This video was solely sponsored by the TH-cam channel, EarthquakeSim. Be sure to subscribe to his channel at www.youtube.com/@EarthquakeSim, where he makes numerous videos revolving around earthquake damage simulations and earthquake education! This video took 3 days to make, so I hope that you appreciated it.
Good job. One of your best. Damage in New Zealand would also be expected from such an event. We have had major tsunami damage here from the 1960s Southern Chilean subduction trench suck down event for example. And that is almost as far away from us as Cascadia. Also the bottom bathometry of the Kermadec trench provides a barrel for tsunami from that direction to focus on our eastern seaboard. ❤
There is a Japanese painting that shows a tsunami that came out of nowhere: it was caused by the 1700 quake. There is a ghost forest at Nisqually, Washington, that was created then also.
In Japan, this tsunami was known as "an orphan tsunami" as it was (strangely to locals) not associated with any earthquake people on the islands could feel.
The 1700 earthquake generated what was called an “orphan tsunami” in Japan, since it came without warning and without an earthquake that they could feel. Clear records of this orphan tsunami still exist, and once the year of the subduction earthquake was determined from tree rings from the corresponding ghost forests on the northwestern American coast, they could be matched up exactly enough that it was clearly the same event. The Japanese records gave the height of their tsunami as well as the date and time of day it arrived. Calculating back, it was possible to fix the time of the earthquake at 9 AM. Hence GeologyHub’s using this time in his simulation.
The spookiest part of this is how the 1700 quake was only confirmed via Japanese "orphan tsunami" records, Native oral accounts, and eventually studies of the coastal "ghost forests". It's like the analog of blind people finding an elephant.
cant tell your peoples history if you're murdered. at the time there were 10 million native am. spread throughout the landscape. im sure many witnessed it
My sister in law lives in Victoria. I was told never bring up the conversation of earthquakes. I don't understand why someone would want to live there if they were so afraid.
I live on Van Isle as well. I badly want to leave here and have for some years but I am retired, live on a sub-poverty pension and thus have no resources for any kind of move. So there is one reason why someone lives here and does not move. Moreover the population of the region affected by this subduction zone must be 20 million. Where do you suggest we all go and how do the vast majority pay for it. It is very simple for someone like you to tell us what to do, isn't it?
As an Oregon resident, I have visited Neskowin beach several times. The last time I was there I timed how long it would take to briskly walk to safety in the event of a future megathrust earthquake. It took me, an able-bodied geologist 15 minutes to get to the highway without trespassing over private property. Not even considering likely subsidence and liquefaction, I found 15 minutes to escape the tsunamis too long and haven't been back since.
If you were running full sprint through private property you could probably make it. Any healthy adult with enough sense to run from an imminent tsunami might be okay. Grandma and lil Timmy are screwed though…
You mentioned the difference between a normal wave and a tsunami wave. About 35 years ago, while living in Japan for a year, I was on the beach, walking directly at the water's edge. There were normal waves coming in all the time, until suddenly a different looking wave appeared. It was not very high; later I learned that this tsunami wave had a height of 15 cm or 6 inches. It pulled me off my feet and started dragging me out to sea. Only because the water was not very deep was I able to dig my hands into the sand, remain at the beach and ride out this little wave. I was very surprised and rather impressed.
I live in a flood prone area. Just 12 inches of water can sweep a car off the road. Six inches is plenty to knock an adult off their feet, less for a child. Growing up, the street would flood a few inches. My parents warned me we could not cross the water, because even that little bit will sweep us away down the storm drain. Moving water is so powerful.
@@rebeccaw8820 the Japanese coast experiences frequent tsunamis. Most are very small, like the one I experienced, others can be monstrous, like the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami 11 March 2011 that caused a nuclear disaster. The Pacific is geologically a highly active region. Japan is located in a very active place, sitting on 3 or 4 different tectonic plates that all move independently. While size 6 earthquakes at land od sea are rare along the Pacific coast of North America, they occur almost weekly in Japan and naturally smaller ones even more.
Thanks for using my 3D earthquake simulations and for spreading awareness about this topic! The Big One expected on the San Andreas fault would affect an area 10 times smaller, just to put it in perspective. The potential impact is staggering, and it’s clear that understanding and preparing for this event is crucial. Thanks for shedding light on such an important issue!
A large Cascadia mega-thrust earthquake can act as a trigger for an overdue San Andreas earthquake, which would devastate the entire US West coast at the same time. A San Andreas event is also overdue. A quote from Wikipedia: "A 2008 paper, studying past earthquakes along the Pacific coastal zone, found a correlation in time between seismic events on the northern San Andreas Fault and the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone (which stretches from Vancouver Island to northern California). Scientists believe quakes on the Cascadia subduction zone may have triggered most of the major quakes on the northern San Andreas within the past 3,000 years. The evidence also shows the rupture direction going from north to south in each of these time-correlated events." Has anybody modeled the effects and casualties from such a a dual earthquake event?
@@mfreel1657 - You do know that Portland isn't on the coast, right? So long as they aren't next to a brick building in Old Town/China Town, or above a ruptured gas line, or under an overpass, just fine, at least initially. Collapsing tents don't cause much in the way of injury. 😃 There are homeless people in every major metro area in the USA. Rent is stupidly high in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and San Diego, so that majorly contributes to the issue on the West Coast.
What I love about your content is that you cover topics with enough details to get the point across while being succinct in your delivery. No wasted time or words on baseless conjecture or fumbled words. You don't repeat things unnecessarily and your videos are digestible in size. I know longer videos are hard, and I wanted to thank you for your time and effort. Your one of my favorite channels because of how you deliver the information.
I live in the Phoenix area. The initial disaster would be bad enough, but how about all the various items that come into the West Coast that would NOT be available for months and possibly years while the Ports are being reconstructed? This type of disaster would really adversely affect the entire USA.
Truth. What About Shipping’s Channel and others like Wendover Productions have pointed out that the US actually has relatively few seaports that handle container shipping. Take out any one and that severely impacts logistics.
@@SkibidisconesYellowstone is extremely unlikely to ever have another large eruption. I'd worry about the other 2 super volcanos that are nearly as large as Yellowstone in California and New Mexico.
What really scares me about this is how unprepared the PNW is. Japan and Chile have both had colossal earthquakes, however both were well seasoned to dealing with such a disaster and were able to weather the storm, albeit with great cost. Many people in the PNW however seem to be rather oblivious to how destructive the regions geology can be, seeing as the past couple centuries have been remarkably quiet. We don't really get frequent large magnitude earthquakes to remind us of how unstable our region really is, and St Helens is the only volcano anyone remembers going off and it was in a very fortunate position to not cause much damage despite all the hype it receives. Many people would be caught very off guard and many structures in the region do not look like they would hold up well (the amount of brick and concrete buildings in such an earthquake prone area is kind of shocking). Needless to say, the unpreparedness alone would magnify the effects of this, and the region would take many many years to truly recover.
This is why I'm constantly angry at my government here in BC. In Mexico, they have an alert system that warns them of impending earthquakes. Here in BC, they refuse to set up detection buoys that could give us in BC 80-100 seconds of notice to get to a safer spot. They always say that they are working on it but it never gets done. It feels like nobody here realizes how lifesaving this could be!!!!
It's because of the relative lack of population, at least on most of the BC coast. For example, a 7.7 earthquake hit the Haida Gwaii not long ago, but destroyed zero human structures and killed zero people directly. And yet it was the strongest earthquake recorded that year, and it did spawn a tsunami from what I recall (maybe wrong though). If it had hit in the Salish Sea / south Vancouver Island area instead, Victoria, Vancouver, and Seattle probably would have had severe damage, and deaths for certain. If "the big one" (a subduction quake around 9+ shallow enough to make a major tsunami) hit somewhere around the Salish Sea, it would be a catastrophe. Might lose entire communities, thousands would die, major infrastructure would fail, and the damage in terms of dollars (US or Canadian, take your pick) would be hundreds of billions. And as jgp and many other point out, the Canadian government does not take it seriously enough. The Canadian warning system is nowhere near as sophisticated as the USGS or even Mexico's. There are dikes protecting below-sea level suburbs like Richmond and Delta that have been begging for an upgrade for decades, but it somehow never gets those federal dollars, even though if those places go under the waves, it could wipe out Canada's largest port and second busiest airport in one stroke. It's a disaster that would make Hurricane Katrina look like a kids' pool party, but none of our right wing, left wing, or centrist political parties seem to take it seriously at budget time. Indeed, the mayors of Delta and Richmond wanted to go to a conferences on dike engineering in Netherlands (sensible), and the local political media got all up their ass like them doing some fact-finding on how to prevent a disaster was some sort of frivolous vacation. This is the kind of petty small-minded thinking that pervades the politics & media here. We. Are. Not. Ready.
We learn about earthquake safety since elementary school, and we also are encouraged by our landlords to have an earthquake kit. I think it’s always on most people’s minds, especially if we grew up here.
@Pomoriee if you've been to countries where they actually do earthquake safety training, you will realize that our stop drop and cover then wait 60 seconds thing is quite outdated.
Very well done. Thanks for putting in the time. I am a Portland resident obsessed with the issue of unreinforced masonry buildings. I even have a spreadsheet of them. There was an effort to require a warning sign on these structures several years ago but the city backed away from the idea when it became clear that in a city with too high rents already if Portland required the cities lowest income renters' landlords to reinforce their buildings or they'd be condemned the property owners would likely evict their tenants enmasse and sell. So these apartments and workplaces will definitely pancake when the big one happens. The city kicked the can down the road to 2038 to deal with this avoidable nightmare scenario. Fingers crosssed is not a policy.
😂😂😂😂 I lived in NW Portland when EVERY weekend there was a fire: it was arson. A different apartment every weekend. I watched a man screaming in fear for his life jump out of a 3rd story window, falling and breaking his back. All so the slumlords could evict the poor, elderly and starving students. All to do long overdue improvements and Jack the rents! Around 1980? I lived at the Altonia. I left PDX in 2000. And am so thankful for that decision!
I had a dream a few years ago, I was in Aberdeen Washington, the streets were clogged with vehicles and many buildings were across the streets, was a big quake, I couldn't drive my truck any more I yelled for everyone standing around in a daze to get to higher ground a huge wave was coming. And we all made our way to the top of the hills, about 150 feet up, then we looked at the ocean as it swept across the harbor washing the two cities away. I woke up, glad that I lived 10 miles inland. Crazy dream.
Wow bro, I had a similar one must have been 2014....water bubbling over the hills around Redmond like it was a bathtub! Last moment of the dream was staring straight up at a wave several hundred ft tall. We didn't run. And now I don't live there!
Ground liquefaction is a terrifying aspect of this kind of earthquake... imagine, you out in the garden... the ground starts shaking and then you're UNDER the garden.
That happened during the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, there are stories of survivors seeing how others were sinking into the ground that previously was solid.
Port Royal, Jamaica was hit by an earthquake in 1692. Some 2000 people were killed when the city subsided below sea level or were killed by the subsequent tsunami, and another 3000 died later from injuries or disease. Port Royal was a home for bucaneers and privateers, the real "Pirates of the Carribbean". There are stories of people who sunk into the ground by liquefaction and were trapped, still alive but half-burried. Pirates, being pirates, didn't bother trying to dig them out, but rather cut off their fingers to steal their rings.
@@mountainman5173 Of all the quakes we have had though history, Valdivia was the worst in terms of several crises that followed it. And that's why a 9.0 in Cascadia should be the worst case possible.
I grew up on the Washington Coast. A beautiful place with incredible wild shoreline beaches. I drove by the Copalis Ghost Forest every day for years while I lived there. BTW- Copalis is pronounced with a long “A” sound, as in Co- pay- lis. My last job there was helping install tsunami warning sirens in the city where I worked and lived. I retired to an inland area, where the weather was warmer and the rain was less. But I still love my PNW- the most beautiful place on earth!
Surely is, I visited other beaches which do not compare to the Pacific Northwest. Florida beach 🏖️ is nice but its missing all the trees and rock formation.
For what it's worth, the northern California coast near the Oregon border is just as beautiful and wild, with slightly less risk of a monster tsunami crashing far inland.
I experienced the 9.2 in Alaska’ 1964 quake. The food and water & power disruptions in these modern metro areas would be only part of difficulty lasting weeks, there would be massive looting to stores and business and gang crimes. Anchorage was small in 64 and the national guard easily made a presence, but this would not likely be the case in these present day cities. People should store water, and some types of foods, and at least have a camp stove knowing how to use it. In anchorage our water was snow for about a week from our yard and we slept in the car a few days and cooked on camp stove. These minimal preparation things could reduce a lot of personal suffering. Some places could take months to get utilities again. Be sure to help others out if you can, good luck.
I've seen pics and some video of that Quake and I've been through a few that were over 6.0. You must have been in an area that was lightly damaged. In the 1994 Northridge Quake we didn't have water for more than a week and forget about living in my home, because that had been "Yellow Tagged" (you could go in, but only for very short periods) like most homes in the area with two or more floors. Apartment buildings had pancaked, no power for 4 days with our house being on of a very few that had an emergency generator and therefore the only light at night once they got the huge gas main that was on fire put out. smh Some crazy times that's for sure! but I digress. LOL 🙄
@@clarenceghammjr1326 It sure was strange driving across part of the Valley and not see any other cars on the road except for one that was abandoned at what's normally a busy intersection. See the pancaked Apt Buildings was weird because I didn't know that's what happened, I just knew they looked different. I was about 2 miles from the epicenter so we got an incredible shaking. What area were you in??
I actually did a project on this in one of my geophysics classes. The danger isnt just the subduction zone causing the mega-thrust, but also the DOZENS (or more) Strike-Slip fault lines in the areas from Olympia to Bremerton also doing a sympathetic release from the megathrust. The total energy release if just half of those faults go was nightmare inducing, especially since almost ALL of my Dad's side of the family lives west of the Cascade range. Needless to say, this was 8 years ago and I have made sure that my Dad and stepmom now both have a 5-minute escape bag, rifle, ammo, and water purification stuff ready to go and he knows that the second he gets that alert they get in their little Lexus SUV with the stuff and FOOT TO THE FLOOR up to higher ground.
You know as well as I do, most of these people are not anywhere close to this prepared. The 1989 San Francisco Bay earthquake was only 6.9 and you saw that damage. And supposedly California is much more prepared for earthquakes than Washington or Oregon. When this hits, it's going to be Biblical in its destruction and deaths.
@@angelmonroy3012 Because up here in the PNW, especially up in the Foothills and peaks of the Cascades we still have multiple large critter that will happily turn you into lunch... and we also have other critters that can be turned INTO lunch with a rifle. If you're going for an unknown time up there, its always best to have a way to get protein.
