killing… it’s the Russian way.
One man cannot wage war, Putin requires armies of enablers who will be held accountable for their actions or lack of, what is overlooked in this interview is the complete lack of a civil society in Russia if they are not there they cannot rise up and rebel against Putin.
We’ve covered this in lots of detail in other interviews. I agree absolutely, the scale and vigour of Ukrainian civil society is what distinguishes it from Russian. This is address quite well in the interview with Andrei Soldatov…
Important to note that Putin and his regime were created, nurtured and continue to be supported by Russian general society (save for a very few notable exceptions). This follows a historic pattern in that society that is well understood by scholars. Therefore we shouldn’t fool ourselves that regime change is the answer.
Regime is definitely not the solution. Rather systemic change is required, and for that to happen, Russia may need to fragment…
@29:36 Scholz
Bingo!
Very interesting conversation. I am deeply disappointed with all the various intelligence services, that they couldn't provide this level of advice with all the resources they had. Pathetic in the extreme. We have ceded too much trust and power to our decision makers. They are totality unfit for purpose. Absolute donkeys the lot of them! God help the future generations that have to live with the consequences. 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄
Can you really trust the economic numbers coming out of Russia? I think not..
Definitely not!
@Jonathan,
Re: your plans to expand one day to cover other threats to our democracies, like the Chinese social credit system.
Check once the following interview by the Spectator journalist Cindy Yu for her program "Chinese Whispers": "Myth-busting China's social credit system".
Very informative and two interesting interviewee candidates if you would like to dig further into the matter.
Best wishes
Brilliant suggestion, thank you.
"There is always an element of truth behind my novels" - Ian Fleming... Could Putin be a 'Bond' villain. 'The World is not Enough.' A 'Black Hole' that even consumes any ray of light.
If ever there was an event that could be summed up by the meme of the guy putting a stick in his own front wheel and then blaming others, it would be putin in Ukraine
Where is the link for the infographic you mentioned at the end?
Great discussion!
Good prompt! Adding it now!
💛💙💜💙💛
What happened to the possessions of Chodorkovski after he was convicted?
Shekhovesky sounded fine, but there is something wrong with your mic, your settings, or perhaps you're simply sitting too close to the mic. Too much difference in volume between the voices also. Please get the sound right.
It often is this way on the channel. The charm of being in different places.
This definition of Putin’s personal goals in his War On Ukraine make the assassination of Putin a key Objective. Killing him personally removes his personal Objective. The leader coming after Putin may be equal in brutality. Nevertheless, the risk model via this analysis means gives 90% to less brutal.
The success of a Putin assassination would very risky. However, the payoff for success would be extraordinarily great. This analysis therefore, almost green lights an assassination attempt. How? Maybe a Stinger shot at his helicopter. The attempt would have to make sure it was on him and not a body double imposter.
The Chinese discussion is not well founded. The Uighur minority are Muslims. There is zero support for this group in any part of the Muslim world. They are never mentioned by any moderate Muslims during economic talks with China. The radical Muslims ignore the Uighur. No Asian Muslim country such as Indonesia has ever offered sanctuary for Uighurs the way Israel offered sanctuary to Ethiopian Jews. Therefore, the West pushing the Uighur cause is a bit far fetch.
We in the West don't want Uighur suffering to end for any other reason than that we don't like people suffering.
Just because the second-world has too many problems of their own to worry about others doesn't mean the first-world shouldn't worry either.
By trading with China we prop up a nasty, anti-democratic regime.
@@toi_techno There are many reasons to cut some trade ties to China. Uighur suffering only be an afterthought if anything is actually done. The West will not and often cannot fix every perceived wrong in the world. Some Uighurs fought US troops in Afghanistan. These are not the 1ST group the US would help.
There's really no need for an assassination attempt on Putin at this time. Putin has enormous personal assets in the West, something he really cares about. Is anyone is even trying to use this for leverage?
@@mikefallwell1301 Create an international RICO law and go after Putin’s daughters and their assets as part of an ongoing criminal conspiracy to steal from the Russian people.
Where is the link to the "fantastic kind of infographic"?
Added!
How many Russians directly benefit with Putin in power, oligarch's + all the politicians in United Russia; how many?
Our belief about Ukraine's similarity to or difference from Russia is irrelevant, if the Russians view the two countries as culturally similar (they do) they may see them as a guide or inspiration.
Not sure I understand the point? Russia is committing a genocidal war, because it views Ukrainians as a kind of untermenschen… what are they ‘learning’? They’re just annihilating as far as I can tell…
@@SiliconCurtain The argument was made that Putin fears a democratic Ukraine b/c he knows Russians view Ukrainians as culturally similar, and hence might be inspired to push for more democracy in Russia. The rebuttal was that this was not a real concern for Putin b/c it was now obvious to us in the West that there is little actual cultural similarity between Russia and Ukraine. My point is that this observation is irrelevant, since OUR opinion about Ukraine isn’t what worries Putin. He is worried that Russians think they are culturally similar, and no one suggested that Russians have updated their priors.
Doesn’t it all come down to Russian revenues from oil, gas and commodities. Fight your customers and lose your markets. Rise of Putin parallels rise in oil prices. Russian oil still in the market but net backs much lower for Russia.
A 'catalyst' is always needed. Maybe if Putin's 'wings' were clipped 20 years ago, these terrible historical events may have been avoided...
PBS Frontline Documentary: 'The Putin Files: Former CIA director John Brennan.'
The thing I’m struggling to understand is the reason why 🇷🇺 resort to violence throughout history. Why they, even intellectuals and oppositionists are absolutely ok with their shameful, lowest acts as human beings in this day and age?
It's interesting how many of the old Russian writers and scholars speak of this cruelty and lack of humanity within Russians. Is it a kill or be killed, thrive or die situation they have had to navigate for centuries?
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70th comment.
Sorry
Otherwise it would've been noice
I think it would be really interesting to have some discussion, or even better some real factual information about the "background" of this conflict, basically removing the propaganda (of either side), as a lot of "pundits" seem to at the very least cherry-pick the facts if not indulge in total fiction. The issues I would like to be addressed are:
1) When the USSR dissolved was there a referendum in Ukraine to decide for independence or not, what was the result not just nationally but specifically in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
2) Prior to 2014 was any of the alleged discrimination against "ethnic Russians" for real?
3) When the independists in the Donbas started to occupy local seats of power was the majority of the local population in agreement with them?
4) The two Minsk agreements, what do they entail?
5) Who committed the most violations to the agreements in the following months and years?
You're spouting Russian propagandist notions... Blaming Ukraine, the victim.
A touch of Whataboutism in the mix.
Most of these are easy to answer with a simple google search. Most of my interviews are at the next stage once people have ascertained these answers. The desire for dependence was overwhelming in every part of the country. And Ukraine was attacked - it did not ‘cause’ or ‘provoke’ the Russian invasion of 2014…
As to the mechanics of the ‘insurgency’ that Russia engineered, academic research is emerging now about that.
thats up to individuals not doing bizz with the chineese goverment.s corprates