@GeologyHub I think this is one of the more comprehensive videos out there of what will happen. But as someone who lives on the Washington Coast and has been heavily involved in the Cascadia Earthquake preparedness, some things to note: 1. the coastal land subsidence from 1700 was around 10 feet, and instead of just being along the coast, the subsidence continued inland for 50 or more miles but at a gradient, i.e. at the coast it dropped 10 feet, 10 miles inland it dropped 8 feet, 40 miles inland it dropped 3 or 2 feet, and 50 miles of more it might drop a foot or less. This is because the uplift that occurs between earthquakes extends inland at a decreasing rate as well. 2. The following names are pronounced: Co-pail-less, Say-lish, Will-lamb-et, Malt-gnome-muh, 3. The vast majority of cities in the Pacific northwest are located on highly liquifiable soils, especially along the coast. It's likely that more than 100,000 structures, even those built to more modern standards, are at risk of collapse. Further, many of our highways are built over highly liquifiable soils and most of our bridge foundations are not built to bedrock but have foundations resting in silt and mud, meaning they will absolutely collapse, cutting off most viable evacuation routes. 4. Many coastal communities, such as Seaside or Westport, have at most 15 minutes before the first tsunami waves arrive. 5. The latest Washington DNR modeling suggests Tsunami heights along Oregon and Washington ranging from 50 to 100 feet on average, with some specific locations reaching upwards of 150 feet or more. 6. Washington DNR modeling also indicates Tsunami waves of up to 30 feet could continue hitting the coastline up to 12 hours after the earthquake, and large swaths of the coastline will be permanently submerged by up to 15 feet of subsidence. 7. The length of shaking could last anywhere from 8 to 11 minutes, depending on how much of the 600+ mile long fault line ruptures. Recent studies suggest the rupture could propagate from north to south or south to north, and this propagation takes time, it's not instantaneous, so this greatly increases the length of shaking felt by the region. 8. The fatality estimate you show is laughably small for such a massive disaster. We are completely unprepared for such a colossal multi-region disaster, and based on the Federal Government's historic lackluster responses to much smaller regional natural disasters, including hurricanes, it's highly likely it will take many months for our completely overwhelmed federal and state governments to send any sort of substantial help to the most affected areas. Many, many people will die simply because there will be no functioning hospitals or emergency crews to rescue them, and injuries that are usually non-life threatening will become deadly without proper medication. Disease and famine are also likely to kill many in areas without proper supplies of food and contaminated water. 9. Likewise, the cost estimate of this is probably much closer to the trillion-dollar mark.... quite simply there won't be a single structure in the Pacific Northwest, mostly west of the Cascade Mountains, that will not be damaged in some way. You're looking at fully replacing probably 70% of the region's infrastructure (ports, highways, roads, bridges, railroads, dams, sewer, gas, electric, etc.), and probably 60% of buildings, and the remaining percentages will need various levels of repair. This WILL be the costliest natural disaster not only in the US, but possibly the world, especially when you factor in the tsunami damage from the overseas countries impacted by this. 10. One thing you should mention is that most of the Pacific Northwest's major hydroelectric dams are more than 50 years old and were not built to withstand such a large earthquake, and many of these will likely fail during or immediately after the earthquake, especially the large earthen dams. The catastrophic flooding resulting from these failures alone could result in tens of thousands of casualties downstream.
Good points. I think he's being careful with his estimates to not scaremonger too much, but yeah the general unpreparedness of the region and unfortunate topography is definitely an issue. Also, some of the bedrock isn't even that stable, considering much of Puget Sound is on old glacial deposits and some of the area (like parts of Bellingham) is on kinda unstable sandstone. Not to mention how unaware much of the population is that this is even a risk. Its honestly mindblowing how many factors combine to make the potential risk of this off the charts.
@@StuffandThings_ Agree 100%, but unfortunately this is the type of disaster that you can't really afford to underestimate. It's just too large and impactful to not be honest about how bad it could be. People need to be scared, they should be, but then they also need to be told how they can prepare for it and reduce their risks. Those two things go hand in hand so that people don't get overwhelmed and feel there's no hope. There are a lot of things that you can do to increase your chances of survival. And yeah, you're absolutely correct with our bedrock being kinda weak. In Coastal Washington, we have a lot of layered and crumbly siltstones and sandstones that are not very well consolidated or strong. In fact, DNR has documented hundreds if not thousands of massive deep-seated landslides that extend well into these bedrock layers that can be found up and down the coastline that date back to the 1700 earthquake or even earlier earthquakes. But at least anchoring buildings and bridges into these more solid layers would give the structures a better chance to survive, as opposed to what we have now, which is either no deep foundation at all, or just short wood pilings driven into overly saturated mud and silt that will completely liquify, even in a smaller 7.0 earthquake.
Very interesting insight. Having only lived on the west coast as a kid I had never heard of this, only about the San Andreas Fault now have some new content to look into. If you don’t mind me asking, with the information the video and your comment have shared in addition to your experience in preparing for such an event, what is being done to prepare and at least try to manage some of the effects this event might have? Probably an answer worth its own video, but I’m genuinely curious about what could be done
@@CCRhorst That's a good question. At the personal level, there's a number of things you can do: 1. Don't live in a Tsunami zone or downstream of a major dam. If you do live there, move out if you can, especially if you live more than a 15-minute walk from high ground. 2. If you live in a tsunami zone but do live within a 15-minute walk of high ground, know your evacuation route, and practice it at least once a year, twice is ideal. Also know the best routes to leave your home after an earthquake. Do not expect to be able to drive anywhere after a Cascadia level earthquake, the roads will be destroyed and power poles and trees toppled over them. 3. If you live in an urban populated area, have a 2-week minimum supply of non-perishable food and water for each family member. If you live in a rural area, especially near the coast, then bump that up to a minimum 1-month supply of food and water for each family member. My family has a 2-month supply of both food and water for each family member because we live in a rural area near the coast and recognize that the Puget Sound and populated urban areas will be prioritized for emergency response long before outlying rural areas will be. We've even been told by emergency management officials not to expect any help for up to 2 months. 4. Have a minimum 3-day supply of non-perishable food and water in your car in case the earthquake happens while you're driving away from home. 5. If you plan a trip to the coast, choose beaches near high ground, ideally bluffs and hills that reach at least 100 feet in height and have a road or trail that you can hike to get up them. 6. At home and in your car, have up to date first aid kits, functioning emergency radios, lots of extra batteries, and even solar chargeable battery packs for cell phones. Normal or emergency blankets and tents are also important in case you need to sleep outside. 7. Have an emergency generator if you think your house will survive the earthquake, and enough fuel to supply the generator for 2 weeks. Rooftop solar could also greatly help. 8. If you have gas, have a tool by your outdoor gas valve so that you can immediately turn it off after the earthquake. 9. Get to know your neighbors and form a mutual aid network. A trusted group of people who can pool resources and come to each other's aid will be critical after the earthquake (and tsunami if you live near the coast). 10. Earthquake proof your home, both the furniture and the structure itself. Bolting tall furniture to walls is cheap and can prevent you from getting crushed. Structural retrofits to the building itself, however, can be very expensive, but also sometimes it can be very simple depending on how your home was built. Doing so may not save your home from being condemned, but it could prevent it from fully collapsing and trapping you inside. 11. Have a firearm or weapon to protect yourself and your family. I'm not a fan of weapons in general, but you can assume after such a horrible event people will be desperate for food and supplies and will loot and pillage until law and order can be restored. Urban areas will fare better since that will be the main area of focus of state and federal responses. Rural areas may be lawless for up to 2 months. During the earthquake: 1. If you're driving, immediately pull over to the side of the road. BUT, if you're under a bridge, continue driving till you're past it, or if you're on top of a bridge, keep driving until you are off the bridge. 2. If you're in a building and close to an exit, leave immediately. If you're deep inside a building or on a second or third floor, shelter in place under something sturdy. Leave once shaking stops and it's safe to move again, being aware that things may still fall or collapse. 3. If your outside, stay away from buildings, trees, and power poles as these may collapse or fall. 4. If you're in a basement and live in an area with highly liquifiable soils, get out of the basement asap, even during intense shaking. Liquified soils can flood basements and set like concrete, trapping you inside. 5. In general, be aware of your surroundings, especially in cities with big buildings. If you see hazards like falling debris coming towards you, try to avoid them. 6. Don't expect to be able to stand up the entire time. The earthquake will be too intense in many areas to stay on your feet. 7. Understand that shaking may not stop for up to 11 minutes, so sheltering in place is really the best route to go. After the earthquake, here's some things to do immediately: 1. Put your cell phone in emergency power mode or just turn it off to preserve battery. It's unlikely cell service will be working for a while, so if you can't get through to people immediately, wait a day before trying again. 2. If you can, immediately cut power (at your circuit braker) and gas (at the gas meter) to your home. Electrical fires and gas fires are common after major earthquakes, so cutting both could prevent your home from burning down or blowing up. 3. If you're trapped in a building, don't move around a lot as it wastes energy, instead make tapping noises and call out. Panicking and screaming will only exhaust you, especially if you're injured. 4. If you're in a tsunami zone, immediately head to high ground the moment shaking stops. Expect no more than 15 minutes before the first tsunami wave hits the coast. Once at high ground, stay there for 24 hours minimum, a few day ideally. Tsunami waves can build one on top of the other, and DNR modeling indicates tsunami surges will continue for up to 12 hours after the earthquake. Any major aftershocks in the hours or days after could result in additional tsunamis. 5. Set up a tent away from buildings or trees near your home and gather your supplies there. Expect it to take days or longer for help to arrive. 6. If you are driving, either stay in or near your car till help arrives, or if you're near a town, venture towards the city police and fire departments. 7. If you're not injured and are abled bodied, volunteer to help with search and rescue and recovery operations. Local police, fire departments, and hospitals will be completely overwhelmed after this earthquake, and their own buildings may be destroyed. They will absolutely need all the help they can get until federal resources arrive. So volunteering to help out will go a long way to helping them deal with the overwhelming situation. Just know you may see very disturbing things that will be hard to forget. Now, all of that said, at the state and federal level, Washington and Oregon holds yearly "Cascadia Rising" events thru the Washington Emergency Managment Division, in which state and federal agencies practice a coordinated response to a predetermined Cascadia Earthquake "scenario". This includes the National Guard and US Military. The exact scenario changes each year, but it usually assumes a "moderate" event instead of a worst-case scenario. I work in state government and from what I've seen of the preparedness events so far is that they make assumptions that are overly optimistic, like that most coastal bridges will remain intact even though most are over 50 years old and not built to bedrock or to any seismic standard, or that communications will still be working immediately after the event. It makes the planning a lot easier than it will be, and that suggests they understand that planning for anything more severe is a daunting challenge at best and nearly impossible at worst. On the local level, there's a push along the coast to build vertical tsunami evacuation towers. The Ocosta School District in Westport, WA was the first west coast school to build a vertical evacuation structure into their new gym building, it can house up to 1,500 people. The Shoalwater Bay Tribe in Tokeland is also building a vertical evacuation structure. There is debate about whether these structures can truly survive the earthquake and tsunami, or if they are even tall enough. A 60-foot tsunami could still overtop them, and a 100-foot tsunami would completely envelop them. But at least they're trying to do something. It's estimated at least 60 to 70 of these evacuation structures are needed along the Washington Coast alone, with Oregon needing a similar number. Anyways, the above lists are not comprehensive, there's more stuff that you can do to prepare than what I list, and there are lots of coordination efforts being done by all levels of government. But just know that with such a giant disaster, it's really difficult to prepare for it fully and adequately.
If you live alone you might also want to have a personal locator beacon in your survival kit. Look into it to see if it's right for you. If you go hiking much it's smart to have one as well.
Thank you for the excellent video. As an architect in Oregon (now retired) for over 40 years, I became keenly aware of the risk of subduction zone earthquakes and the damage they can produce. I consider myself fortunate to have been instrumental in the reconstruction of the Portland City Hall which would have almost certainly have collapsed, killing most of the occupants. I now reside far to the north in a small community of wooden structures and am more concerned by tsunami damage than building collapse, but I have been concerned that the information available to the public has been less than adequate. Your video is short enough to keep the attention of most adults while rich enough in information to help watchers make informed decisions. I applaud your effort and highly recommend your video. I will be sharing with both my professional and personal friends and urging them to pass the link forward.
USGS and Oregon both have websites that my company used to conduct earthquake exercises based on a Cascadia Subduction Zone event. Very sobering to participate in this type of exercise. Building a business continuity plan to help mitigate the risks is a worthwhile use of your time. PS - reviewing the Japanese tsunami videos on their earthquake is breathtaking.
a large ignored factor is that much of Washingtons bridge infrastructure was built before geologist theorized the subduction zone causing major quakes.
Yeah there's a ton of masonry buildings too. Thankfully they finally took down one of the major viaducts in Seattle that was sketchy af but there's still a lot of elevated concrete highways which do not look like they would hold up well. So much of the major infrastructure is just not equipped for the level of earthquakes the region can receive.
@@andyjay729 If it was moving smoothly that would be a good thing but unfortunately rather than moving smoothly it appears to be that along the Cascadia subduction zone the Juan de Fuca plate and North American plates are generally not moving at all with respect to each other. Typically in subduction zones there is a limited region where the pressure temperatures and strength of the rocks is right for the plates to become locked which means that the areas further up and below this region continue to slide, but in the case of the Cascadia subduction zone a number of factors come together such that the area of which the fault is locked is so much larger than typical extending west of the trench along the fault junction where the thick Pleistocene sedimentary apron meets the underlying subducting slab. Based on the colloquium talk on the subject covering the newest most recently updated studies of the fault system to better quantify risks it appears that due to the combination of young subducting slab coupled with the vast amounts of the Pleistocene aged sedimentary apron which appears based on explosive charge based tomography kilometers of fully lithified sediment turned into siltstones and sandstones filling in and covering up the trench completely and even extending further out to sea along the Juan de Fuca slab. This combination means the area where the temperature pressure and friction properties allow the plate to become locked sets up a large cross section of entirely locked fault area beginning to the west of the Subduction zone trench where the sedimentary apron layers of sandstone and siltstone start out and extending all the way down into the trench and beyond to the typical depths of slab locking. That whole surface is locked at least up in Washington state and Northern Oregon, further south there are areas which have a smaller locked cross section more typical of subduction zones There have been a few ultra deep quakes occurring well below the locked zone which naturally implies the strain is still building up but thus far the large locked zone has not permitted even small releases of energy. The good news if there is any is that Cascadia as a whole tends not to usually rupture all at once based on locking as "fossil" fault escarpments in drill cores, the bad news is the huge locking cross sections mean that even a sizable partial release appears to be capable of generating upwards of magnitude 9 megathrust earthquakes. The Cascadia subduction zone thus is a fault which appears to only ever produce big quakes since once the fault starts to relock it takes a huge amount of strain to unlock it again.
Sections of i5 near downtown Seattle, concrete can literally be peeled off with your bare hands, it’s slightly crumbling and exposed rebar in some areas. That bridge is sketchy. I wonder how the floating bridges would hold up in a tsunami and if lake Washington would get a bunch of salt water in it.
The Alaska megathrust quake in 1964 caused the then-new Space Needle in Seattle to wobble about a thousand miles south of the epicenter. That's something to think about with Cascadia (San Diego is about a thousand miles south of Seattle)...
You reminded me of the vids I saw when first looking at quakes. They were laying it out like a huge chasm would develop and Indiana would suddenly have beachfront property. Last weekend, I felt my brick apt bldg swaying. Nervous.
Thanks for this informative video. I currently live 45 minutes from Lincoln City, and this Cascadia quake has been a common topic for years. It's not a matter of "if" anymore, but "when."
When? Within a few years from now. Why? Messages from Heaven to present day prophets (for example, Luz de Maria) have said that the great earthquake in California will happen during the great tribulations and that the long awaited time has finally arrived now in recent messages.
@@hyeminkwun9523 Orthodox monks predicted it would happen when Russia invades Turkey after they close the strait due a war in Ukraine. They said Erdogan would become leader of Turkey and become ousted by a more pro western party. There would be a pandemic with a vaccine they said not to take. During this time Greece would create a digital id system (already here) and build a highway system between Domokos and Lamia (already built). A highway built in Turkey (either already done or close) will be used by the armies on their way to the city (Constantinople) where the Turks will be sent back to the apple tree (exiled). America is kept out of the conflicts because a volcano erupts in the center of America and the coasts are flooded due to America not repenting. Monasteries have been built in places the Lord commanded to receive the survivors. Many will come to Christ (Muslims) following these events which induce a short golden age before the end. Look up Saint Paisios' prophecies and the channel church of the eternal logos has a video on this.
I live in North Portland, the toxic fume hazard is actually even worse as there is a railroad "cut" from north to south on the peninsula and none of our bridges are seismically rated for a Cascadia subduction event. This means that every single person in this area will be unable to drive to or from the area, nor will emergency supplies via any sort of vehicle be able to reach us. The railroad companies - who are responsible for a lot of the bridge maintenance - know this and choose to do nothing, as it will be cheaper for them to plow the tracks afterwards than it would to put in proper bridges. It is a very frustrating position to be in. We have neighborhood organizations trying to fight the good fight, but we haven't been gaining much traction or support. 😞
Wow! My son is going to college in the area. He’s in Beaverton. But, I’m unfamiliar with the area, so I have no idea if he’d be stuck. The metro area seems pretty densely populated, you’d think the municipalities would have some concrete plans to deal with these dangers. I hate having to hope that he just “gets lucky” if something happens.
@@erinmcdonald7781 I'll preface this by saying that I don't work in related fields, nor do I study earthquakes, emergency response, or land topography. But I also live in the Beaverton area (I'm also new here), and have done some small bits of research to try to better understand the surroundings. For the most part, Beaverton seems to sit in the middle of somewhat of a horseshoe-shaped range of mountains/hills that are 200ft+ tall, where the Willamette and Columbia rivers are on the other side of some of those mountains/hills. The opening of the "horseshoe" of mountains is towards the South, where there are much taller mountains to the West (ocean-side). There also appears to be a few roads that can make it far-enough South to be able to move further inland without crossing any bridges over rivers (though there may be some land/highway bridges that likely won't be standing - not sure how necessary those bridges would be for evacuation, though). With that being said, I may have very-well missed something while looking into this, but it doesn't look like the Beaverton area would be "stuck" in the sense of being stranded due to bridge collapse/flooding. Though, it may take quite a lot of time for everyone in this area to make their way out just from how much of the population would likely be trying to evacuate inland all at once. On that note, I'm not familiar at all with the soil, or with how liquefication may effect the terrain, roads, etc. But compared to downtown Portland or more-coastal cities, the Beaverton/Hillsboro area seems safer (with a lower-case 's' - such a big earthquake/tsunami would undoubtedly still affect the area heavily). At least, just by looking at the topography of the surrounding land in comparison to rivers/bodies of water. Again, take this all with a couple of grains of salt. But I would say, if anything, just recommend to your son to have a plan for during and after, and have a stock of emergency supplies. But at least regarding evacuation, if he would want to, I don't think he (or me/my family) would be truly stuck/stranded with no way out, and likewise for land supplies to come in, even if it takes some time.
Make no mistake. Almost every month when I used to live in ol' Stumptown was, "Could it be this year?" I wonder if it will be in my lifetime ... I made it to the end. I love hearing a no-nonsense discussion and diagram of the moment-to-moment phenomena that surely will be the Cascadia Event.
Native Americans keep oral accounts and stories of what happened, there was a rather old National Geographic documentary that looked into the Banda Aceh tsunami and mentioned this Cascadian megathrust earthquake....
Have a coffee! I live on the Salish Sea and both megathrust and smaller local fault quakes and subsequent tsunamis and slope failures are a concern. Local faults can produce mag7 quakes. Nick Zentner's channel had "Lucinda Leonard - Tsunami in the Salish Sea", Prof Leonard from UVIC, presentation about some of these risks.
I was on the phone with a FEMA official in DC discussing the planning for a training event for the SAR K9's when discussing the Big One, he said it would be so horrific he hoped he was dead when it happened! Both Washington and Oregon have plans for "temporary" alternate capitals far inland at Yakima and Bend when it happens.
Perhaps they have updated it, but the FEMA documents on this event used to basically say "there is no disaster response possible to this event that will substantially change the outcome". Basically, the scale of the disaster would be so large and widespread, that to significantly impact things they would need a logistical capability that would exceed the resources of the entire agency.
Excellent reporting!! Graphics are on point. Narrative is too. I was a child in Seattle when an earthquake woke me and my siblings. Its good you are reinforcing this to the world, thank you!!
Thank you for this video, and thank you EarthquakeSim too. I;ve seen other videos about the damage from a Cascadia MegaThrust event, and none of these videos seems to suggest anything less than a catastrophe. This is one reason I left the West Coast in 2011, and live in SouthWest Virginia now. here I just have to watch out for flooding and the occasional weaker Tornado. And I will take these, seeing the land destroyed, trees fallen, and so many buildings lost, well... Of course we waited until the End! Thank you for the huge effort to write, film, work out the donated clips from EarthquakeSim, and the editing. I am sure we all appreciate what work went into this one!
literally, hundreds of hours of work to obtain the video materials you saw here :) and years of preparation. But we are so happy to be able to share this information with the world! Greetings from Chicago!
When picking out our house (WA state, Salish Sea area) we specifically looked at hypothetical tsunami and inundation maps before choosing where to live, as well as picking a house built in the late 90s when building codes were updated with earthquakes in mind. The problem is sooooo many of the houses, buildings, roads, bridges were built in the 1950-70s in the region, before the threat of a major earthquake and tsunami was well understood. And upgrading and retrofitting has been a painfully slow and expensive process. The region as a whole is not ready, even though we all know now that this is still a possibility.
I learned of this story during a tv series seversl years ago. The 1700 incident was identified by Japanese records, and the work of a local professor. Looking into why the dead forest had occured he found evidence of a tsunami, and followed it through. An amazing and frightening discovery, the result of which was to introduce a tsunami warning system and escape routes for the area. A fascinating series How the Earth was Made. Im not a scientist but I do take an interest in such things. Thanks for this edition 👍👍👍🇬🇧
Thank you. This video should be required viewing for ANYONE living in the Pacific Northwest. I live near Sacramento, and I didn't realize how damaging it would be in my area. I also have lots of family in Humboldt, and it would be devastating for them.
WA DNR, Geology Section, has some recently updated TH-cam’s illustrating likely models, with both heights and current videos. They cut off before the Georgia Strait Islands and somewhere south of the Tacoma Narrows.
Thanks as always, Geology Hub, for covering this terrifying subject. I hope that everyone in the region will be prepared and educated when it happens. I cannot emphasize this enough! Shoutout to EarthquakeSim for these visualizations! I hope you can make more videos like this.
Its not terrifying. Be prepared, if possible live in a reinforced building or do your best to reinforce your house. The Police, and Fire Departments in the whole area are constantly training to be ready. Hospitals Universities motels etc hold Earthquake drills at least twice a month. So do not be terrified, be prepared. This does not have to be a surprise.
@@magnumserpentine6444 Preparation is key when it comes to earthquakes. Reinforcing your home and knowing what to do in the event of an earthquake can make all the difference. It’s reassuring to know that our emergency services are always training and that community institutions are taking this seriously. Let's all take steps to be as ready as possible. :)
That's crazy, I grew up in Oregon and spent most of my life there, and never heard about this. Given the numbers, there is a decent chance of this happening within our lifetimes, causing massive devastation and damage.
Not surprising to me. Who would move there if they knew it could literally collapse, stranding and/or killing everyone? That would be bad for business.
I live 25km nw of the mendocino triple juncture. We have frequent earthquakes from the fault lines on the Gorda plate. I was looking at Goldfinger’s animations of historical subduction ruptures, and you can see how often cascadia triggers the san andreas. Nick Zentner has great lectures on youtube on cascada quakes and volcanoes. This was very well done - thanks!
Thank-you for keeping people apprised of this. We're overdue for a large event in this area. Governments, first responders, and citizens need to be informed and prepared.
Remember people, don't be scared be prepared. Make sure you have a week's worth of water sitting on Standby and food on Standby. Make sure you have a few continentally plans and place. Make sure you have an easy and fast safe way to get out of the city
@@donnievance1942 There's plenty of evidence out there of past Tsunamis 800 to 1000 feet high. You really think the 200 foot estimate is accurate? Apparently you know nothing about Geology. The Alaskan tsunami in 1958 was over 1,700 tall.
My husband and I were traveling last spring. In New Zealand they were talking about how many quakes they had (something like 50-80 per day!). The person we were talking to said they don't bother to get up for anything less than a level 5 because they think it's just a bus going by. 🤪
That's what growing up in the Los Angeles area was like. If an Earthquake hit it had to be at least a 4.5 - 5.0 to get us out of bed. The scene in the movie "Independence Day" with Will Smith and his character's wife are awakened in the morning by what they thought was an earthquake, but it was less than a 6 so they went back to sleep is exactly how my GF and I acted while we both lived there. LOL.
Thank you SO MUCH @earthquakesim As someone who's family has lived up and down the west coast for generations, I've always just accepted it would be catastrophic. But this was terrifyingly informative, and important. I'll be sure to share it around. Thank you again! ❤
I appreciate this long form. I am going to watch it again - I live in the area. I comment and like as often as I come by. I would love to give you support but I live on a sub-poverty pension. So I am giving all the support I can and I will say you do excellent work, great production values, clear voice, understandable but still technical (well done) and I greatly appreciate and thank you for your work. Cheers!
Missed the part where the wave would be even worse because many areas close to the coast would sink by a few feet as well. This happened in the fukishima quake where parts sank upwards of 6 feet which amplified the destruction and make the seawalls fail.
my sister’s husband is an engineer living in Burnaby (beside Vancouver) and he’s adamant that in this scenario the city of Richmond (also beside Vancouver) would almost completely sink underwater, not great!
Your videos are never too long. Living just southerly of the Mendocino triangle, this is great info. I trust your calculations. I will need to run to the nearest open field from the towering redwoods outside my door. Thank you.
I love your channel! Thank you very much for the daily dose of geology knowledge and/or news🙏 My father was a geologist and your content consistently takes me back to more innocent times; always a pleasure!
Thanks for making this. I live 50 miles north of Seattle not far from the Salish Sea. I live well above sea level though not too far from a major river. I don't think I'd see any flooding where I live though, I can't imagine how much destruction there will be closer to the coastline. Locally here they did a test to see if a sunami hits how bad the town I live next to would be hit and there are some islands with one ( Camano) blocking the town from the sea so they didn't think we would get too much flooding there. I hope this never happens for 100's more years. When it does its going to be bad. Especially in Seattle with a lot of old buildings. They are supposed to be fixing any old structures so they will be ready for any large earthquakes so I hope they get it done before anything happens. Theres a reason I wont live alone the coastline overlooking the ocean or the inland seas or along a river Or on a steel hilside for that matter. I'm not too far from that huge landslide that happened not many years ago and wiped out a small community and killed a lot of people.
Not all wars are preventable. Appeasement is a 'giving tree' policy. It is sacrificing a limb to buy the time to fortify the trunk. Sometimes not fighting carries heavier, often total costs.
War. What is it good for! Absolutely... Alluminum Plastic Anti-bioltics Nuclear reactors Radio Trains Cars Space travel Prosthetics Internet Space research The existence of your country Your existence Etc Etc... Fact is, you owe EVERYTHING to war, including your life. Take a look around you, literally everything you see(without even seeing it myself) is a product of war. ALL OF IT. So why would you want to prevent war? You should be TRYING to make war. If you want a better life, war is what you NEED. Because you are not going get any advancements without war. Without war you will stagnate, then die, without ever achieving anything. Someone lied to you.
I very much appreciate the results here from the work you put into it. It’s past time to stop worrying about the Big One on the San Andreas Fault, and give the Cascadia Fault Zone its proper attention. There is time still to inform and support preparation and harm reduction necessary.🤨
I don't think one should stop worrying about the San Andreas Fault so much as improve preparation strategies in BOTH areas. There is a significant population difference in these two areas, so though Cascadia would likely be a worse scenario geologically, the potential population impacts would likely be similar.
Cool video I watched the whole thing! I’d say im glad i dont live near Seattle.. but I basically live on the San Andreas fault😅 I’d rather deal with wildfires instead of tsunamis though
As someone who lives in Australia, the idea of people blissfully living somewhere that the ground could literally collapse beneath them at any moment seems weird
Yeah. Like tens of millions of people can just get up, leave their homes and jobs, and go somewhere else. Problem solved. Good thinking. You're an f'ing genius.
I moved out of the UK a the start of this year to a place which experiences regular tremors. My perspective is that we cannot prevent mother nature doing her thing, but to suffer under that which we DO have a chance to prevent... seems weird. I would much sooner take whatever nature wants to throw at me than end up a victim of that which happens on the streets of the UK daily. I am far happier now than I have ever been. If I perish by an act of nature, then at least the last days of my life were lived in happiness, and not fear/frustration. Each to their own.
I live in CA for about 3 years. I was always fearful of going over the large bridges thinking now would be a terrible time for an Earthquake to occur. I can deal with hurricanes, blizzards and tornadoes, but earthquakes scare the S*** out of me.
It's incredibly unlikely an earthquake would happen while you're on a bridge. The most likely place is at home, next most likely is at work. Prepare for those scenarios, everything else is pointless.
@@wintermiller4845 I no longer live there. I also knew it was very unlikely to happen while I crossed a bridge. But the bridge was the only scenario in which I had no plan for other than hope to survive the plunge.
It's more than bad. We only have a few highways going to the Oregon coast. One highway going the length of the coast. And Oregon coast population is low income, relying on tourism. The long term effects of a disaster would be decades.
I live in the UK, and the last tsunami to hit us was in the 1600s. The documentary should still be on TH-cam. There are only a couple of pieces of evidence that survived time that showed it happened. It's worth a watch. But our natural disasters are the uncommon EF0, rare weak or strong EF1 or rarer EF2, floods, and landslides in the odd location, strong gales, and finally lightning in the odd location.
A tsunami scares me a lot more than an earthquake. Well...on second thought, Hwy 101 would be damaged. Probably wipe out bridges too. Either one would suck.
A lot of damage will occur from the earthquake rendering travel by car in the downtown Seattle area impossible. Just the amount of debris and glass on the streets will be an issue. Gas line ruptures will cause fires and toxic fumes, water and waste line ruptures… Electricity will be cut off so all refrigeration will stop. It’s why people are told to have extra food and water. Of course, what they don’t say, is the power won’t be coming back on for a very long time. One bad storm in Texas and Oklahoma can keep the power out for a week to 10 days. A tornado or hurricane can wipe out electric for months. An earthquake of that size and a tsunamis? No one is living in the hardest hit areas with modern conveniences for a very long time.
How many coastal pnw bridges have been reinforced to withstand a large quake. They rebuilt and reinforced hundreds of bridges and freeway overpasses after the 94 Northridge quake
@@brokenwrench404 Hwy 101 is a mess. There are sunken grade areas everywhere, even before an earthquake. I know they updated Thomas Creek Bridge within the past few years.
101 is already falling into the ocean. As is the land. There will be zero towns left on the Oregon Coast. Imagine being on the North Bend Bridge or the Astoria Bridge while the quake hits.
Thank you for.making this video. We live in Portland so this information could save our lives. Where do we sign up for earthquake alerts? That few minutes of time can make all the difference for us. Thank you.
@@loganforgey4281 With Earthquakes the initial p wave is often undetectable by humans. As soon as it is detected by seismometers an emergency warning will be sent to every phone in the area and you will have less than a minute (depending on where you live) to get to a safer location
The fact the trees ended up in the ocean is not horrifying, it is nature. You get to see the remains of trees from thousands years ago. That is amazing.
I used to live in rockaway beach oregon where tsunami evacuation route signs are everywhere, so I bought a hat with tsunami survival instructions. It says, "Run like hell!"
Lincoln City is where my family would frequently stay when we went to the coast growing up, out on the sandspit on the seaward edge of the bay. Out there, we were told we had almost zero chance of making the evacuation zone in time if the big one hit (at most 15 min from the time of shaking to get off the low-lying spit to high ground). I didn't exactly sleep easily to the sounds of the crashing waves, but there was also a sort of tranquility in knowing there was very little I could do about it in the moment if it happened.
Just returned from a week in Lincoln City. I was in awe of all of the cliff side homes where there landslides have wiped out the entire rock face. These houses were almost touching the edge and still occupied- I have no idea how these people sleep well.
@BlessedByTheMoon Around Newport, I've seen homes with the cliffs eroded out from under the corners yet somehow still occupied. I remember looking up from the beach at one particularly nice-looking home, but the back door was hanging over the precipice and had drainage pipes with multiple feet exposed to the open air and thinking "how do these people afford insurance?" I checked, and the house was for sale! I could see the underside of the foundations!
This is one of the best I’ve seen. I’d also like to se a video(s) that takes areas, such as Vancouver, the Sunshine Peninsula,, the islands, the Washington coast, or Seattle, and go more specifically into a close up map of areas potentially impacted. Like, how high up or how many miles inland does one need to be to have self and home safe?
I live near south Pasadena and that earthquake that happened a few days ago for some reason really traumatized me because I never felt one like that before. It felt like someone tossed the building up and down. Really on edge now.
In WA, we are warned that in Puget Sound and the Salish Sea, the tsunami waves will bounce around over and over. So the damage may be greater than expected in those areas, and occur for longer than anticipated.
Greetings from Los Angeles, where we've been shaking and rolling around lately, as you know! I love your videos. Very informative and never too long. Much appreciated!! Thank you! 💜
This was amazing, thank you very much. I have tried to watch a number of clips on this subject but get tired with all the sensationalism, disaster movie inserts etc etc.. When I saw you were covering this, made me smile. I knew it would be as factual as possible with full disclosure on opinions etc etc.. Will definitely check out the sponsor channel. :)
I live in the hills of Skagit county Washington, directly east of Victoria BC. This entire area, in the US and Canada, is indeed one of the most beautiful and otherwise best places in the world ro live. I'm not near water, and live in a solid wood house at 140 feet elevation. Still, who knows This may or may not happen in any of our lifetimes.
Agreed, the northern bits of the Salish Sea are truly stunning and a great place to live. Still though, that level of shaking is no joke and some of the area is on somewhat unstable bedrock (the Chuckanut sandstone comes to mind) so I wouldn't get cocky. Worth the risk but there's still lots of risk to be had no matter where you are in the PNW.
I live in the Willamette Valley near Salem. I have a few weeks of food and some ceramic filters for rain or creek water. I have candles, solar panels and a rechargeable battery, and a wind up radio. I have talked with my neighbors on having something for an emergency such as this. I do not think a single one of them has listened to me. You did not mention the fact that the majority of freeway overpasses on I-5 will fall, making truck delivery of supplies impossible for a fair amount of time.
Hey! I live in Lincoln City. It's WILD to see it featured in a video, especially a simulation like this. Thanks for the daily dose of existential dread 👌
Sorry to hear of the dread. However, I would like to suggest that these estimates and educational content result is constructive planning for tsunami and fire evacuation routes. In the case of Japanese March 2011 events and the Lahaina Fire disaster of August 2023, the towns involved have significant differences in evacuation planning. Japanese towns were able to save thousands of lives due to pre-existing evacuation routing. US and state level funding has not materialized to make these evacuation routes. This lack was identified as a major contributing cause to the 115 dead in Lahaina during the Aug 8 2023 fire disaster. I urge local city councils and county councils to fund the construction of appropriate road and routing to insure that evacuation routes are not blocked or slowed during a major disaster.
The Sumatra region since the year 1000 had many earthquakes above 8, much more active than Cascadia region... Even in the Mentawai segment since 1797, it has not released its energy ... Maybe that can be discussed.
The difference is that the PNW is highly unprepared, as people aren't really aware of how bad things can get cause its been so quiet. Sumatra has constant warnings about how dangerous its geology is so everybody is well aware now. Though that being said, any highly populated region with 8+ earthquakes is quite dangerous.
A big thanks to EarthquakeSim for sponsoring this video. Knowledge is power. Used to live on the West Coast. Kinda glad I don’t anymore, would much rather be an ‘out of province contact’. Still, have heard that very powerful quakes have historically struck midwest Canada/US. The topic fascinates me.
Wow. Thanks for this sobering notification. I knew it was geologically active here. Had no idea it was THAT potentially violent. Would the damage reach as far as Spokane? Wouldn't such a destructive quake ignite fires all over the place too? Downed electrical lines, gas stations, volitile chemical storage all being high likelyhood culprits.
In worse case situations it is important to already have a plan. Supplies on hand and support within the community. How long can you just wait for someone to show up with help? You will need a safe place to sleep, to eat, even going to the bathroom can become a real health issue quickly due to contamination. Contaminated drinking water can kill you in a few days. 😵💫
@@laurabarber6697 Seen disaster reports from hurricanes, tornadoes, etc where it took a week or more for help to reach some isolated areas... being prepared for the potential can be helpful. Then one hopes and prays the supplies will not be needed.
@@laurabarber6697 I'm stocked for about six months, with the spare capacity to carry about two neighbors. I can weather most likely events as long as i'm not directly destroyed.
I met someone who lives in Vancouver, BC this last Thursday (August 1st, 2024). She worked at Aritzia's corporate office, located next to Vancouver's Downtown Eastside (DTES) neighborhood, one of the areas in the City of Vancouver likely to get hit hardest when a major earthquake strikes the Vancouver area. To my understanding, the threat to DTES comes from the concentration of unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs) there, rather than anything inherent in the underlying geology. It's an area of Vancouver I'd definitely feel concerned about in the event that a large earthquake struck, even for those living and working in buildings that are not URMs, due to the risk that those parts of the city could get cut off from the rest of the city due to the damage. The study I read about the threat to Vancouver, in particular the risk to the buildings in DTES and Chinatown, used a M7.3 crustal earthquake under the Strait of Georgia as the scenario, so a Cascadia megathrust would play out differently. I don't remember which study it was exactly, but the City of Vancouver did cite it and use it in their official planning. The Cascadia megathrust scenario calling for MMI VI damage in Vancouver seems reassuring insofar as the city proper seems concerned (including the aforementioned DTES/Chinatown area), but the prolonged period in which the city would experience shaking at this intensity might still be a concern. A smaller earthquake on a local fault, like the aforementioned M7.3 scenario, would cause higher MMI shaking in Vancouver compared to a Cascadia megathrust, albeit of shorter duration. While Vancouver is the furthest-away of the major Cascadian cities from the Cascadia subduction zone, which probably helps somewhat, I know the angle of subduction is shallower in the area of Vancouver and Seattle (compared to the steeper angle of subduction in Oregon and northern California). Some of the scenarios I've seen for a Cascadia megathrust earthquake mention the glacially-derived soils in the Seattle area proving problematic, by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. I'm not sure if the soils in the Vancouver area are similar to those of Seattle, but the area was glaciated during the last glacial period (just as all of the interior, low-lying regions between the Coast Ranges and Cascades and/or the volcanic arc from Olympia northwards were). Also, if the next Cascadia megathrust earthquake were to start near the southern end of the fault and proceed to rupture the entire length of the Cascadia subduction zone, I also read that damage in Seattle (and other major cities on the northern end of the subduction zone like Vancouver) could be worse due to the seismic waves "piling up" as the fault ruptures northwards, compared to if the rupture started directly off of the Washington coast (seismic waves won't pile up as much before they hit Seattle).
@sbclaridge + I've never heard of "seismic waves piling up" I grew up in Southern Cali from the 60-90s so earthquake preparedness was drilled into me at a young age. Being 61 it's nice to know I still have much to learn🤔, because I was starting to get bored 😂. ;)
@@chefscorner7063 Summarizing the effects of some supercomputer simulations that were run on the shaking from a Cascadia megathrust earthquake, Erin Wirth said in "Understanding 'The Big One' - Estimating Shaking in Cascadia's Next Great Earthquake" (from the AAAS annual meeting in 2020): "Earthquakes with hypocenters far away from Seattle (i.e., the earthquake ruptures towards Seattle) can result in ground shaking that is 10x stronger than earthquakes with hypocenters directly beneath Seattle (i.e., the earthquake ruptures away from Seattle)."
@@chefscorner7063 I recently came back to this post about a month-and-a-half later. Apparently the USGS refers to this "seismic waves piling up" effect as earthquake directivity, the focusing of wave energy along the fault in the direction of the fault rupture.
The Neskowin trees were on sand, so they probably also had liquifaction settling. And Copalis is usually pronounced Coh-pay-liss. Although the locals disagree, we found out some of our streets were misspelled and fixed them.... Also, thank you for this right before I'm going to spend a week on a beach on Oregon near Lincoln City. x-x And the Willamette River is usually pronounce 'Wil-lahm-eht' not 'Will-uh-met'.
This video was solely sponsored by the TH-cam channel, EarthquakeSim. Be sure to subscribe to his channel at www.youtube.com/@EarthquakeSim, where he makes numerous videos revolving around earthquake damage simulations and earthquake education!
This video took 3 days to make, so I hope that you appreciated it.
I like EarthquakeSim ... thanks!
I do appreciate it 👍🏻
Thumbs up for the longer format, but I like the shorter ones too.
Good job. One of your best. Damage in New Zealand would also be expected from such an event. We have had major tsunami damage here from the 1960s Southern Chilean subduction trench suck down event for example. And that is almost as far away from us as Cascadia.
Also the bottom bathometry of the Kermadec trench provides a barrel for tsunami from that direction to focus on our eastern seaboard. ❤
No! not the geology hub sign! 😂
There is a Japanese painting that shows a tsunami that came out of nowhere: it was caused by the 1700 quake. There is a ghost forest at Nisqually, Washington, that was created then also.
Also folklore passed down in Native American tribes about the tsunami moving inland.
In Japan, this tsunami was known as "an orphan tsunami" as it was (strangely to locals) not associated with any earthquake people on the islands could feel.
The 1700 earthquake generated what was called an “orphan tsunami” in Japan, since it came without warning and without an earthquake that they could feel. Clear records of this orphan tsunami still exist, and once the year of the subduction earthquake was determined from tree rings from the corresponding ghost forests on the northwestern American coast, they could be matched up exactly enough that it was clearly the same event. The Japanese records gave the height of their tsunami as well as the date and time of day it arrived. Calculating back, it was possible to fix the time of the earthquake at 9 AM. Hence GeologyHub’s using this time in his simulation.
They called it an "orphan wave".
I call Orphan Tsunami as the name of next band
The spookiest part of this is how the 1700 quake was only confirmed via Japanese "orphan tsunami" records, Native oral accounts, and eventually studies of the coastal "ghost forests". It's like the analog of blind people finding an elephant.
The famous painting "the great wave" is possibly based on this event
cant tell your peoples history if you're murdered. at the time there were 10 million native am. spread throughout the landscape. im sure many witnessed it
Actually the karuk have a story of when the rivers ran backwards
@@manuelferreira4345 Actually, you say, to "Native oral accounts."
@westrim "in Klamath" became "actually" with auto correct 🤣
My sister in law lives in Victoria. I was told never bring up the conversation of earthquakes. I don't understand why someone would want to live there if they were so afraid.
I live on Van Isle as well. I badly want to leave here and have for some years but I am retired, live on a sub-poverty pension and thus have no resources for any kind of move. So there is one reason why someone lives here and does not move. Moreover the population of the region affected by this subduction zone must be 20 million. Where do you suggest we all go and how do the vast majority pay for it.
It is very simple for someone like you to tell us what to do, isn't it?
There are very few places on Earth where you're not in danger of being impacted by a natural disaster of some sort.
Mental illness
It’s the most gorgeous place in North America.
Much of Victoria is on bed rock. Should be mostly ok. The Empress will be gone though.
As an Oregon resident, I have visited Neskowin beach several times. The last time I was there I timed how long it would take to briskly walk to safety in the event of a future megathrust earthquake. It took me, an able-bodied geologist 15 minutes to get to the highway without trespassing over private property. Not even considering likely subsidence and liquefaction, I found 15 minutes to escape the tsunamis too long and haven't been back since.
Wow this is a great perspective
If you were running full sprint through private property you could probably make it.
Any healthy adult with enough sense to run from an imminent tsunami might be okay.
Grandma and lil Timmy are screwed though…
Channel your inner woodie Guthrie and turn that sign around. On the other side it don't say nothing.
@@byronhenry6518yeah but what's the point of running back towards Coastal freeway when the entire Mountain Side would get liquefied😂😂😂
@@NICKRITZER Good point lol
You mentioned the difference between a normal wave and a tsunami wave.
About 35 years ago, while living in Japan for a year, I was on the beach, walking directly at the water's edge. There were normal waves coming in all the time, until suddenly a different looking wave appeared. It was not very high; later I learned that this tsunami wave had a height of 15 cm or 6 inches. It pulled me off my feet and started dragging me out to sea. Only because the water was not very deep was I able to dig my hands into the sand, remain at the beach and ride out this little wave. I was very surprised and rather impressed.
Nam to się zdarzyło w Acapulco
I'd say you were pretty lucky as well ☘️
I live in a flood prone area. Just 12 inches of water can sweep a car off the road. Six inches is plenty to knock an adult off their feet, less for a child. Growing up, the street would flood a few inches. My parents warned me we could not cross the water, because even that little bit will sweep us away down the storm drain. Moving water is so powerful.
A 6 inch tsunami?
@@rebeccaw8820 the Japanese coast experiences frequent tsunamis. Most are very small, like the one I experienced, others can be monstrous, like the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami 11 March 2011 that caused a nuclear disaster.
The Pacific is geologically a highly active region. Japan is located in a very active place, sitting on 3 or 4 different tectonic plates that all move independently. While size 6 earthquakes at land od sea are rare along the Pacific coast of North America, they occur almost weekly in Japan and naturally smaller ones even more.
Thanks for using my 3D earthquake simulations and for spreading awareness about this topic! The Big One expected on the San Andreas fault would affect an area 10 times smaller, just to put it in perspective. The potential impact is staggering, and it’s clear that understanding and preparing for this event is crucial. Thanks for shedding light on such an important issue!
A large Cascadia mega-thrust earthquake can act as a trigger for an overdue San Andreas earthquake, which would devastate the entire US West coast at the same time. A San Andreas event is also overdue.
A quote from Wikipedia: "A 2008 paper, studying past earthquakes along the Pacific coastal zone, found a correlation in time between seismic events on the northern San Andreas Fault and the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone (which stretches from Vancouver Island to northern California). Scientists believe quakes on the Cascadia subduction zone may have triggered most of the major quakes on the northern San Andreas within the past 3,000 years. The evidence also shows the rupture direction going from north to south in each of these time-correlated events."
Has anybody modeled the effects and casualties from such a a dual earthquake event?
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault
Great job!!!
Excellent work @EarthquakeSim , combined with @GeologyHub for this very informative video. Couldn't thank you fellas enough for this... 🙂
Well done! Great collaboration!
Most of Oregon coast population is in the worst places for tsunami. And everywhere geologists look, they find evidence of tsunamis.
We should rename it the Tsunami Coast.
I wonder how the homeless encampments in Portland would fare?
Mountainous
@@mfreel1657 -
You do know that Portland isn't on the coast, right?
So long as they aren't next to a brick building in Old Town/China Town, or above a ruptured gas line, or under an overpass, just fine, at least initially. Collapsing tents don't cause much in the way of injury. 😃
There are homeless people in every major metro area in the USA. Rent is stupidly high in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and San Diego, so that majorly contributes to the issue on the West Coast.
Dont forget the great house steal of 2005-08 that left many homeless.
What I love about your content is that you cover topics with enough details to get the point across while being succinct in your delivery. No wasted time or words on baseless conjecture or fumbled words. You don't repeat things unnecessarily and your videos are digestible in size. I know longer videos are hard, and I wanted to thank you for your time and effort. Your one of my favorite channels because of how you deliver the information.
I fully agree
Totally agree with everything you said!!
Well said! I absolutely agree.
The text is excellent, but that reading voice, is that artificial?
Sort of a verbose way to compliment succinctness 🤪
I live in the Phoenix area. The initial disaster would be bad enough, but how about all the various items that come into the West Coast that would NOT be available for months and possibly years while the Ports are being reconstructed? This type of disaster would really adversely affect the entire USA.
For the pnw yes but not so much SoCal
Truth. What About Shipping’s Channel and others like Wendover Productions have pointed out that the US actually has relatively few seaports that handle container shipping. Take out any one and that severely impacts logistics.
@@brokenwrench404Alledgedly this earthquake could cause the "big one" at the San Andreas fault.
@@ZSTE Yellowstone too?
@@SkibidisconesYellowstone is extremely unlikely to ever have another large eruption. I'd worry about the other 2 super volcanos that are nearly as large as Yellowstone in California and New Mexico.
What really scares me about this is how unprepared the PNW is. Japan and Chile have both had colossal earthquakes, however both were well seasoned to dealing with such a disaster and were able to weather the storm, albeit with great cost. Many people in the PNW however seem to be rather oblivious to how destructive the regions geology can be, seeing as the past couple centuries have been remarkably quiet. We don't really get frequent large magnitude earthquakes to remind us of how unstable our region really is, and St Helens is the only volcano anyone remembers going off and it was in a very fortunate position to not cause much damage despite all the hype it receives. Many people would be caught very off guard and many structures in the region do not look like they would hold up well (the amount of brick and concrete buildings in such an earthquake prone area is kind of shocking). Needless to say, the unpreparedness alone would magnify the effects of this, and the region would take many many years to truly recover.
This is why I'm constantly angry at my government here in BC. In Mexico, they have an alert system that warns them of impending earthquakes. Here in BC, they refuse to set up detection buoys that could give us in BC 80-100 seconds of notice to get to a safer spot. They always say that they are working on it but it never gets done. It feels like nobody here realizes how lifesaving this could be!!!!
It's because of the relative lack of population, at least on most of the BC coast. For example, a 7.7 earthquake hit the Haida Gwaii not long ago, but destroyed zero human structures and killed zero people directly. And yet it was the strongest earthquake recorded that year, and it did spawn a tsunami from what I recall (maybe wrong though).
If it had hit in the Salish Sea / south Vancouver Island area instead, Victoria, Vancouver, and Seattle probably would have had severe damage, and deaths for certain.
If "the big one" (a subduction quake around 9+ shallow enough to make a major tsunami) hit somewhere around the Salish Sea, it would be a catastrophe. Might lose entire communities, thousands would die, major infrastructure would fail, and the damage in terms of dollars (US or Canadian, take your pick) would be hundreds of billions.
And as jgp and many other point out, the Canadian government does not take it seriously enough. The Canadian warning system is nowhere near as sophisticated as the USGS or even Mexico's. There are dikes protecting below-sea level suburbs like Richmond and Delta that have been begging for an upgrade for decades, but it somehow never gets those federal dollars, even though if those places go under the waves, it could wipe out Canada's largest port and second busiest airport in one stroke. It's a disaster that would make Hurricane Katrina look like a kids' pool party, but none of our right wing, left wing, or centrist political parties seem to take it seriously at budget time.
Indeed, the mayors of Delta and Richmond wanted to go to a conferences on dike engineering in Netherlands (sensible), and the local political media got all up their ass like them doing some fact-finding on how to prevent a disaster was some sort of frivolous vacation. This is the kind of petty small-minded thinking that pervades the politics & media here.
We. Are. Not. Ready.
They’re too focused on trying to wish their worries away rather install warning systems and bring awareness of future earthquakes
We learn about earthquake safety since elementary school, and we also are encouraged by our landlords to have an earthquake kit. I think it’s always on most people’s minds, especially if we grew up here.
@Pomoriee if you've been to countries where they actually do earthquake safety training, you will realize that our stop drop and cover then wait 60 seconds thing is quite outdated.
I'll never get tired of having this existential fear, periodically reinforced!
Dave Wilkerson said when China or Japan gets a 9 we will get it too
Little surprised there was no mention of the likelihood of the tsunami risk for Japan et al, in the event of another Cascadia event.
@@Fubetuckhe literally mentions Japan specifically at 10:58, at the end of a list of non-US countries affected
@@stellasdoesstuff Guess I literally missed it.
Happened to me in Alaska 2018, they aren’t lying
Very well done. Thanks for putting in the time. I am a Portland resident obsessed with the issue of unreinforced masonry buildings. I even have a spreadsheet of them. There was an effort to require a warning sign on these structures several years ago but the city backed away from the idea when it became clear that in a city with too high rents already if Portland required the cities lowest income renters' landlords to reinforce their buildings or they'd be condemned the property owners would likely evict their tenants enmasse and sell. So these apartments and workplaces will definitely pancake when the big one happens. The city kicked the can down the road to 2038 to deal with this avoidable nightmare scenario. Fingers crosssed is not a policy.
😂😂😂😂 I lived in NW Portland when EVERY weekend there was a fire: it was arson. A different apartment every weekend. I watched a man screaming in fear for his life jump out of a 3rd story window, falling and breaking his back. All so the slumlords could evict the poor, elderly and starving students. All to do long overdue improvements and Jack the rents! Around 1980? I lived at the Altonia. I left PDX in 2000. And am so thankful for that decision!
OMG if you are that worried move into a wall tent.
Realistic estimates put the total between 4 to 6 million and maybe twice that.
@@laurabarber6697 - Portland is quite gentrified and fancy now compared to 1980.
@@natcalverley4344 there is no reason to be unneighborly. I am not specifically worried for me.
Fun fact: we also call this ‘the big one’ in the pnw!
Great work as always! I would love if you could look at the origin of the Oregon table rocks
As someone who lives in California, you should call it "the mother of all big ones"
Yes. Nice
Nick Zentner has a great PNW geology channel on here.
@@TheBeingRealNick is the gold standard.
Everywhere calls it the big one
I had a dream a few years ago, I was in Aberdeen Washington, the streets were clogged with vehicles and many buildings were across the streets, was a big quake, I couldn't drive my truck any more I yelled for everyone standing around in a daze to get to higher ground a huge wave was coming. And we all made our way to the top of the hills, about 150 feet up, then we looked at the ocean as it swept across the harbor washing the two cities away. I woke up, glad that I lived 10 miles inland. Crazy dream.
A prophecy! A side note- I had a dream but mine involved lots of dust. Planes were falling out of the sky, crashing into one another.
You two need to reduce nighttime sweets and go decaf 😂😂😂😂😂
@@clarenceghammjr1326 Go play in traffic.
Wow bro, I had a similar one must have been 2014....water bubbling over the hills around Redmond like it was a bathtub! Last moment of the dream was staring straight up at a wave several hundred ft tall. We didn't run. And now I don't live there!
Ground liquefaction is a terrifying aspect of this kind of earthquake... imagine, you out in the garden... the ground starts shaking and then you're UNDER the garden.
That happened during the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, there are stories of survivors seeing how others were sinking into the ground that previously was solid.
Port Royal, Jamaica was hit by an earthquake in 1692. Some 2000 people were killed when the city subsided below sea level or were killed by the subsequent tsunami, and another 3000 died later from injuries or disease.
Port Royal was a home for bucaneers and privateers, the real "Pirates of the Carribbean". There are stories of people who sunk into the ground by liquefaction and were trapped, still alive but half-burried. Pirates, being pirates, didn't bother trying to dig them out, but rather cut off their fingers to steal their rings.
@@EduardoEscarez Jeez... gives me the willies... *shudders*
@@mountainman5173 Of all the quakes we have had though history, Valdivia was the worst in terms of several crises that followed it. And that's why a 9.0 in Cascadia should be the worst case possible.
I grew up on the Washington Coast. A beautiful place with incredible wild shoreline beaches. I drove by the Copalis Ghost Forest every day for years while I lived there. BTW- Copalis is pronounced with a long “A” sound, as in Co- pay- lis. My last job there was helping install tsunami warning sirens in the city where I worked and lived. I retired to an inland area, where the weather was warmer and the rain was less. But I still love my PNW- the most beautiful place on earth!
Surely is, I visited other beaches which do not compare to the Pacific Northwest. Florida beach 🏖️ is nice but its missing all the trees and rock formation.
Hopefully smaller quakes takes stress off
It truly is God's Country! ❤❤❤
For what it's worth, the northern California coast near the Oregon border is just as beautiful and wild, with slightly less risk of a monster tsunami crashing far inland.
BTW - Puyallup... PEW-wal- UP
12:35 That sign is fantastic. The artist should be proud. "I need you to convey the terror of inevitable death in a stick figure." Captured.
Those signs are all over the Oregon coast, and are typically accompanied by a similar blue sign that has an arrow labeled "Tsunami Evacuation Route".
I experienced the 9.2 in Alaska’ 1964 quake. The food and water & power disruptions in these modern metro areas would be only part of difficulty lasting weeks, there would be massive looting to stores and business and gang crimes. Anchorage was small in 64 and the national guard easily made a presence, but this would not likely be the case in these present day cities. People should store water, and some types of foods, and at least have a camp stove knowing how to use it. In anchorage our water was snow for about a week from our yard and we slept in the car a few days and cooked on camp stove. These minimal preparation things could reduce a lot of personal suffering. Some places could take months to get utilities again. Be sure to help others out if you can, good luck.
I've seen pics and some video of that Quake and I've been through a few that were over 6.0. You must have been in an area that was lightly damaged. In the 1994 Northridge Quake we didn't have water for more than a week and forget about living in my home, because that had been "Yellow Tagged" (you could go in, but only for very short periods) like most homes in the area with two or more floors. Apartment buildings had pancaked, no power for 4 days with our house being on of a very few that had an emergency generator and therefore the only light at night once they got the huge gas main that was on fire put out. smh Some crazy times that's for sure! but I digress. LOL 🙄
Weaponry is part of a survival plan
@@chefscorner7063same, was unimaginable, and you know the pictures cannot give the full scope of damage. The downtown pictures were fascinating
@@clarenceghammjr1326 It sure was strange driving across part of the Valley and not see any other cars on the road except for one that was abandoned at what's normally a busy intersection. See the pancaked Apt Buildings was weird because I didn't know that's what happened, I just knew they looked different. I was about 2 miles from the epicenter so we got an incredible shaking. What area were you in??
I actually did a project on this in one of my geophysics classes. The danger isnt just the subduction zone causing the mega-thrust, but also the DOZENS (or more) Strike-Slip fault lines in the areas from Olympia to Bremerton also doing a sympathetic release from the megathrust. The total energy release if just half of those faults go was nightmare inducing, especially since almost ALL of my Dad's side of the family lives west of the Cascade range. Needless to say, this was 8 years ago and I have made sure that my Dad and stepmom now both have a 5-minute escape bag, rifle, ammo, and water purification stuff ready to go and he knows that the second he gets that alert they get in their little Lexus SUV with the stuff and FOOT TO THE FLOOR up to higher ground.
You know as well as I do, most of these people are not anywhere close to this prepared. The 1989 San Francisco Bay earthquake was only 6.9 and you saw that damage. And supposedly California is much more prepared for earthquakes than Washington or Oregon. When this hits, it's going to be Biblical in its destruction and deaths.
why a rifle 🥸
Emotional support
@@angelmonroy3012 Because up here in the PNW, especially up in the Foothills and peaks of the Cascades we still have multiple large critter that will happily turn you into lunch... and we also have other critters that can be turned INTO lunch with a rifle. If you're going for an unknown time up there, its always best to have a way to get protein.
@@renegadeceoalso in such a chaotic scenario it's important to protect yourself if other survivors get violent
@GeologyHub I think this is one of the more comprehensive videos out there of what will happen. But as someone who lives on the Washington Coast and has been heavily involved in the Cascadia Earthquake preparedness, some things to note:
1. the coastal land subsidence from 1700 was around 10 feet, and instead of just being along the coast, the subsidence continued inland for 50 or more miles but at a gradient, i.e. at the coast it dropped 10 feet, 10 miles inland it dropped 8 feet, 40 miles inland it dropped 3 or 2 feet, and 50 miles of more it might drop a foot or less. This is because the uplift that occurs between earthquakes extends inland at a decreasing rate as well.
2. The following names are pronounced: Co-pail-less, Say-lish, Will-lamb-et, Malt-gnome-muh,
3. The vast majority of cities in the Pacific northwest are located on highly liquifiable soils, especially along the coast. It's likely that more than 100,000 structures, even those built to more modern standards, are at risk of collapse. Further, many of our highways are built over highly liquifiable soils and most of our bridge foundations are not built to bedrock but have foundations resting in silt and mud, meaning they will absolutely collapse, cutting off most viable evacuation routes.
4. Many coastal communities, such as Seaside or Westport, have at most 15 minutes before the first tsunami waves arrive.
5. The latest Washington DNR modeling suggests Tsunami heights along Oregon and Washington ranging from 50 to 100 feet on average, with some specific locations reaching upwards of 150 feet or more.
6. Washington DNR modeling also indicates Tsunami waves of up to 30 feet could continue hitting the coastline up to 12 hours after the earthquake, and large swaths of the coastline will be permanently submerged by up to 15 feet of subsidence.
7. The length of shaking could last anywhere from 8 to 11 minutes, depending on how much of the 600+ mile long fault line ruptures. Recent studies suggest the rupture could propagate from north to south or south to north, and this propagation takes time, it's not instantaneous, so this greatly increases the length of shaking felt by the region.
8. The fatality estimate you show is laughably small for such a massive disaster. We are completely unprepared for such a colossal multi-region disaster, and based on the Federal Government's historic lackluster responses to much smaller regional natural disasters, including hurricanes, it's highly likely it will take many months for our completely overwhelmed federal and state governments to send any sort of substantial help to the most affected areas. Many, many people will die simply because there will be no functioning hospitals or emergency crews to rescue them, and injuries that are usually non-life threatening will become deadly without proper medication. Disease and famine are also likely to kill many in areas without proper supplies of food and contaminated water.
9. Likewise, the cost estimate of this is probably much closer to the trillion-dollar mark.... quite simply there won't be a single structure in the Pacific Northwest, mostly west of the Cascade Mountains, that will not be damaged in some way. You're looking at fully replacing probably 70% of the region's infrastructure (ports, highways, roads, bridges, railroads, dams, sewer, gas, electric, etc.), and probably 60% of buildings, and the remaining percentages will need various levels of repair. This WILL be the costliest natural disaster not only in the US, but possibly the world, especially when you factor in the tsunami damage from the overseas countries impacted by this.
10. One thing you should mention is that most of the Pacific Northwest's major hydroelectric dams are more than 50 years old and were not built to withstand such a large earthquake, and many of these will likely fail during or immediately after the earthquake, especially the large earthen dams. The catastrophic flooding resulting from these failures alone could result in tens of thousands of casualties downstream.
Good points. I think he's being careful with his estimates to not scaremonger too much, but yeah the general unpreparedness of the region and unfortunate topography is definitely an issue. Also, some of the bedrock isn't even that stable, considering much of Puget Sound is on old glacial deposits and some of the area (like parts of Bellingham) is on kinda unstable sandstone. Not to mention how unaware much of the population is that this is even a risk. Its honestly mindblowing how many factors combine to make the potential risk of this off the charts.
@@StuffandThings_ Agree 100%, but unfortunately this is the type of disaster that you can't really afford to underestimate. It's just too large and impactful to not be honest about how bad it could be. People need to be scared, they should be, but then they also need to be told how they can prepare for it and reduce their risks. Those two things go hand in hand so that people don't get overwhelmed and feel there's no hope. There are a lot of things that you can do to increase your chances of survival.
And yeah, you're absolutely correct with our bedrock being kinda weak. In Coastal Washington, we have a lot of layered and crumbly siltstones and sandstones that are not very well consolidated or strong. In fact, DNR has documented hundreds if not thousands of massive deep-seated landslides that extend well into these bedrock layers that can be found up and down the coastline that date back to the 1700 earthquake or even earlier earthquakes. But at least anchoring buildings and bridges into these more solid layers would give the structures a better chance to survive, as opposed to what we have now, which is either no deep foundation at all, or just short wood pilings driven into overly saturated mud and silt that will completely liquify, even in a smaller 7.0 earthquake.
Very interesting insight. Having only lived on the west coast as a kid I had never heard of this, only about the San Andreas Fault now have some new content to look into. If you don’t mind me asking, with the information the video and your comment have shared in addition to your experience in preparing for such an event, what is being done to prepare and at least try to manage some of the effects this event might have? Probably an answer worth its own video, but I’m genuinely curious about what could be done
@@CCRhorst That's a good question. At the personal level, there's a number of things you can do:
1. Don't live in a Tsunami zone or downstream of a major dam. If you do live there, move out if you can, especially if you live more than a 15-minute walk from high ground.
2. If you live in a tsunami zone but do live within a 15-minute walk of high ground, know your evacuation route, and practice it at least once a year, twice is ideal. Also know the best routes to leave your home after an earthquake. Do not expect to be able to drive anywhere after a Cascadia level earthquake, the roads will be destroyed and power poles and trees toppled over them.
3. If you live in an urban populated area, have a 2-week minimum supply of non-perishable food and water for each family member. If you live in a rural area, especially near the coast, then bump that up to a minimum 1-month supply of food and water for each family member. My family has a 2-month supply of both food and water for each family member because we live in a rural area near the coast and recognize that the Puget Sound and populated urban areas will be prioritized for emergency response long before outlying rural areas will be. We've even been told by emergency management officials not to expect any help for up to 2 months.
4. Have a minimum 3-day supply of non-perishable food and water in your car in case the earthquake happens while you're driving away from home.
5. If you plan a trip to the coast, choose beaches near high ground, ideally bluffs and hills that reach at least 100 feet in height and have a road or trail that you can hike to get up them.
6. At home and in your car, have up to date first aid kits, functioning emergency radios, lots of extra batteries, and even solar chargeable battery packs for cell phones. Normal or emergency blankets and tents are also important in case you need to sleep outside.
7. Have an emergency generator if you think your house will survive the earthquake, and enough fuel to supply the generator for 2 weeks. Rooftop solar could also greatly help.
8. If you have gas, have a tool by your outdoor gas valve so that you can immediately turn it off after the earthquake.
9. Get to know your neighbors and form a mutual aid network. A trusted group of people who can pool resources and come to each other's aid will be critical after the earthquake (and tsunami if you live near the coast).
10. Earthquake proof your home, both the furniture and the structure itself. Bolting tall furniture to walls is cheap and can prevent you from getting crushed. Structural retrofits to the building itself, however, can be very expensive, but also sometimes it can be very simple depending on how your home was built. Doing so may not save your home from being condemned, but it could prevent it from fully collapsing and trapping you inside.
11. Have a firearm or weapon to protect yourself and your family. I'm not a fan of weapons in general, but you can assume after such a horrible event people will be desperate for food and supplies and will loot and pillage until law and order can be restored. Urban areas will fare better since that will be the main area of focus of state and federal responses. Rural areas may be lawless for up to 2 months.
During the earthquake:
1. If you're driving, immediately pull over to the side of the road. BUT, if you're under a bridge, continue driving till you're past it, or if you're on top of a bridge, keep driving until you are off the bridge.
2. If you're in a building and close to an exit, leave immediately. If you're deep inside a building or on a second or third floor, shelter in place under something sturdy. Leave once shaking stops and it's safe to move again, being aware that things may still fall or collapse.
3. If your outside, stay away from buildings, trees, and power poles as these may collapse or fall.
4. If you're in a basement and live in an area with highly liquifiable soils, get out of the basement asap, even during intense shaking. Liquified soils can flood basements and set like concrete, trapping you inside.
5. In general, be aware of your surroundings, especially in cities with big buildings. If you see hazards like falling debris coming towards you, try to avoid them.
6. Don't expect to be able to stand up the entire time. The earthquake will be too intense in many areas to stay on your feet.
7. Understand that shaking may not stop for up to 11 minutes, so sheltering in place is really the best route to go.
After the earthquake, here's some things to do immediately:
1. Put your cell phone in emergency power mode or just turn it off to preserve battery. It's unlikely cell service will be working for a while, so if you can't get through to people immediately, wait a day before trying again.
2. If you can, immediately cut power (at your circuit braker) and gas (at the gas meter) to your home. Electrical fires and gas fires are common after major earthquakes, so cutting both could prevent your home from burning down or blowing up.
3. If you're trapped in a building, don't move around a lot as it wastes energy, instead make tapping noises and call out. Panicking and screaming will only exhaust you, especially if you're injured.
4. If you're in a tsunami zone, immediately head to high ground the moment shaking stops. Expect no more than 15 minutes before the first tsunami wave hits the coast. Once at high ground, stay there for 24 hours minimum, a few day ideally. Tsunami waves can build one on top of the other, and DNR modeling indicates tsunami surges will continue for up to 12 hours after the earthquake. Any major aftershocks in the hours or days after could result in additional tsunamis.
5. Set up a tent away from buildings or trees near your home and gather your supplies there. Expect it to take days or longer for help to arrive.
6. If you are driving, either stay in or near your car till help arrives, or if you're near a town, venture towards the city police and fire departments.
7. If you're not injured and are abled bodied, volunteer to help with search and rescue and recovery operations. Local police, fire departments, and hospitals will be completely overwhelmed after this earthquake, and their own buildings may be destroyed. They will absolutely need all the help they can get until federal resources arrive. So volunteering to help out will go a long way to helping them deal with the overwhelming situation. Just know you may see very disturbing things that will be hard to forget.
Now, all of that said, at the state and federal level, Washington and Oregon holds yearly "Cascadia Rising" events thru the Washington Emergency Managment Division, in which state and federal agencies practice a coordinated response to a predetermined Cascadia Earthquake "scenario". This includes the National Guard and US Military. The exact scenario changes each year, but it usually assumes a "moderate" event instead of a worst-case scenario.
I work in state government and from what I've seen of the preparedness events so far is that they make assumptions that are overly optimistic, like that most coastal bridges will remain intact even though most are over 50 years old and not built to bedrock or to any seismic standard, or that communications will still be working immediately after the event. It makes the planning a lot easier than it will be, and that suggests they understand that planning for anything more severe is a daunting challenge at best and nearly impossible at worst.
On the local level, there's a push along the coast to build vertical tsunami evacuation towers. The Ocosta School District in Westport, WA was the first west coast school to build a vertical evacuation structure into their new gym building, it can house up to 1,500 people. The Shoalwater Bay Tribe in Tokeland is also building a vertical evacuation structure. There is debate about whether these structures can truly survive the earthquake and tsunami, or if they are even tall enough. A 60-foot tsunami could still overtop them, and a 100-foot tsunami would completely envelop them. But at least they're trying to do something. It's estimated at least 60 to 70 of these evacuation structures are needed along the Washington Coast alone, with Oregon needing a similar number.
Anyways, the above lists are not comprehensive, there's more stuff that you can do to prepare than what I list, and there are lots of coordination efforts being done by all levels of government. But just know that with such a giant disaster, it's really difficult to prepare for it fully and adequately.
If you live alone you might also want to have a personal locator beacon in your survival kit. Look into it to see if it's right for you. If you go hiking much it's smart to have one as well.
San Andreas Fault: "I'm about to let off the 'Big One' very soon."
Cascadia Subduction Zone: "Hold my fault line."
Glad to see a video on this topic.
🤣🤣🤣
New Madrid: sit down kids!
Thank you for the excellent video. As an architect in Oregon (now retired) for over 40 years, I became keenly aware of the risk of subduction zone earthquakes and the damage they can produce. I consider myself fortunate to have been instrumental in the reconstruction of the Portland City Hall which would have almost certainly have collapsed, killing most of the occupants. I now reside far to the north in a small community of wooden structures and am more concerned by tsunami damage than building collapse, but I have been concerned that the information available to the public has been less than adequate. Your video is short enough to keep the attention of most adults while rich enough in information to help watchers make informed decisions. I applaud your effort and highly recommend your video. I will be sharing with both my professional and personal friends and urging them to pass the link forward.
USGS and Oregon both have websites that my company used to conduct earthquake exercises based on a Cascadia Subduction Zone event. Very sobering to participate in this type of exercise. Building a business continuity plan to help mitigate the risks is a worthwhile use of your time.
PS - reviewing the Japanese tsunami videos on their earthquake is breathtaking.
a large ignored factor is that much of Washingtons bridge infrastructure was built before geologist theorized the subduction zone causing major quakes.
Seriously, for a while people thought the PNW only got minor quakes, somehow the Cascadia subduction zone was moving smoothly.
Yeah there's a ton of masonry buildings too. Thankfully they finally took down one of the major viaducts in Seattle that was sketchy af but there's still a lot of elevated concrete highways which do not look like they would hold up well. So much of the major infrastructure is just not equipped for the level of earthquakes the region can receive.
@@andyjay729 If it was moving smoothly that would be a good thing but unfortunately rather than moving smoothly it appears to be that along the Cascadia subduction zone the Juan de Fuca plate and North American plates are generally not moving at all with respect to each other. Typically in subduction zones there is a limited region where the pressure temperatures and strength of the rocks is right for the plates to become locked which means that the areas further up and below this region continue to slide, but in the case of the Cascadia subduction zone a number of factors come together such that the area of which the fault is locked is so much larger than typical extending west of the trench along the fault junction where the thick Pleistocene sedimentary apron meets the underlying subducting slab.
Based on the colloquium talk on the subject covering the newest most recently updated studies of the fault system to better quantify risks it appears that due to the combination of young subducting slab coupled with the vast amounts of the Pleistocene aged sedimentary apron which appears based on explosive charge based tomography kilometers of fully lithified sediment turned into siltstones and sandstones filling in and covering up the trench completely and even extending further out to sea along the Juan de Fuca slab. This combination means the area where the temperature pressure and friction properties allow the plate to become locked sets up a large cross section of entirely locked fault area beginning to the west of the Subduction zone trench where the sedimentary apron layers of sandstone and siltstone start out and extending all the way down into the trench and beyond to the typical depths of slab locking.
That whole surface is locked at least up in Washington state and Northern Oregon, further south there are areas which have a smaller locked cross section more typical of subduction zones There have been a few ultra deep quakes occurring well below the locked zone which naturally implies the strain is still building up but thus far the large locked zone has not permitted even small releases of energy.
The good news if there is any is that Cascadia as a whole tends not to usually rupture all at once based on locking as "fossil" fault escarpments in drill cores, the bad news is the huge locking cross sections mean that even a sizable partial release appears to be capable of generating upwards of magnitude 9 megathrust earthquakes. The Cascadia subduction zone thus is a fault which appears to only ever produce big quakes since once the fault starts to relock it takes a huge amount of strain to unlock it again.
Sections of i5 near downtown Seattle, concrete can literally be peeled off with your bare hands, it’s slightly crumbling and exposed rebar in some areas. That bridge is sketchy. I wonder how the floating bridges would hold up in a tsunami and if lake Washington would get a bunch of salt water in it.
The Alaska megathrust quake in 1964 caused the then-new Space Needle in Seattle to wobble about a thousand miles south of the epicenter. That's something to think about with Cascadia (San Diego is about a thousand miles south of Seattle)...
I have been pondering this eventuality for like 30 years now. Knowing it could happen at any moment. It will be a tragedy of epic proportions.
It's like when you're experiencing a bereavement. Remember to cherish what you have every day. We forget though!
You reminded me of the vids I saw when first looking at quakes. They were laying it out like a huge chasm would develop and Indiana would suddenly have beachfront property. Last weekend, I felt my brick apt bldg swaying. Nervous.
Life happens.
major foreshocks willl happen first
@@ghostrider-be9ek There is no reason that will happen.
Thanks for this informative video. I currently live 45 minutes from Lincoln City, and this Cascadia quake has been a common topic for years. It's not a matter of "if" anymore, but "when."
When? Within a few years from now. Why? Messages from Heaven to present day prophets (for example, Luz de Maria) have said that the great earthquake in California will happen during the great tribulations and that the long awaited time has finally arrived now in recent messages.
@@hyeminkwun9523 🤦🏻♀️
Look dude, we have had people predicted this stuff every 5 years, it's bound to happen sometime @@hyeminkwun9523
@@hyeminkwun9523 Orthodox monks predicted it would happen when Russia invades Turkey after they close the strait due a war in Ukraine. They said Erdogan would become leader of Turkey and become ousted by a more pro western party. There would be a pandemic with a vaccine they said not to take. During this time Greece would create a digital id system (already here) and build a highway system between Domokos and Lamia (already built). A highway built in Turkey (either already done or close) will be used by the armies on their way to the city (Constantinople) where the Turks will be sent back to the apple tree (exiled). America is kept out of the conflicts because a volcano erupts in the center of America and the coasts are flooded due to America not repenting. Monasteries have been built in places the Lord commanded to receive the survivors. Many will come to Christ (Muslims) following these events which induce a short golden age before the end. Look up Saint Paisios' prophecies and the channel church of the eternal logos has a video on this.
I live in North Portland, the toxic fume hazard is actually even worse as there is a railroad "cut" from north to south on the peninsula and none of our bridges are seismically rated for a Cascadia subduction event. This means that every single person in this area will be unable to drive to or from the area, nor will emergency supplies via any sort of vehicle be able to reach us. The railroad companies - who are responsible for a lot of the bridge maintenance - know this and choose to do nothing, as it will be cheaper for them to plow the tracks afterwards than it would to put in proper bridges. It is a very frustrating position to be in. We have neighborhood organizations trying to fight the good fight, but we haven't been gaining much traction or support. 😞
Wow! My son is going to college in the area. He’s in Beaverton. But, I’m unfamiliar with the area, so I have no idea if he’d be stuck.
The metro area seems pretty densely populated, you’d think the municipalities would have some concrete plans to deal with these dangers. I hate having to hope that he just “gets lucky” if something happens.
@@erinmcdonald7781 I'll preface this by saying that I don't work in related fields, nor do I study earthquakes, emergency response, or land topography. But I also live in the Beaverton area (I'm also new here), and have done some small bits of research to try to better understand the surroundings.
For the most part, Beaverton seems to sit in the middle of somewhat of a horseshoe-shaped range of mountains/hills that are 200ft+ tall, where the Willamette and Columbia rivers are on the other side of some of those mountains/hills. The opening of the "horseshoe" of mountains is towards the South, where there are much taller mountains to the West (ocean-side). There also appears to be a few roads that can make it far-enough South to be able to move further inland without crossing any bridges over rivers (though there may be some land/highway bridges that likely won't be standing - not sure how necessary those bridges would be for evacuation, though).
With that being said, I may have very-well missed something while looking into this, but it doesn't look like the Beaverton area would be "stuck" in the sense of being stranded due to bridge collapse/flooding. Though, it may take quite a lot of time for everyone in this area to make their way out just from how much of the population would likely be trying to evacuate inland all at once.
On that note, I'm not familiar at all with the soil, or with how liquefication may effect the terrain, roads, etc. But compared to downtown Portland or more-coastal cities, the Beaverton/Hillsboro area seems safer (with a lower-case 's' - such a big earthquake/tsunami would undoubtedly still affect the area heavily). At least, just by looking at the topography of the surrounding land in comparison to rivers/bodies of water.
Again, take this all with a couple of grains of salt. But I would say, if anything, just recommend to your son to have a plan for during and after, and have a stock of emergency supplies. But at least regarding evacuation, if he would want to, I don't think he (or me/my family) would be truly stuck/stranded with no way out, and likewise for land supplies to come in, even if it takes some time.
Make no mistake. Almost every month when I used to live in ol' Stumptown was, "Could it be this year?" I wonder if it will be in my lifetime ...
I made it to the end. I love hearing a no-nonsense discussion and diagram of the moment-to-moment phenomena that surely will be the Cascadia Event.
Native Americans keep oral accounts and stories of what happened, there was a rather old National Geographic documentary that looked into the Banda Aceh tsunami and mentioned this Cascadian megathrust earthquake....
Could you refer me to this
Following this cus I need to know as well 😂
Have a coffee! I live on the Salish Sea and both megathrust and smaller local fault quakes and subsequent tsunamis and slope failures are a concern. Local faults can produce mag7 quakes. Nick Zentner's channel had "Lucinda Leonard - Tsunami in the Salish Sea", Prof Leonard from UVIC, presentation about some of these risks.
I was on the phone with a FEMA official in DC discussing the planning for a training event for the SAR K9's when discussing the Big One, he said it would be so horrific he hoped he was dead when it happened! Both Washington and Oregon have plans for "temporary" alternate capitals far inland at Yakima and Bend when it happens.
I live pretty far inland (New Mexico) and i fear we’d probably see effects from it here where i live.
The lawlessness will be epic
Perhaps they have updated it, but the FEMA documents on this event used to basically say "there is no disaster response possible to this event that will substantially change the outcome". Basically, the scale of the disaster would be so large and widespread, that to significantly impact things they would need a logistical capability that would exceed the resources of the entire agency.
Excellent reporting!! Graphics are on point. Narrative is too. I was a child in Seattle when an earthquake woke me and my siblings. Its good you are reinforcing this to the world, thank you!!
thank you for watching!
Thank you for this video, and thank you EarthquakeSim too. I;ve seen other videos about the damage from a Cascadia MegaThrust event, and none of these videos seems to suggest anything less than a catastrophe. This is one reason I left the West Coast in 2011, and live in SouthWest Virginia now. here I just have to watch out for flooding and the occasional weaker Tornado. And I will take these, seeing the land destroyed, trees fallen, and so many buildings lost, well...
Of course we waited until the End! Thank you for the huge effort to write, film, work out the donated clips from EarthquakeSim, and the editing. I am sure we all appreciate what work went into this one!
literally, hundreds of hours of work to obtain the video materials you saw here :) and years of preparation. But we are so happy to be able to share this information with the world! Greetings from Chicago!
@@EarthquakeSim Thank you again for all this work!
When picking out our house (WA state, Salish Sea area) we specifically looked at hypothetical tsunami and inundation maps before choosing where to live, as well as picking a house built in the late 90s when building codes were updated with earthquakes in mind. The problem is sooooo many of the houses, buildings, roads, bridges were built in the 1950-70s in the region, before the threat of a major earthquake and tsunami was well understood. And upgrading and retrofitting has been a painfully slow and expensive process. The region as a whole is not ready, even though we all know now that this is still a possibility.
I learned of this story during a tv series seversl years ago. The 1700 incident was identified by Japanese records, and the work of a local professor. Looking into why the dead forest had occured he found evidence of a tsunami, and followed it through. An amazing and frightening discovery, the result of which was to introduce a tsunami warning system and escape routes for the area. A fascinating series How the Earth was Made. Im not a scientist but I do take an interest in such things. Thanks for this edition 👍👍👍🇬🇧
Wow, a 13 minute vid from GH, that’s a first for me. I remember my parents were heartbroken when the LA Northridge Earthquake occured all the damage.!
All that and not a mention of a lahar from mount Rainer... What good is living in Tacoma if I don't get a mudslide chaser after my tsunami?
Thank you. This video should be required viewing for ANYONE living in the Pacific Northwest.
I live near Sacramento, and I didn't realize how damaging it would be in my area. I also have lots of family in Humboldt, and it would be devastating for them.
I would like to know how the tsunami would affect Puget Sound, and particularly how it would affect the aquifers of the area. 0:04
That would depend on how deep the waters there are, places like Tokyo Bay aren't in much tsunami risk since it's shallow
WA DNR, Geology Section, has some recently updated TH-cam’s illustrating likely models, with both heights and current videos. They cut off before the Georgia Strait Islands and somewhere south of the Tacoma Narrows.
Thanks as always, Geology Hub, for covering this terrifying subject. I hope that everyone in the region will be prepared and educated when it happens. I cannot emphasize this enough! Shoutout to EarthquakeSim for these visualizations! I hope you can make more videos like this.
Its not terrifying. Be prepared, if possible live in a reinforced building or do your best to reinforce your house. The Police, and Fire Departments in the whole area are constantly training to be ready. Hospitals Universities motels etc hold Earthquake drills at least twice a month. So do not be terrified, be prepared. This does not have to be a surprise.
@@magnumserpentine6444 Preparation is key when it comes to earthquakes. Reinforcing your home and knowing what to do in the event of an earthquake can make all the difference. It’s reassuring to know that our emergency services are always training and that community institutions are taking this seriously. Let's all take steps to be as ready as possible. :)
That's crazy, I grew up in Oregon and spent most of my life there, and never heard about this.
Given the numbers, there is a decent chance of this happening within our lifetimes, causing massive devastation and damage.
Not surprising to me. Who would move there if they knew it could literally collapse, stranding and/or killing everyone? That would be bad for business.
As an Oregonian watching this video, I can say the only part that brought me comfort is that I don't drive a Mustang.
Or a Tesla, two of the worst.
I live 25km nw of the mendocino triple juncture. We have frequent earthquakes from the fault lines on the Gorda plate. I was looking at Goldfinger’s animations of historical subduction ruptures, and you can see how often cascadia triggers the san andreas. Nick Zentner has great lectures on youtube on cascada quakes and volcanoes. This was very well done - thanks!
I lived in Humboldt for a minute and we didn't even get out of bed for less than a 4.5 :D
Thank-you for keeping people apprised of this. We're overdue for a large event in this area. Governments, first responders, and citizens need to be informed and prepared.
7:05 not the geology hub logo crashing down 😭
Nooopoo!!!!
Exceptionally good catch!!
Remember people, don't be scared be prepared. Make sure you have a week's worth of water sitting on Standby and food on Standby. Make sure you have a few continentally plans and place. Make sure you have an easy and fast safe way to get out of the city
And you better live at an elevation of at least 1,000 feet if you have any hopes of survival
@@Aerial.Imaging perfect 👍🏼
@@robertwhite7845 there is no where to run except up to higher elevations.
@@Joe-Skier No. The highest estimated tsunami height is 200 feet. Not very good at listening are you?
@@donnievance1942 There's plenty of evidence out there of past Tsunamis 800 to 1000 feet high. You really think the 200 foot estimate is accurate? Apparently you know nothing about Geology.
The Alaskan tsunami in 1958 was over 1,700 tall.
My husband and I were traveling last spring. In New Zealand they were talking about how many quakes they had (something like 50-80 per day!). The person we were talking to said they don't bother to get up for anything less than a level 5 because they think it's just a bus going by. 🤪
That's what growing up in the Los Angeles area was like. If an Earthquake hit it had to be at least a 4.5 - 5.0 to get us out of bed. The scene in the movie "Independence Day" with Will Smith and his character's wife are awakened in the morning by what they thought was an earthquake, but it was less than a 6 so they went back to sleep is exactly how my GF and I acted while we both lived there. LOL.
I live a few miles south of Eureka, CA. If you know what you are looking for, you can still see damage from the 1700 quake and tsunami around here.
Thank you SO MUCH @earthquakesim As someone who's family has lived up and down the west coast for generations, I've always just accepted it would be catastrophic. But this was terrifyingly informative, and important. I'll be sure to share it around. Thank you again! ❤
@a_trauma_llama2991: it is WHOSE, not who's
I appreciate this long form. I am going to watch it again - I live in the area. I comment and like as often as I come by. I would love to give you support but I live on a sub-poverty pension. So I am giving all the support I can and I will say you do excellent work, great production values, clear voice, understandable but still technical (well done) and I greatly appreciate and thank you for your work. Cheers!
I start retirement 9/17/2024, my pension and me are relocating to Bohol Philippines ✌️
Missed the part where the wave would be even worse because many areas close to the coast would sink by a few feet as well. This happened in the fukishima quake where parts sank upwards of 6 feet which amplified the destruction and make the seawalls fail.
my sister’s husband is an engineer living in Burnaby (beside Vancouver) and he’s adamant that in this scenario the city of Richmond (also beside Vancouver) would almost completely sink underwater, not great!
Your videos are never too long. Living just southerly of the Mendocino triangle, this is great info. I trust your calculations. I will need to run to the nearest open field from the towering redwoods outside my door. Thank you.
from a fella that lives in this area, thank you sir!!
I was going to comment that the EarthquakeSim content was really nice and added a lot to the video...what a perfect sponsor!
amazing video, love the longer form videos especially with how informative you are. keep it up 🥰🥰
I wish ALL his videos were 10 minutes long!!!
I love your channel! Thank you very much for the daily dose of geology knowledge and/or news🙏
My father was a geologist and your content consistently takes me back to more innocent times; always a pleasure!
"unimaginably large size"
[Proceeds to not only imagine it, but also quantify it.]
Its hard to imagine actually being in it though. Simulations are one thing but experience is a whole other.
Well done! Thank you for your dedication and hard work.
Thanks for making this. I live 50 miles north of Seattle not far from the Salish Sea. I live well above sea level though not too far from a major river. I don't think I'd see any flooding where I live though, I can't imagine how much destruction there will be closer to the coastline. Locally here they did a test to see if a sunami hits how bad the town I live next to would be hit and there are some islands with one ( Camano) blocking the town from the sea so they didn't think we would get too much flooding there. I hope this never happens for 100's more years. When it does its going to be bad. Especially in Seattle with a lot of old buildings. They are supposed to be fixing any old structures so they will be ready for any large earthquakes so I hope they get it done before anything happens. Theres a reason I wont live alone the coastline overlooking the ocean or the inland seas or along a river Or on a steel hilside for that matter. I'm not too far from that huge landslide that happened not many years ago and wiped out a small community and killed a lot of people.
War is preventable. Earthquakes are not. This is even scarier then I imagined.
Not all wars are preventable. Appeasement is a 'giving tree' policy. It is sacrificing a limb to buy the time to fortify the trunk. Sometimes not fighting carries heavier, often total costs.
there are theories about mitigating earthquakes but triggering many smaller earthquakes to release the pressure
War. What is it good for! Absolutely...
Alluminum
Plastic
Anti-bioltics
Nuclear reactors
Radio
Trains
Cars
Space travel
Prosthetics
Internet
Space research
The existence of your country
Your existence
Etc Etc...
Fact is, you owe EVERYTHING to war, including your life. Take a look around you, literally everything you see(without even seeing it myself) is a product of war. ALL OF IT.
So why would you want to prevent war? You should be TRYING to make war. If you want a better life, war is what you NEED. Because you are not going get any advancements without war. Without war you will stagnate, then die, without ever achieving anything.
Someone lied to you.
All wars are preventable if everyone involved acts without greed and cares for their fellow human. Getting to that place seems to be the problem.
@@danielduncan6806 😂😂😂
Hello from Brookings, Oregon. Very well done!
Hello from Portland - awesome video
Hello from Boonville California 👍
Hello from Eugene!
Hello from Weaverville, CA.
Hi, from Eugene, Oregon!
I very much appreciate the results here from the work you put into it.
It’s past time to stop worrying about the Big One on the San Andreas Fault, and give the Cascadia Fault Zone its proper attention.
There is time still to inform and support preparation and harm reduction necessary.🤨
I don't think one should stop worrying about the San Andreas Fault so much as improve preparation strategies in BOTH areas. There is a significant population difference in these two areas, so though Cascadia would likely be a worse scenario geologically, the potential population impacts would likely be similar.
I like that most of your videos are short. It means I am more likely to watch. This one had to be long and was worth it! Well done.
Cool video I watched the whole thing! I’d say im glad i dont live near Seattle.. but I basically live on the San Andreas fault😅 I’d rather deal with wildfires instead of tsunamis though
As someone who lives in Australia, the idea of people blissfully living somewhere that the ground could literally collapse beneath them at any moment seems weird
Yeah. Like tens of millions of people can just get up, leave their homes and jobs, and go somewhere else. Problem solved. Good thinking. You're an f'ing genius.
I moved out of the UK a the start of this year to a place which experiences regular tremors. My perspective is that we cannot prevent mother nature doing her thing, but to suffer under that which we DO have a chance to prevent... seems weird. I would much sooner take whatever nature wants to throw at me than end up a victim of that which happens on the streets of the UK daily. I am far happier now than I have ever been. If I perish by an act of nature, then at least the last days of my life were lived in happiness, and not fear/frustration. Each to their own.
It's not blissful, but everything that matters to me is here and moving is not simple. Especially because if we go East, we have wildfire risk.
I live in CA for about 3 years. I was always fearful of going over the large bridges thinking now would be a terrible time for an Earthquake to occur. I can deal with hurricanes, blizzards and tornadoes, but earthquakes scare the S*** out of me.
I still avoid the large over pass in Valencia that collapsed during the 94 Northridge quake
It's incredibly unlikely an earthquake would happen while you're on a bridge. The most likely place is at home, next most likely is at work. Prepare for those scenarios, everything else is pointless.
@@wintermiller4845 I no longer live there. I also knew it was very unlikely to happen while I crossed a bridge. But the bridge was the only scenario in which I had no plan for other than hope to survive the plunge.
This is frankly terrifying.
It's more than bad.
We only have a few highways going to the Oregon coast. One highway going the length of the coast. And Oregon coast population is low income, relying on tourism.
The long term effects of a disaster would be decades.
this was a great video!
I'm so glad this blew up and went viral for you, aswell, you really deserve all this success!
I live in the UK, and the last tsunami to hit us was in the 1600s.
The documentary should still be on TH-cam.
There are only a couple of pieces of evidence that survived time that showed it happened.
It's worth a watch.
But our natural disasters are the uncommon EF0, rare weak or strong EF1 or rarer EF2, floods, and landslides in the odd location, strong gales, and finally lightning in the odd location.
A tsunami scares me a lot more than an earthquake. Well...on second thought, Hwy 101 would be damaged. Probably wipe out bridges too. Either one would suck.
A lot of damage will occur from the earthquake rendering travel by car in the downtown Seattle area impossible. Just the amount of debris and glass on the streets will be an issue.
Gas line ruptures will cause fires and toxic fumes, water and waste line ruptures…
Electricity will be cut off so all refrigeration will stop. It’s why people are told to have extra food and water.
Of course, what they don’t say, is the power won’t be coming back on for a very long time. One bad storm in Texas and Oklahoma can keep the power out for a week to 10 days. A tornado or hurricane can wipe out electric for months.
An earthquake of that size and a tsunamis? No one is living in the hardest hit areas with modern conveniences for a very long time.
A lot of people would be stuck due to damaged bridges before the tsunami hits
How many coastal pnw bridges have been reinforced to withstand a large quake. They rebuilt and reinforced hundreds of bridges and freeway overpasses after the 94 Northridge quake
@@brokenwrench404 Hwy 101 is a mess. There are sunken grade areas everywhere, even before an earthquake. I know they updated Thomas Creek Bridge within the past few years.
101 is already falling into the ocean. As is the land. There will be zero towns left on the Oregon Coast. Imagine being on the North Bend Bridge or the Astoria Bridge while the quake hits.
Thank you for.making this video. We live in Portland so this information could save our lives. Where do we sign up for earthquake alerts? That few minutes of time can make all the difference for us. Thank you.
You won’t need an alert, we will all feel it.
"shake alert" is what your looking for.
And yes it actually works.
Only short notice if it's really close.
Longer if it's further away
@@loganforgey4281 With Earthquakes the initial p wave is often undetectable by humans. As soon as it is detected by seismometers an emergency warning will be sent to every phone in the area and you will have less than a minute (depending on where you live) to get to a safer location
Don't worry about earthquakes,the civil unrest will get you before any earthquake.
The fact the trees ended up in the ocean is not horrifying, it is nature. You get to see the remains of trees from thousands years ago. That is amazing.
I used to live in rockaway beach oregon where tsunami evacuation route signs are everywhere, so I bought a hat with tsunami survival instructions. It says, "Run like hell!"
Love the longer format video. I think a topic like this deserves more time to discuss. Cool colab with earthquakesim too.
thank you so much for watching this video! There's more to come :)
Lincoln City is where my family would frequently stay when we went to the coast growing up, out on the sandspit on the seaward edge of the bay. Out there, we were told we had almost zero chance of making the evacuation zone in time if the big one hit (at most 15 min from the time of shaking to get off the low-lying spit to high ground).
I didn't exactly sleep easily to the sounds of the crashing waves, but there was also a sort of tranquility in knowing there was very little I could do about it in the moment if it happened.
Just returned from a week in Lincoln City. I was in awe of all of the cliff side homes where there landslides have wiped out the entire rock face. These houses were almost touching the edge and still occupied- I have no idea how these people sleep well.
@BlessedByTheMoon Around Newport, I've seen homes with the cliffs eroded out from under the corners yet somehow still occupied. I remember looking up from the beach at one particularly nice-looking home, but the back door was hanging over the precipice and had drainage pipes with multiple feet exposed to the open air and thinking "how do these people afford insurance?"
I checked, and the house was for sale! I could see the underside of the foundations!
Whenever I took the expressway in SFO I always remembered the pancaked concrete slabs on the highway.
Creeped me out.
I live in the Okanagan in BC and we felt the Seattle earthquake so we'd definitely feel this one when it happens.
This is one of the best I’ve seen. I’d also like to se a video(s) that takes areas, such as Vancouver, the Sunshine Peninsula,, the islands, the Washington coast, or Seattle, and go more specifically into a close up map of areas potentially impacted. Like, how high up or how many miles inland does one need to be to have self and home safe?
I live near south Pasadena and that earthquake that happened a few days ago for some reason really traumatized me because I never felt one like that before. It felt like someone tossed the building up and down. Really on edge now.
thanks for the video and information
i have followed numerous videos on cascadia and never thought of landslides along the evacuation routes
Every few years this topic gets a resurgence of new videos and attention. So curious if this will occur in the next 60 or so years of my lifetime.
The odds are in favor of it not occurring in our lifetime.
Luckily for us, soon on a geological scale is a matter of hundreds of years.
In WA, we are warned that in Puget Sound and the Salish Sea, the tsunami waves will bounce around over and over. So the damage may be greater than expected in those areas, and occur for longer than anticipated.
Greetings from Los Angeles, where we've been shaking and rolling around lately, as you know! I love your videos. Very informative and never too long. Much appreciated!! Thank you! 💜
This was amazing, thank you very much. I have tried to watch a number of clips on this subject but get tired with all the sensationalism, disaster movie inserts etc etc.. When I saw you were covering this, made me smile. I knew it would be as factual as possible with full disclosure on opinions etc etc.. Will definitely check out the sponsor channel. :)
I live in the hills of Skagit county Washington, directly east of Victoria BC. This entire area, in the US and Canada, is indeed one of the most beautiful and otherwise best places in the world ro live. I'm not near water, and live in a solid wood house at 140 feet elevation. Still, who knows This may or may not happen in any of our lifetimes.
Agreed, the northern bits of the Salish Sea are truly stunning and a great place to live. Still though, that level of shaking is no joke and some of the area is on somewhat unstable bedrock (the Chuckanut sandstone comes to mind) so I wouldn't get cocky. Worth the risk but there's still lots of risk to be had no matter where you are in the PNW.
So early the grounds still shaking
So early that the S waves haven't even arrived yet
That’s a good one Stuff!
been waitin' 50 years for this.. can wait a bit longer.. no rush
I live in the Willamette Valley near Salem. I have a few weeks of food and some ceramic filters for rain or creek water. I have candles, solar panels and a rechargeable battery, and a wind up radio.
I have talked with my neighbors on having something for an emergency such as this. I do not think a single one of them has listened to me. You did not mention the fact that the majority of freeway overpasses on I-5 will fall, making truck delivery of supplies impossible for a fair amount of time.
Hey! I live in Lincoln City. It's WILD to see it featured in a video, especially a simulation like this. Thanks for the daily dose of existential dread 👌
Sorry to hear of the dread. However, I would like to suggest that these estimates and educational content result is constructive planning for tsunami and fire evacuation routes. In the case of Japanese March 2011 events and the Lahaina Fire disaster of August 2023, the towns involved have significant differences in evacuation planning. Japanese towns were able to save thousands of lives due to pre-existing evacuation routing. US and state level funding has not materialized to make these evacuation routes. This lack was identified as a major contributing cause to the 115 dead in Lahaina during the Aug 8 2023 fire disaster. I urge local city councils and county councils to fund the construction of appropriate road and routing to insure that evacuation routes are not blocked or slowed during a major disaster.
Thanks for putting in all that time and effort.
Thank you for taking the time to bring awareness to this very real inevitability! It's not a question of if, but when.
The Sumatra region since the year 1000 had many earthquakes above 8, much more active than Cascadia region... Even in the Mentawai segment since 1797, it has not released its energy ... Maybe that can be discussed.
Run forest run!
Sumatra is just a hotbed of geological terror .... smh
American here; I remember reading the news stories about the 2004 quake and being surprised that earthquakes could get above about 8.3.
The difference is that the PNW is highly unprepared, as people aren't really aware of how bad things can get cause its been so quiet. Sumatra has constant warnings about how dangerous its geology is so everybody is well aware now. Though that being said, any highly populated region with 8+ earthquakes is quite dangerous.
@@cmaven4762 Pretty much anywhere along highly active segments of the Ring of Fire or the Sunda subduction zone is
A big thanks to EarthquakeSim for sponsoring this video.
Knowledge is power.
Used to live on the West Coast. Kinda glad I don’t anymore, would much rather be
an ‘out of province contact’. Still, have heard that very powerful quakes have historically
struck midwest Canada/US. The topic fascinates me.
Excellent job! Thank you.
Wow. Thanks for this sobering notification. I knew it was geologically active here. Had no idea it was THAT potentially violent. Would the damage reach as far as Spokane? Wouldn't such a destructive quake ignite fires all over the place too? Downed electrical lines, gas stations, volitile chemical storage all being high likelyhood culprits.
With surrounding areas destroyed what makes you think you will get help or resources? 🤔😵💫
@@laurabarber6697 The help will come. It's a matter of when.
In worse case situations it is important to already have a plan. Supplies on hand and support within the community. How long can you just wait for someone to show up with help? You will need a safe place to sleep, to eat, even going to the bathroom can become a real health issue quickly due to contamination. Contaminated drinking water can kill you in a few days. 😵💫
@@laurabarber6697 Seen disaster reports from hurricanes, tornadoes, etc where it took a week or more for help to reach some isolated areas... being prepared for the potential can be helpful. Then one hopes and prays the supplies will not be needed.
@@laurabarber6697 I'm stocked for about six months, with the spare capacity to carry about two neighbors. I can weather most likely events as long as i'm not directly destroyed.
I met someone who lives in Vancouver, BC this last Thursday (August 1st, 2024). She worked at Aritzia's corporate office, located next to Vancouver's Downtown Eastside (DTES) neighborhood, one of the areas in the City of Vancouver likely to get hit hardest when a major earthquake strikes the Vancouver area. To my understanding, the threat to DTES comes from the concentration of unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs) there, rather than anything inherent in the underlying geology. It's an area of Vancouver I'd definitely feel concerned about in the event that a large earthquake struck, even for those living and working in buildings that are not URMs, due to the risk that those parts of the city could get cut off from the rest of the city due to the damage.
The study I read about the threat to Vancouver, in particular the risk to the buildings in DTES and Chinatown, used a M7.3 crustal earthquake under the Strait of Georgia as the scenario, so a Cascadia megathrust would play out differently. I don't remember which study it was exactly, but the City of Vancouver did cite it and use it in their official planning. The Cascadia megathrust scenario calling for MMI VI damage in Vancouver seems reassuring insofar as the city proper seems concerned (including the aforementioned DTES/Chinatown area), but the prolonged period in which the city would experience shaking at this intensity might still be a concern. A smaller earthquake on a local fault, like the aforementioned M7.3 scenario, would cause higher MMI shaking in Vancouver compared to a Cascadia megathrust, albeit of shorter duration. While Vancouver is the furthest-away of the major Cascadian cities from the Cascadia subduction zone, which probably helps somewhat, I know the angle of subduction is shallower in the area of Vancouver and Seattle (compared to the steeper angle of subduction in Oregon and northern California). Some of the scenarios I've seen for a Cascadia megathrust earthquake mention the glacially-derived soils in the Seattle area proving problematic, by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. I'm not sure if the soils in the Vancouver area are similar to those of Seattle, but the area was glaciated during the last glacial period (just as all of the interior, low-lying regions between the Coast Ranges and Cascades and/or the volcanic arc from Olympia northwards were).
Also, if the next Cascadia megathrust earthquake were to start near the southern end of the fault and proceed to rupture the entire length of the Cascadia subduction zone, I also read that damage in Seattle (and other major cities on the northern end of the subduction zone like Vancouver) could be worse due to the seismic waves "piling up" as the fault ruptures northwards, compared to if the rupture started directly off of the Washington coast (seismic waves won't pile up as much before they hit Seattle).
@sbclaridge + I've never heard of "seismic waves piling up" I grew up in Southern Cali from the 60-90s so earthquake preparedness was drilled into me at a young age. Being 61 it's nice to know I still have much to learn🤔, because I was starting to get bored 😂. ;)
@@chefscorner7063 Summarizing the effects of some supercomputer simulations that were run on the shaking from a Cascadia megathrust earthquake, Erin Wirth said in "Understanding 'The Big One' - Estimating Shaking in Cascadia's Next Great Earthquake" (from the AAAS annual meeting in 2020):
"Earthquakes with hypocenters far away from Seattle (i.e., the earthquake ruptures towards Seattle) can result in ground shaking that is 10x stronger than earthquakes with hypocenters directly beneath Seattle (i.e., the earthquake ruptures away from Seattle)."
@@chefscorner7063 I recently came back to this post about a month-and-a-half later. Apparently the USGS refers to this "seismic waves piling up" effect as earthquake directivity, the focusing of wave energy along the fault in the direction of the fault rupture.
The Neskowin trees were on sand, so they probably also had liquifaction settling. And Copalis is usually pronounced Coh-pay-liss. Although the locals disagree, we found out some of our streets were misspelled and fixed them....
Also, thank you for this right before I'm going to spend a week on a beach on Oregon near Lincoln City. x-x
And the Willamette River is usually pronounce 'Wil-lahm-eht' not 'Will-uh-met'.
I really appreciate this. I was wondering why there wasn't a video yesterday. This more than makes up for it.